5.0 Private Sector External Debt Stock

Transcription

1 5.0 Private Sector External Debt Stock

2 5.0 PRIVATE SECTOR EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK 5.1 Private Sector External Debt Stock Trend Private Sector External Debt Stock (PSED) includes both long and shortterm borrowing from affiliates (FDI related borrowing) and nonaffiliates. The PSED is largely in form of loans, debt securities, trade credits and advances, currency and deposits, life and nonlife insurance, technical reserves and other accounts payable. This section presents results of the survey as they relate to the stock of PSED as at end 2011, 2012, first and second quarters of 2013 according to type, maturity, relationship, sector, source country and regional economic grouping. The survey findings showed that the stock of PSED at end2012 stood at US $6,640.7 million, 42.3 percent higher than the end2011 stock position of US $ 4,668.0 million. In 2013, preliminary data shows that the stock of PSED at the end of quarter first recorded a 2.1 percent decrease in the stock to US $6,910.7 million, but increased by 6.6 percent to US $ 7,365.3 million at the end of the second quarter of 2013 (see Figure 5.1). Figure 5.1: Stock of Private Sector External Debt (US $ million), 2012 Q , , , , , , , , , ,668.0 US$ Million 5, , , , , , Q Q2 Year Private Sector External Debt Stock by Maturity and Type The survey results indicated that US $5,712.1 million (81.2 percent) of the stock of PSED at end2012, was in form of longterm borrowing while US $928.6 million (18.8 percent) was shortterm borrowing. Comparatively, US $ 3,963.7 million (84.9 percent) of stock in 2011 was longterm while the difference of US $704.3 million (15.1 percent) was shortterm. On a quarterly basis, US $6,060.8 million (87.7 percent) and US $6,387.2 million (86.7 percent), were longterm while US $849.8 million (12.3 percent) and US $978.0 million (13.3 percent) were shortterm borrowing for the first and second quarter of 2013, respectively (see Figure5.2)

3 Figure 5.2: Private Sector External Debt Stock by Maturity (US $ million), 2011 Q % 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 84.9% 87.7% 86.7% 81.2% 18.8% 15.1% 12.3% 13.3% Q Q2 Long Short It is worth noting that the bulk of PSED debt continues to be concentrated on the longterm end. The analysis of the structure of the PSED stock indicates that as at end2012, loans amounted to US $5,856.5 million, representing 88.2 percent of the overall debt stock, followed by trade credits at 9.2 percent, while currency and deposits accounted for 1.9 percent. Debt securities, life and nonlife insurance technical reserves and other accounts payable accounted for 0.7 percent collectively during the same period. A similar debt structure was recorded at the close of the first and second quarters of 2013 (see Figure 5.3). Figure 5.3: Private Sector External Debt Stock by Type (US $ million), 2012 Q , , , , , , , , , , Q Q2 Loans Trade Credits Currency and Deposits Debt Securities Life &NonLife Insurance Other Accounts Payable The stock of loans grew by 42.9 percent to US $5,856.5 million at end2012 from US $4,098.0 million registered at end2011. Trade credits were 54.1 percent higher at US $612.0 million, while debt securities more than tripled to US $24.2 million at end2012 from US $7.4 million at end2011. Life and nonlife insurance technical reserves as well as other accounts payable grew by 51.8 percent and 96.2 percent to US $20.2 million and US $2.0 million, respectively, at end2012. Currency and deposits, however, registered a decrease of 16.7 percent to US $125.8 million from US $151.0 million during the same period.

4 The survey findings for the first half of 2013 shows an increase in the stock of PSED by 10.9 percent to US $7,365.3 million. The increase in loans by 13.8 percent explained this outturn (see Table 5.1) Table 5.1: Private Sector External Debt Stock by Type (US $ million), 2011 Q Debt Type Annual change (%) Q Q Loans 4, , , , Long term 3, , , , Short term Trade Credits Long term Short term Currency and Deposits Long term Short term Debt Securities Long term Short term Other Accounts Payable Long term Short term Life & NonLife Insurance Technical Reserves Short term Grand Total 4, , , , Private Sector External Debt Stock by Relationship The stock of PSED at end2012 was largely from affiliates at US $4,745.7 million, an increase of 54.8 percent from US $3,065.6 million recorded at end2011. Debt from nonaffiliates increased by 18.3 percent to close at US $1,895.0 million from US $1,602.4 million recorded at end2011. With respect to the first and second quarters of 2013, findings showed that the stock of PSED from affiliates increased by 3.8 percent to US $4,926.2 million, while debt from nonaffiliates grew by 4.7 percent to US $1,984.5 million during the first quarter of During the second quarter of 2013 PSED stock of debt from affiliates and non affiliates registered an increase of 9.1 percent and 0.4 percent to close at US $5,373.6 million and US $1,991.6 million, respectively (see Figure 5.4). 51 Figure 5.4: Private Sector External Debt Stock by Relationship (US $ million), 2012Q , , , , , , , , , , , , , Q Q2 2013

5 An analysis of the of PSED stock in 2012 from both affiliates and nonaffiliates showed that loans were the most dominant. At US $4,140.5 million, loans from affiliates which increased by 54.7 percent during the year represented 87.2 percent of the total stock compared with 83.3 percent in Trade credits from affiliates in 2012 were US $595.8 million, representing 12.6 percent share compared with 11.8 percent in The value of currency and deposits increased to US$ 0.9 million at end2012 from US $0.6 million at end2011, while debt securities declined to US $6.4 million from US $6.5 million during the same period. Game viewing by the doorstep, Livingstone. (Picture courtesy of ZANIS) With regard to stock of PSED from nonaffiliates, loans grew by 20.7 percent to US $1,716.0 million at end2012 accounting for 90.6 percent of the stock, up from 88.7 percent in The share of trade credits from nonaffiliates in 2012 was 0.9 percent despite a decline of 2.0 percent to US $16.2 million percent at end Currency and deposits, decreased by 17.0 percent to US $124.9 million from US $150.4 million representing a share of 9.4 percent, while debt securities at US $ 17.8 million represented a share of 0.9 percent at end2012. Life and nonlife insurance and technical reserves however, grew by 51.8 percent representing a share of 1.1 percent during the same period (see Figure 5.5). Figure 5.5: Private Sector External Debt Stock by Type by Relationship (US $ million) 2011 and , , , , , , , , , , , Loans Trade Credits 2011 Currency and Deposits Debt securities 2012 Other Accounts Payable 2012 Life &NonLife Insurance Technical Reserves

6 In 2013, data for the first half showed that PSED stock from affiliates in form of loans grew by 17.0 percent to US $4,844.2 million representing 90.1 percent of the stock Trade credits declined by 12.6 percent to US$ million, representing a share of 9.7 percent at endjune Debt securities and Currency and deposits declined by 9.0 percent and 5.2 percent respectively in the first half of With regard to stock of PSED from nonaffiliates, loans increased by 6.1 percent to US $1,820.6 million from US $1,772.6 million at the end of second quarter of Trade credits increased by 15.4 percent whilst currency and deposits and debt securities fell by 6.5 percent and 7.9 percent respectively during the same period (see Table 5.2). Table 5.2: Private Sector External Debt Stock by Type by Relationship (US $ million) 2011 Q Type Loans Q Q % Change Q2 2013/ Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Other Accounts Payable Trade Credits Currency and Deposits Debt securities Life &NonLife Insurance Total , , , , The automobile industry in Zambia is booming 53

7 5.4 Private Sector External Debt Stock by Sector An analysis of PSED by sector revealed that the mining and quarrying sector was US $4,189.3 million, accounting for 63.1 percent of the total stock at end2012, following an increase of 44.3 percent from the previous year. This was followed by manufacturing with a share of 14.8 percent explained by growth of 54.7 percent to US$ million from US$ million registered in The electricity, gas and steam at US $370.1 million had a share of 5.6 percent of the total stock whilst the Wholesale and retail trade sector accounted for 4.4 percent at US $294.1 million. The other sectors contributed 12.1 percent, collectively (see Figure 5.6). Figure 5.6: Private Sector External Debt Stock by Sector (US $ million), 2011 and Survey findings on PSED for first and second quarters of 2013 indicated that mining and quarrying sector constituted 66.9 percent and 67.2 percent of the total stock at US $ 4,626.6 and US $4,947.9 million respectively. This was followed by the manufacturing sector at US $906.0 million in the first quarter and US $1,100.5 million in quarter two, representing a share of 13.1 percent and 14.9 percent respectively whilst Electricity gas and steam, which was relatively stable at US $365.7 million representing 5.0 percent share of the total PSED stock at end June The rest of PSED was accounted for by the wholesale and retail trade sector and other sectors (see Table 5.3). Table 5:3: Private Sector External Debt Stock by Sector (US $ millions), Q1 and Q Sector Q Q % change Q2/Q Mining and Quarrying 4, , Manufacturing , Electricity Gas Steam Wholesale and Retail trade Information and Communication Deposit Taking Corporations (Banks) Real Estate Activities Construction Agriculture Forestry and Fishing Other Financial Institutions Accommodation and Food Transportation and Storage Total 6, ,

8 5.5 Private Sector External Debt Stock by Source Country The survey findings indicated that the main creditors for the bulk of stock of PSED were United Kingdom, South Africa, China, Canada and Australia which collectively accounted for 59.8 percent and 68.4 percent at end 2011 and 2012 respectively (see Figure 5.7 & Annex ix) Figure 5:7 Private Sector External Debt Stock by Source Country (US $ million), 2011 Q , , , , , , ,179.7 United Kingdom 1, , South Africa China P.R. Canada Australia Congo Dem. Switzerland Netherlands Isle of Man Bermuda EXIM CHINA Others Rep. of Q Q At end2012 the total stock of PSED was US $6,640.7 million for which the the United Kingdom and South Africa, accounted for 17.8 percent and 16.7 percent respectively. China accounted for 11.1 percent whilst Canada and Australia each represented 7.1 percent followed by Switzerland (5.6 percent), Netherlands (5.3 percent), Isle of Man (5.3 percent) and Bermuda (4.9 percent). The survey revealed that the PSED by major creditors at the end of the first half of the year 2013 shows that United Kingdom continued to dominate accounting for 22.3 percent following an increase of 38.9 percent. This was followed by South Africa (12.1 percent), China (11.2 percent), Switzerland (7.4 percent), Canada (6.4 percent), Australia (6.4 percent), Netherlands (5.1 percent) and Bermuda (4.5 percent). The rest was accounted for by Isle of Man, EXIM China and Congo Private Sector External Debt Stock by Region The survey findings showed that the main source region for the bulk of the PSED stock as at end2012 were OECD, SADC Exclusively and Asia regions which collectively accounted for 76.8 percent (see Figure 5.8). The OECD countries collectively accounted for 47.1 percent (US $3,129.8 million), followed by SADC Exclusively and Asia, which accounted for 17.1 percent and 12.6 percent at US $1,132.9 million and US $836.0 million, respectively. The survey findings for the first half of 2013 indicated that OECD countries at US $3,851.5 million accounted for 52.3 percent of total PSED stock. This was followed by Asia which accounted for 12.4 percent at US $913.9 million and SADC Exclusively countries at US $894.1 million, translating into 12.1 percent. Further analysis revealed that, in terms of growth, the PSED stock from the EU region rose significantly to US $401.1 million in 2012 from US $171.8 million in 2011) followed by OECD countries whose stock edged up by 63.9 percent to US $3,129.8 million. The PSED associated with Asia increased by 25.6 percent to US $836.0 million from US $665.5 million in The COMESA and SADC (dual members) and COMESA Exclusively regions also posted growths of 18.5 and 1.7 percent respectively. The SADC Exclusively region, however, declined by 1.3 percent to US $1,132.9 million from US $1,147.3 million at end2011.

9 Figure 5.8: Private Sector External Debt Stock by Region (US $ million), 2011 Q The survey findings indicated that at the end of the first half of 2013, four regions namely COMESA and SADC (dual member), OECD, Asia and EU registered growth in PSED stock of 43.2 percent, 23.0 percent, 9.3 percent, and 4.4 percent respectively. On the other hand, the PSED stock for SADC Exclusively and COMESA Exclusively declined by 21.1 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively during the same period. The newly constructed National Heroes Stadium, Lusaka 56