Euler Hermes Group Core Subsidiaries Ratings Affirmed At 'AA-' After Insurance Criteria Change; Outlook Stable

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1 Research Update: Euler Hermes Group Core Subsidiaries Ratings Affirmed At 'AA-' After Insurance Criteria Change; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Taos D Fudji, Milan (39) ; taos.fudji@standardandpoors.com Secondary Contact: Virginie Crepy, Paris ; virginie.crepy@standardandpoors.com Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Ratings Score Snapshot Related Criteria And Research Ratings List JUNE 6,

2 Research Update: Euler Hermes Group Core Subsidiaries Ratings Affirmed At 'AA-' After Insurance Criteria Change; Outlook Stable Overview Following a review of France-based Euler Hermes Group (EH) under our revised insurance criteria, we are affirming our 'AA-' ratings on its core subsidiaries. The ratings reflect our view of EH's very strong business risk profile, based on its leading global franchise in trade credit insurance, and strong financial risk profile, with a strong financial flexibility that offsets an only moderately strong capital and earnings. Our opinion on the strategic importance of EH to its parent Allianz SE enhances our view of the ratings on EH. The stable outlook on EH mirrors that on Allianz SE and reflects our expectation that EH will remain strategically important to its parent. Rating Action On June 6, 2013, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'AA-' counterparty credit and insurer financial strength ratings on Euler Hermes France, Euler Hermes Deutschland, Euler Hermes Europe, and Euler Hermes North American Insurance Company, the core subsidiaries of France-based global trade credit insurer Euler Hermes SA (EH). At the same time, we affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term counterparty credit ratings on Euler Hermes Deutschland. The outlook is stable. Rationale The ratings reflect our view of the group's very strong business risk profile and strong financial risk profile. Under our criteria, these factors lead to a possible anchor of either 'aa-' or 'a+'. We derived our 'a+' anchor on the group from our belief that EH's relatively narrow business focus on global trade credit insurance and high sensitivity to the economic cycle position its business risk profile toward the lower boundary of the very strong range. EH's business risk profile is built on a very strong competitive position and our view of intermediate industry and country risk. Its financial profile balances our moderately strong capital and earnings assessment with strong financial flexibility and its intermediate risk position. We consider enterprise risk management (ERM) and management and governance to be neutral for the ratings, while we view liquidity as strong. We combine these factors to derive a stand-alone credit profile (SACP) for EH of 'a+'. We uplift the 'AA-' ratings on EH's core subsidiaries by one notch to reflect its strategic importance to JUNE 6,

3 Allianz SE. Overall, we consider that global trade credit insurance faces intermediate risk, based on our view of low country risk and intermediate industry risk. We view country risk as low as exposures are globally diversified and strongly weighted in wealthy and stable mature markets. The industry's high volatility of loss ratios primarily drives our view of intermediate industry risk. In our view, the evolution of claims is correlated to the trend in the economic cycle. In addition, premiums are generally tied to clients' trade volumes, which decline during a recession. The combination of these elements results in volatile loss ratios, such as those experienced during the 2008 global financial crisis, at which point we estimate that the combined (loss and expense) ratio for the trade credit industry deteriorated by about 40 percentage points (pps) compared with before the crisis. On the other hand, the necessity to hold extensive data on corporate credit quality and provide international coverage creates very high operational barriers to entry, in our view. In our opinion, EH's competitive position is very strong. With about 34% market share, we consider that EH has a leading position in the trade credit insurance market. The group also has good geographic diversity, with large operations in Germany, France, the U.K., Italy, and the U.S. EH's solid underwriting skills and geographical reach result in a better average through-the-cycle combined ratio compared with peers Atradius and Coface. In addition, EH has maintained positive net results since the crisis started five years ago, as loss ratios have been less volatile than peers'. EH's relatively high reliance on reinsurance, representing about 33% of gross written premium, as well as its concentration in a single line of business, weigh on our view of the strength of its business profile. We anticipate that EH will pursue diversification in countries where demand for trade credit insurance is growing, such as the U.S., and in the major Latin American and Asian economies. We anticipate a 4%-5% increase in EH's premiums in the next three years. We also expect that Solunion, the new joint venture with Mapfre S.A. in Spain and Latin America, will sustain growth. We consider that EH's capital and earnings are moderately strong--a relative weakness in the rating profile. We view EH's capitalization as strong according to our risk-based capital model, albeit at the lower end of our benchmark for an 'A' rating. We also consider that EH's stop-loss reinsurance treaty, which covers claims in excess of a 70% loss ratio up to a limit of 130 million, supports capital. Nevertheless, we consider that our estimates of capital requirements, based on historical loss levels, may underestimate the sensitivity of EH's gross exposure to future economic shocks. Gross exposure is high billion at the end of and has risen by a relatively rapid 37% between the end of 2009 and the end of We expect that capital adequacy will remain strong in the next three years as we consider that exposure, which drives trade credit capital requirements, is likely to grow at a similar pace to premium. We also expect EH's combined JUNE 6,

4 ratio to be between 80%-85%, which is slightly worse than in the past three years, as the positive run-off of prior reserves reduces. Volume growth, particularly in America and Asia, should nevertheless sustain net income near the 300 million level reached in Our capital projection also factors in EH's dividend payout objective of 60%. In our opinion, EH exhibits an intermediate risk profile, primarily due to the high credit quality of its investment portfolio and short-term nature of its liabilities, which are generally close to one year. This has enabled EH to quickly cut its credit insurance commitments to riskier counterparties during the global financial crisis, thus partially offsetting the negative impact of the crisis. We also expect EH's reinsurance program to reduce earnings volatility. In 2012, for example, we estimate that excess-of-loss reinsurance decreased EH's combined ratio by about 4pps. In our view, the group's pension benefits remain moderate and we have factored into our assessment of EH's capital adequacy the negative impact of a change in pension accounting rules in first-quarter 2013 that resulted in a 121 million charge. We view EH's financial flexibility as strong, supported by the company's access to both equity and debt markets. In addition, we consider that EH could quickly strengthen its capital by reducing its dividend payout. Lastly, EH's financial leverage is relatively low as it does not have hybrid debt on its balance sheet, and could potentially tap this market in case of need. We regard EH's ERM and management and governance as neutral for the ratings. The importance of ERM for EH is high, in our opinion, given EH's large exposures to multiple economies. Our assessment of ERM as adequate reflects our positive view of the group's risk-management culture, and neutral assessment of EH's risk controls and strategic risk management. We could revise our assessment of the group's ERM to strong if it continues to develop a holistic ERM program and its internal model, as well as embedding economic capital and risk-return considerations into its strategic decision making. EH's management and governance is satisfactory, in our opinion. This is based on our view that EH's management has a strong track record of successfully delivering on its strategic goals. At the same time, we consider the company's risk tolerance as neutral, balancing a prudent approach to underwriting with a strong appetite for growth. We regard EH's liquidity as strong, owing to the strength of liquidity sources available to it--mainly premium income--and its highly liquid asset portfolio that contains more than 4 billion in marketable securities. EH's main shareholder is France-based holding company Allianz France (not rated) with 68.2% ownership, which is fully owned by Allianz SE. EH's remaining shares are publicly traded. We consider EH strategically important to the Allianz group because of its important earnings contribution to the group. EH has also enlarged Allianz' product offering and strengthened its franchise. Although EH operates as a stand-alone unit due to the nature and specificities of its activities, there is some integration with its parent, JUNE 6,

5 for example, the use of the internal capital model and the adoption of some of Allianz' risk management practices. As a strategically important subsidiary of Allianz, we cap the ratings on EH at one notch below those on its parent. Outlook The stable outlook on EH mirrors that on Allianz SE and reflects our expectation that EH will remain strategically important to its parent. A one-notch downgrade of Allianz would result in a similar downgrade of EH's core companies. We could lower the rating on EH if we consider that its strategic importance to Allianz weakens. We could lower the ratings on EH if our view of its capital and earnings were to weaken materially from our current assessment of moderately strong, leading us to lower the SACP by more than two notches. A deterioration of the SACP by up to two notches would not automatically result in a downgrade, however, as, owing to its strategic importance to its parent, EH would benefit from up to three notches of support above its SACP, according to our criteria. We currently consider an upgrade as remote and consider that it would depend on a similar rating action on the parent. Ratings Score Snapshot Financial Strength Rating AA-/Stable Stand-Alone Credit Profile a+ Anchor a+ Business Risk Profile Very Strong IICRA Intermediate Risk Competitive Position Very Strong Financial Risk Profile Capital and Earnings Risk Position Financial Flexibility Strong Moderately Strong Intermediate Risk Strong Modifiers 0 ERM and Management 0 Enterprise Risk Management Adequate Management and Governance Satisfactory Holistic Analysis 0 Liquidity Strong Support +1 JUNE 6,

6 Group Support +1 Government Support 0 IICRA Insurance Industry And Country Risk Assessment. Related Criteria And Research Related criteria Insurers: Rating Methodology, May 7, 2013 Group Rating Methodology, May 7, 2013 Enterprise Risk Management, May 7, 2013 Methodology For Linking Short-Term And Long-Term Ratings For Corporate, Insurance, And Sovereign Issuers, May 7, 2013 Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, 2012 Principles Of Credit Ratings, Feb. 16, 2011 Refined Methodology And Assumptions For Analyzing Insurer Capital Adequacy Using The Risk-Based Insurance Capital Model, June 7, 2010 Credit And Surety Insurance Criteria: Interactive Rating Methodology, Oct. 18, 2004 Related research List Of Issuers With Ratings Under Criteria Observation Due To S&P's New Insurers Rating Methodology, May 7, 2013 Standard & Poor's Assigns Insurance Industry And Country Risk Assessments, May 7, 2013 Allianz SE And Core Subsidiaries Affirmed At 'AA/A-1+' After Insurance Criteria, May 23, 2013 Ratings List Ratings Affirmed Euler Hermes France Euler Hermes North America Insurance Company Euler Hermes Europe Counterparty Credit Rating Local Currency AA-/Stable/-- Euler Hermes France Euler Hermes North America Insurance Company Euler Hermes Europe Euler Hermes Deutschland AG Financial Strength Rating Local Currency AA-/Stable/-- Euler Hermes Deutschland AG Counterparty Credit Rating Local Currency AA-/Stable/A-1+ JUNE 6,

7 Additional Contact: Insurance Ratings Europe; Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at and at spcapitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) ; London Press Office (44) ; Paris (33) ; Frankfurt (49) ; Stockholm (46) ; or Moscow 7 (495) JUNE 6,

8 Copyright 2013 by Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT'S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P's opinions, analyses, and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw, or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal, or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain nonpublic information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, (free of charge), and and (subscription) and (subscription) and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at JUNE 6,

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