THOMSON REUTERS STREETEVENTS EDITED TRANSCRIPT IAG.TO - Q Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc Earnings Call

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1 THOMSON REUTERS STREETEVENTS EDITED TRANSCRIPT IAG.TO - Q Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc Earnings Call EVENT DATE/TIME: NOVEMBER 05, 2014 / 07:00PM GMT 1

2 C O R P O R A T E P A R T I C I P A N TS Grace Pollock Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - Director, IR Yvon Charest Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - President, CEO Normand Pepin Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP Rene Chabot Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP and Chief Actuary Michel Tremblay Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP C O N F E R E N C E C A L L P A R T I C I P A N T S Gabriel Dechaine Canaccord Genuity - Analyst Robert Sedran CIBC World Markets - Analyst Peter Routledge National Bank Financial - Analyst Tom MacKinnon BMO Capital Markets - Analyst Doug Young Desjardins Securities - Analyst Meny Grauman Cormark Securities - Analyst Sumit Malhotra Scotiabank - Analyst Mario Mendonca TD Securities - Analyst Darko Mihelic RBC Capital Markets - Analyst P R E S E N T A T I O N Welcome to the third-quarter earnings results conference call. ( Instructions) As a reminder this conference is being recorded, Wednesday, November 5, I would now like to turn the conference over to Grace Pollock. Grace Pollock - Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - Director, IR Thank you operator. Good afternoon everybody and welcome to our third-quarter conference call. All the documents related to our results including the press release, the slides, the MD&A, and the supplementary information package have been posted in the IR section of our website at This conference call is open to the financial community, the media and the general public. The question period is reserved for financial analysts. A recording will be available for one week starting at 4:30 pm this afternoon. The archived webcast will be available for 90 days and a transcript will be available on our website next week. I draw your attention to the forward-looking statements at the end of the slide package and a more detailed discussion of the Company's risks and uncertainties as provided in our 2013 MD&A available on our website. I will now turn the call over to Yvon Charest, President and CEO. Good afternoon everyone, I'm here with Normand Pepin, Rene Chabot, Michel Tremblay, Mike Stickney and Gerry Bouwers. So I'll start with a few brief comments then Normand will address business growth and Rene will finish with profit and capital and then we'll take questions. 2

3 Overall, Q3 made a good contribution to our year-to-date results. EPS and ROE are both within the guidance that we gave you for the quarter and almost right on consensus. Retail insurance had some policyholder fluctuations that reduced profit a little. But the previous four quarters in that line of business were good in terms of gains and losses. Turning to the top line we had a nice increase in premium and deposit driven primarily by individual and group wealth management. Retail fund inflows were positive reflecting the higher seg fund saves since the beginning of the year. Retail insurance sales in Canada continue to disappoint because of the drop in excess premiums this year. But overall, growth of fee-earning assets is strong, if you look at the year-over-year growth of asset in retail wealth we are talking about 15% growth which is good in term of future profits. Capital continues to be strong. Our solvency ratio remains well above our guidance despite the drop in interest rates since the beginning of the year. You could see that book value is up 12% over the last year which is slightly better than the historical 10% that we've had since the IPO. Based on our results for the year-to-date we are optimistic that we can achieve the top of our 2014 guidance and continue our growth into On that basis and in line with our payout guidance we are pleased to announce our second dividend increase this year. The next dividend payable in December would be CAD0.28 per common share, an increase of 8%. The total increase in dividends to common share holders this year is 14%. With that, I shall now turn it over to Normand. Normand Pepin - Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP Thank you, Yvon. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Overall we had a satisfactory quarter in terms of top line performance. Premiums and deposits pick up momentum and came in at CAD1.8 billion which is 11% higher than last year. In addition to higher fund flows in both our retail and group Wealth Management operation, we benefited from strong sales in Group Insurance, employer/employee and continuous strong sales from IA auto and home. In retail wealth, [net fund] sales amounted to CAD57 million versus about CAD5 million last year mainly because of the improvement in the net seg fund sales. For the year-to-date net sales of seg funds stand at CAD200 million compared with net redemptions of CAD56 million last year. As for the mutual fund business, we are encouraged by the third quarter results. Gross sales have kept up and redemption have slowed considerably since last quarter. New funds launched during the summer appear to be well received by the market. I should also mention that the IA Clarington sales team contributes positively to the net seg fund sales. In individual Insurance, sales are down by 6% in the quarter. US sales are up by 40% and sales of our individual disability business that is Excellence, were up by 15% reflecting growth across Canada. Canadian sales are still suffering from the withdrawal of the 10/8 product last year. The popularity of the participating policies which we don't sell and the time taken to adjust down our prices to catch up with our competitors. Effective this quarter, we have reduced pricing on some of our products which should help to protect our market position as the new rates take hold the next three to six months. In our group businesses, Group Wealth had a good quarter with a 44% increase in sales. Group Insurance Employees Plans is reporting a strong quarter thanks to a very large group sale. Both of these businesses can be lumpy on the top line. In Dealer Services, Special Market Solutions, and IA Auto and Home, business growth was in line with expectations. I should however, add that IA auto and home has grown its revenue by 8.4% so far this year. Finally, despite the equity market correction in September, all of the wealth management operations and broker dealers delivered growth in AUM during the third quarter which was up by 2% in the quarter and 20% over the last 12 months. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call over to Rene. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Our third quarter EPS was CAD0.91 and annualized ROE was 11.2%. These results are within our guidance of CAD0.90 to CAD1.00 for the quarter. In the same period last year, EPS was CAD1.07 and ROE was 14.9% because of unusually high mortality and market gains. That quarter was exceptional and in fact one of our best quarters ever. This year the story is different. Aside from a good quarter for IA auto and home and a hedging gain, we have adverse claims experience, a one-time item in the US related to unclaimed properties and higher strain. On an adjusted basis, after excluding the one-time item in the US, our Q3 earnings were CAD0.93 per share in line with the consensus estimate. 3

4 We took the decision this quarter to adjust expected profit to reflect recent experience in Group Insurance Employee Plans. The impact is CAD0.03 per share in each of Q3 and Q4 of 2014 and CAD0.10 per share in The other key item of note this quarter is strain. The ratio, which came at 34%, was primarily due to the lower sales volume, less favorable product mix, and lower excess premiums. We estimate that the higher strain reduced our earnings by CAD0.02 per share. For the year-to-date, our EPS is CAD2.86 and we are confident that we will achieve the top of our guidance for the full year. Income on capital was above our run rate primarily because of the higher seasonal contribution from IA auto and home, and lower financing costs. At quarter-end our solvency ratio was unchanged at 215%, as the drop in long term rates during the quarter was completely offset by the contribution from profit. As announced this morning we will be redeeming some pref shares at the end of December and this will take our solvency ratio down by six percentage points and debt ratio down to 24%., that concludes my formal comments. We will now take questions. Q U E S T I O N A N D A N S W E R Thank you. ( Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Gabriel Dechaine with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question. Good afternoon. Just want to talk about a couple things Normand brought up and Rene brought up on the individual insurance side. Sounds like you're cutting pricing, if you can give me a sense of the magnitude and how that's going to impact your strain over the next couple of quarters? And then Rene, I guess in terms of impacting the strain, it sounds like sales volumes being lower had a negative impact. How will you expect an increase in sales due to better pricing or lower pricing is going to offset some of that and be a net positive. I'm just struggling with that. Normand Pepin - Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP Oh, yes, Gabriel. It's Normand, the reduction in price is about 4%. And with respect to the strain, it's right that the level of sale as I mentioned in my opening remarks has an impact on the strain, so maybe Normand could comment if he expects that, that reduction will help. I suppose it will certainly help. It's sure that, that was one of the elements that was in the equation in order to improve this equation. If we're able to beef up the top line it will definitely help us. Actually, if you can, there was three elements that caused the strain to go up. I missed one of them. There's sales volume, lower excess premiums, and the third. Can you like break them down in terms of the importance of each? The third is the product mix, Gabriel, so that was the three main points. The lower sales volume, the lower excess premiums and the product mix, so we have basically two key elements. The pricing review, if we revised our prices it's because we want to beef up our top line and we want to address that part of the equation. 4

5 With respect to lower excess premiums, if you look at Slide 20 and 22 of your package, you have the information about the trend on these excess premiums, so you will see that just because of the mathematical formula, the more you have excess premiums basically the more your denominator is big and that's helpful also in the strain equation. In terms of percentage being said and in terms of -- and that's the reason also it has an impact on excess premiums basically. With respect to the future, keep in mind that ASB is coming into place in that quarter, so we know that it's going to be a favorable development for us in that quarter and there's also another favorable development for us in that quarter and it is in terms of reinsurance premiums that we renegotiated and we're going to get the benefit in that quarter so we have two strong positives in that quarter that will help us to address the price decrease that we just implemented in the marketplace. So we tried to balance all these elements so that we are able to manage the strain within the guidance we provided to the marketplace. Okay, so your URR is going from 3.1 to 4 plus some reinsurance pricing improvement, the combination of the two, do you expect that will offset any strain increase that's caused by lower pricing or will they even (multiple speakers) Yes it is. It is not just a URR. It is a URR, all the changes we shared with you at the Investor Day, we were sharing to you the change on the IRR, on the URR, on the stock market, on the lapse situation, all these elements all embedded with the year-end review will help us position it correctly. And by correctly, you mean strain performance similar to the first half of this year or something worse? We expect that the strain will be aligned with what we disclosed to you which is a 20% number at Q4, okay? Okay. In Q4, ASB is coming into place with all of the change we disclosed to you at Investor Day. In Q4 this rate is coming into place and as we mentioned to you at the Investor Day we were expecting that all this will be in place at that time and that we will be able to manage the strain equation. Okay, and just my last question, on the guidance for the full year, you're reiterating it but that doesn't take into account any potential reserve actions in Q4 and we can calculate what your IRR charge might be on CAD140 million- to CAD150 million-type of level. Are you expecting to offset that charge with other reserve releases, what's your outlook for the actuarial review in Q4? 5

6 You know, at current quarter end, my reserve is sufficient at current quarter end. What does it mean? It means that all the management actions that we have done up to now, with all of the interest rate that has declined in the marketplace up to now, has been accounted for and I didn't talk about ASB. So right now we are in a situation that we are very well-positioned with respect to all the current event that we see in the macroeconomic environment and we have ASB coming in place before year-end. Okay, thanks. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Sedran with CIBC World Markets. Robert Sedran - CIBC World Markets - Analyst Hi good afternoon. So maybe I'm mistaken but my understanding on the Group Insurance business is that you can typically address some of the issues with experience and a little bit of a tighter window, so I'm wondering why not only for this quarter and next quarter but also a CAD0.10 hit into 2015, can you perhaps give us a little more information on what the nature of the issue is? And if it's one policy or a group of policies that's the problem? Okay. I think we have a lot of discussions on that topic, Robert. We just basically acknowledged what we told you at the last conference call. We know that we are experimenting some losses in group life and health and we decided to say okay, just be more realistic here. Just give to the street what is the reality and the reality is that this year, we didn't make a profit so we have to -- we are expected to recognize that and what is the expectation for next year knowing what we are currently adding on? This is the minus CAD0.10 we put on that slide. So we thought that it was the best information we could provide to the street. Robert Sedran - CIBC World Markets - Analyst So Rene, when I think about next year, I guess there was originally a target of CAD4.00 and the actuarial standards changes added CAD0.20 to what I gather this take CAD0.10 away. Am I supposed to think about this now in terms of CAD4.10 as the official-unofficial target for next year? And I don't know, Yvon, if you want to offer some feelings as to how you feel about that target as you look forward into the new year? Okay I will start and Yvon will add-on. So you're right. It put the CAD4.20 to CAD4.10 and next quarter, Robert, we are going to give you the update for the guidance for next year. This is something we always address in the Fourth Quarter but all other things being equal at the current moment, it means that the CAD4.20 is CAD4.10. It's Yvon. You know, we are in our budget process right now so all we have done is to update what we told you at the Investor Day in 2012 and So we would like to take into consideration the speed at which we are growing retail Wealth Management, for example, year-over-year asset has been up 15% so we have to include all those metrics and we will come back to you in February with a more precise guidance for 2015, but as we speak, we are talking about CAD4.10. Robert Sedran - CIBC World Markets - Analyst Thank you. 6

7 Our next question comes from the line of Peter Routledge with National Bank Financial. Peter Routledge - National Bank Financial - Analyst Hi, thanks. Just coming back to the price cut, you said you're taking your prices I presume for you all, down about 4%. Since the start of the year, the Quebec three-year bond yields down 65 bips. That seems like prices are kind of going in the wrong direction. How rational is the UL market in your view? Normand Pepin - Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP Well, the market is the market and some time you think there's people that are crazy out there some time and you feel that people are very conservative. There are all sorts of behavior in the market as you can see. I would say the individual life insurance, it's capital intensive business and since it's a capital intensive business it's a lower ROE business. That's what I would say and you've seen companies going back and forth and increasing their prices and reducing their prices when they were losing market shares so as I guess we can expect that to continue. Peter Routledge - National Bank Financial - Analyst Just switching gears here. I notice seg fund sales were strong at least net sales and of course mutual funds are still a net outflow. Broad picture or maybe just ballpark numbers, how much does your seg fund business contribute to your Individual Wealth Management segment earnings and how much does your Mutual Fund business contribute? Normand Pepin - Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP Well I guess you'll have to take that one Rene. I can go back to the profit? Well, we don't, I don't think we gave that detailed information that is per businesses between the seg and the mutual. I have access to that information however and I don't know if we want to divulge -- I will just share the ballpark figures. The ballpark figures is that in terms of assets between seg and mutual funds it's 50/50. In terms of profit it's slightly better for seg funds than mutual fund because for the seg fund we benefit a bit on the distribution side because our distribution network has been matched with retail insurance, so slightly better for seg funds in term of profit but the mutual fund business is growing nicely as well. It would not be that different between the two products. Peter Routledge - National Bank Financial - Analyst Last one just on the IRR question. I think Rene, you said with the ASB changes coming in you can take the IRR assumption to 3.75%. Does that still hold? That still holds. What I said, Peter is that at quarter end, the rate is at 3.72% and I said that we have done sufficient actions in order to be able to satisfy ourselves that the reserve was sufficient at that time. So I mentioned that I'm already at 3.72% and I mentioned that ASB is coming and will give me some additional, I would say, additional room to manage what could happen in the last quarter. Peter Routledge - National Bank Financial - Analyst Okay, thank you very much. 7

8 ( Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Thomas MacKinnon with BMO Capital Markets. Tom MacKinnon - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst Thanks very much. Just a question on the CAD4.10. That includes the benefit of the pref redemption as well? No, it doesn't. Tom MacKinnon - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst So are we supposed to look at the CAD4.10, maybe you can revise this CAD4.10 number including the benefit of the pref redemption? The pref redemption would give you CAD0.06, an additional CAD0.06. Tom MacKinnon - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst So are you telling us CAD4.16 now? No, I'm not talking about CAD4.16. What I told you is that next quarter I'm going to give you an update on that topic after I have a look at all of the matrix. Tom MacKinnon - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst Okay, so for now we should say the CAD4.20 goes to CAD4.10 plus $0.06 for the benefit of the pref redemption to give us CAD4.16 and stay tuned for what happened next quarter. This is what you said, Tom. Tom MacKinnon - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst But do you agree? 8

9 What I told you is that I agree with what you said but what I told you is that we are going to give you next quarter an update on that guidance after we look at all the segment of our operations, period. Tom MacKinnon - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst Okay, so all the puts and takes, Rene that we talked about at the Investor Day, where you end up having CAD250 million to strengthen the corridor of which would help earnings next year by CAD0.20, does the fact that the IRR would presumably have, I think you talked about CAD140 million being strengthened for that at the Investor Day. The fact that long term bond yields are down even further since September 30, is there a feeling that the IRR strengthening would be higher and as a result the money put into the corridor would be lower and then as a result, you may not necessarily get the full CAD0.20? Lot's a speculation on this, Tom. We will have to wait what's going to be all the numbers at year-end in order to have clear answer on this. What you have to keep in mind is that if we look at quarter end, I told you purposely that we have done sufficient management actions to take care of the decline in rates up to quarter end. What does it mean? It means that the CAD140 million after-tax that I shared with you at Investor Day is still available in my pocket. This is what it meant. So we'll see at year-end where would be the stock markets, because sometimes they go down, sometimes they bounce back. Where will be the rates? Sometimes they go down and sometimes they bounce back, and we will give you an update on this. Tom MacKinnon - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst Okay is there any way, Rene, you can tell us what the benefit is of the reinsurance premium that you've renegotiated? It's a very good, I think it was a very good contribution that helped us to manage I would say the strain equation, to be confident about what's going to be the strain in the fourth quarter as well as next year and to allow the line of business to reduce their rates, be a bit more competitive and probably also help us, again, manage the strain equation. Tom MacKinnon - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst So this just applies to new business, is that correct? That's correct. Tom MacKinnon - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst Okay, and then help me understand that the expected profit was hurt by CAD0.03 in Group Insurance in the third quarter, so presumably you adjusted your view on expected profit and even after adjusting that view on the expected profit you were still CAD0.03 short in terms of what the actual experience was versus what you would have expected? Am I to read that correctly? 9

10 You read it correctly except that it is not related to employer/employee plans. Employer/employee plans, there is no experience gains and losses after we adjusted. It is related to other group businesses that we have in that line and it is a fluctuation we experienced in this quarter in these other lines of business. We have two main ones which is the Creditor one and we have Special Market Solutions. Both had adverse claim experience in this quarter. So just to make sure that everyone realizes what we have in each of the lines of business, if you go on Slide 11, you've got in terms of losses you have CAD0.03 in Dealer Services and CAD0.01 in Special Market so in Group Insurance we have three businesses. These two plus Employee Plans so this time around as Rene mentioned, it is in the two other businesses that performance has been below the expected profit so we'll try to be more precise next time around so that you will know in which line of business we are talking about gains and losses. So our next question comes from the line of Doug Young with Desjardins Capital Markets. Doug Young - Desjardins Securities - Analyst Yes. Good afternoon so I wanted to maybe delve into that. What exactly was the negative impact in Dealer Services and Creditor? These are businesses that you've grown quite rapidly and it sounds like you had adverse experience in this particular quarter, I don't recall it coming through materially and other quarters that caused you now to change your future profit expectations. Can you talk a little bit about in each of those two categories what's changed? I'm not sure, Doug that I got it correctly but at least the first part. So the reason we had adverse experience on the Dealer Services was related to disability claims so this is a reason we got a CAD0.03 loss, that quarter. This is not something that happens every quarter. This is just something that happened that quarter and could you just repeat what was the second part of the question? The second part is that he thought that because of the bad experience we have changed our expected profit in these two lines of business, Dealer Services and Special Markets. No. And we want to clarify that no, we have not changed the expected profit in those two segments. Doug Young - Desjardins Securities - Analyst So where are you changing -- what segment did your expected profit change come from? Sorry, I'm confused. 10

11 The employer/employee plan segment. Doug Young - Desjardins Securities - Analyst Okay, so it is in employee, okay sorry. And then that's fine and then the Dealer Services you had an increase in DI claims and then in your Special Market group you had, was it loss? No, it was DI claims too. Doug Young - Desjardins Securities - Analyst Okay, DI claims too. And is there any other particular trend that you're concerned about from these two business lines in particular or do you think this is just a one-time item? It is a one-time item in our point of view. Doug Young - Desjardins Securities - Analyst Okay and then I just want to go back to the employee benefit now that I've got a better sense of this. The employee benefit you have brought your profitability expectation down by CAD0.10 next year. If I recall and correct me if I'm wrong, I thought you had thought and that you discussed this at your last Analyst day that through different actions you were pretty confident you could improve the profitability on this business and I guess that view has changed, if that's correct? I just wanted a little more detail about why that's kind of changed. Doug, we are still confident that profit could increase. We are just telling you today that it will take more time than expected. And in terms of the analysis and actions all of that has been discussed in the previous two quarters. Doug Young - Desjardins Securities - Analyst And is this more, you just need more time on the claims side, more time to put through further price increases? Just more time to see the impact of all of the actions and the net income for the line of business. Doug Young - Desjardins Securities - Analyst Okay, great, thank you. 11

12 Our next question comes from the line of Meny Grauman with Cormark Securities. Meny Grauman - Cormark Securities - Analyst Hi. The question is about mutual fund sales first. Just wondering if you could give a little bit more color into trends you're seeing specifically do you have anymore insight into maybe when you'll see net sales turn positive again? And an update on the legacy relationship with Laurentian Bank and the impact that, that's having -- that it had on the quarter? Normand Pepin - Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP Okay, Meny. The impact of Laurentian Bank, I'm going to start with the last part of your question, it continues to be negative and they continue to redeem their funds. I would say, when do I expect to have positive sales for the mutual funds? I would hope, that I will be reporting next quarter positive sales, okay? But from what I see right now, I would think that we would be reporting positive, net positive sales if the Markets hold, so we'll see at that point but that's where we are. Meny Grauman - Cormark Securities - Analyst Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of Summit Malhotra with Scotia Bank. Sumit Malhotra - Scotiabank - Analyst Thank you, good afternoon. Just to go back to the Group Insurance business for a moment and to make sure I have this clear. So the negative experience in the quarter largely related to the Dealer Services and the Special Market Solutions but the change in expected profit expectations for 2015 in particular is back in the employee plan business. Is that the right way to characterize it, Rene? Yes, it is. Sumit Malhotra - Scotiabank - Analyst And some of the actions that you had talked about and I'm sorry for repeating some of this material. Have you successfully been able to implement pricing increases in this business or is that a process that's still ongoing and that's the primary reason you've had to change the expected profit outlook? As we mentioned in our last two Conference Calls, Sumit, this is a business that renews its contract every year so we always review the pricing equation every year. 12

13 Sumit Malhotra - Scotiabank - Analyst Alright, let me just try one more on the strain side of the business. You gave a fullsome answer before in terms of Q4 and strain being in the vicinity of 20%. I just wanted to make sure. Does that contemplate the 4% average price reduction you've talked about and would you be contemplating strain in that 20% range for 2015 as well? Or, is that something we'll have to wait for? It's included, the 4% price decrease that we just introduced in the marketplace and when I was talking about the 20%, I was talking specifically about Q4 of this year. With respect to next year, I mentioned that I'm confident that we are going to continue to manage it correctly or appropriately and you will have to wait for next quarter to see what's going to be our guidance on that topic. Sumit Malhotra - Scotiabank - Analyst Thanks for your time. ( Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Mario Mendonca with TD Securities. Good afternoon, Yvon and Rene. If we just take a step back and look at how 2014 has played out so far and I'm specifically referring to policyholder experience and there's certainly been periods in the past when the company's had some negative policyholder experience but, every quarter so far this year, the first three quarters there's been something that's gone wrong, from policyholder perspective. And what's important here is that we're not seeing that same level of pain going on at your peers, the other insurers so, Yvon and perhaps Rene, what's different about this year for Industrial Alliance? Because the Industrial Alliance I grew up watching would have been able to deal with all these issues by now and would have put this behind them. What's different this year for Industrial Alliance? Mario, I just want to make one comment versus peers and then Rene would be more than willing to answer. My point has to do that for every organization, it depends to what extent you try in your expected profit to really show what is expected from your organization. Any company might decide to have a lower expected profit and then announce great news and development for everyone, so you have to consider both the growth in expected profit and to what extent you know you have been able to project what will be your earning power and in our organization, you know that we try to share with you our best estimate. We don't just, we don't like the idea to let money in our pocket because at the end of the day you will always guess to what extent and how conservative we have been. Mario? 13

14 Yes. If I could, add-on Yvon's comment. I think that the big difference with our Company is the employer/employee plan situation. And at the last conference call, we noticed that other companies seem to start having some issue also in that segment which was some kind of positive information for us. It's always a bit negative when you are the only one with an issue so if there is more than one carrier having an issue it brings some market discipline out there. So when you talk about experience loss for our organization, if you eliminate employer/employee plan you will probably have a different picture when we are going to look at these rolling nine numbers that we provide to you. In the last 2.5 years, employer/employee plan has been quite detrimental in terms of gain or loss in our company and this is the bigger element. That's the reason we took action in a sense that we decided to send to the marketplace, the message that we have to reduce our expectation for 2015 because it's going to take some time to address this situation. So Rene, you think that I'm perhaps overstating it by referring to all of the other policyholder experiences? You'd say that really, the issue this year is in Employee Plans, so any mention of mortality or lapsation, you'd call that a bit of an overstatement then? It's the -- I would say it's the elephant in the room, the employer/employee plan situation right now. I wouldn't say that there's nothing on the lapse side. I have CAD0.01 this quarter on the lapse side so there is some small elements on the lapse side we have experimented this year and we already mentioned to you at the Investor Day we were planning action with respect to that, but the big piece for me is necessarily the employer/employee plan situation. And Mario, if I could just add, if you look at the source of earnings by line of business, you look at retail insurance and if you remove, you know the unclaimed properties in Q3 because of the US, it's pretty flat so far this year in terms of gain and loss, and then you take retail Wealth Management, it's quite positive. In Group Insurance as Rene mentioned, if you remove Employee Plans of course it would have been positive and basically, it's flat for Group Pension, so all-in, except for Employee Plans, we're pretty much right on our growth for expected profit which was 14% for the first three quarters of the year. Yes, and if we could go take that route now a little bit, Yvon, your opening point was a good one. That it depends on where a company discloses or where the company books their expected profit relative to experience gains or sorry, whether it goes through expected profit or experience gains but to that point specifically, if you take a look at the expected profit and experience gains together this quarter, you're looking at about $110 million and if you compare that to last year, last year that number was $137 million, so irrespective or regardless of how the split works, when you add them together you're still, there's still deterioration. Yes, but Mario, you have to remember that last year, it was our best ever quarter where we had huge mortality gains in that quarter, I think it was $0.12. We had huge market gain in that quarter. It was, one of a kind of a quarter. 14

15 But would that also be true then of Q when you add them together it was like 120 some, so presumably Q was also a very special quarter then for experience gains? Yes, but just remove my losses from employer/employee plan in that quarter and probably these two numbers would be much closer together. I agree. So maybe just another direction then to go, Yvon. It would seem what's happening with the Company from my perspective is that there may not be the pricing power, in Individual Insurance I get it, I appreciate there might be some peers here that aren't playing ball on the pricing. But if you go specifically to Group Insurance now where you've got three very, very large players, especially now that Manulife is picking up Standard Life, are the large players starting to raise pricing in a way that will allow you to escape back onside and deliver positive results there? Well, if you look at the macro picture if you take the industry two elements matter. In our case between 2003 and 2010, we made an average CAD18 million of profit a year in Employee Plans and if you take the last 10 years with the exception of 2013, the premium growth for all second-tier players taken together has been larger than the premium increase of the big three so it means that strategically distributors would like to have choice. They don't want to just shop around within three organizations, so we have been able to demonstrate to all the second tier players that we were able to have an impact and grow our businesses because that line of business -- for that line of business, service level is very important and we have been able to demonstrate that we're doing a good job there. So the global picture I don't think has changed dramatically lately. Perhaps we have been late to see and to realize that we had to make some changes in terms of pricing, so I don't see that the global picture for the industry has changed. Are the three large ones raising pricing? Well all of us are in different markets because our target market is for groups between 50 and 1,000 employees. We are not much in the larger groups where you know you are offering proposals to 5,000 employees and more, and of course if you look at the last quarter, most companies indicated that they had negative disability experience so yes you would assume that they will have increased their price as well. My last question for Rene, this is a very -- this is much more from a positive perspective. You've been clear with us now that $120 million or $140 million that maybe was previously earmarked to strengthen the IRR has been accomplished with management actions so that implies to me that there's something like $540 million minus the $250 million that might go to broaden the corridor for equity -- for NFIs. That's a large number that can go towards strengthening reserves for lapse, disability, you name it. It can go to strengthen a bunch of things. Can I interpret that to mean that policyholder experience in 2015 should be significantly better than what we've seen in 2014 assuming the underlying trends don't worsen? 15

16 I don't know if I should answer the question, Mario. What is totally right, it's all the first part of your comment is totally right, okay? Up to when you start talking about lapse assumptions, so I wouldn't go as far as that. I would say that all the first part is correct and is right. The $540 million after-tax you have in mind is right. What I will share with you is the following. You have to keep in mind that all year long, I was talking to you about what we call our mismatch provision in other segments, my layer one as well as my management actions that I was always putting together to tell you every quarter our reserve was sufficient. You have to keep in mind that when I tell you that at current quarter end, I'm able to absorb all the interest rate decline. I have used up all my layer one mismatch position. So part of the money you're talking to me would probably be used to just position myself in the exact same position that I was before. Okay. I think I follow you now. But going back to that final question I asked which is should policyholder experience necessarily be better next year with all these excess reserves? Assuming underlying trends don't carry. Policyholder behaviours we will have to wait and see (multiple speakers) I don't mean, sorry just to clarify. When I say policyholder experience I don't mean lapsation. I mean all types of policyholder experience whether it's mortality, morbidity, disability, lapsation, anything non-macro related. We will have to delay the answer to that question, Mario, when we will have finished all our year-end review so that I will have to give you a better comment on this. Sounds good, thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Darko Mihelic with RBC. Darko Mihelic - RBC Capital Markets - Analyst Hi good afternoon. I wanted to ask for a little more clarity on the price reduction of 4% and my question really stems from the following. Does a 4% reduction in your pricing, where does that put you vis-a-vis your competitors? Normand Pepin - Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP Darko, we believe that we are certainly more competitive than we were, we're certainly not the top one in the market. 16

17 Darko Mihelic - RBC Capital Markets - Analyst And is it possible that the sales experience that you're having could be otherwise explained by things not related to price? Normand Pepin - Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP Yes. I mean there is certainly a part of it. It's pretty hard to assess exactly how much but the participating policies that are being sold right now that are very popular, we're not in that market. There's always some sales that we lost to that, to these I would say companies that sell participating policies. But I can't quantify it. Darko Mihelic - RBC Capital Markets - Analyst And why have you chosen now to reduce prices? Normand Pepin - Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP Well, I would say we've been, we took time to adjust I would say because we were certainly not I would say at some point, very competitive and we wanted to see if the market could bear the kind of pricing that we had but because you know that we're trying to manage a strain, we're trying to manage sales and keep all of that in synch. So we, like I said we took more time to adjust we really we wanted to test the market and see what the market could bear and now we've came to the conclusion that we had, it was better for us to adjust price than lose market share. Darko Mihelic - RBC Capital Markets - Analyst Okay and I guess the crux of my questioning is I mean this quarter, you've adjusted expected profit lower in employee but I guess my question is with respect to the premiums and deposits for individual sales numbers, none of them actually look very impressive and I suppose if you adjust prices downward and you don't get an improvement in sales, would we be forced at some point in the near future to also adjust our expected profit expectations for the individual insurance line to go lower? I don't think it is, I think it's going to take a very, very long time that there is a link between these two situations. Darko Mihelic - RBC Capital Markets - Analyst So policyholder experience has been negative in Individual Insurance and sales are weak but expected profit can sort of continue at this low rate of growth I think is what you're suggesting. Would that be the way to paraphrase that? What I would suggest is that because you open another door you mentioned, experience is weak. This quarter, we have a loss in individual life insurance in terms of our experience. We have an experienced loss. It's mostly a big piece of it is really to the unclaimed property in the United States. That's one of the pieces and what I'm suggesting is that if we sell less, it's going to take a lot of years of selling less to start adding reduction of our expected profit in force. Darko Mihelic - RBC Capital Markets - Analyst Okay, fair enough. Thank you very much. 17

18 Our next question comes from the line of Gabriel Dechaine with Canaccord. Just wanted to follow-up. The pref redemption you also have another pref that's redeemable at the end of Q1 that's about a 6% coupon. Just wondering what the thinking is there whether you might want to redeem that out right or just refinance it, considering you're below your target leverage ratio and just for the sales that you anticipating under the new pricing for UL, what's the mix, like what's the proportion of sales you expect to be on the new pricing schedule? Because that also has an impact on your potential strain? Michel Tremblay - Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP Gabriel, it's Michel Tremblay. About the redemption of the Series F pref shares, this is not something we've talked so far. The redemption of the Series E preferred was part of the plan we established at the end of the year for management of capital. Next year it will depend on a lot of factors. Capital but also market behavior, acquisitions, year-end revision so it's too early to answer that question right now, Gabriel. Well if we were in the same situation as we are today, what would the answer be? Michel Tremblay - Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP It would have to be discussed, it's not been discussed so far so it's still too early to answer that question. Are you under any or do you have an appetite to lower your leverage ratio even further, let's put it that way? Michel Tremblay - Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - EVP We said, we like to have more flexibility but we like the position we're in right now. Okay. And on the pricing? On the pricing, Gabriel, the reduction in price, the objective was mostly to help up the top line basically and with respect to the product mix, the product mix it's mostly the high end network marketplace that is the most important element out there. As you see we don't have the level of excess premiums that we were used to have and the high end network we were used to have a bit more of the UL YRT business than we had in the family market so this is mostly if we could catch up a little bit more of that high network, that would help us in the product mix and that would help us also in the strain equation. 18

19 Okay, and but in previous years, you kind of gave guidance of what kind of sales you expect to come from your at the time higher priced products and how that played into your strain forecast. I'm just wondering what you're considering or what you believe your sales mix will be at the lower price product in the next quarter? I don't have anything else to share with you, Gabriel on that topic. Okay, thank you. There are no further questions at this time. Mrs. Pollock, I'll turn the call back to you. Please continue with your presentation or closing remarks. Grace Pollock - Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc - Director, IR So that will conclude our conference call for today. If you have any additional questions please call us at and thank you for joining us today. Ladies and Gentlemen that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation. D I S C L A I M E R Thomson Reuters reserves the right to make changes to documents, content, or other information on this web site without obligation to notify any person of such changes. In the conference calls upon which Event Transcripts are based, companies may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items. Such forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those stated in any forwardlooking statement based on a number of important factors and risks, which are more specifically identified in the companies' most recent SEC filings. Although the companies may indicate and believe that the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements are reasonable, any of the assumptions could prove inaccurate or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no assurance that the results contemplated in the forward-looking statements will be realized. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN EVENT TRANSCRIPTS IS A TEXTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL AND WHILE EFFORTS ARE MADE TO PROVIDE AN ACCURATE TRANSCRIPTION, THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE CONFERENCE CALLS. IN NO WAY DOES THOMSON REUTERS OR THE APPLICABLE COMPANY ASSUME ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS MADE BASED UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ON THIS WEB SITE OR IN ANY EVENT TRANSCRIPT. USERS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL ITSELF AND THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S SEC FILINGS BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS Thomson Reuters. All Rights Reserved. 19

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