Innovation in Energy Technology

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1 Innovation in Energy Technology COMPARING NATIONAL INNOVATION SYSTEMS AT THE SECTORAL LEVEL SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVA SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVA SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVA SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVA SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVA SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVA SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVA SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVA SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVA SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVA SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVA SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVA SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S TION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVA N SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION S CIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SCIENC CE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNOVATION SC CIENCE INNOVATION SCIENCE INNO CE INNOVA

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3 Innovation in Energy Technology COMPARING NATIONAL INNOVATION SYSTEMS AT THE SECTORAL LEVEL ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

4 ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 30 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation s statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members. This work is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. OECD 2006 No reproduction, copy, transmission or translation of this publication may be made without written permission. Applications should be sent to OECD Publishing: rights@oecd.org or by fax (33 1) Permission to photocopy a portion of this work should be addressed to the Centre français d'exploitation du droit de copie, 20, rue des Grands-Augustins, Paris, France (contact@cfcopies.com).

5 FOREWORD 3 Foreword The OECD Working Party on Innovation and Technology Policy (TIP) launched three case studies in 2002 to examine sectoral innovation systems, recognising that national innovation systems and policy needs vary across technological fields and industry sectors. The three case studies focused on pharmaceutical biotechnology, knowledge-intensive service activities and energy technology. This report presents a synthesis of the case study on the innovation of energy technologies, which was intended to: 1) examine the energy technology innovation system in participating countries; 2) evaluate the effectiveness of the innovation systems by assessing their economic, environmental, and energy security benefits; and 3) perform cross-country analysis to delineate policy implications. The energy case study was conducted by designated experts from nine participating countries who agreed to prepare national studies of the innovation processes of hydrogen fuel cells, oil and gas, and renewable energy technologies, with fuel cells as the common technology to be examined by all participating countries. The studies examine the drivers of energy innovation; the processes of knowledge creation, diffusion and exploitation; and the roles of public/private partnerships, intellectual property rights and globalisation in the innovation process. This publication contains extended summaries of these national reports as well as a synthesis of the key conclusions from them. 1 Because of the relatively large number of studies on hydrogen fuel cells, it was possible to carry out a more comprehensive cross-country analysis on this technology, and a substantially larger part of this report is devoted to fuel cell technology innovation systems of the participating countries, with a more limited analysis of the innovation systems of oil and gas. This report draws on the contributions of the national experts who participated in the project and in many cases co-ordinated the input of additional members of their research teams: Bruce Bowie, Richelle Dabrowski and Annie Desgagne (Canada); Bernard Bourgeois and Yvan Faure-Miller (France); Juergen Wengel (Germany); Oronzo Tampone and Alicia Mignone (Italy); Akira Maeda (Japan); Sung-Chul Shin and Jung Kyung Yu (Korea); Helge Godoe, Aslaug Mikkelsen and Jon Moxnes Steineke (Norway); Roy Williamson (United Kingdom); Inja Paik, Michael Curtis and John Nail (United States). Inja Paik (United States) chaired the study. From the OECD Secretariat, Jerry Sheehan served as the overall co-ordinator of the project, with assistance from Gudrun Maass and Yukiko Fukasaku. Emmanuel Hassan prepared a bibliometric analysis of patents and publications related to fuel cell technologies, with statistical support from Cristina Serra-Vallejo, Sandrine Kergroach and Corinne Doenges. Madeline Woodruff and Mitsuhide Hoshino from the International Energy Agency also made valuable contributions. 1. The full-length country case studies plus the bibliometric analysis are available at under the heading Sectoral Case Studies on Innovation.

6 4 FOREWORD The study benefited significantly from the International Conference on Innovation in Energy Technologies, held in Washington, DC on September The conference was co-sponsored by the OECD, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the US National Academies and the US Department of Energy. A number of recognised experts on innovation and energy technology debated a wide range of topics related to the complex workings of energy technology innovation systems, including: the roles of market forces and government policies in establishing objectives for energy innovation and directions for research; the relative contributions of and degree of collaboration among industry, universities and government in financing and performing research and development; and obstacles impeding commercialisation of new energy technologies (see Annex B for the conference programme). The insight gained from this conference has informed the preparation of this report in myriad ways.

7 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword 3 Executive Summary 7 Chapter 1. Synthesis of Main Findings 13 Résumé 47 Chapitre 1. Synthèse des principales conclusions 53 Country Studies 93 Chapter 2. Canada: Fuel Cells 95 Chapter 3. France: Fuel Cells 113 Chapter 4. Germany: Fuel Cells 129 Chapter 5. Italy: Fuel Cells 149 Chapter 6. Japan: Fuel Cells 161 Chapter 7. Korea: Fuel Cells and Photovoltaics 181 Chapter 8. Norway: Fuel Cells 195 Chapter 9. Norway: Upstream Oil and Gas 215 Chapter 10. United Kingdom: Fuel Cells 237 Chapter 11. United States: Automotive Fuel Cells 255 Chapter 12. United States: Stationary Fuel Cells 277 Chapter 13. United States: Advanced Turbine System 295 Annex A. Types of Fuel Cells and Their Applications 319 Annex B. International Conference on Innovation in Energy Technologies: Programme 323

8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 Executive Summary Innovation in energy technology has widespread implications for OECD economies. Although the energy sector accounts for a small share of GDP, the pervasive use of energy throughout modern economies makes uninterrupted supplies and stable prices critical to sustaining growth. Rapid growth in energy demand coupled with growing concerns about energy security and the environment, however, raise questions about the sustainability of the current energy system and call for renewed efforts to develop and deploy new and improved energy technologies that can support a sustainable energy system. 1 Understanding how to stimulate innovation in energy technology is therefore of growing importance. This report summarises the conclusions of a project on innovation in energy technology organised by the OECD Working Party on Innovation and Technology Policy. It forms part of a larger effort to compare innovation processes in different industry sectors to both provide guidance to policy makers on development of innovation policy and to more fully elaborate the national innovation systems approach to policy making. The report focuses primarily on innovation in hydrogen fuel cell technology, which was the subject of country studies prepared by experts from nine countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States. It also addresses innovation in oil and gas technologies, drawing on work done in France, Norway and the United States, which allows some ability for comparative analysis across national innovation systems and among innovation systems for different energy technologies. Innovation in hydrogen fuel cells Hydrogen fuel cells are a revolutionary technology that promises to transform the global energy economy, as they offer long-term potential for high-efficiency with nearzero emissions of greenhouse gases. With potential applications in transportation, power generation and portable power, the market for fuel cells and related products, according to some estimates, is projected to reach USD 29 billion by 2011, and could reach as high as USD 1.7 trillion by Hydrogen fuel cell technology is complex, however, and numerous technical and economic problems remain to be solved, particularly in automotive applications, before it can achieve widespread deployment. In addition, the commercial success of hydrogen fuel cells requires that suitable infrastructure be developed for the generation, distribution and storage of hydrogen fuels. Fuel cells must prove their ability not only to generate sufficient power for a range of envisioned applications with different performance and cost requirements, but also to do so more effectively than existing and emerging energy technologies (e.g. internal combustion engines, batteries and renewable energy sources), many of which have benefited from decades or more of continual refinement. 1. International Energy Agency (IEA) (2004), World Energy Outlook 2004.

9 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Multiple factors drive innovation While improvement in environmental quality in general and concerns about climate change in particular are important drivers of the fuel cell innovation system for all countries, other factors also motivate innovation. The economic opportunities presented by hydrogen fuel cells are a powerful driver for those countries with large automobile manufacturing sectors, including France, Germany, Japan and the United States, as well as for a country such as Norway that desires to make better use of existing energy resources. For countries with limited domestic energy resources that depend heavily on imported oil for transportation, including Japan, Korea and the United States, energy security is an equally strong driver of the fuel cell innovation system. Fuel cell innovation in Canada, Norway and the United Kingdom, with large domestic energy resources, and in countries with intermediate levels of resources, such as France, often takes the form of a fast-follower strategy, although a cluster of Canadian firms has emerged as industry leaders in fuel cell technology. Government and industry contribute to energy R&D funding Both government and industry invest considerable sums in fuel cell R&D. Although the balance between these two sources of funding varies considerably among countries, the share financed by the public sector is relatively high, reflecting the large public interest in successful commercialisation of fuel cells. The US government announced in 2003 its plan to spend USD 1.7 billion over the next five years on fuel cell R&D including hydrogen production, storage and infrastructure. Japanese government spending on fuel cell R&D reached USD 320 million in The European Community announced plans to spend USD 2.1 billion between 2003 and 2006 on renewable energy, mostly on hydrogen fuel cells. With the potential commercial applications of fuel cells becoming more apparent, industry is playing an increasingly important role, investing more in fuel cell R&D than governments in many countries. Current annual spending by the private sector on hydrogen fuel cell R&D worldwide is estimated to be about USD 1 billion. Industry R&D spending in the United States peaked at over USD 1 billion in 2000, although it declined to about half that level in 2004, reflecting weaker economic conditions at the turn of the millennium. Venture capital firms have played a limited role in funding fuel cell start-up firms because fuel cell technology is highly capital intensive with long time horizons for commercialisation; and public policy and regulatory regimes regarding fuel cells are not well developed, increasing uncertainties about future market conditions. National innovation systems for fuel cells are complex and diverse Because of their wide range of applications, fuel cell innovation systems engage a diverse and changing set of actors in public and private sector R&D and other innovative activities. Government laboratories and universities are important players in generating and diffusing knowledge. While universities generally account for the majority of scientific publications, government laboratories also play an important role in fuel cell technology, reflecting longstanding traditions of energy research in many countries and the significant societal benefits expected to result from deployment of fuel cell technology. The work of these public research organisations (PROs) is funded (and performed) by many government ministries, including those with responsibility for research, industry, energy, environment and defence, reflecting the range of interests in fuel cell technology. Industry is heavily engaged in innovation of hydrogen fuel cells. Active firms include

10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 large national and multinational enterprises, as well as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). While SMEs tend to focus specifically on development of fuel cells, large firms operate in a number of industry sectors, including energy, automobiles, electronics and chemicals. These firms are connected in complex ways by organisational networks that generate, diffuse and use knowledge. The balance between the public and private sectors in fuel cell innovation varies considerably from one country to another, reflecting different public sector motivations for promoting development of fuel cells and different industrial structures. In Italy, most fuel cell activity takes place in the public sector, although industry interest is growing; in Korea, government funding exceeds estimated funding from industry. In other countries, most notably Canada and Japan, most fuel cell knowledge resides in industry, as opposed to PROs, but the public sector role is increasing. Public and private financing of fuel cell R&D are approximately equal in France, and several other countries, including Germany, Japan and the United States, appear to have motivated both public and private sector involvement in fuel cells. Public/private partnerships (P/PPs) are common vehicles used by nearly all countries to spur fuel cell innovation and encourage knowledge sharing. Most P/PPs engage researchers from public and private-sector organisation who work on commonly identified objectives and share costs. The partnerships help governments identify R&D gaps and opportunities as well as technical barriers to be removed, and enable industry to share risks of investing in pre-commercial technology. France s PACo network, Germany s Futures Investment Programme (ZIP), Japan s Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Demonstration Project (JHFC), and the US FreedomCAR initiatives are some examples. These partnerships have blurred the traditional line between the roles of government performing basic research, and industry performing applied R&D. Despite the nascent stage of development of fuel cell technology, innovation activities are surprisingly globalised. Firms try to leverage their R&D resources by entering into strategic alliances with key customers, suppliers, and research organisations in foreign countries. For example, Ballard Power Systems, headquartered in Canada, has developed an extensive international R&D system including establishing R&D facilities in Germany. Both US and Japanese automobile manufacturers also have developed extensive, global networks of R&D collaborators. At the government level, several initiatives have been implemented to improve international co-ordination of research, development and commercialisation. The International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE), established in 2003, involves more than a dozen countries accounting for 85% of global GDP, with the goal to help co-ordinate and leverage on-going R&D activities to accelerate hydrogen fuel cells. Within Europe, the H 2 and Fuel Cells Technology Platform has been set up to integrate the existing, dispersed national R&D programmes in order to improve co-ordination and effectiveness. Fuel cell innovation policy extends beyond R&D Successful innovation in fuel cells requires much more than R&D. Market development is extremely important as fuel cells represent a novel approach to satisfying energy needs in application areas served by a number of entrenched technologies. The costs and risks of switching to fuel cells are high, and customers may be understandably reluctant to invest in fuel cells until they are more fully convinced of their capabilities and reliability. Fuel cell innovation programmes, as many energy innovation programmes, tend therefore to aim not just at promoting R&D, but at encouraging a fuller spectrum of activities

11 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY commonly referred to as RDD&D research, development, demonstration and deployment. The demonstration and deployment components of this approach aim to test fuel cell technology in operational settings to illustrate their capabilities, identify infrastructural needs and gain operational experience that can lead to successful market entry. Governments have taken a number of steps to support demonstration and deployment, often in collaboration with industry. Some countries subsidise deployment of fuel cells, via co-financing of purchases (as in Norway) or tax incentives. In the United States, the state of California has taken a regulatory approach, implementing a requirement for zeroemission vehicles that is intended to stimulate manufacture and purchase of vehicles using fuel cells and other alternative energy sources. Countries also support demonstration programmes. The US government has invested in a test fleet of 50 fuel cell-powered vehicles and refuelling stations, and the governments of Germany, Japan and Korea have also supported demonstrations of automotive and stationary applications. Canada is supporting three major large-scale, multi-stakeholder demonstration projects that will accelerate the transition to a hydrogen economy. The BC Hydrogen, the Hydrogen Village, and the Vancouver Fuel Cell Vehicle Program will demonstrate and evaluate the integration of a number of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies across Canada. Project stakeholders in these and other initiatives include federal, provincial and municipal governments, industry and academia. Policy can affect other elements of the innovation system as well. The creation of regional, national and international programmes for hydrogen fuel cells plays a catalytic role in engaging the diverse set of actors in the innovation system. They can help create a common vision that minimises uncertainties as technologies are advanced toward commercialisation and complementary investments are required (such as for hydrogen storage and distribution). Development of skilled human resources required for the emerging fuel cell industry is also important. International codes and standards for fuel cells are considered instrumental to the successful commercialisation of hydrogen fuel cell technologies. Addressing these issues requires productive collaboration between the public and private sectors. Benefits of fuel cell innovation remain largely in the future While the economic, environmental and national security benefits of fuel cell innovation are potentially large, they still lie largely in the future. Fuel cell industries have expanded in several countries and employ a growing number of workers, but none of the countries participating in this project are yet able to realise direct economic benefits, with the exception of Canada. To date, most of the benefits of innovation in fuel cell technology have been knowledge benefits. The number of scientific publications related to fuel cells increased more than five-fold between 1990 and 2000, while the number of triadic patent families (for inventions patented in the European Patent Office, Japan Patent Office and US Patent and Trademark Office) increased from seven in 1990 to 158 in The knowledge codified in these papers and patents, as well as the uncodified knowledge residing in the minds of fuel cell researchers, provide the basis for future innovation and continued development of fuel cell technology. Large-scale commercialisation of hydrogen fuel cells will require continued efforts to further expand and mobilise this knowledge base, with sustained R&D funding and other efforts by both public and private sectors.

12 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 Innovation in oil and gas Fossil energy resources including oil and gas have been and will continue to be the backbone of the energy system in industrialised economies. Together they account for over 60% of fuels supplied to transportation, electric power generation and industrial processes. But innovation in fossil energy resources differs in many ways from innovation in hydrogen fuel cells. Technological innovation in these mature and deeply entrenched energy industries has evolved over a long period of time, more incrementally than by spurts. While the government s role in the innovation of upstream and deep offshore oil and gas technologies is limited, the sheer size of the oil industry implies that public policy can have significant impacts on the entire economy. Innovation in these fields is driven mainly by economic considerations and, more recently, by environmental concerns. Due to the highly globalised nature of oil markets, technological innovation in upstream oil and gas and in deep offshore oil production is highly susceptible to oil prices. In the case of the US Advanced Turbine System (ATS), innovation was motivated less by economic concerns than by issues of energy security and environmental protection, but economic considerations entered into the government s decision to initiate the ATS programme and provide incentives for innovation. In the oil and gas sector, innovation is carried out largely by the industry, with more limited roles played by governments. Large firms, in particular, play a dominant role in Norway, where oil companies are the second largest funders of R&D and two oil industry giants (Statoil and Norsk Hydro) account for a large share of the total. In France, the innovation system for deep offshore oil and gas technologies is a triadic organisation consisting of three groups of players: 1) oil field service companies; 2) hydrocarbon operating companies; and 3) higher education and research institutions. In the US ATS programme, the main industrial partners were also large firms, General Electric Power Systems (GEPS) and Siemens Westinghouse Power Corporation (SWPC), although both relied on networks of other smaller firms, and to a lesser extent on public research organisations. Nevertheless, large firms increasingly outsource their R&D and rely on networks of private and public sector organisations for critical elements of innovation. Public/private partnerships play an important role in bringing about more significant changes in the innovation systems in oil and gas. The advanced turbine system (ATS) was a joint project developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE), and in a cost-shared, public/private partnership that led to successful commercialisation of the technology. Total funding for the ATS project was USD 888 million, of which DOE s share was USD 456 million (51%) and industry s share USD 432 million (49%). The ATS programme produced 55 patents, with GE s share being 23, and SWPC accounting for 28. DOE and universities produced two patents each. French experience indicates that public/private partnerships have helped the innovation of deep offshore oil and gas technologies. Because innovations in oil and gas have been deployed, there have been economic and environmental benefits. An assessment of the ATS programme found, for example, that against the DOE R&D spending of USD 325 million, economic benefits of USD 5.7 billion could be realised. Environmental benefits were also achieved through reductions in emissions of NOx and CO 2 emissions. Because of the limited sales of the turbines, energy security benefits are small, but significant options benefits and knowledge benefits have been achieved.

13 SYNTHESIS OF MAIN FINDINGS 13 Chapter 1 SYNTHESIS OF MAIN FINDINGS Introduction Innovation in energy technology has widespread implications for OECD economies. Although the energy sector accounts for a small share of GDP, the pervasive use of energy through modern economies makes uninterrupted supplies and stable prices critical to sustaining growth. Rapid growth in energy demand coupled with growing concerns about energy security and the environment, however, raise questions about the sustainability of the current energy system and call for renewed efforts to develop and deploy new and improved energy production technologies that can support a sustainable energy system (IEA, 2004). Understanding how to stimulate innovation in energy technology is therefore of growing importance. Energy demand, climate change and energy technology innovation Global demand for energy continues to rise. Even if the world economy grows at a moderate rate, global demand for energy is projected to increase significantly over the next 25 years (Figure 1.1). The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that between 2002 and 2030, world energy demand could increase by almost 60%. If this trend continues world energy consumption could triple by the end of the 21st century (IPCC, 2000). Currently, most energy used is derived from the combustion of fossil fuels, (i.e. oil, natural gas and coal), and unless there is dramatic improvement in the economics of producing, processing and distributing other cleaner energy resources in the future, these sources will remain dominant fuels over the next 25 years and beyond, with growing but modest contributions made by nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, and other renewable energy. Growing energy demand has implications for the global environment. Combustion of fossil fuels is the largest source of CO 2 emissions. According to the IEA, between 2002 and 2030, global CO 2 emissions, which account for over 80% of all greenhouse gases, are projected to increase by 62% (Figure 1.2). If this trend continues, world emissions of CO 2 could reach over three times the level of 2000 by the end of this century (IPCC, 2000). Growing emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly CO 2, and the resulting increases in concentrations of these gases in the earth s atmosphere could have far-reaching implications for ecosystems, the world economy, and the environment. Given the amount of energy required to sustain the world economy over the next decades, the dominant role fossil fuels are expected to play, and the resulting CO 2 emissions, any solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and ultimately stabilize their concentrations will likely require fundamental changes in the way the world produces and uses energy.

14 14 SYNTHESIS OF MAIN FINDINGS Figure 1.1. World primary energy demand Million tonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE) Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, Figure 1.2. World energy-related CO 2 emissions by type of fuel Millions of tonnes of CO 2 Coal Oil Gas 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2004.

15 SYNTHESIS OF MAIN FINDINGS 15 No single technological solution can meet global energy, economic, and climate change challenges. Rather, a transition to a low-carbon energy future will require the development of multiple energy supply technologies including such revolutionary technologies as hydrogen and fuel cells in the long run, and technologies that would allow more innovative production and use of conventional energy resources such as oil, natural gas, coal and renewable energy in the short run. Furthermore, a smooth transition to a lowcarbon energy future requires sustained R&D investment in energy technology development from basic science to applied research, technology development, demonstration and deployment. A clear understanding of the national energy technology innovation system is essential for making reasoned R&D investment decisions in technology development and policy formulation to achieve energy, economic, and climate change goals. National energy innovation systems are diverse and complex The energy sector in most modern economies is characterised by a complex network of industries that engage in extracting, producing, transforming and distributing energy to consumers in many different forms. Analysing the entire energy sector in the framework of the national innovation system would be a formidable task. Instead, this report examines the national energy innovation system at the level of individual energy technologies. Even at the technology level, innovation systems are diverse and complex, as they are shaped, to a large extent, by indigenous energy resources, national priorities, industrial structures and external economic, political and other influences. For countries with large indigenous fossil energy resources such as Canada, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States, the energy technology innovation systems have, at least until recent years, evolved in the direction of increasing the productivity of exploiting these resources. On the other hand, in countries with very limited indigenous energy resources, such as Japan and Korea, the focus of energy technology innovation has been to spur development of a range of energy sources to become less dependent on imported energy. With growing concerns about global climate change, regional environmental quality, plus security of energy supply that in turn affect the economy and national security, the energy policy goals of most developed countries, including those countries with substantial domestic fossil energy resources, are becoming increasingly enmeshed with their economic, national security, climate change and other policy goals. That is to say that energy policy goals today cannot be pursued in isolation from other policy goals. Further, different national priorities vis-à-vis the economy, energy security, climate change, etc., affect the way countries allocate their resources to and organise scientific research and technology enterprise, adding considerable complexities to analysis of the national innovation system of energy technologies. The recent trend in globalisation of R&D to limit risks in energy technology R&D adds further complexity to analysing national innovation systems of fuel cell technology. It is also plausible that there are differences in the innovation system of such new and revolutionary energy technology as hydrogen fuel cells and those of more conventional and mature energy technologies such as oil, natural gas, coal and renewable energy.

16 16 SYNTHESIS OF MAIN FINDINGS Innovation in hydrogen fuel cells Fuel cells have been recognised as an important energy technology of the future. 1 Fuel cells use the chemical energy of a fuel such as hydrogen to produce electricity and water. 2 They offer the long-term potential for high-efficiency energy systems that produce near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases. Moreover, hydrogen can be produced from many different energy sources including fossil fuels, renewables and nuclear energy so that the transportation sector could become less dependent on petroleum products (EC, 2003; US DOE, 2002). For these reasons, in the recent decade many industrialised countries have made substantial R&D investments in hydrogen production, distribution and storage technologies, especially as enabling technology such as fuel cells began to show real promise. Hydrogen fuel cells are a revolutionary technology with the potential to transform large segments of the economy, including the automobile industry, electric power generation and the electronics industry. Fuel cells are efficient electrochemical converters, in which the chemical energy of an energy carrier is directly converted into electric energy. Electric efficiency rates of up to 70% are potentially achievable for fuel cells, a figure considerably higher than that for conventional power plants. In addition, fuel cells are extremely flexible with a wide range of applications. In transportation applications, fuel cells can power passenger cars, buses and other vehicles; in stationary applications, fuel cells can be used to generate electricity for homes, buildings and industrial plants; and in portable applications, fuel cells can provide power for cell phones, laptops and other electronic products (IPTS, 2003). The potential market for hydrogen fuel cells and related products is projected to be large. According to some estimates, global demand could reach as high as USD 29.3 billion by 2011 and could exceed USD 1.7 trillion by 2021 (Fuel Cells Canada and PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2002). At the same time, hydrogen fuel cells are complex technologies that face significant scientific and technological hurdles before achieving commercialisation. Realising the economic potential and environmental benefits of fuel cells will depend critically on continued scientific and technological advances. Many technical barriers are slowing progress toward commercialisation of fuel cells. In automotive applications, they include cost and durability of the fuel cells; in stationary applications, the durability of fuel cells systems; and in portable applications, competition with advanced batteries. It may take a long time to achieve competitive costs for fuel cell production (IPTS, 2003). 1. While fuel cells have attracted considerable attention in recent years, they have a much longer history. The fuel cell was first developed in 1839 by William Grove, a Welsh judge with strong scientific interest. Other scientists paid sporadic attention to fuel cells throughout the 19th century. From the 1930s through the 1950s, Francis Thomas Bacon, a British scientist, worked on alkaline fuel cells and demonstrated a working stack in This technology was licensed to Pratt and Whitney where it was utilised for the United States Apollo spacecraft. For a description of different fuel cells and their possible applications, see Annex A. 2. Fuel cells can be powered by different fuels. Since current research is focused largely on hydrogen as the main fuel for fuel cells, this report concentrates on hydrogen fuel cell technology.

17 SYNTHESIS OF MAIN FINDINGS 17 The country case studies undertaken as part of this study reveal a wide diversity in the structure of national innovation systems for hydrogen fuel cells. This diversity reflects different motivations for pursuing fuel cell technology, different institutional structures for science, technology and innovation, different industry structures, and different capabilities in the private and public sectors that help shape the innovation system. This section presents some of the key findings from the case studies, identifying areas of commonality across countries and main differences among them. 3 It begins by identifying the drivers of innovation in fuel cell technology and describes the structure of national innovation systems for fuel cell technology, highlighting the roles of government, industry, public research laboratories, and universities as well as the importance of public/private partnerships, globalisation of R&D and intellectual property rights in advancing fuel cell innovation. Factors that shape the innovative environment for fuel cells In examining innovation in fuel cells, several factors must be kept in mind that influence the process of innovation in fuel cells and serve to differentiate it from innovation in other technological fields. First, fuel cells represent a dramatically new way of meeting existing (and future) energy needs. They provide a revolutionary technological approach for providing power for various applications. As such, they compete against a set of existing, entrenched power technologies and other renewable energy sources that are currently under development. These include internal combustion engines, small gas turbines, micro turbines, and photovoltaics. Successful innovation and deployment of fuel cells demands therefore that they not only demonstrate suitable power-generation capability for a given application, but also superior capabilities to competing solutions along a number of dimensions, including power output, size, weight, operating temperature and cost. They must displace existing solutions and outperform others in development, making the innovation process considerably more challenging. Second, successful commercialisation of hydrogen fuel cells requires compatibility with existing, or newly developed, infrastructures for distribution and transportation of fuels, and refuelling. Successful deployment of automotive fuel cells, for example, would require the development of extensive infrastructures for supplying fuels such as hydrogen, in addition to developing the right combination of power generation, cost, weight, size, operating temperature, and acceptable driving range. Developing infrastructures for hydrogen-powered automotive fuel cells is a significant challenge as capital investment needed for the new infrastructures is huge, and existing energy infrastructures last for decades or longer. Transportation and storage of fuels also could become problematic as they have implications for consumer safety. All countries interested in the commercialisation of hydrogen fuel cells have therefore established R&D programmes to find solutions for the various infrastructure problems. Innovation in fuel cells is also influenced by the diversity of their applications. The main applications currently envisioned include automotive propulsion, stationary power generation and portable power supply, such as for electronic devices. Each of these applications requires fuel cells with different characteristics (size, weight, power output, etc.), and can imply the use of different types of fuel cells, such as proton-exchange (or polymer electrolyte) membrane fuel cells (PEMFC) for automotive uses and solid oxide 3. The full-length case studies can be accessed at under the heading Case Studies in Innovation.

18 18 SYNTHESIS OF MAIN FINDINGS fuel cells (SOFC) for stationary power generation. Markets in each application area are expected to develop along different timelines, with stationary power and portable power preceding automotive applications. This differentiation can lead to fragmentation of innovative efforts and competition among them, but it can also introduce some complementarities. For example, firms that are targeting automotive applications in the long term can apply their skills to production of fuel cells for stationary power applications in the short-term, providing a source of revenue to sustain their operations (and continued R&D efforts), as well as providing them with practical experience in the production and use of fuel cell technologies. In this respect, one application area may become a stepping stone to others. Multiple drivers of innovation Drivers of innovation for fuel cells have evolved as national priorities and energy policy goals changed over time. Early government involvement in fuel cells was mainly driven by space and defence-related programmes in some countries. For example, the first PEM fuel cells were used in the United States for the Gemini V spacecraft in Likewise, in Canada, in the 1980s R&D on fuel cells was financed by the Department of National Defence. Over time the focus on space and defence has shifted as a more diverse set of applications emerged and a new group of stakeholders, including universities, nonpublic research organisations and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have begun to play increasingly large roles in hydrogen fuel cell R&D. Main drivers of fuel cell innovation today consist of economic opportunities, environmental concerns and energy security: Economic opportunity. Hydrogen fuel cells create opportunities for launching new industries that generate revenues and employment. Although projections of the size of the market for fuel cells and of the number of new jobs that would be created directly and indirectly by commercialisation of fuel cell technology are highly uncertain at this time, the potential is significant. Canada s success in fuel cell innovation generated more than CAD 188 million in revenues in 2003 from the sale of fuel cell components, for both automotive and stationary applications, and it expects revenues and employment in the fuel cell industry to increase as the global fuel cell market expands. According to one estimate, revenues from publicly traded US and Canadian fuel cell companies grew from USD 128 million in 2001 to USD 218 million in 2002 (PriceWaterhouseCoopers, 2003). The United Kingdom estimates that the market for fuel cells could be worth more than USD 25 billion by Fuel cells as portable power for electronic goods have already established a niche market, and it is projected to capture 13.5% of global market share for laptop computers by The market for stationary applications of fuel cells, i.e. power plants as auxiliary power units, is already available and demand is expected to grow. More significantly, all major automobile manufacturing companies are currently investing heavily in R&D for hydrogen-fuelled cars to capture larger shares of the market. 4. Report prepared for the UK Department of Trade and Industry, and Carbon Trust. 5. Estimate from ABI research study on Micro Fuel Cells: Market Challenges and Opportunities for Cameras, Laptops, PDAs and Wireless/Mobile Devices, New York, May 2004.

19 SYNTHESIS OF MAIN FINDINGS 19 Environmental improvement. The use of energy in transportation, residential and commercial buildings, industrial processes, and coal power plants are the major sources of carbon dioxide emissions. The need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the anticipated environmental benefits from reduced carbon dioxide in transportation and electric power generation have also been a driving force behind the innovation of fuel cell technology. In particular, should a largescale conversion from internal combustion engines to hydrogen fuel cells in transportation occur, the potential environmental benefits could be enormous. The environmental driver has gained force over the recent decade, as public awareness of potential risks associated with climate change and deterioration of regional environmental quality has increased. It is true that the production of hydrogen or other fuels for fuel cells may require the use of other pollution-emitting technologies, but it may be possible to centralise such production facilities to enable greater use of carbon sequestration and other emission-reducing technologies. Energy security. Fuel cell technology may also enable countries to reduce their dependence on imported energy supplies. As long as oil remains the primary fuel for transportation, and as long as industrialised economies import much of their oil supplies from politically volatile regions of the world, energy security would be an important driver for the innovation of hydrogen fuel cells that can be produced from a variety of domestic energy resources. It is estimated that by the year 2040, with 150 million hydrogen-powered vehicles on the road, the United States could reduce its oil consumption by 11 million barrels per day. Fuel cells could also reduce import dependence on other types of energy such as natural gas and electricity. To the extent that fuel cells can be used for decentralised power generation for households and industrial applications, they could also reduce dependence on imported electricity from other countries (e.g. via international electric grids). The relative emphasis individual countries place on these drivers varies according to their resource endowments, industrial capabilities, and national priorities. For example, while all countries see environmental considerations as a strong motivating factor, economic interests are a powerful driver in countries with large automobile industries, such as Germany, Japan and the United States, as well as those that see potential for sales of fuel cells, such as Canada, France, Norway and the United Kingdom (Table 1.1). Energy security is an equally strong driver for countries with limited indigenous energy resources, including Japan, Korea and the United States. Other factors also play a role. The Japanese government sees fuel cell technology as important not only to improve energy efficiency, reduce environmental impact, diversify energy supply, and create new industries and jobs, but also to meet its need for distributed power generation. Norway, which has abundant sources of oil, gas and hydropower, sees hydrogen fuel cells as a means of expanding its energy production capabilities and making better use of its energy resources, for example, by generating hydrogen from natural gas. Technological capacity building is also driving hydrogen fuel cell innovation. Even for countries with large domestic energy resources, with a transition to the hydrogen economy as a highly plausible future development, pursuing technological advancement in hydrogen fuel cell technology is considered important.

20 20 SYNTHESIS OF MAIN FINDINGS Table 1.1. Factors motivating innovation in fuel cells Canada France Germany Italy Japan Korea Norway United Kingdom United States Environment Economic Energy security and diversification Innovation in fuel cell technology has been driven in recent years by Canada s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. France is deeply concerned about greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in automotive applications. Fuel cells appear to be a strong possible alternative to traditional internal combustion engines and petroleum products. Concerns about the environment motivate work on both automotive and stationary applications of fuel cells. Innovation in fuel cell technology has been influenced by environmental considerations through policies of the Ministries of Research and of Environment. Environmental factors are a driver of fuel cell innovation in Japan. Innovation in fuel cell technology has been influenced by the national energy R&D policy to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. In recent years, environmental forces have gained more attention in policy debates. The Kyoto protocol and the International Panel on Climate Change are also invoked as authorities for pursuing environmental objectives. The United Kingdom is a front-runner in carbon trade, and is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. The US government invests in a large portfolio of technologies to address climate change, including hydrogen fuel cell technology. Canada has aggressively leveraged its fuel cell R&D to secure a growing share in the global fuel cell market. Canada s national policy to support overall technology R&D has also contributed toward fuel cell technology innovation. Economic incentives are a significant driver given the size of the French automotive sector. Germany places great emphasis on the economic opportunities presented by fuel cells, with a particular interest in ensuring that its automotive industry a leading driver of German employment and exports remains competitive despite potential shifts in power generation technology. Innovation in fuel cell technology has been influenced by economic considerations through policies of the Ministries of Research and of Productive Activities. Economic benefits are a driver, reflecting the needs and concerns of a broad range of industries in the Japanese economy, including automobiles, electronics, materials, chemicals and energy. Fuel cells are one of ten key technologies selected by the government as growth engines of the future that can strengthen Korea s economic competitiveness. National policy to support R&D in these technologies has contributed to innovation in fuel cell technology. The main driver for fuel cell and hydrogen technologies is Norway s interest in further expanding its energy production through innovations in oil, gas, and renewable energy. Technological capacity building also drives hydrogen fuel cell innovation. The United Kingdom hopes to capture a significant share of the global market for hydrogen fuel cells. All major automakers in the United States are investing heavily in fuel cell R&D to capture a share of the potentially large market for hydrogenfuelled automobiles. Energy security and diversification are less significant drivers of innovation in fuel cells in Canada. Energy security is a strong driver for France, which relies heavily on imported petroleum for its transportation needs. In recent years, stationary applications have become more relevant with a view toward a decentralised, more environmentally benign and more secure energy supply in liberalised markets. Energy security is a driver for Japan, which relies heavily on imported supplies of primary energy resources that affect a broad range of industries. Interest in fuel cells stems in large part from its concerns about energy security and a need for diversification of energy sources. Since the second oil crisis of 1978, the government has encouraged use of indigenous new and renewable energy to reduce dependence on foreign oil. Norway has considerable domestic sources of energy supply. Interest in fuel cells leans toward stationary applications to provide power to a highly scattered population where access to power grids is difficult. The United Kingdom is endowed with large fossil energy resources, so energy security is not a significant driver. The United States imports more than half of its oil supply, and its dependency is expected to grow as demand for transportation fuel expands, increasing the country s vulnerability to oil market volatility.

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