US 95 Northwest Corridor 2014 Financial Plan Annual Update As of December 31, 2014 Submitted March 31, 2015

Transcription

1 US 95 Northwest Corridor 2014 Financial Plan Annual Update As of December 31, 2014 Submitted March 31, 2015 US 95 Northwest Corridor Clark County, Nevada

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3 US 95 Northwest Corridor 2014 Financial Plan Annual Update Prepared for Nevada Department of Transportation As of December 31, 2014

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5 I-15 SOUTH CORRIDOR IMPROVEMENTS 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Table of Contents 1. Project Description... 1 Project Purpose... 2 Project Phases Project Schedule Project Cost Cost Estimating Methodology Escalation Project Funds Federal Funds State Funds Local Funds Financing Issues Cash Flow Phase 2A Phase 2B Phase 3A Phase 3B Phase 3C Phase 3D Phase 3E Phase Total Project P3 Assessment Risk and Response Strategies Annual Update Cycle Summary of Cost Changes since Last Year s Financial Plan Cost and Funding Trends since the Initial Financial Plan Summary of Schedule Changes since Last Year s Financial Plan Schedule Trends since the Initial Financial Plan Appendix A Letter of Certification iii

6 I-15 SOUTH CORRIDOR IMPROVEMENTS 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Appendix B Financial Plan Checklist Appendix C Funding Documents Appendix D NDOT Programming Papers (PSAMS) US 95 Northwest Corridor Environmental Phase Phase Phase 2A Phase Phase 3A Phase Appendix E Phase 3 Sub-Phase Graphics Appendix F 2014 Cost Risk Assessment Workshop Update Exhibits/Tables Exhibit 1 Project Location... 1 Table 1 Project Schedule... 6 Table 2 Project Schedule Comparison... 7 Table 3 Total Project Cost by Cost Element... 9 Table 4 Cost Comparison by Cost Element Table 5 Escalation Rates Exhibit 2 US 95 Northwest Corridor Funding Share by Source, Millions ($ s) Table 6 Programmed Funding in Millions ($ s) Exhibit 3 Phase 2A Interchange Annual and Cumulative Cash Flow (Millions $ s) Exhibit 4 Phase 2B Annual and Cumulative Cash Flow (Millions $ s) Exhibit 5 Phase 3A Annual and Cumulative Cash Flow (Millions $ s) Exhibit 6 Phase 3B Annual and Cumulative Cash Flow (Millions $ s) Exhibit 7 Phase 3C Annual and Cumulative Cash Flow (Millions $ s) Exhibit 8 Phase 5 Annual and Cumulative Cash Flow (Millions $ s) Exhibit 9 US 95 Northwest Corridor Cost and Funding History Exhibit 10a US 95 Northwest Corridor Construction Schedule History Exhibit 10b US 95 Northwest Corridor Construction Schedule History iv

7 I-15 SOUTH CORRIDOR IMPROVEMENTS 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Acronyms and Abbreviations: AASHTO American Association of State way and Transportation Officials AU Financial Plan Annual Update BLM Bureau of Land Management CRA Cost Risk Assessment CN Construction FEIS Final Environmental Statement FHWA Federal way Administration FONSI Finding of No Significant IFP Initial Financial Plan NDOT Nevada Department of Transportation NDOW Nevada Department of Wildlife NEPA National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 PE Preliminary Engineering PMP Project Management Plan PPDM Project Development and Design Manual PS&E Plans, Specifications, and Estimates Reclamation U.S. Bureau of Reclamation ROD Record of Decision ROW Right-of-Way RR Railroad RTC Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada RTP Regional Transportation Plan US 95 US way 95 USFWS U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service VE Value Engineering YOE Year-of-Expenditure v

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9 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE 1. Project Description The US 95 Northwest Corridor from Washington Avenue to Kyle Canyon Road is one of the fastest growing areas in southern Nevada. The US 95 freeway facility links urbanized Las Vegas on the south to rural Clark County and the Paiute Indian Reservation to the north. It serves heavy regional commuter demands between predominately residential areas in northwest Las Vegas and large employment centers in downtown Las Vegas and the Las Vegas resort corridor. This highway also serves as the only major transportation link between Las Vegas and the Toiyabe National Forest, commonly referred to as Mount Charleston. Mount Charleston serves a dual role as a small community and as a getaway for southern Nevadans, attracting thousands of vehicles every weekend. The project area, located within Clark County, Nevada, extends on US 95 from Washington Avenue to Kyle Canyon Road, a distance of approximately 13 miles, as shown in Exhibit 1. DURANGO DRIVE Exhibit 1 Project Location 1

10 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Project Purpose The purpose of the project is to relieve congestion and improve the operational characteristics of the US 95 Northwest Corridor in response to continued and proposed development and the resultant traffic growth in the Las Vegas Valley. The proposed improvements to US 95 will: Accommodate projected local traffic; Decrease congestion; Reduce travel times; Improve access to areas planned for development; Improve freeway operations; Improve safety; Meet stakeholder/public expectations; Reduce vehicle emissions; Reduce idling; Beautify the corridor; and Improve driver comfort. Project Phases The US 95 Northwest Corridor Project improvements have been subdivided into five phases for construction, consistent with the timing of the anticipated need for improvements. The project limits of these phases and the proposed improvements are as follows: Phase 1 Washington Avenue to Ann Road Construction was completed on Phase 1 in July This project phase: widened US 95 from 3 general purpose lanes in each direction to accommodate 1 HOV ( Occupancy Vehicle) and auxiliary lanes in each direction from Washington Avenue to Ann Road; widened the Gowan Road grade separation; constructed tieback walls at the grade separations; improved operations at Cheyenne Avenue interchange by constructing a loop ramp to accommodate the heavy westbound Cheyenne Avenue to southbound US 95 demand; improved operations at Durango Drive interchange by constructing a loop ramp to accommodate the heavy westbound Durango Drive to southbound US 95 demand; and constructed drainage, noise walls, lighting, signing, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) facilities, landscape and aesthetic features. Phase 2 Ann Road to Kyle Canyon Road The Phase 2 improvements will be constructed within the existing US 95 right-of-way. Phase 2 has been divided into two separate contracts for construction: Phase 2A - Widen US 95 from Ann Road to Durango Drive Widening US 95 from 3 general purpose lanes in each direction to accommodate 1 HOV lane and auxiliary lanes in each direction from Ann Road to Centennial Parkway; 2

11 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Widening US 95 from 2 general purpose lanes in each direction to accommodate 1 additional general purpose lane, 1 HOV lane and auxiliary lanes in each direction from Centennial Parkway to Durango Drive; Constructing sound walls in noise sensitive areas; Perpetuating drainage, lighting, signing and ITS improvements; Improving landscape and aesthetic features; and Relocating utilities as necessary. Phase 2B - Widen US 95 from Durango Drive to Kyle Canyon Road. Widening US 95 from 2 general purpose lanes in each direction to accommodate 1 additional general purpose lane and auxiliary lanes in each direction from Durango Drive to Kyle Canyon Road; Constructing sound walls in noise sensitive areas; Perpetuating drainage, lighting, signing and ITS improvements; Improving landscape and aesthetic features; and Relocating utilities as necessary. Constructing a new park-and-ride facility in the southwest quadrant of the US 95/Durango Drive interchange as needed Phase 3 US 95/CC-215 Northern Beltway Interchange Phase 3 improvements will be constructed within the existing right-of-way of US 95 and CC-215. In order to deliver the project over the next 2-15 years, the project team has developed a phasing plan. This new plan proposes 5 sub-phases or contracts with costs ranging from $13- $75 million dollars per phase. Below describes the scope of work and cost estimate for each proposed sub-phases. Each contract will improve the operations of the interchange incrementally and will have independent utility from the other contracts. See Appendix E for plan sheets showing the individual sub-phases. The contracts will occur in the following order: Phase 3A - This project consists of building three of the major traffic movements through the proposed system to system interchange. To provide operational benefit immediately, it was determined to construct the northbound US 95 to eastbound CC 215 ramp (NE), the westbound CC 215 to southbound US 95 ramp (WS), and improve the eastbound to southbound ramp (ES). This improves flows for high traffic movements and alleviates congestion during peak hours at the existing intersections of CC 215 and Oso Blanca Road and Sky Pointe Drive, just west and east of US 95. A temporary connection for the NE to CC 215 will be needed until the eastbound CC 215 mainline is constructed during Phase 3C. In order to complete the tie-in points of the WS and NE ramps on US 95, this project will include all outside widening of US 95 in both directions between the entrance/exits of the ramps and Ann Road. Additionally the proposed southbound collector distributor (CD) road, the tie back walls on Tropical Parkway/Azure Drive structure, and the widening of the eastbound CC 215 to southbound US 95 ramp at the entrance of US 95 will also be constructed as part of this project. This project will also include the Clark County Regional Flood Control Facility CNWE 0301 and CNWE 0304 along CC-215 from an existing concrete channel (East Tenaya Way) north to US 3

12 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE 95. This will construct approximately 5,500 linear feet of reinforced concrete box storm drain with all appurtenances Phase 3B - In order to complete last three contracts of the system to system interchange, the Kern River Gas Line must be relocated. The gas line is 36 inches in diameter and is pressured to 1,300 psi. It was constructed in 1992 and provides service to Southwest Gas in Las Vegas and many other clients. NDOT has prior rights where the line crosses. The City of Las Vegas and Clark County also have prior rights for short lengths of the pipeline. However, for the majority of the gas line within the project footprint, Kern River has prior rights. The current location of the gas line is impacted by 4 new structures and several feet of added fill that will be located directly above the existing line. Therefore it was determined that by relocating the line further to the north, all conflicts with the new roadway improvements would be eliminated. The total length of newly constructed gas line is approximately 5,100 ft. Phase 3C In this phase, the local access and eastbound CC 215 mainline improvements need to be constructed to minimize costs for temporary improvements for the remaining ramps and maintain local connectivity. Phase 3C will build the eastbound CC 215 mainline from the Grand Montecito structure to west of the Tenaya Way grade separation, the eastbound CC 215 to southbound US 95 (ES), the John Herbert Blvd. interchange, the eastbound frontage road to John Herbert Blvd. (EN), the new Oso Blanca Road alignment, and the connection of the local access on John Herbert Blvd. to Azure Parkway. This connection will require the City of Las Vegas to acquire a small parcel adjacent to the north leg of the Azure/Sky Point Drive intersection. All signing, lighting, and drainage improvements necessary for these improvements will be built as part of this phase. Temporary connections for the westbound on and off ramps to John Herbert will be provided until the completion of the westbound CC 215 in Phase 3E. Once these improvements are constructed, traffic on mainline CC 215 will be shifted to the eastbound mainline, until the construction of the westbound CC 215 mainline is completed in Phase 3E. Phase 3D This phase will construct the remainder of the ramps needed to complete the US 95/CC 215 system to system interchange. These ramps consist of the southbound US 95 to eastbound CC 215 (SE), the eastbound CC 215 to northbound US 95 (ENL), southbound US 95 to westbound CC 215 (SW), and westbound CC 215 to northbound US 95 (WN). Additionally, the westbound frontage road from John Herbert Blvd. interchange to Oso Blanca Road and the northbound US 95 to westbound CC 215 (NW) flyover ramp including the crossing at US 95, will be constructed within this phase. All signing, lighting, and drainage improvements necessary for these improvements will be built as part of this phase. 4

13 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Phase 3E - All remaining features of the CC 215 will be completed in this phase. This work includes building the westbound CC 215 through the interchange. All signing, lighting, and drainage improvements necessary for these improvements will be built as part of this phase. This phase will also include landscaping and aesthetics for the entire system to system interchange. Phase 4 US 95 at Horse Drive Phase 4 was completed in May This phase: constructed a new service interchange; and constructed drainage, lighting, signing, landscape and aesthetic features and ITS improvements. Phase 5 US 95 at Kyle Canyon Road The Phase 5 improvements will be constructed within the existing US 95 right-of-way and consist of: Constructing a new service interchange; Perpetuating drainage, lighting, signing and ITS improvements; Improving landscape and aesthetic features; and Relocating utilities as necessary. A Re-Evaluation of the Environmental Assessment for US 95 Northwest Washington Avenue to Kyle Canyon project (FHWA-NV-EA 07.01) was completed in December The document was prepared to re-evaluate the changed conditions and determine if the original Environmental Assessment (EA), signed October 4, 2007 and FONSI signed May 7, It was determined that there were no changes in the project scope or general limits and purpose and need remain the same. The current design may eliminates the Park and Ride Facility identified in the EA south of the Durango Interchange. The RTC has built the new Centennial Hills Transit Center and Park and Ride south of the parcel outlined in the EA. The Centennial Hills Transit Center and Park & Ride includes approximately 900 surface parking spaces for cars, transit shelter and transit bays for future express transit service and local routes. The parcel identified by the EA, north of Oso Blanca Road, is no longer needed for the Park-N-Ride Facility.. 2. Project Schedule The overall project, as shown in Table 1, is scheduled to be substantially complete in March The individual element schedules are from the risk-adjusted project 70th percentile schedule after implementing risk response strategies. 5

14 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Table 1 Project Schedule Task Name Start Finish US 95 Northwest Corridor 10/1/2007 3/31/2029 Environmental Clearance (Completed) 10/1/ /1/2007 Phase 1 - Washington Avenue to Ann Road 8/2/2008 6/30/2013 Design (Completed) 8/2/2008 6/8/2010 Construction (Completed) 6/8/2010 6/30/2013 Phase 2 - Ann Road to Kyle Canyon Road 6/1/2009 6/30/2020 Design - Phase 2A (Completed) 6/1/2009 3/1/2014 Construction - Phase 2A (Under Construction) 3/1/2014 8/31/2015 Design - Phase 2B 7/1/2014 6/30/2016 Construction - Phase 2B 1/1/2019 6/30/2020 Phase 3 - /CC-215 Northern Beltway Interchange 6/1/2009 3/31/2029 Preliminary Design - Phase 3/Final Design Phase 3A 6/1/ /30/2014 Construction - Phase 3A 5/1/2015 5/1/2017 Design - Phase 3B 9/30/ /1/2018 Construction - Phase 3B 10/1/2018 3/31/2020 Design - Phase 3C 9/30/ /1/2021 Construction - Phase 3C 10/1/ /1/2023 Design - Phase 3D 9/30/ /1/2024 Construction - Phase 3D 10/1/ /31/2026 Design - Phase 3E 9/30/ /1/2027 Construction - Phase 3E 10/1/2027 3/31/2029 Phase 4 - at Horse Drive 6/1/2008 5/27/2011 Design (Completed) 6/1/2008 5/31/2009 Construction (Completed) 6/1/2009 5/27/2011 Phase 5 - at Kyle Canyon Road 8/1/2014 5/1/2020 Design 8/1/2014 8/1/2017 Construction 11/1/2018 5/1/2020 6

15 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE A comparison of the project schedules from the 2009 Initial Financial Plan through the Annual Updates are shown in Table 2. Table 2 Project Schedule Comparison Activity Name 2009 Initial Financial Plan 2010 Annual Update 2011 Annual Update 2012 Annual Update 2013 Annual Update 2014 Annual Update Start Finish Start Finish Start Finish Start Finish Start Finish Start Finish Finding of No Significant (FONSI) 10/ / / / / / / / / / / /2007 Phase 1 - Washington Avenue to Ann Road Design 8/2008 8/2010 8/2008 8/2010 8/2008 6/2010 8/2008 6/2010 8/2008 6/2010 Construction FY 2011 FY /2010 9/2012 8/2010 9/2012 6/2010 7/2013 6/2010 7/2013 6/2010 7/2013 Phase 2 - Ann Road to Kyle Canyon Road Design 6/2009 6/2012 6/2009 6/2012 6/ /2013 6/2009 6/2016 Construction FY 2026 FY / /2030 6/ / /2013 6/2015 Design - Phase 2A 6/2009 3/2014 Construction - Phase 2A 3/2014 8/2015 3/2014 8/2015 Design - Phase 2B 7/2014 6/2016 Construction - Phase 2B 1/2019 6/2020 1/2019 6/2020 Phase 3 - /CC-215 Northern Beltway Interchange Design 6/2009 6/2012 6/2009 6/2012 6/2009 6/2012 6/2009 9/2015 Construction FY 2012 FY / /2013 Design - Phase 3A 6/ /2014 Construction - Phase 3A 2/2013 1/2015 2/2013 1/ /2015 9/2017 5/2015 5/2017 Design - Phase 3B 9/ /2018 Construction - Phase 3B 10/2018 3/ /2018 3/2020 Design - Phase 3C 9/ /2021 Construction - Phase 3C 1/2015 1/2017 1/2015 1/ /2021 4/ / /2023 Design - Phase 3D 9/ /2024 Construction - Phase 3D 1/2017 1/2019 1/2017 1/ / / / /2026 Design - Phase 3E 9/ /2027 Construction - Phase 3E 1/2019 7/2020 1/2019 7/ /2027 3/ /2027 3/2029 Phase 4 - at Horse Drive Design 6/2008 5/2009 6/2008 5/2009 6/2008 5/2009 6/2008 5/2009 6/2008 5/2009 Construction FY 2009 FY / /2010 6/2009 6/2011 6/2009 6/2011 6/2009 6/2011 6/2009 6/2011 Phase 5 - at Kyle Canyon Road Design 1/2013 1/2015 1/2013 1/2015 1/2013 1/2015 7/2023 6/2025 8/2014 8/2017 Construction FY 2016 FY /2018 9/2020 6/ /2027 6/ / /2035 9/ /2018 5/2020 US 95 Northwest Corridor FY 2008 FY / / / / / / /2007 9/ /2007 3/2029 The Initial Financial Plan schedule focused on the construction phases of the various projects contained within the US 95 Northwest Corridor program; therefore information was not available for the sub-phases for the initial plan and subsequent annual updates. The 2014 Annual Update includes breakout information for the design and construction phases of each project, where applicable for comparison purposes. 7

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17 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE 3. Project Cost All project costs shown in this document are presented as Year-of-Expenditure (YOE) dollars at the 70% risk-based confidence level for the overall project. YOE dollars are equal to current dollars escalated to the midpoint of expenditure for each element of the project. A Cost Risk Assessment (CRA) workshop was held July 1 & 2, 2014 for the US 95 Northwest Corridor program. The overall objective of the CRA workshop was to validate and quantify uncertainty and risk in the project cost and schedule for the three remaining projects within the program. Phase 2 - Ann Road to Kyle Canyon Road Phase 3 - /CC-215 Northern Beltway Interchange Phase 5 - at Kyle Canyon Road During the CRA workshop the project team, working collaboratively with independent subject matter experts, reviewed the base cost and schedule and identified, characterized, and analyzed risks. This workshop was accomplished in a structured setting and led by an independent Risk Lead. To determine the 70% risk-based confidence level a cost risk analysis or risk-based modeling tool was incorporated to model the overall risk of the project. Risk-based analysis provides a distribution of probabilities that a project will not exceed an estimated dollar figure. Typically, agencies report the project risk-based estimation using the 70 th percent confidence interval after the implementation of risk response strategies. As of December 31, 2014, the total cost estimate of the US 95 Northwest Corridor project is estimated to be $ million with $ million in costs left to complete at the 70% confidence level. Table 3 depicts the cost estimate breakdown for each of the major project elements including costs spent to date and costs left to complete the project. It should be noted that construction engineering and administration costs are included in the construction element total. For a more detailed breakdown of base costs see the US 95 Northwest Corridor Cost Risk Assessment report in Appendix F. Table 3 Total Project Cost by Cost Element Project Cost Element Costs to Date Costs in Millions ($ s) 70 th Percentile 2014 Estimate Cost to Complete Environmental Document $3.81 $3.81 Completed Phase 1 - Washington Avenue to Ann Road Design $3.54 $3.54 Completed 9

18 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Project Cost Element Costs to Date Costs in Millions ($ s) 70 th Percentile 2014 Estimate Cost to Complete Right of Way $0.17 $0.17 Completed Construction $82.14 $82.14 Completed Phase 2 - Ann Road to Kyle Canyon Road Phase 2A Total $85.85 Completed Design $1.35 $1.35 Completed Right of Way $0.15 $0.15 Completed Construction $15.04 $37.52 $22.48 Phase 2B Design $2.22 $2.22 Right of Way $0.15 $0.15 Construction $37.52 $37.52 Total $16.54 $78.91 $62.37 Phase 3 - /CC-215 Northern Beltway Interchange Phase 3A Preliminary Engineering/Design Phase 3A $7.63 $7.63 Completed Right of Way $0.52 $0.52 Completed Construction $0.00 $57.47 $57.47 Phase 3B Design $0.00 $2.08 $2.08 Right of Way $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Construction $0.00 $18.93 $18.93 Phase 3C Design $0.00 $6.96 $6.96 Right of Way $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Construction $0.00 $88.53 $88.53 Phase 3D Design $0.00 $6.59 $6.59 Right of Way $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Construction $0.00 $86.39 $

19 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Phase 3E Project Cost Element Costs to Date Costs in Millions ($ s) 70 th Percentile 2014 Estimate Cost to Complete Design $0.00 $1.89 $1.89 Right of Way $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Construction $0.00 $25.03 $25.03 Phase 4 - at Horse Drive Total $8.14 $ $ Design $2.70 $2.70 Completed Right of Way $11.30 $11.30 Completed Construction $42.00 $42.00 Completed Phase 5 - at Kyle Canyon Road Total $56.00 $56.00 Design $3.09 $3.09 Right of Way $0.00 $0.00 Construction $38.79 $38.79 Total $41.88 $41.88 US 95 Northwest Corridor Total $ $ $ All costs shown as costs to date were developed from NDOT programming papers contained in Appendix D. The costs depicted for the environmental assessment were considered all environmental costs spent to date through October 2007 when the FONSI was determined. The remaining environmental costs spent to date through December 31, 2014 were assumed to be classified as preliminary engineering costs and were used on the Phase 3. 11

20 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE A comparison of the project costs by element from the 2009 Initial Financial Plan and the Annual Updates from are shown in Table 4. Table 4 Cost Comparison by Cost Element Project Cost Element 2009 Initial Financial Plan Costs in Millions ($ s) 2010 Annual Update 2011 Annual Update 2012 Annual Update 2013 Annual Update 2014 Annual Update Net Change since Last Annual Update Net Change since Initial Financial Plan Environmental Document $3.81 N/A N/A Phase 1 - Washington Avenue to Ann Road Design $3.30 $3.60 $3.60 $3.50 $3.50 $3.54 $0.04 $0.24 Right of Way $0.00 $0.10 $0.10 $0.20 $0.20 $0.17 ($0.03) $0.17 Construction $ $76.00 $76.00 $82.00 $81.60 $82.14 $0.54 ($67.06) Phase 2 - Ann Road to Kyle Canyon Road TOTAL $ $79.70 $79.70 $85.70 $85.30 $85.85 $0.55 ($66.65) Design $6.00 $6.30 $1.70 $1.60 $2.70 $0.87 ($2.43) Right-of-Way $6.50 $13.60 $0.00 $0.20 $0.10 $0.20 ($6.20) Construction $ $ $58.00 $58.50 $71.90 $3.14 ($117.86) Phase 2A Design $1.35 Right of Way $0.15 Construction $37.52 Phase 2B Design $2.22 Right of Way $0.15 Construction $37.52 Phase 3 - at CC-215 TOTAL $ $ $59.70 $60.30 $74.70 $78.91 $4.21 ($126.49) Design $12.60 $14.10 $16.40 $15.90 $19.80 $5.35 $12.55 Right-of-Way $0.00 $0.30 $2.90 $2.50 $2.40 ($1.88) $0.52 Construction $ $ $ $ $ $26.15 $45.35 Phase 3A Preliminary Engineering/Design Phase 3A $7.63 Right of Way $0.52 Construction $57.47 Phase 3B Design $2.08 Right of Way $

21 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Project Cost Element 2009 Initial Financial Plan Costs in Millions ($ s) 2010 Annual Update 2011 Annual Update 2012 Annual Update 2013 Annual Update 2014 Annual Update Construction $18.93 Phase 3C Design $6.96 Right of Way $0.00 Construction $88.53 Phase 3D Design $6.59 Right of Way $0.00 Construction $86.39 Phase 3E Design $1.89 Right of Way $0.00 Construction $25.03 Phase 4 - at Horse Drive Net Change since Last Annual Update Net Change since Initial Financial Plan TOTAL $ $ $ $ $ $ $29.62 $58.42 Design $3.00 $3.00 $2.70 $2.70 $2.70 $2.70 $0.00 ($0.30) Right of Way $13.00 $11.30 $11.30 $11.30 $11.30 $11.30 $0.00 ($1.70) Construction $53.10 $51.30 $42.00 $42.00 $42.00 $42.00 $0.00 ($11.10) Phase 5 - at Kyle Canyon Road TOTAL $69.10 $65.60 $56.00 $56.00 $56.00 $56.00 $0.00 ($13.10) Design $2.80 $2.90 $4.60 $4.70 $5.00 $3.09 ($1.69) $0.29 Right of Way $0.20 $1.40 $0.30 $0.30 $0.60 $0.00 ($0.60) ($0.20) Construction $35.70 $35.40 $58.10 $60.00 $55.50 $38.79 ($16.71) $3.09 TOTAL $38.70 $39.60 $63.00 $65.00 $61.10 $41.88 ($19.22) $3.18 US 95 Northwest Corridor TOTAL $ $ $ $ $ $ $$18.96 ($140.84) 13

22 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE 3.1 Cost Estimating Methodology Preliminary cost estimates for the US 95 Northwest Corridor project include estimates for construction items, design, construction engineering, right-of-way acquisition, utilities relocation, and contingencies. Quantities for the major items of construction were estimated from preliminary engineering plans and investigations. Estimated unit costs for these major items were developed from actual bid prices for similar work in the Las Vegas urban area. The primary source of current bid prices is the NDOT Reasonable Cost database which is updated as contracts are awarded. In addition to the cost of the major construction items, other elements of the preliminary cost estimates, such as mobilization and traffic control, have been accounted for as lump sum allowances or percentages of the cost of other elements. A Cost Risk Assessment (CRA) workshop was held July 1 & 2, 2014 for the remaining projects (Phases 2, 3 and 5) of the US 95 Northwest Corridor project. The overall objective of the workshop was to update the base costs, uncertainty, project schedule and risks for these projects. The Risk Lead, along with the Project Team and the various subject matter experts (SMEs), performed a baseline risk assessment. As part of the risk assessment the cost estimates were reviewed by an independent Cost Lead by verifying the accuracy and reasonableness of the total cost estimate and schedule. During the risk assessment workshop, threats and opportunities were identified, and the Risk Team quantified likelihoods and impact ranges that best modeled the threats and opportunities. Uncertainty ranges were developed for the cost estimate that represents each project s current state of development. More information is provided on project risks in Section 8. For more information see the US 95 Northwest Corridor Cost Risk Assessment report in Appendix F. 3.2 Escalation All cost estimates in this Financial Plan are in year-of-expenditure dollars. Year-of-expenditure costs are calculated by applying an estimated annual escalation rate to base year cost estimates. As part of the CRA modeling, escalation rate forecasts were developed. To account for price increases between the date the base cost estimate was created and when the actual work will be performed, the CRA modeling requires escalation rate forecasts for construction (CN), preliminary engineering (PE), and right-of-way (ROW) costs incurred by a project. Each project element s (PE, ROW, CN) escalation rate is utilized to develop YOE dollars by escalating to the midpoint of each element s completion. Escalation is the measurement of the change in project costs due to general price inflation and ordinary changes in commodity supply and demand. As the price of a construction component changes, the overall costs of a construction project typically varies with it. In this analysis, 14

23 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE escalation rates are applied for preliminary engineering, right-of-way, and construction component costs in order to estimate the future project costs under the baseline schedule and any extensions due to schedule delay. National data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for several series; Concrete, Steel, Asphalt, Machinery & Equipment, Aggregate, Lumber & Wood Products, Electric Lighting Equipment, and other Minor Inputs (including Chemicals/Resins, Paint, etc.) were utilized along with State data from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics for construction labor wages to develop forecasted construction escalation rates. An overall construction price escalation rate forecast was developed by combining escalation forecasts of each component, based on weights reflecting that component s share of the cost of a typical roadway project. Preliminary engineering escalation forecasts were developed using State wage data from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics for civil engineer wages. Right of way acquisition cost escalation forecasts were developed via State data available from the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy (in partnership with the University of Wisconsin, School of Business). The escalation forecasts were developed utilizing a simulation model incorporating curve fitting of probability distributions that best match each series historical price change over multiple historical year groups. The final escalation forecasts by year for construction, preliminary engineering, and right-of-way reflect the median forecasted values produced within the simulation model. The escalation rates utilized in the risk assessment for are shown in Table 5. Table 5 Escalation Rates Year PE ROW CN % 4.02% 3.19% % 4.12% 3.33% % 4.35% 3.72% % 4.58% 3.94% % 4.75% 3.80% % 4.83% 4.01% % 5.28% 4.05% % 4.11% 4.28% 2022 and Beyond 2.74% 2.94% 4.51% 15

24 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE 4. Project Funds Revenues to support transportation investments within the US 95 Northwest Corridor project will come from a variety of public, tax-based sources, raised at either the local, state or federal level. All future funding depicted within this financial plan is itemized in the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) contained within Appendix C and is considered dedicated to the corresponding listed element of the US 95 Northwest Corridor project. All past funding is covered in NDOT Project and Programming Details as shown in Appendix D. Exhibit 2 presents the total project funding amount that is available by source; federal, state, or local. Exhibit 2 US 95 Northwest Corridor Funding Share by Source, Millions ($ s) 16

25 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Table 6 details the current programmed funds for the US 95 Northwest Corridor project. Table 6 Programmed Funding in Millions ($ s) Funding Source Environmental Clearance (Completed) Previous Funding To Date FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY FY FY FY TOTALS State Funds 1 $3.81 $3.81 Phase 1 - Washington Avenue to Ann Road (Completed) Various Federal Funds 2 $51.47 $51.47 Various State Funds 2 $34.19 $34.19 Various Local Funds 2 $0.19 $0.19 Phase 1 Total $85.85 $85.85 Phase 2 - Ann Road to Kyle Canyon Road Phase 2A NHPP 3,4 $28.94 $28.94 SAFETEA-LU NHS 3,4 $2.46 $2.46 State Matching 3,4 $2.04 $2.04 City of Las Vegas 3,4 $1.47 $1.47 STP 3,4 $7.38 $7.38 Phase 2A Totals $42.29 $42.29 Phase 2B NHPP 5 $26.36 $26.36 STP 5 $8.79 $8.79 State Matching 5 $1.85 $1.85 Phase 2B Totals $37.00 $

26 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Funding Source Previous Funding To Date Phase 3 - /CC-215 Northern Beltway Interchange Preliminary Design/Design Phase 3A FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY FY FY FY TOTALS State Funds 1 $1.06 $1.06 HIGH PRIORITY, SAFTEA-LU 1,6 $13.99 $13.99 State Matching 6 $0.74 $0.74 Phase 3A State Matching 7 $1.42 $1.42 Clark County Regional Flood Control District 7 $17.67 $17.67 HIGH PRIORITY, SAFTEA-LU 7 $0.66 $0.66 NHPP 7 $20.91 $20.91 RTC of Southern Nevada (Gas Tax) 7 $6.40 $6.40 SAFETEA-LU HWY SAFETY PROG 7 $0.61 $0.61 STP 7 $4.75 $4.75 Phase 3/3A Totals $15.79 $52.51 $68.20 Phase 3B NHPP 8 $12.18 $12.18 State Matching 8 $0.86 $0.86 STP 8 $4.06 $4.06 Phase 3B Totals $17.10 $17.10 Phase 3C Clark County Beltway Program 5 $45.00 $45.00 STP Clark County 5 $10.00 $10.00 $20.00 Phase 3C Totals $10.00 $45.00 $10.00 $

27 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Funding Source Phase 4 - at Horse Drive (Completed) Previous Funding To Date FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY FY FY FY TOTALS HIGH PRIORITY, SAFTEA-LU 9 $4.53 $4.53 SAFETEA-LU STP LAS VEGAS 9 $19.42 $19.42 STEA STP LAS VEGAS 9 $1.58 $1.58 City of Las Vegas 9 $9.46 $9.46 RTC of Southern Nevada 9 $21.00 $21.00 Phase 4 Totals $56.00 $56.00 Phase 5 - at Kyle Canyon Road Fuel Revenue Indexing (FRI) 5,8 $2.00 $6.71 $8.71 Phase 5 Totals $2.00 $6.71 $8.71 US 95 Northwest Corridor Total $ $54.41 $0.00 $37.00 $17.10 $16.71 $45.00 $10.00 $0.00 $ Sources: See Appendix C and D 1 - Project and Programming Details Project ID Project and Programming Details Project ID Project and Programming Details Project ID Project and Programming Details Project ID Regional Transportation Plan : December 13, Project and Programming Details Project ID Project and Programming Details Project ID Transportation Improvement Program for FY : August 14, Rev October Project and Programming Details Project ID

28 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE The following are descriptions for the funding sources for the future projects within the US 95 Northwest Corridor program. 4.1 Federal Funds 4.10 Federal Transportation Funding The Federal way Trust Fund was established in Revenues include taxes on gasoline (18.4 cents per gallon), diesel (24.4 cents per gallon), tires over 40 pounds, truck and trailer sales, heavy vehicle use, and interest. Most of the funding Nevada utilizes is received via apportionments and is distributed to various programs such as the National way Performance Program and Surface Transportation, Program noted below. The Federal Aid way Program is reimbursable funding with matching funds (state, local and/or private) required for most of the programs. Nevada s match is typically 5% (95% Federal) due to the high percentage of federal lands in the state.. Normally, funding levels are authorized in a six-year surface transportation bill. In recent years, federal transportation legislation has been funded via a series of short-term continuing resolutions, with the exception of Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21) which covered federal fiscal years 2013 and The most recent federal bill, the way and Transportation Funding Act of 2014 was signed into law by President Obama on August 8, This legislation provides federal transportation funding through May 2015 and provides additional funding for the Federal way Trust Fund which was experiencing a shortfall National way Performance Program (NHPP) The NHPP provides support for the condition and performance of the National way System (NHS), for the construction of new facilities on the NHS, and to ensure that investments of Federal-aid funds in highway construction are directed to support progress toward the achievement of performance targets established in a State's asset management plan for the NHS. This program is funded by contract authority from the way Account of the way Trust Fund. Funds are subject to the overall Federal-aid obligation limitation. MAP-21 has a new approach to core formula program funding, authorizing a lump sum total instead of individual authorizations for each program. Once Nevada s share of the total is calculated, it is divided up by program within the State. The federal share is typically 95 percent Surface Transportation Program (STP) This program is available for projects statewide and it is the normal practice of NDOT to use this funding source for major projects on the interstate highways and major state routes. The Surface Transportation Program (STP) provides flexible funding that may be used by States and localities for projects to preserve and improve the conditions and performance on 20

29 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE any Federal-aid highway, bridge and tunnel projects on any public road, pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure, and transit capital projects, including intercity bus terminals. MAP-21 has a new approach to core formula program funding, authorizing a lump sum total instead of individual authorizations for each program. Once Nevada s share of the total is calculated, it is divided up by program within the State. The federal share is typically 95 percent. This program also has a sub-allocation for urbanized areas, including a sub-allocation that can only be used in Clark County SAFETEA-LU ( Priority and HWY Safety Program) In SAFETEA-LU Section 1702, Congress earmarked federal funds for projects nationwide. Generally, these funds are not available for other projects; although the funding for some projects may be loaned to other projects within the list. The federal share is typically 95 percent. 4.2 State Funds 4.21 State way Fund (NDOT State Gas Tax & State Matching Per Nevada State Constitution Article 9, Section 5, the proceeds from the imposition of any license or registration fee and other charge with respect to the operation of any motor vehicle upon any public highway in Nevada and the proceeds from the imposition of any excise tax on gasoline or other motor vehicle fuel shall, except costs of administration, be used exclusively for the construction, maintenance, and repair of the public highways of this State. way Fund revenue sources include gas and special fuel tax, motor carrier fees, registration fees, and driver s license fees. Nevada Revised Statute ( NRS ) provides the statutory authority for these revenues and expenditures plus other pertinent revenue and expenditures to flow through the State way Fund and caps the cost of administration incurred by the Department of Motor Vehicles SB5 Funding Senate Bill 5, passed at the th Special Session of the legislature, provides funding via a transfer to the Nevada Department of Transportation from the Fund for Cleaning up Discharges of Petroleum. This money must be used for the construction, reconstruction, improvement and maintenance of public roads. Per SB5, 70% of this funding is allocated for use in Clark County, 20% is allocated for use in Washoe County, and 10% is available for use in other counties. 4.3 Local Funds 4.31 Local Funds The Clark County Regional Flood Control District has provided funding for the Clark County Regional Flood Control Facility CNWE 0301 and CNWE 0304 along CC-215 from an existing 21

30 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE concrete channel (East Tenaya Way) north to US 95. This project has been incorporated into the Phase 3A project. Additional funding for the Phase 3A project is also coming from the RTC of Southern Nevada (Gas Tax) Fuel Revenue Indexing The RTC partnered in 2013 with local leaders, our business community, state legislature, the Governor and the Clark County Commission to support Fuel Revenue Indexing to keep pace with material and labor costs, generate funds for critically needed transportation projects and create jobs. From January 2014 to December 2016, a portion of what drivers pay at the pump will help fund transportation projects throughout Clark County. For motorists, this averages about a dime a day over the three-year time period. This investment at the pump will generate approximately $700 million to fund 199 projects in Southern Nevada, ultimately creating more than 9,000 jobs. After 2016, in order for fuel revenue indexing to continue in Clark County, it will go to the vote of the people via a ballot initiative. 5. Financing Issues At this time no funding through bonds or other types of financing is shown for any of the future projects within the corridor. 6. Cash Flow Since funding sources for the US 95 Northwest Corridor project are designated for each project individually the cash flow for the overall program is presented separately for each project. Monies cannot necessarily be moved from project to project because of the many different funding sources. 22

31 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE 6.1 Phase 2A As Exhibit 3 illustrates, the Phase 2A funds will be sufficient to cover Phase 2A total costs leading to an approximate $10.8 million funding surplus. Exhibit 3 Phase 2A Interchange Annual and Cumulative Cash Flow (Millions $ s) 6.3 Phase 2B As Exhibit 4 illustrates, the Phase 2B funds are expected to be available in FY 2017 and are currently insufficient to cover Phase 2B total costs leading to an approximate $2.4 million funding gap. To close this funding gap, NDOT will take steps to acquire funding from state, local or federal sources. Exhibit 4 Phase 2B Annual and Cumulative Cash Flow (Millions $ s) 23

32 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE 6.4 Phase 3A Exhibit 5 shows that the anticipated funding will be sufficient to cover all of the Phase 3A costs leading to an overall surplus of approximately $2.7 million. Exhibit 5 Phase 3A Annual and Cumulative Cash Flow (Millions $ s) 6.5 Phase 3B Exhibit 6 illustrates the cash flow for Phase 3B. The anticipated funding will be insufficient to cover the expected costs leading to an overall deficit of approximately, $21 million in FY To close this funding gap, NDOT will take steps to acquire additional funding from state, local or federal sources. Exhibit 6 Phase 3B Annual and Cumulative Cash Flow (Millions $ s) 24

33 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE 6.6 Phase 3C Exhibit 7 shows the cash flow for the Phase 3C project. Exhibit 7 Phase 3C Annual and Cumulative Cash Flow (Millions $ s) 6.7 Phase 3D No funding has currently been identified for Phase 3D. The project is currently anticipated to begin construction in FY NDOT will take steps to acquire funding from state, local or federal sources within the next RTP. 6.7 Phase 3E No funding has currently been identified for Phase 3D. The project is currently anticipated to begin construction in FY NDOT will take steps to acquire funding from state, local or federal sources within the next RTP. 25

34 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE 6.7 Phase 5 Exhibit 8 reveals that the available funding for the Phase 5 funds will be insufficient to cover the total costs creating an approximate $3.6 million funding gap beginning in in FY 2016 and increasing to $20.8 million in FY NDOT and Clark County will take steps to acquire funding from state, local or federal sources. Exhibit 8 Phase 5 Annual and Cumulative Cash Flow (Millions $ s) 6.8 Total Project The 2009 Initial Financial Plan developed cash flow results for the overall US 95 Northwest Corridor project, but did not discuss individual project cash flows. Because the funding sources are dedicated to individual projects of the overall US 95 Northwest Corridor project, any comparison should be made at the individual projects level. Because individual project cash flow results are not contained within the 2009 Initial Financial Plan, no relevant comparison can be presented in this Annual Update. 7. P3 Assessment Nevada Revised Statutes through 168 provides legislative authority for transportation projects including methods of authorization. Specifically: NRS Alternative methods of authorization - A public body may authorize a person to develop, construct, improve, maintain or operate, or any combination thereof, a transportation facility pursuant to NRS or

35 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE A public private partnership is currently not being considered by NDOT for the remaining portions of US 95 Northwest Corridor project. NDOT cannot solicit for P3 proposals, but can react to an unsolicited offer. Additional information can also be found in NRS HIGHWAYS, ROADS AND TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES. 8. Risk and Response Strategies NDOT has committed to the implementation of comprehensive risk identification and risk management process for statewide mega-projects, defined by NDOT as any project over $100 million cost. US 95 Northwest Corridor project qualifies as such a project. A Cost Risk Assessment (CRA) workshop was held July 1 & 2, 2014 for the US 95 Northwest Corridor project. The overall objective of the workshop was to update base costs, uncertainty, project schedule and risks for the project. The Risk Lead, along with the Project Team and the various subject matter experts (SMEs), performed a baseline risk assessment of both phases. The potential risk events and elements facing the phases were discussed. During the discussion, the workshop participants identified high risk elements or potential events which may occur that would impact the project. For each risk element identified, it was determined whether the risk would affect cost, schedule, or simultaneously both cost and schedule. During the workshop risk response strategies were developed for key project risks. These response strategies will be added to the Project Risk Management Plan that the Project Manager will utilize to control risk on the project. Key Project Cost and Schedule Risks Phase 2A - Itemized in Table 7 are the top cost and schedule threats and/or opportunities identified in the risk assessment along with any mitigation strategies developed for key risks. For more information see the US 95 Northwest Corridor Cost Risk Assessment report located in Appendix F. Table 7 Phase 2A Risks Threat or Opportunity Pending Change Orders. Currently have one at $1.4M, reserve and additional $500K for over/under runs and additional change orders. Response Strategy Hold a reserve to pay for pending change orders 27

36 US 95 NORTHWEST CORRIDOR 2014 FINANCIAL PLAN ANNUAL UPDATE Phase 2B - Itemized in Table 8 are the top cost and schedule threats and/or opportunities identified in the risk assessment along with any mitigation strategies developed for key risks. For more information see the US 95 Northwest Corridor Cost Risk Assessment report located in Appendix F. Table 8 Phase 2B Risks Threat or Opportunity Intersection of Kyle Canyon and with Forest Service visitor center installation gets advanced to be construction with 2B. Currently do not have any agreements in place. Need agreements for manhole covers, service pedestals, etc. There is a low risk this could increase time in the base schedule. The cost is for rerouting if not all metered services are available. Different Site Conditions. This is highly likely in any excavation area. Response Strategy Continue to work with City to determine whether Phase 5 should be combined into Phase 2B. Currently ample time in schedule to get agreements in place. Hold risk reserve for potential change orders for differing site conditions Phase 3A - Itemized in Table 9 are the top cost and schedule threats and/or opportunities identified in the risk assessment along with any mitigation strategies developed for key risks. For more information see the US 95 Northwest Corridor Cost Risk Assessment report located in Appendix F. Table 9 Phase 3A Risks Threat or Opportunity Risks associated with shaft construction. Risk is obstructions, caliche, water table, dealing with shaft construction. Kern River gas line conflicts. Risk is to protect in place for package 1 end lightweight fill $0.5M bridge across $1.5M Added costs for constructability issues of an additional 0.5 across the board Response Strategy Consider transferring risk to contractor via specification or consider capping the risk. Include prequalification's requirements in specifications for shaft subcontractor. Protect in place measures for the WS Ramp. Update the base costs accordingly Phase 3B - Itemized in Table 10 are the top cost and schedule threats and/or opportunities identified in the risk assessment along with any mitigation strategies developed for key risks. For more information see the US 95 Northwest Corridor Cost Risk Assessment report located in Appendix F. 28