VENTURING INTO A QUOTA-FREE WORLD : - The Ready-made Garment Industry of Bangladesh

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1 VENTURING INTO A QUOTA-FREE WORLD : - The Ready-made Garment Industry of Bangladesh Edited by Abdur Razzaque Selim Raihan s >»ii\i'u^!i.' o SOUTH ASIAN NETWORK ON ECONOMIC MODELING PATHAK SHAMABESH Dhaka, Bangladesh 2008

2 CONTENT Chapter 1: List of Tables 11 List of Figures ' 13 List of Boxes 15 Contributors 17 Abbreviations 19 Preface 21 Bangladesh's Apparel Exports in A Quota-free World: An Overview Abdur Ra^aque and Selim Raihan 1.1 Background Papers in This Volume and Their Main Findings 28 Chapter 2: Readymade Garment Exports and Bangladesh's Economy Abdur Ra^aque, Muhammad]ami Hussain and Abu Eusuf 2.1 Growth of Exports and Contribution of the RMG Sector Employment RMG Exports and Macroeconomic Balances Linkage and Poverty Alleviating Effects Conclusion 51 Appendix A2.1 Export Expansion Hypothesis 53 Appendix A2.2 Backward Linkages of the Activities in the National I-O Table 55 Appendix A2.3 Output Increase in Different Sectors Due to One Unit Tncrease in the Demand for RMG output 56 Appendix A2.4 SAM Output Multiplier by Sectors 58 Appendix A2.5 Decomposition of the SAM Output Multiplier 59 Appendix A2.6 A Comparison of Multiplier Effects of Various Sectors on Female Unskilled Labour 60 Appendix A2.7 Poverty Alleviating Effects of RMG on Urban Households 62 Chapter 3: Implications of MFA Quota Phase-out: Findings of Academic Studies Abdur Rasgaque 3.1 Textile and Clothing Trade under Quantitative Restrictions Ex-ante Assessment of the Impact of the Removal of MFA Quotas Assessing the consequences of MFA Phase-Out for Bangladesh 68

3 V E N T U R I N G INTO A Q U O T A - F R E E W O R L D : THE R E A D Y - M A D E G A R M E N T INDUSTRY OF B A N G L A D E S H 3.4 Main Results for Bangladesh Qualifications of Empirical Findings 82 Chapter 4: After MFA Phase-Out: Errterging Trends and Concerns for Bangladesh Abdur Rasgaque and Selim Raihan 4.1 Growth of RMG Exports and Concerns in the Post-MF A Period Actual Export Performance after the MFA Phase-Out Factors behind the Post-MFA Developments and Future Implications Conclusion ' 99 Chapter 5: International Competitiveness of Bangladesh's Garment Exports Abdur Rasgaque andmomota^ur Rahman 5.1 International Competitiveness Assessing International Competitiveness of Bangladesh Methodology for Studying the Relative Competitiveness Data and Results Changing Relative Competitiveness under Alternative Scenarios Some Caveats of the Analysis 121 Chapter 6: Duty-free Access to the USA: Potential Effects on Bangladesh's Apparel Exports Abdur Ra^ppque 6.1 High Tariff Barriers in the US Market Impact of Tariff-free Access A Partial Equilibrium Model Results Some Caveats 132 Appendix 6.1: Effects of the Elimination of US tariffs on Bangladesh's RMG Products: Estimates for Top 60 Individual Commodities at the HS-10 Digit Level (with the unitary export supply and import demand elasticities) 134 Appendix A6.2: Estimated Effects of 50 per cent Reduction of US Textile and Clothing Tariffs 135 Chapter 7: How Do Discriminatory Tariff Preferences Hurt Bangladesh? An Empirical Investigation on Mexico's Duty-free Access to the US Abdur Ra^aque 7.1 Understanding the Effects of Discriminatory Tariff Preferences The Theoretical Framework Data Estimation Results Estimation of Welfare Loss of Bangladesh Implications for Bangladesh 152

4 CONTENTS Chapter 8: Duty-free and Quota-free Market Access for LDCs: Implications for Bangladesh's Apparel Exports, Welfare and Poverty Incidence Selim Raihan, Abdur Ratgaquc and Rabeya Khatoon 8.1 Introduction LDCs and Trade Preferences Methodology for Studying the Welfare Implications of DFQF Market Access Simulation Design for DFQF Scenarios and Outcomes The Impacts of DFQF Scenarios on die Bangladesh Economy Concluding Observations 174 Appendix A8.1: A Note on the Global and Country CGE Models for Poverty and Welfare Analysis 177 Appendix A8.2.1: Decomposition of DFQF Scenarios for All Regions 188 Appendix A8.2.2: Effects on Sectoral Prices and Export Demand Shock (% deviation from the business as usual scenario) 189 Appendix A8.2.3: Effects on Sectoral Volumes (% deviation from the business as usual scenario) 190 Appendix A8.2.4: Effects on Income and Welfare (% deviation from the business as usual situation) 191 Appendix A8.2.5: Poverty in the BAU Scenario, and the Effects of different DFQF Scenarios on Household Poverty (percentage deviation from the BAU path) 192 Chapter 9: WTO NAMA Negotiations and Apparel Exports: Implications for Bangladesh Selim Raihan and Abdur Ra^aque 9.1 Introduction NAMA Negotiations The Concerns over Possible Preference Erosion for LDCs Different NAMA Scenarios: GTAP Simulation Designs Effects of NAMA Scenarios: GTAP Simulation Results The Impacts of NAMA Scenarios on the Bangladesh Economy Conclusion 212 Appendix A9.1: Decomposition of the Welfare Effects of NAMA scenarios in all regions 214 Appendix A9.2: Effects on Sectoral Prices (Per centage deviation from the BAU Path), and Export Demand Shock 215 Appendix A9.3: Effects on Sectoral Volumes (per ccntagc deviation from the BAU path) 216 Appendix A9.4: Effects on Income and Welfare (percentage deviation from the BAU path) 217 Appendix A9.5: Poverty in the BAU Scenario, and the Effects of different NAMA Scenarios on Household Poverty (percentage deviation from the BAU path) 218

5 V E N T U R I N G I N T O A Q U O T A - F R E E W O R L D : THE R E A D Y - M A D E G A R M E N T I N D U S T R Y OF B A N G L A D E S H Chapter 10: Macroeconomic and Welfare Implications of Different RMG Export Shock Scenarios Selim Raiban and Ba^lulH. K/jondker 10.1 Introduction Methodology The Bangladesh Social Accounting Matrix for 1995/ Model Features Simulation Design Simulation Outcomes ;, Simulation 1: 25% Decline in World Demand for Bangladesh's RMG " Simulation 2: 5% Increase in World Demand for RMG Exports from Bangladesh Simulation 3: 10% Decline in Prices for RMG Exports from Bangladesh Conclusion 234 Appendix A10.1: The Equations of the CGE Model 236 Chapter 11: Effects of Changes in Garment Exports on Employment, Factor Earnings and Poverty Incidence: Results from an Integrated Modelling Approach Ba^lul H. Khondker 11.1 Introduction Approaches to Capture Trade-Poverty Linkages Methodology Dynamic SAM Multiplier Model Simulation Design Simulation Outcomes Changes in Value Added Impacts on Employment and Factor Earnings Poverty Incidence Conclusion 253 Chapter 12: Factors Affecting RMG Exports in the Post-MFA Period Abdur Ra^aque and Selim Raihan 12.1 Demand Side Problems Supply side Problems 260 Appendix A12.1: Export-oriented RMG Industry: A Balance Sheet of Challenges and Options 266 References 272 Index 276

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