H O N G K O N G. R e t a i l M a r k e t M o n i t o r Thu rsday, 15 J anu ary China Shipping Development CM Land (978 HK) Trading Sell
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1 MARKET NEWS P R I C E C H A R T ( H a n g S e n g I n d e x ) Capped under points, the Hong Kong stocks are still in rangetrading The Hong Kong stocks pared its gains and fell. The HSI once rose 111 points and fell 159 points. It finally closed at points, down 103 points. The HSCEI dropped 54 points to close at points. The market turnover was HK$86.1 bn, with 547 stocks rose and 857 stocks fell. Back to the Hong Kong stock market, the HSI once hit a high of points, near to the high of 17 November However, it failed to stabilize above the resistance level. Before breaking above the resistance at points, the Hong Kong stocks are still in range-trading. Unless there is positive news (e.g. lowering the interest rates or RRR), investors have to watch out for the risk of the index from falling down after closing high. WHAT S IN THE PACK China Shipping Development CM Land (978 HK) (1138 HK) Trading Sell Benefitting From Recovery In VLCC Last price: HK$1.20 Market And Declining Oil Prices VLCC average daily earnings reached US$43,948/day in 4Q14, up 26.3% yoy, on the back of low oil prices. CSD s VLCC business is expected to contribute profits in 2014 vs a gross loss of Rmb2.2b in Low bunker fuel prices will also help improve CSD s gross margin as bunker fuel accounts for 40% of total cost. With scrapping subsidies, we expect CSD to turn around in Upgrade to BUY. Target price: HK$7.50. Resistance: HK$1.24 Support: HK$1.18/1.12 AAC Tech (2018 HK) Trading Sell Last price: HK$46.45 Resistance: HK$49.00 Support: HK$44.05/41.15 KEY INDICES P ev Close Chg (%) YTD (%) HSI Index 24, H I Futures 24, HSCEI index 12, S COMP 3, DJI index 17, SPX index 2, NKY index 16, DAX index 9, CAC index Source: Bloomberg 4, TOP VOLUME Price Chg Value Stock (HK$) (%) ($m) ISHARES FTSE A % CSOP FTSE CH-HKD % PING AN INSURA-H % TENCENT % TRACKER FUND HK % TOP GAINERS Price Chg Value Stock (HK$) (%) ($m) DINGYI GP INV % 17.9 IDT INTL LTD % 12.4 UNI-BIO GROUP % 28.0 GREEN INTL HLDG % 8.66 GAYETY HOLDINGS % TOP LOSERS Price Chg Value Stock (HK$) (%) ($m) RUNWAY GLOBAL % 0.5 HO UL CREATIVITY % 7.5 CROSBY CAPITAL % CH ENV ENERGY % 25.8 APPLIED MATERIAL % 0.0 STRATEGIST Hannah Li, CFA, CAIA hannah.li@uobkayhian.com.hk w w w. u t r a d e. c o m. h k 1
2 COMPANY UPDATE Sunny Optical (2382 HK) Concern Over Declining Domestic Handset Demand Overdone Over the last two weeks, lower domestic mobile phone shipments and rising competition from AAC Technologies in the optics area have caused Sunny s share price to fall 16.5%. But Sunny s strategy to focus on leading domestic mobile phone makers helps it resist the shipment decline, while rising demand from automobile lenses should help further diversify its income mix and improve profitability. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$13.20, based on 15x 2015F PE. WHAT S NEW Over the past two weeks, the share price of Sunny Optical (Sunny) has dropped by 16.5%. We understand the price correction was due to: a) market concern that intensifying competition in the handset manufacturing industry may affect Sunny s outlook, b) concern over increasing competition from AAC Technologies in the optics area as AAC has recently won the contract to supply array camera lens to Pelican Imaging, and c) the company may incur higher operating expenses after taking over control of Konica Minolta s facilities in Shanghai. STOCK IMPACT Gaining market share in high-end handset camera modules. MIIT statistics suggests China s mobile phone shipments fell 21.6% yoy to 452.2m units in 2014 and domestic brands handset shipments fell 22.9% yoy to 354.0m units. However, Sunny s 11M14 handset camera modules (HCM) shipments rose 41.3% yoy to 172.8m units, mainly due to its leadership technology position to supply high-end HCM. The company has also secured HCM supply contracts from handset makers, including Coolpad, Huawei, Lenovo and Xiaomi in the past two years. In the medium term, we believe HCM specification upgrades, including higher resolution and increasing adoption of HCM with optical image stabilisation could help Sunny maintain a relative stable HCM ASP. Moreover, improving product mix and a higher camera lens in-sourcing ratio should help stabilise HCM s gross margin. Regarding the rising competition from AAC Technologies, we believe the market is overly concerned about the issue. First, the adoption of array lens in HCM is still low due to technical issues. Also, Sunny is investing heavily in imaging solutions R&D, which enables it to continue delivering industry-leading products, such as high-resolution camera lens and 3D imaging products. Therefore, it is unlikely AAC could overtake in the technology lead within a short time. Overall earnings change is minor. In 2H14, Sunny s HCM shipments remained robust. Its 11M14 HCM shipments reached 172.8m units, higher than our previous 165m unit shipment expectation for We believe the strong shipments were mainly driven by strong demand from major Chinese handset makers, such as Xiaomi and Huawei. On the other hand, Sunny s handset lens set shipments also picked up dramatically since it took over the facilities from Konica Minolta in early-14. In Nov 14, the company s handset lens set shipments jumped 252.5% yoy to 17.5m units. We foresee rising production of handset len sets could help raise Sunny s camera lens in-sourcing ratio and improve the gross margin for HCM in the long run. As both HCM and handset camera lens set production have exceeded our expectations, we lift our shipment assumptions for both HCM and handset camera lens. On the other hand, we slightly lower the company s blended gross margin assumptions mainly due to the slight adjustment in HCM s gross margin. Moreover, increasing revenue contribution from HCM also partly caused blended gross margin to decline. We also slightly increase total operating expense assumptions after including additional operating costs from the Minolta Konica s Shanghai facilities. After incorporating all the changes, our net profit ANALYST Victor Yip victor.yip@uobkayhian.com.hk w w w. u t r a d e. c o m. h k 1
3 forecasts are reduced by %. Vehicle lens and other 3D applications are longer-term drivers. With increasing awareness of road safety and some automobile makers also providing automatic parking features for some car models, there is an increasing adoption of vehicle lenses in the automobile industry. As a leading player in the vehicle lens market, we believe Sunny could benefit from rising global demand. On the other hand, there are more parties studying the usage of 3D applications other than for imaging purposes. For example, Google s Project Tango studies ways to give mobile devices a human understanding of space and motion, and Sunny is also one of the 16 parties involved in this project. We believe the rising usage of 3D applications will give Sunny another revenue growth driver in the long run. EARNINGS REVISION/RISK We lower our net profit forecasts by %. As a result, our target price, which is based on 15x 2015F PE, is lowered from HK$14.20 to HK$ VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION Maintain BUY. With the strong capability in optical design, we expect the company to continue to ride on improving sales mix as well as diversifying revenue contributions from non-handset applications. Hence, Sunny should be more resistant to intensifying competition in the low-end HCM market. SHARE PRICE CATALYST New product launches, acquisition of new key customers, and rising monthly shipments of handset camera lens set and HCM. H O N G K O N G w w w. u t r a d e. c o m. h k 2
4 TRADERS CORNER CM Land Trading Sell Last price: HK$1.20 Resistance: HK$1.24 Support: HK$1.18/1.12 (978 HK) Since the intraday high at HK$1.45 of the shooting star, CM Land has closed in dark candles for the past seven trading days. Yesterday, the stock closed lower at HK$1.20 on strong volume, barely above the 0.62x retracement level at HK$1.18. Meanwhile, the RSI is testing the previous low while the Slow Stochastics turns south. Thus, the stock is likely to breach the 0.62x retracement level after a brief consolidation. By then, we may have to shift the support deeper to the 0.76x retracement level at HK$1.12. Expected Timeframe: 2 weeks to 2 months AAC Tech (2018 HK) Trading Sell Last price: HK$46.45 Resistance: HK$49.00 Support: HK$44.05/41.15 AAC Tech completed the tweezers top at HK$47.40 yesterday. Given that both the Williams %R Indicator and ROC encountered the resistance of previous high, we expect the stock to test the upside gap bottom at HK$ If this support fails to hold, the stock will then test the intraday low of the long white candlestick at HK$ Expected Timeframe: 2 weeks to 2 months Source: HKETNet ANALYST Barole Shiu, CAIA, CMT barole.shiu@uobkayhian.com.hk w w w. u t r a d e. c o m. h k 3
5 FOCUS NEWS Market News On Wednesday (14 January), the balance of Northbound Trading was RMB billion, accounting for 94.5% of the daily limit of RMB 13 billion, with 5.5% of the limit being used. The balance of Southbound Trading was RMB billion, accounting for 93.5% of the daily limit of RMB 10.5 billion, with 6.5% of the limit being used. PBOC Status The People's Bank of China was rumored to have renewed its 280 billion yuan worth of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) on Tuesday (13 January), a lending vehicle that provides liquidity to commercial banks like China Citic Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank. Policy Address The Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying announced new measures to attract talent in the 2015 annual policy address. The Capital Investment Entrant Scheme (CIES) will be suspended with effect from today (15 January). The government would study, with regard to overseas experience, the feasibility of drawing up a talent list to attract, in a more effective and focused manner, high-quality talent to support Hong Kong's development as a diversified and high value-added economy. Industry Status The better-than-expected foreign trade data released on Tuesday underpinned a surge of BDI by over 5% to 762 points. Together with the low oil price, the shipping stocks were sought after. China Cosco (1919 HK, HK$ 4.24) rose 1.9% and hit a 52-week high of HK$ China Shipping Development (1138 HK, HK$ 6.03) rose 0.5% and hit a 52-week high of HK$ According to the "Economic Information Daily", the Opinion for further deepening of the power system reform" has been approved by the State Council executive meeting, and would be submitted to the leading committee for discussion. It would be released upon approval. Power stocks performed well. Huadian Power (1071 HK, HK$ 6.87) and Huaneng Power International (902 HK, HK$ 11.06) rose 6.5% and 2.0% respectively. Stock News According to foreign media, Lenovo Group (992 Hk, HK$ 10.74) is considering taking its new device unit public as the Chinese electronics company joins the race to capitalize on the growing interest in smart homes. The unit, which will be called Shenqi, cold be worth a couple of billion dollars after it begins selling smart phones and Internet-connected devices online under its own brand in April. The stock performed well and rose 0.8% yesterday. Both CSR (1766 HK, HK$ 10.16) and China R (6199 HK, HK$ 10.46) issued statements with regarding to certain media published news reports which said that some senior management of both companies and their relatives had been involved in trading the shares. Driven by the news, the former and the latter rose 2.3% and 1.6% respectively. China Overseas (688 HK, HK$ 24.70) announced that the accumulated contracted property sales for 2014 amounted to approximately HK$140.8 billion, exceeding the full year target of HK$ 140 billion. The stock surged 2.3% yesterday, while other property stocks also performed well. IPO News ECONOMIC CALENDAR Jan 15 (Thu) Event Period Survey Prior CH Foreign Reserves Dec $3817B $3890B CH New Yuan Loans Dec 900.0B 852.7B CH Aggregate Financing RMB Dec B B CH Money Supply M1 YoY Dec 3.3% 3.2% CH Money Supply M2 YoY Dec 12.5% 12.3% US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book US Empire Manufacturing Jan US Initial Jobless Claims Jan US Continuing Claims Jan Jan 16 (Fri) US CPI MoM Dec -0.3% -0.3% US US US Jan 18 (Sun) CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Industrial Production MoM University of Mich. Sentiment China December Property Prices Jan (Mon - Wed) Jan 20 (Tue) Foreign Direct Investment YoY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY Dec 0.1% 0.1% Dec 0.1% 1.3% Jan Dec 22.1% 22.2% Dec 15.7% 15.8% Retail Sales YTD YoY Dec 12.0% 12.0% Retail Sales YoY Dec 11.8% 11.7% Industrial Production YTD YoY Industrial Production YoY Dec 8.2% 8.3% Dec 7.4% 7.2% GDP SA QoQ 4Q 1.8% 1.9% GDP YoY 4Q 7.2% 7.3% Jan 21 (Wed) US Housing Starts Dec 1040K 1028K US Housing Starts MoM Dec 1.2% -1.6% US Building Permits Dec 1051K 1035K US Building Permits MoM Dec -0.1% -5.2% Source: Bloomberg (HK Time), UOBKayHian Yat Sing (3708 HK, HK$ 0.67) closed at HK$ 0.67 on its first trading day, up 11.7% from its listing price of HK$0.60. It once hit a high of HK$ SIS Mobile (1362 HK) announced IPO allotment results. The shares were priced at HK$0.82, representing a mid-point of the offer price range (HK$0.73-HK$0.90). The public offering of the shares was oversubscribed by times and one-lot success rate was 50%. The international offering of the shares was moderately oversubscribed. w w w. u t r a d e. c o m. h k 4
6 The shares will be listed for trading today (15 January). Target Insurance (6161 HK) announced IPO results. The shares of the Company were priced at HK$1.61, close to the upper range of the offer price (HK$1.20-HK$1.80). The public offering of the shares was oversubscribed by around 10.8 times and one-lot success rate was 100%. The shares will be listed for trading today (15 January). w w w. u t r a d e. c o m. h k 5
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