Small Business Finance Survey ABSTRACT

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1 Small Business Finance Survey ABSTRACT Issue No. 4 DECEMBER 2004

2 CONTENTS OVERVIEW CHAPTER 1 FACTS AND TRENDS 1.1 The international economy 1.2 The economic situation in Italy 1.3 Forecasts for the Italian and international economies CHAPTER Introduction ANALYSIS OF SMALL BUSINESS INVESTMENTS 2.2 Investment patterns: overview 2.3 Dynamism and risk of Small Business investments 2.4 Future prospects for Small Business investments CHAPTER Introduction SERVICES AND COMMERCIAL BUSINESSES 3.2 Analysis of service sector performance: nationwide overview 3.3 Analysis of trends within the sector: comparison with Dynamism and economic and financial risk Investments 3.4 Some assessments of credit risk in the Service and Commercial Business sectors CHAPTER Introduction RISK ANALYSIS BASED ON THE CRIF DATABANK 4.2 The credit market: lending and risk trends 4.3 Risk trends broken down by type of enterprise 4.4 Risk trends broken down by geographical region 4.5 Risk trends broken down by sector 4.6 Risk trends in different regions, broken down by business sector METHODOLOGICAL APPENDIX Definition of Small Businesses Write-off rates and serious and minor delinquency rates Yearly default rates at 90 and 180 days Table showing correspondence between RAE codes and Ateco 2002 REGIONAL STATISTICS II

3 OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION The Small Business Finance Survey is a periodic report aimed at providing structured information that can aid financial institutions in managing this customer segment. The idea of analysing finance, and not only credit, rests upon four brand-new analytic and information tools: 1. sector-specific indicators of CRIF BUSINESS INFORMATION SERVICES interpreted by NOMISMA 2. direct surveys conducted by NOMISMA on an extended sample of small businesses 3. a model for analysing and interpreting the financial and strategic behaviour of small businesses, developed by NOMISMA 4. data from EURISC, the CRIF credit reference service, relative to small business customers Combining these tools can provide an overall picture of the financial framework and business management and credit risk trends in different sectors and geographical regions. This allows a connection to be made between credit policies and business policies and between cyclical factors and credit risks. The small business finance survey integrates the macro- and micro-economic analytic input of NOMISMA with the information and analytic expertise of CRIF Decision Solutions with respect to the management of credit within the segment. III

4 REPORT TOPICS Italy buoyed by the recovery in the global economy The phase of expansion prevailing in the international economy (chapter 1) since the second half of 2003 has been confirmed for the current year; according to some forecasts, world economic activity should increase by 5% in 2004, thus achieving the highest growth rate of the past thirty years. The driving forces of the global economy continue to be the United States and China there is still some concern about the potential overheating of the Chinese economy though in 2004 the recovery has become more widespread. Japan seems finally to have overcome the phase of stagnation and emerging countries are enjoying an especially lively phase of economic growth, whereas the Euro zone plods along its course of slow growth. In the United States, the biggest support to production comes from investments, which showed very high growth rates in the first three quarters. The activity of accumulation, buoyed by expanding profits, should receive a further boost in the final months of the year thanks to tax incentives scheduled to expire at the end of December. Growth in domestic demand, reflected in a strong rise in imports, has contributed to an increasing balance of payments deficit on current account. This increase has however been offset by the foreign debt adjustments resulting from the devaluation of the dollar. In Asia, especially in China and India, production continues to expand at a brisk rate, surpassing forecasts; in the first three quarters of 2004 China saw production grow at rates higher than 9%, whereas between January and October investments rose by 30% - in nominal terms compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. In the first half of the year, the euro zone reinforced the expansion that had begun in July 2003, thus joining, somewhat late, the global economic recovery. According to the first data available for the third quarter of 2004, however, economic activity in the Euro zone grew by only 1.2% on an annualised basis. This indicates a slowdown compared to the first two quarters, which showed annualised growth rates of 2.8% and 2% respectively. The downtrend in economic growth observed in the Euro zone over the summer months is largely due to the declining performance of its two largest economies, France and Germany. The Spanish economy, though plagued by the highest unemployment rate in the Euro zone, continues to expand at higher than average rates. Euro zone: GDP and unemployment rate % change GDP (1) Unemployment rate I II III Oct 2004 Germany France Italy Spain Euro Zone (1) % change in annualised growth rate compared to previous period seasonally adjusted data at constant 1995 prices Source: Statistics computed by Nomisma on the basis of Eurostat data IV

5 In the Euro zone as a whole, the slackening observed in the second and third quarters reflects the modest expansion in household consumption, which grew in both periods at an annualised rate of 0.8%. Gross fixed investments, which had fallen in the first quarter reflecting the steep downtrend in German investments (-10.6% annualised rate) showed signs of picking up as the year went on, rising at an annualised rate of 2.4% in the third quarter. In 2004 Italian economic activity resumed growing at an acceptable pace: the growth rate is expected to hover around 1.3%, after two years in which it failed to top 0.5%. However, consumption does not seem likely to rise in the upcoming months, judging from the level of consumer confidence, which fell in November after five consecutive months of growth. An analysis of statistical trends paints more positive scenarios: despite slowing between July and September, fixed investments showed a net improvement in the first three quarters compared to 2003; the same applies for GDP, which, in both the second and third quarters, showed a 1.3% increase compared to the same period of Consumption, though showing a rising trend in the first three quarters, slacked off during the year. Corporate investments are bouncing back after the contraction that occurred following the expiry of tax incentives in December Indeed, trends point to a generalised increase in investments, though they remain below the level observed prior to the strong drop occurring in the previous year. The recovery in accumulation is, however, at risk: in the third quarter it showed a 0.8% decrease compared to the previous quarter, a decrease that may reflect uncertainty about demand prospects. From a geographical point of view, we may note a widespread trend toward a reduction in the ratio of gross fixed investments to value added in the regions with the highest concentration of small business; the most critical situation is to be found in major northern Italian regions like Piedmont and Lombardy, followed by Lazio and Marches. The ratio of gross fixed investments to value added has remained close to zero over the past three years in other important regions like Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany and Umbria. Behavioural patterns of Small Businesses as reflected through investment activities Small businesses (chapter 2) represent the distinguishing element of the Italian economy, and undoubtedly its greatest strength, at least up to today: 95% of Italian businesses are microenterprises employing an average of 3.7 people each. In the context of recovery forecast for 2005, small businesses have shown considerable responsiveness. In the first place, if we compare the 2004 data on economic and financial risk and dynamism with the same data for 2003, we find that dynamism is on the increase (+5%) whereas average risk has remained stable on the whole (-0.12%) From a geographical standpoint, dynamism has shown the strongest growth (+7.7%) in the regions of central Italy, followed by the northeast and the region comprising the south and islands (+5.9%), and lastly the northwest (+0.8%), where the increase is barely perceptible. V

6 The increase in average dynamism reflects an increase in all three factors making it up, i.e. business strategy for the target markets, organisational development and technical-operational development of the enterprise. Generally speaking the elements that positively impact dynamism are, among others, an increase in investments in research for new products and new markets, quality control, personnel training and strengthening of the financial sector. In the northeast the index has risen by 5.9%, which is higher than the national average (+5%): the increase is driven by investments in research for new products, strengthening of the financial sector and renovation and/or extension of company premises. Among small businesses in the northwest, the index has risen by barely 0.8%. The slight improvement reflects an increase in investments to strengthen the financial sector, which is offset, however, by a reduction in investments in plant and equipment and information technology. In central Italy the index has risen by 7.7%; this is ascribable to the fact that investments aimed at finding new markets, strengthening the financial sector, implementing quality control systems, renovating premises and extending information systems have grown at a faster rate in this region than in the rest of the country. In the southern and island regions, the index has increased as in the northeast (+5.9%), hence at a rate exceeding the national average. The growth in dynamism is the result of an increase in investments aimed at strengthening the financial sector as well as investments in training programs and in the renovation and/or extension of company premises. Looking at different business sectors, statistics comparing 2004 to the previous year show that small business confidence has improved in Agriculture and Trade and remained substantially stable in Services and Commercial Businesses. The percentage of investors has in fact risen respectively by 5.21, 8.11 and 0.15 points. However, the percentage of businesses investing in the manufacturing and construction industries has decreased compared to the previous year (-3.09 and points respectively). As regards the manufacturing industry in particular, the confidence level is expected to worsen further, as the percentage of businesses planning to invest in the medium term has fallen by 4.45 points compared to the previous year. The outlook is actually positive for the other macro sectors, especially for Agriculture ( points) and the Construction Industry ( points). The evidence suggests that we should see an improvement in the propensity to invest. According to the 2004 survey, small businesses that have made investments once again constitute a large percentage of the sample. Overall, 88.6% of the firms surveyed reported having made investments, versus 11.4% which did not invest. Small businesses are thus players who invest and what is more, the total amount of investment assets is on the rise. Statistics on global investments made in 2004 show a 2.77% increase. The total investments planned for the upcoming years show a marked improvement, exceeding the previous year s figure by 5.68%. In short, in an overall economic situation that is showing some albeit modest signs of improving, small businesses are playing an active role in bringing about this improvement. The trend in investments appears however to differ according to type. Investments in intangible assets have increased an average 4.50% this year, while investments in tangible assets have risen VI

7 a more modest 1.71%. The same trend appears if we look at the forecast statistics: intangible investments will grow by 26.14%, versus 17.30% growth in tangible investments. Trend in tangible and intangible investments made and planned Investment trend Planned investments Avg. Balance Tangible Invest. Avg. Balance Intangible Invest. Source: Small Business Finance Survey Avg. Balance Planned Tangible Avg. Balance Planned Intangible The breakdown shows a significant increase in investments in research for new products (+7.09%), research into new markets (+3.50%), personnel training (+3.96%), strengthening of the financial sector (+8.27%) and quality control (+3.64%), and by contrast a decrease in real estate investments (-0.65%) and only a minimal change in the purchase of machinery and equipment (+0.59%). Investments in intangible assets are expected to prevail in the future as well. Forecasts concerning the future investment activities of small businesses show that the most substantial investments will be concentrated above all in research for new products (+29.61% compared to 2003), followed by safety and environment (+28.16%), information technology (+27.91%), communication (+27.79%), research into new markets (+27.53%), strengthening of the financial sector (+25.06%) and personnel training (+24.74%). Analysis of small business behaviour in the service and commercial enterprises sector. At an overall glance (chapter 3), the added value created by services appears to be shrinking in all of the segments identified: in the majority of cases the performance data are positive, but reflect a downward trend; in some cases performance is negative. More specifically, as regards hotels and restaurants and private services, added value has shown a decline over the past two years, whereas in the transport industry, after peaking in 2001 (+8%), growth slowed in 2002 (+3.2%) and the level remained substantially stationary in 2003 (-0.1%). The credit, insurance and corporate services sector and the public service sector experienced a slowdown over the three-year period, but reported growth in 2003 (respectively +1.3% and +0.9%). Over the past three years the corporate birthrate has shown a decidedly negative trend, consistent with the overall economic situation. Fewer companies have been created in the transport sector and in the credit, insurance and corporate service sector; if we look only at the year 2003, we will see a decrease in the corporate birthrate in all sectors except for private services. Assessing the balance between natality and mortality, we will find a different scenario in the various sectors: while hotels and restaurants show a negative balance for the whole three-year period , in the corporate service and public service sectors, newly established companies outnumbered those going out of business in the same period. Against this backdrop the behaviour of small businesses appears to be in line with overall sector trends. VII

8 Services: balance between natality and mortality in different sectors Hotels and restaurants Transport Credit, insurance, corp. services, leasing Public services Private services Source: Statistics computed by Nomisma on the basis of Infocamere data (Chamber of Commerce Databank) An analysis of investment trends in the Service and Commercial Business sector reveals a decrease (-1.95 points) in the percentage of businesses that made investments between 2003 and The percentage is, however, expected to rise (3.38 points). In particular, if we consider the percentage of businesses that have invested this year compared to last, we will see an increase in the transport and communications industry and by contrast a decrease in the credit, insurance and corporate services sector, as well as a more marked decrease in the hotel and restaurant industry. Forecasts point to a decrease in the percentage of investors within the credit, insurance and corporate services sector and a practically stationary situation for hotels and restaurants. Among businesses in the transport and communications industry we can expect to see an increase in the percentage of investors. Within the specific segment, small businesses in the transport and communications industry have performed best in terms of overall risk and dynamism. Dynamism has increased substantially compared to 2003 (+18%), a sign that investments are picking up; with respect to economic and financial risk, the exogenous component has decreased while the endogenous component has increased. As far as the hotel and restaurant industry is concerned, the behaviour of small businesses reflects a period of stagnation in investments - which have fallen - combined with a decrease in risk. These patterns are consistent with the overall trends described in the previous chapter, and which do not paint a particularly positive outlook for this sector. As for corporate services, both dynamism and overall risk show a slight increase: the endogenous component of risk has definitely worsened. From the standpoint of dynamism, the trend between 2003 and 2004 was most greatly impacted by the entity of investments in tangible assets aimed at reinforcing company production processes and intangible investments aimed at strengthening the organisation. However, while in the transport sector investments deployed in technical development were associated with investments to strengthen the organisation, businesses in the corporate services sector have been awarded points for dynamism bases on their organisational development, despite a lower propensity to invest in tangible assets for production. In the hotel and restaurant industry, the contraction in tangible investments, presumably for the extension of accommodation facilities, is a determinant factor explaining the low level of dynamism among small businesses in this sector. VIII

9 It should finally be noted that the sectors displaying increased dynamism compared to the past have also shown a proactive attitude toward market trends. Small businesses in both the corporate services and transport sectors have adopted policies aimed at seeking out new market outlets and new forms of service in response to the challenges posed by an increasingly difficult market context. A general interpretation of this phenomenon suggests that the risk associated with a lower degree of coherence between investments and the forms of financing is associated with a higher incidence of intangible investments. This aspect characterises above all the behaviour of small businesses in the corporate services sector, which are having trouble finding adequate sources of funding within the national financial panorama. In this respect, the problems confronting small businesses in the transport and hotel and restaurant industries are much smaller: in the former case, the combination of tangible and intangible investments can find adequate financial coverage through the tools available on the market whereas in the latter case investment activities are so limited and conditional upon the collateral security that businesses in the sector are capable of providing to guarantee repayment of loans that problems of financial incoherency are unlikely to be encountered. From a credit risk perspective, the results of an analysis of the service and commercial business sector suggest that the upcoming period will continue to be characterised by caution, though there are some grounds for differentiation. The default rate is increasing among all sectors with the exception of the transport and communications industry, which has seen a slight decrease. The situation as regards write-off rates shows a worsening in all service sectors in the past year. However, if we look more closely at recent trends we may observe that the write-off rate is decreasing among transport and communications companies and stationary for credit, insurance and corporate service providers. It continues to increase only for hotels and restaurants. Therefore, based on trends and the current situation, it may be affirmed that a growing percentage of small businesses have fallen into delinquency in the hotel and restaurant and credit, insurance and corporate services sectors, whereas delinquency is decreasing in the transport sector. Analysis of small business credit risk An analysis of credit risks (chapter 4) reveals the persistence of the negative effects associated with the period just elapsed, but also shows the first signs of a slow recovery occurring in the short term. More specifically, this issue of the Small Business Finance Survey highlights the following trends: The write-off rate for Italy as a whole has shown to be substantially stable in the last quarter (+0.02%), indicating a halt in the growth trend which began in June The value for September 2004 (5.2%) nonetheless stands as the highest since Serious delinquencies decreased slightly compared to other periods of 2004, returning to a level of 1.51%, which matches that of September The default rate at 180 days is on the rise (+0.13% compared to June 2004 and +0.29% compared to September 2003): this increase is probably tied to the fall in the rate of growth of domestic demand. IX

10 With respect to repayment periods, we continue to witness an increase in medium-term credit (between 1 and 5 years) and long-term credit (over 5 years) as compared to shortterm credit (up to 1 year), in line with the trend reported for the year This confirms a preference for longer repayment periods, reflecting both a more astute choice of financing tools and a restructuring of credit. A breakdown by type of enterprise reveals an increase in the write-off rate in the last quarter among stock corporations (+0.11%) and partnerships (+0.10%), whereas no significant variation has occurred in the category of sole traders. The latter may have benefited, between June and September 2004, of the effects of new developments in lending following a period of constant decreases in growth rates, whereas among stock corporations and partnerships the negative trend in lending persists, accompanied with a worsening of the quality of credit. These patterns derive from the conversion of many sole proprietorships into limited liability companies with a single shareholder, resulting in a convergence in the risk profile of the two types of companies. Trends in write-off rate broken down by type of enterprise percentage values Source: Small Business Finance Survey computed on the basis of Crif data A breakdown by geographic region confirms that the quality of credit is inferior in central Italy (the write-off rate at September 2004 is 5.92%) and the south+islands (5.55%). Looking at trends, though the northeast may still boast the best quality of credit, it is starting to manifest signs of difficulty to which it had seemed fairly immune in previous months (+0.19 compared to June 2004, compared to September 2003). The situation has improved slightly in nearly all regions of southern Italy, whereas a constantly worsening trend persists in central Italy. A breakdown by business sector, again in terms of the write-off rate, confirms the difficulties being encountered in the sea transportation sector (10.28%), the fashion industry (7.90%) and the hotel and public services industries (7.70%). The communications service industry, though a sparsely populated sector, has seen a significant worsening (+1.67% compared to June 2004). X

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