CIPFA LONDON DIVISION AUTUMN SEMINAR. The changing shape of London where next for public services?

Transcription

1 CIPFA LONDON DIVISION AUTUMN SEMINAR The changing shape of London where next for public services?

2 CONTENTS 10:00 Chair s Introduction & Welcome John Chance, Chair CIPFA London Division What are the Issues? Gareth Davies, Partner, Mazars Combining Fiscal Realism with a Plan for Deep Reform Dr Rick Muir, Associate Director for Public Service Reform IPPR Adapting to the Realities delivering the services that London can afford Jon Rowney, Head of Fair Funding, Performance and Procurement, London Councils Panel Debate Lunch 2

3 What are the issues? Gareth Davies Partner and Head of Public Services, Mazars LLP

4 Driving forces Demographics Social Values & Behaviours Political and economic changes Environment Technology 4

5 Demographics 1. Demographics An ageing population

6 London population Average annual increase 88,000 10m by 2034? 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Source: GLA datastore 6

7 London population A young city, 2 births for every death 7

8 London population BAME population forecast to exceed white population by 2040 White BAME 6,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 1,000, Source: GLA datastore 8

9 9 Implications?

10 Environment 2. Environment

11 A sustainable city? London used 41,000 GWh of gas & electricity in 2010 most of any UK region London recycles less of its household waste than the rest of England 34% v 43% London is the driest part of the UK and each Londoner uses 167 gallons of water a day, compared to 149 gallons in rest of England London is the most polluted part of the UK air pollution has been at illegal levels since 2005 London has the highest proportion of green space of any major world city 40% 11

12 12 Implications?

13 Technology Technology

14 14 Technology disruption and solutions?

15 Social values and behaviours Social Values & Behaviours

16 Changing attitudes and behaviour Flourishing in diversity London s great achievement Social media, social lending, social everything Generation Y digital natives, vocal, collaborative, opinionated New opportunities for community solutions 16

17 Political and economic changes Austerity, CG funding, council tax levels, benefit cap Devolution and governance London v rest of UK Impact on London of changed relationship with rest of EU International capital flows London as safe haven Jobs, London living wage, under-employment, self-employment SMEs, innovation and growth 17

18 Many of the challenges are about access For people to high quality education to a decent job within reach to affordable housing to natural resources to clean and safe streets to entertainment and a social life to reliable care For businesses to skilled workers to affordable capital and natural resources to markets for their services It s why cities exist supported by effective public services 18

19 Pulling it together Have we spotted the relevant mega-trends and local factors? Do we understand how they will interact with each other? Can public services help to harness London s strengths, new technology, new powers, changing attitudes and behaviour to close the yawning gap between need and resources and ensure access? 19

20 Combining fiscal realism with a plan for deep reform Rick Muir

21 Public services need to change 1. Resource constraint 2. The rise of complex problems 3. People want to be treated like people

22 Fiscal realism

23 Fiscal realism

24 The world is more complex

25 The world is more complex

26 The world is more complex

27 People want to be treated like people

28 People want to be treated like people

29 So, Rick, what s the plan?

30 Three big steps 1. Devolve 2. Connect 3. Deepen

31 Devolve

32 Connect pooled funding multi agency teams frontline autonomy a different management culture collaborative infrastructures as well as competitive incentives

33 Deepen

34 The biggest challenge

35 Thank you

36 CIPFA London Division Autumn Seminar Adapting to the Realities delivering the services that London can afford Jon Rowney London Councils 24 October 2014

37 The Agenda 1. London Councils: An Introduction 2. The challenging financial outlook for London 3. The unsustainable local government finance system 4. Strategic Considerations 5. Fundamental change Preparing for CSR 2015

38 London Councils: An Introduction

39 We are a cross-party organisation representing London's 32 borough councils and the City of London. We develop policy and provide London-wide services such as the Freedom Pass.

40 The challenging financial outlook for London

41 Levels of central government grant are falling

42 Financial Pressure Population Demography Adult Social Care Funding Reform School places Housing

43 London Local Government: The Financial Outlook By 2020, Overall Financial Pressure in London: 3.4 billion

44 The unsustainable local government finance system

45 Five Overarching Concerns 1. Ring-fencing of Whitehall Budgets 2. The finance system is too complex and opaque 3. A lack of stability undermines long-term planning 4. The lack of a direct financial incentive 5. An absence of a clear strategy for local government finance

46 The need for a clear strategy for local government finance

47 Strategic Considerations

48 Strategic Considerations What is the potential for fundamental reconfiguration of current service delivery models across all locally delivered public services? Is a radical review of the current statutory functions of local government required? Should London local government make the case for new or alternative funding streams? Potential for more active strategies to address service pressures?

49 Fundamental change Preparing for CSR 2015

50 Fiscal Devolution and Greater Financial Autonomy Fiscal Devolution Council Tax Business Rates Stamp Duty Land Tax Annual tax on enveloped dwellings, and Capital gains property tax. Fees and Charges

51 Increasing dependence on locally raised income

52 Funding Local Government: Risk, Reward and Opportunity Can you build more homes? Is your local economy thriving? Is unemployment dropping? New Homes Bonus Grant More local business rates Lower council tax support costs Reduction in core government grant Less local business rates Higher council tax support costs

53 Fundamental Change Service Delivery Employment, Skills and Welfare to Work Complex Needs: Troubled Families and Offender Rehabilitation Housing Health & Social Care

54 Questions?

55 Contact Details Jon Rowney Strategic Lead: Finance, Performance & Procurement London Councils Tel:

56 Questions for the panel? Panel debate Gareth Davies Rick Muir Jon Rowney John Chance 56