Data-Driven Planning and Budgeting for Net Tuition Revenue

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1 Data-Driven Planning and Budgeting for Net Tuition Revenue Presenters: Kathy Kurz, Vice President, Scannell & Kurz Mike Frandsen, Vice President for Finance and Administration at Oberlin College (formerly VP for Finance at Albion College)

2 Overview Today s Climate Analytical techniques for targeting aid to increase NTR Trend-based financial aid budgeting Albion case study

3 Source: WICHE The Demographic Climate

4 Michigan HS Graduates

5 Today s Climate Students are applying to more schools and competition for them is increasing. The number of students applying for aid has increased. More families are appealing their first aid offer. State aid programs are being reduced or eliminated.

6 Today s Climate Negative press is creating inaccurate perceptions about educational costs and financial aid. Merit awards are seen as reducing need-based aid when actually the vast majority of merit money also meets need. Borrowing for educational expenses is increasingly seen as a bad thing, making students loan averse. The ROI of a college education is increasingly being called into question. 6

7 Today s Climate Families are increasingly price sensitive Average family spent less on college in than in (Sallie Mae s How America Pays for College survey) In 2013 only 57% of students admitted to first choice institution chose to attend it. Cost and aid were significant influencers of that decision. (The American Freshman National Norms for 2013.) Many private institutions have seen their discount rates increase without corresponding increases in enrollment. This has contributed to both Moody s and S&P releasing negative outlooks for higher education

8

9 Today s Climate What drives the discount rate? Market forces (i.e., competition) Changes in ability to pay Trends in family contributions Percentage of students applying for aid Changes in willingness to pay (lower yields on full pay students) Changes in the availability of government support Institutional goals (commitments to diversity, quality, etc.)

10 Today s Climate Institutions are struggling to understand how to adjust their aid policies in this environment. From NACUBO Tuition Discounting Survey: We made an attempt to decrease our discount rate through targeted enrollment strategies meant to increase the yield of full-pay students. And no, the strategies were not all that successful. When another college tried to reduce its discount rate: Enrollment plunged.

11 Today s Climate Successful institutions: Focus on improving the value proposition and differentiating offerings, not just winning on affordability. Recognize that new strategies may be needed. Get the right people involved in understanding the trends and setting realistic budget targets. Focus on NTR not just class size or discount rate. Use data to understand price sensitivity and drive awarding strategies.

12 Analytical Techniques for Targeting Aid to Increase NTR Competitor Benchmarking Yield Analysis Predictive Modeling and Simulations

13 Avoiding Data Pitfalls Benchmark with competitors, not peers or aspirants. Do not delete aid offers for non-enrolled students. Capture all aid offers, including those made by Admissions Athletics Departments Capture data on all appeals, whether or not additional aid was offered.

14 Competitor Benchmarking Tuition & Fees Estimated Net Tuition & Fees Freshman Discount Rate * Fall 2012 Accept Rate Fall 2012 SAT 25-75% U.S. News Ranking 2014 (America's Best Colleges) College/University Institution A $32,776 $13, % 69.5% NLAC below 150 Institution B $34,484 $19, % 79.7% NLAC # Institution C $41,510 $27, % 43.3% NLAC #51-99 Institution D $43,270 $18, % 70.2% NLAC #51-99 Institution E $44,210 $27, % 39.9% NLAC top 50 Institution F $44,360 $29, % 38.5% NLAC top 50 Institution G $44,551 $25, % 41.9% NLAC top 50 * Discount rate has been calculated using IPEDS data which, on occasion, have been found to be inaccurate. Sources - College/University website, U.S. News & World Report and IPEDS

15 Yield Analysis In general, when grants to a group of admits are increased, yield increases but the average NTR generated declines. Depending on how much yield increases, increasing grant can either raise or lower the total net tuition revenue generated by that group of students.

16 Price Elastic Example Tuition = $25,000; SAT = 1200+; Need = $10,000-$12,000 Current Grant Offer New Grant Offer Grant Offer Admit Enroll Yield NTR Admit Enroll Yield NTR $5, % $700, % $1,540,000 $3, % $528, $0 Total % $1,228, % $1,540,000 Projected Gain in NTR from increasing grant = $312,000

17 Predictive Modeling Considers multiple variables at once Supports simulations of alternative approaches Provides powerful tradeoff analysis

18 Sample Model Factors

19 Expected Net Tuition Revenue Price Elasticity Elasticity Tells You Which Side Of The Peak You Are On Elastic Inelastic Grant

20 Simulation of Alternative Strategies Does the new policy really increase net tuition revenue? What is the impact on total class size? What is its impact on geographic or ethnic diversity? On the student quality profile?

21 Sample Simulation Summary Table: Predicted Class (Baseline) Add Needbased Aid Lower aid for Lower Q Larger Cuts for Lower Q Enrollment Institutional Grant $10,247,214 $11,498,219 $9,355,848 $7,637,731 NTR $9,144,787 $8,687,059 $9,565,578 $10,139,259 Discount 52.8% 57.0% 49.4% 43.0% High School GPA Avg. SAT Applied for Aid 84.5% 85.1% 83.0% 82.4% % Female 64.4% 64.6% 64.2% 64.2% % Catholic 56.2% 56.1% 55.9% 56.1% % Honors 13.1% 12.8% 12.3% 13.1% % Minority 51.1% 51.8% 50.4% 48.4% % Pell Grant Recipients 35.9% 36.8% 33.1% 30.9% % First Generation 42.0% 42.5% 40.3% 38.5% % In-State 82.3% 82.0% 81.5% 81.1%

22 Data-Driven Budget Planning The simulations provide a basis for discussions about tradeoffs and, ultimately, for setting budget targets for incoming students (NTR, discount rate, class size). To budget for returning students, use a byclass year, trend-based approach. 22

23 Sample Cohort-Based Budget Model Students Avg. Grant Students Avg. Grant Students Avg. Grant Students Avg. Grant Freshmen 500 $13, $13, $13, $13,700 Sophomores 450 $10, $13, $13, $13,700 Juniors 425 $9, $10, $13, $13,700 Seniors 400 $9, $9, $10, $13,700 Total 1775 $10, $11, $12, $13,700 Tuition $28,000 $28,840 $29,705 $30,596 FR Discount Rate 48.93% 47.50% 46.12% 44.78% Total DR 38.45% 40.94% 43.14% 44.78% Retention Assumptions FR to So 0.75 So to JR 0.89 JR to SR 0.95 Tuition Incr (Actual) 2014 (Actual) 2015 (Projected) 2016 (Projected)

24 Albion Case Study 24

25 Kathy, thanks for reminding me MI among the states with greatest projected decline in HS graduates Albion enrollment ~90% Michiganders Local challenges along with the broader challenges we all face 25

26 Fall 2009 cohort 50 student drop from prior year 70+ drop from prior four year average Time to reassess Stamats 26

27 Stamats recommended that Albion engage a partner for predictive modeling of total revenue based on financial aid strategies and elasticity. 27

28 Institutional tradeoffs Size of entering class Quality of entering class Revenue from entering class Retention of entering class 28

29 Maximize total net revenue Maintain quality 29

30 Year #1 Late start with S&K, many decisions already made Partial implementation of recommendations RESULTS Increase in net revenue per first-year student for the first time in 5 years One more first-year student BUT, terrible retention 30

31 Year #2 More timely information from Albion to S&K and from S&K back to Albion Still some information we did not have Implemented the majority of S&K s recommendations RESULT Net revenue per first-year student up double digits Smaller class, more revenue Retention improved by 10% 31

32 Year #3 New Enrollment Management leadership Implemented some of S&K s recommendations RESULT Net revenue per first-year student down slightly (but still up by double digits from two years prior) Smaller class Retention up again 32

33 So What? Using data, and trusting data, led to better results The more we trusted the data, the better our results 33

34 So What? Having data led to: More discussions about tradeoffs Better understanding of issues by the Board Better planning for returning student revenue Better thinking about our value proposition and how it was being communicated 34

35 So What? But did not lead to: Data-based planning for new student revenue; still planned for what we hoped 35

36 A Caution The market is changing so fast that one needs to be careful with too much reliance on the past 36

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