US HOUSING MARKET ANALYST

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1 US HOUSING MARKET ANALYST Q nd Jul. Higher rates will not derail the housing recovery Executive Summary The recent strength of housing activity suggests the market is well placed to cope with a gradual rise in interest rates. Indeed, with credit conditions gradually loosening and affordability very favourable, we expect sales and prices to enjoy further gains. (Page.) Economic Backdrop We expect the economy to rebound from the weather-related weakness at the start of the year. GDP growth should reach.% this year and.% in. (Pages -.) Valuations & Affordability Interest rates will soon begin to rise. However, favourable valuations and affordability will support the housing recovery for some time yet. (Pages -.) Activity A long-overdue upturn in mortgage lending should support further growth in new and existing home sales over the next couple of years. (Pages -.) Supply Along with an upturn in homebuilding, the improving environment for sellers should ensure that supply begins to loosen over the coming months. (Pages -.) House Prices The recent tightness of supply could cause price growth to accelerate to around.% this year. Further ahead, price growth will slow as housing reaches fair value. (Pages -.) Alternative House Price Scenarios A lack of any further loosening in credit conditions could put a dampener on activity, causing price growth to slow over the next couple of years. (Pages -.) Homebuilding We expect strengthening demand for new homes and a further easing in labour and materials shortages to help housing starts reach.m by end-. (Pages -.) Rental Market The rental vacancy rate is close to a -year low. We expect this to cause an acceleration in rental value growth to around % both this year and next. (Pages -.) State Outlook High levels of undervaluation and solid economic performance mean that the shortterm housing prospects once again appear most promising in Ohio. (Pages -.) Ed Stansfield & Andrew Hunter Tel: + () North America Europe Asia Bloor Street West, Suite Buckingham Palace Road #- Toronto, ON London Income at Raffles MW E SWW TR Collyer Quay Canada United Kingdom Singapore, Tel: + Tel: + () Tel: + Executive Chairman Chief Property Economist Chief US Economist Assistant Economist Roger Bootle (roger.bootle@capitaleconomics.com) Ed Stansfield (ed.stansfield@capitaleconomics.com) Paul Ashworth (paul.ashworth@capitaleconomics.com) Andrew Hunter (andrew.hunter@capitaleconomics.com) US Housing Market Analyst

2 Executive Summary The recent strength of housing activity suggests Stronger sales will continue to drive decent the market is well placed to cope with a price growth. Indeed, we are forecasting that gradual rise in interest rates. Indeed, with the strength of the wider economy combined credit conditions gradually loosening and with the recent tight supply conditions will see affordability very favourable, we expect sales price growth accelerate to around.% this and prices to continue rising steadily. year. This compares to the consensus forecast for price growth of only.%. We expect the economy to rebound from the temporary weakness at the start of the year, Further ahead, a falling share of homeowners with GDP growth reaching.% this year in negative equity should encourage more before accelerating to.% in. The Fed people to move. Supply conditions will is likely to begin raising interest rates in therefore begin to loosen. As a result, we September. Moreover, rising wage inflation expect price growth to slow to around % in will subsequently prompt a more aggressive and similar to our forecasts for tightening than is widely anticipated. The fed nominal income growth. funds rate could be as high as.% by the end of next year. Of course, if an adverse reaction in the bond market caused the Fed to delay raising interest But even our above-consensus profile for Fed rates, price growth could be as high as % tightening is unlikely to derail the housing both this year and next. However, the absence recovery. Affordability is very favourable by of any further loosening in credit conditions historic standards and will remain so even as could cause price growth to slow to just %. interest rates begin to rise. Our forecasts that home sales and prices will What s more, credit conditions are being continue to grow steadily should support gradually loosened. Combined with the recent continued strong growth in homebuilding. strength of employment and income growth, Housing starts recently recovered from the this is already supporting an increase in unseasonably harsh winter to reach a seven- activity. Home sales have reached an eight- year high. And with land, labour and materials year high and mortgage demand is showing shortages continuing to ease, we expect starts signs of a long-overdue upturn. to reach.m by end-. We expect these trends to continue, with Finally, rental demand is very strong. This has renewed strength in the mortgage market kept the rental vacancy rate close to its lowest supporting further growth in home sales over level in more than years. We expect this to the next couple of years. From.m in, cause a sharp acceleration in rental value we expect total home sales to average.m growth, to as high as % both this year and this year before rising to m in. This next. Combined with our forecasts for house would be the highest rate of sales in years. prices, this should ensure total returns of %- % over the next couple of years. US Housing Market Analyst

3 Main Forecasts TABLE : NATIONAL HOUSE PRICES Forecasts Forecasts Q/Q Year Forecasts Q Qf Qf Qf Qf Qf Qf Qf f f f Case-Shiller Prices (s.a.) (%q/q) (%y/y) TABLE : NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS Forecasts Forecasts Year Average Forecasts Q Qf Qf Qf Qf Qf Qf Qf f f f Total Home Sales (Mill, Ann.) (%y/y) New Sales (Mill, Ann.) (%y/y) Existing Sales (Mill, Ann.) (%y/y) Homes For Sale (Mill.) (%y/y) New (Mill.) (%y/y) Existing (Mill.) (%y/y) Housing Starts (s, Ann.) (%y/y) Single-family (s, Ann.) Multi-family (s, Ann) Real Residential Investment (%y/y) Land Prices (%q/q) Rents (%y/y) Rental Yield (%) Total Rental Return (%) Seasonally adjusted by Capital Economics. Before tax & depreciation. (%q/q annualised TABLE : NATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS Forecasts Forecasts Year Average Forecasts unless otherwise stated) Q Qf Qf Qf Qf Qf Qf Qf f f f GDP Real Personal Disposable Income Unemployment Rate (%) CPI Inflation (%) Fed Funds Rate (%) Year Treasury Yield (%) Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (%) End period. Sources - Thomson Datastream, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Capital Economics US Housing Market Analyst

4 Economic Backdrop Rising inflation will force Fed to hike rates aggressively in The unusually weak start to the year, which we The sizeable rebound in underlying retail sales believe was principally due to the record cold since March, which has more than reversed winter in the Northeast, doesn't change our the earlier weakness between December and view that the US economy will perform February, illustrates why we are now confident strongly over the next months. We now that weakness was a temporary blip caused by expect GDP growth of only.% in, but the unseasonably bad winter. (See Chart.) it should accelerate to.% in, before Nevertheless, even allowing for the weather, tighter monetary policy prompts a slowdown our initial belief that the drop in energy prices, to.% in. (See Chart.) and the resulting surge in real incomes, would provide a big boost to real consumption Admittedly, the slump in the shale oil industry growth proved wide of the mark. also partly explains the weakness of firstquarter GDP. The contraction in drilling The pace of employment growth has also activity suggests that mining investment will rebounded in recent months, and the remain a significant drag on the economy in unemployment rate has fallen to.%. The the second quarter. (See Chart.) However, decline in the unemployment rate over the mining investment should then quickly bottom past few years is now having a more out and may even rebound a little later this pronounced impact on wage growth. (See year. Chart.) The employment cost index shows private wage growth accelerating to.% y/y The dollar's appreciation will act as a drag on in the first quarter. net exports for the next couple of quarters, with the export-orientated manufacturing We anticipate a further acceleration in wage sector most affected. The ISM manufacturing growth to.% by the end of. In an index was recently at a two-year low and environment where productivity growth is manufacturing output has stagnated this year. unusually muted, higher wages will put more (See Chart.) Nevertheless, in a relatively upward pressure on price inflation. Both the closed, service-based economy like the US, CPI and PCE measures show core consumer currency shifts are of secondary importance. prices increasing at a faster pace in recent What matters more is that the ISM non- months. (See Chart.) manufacturing index remains at a relatively high level. The potential for a more marked pick-up in wage growth and core price inflation over the In the early years of this recovery, GDP growth next months is the main reason why we was held back by tight credit conditions. Seven expect the Fed to raise interest rates much years after the financial crisis struck, however, more aggressively than either Fed officials or broad money and bank credit are now growing the markets current anticipate. We forecast at a very healthy pace. (See Chart.) that by the end of next year the fed funds rate will be close to.%. (See Chart.) US Housing Market Analyst

5 Economic Backdrop Charts Chart : Real GDP (%q/q Annualised) Chart : Mining Investment & Drilling Rigs (%q/q Ann.) Number of Rigs in Operation Investment In Mining Structures Chart : ISM Activity Surveys ISM Non-Manufacturing ISM Manufacturing Chart : Broad Money & Bank Credit (%y/y) - - M* Bank Loans - - Chart : Personal Income & Underlying Retail Sales (%m/m). Real Disposable Income Underlying Retail Sales (Ex. Autos, Gasoline & Building Materials) Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Chart : Unemployment Rate & Wage Growth Unemployment Rate (%, Inv'rtd, Adv. Qtr, LHS) ECI Private Wages (%y/y, RHS) Chart : Core Consumer Prices (%m Annualised) Chart : Fed Funds Rate Projections (%).. Fed Funds Futures.. WSJ Consensus.. Fed's Own Projections... Capital Economics.. CPI.. PCE End End End Sources Thomson Datastream, Capital Economics, Fed, WSJ US Housing Market Analyst

6 Valuations & Affordability Impact of higher interest rates will be offset by rising incomes The sharp rise in -year Treasury yields in recent months, to a peak of.% at the beginning of June, has pushed -year fixed mortgage rates up to their highest level in nine months. (See Chart.) However, at around.%, rates are still very low by historic standards and lower even than the more recent taper tantrum highs of mid- when they reached a peak of.%. But with the Fed likely to begin tightening policy in September, rates will continue to rise from here. Recent market developments mean we now expect Treasury yields and mortgage rates to rise slightly faster over the next two years than we previously anticipated. Indeed, based on our long-held view that rising wage inflation will eventually force the Fed to raise rates more aggressively than is widely anticipated, we are forecasting -year yields to reach.% by the end of this year and.% by end-. This implies that -year mortgage rates will rise to around.% and.% respectively over this horizon. (See Chart.) Rising mortgage interest rates haven t yet done much to dent affordability. According to the NAR, a median-income family now has % of the income required to qualify for a mortgage on an average priced home. (See Chart.) This has fallen only slightly from % at the start of the year, and is still well above the long-run average of %. What s more, our view that incomes will continue to grow at a healthy pace suggests that affordability will still be very favourable by past standards even as interest rates begin to rise. From its current level of around %, the average monthly mortgage payment, expressed as a share of income, should rise to no higher than % by the end of next year. (See Chart.) This would be comfortably below the long-run average of %. Meanwhile, most of the evidence suggests that housing is moving closer to fair value. In fact, when compared to rents, housing looks increasingly overvalued. (See Chart.) But other measures paint a more sanguine picture. For example, compared to a simple long-run trend, housing is.% undervalued. (See Chart.) Although this has deteriorated from around % at the beginning of last year, it certainly doesn t suggest the housing recovery is about to grind to a halt. What s more, housing is still more than % undervalued compare to disposable income per capita. (See Chart.) And housing also looks relatively cheap compared to commercial property prices, which have now surpassed their pre-recession peak. (See Chart.) On balance, the high levels of undervaluation which facilitated rapid price gains in recent years have clearly been eroded. But the weight of evidence suggests that housing is no worse than fair value. Combined with affordability which is still very good, this will support the housing recovery for some time yet. US Housing Market Analyst

7 Valuations & Affordability Charts Chart : -Year Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates (%) Chart : -Year Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates (%). -Year Treasury Yield (LHS). -Year Treasury Yield. -Year Fixed Mortgage Rate -Year Fixed Mortgage Rate, MBA (RHS). Forecasts Chart : NAR Mortgage Affordability Index Housing more affordable Average - Seasonally adjusted by Capital Economics Chart : Mortgage Payment as % of Median Income Forecast Long-Run Average Chart : Case-Shiller House Prices to Rents (% Over/Undervalued Relative to - Average) Owner-Occupiers Imputed Rent CPI Rents Chart : Real Case-Shiller House Prices (Index, =) Real Case-Shiller House Prices (=) Trend Chart : Case-Shiller House Prices to Disposable Income per Capita (% Over/Undervalued Relative to - Average) Chart : Real Case-Shiller House Prices & Real Aggregate Commercial Property Prices (Index, =) Real Aggregate Commercial Property Prices Real Case-Shiller House Prices Sources Thomson Datastream, NAR, Green Street, CE US Housing Market Analyst

8 Activity Upturn in mortgage demand to support growth in sales A gradual rise in mortgage interest rates over the next couple of years won t prevent a further strengthening in housing activity. (See Chart.) Indeed, we expect the improving labour market and looser credit conditions to outweigh any adverse impact from rising rates, supporting steady growth in home sales both this year and next. Much of our optimism over the outlook for sales is due to the recent evidence of a longoverdue upturn in mortgage market activity. Admittedly, the MBA s measure of mortgage applications for refinancing has fallen fairly sharply and will almost certainly decline further as interest rates rise. (See Chart.) But a recent sharp improvement in home purchase mortgage applications, which are a better indicator of underlying demand, has so far proved resilient to rising interest rates. (See Chart.) Purchase applications had essentially moved sideways since, failing to follow the upward trend in home sales. Accordingly, the strong rise in this index, to a two-year high in April, was a particularly encouraging sign. We expect this upturn to continue. Firstly, most evidence suggests that credit conditions are gradually loosening. Admittedly, the average FICO credit score of successful mortgage applicants is still slightly higher than it was one year ago. (See Chart.) But the tightening in lending standards towards the end of last year seems now to be unwinding slowly. Indeed, the rate at which mortgage applications are being approved has risen significantly over the past year, from around % to %. (See Chart.) What s more, the share of home sales to mortgage-backed buyers has also been on an upward trend, rising from around % at the beginning of last year to more than % in May this year. (See Chart.) This is further evidence that buyers are having fewer difficulties in obtaining a mortgage. It is also an encouraging sign that the market is moving away from its recent high reliance on investors and cash buyers towards a more sustainable source of demand. The evidence suggests that this easing in credit conditions is already feeding though into stronger housing activity. The level of buyer traffic reported by realtors has surged since the start of the year and is close to a record high. (See Chart.) The index of seller traffic has also improved significantly. It was therefore little surprise that total home sales reached an eight-year high in May. We expect sales to continue growing strongly over the next couple of years, rising from.m in to as high as m in. This would be the highest level of sales in years. New home sales, which are still well below long-run norms, are likely to be the main driver of this increase. From, in, we expect them to rise to, by end-. Existing sales on the other hand are likely to rise more modestly, from.m in to around.m in. (See Chart.) US Housing Market Analyst

9 Activity Charts Chart : Home Sales per Capita & Real Mortgage Rates Total Home Sales Per People (Ann., LHS) - Real -Year Mortgage Rate (Inverted, RHS) Rates up, Sales down Forecasts - Chart : Mortgage Rates & Application for Refinancing Mortgage Applications for Refinancing (Index, LHS) -. Yr Mortgage Rate Less Yr Avg. (%, Inv., RHS) Mortgage rates down, refinancing up. Chart : Mortgage Applications & Total Home Sales Total Home Sales (Mn Ann., LHS) Mortgage Applications for Home Purchase (Index, RHS) Chart : Average FICO Scores of Successful Mortgage Applicants Jan- Aug- Mar- Oct- May- Dec- Chart : Closing Rate for Home Purchase Mortgage Applications (%) Nov- Nov- Nov- Nov- Chart : Share of Existing Home Sales to Mortgage-Backed Buyers (%) Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Chart : Buyer & Seller Traffic (Diffusion Index) Buyer Traffic Seller Traffic Strengthening Weakening Chart : New & Existing Home Sales Existing Home Sales Per People (LHS) New Home Sales Per People (RHS) Long-run average Forecasts Sources Thomson Datastream, Ellie Mae, NAR, CE US Housing Market Analyst

10 Supply Improving environment for sellers should help improve supply Supply conditions have been fairly tight by historic standards, but we expect the supply of both new and existing homes to improve over the coming years. Recent developments have been encouraging. After doing little more than grind slowly higher over the past few years, our measure of the number of homes being listed for sale each month recently jumped to an eight-year high. (See Chart.) That said, this upturn in new listings has largely been matched by an increase in the pace of sales. Indeed, total home sales have also recently reached an eight-year high. (See Chart.) As a result, at. in May, the months supply of unsold homes was little changed from levels which have been typical over the past couple of years, and which are fairly tight by historic standards. (See Chart.) Indeed, over the past years there has, on average, been almost months supply. Nonetheless, we believe that supply should improve over the next couple of years. Firstly, tight supply conditions will have increased sellers bargaining power. What s more, the continued decline in distressed sales means they are no longer acting as a material drag on prices. (See Chart.) As a result, the market is becoming increasingly attractive to those wishing to sell their home. The share of homeowners in negative equity has also continued to fall. In the first quarter of this year,.% of all mortgage holders were underwater. (See Chart.) This is lower than the.% share at the end of last year, and is significantly down from levels of more than % which prevailed only a couple of years ago. Combined with the renewed strength of employment growth in recent months, the fact that more households are now building up equity in their homes should mean that the willingness and ability of homeowners to list their homes for sale are increasing. That certainly seems to be the message from the survey data. The share of respondents to a Fannie Mae survey saying that now is a good time to sell a home has recently increased to its highest level in the survey s five year history. (See Chart.) These improving attitudes towards the market should contribute to a gradual loosening in the supply of existing homes in the months ahead. The general improvement in market conditions, not least the clear upward trend in new home sales, should also encourage a steady increase in homebuilding. Housing completions and therefore the supply of new homes for sale have been unusually low in recent years. (See Chart.) Our forecasts for stronger growth in the homebuilding sector over the next couple of years are consistent with a marked improvement in the supply of new homes. Indeed, compared to existing homes, the supply of new homes is much further below the long-run average and therefore has the most scope to increase. (See Chart.) Accordingly, the normalisation in supply that we expect over the next couple of years will mainly be driven by the new homes sector. US Housing Market Analyst

11 Supply Charts Chart : Number of Homes Coming Onto the Market Homes coming onto the market (mn, annualised) Three-Month Average Chart : Total Home Sales & Number of Homes Listed (Millions, Annualised) Home Sales Homes Put Up for Sale (m Average) Chart : Months Supply of Unsold Homes Months' Supply of Unsold Homes - Average Chart : Distressed Sales as a % of Existing Sales Chart : Mortgaged Homes With Negative Equity (% of Total) Chart : Consumers Attitudes to Housing Market (% Balance) Good Time to Buy Good Time to Sell Jun- Jun- Jun- Jun- Jun- Jun- Chart : Housing Completions & New Homes for Sale (s) Single-Family Completions (Ann., Adv. Yrs., LHS) New Homes For Sale (RHS) Chart : New & Existing Homes for Sale (Millions) Existing Homes For Sale (LHS). New Homes For Sale (RHS) Forecasts. - averages..... Sources Thomson Datastream, CoreLogic, NAR, Fannie Mae, CE US Housing Market Analyst

12 House Prices Still scope for price growth to accelerate this year The CoreLogic measure of price growth has accelerated markedly since the start of the year. (See Chart.) Four successive monthly gains above.% have contributed to the annual rate of house price inflation rising from.% at the end of to a -month high of.% in April this year. The conditions for an upturn in price growth certainly seem to be in place. Evidence of a second-quarter rebound in the wider economy is now clear, with consumer spending showing a particularly strong recovery. What s more, the falling share of distressed sales means they are no longer a material drag on prices. Finally, supply conditions are fairly tight by historic standards. Indeed, the subdued months supply of unsold homes is consistent with price growth accelerating into double digits later this year. (See Chart.) Yet the rapid acceleration in price growth shown by the CoreLogic measure has not been reflected in the other main indices of house prices. In fact, other measures in particular the Case-Shiller index have slowed in the first few months of this year. (See Chart.) The CoreLogic index increasingly appears to be the odd one out. Such a sharp upturn also looks odd when compared to the expectations of market participants. In recent months, consumers and realtors expectations of price growth over the next months have risen slightly, but are still as low as.% and.% respectively. (See Chart.) Of course, expectations are far from the best guide to actual price trends, but it s hard to imagine a rapid acceleration in price growth when expectations are so muted. On balance, there is nothing yet to change our view that price growth will accelerate more gradually to around.% this year. (See Chart.) Further ahead, as housing moves closer to fair value and the Fed begins to tighten policy, price growth will slow once more, settling at close to % over the next couple of years. For this year at least, our forecasts are well above the consensus. Most analysts expect price growth of only around.% this year. (See Chart.) But our forecasts seem consistent with the recent rise in demand, along with our view that a long-overdue upturn in mortgage lending will support continued strong growth in sales over the rest of the year. (See Chart.) They also sit well with our relatively upbeat views on the wider economy, and in particular the prospect of continued steady growth in employment and incomes over the next couple of years. It is worth noting that we expect existing homes to be the key driver of price growth over the coming years. The new build price premium has fallen recently, but had previously been close to a record high. (See Chart.) Our view that homebuilding, and thus the supply of new homes, will increase strongly means we expect new home price growth to slow by more than the growth of existing home prices over the next couple of years. US Housing Market Analyst

13 House Price Charts Chart : CoreLogic House Prices Chart : House Prices & Months Supply of Unsold Stock %m/m (RHS) %m/m Ann. (LHS) Months' Supply of Homes (Inverted, Adv. m, LHS) CoreLogic House Prices (%y/y, RHS) Inventory down, prices up Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Chart : House Prices (%-month Annualised) Chart : Consumers & Realtors Expected Increase in House Prices Over the Next Months (%) Case-Shiller National FHFA CoreLogic Realtors' Expectations Consumers' Expectations Jun- Feb- Oct- Jun- Feb- Oct- Jun- Feb- Chart : Case-Shiller House Prices F'cast Chart : Price Growth Projections (%y/y) Consensus Capital Economics %q/q (LHS) %y/y (RHS) Chart : Case-Shiller House Prices & Home Sales (%y/y) Chart : New-Build Price Premium (m Avg., %) Total Home Sales (Adv. m, LHS) Forecast Case-Shiller House Prices (RHS) Long-run average Sources Thomson Datastream, CoreLogic, Fannie Mae, NAR, CE US Housing Market Analyst

14 Alternative House Price Scenarios Market could cool if credit conditions fail to loosen further Our central forecast assumes that house prices However, there are also upside risks to our will continue to be boosted by the strength of central forecasts. For example, if the Fed were the wider economy and labour market, low to catch markets unaware by unexpectedly mortgage rates and the recent pick-up in home shifting to a more hawkish stance, bond yields sales. What s more, we expect that the recent could rise sharply. Concerned that disruption tightening in supply conditions could cause a to the financial markets could spill over into temporary acceleration in price growth to the wider economy, the Fed may then delay between % and % over the coming months. any further interest rate rises. However, it s possible that price growth may This would obviously mean mortgage rates end up slightly weaker than we currently staying lower for longer. Our upside scenario anticipate. For example, one potential risk to for price growth therefore assumes that -year our forecast is that the gradual loosening in mortgage interest rates are just.% by the credit conditions we expect fails to materialise. end of next year, rather than the.% This could happen if the financial markets and assumed in our central forecast. (See Chart.) mortgage lenders become more nervous about the prospect of Fed tightening. This could allow the unemployment rate to fall as low as.% by end-, rather than If credit conditions were to stop loosening, this settling at around.% as we currently expect. could prove a fresh drag on the mortgage (See Chart.) In turn, the upward pressure on market which has, until recently, been one of wages this would cause could lead incomes to the weakest aspects of the housing recovery. rise at an annual rate around % point (ppt) Indeed, the tentative upturn in mortgage higher than we currently assume. lending we have seen in recent weeks could grind to a halt, or even reverse. (See Chart.) According to our House Price Inflation Ready Reckoner, set out in Table on page, the And with investors and cash buyers continuing combined effects of mortgage rates and an to pull back, this could cause home sales, unemployment rate both. ppts lower than which recently reached an eight-year high, to in our central forecast, as well as income flatten off. (See Chart.) growth that is ppt higher, could boost house prices by around.%-% this year, and as Such a turn of events would be likely to lead to much as % next year. Accordingly, in our a further slowdown in price growth from here. upside scenario, house prices are more than Accordingly, price growth in our downside % higher than in our central forecast by the scenario falls to only % this year, before end of. (See Chart.) dropping further to around % in and. Our alternative price scenarios are summarised in Chart. US Housing Market Analyst

15 Alternative House Price Scenario Charts Chart : Mortgage Applications & Home Sales Total Home Sales (Mn Ann., LHS) Mortgage Applications for Home Purchase (Index, RHS) Chart : Total Home Sales (%y/y) Total Home Sales Forecast Downside Scenario Chart : -Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rates (%) Chart : Unemployment Rate (%) Projections Capital Economics Forecast Upside Scenario Projections Capital Economics Forecast Upside Scenario Chart : Case-Shilller National House Prices (Q = ) Projections Chart : Case-Shiller House Prices (%y/y) Upside Scenario Capital Economics Forecast Downside Scenario Downside Scenario Central Scenario Upside Scenario Table : Capital Economics House Price Inflation Ready-Reckoner (% Effect on Annual House Price Inflation In Each Year) Year Year Year Year Year.% rise in mortgage rates % rise in the unemployment rate % rise in disposable incomes......% rise in the population......% rise in the housing stock Effects are the results of simulation tests applied to an econometric model of house prices. Sources Thomson Datastream, Capital Economics US Housing Market Analyst

16 Homebuilding Homebuilding recovery will continue to strengthen The weight of evidence suggests that homebuilding activity will strengthen from here. After making only gradual progress over the past couple of years, housing starts recently recovered from the weather-related collapse in the first quarter to reach a seven-year high. (See Chart.) suggests that builders are having fewer difficulties attracting new workers. In any case, the number of construction workers relative to the level of homebuilding is still elevated by historic standards. (See Chart.) This implies that builders already have the necessary workforce in place to increase output. Consistent with this, builders confidence in the housing recovery appears to be growing. Admittedly, the % m/m surge in building permits in May largely reflected developers in New York City rushing through applications before the expiry of a tax break in early June. (See Chart.) As a result, it is likely to be partly reversed over the summer. Nonetheless, the upward trend in both housing starts and building permits is clear. The NAHB index of homebuilder confidence reached a nine-month high of in June. And that would normally be consistent with much stronger homebuilding activity. (See Chart.) Both the current and expected sales subindices reached nine-year highs. It therefore seems clear that builders aren t overly concerned about the prospect of higher interest rates in the near future choking off the housing recovery. Meanwhile, the land, labour and materials shortages which had constrained many homebuilders in recent years have continued to ease. The brief spike in land price inflation last year proved short lived. (See Chart.) Combined with the boosts to demand for new homes stemming from an improving labour market and looser credit conditions, there is every reason to expect stronger growth in homebuilding over the next two years. Higher rental demand, and therefore an upturn in rental growth, could lead to faster growth in multi-family starts over the rest of this year. (See Chart.) But further ahead, single family starts are likely to account for most of the growth in overall homebuilding. We expect total housing starts to surpass.m this year, and to reach their long-run average of around.m by end-. Although that would represent a sizeable increase of more than % from current levels, it would sit well with the strong growth in new home sales we expect. (See Chart.) It would also mean residential investment continuing to make a decent contribution to GDP growth. (See Chart.) Indeed, we expect it to add around.% points to annualised quarterly GDP growth over the next couple of years. What s more, the pace of employment growth in the residential construction sector has been outpacing that of the wider economy. This US Housing Market Analyst

17 Homebuilding Charts,,,,, Chart : Housing Starts (s, Annualised) Housing Starts -Month Average Chart : Housing Starts & Building Permits (s, Annualised) Building Permits (Advanced m) Housing Starts Chart : Housing Starts & NAHB Housing Index NAHB Housing Index (Adv. m, LHS) Housing Starts (s Ann., RHS) Chart : Land Prices (%y/y) Chart : Construction Workers per Housing Start Construction Employment (LHS) Residential Construction Employment (RHS) Chart : Housing Starts (s, Annualised) Single-Family Starts Forecasts Multi-Family Starts Chart : Housing Starts & New Home Sales (s) Housing Starts (LHS) New Home Sales (RHS) Forecasts Chart : Housing Starts & Residential Investment (%y/y) Housing Starts (Adv. Qtr.) Permanent Site Residential Investment Forecast Sources Thomson Datastream, Lincoln Institute, Capital Economics US Housing Market Analyst

18 Rental Market Rental value growth will accelerate Some measures show that rents have continued to grow at an annual pace of around.% in recent months. (See Chart.) The Zillow measure of rent per square foot has picked up since our last Analyst, suggesting that rental growth has risen above % for the first time since before the recession. But such an upturn is not yet evident in other widelyfollowed measures. So, is the Zillow measure getting ahead of itself, or is an upturn in rental value growth now underway? The NMHC apartment tightness index suggests that it might be. The index has picked up somewhat in the second quarter, but on the basis of past form is consistent with rental growth of only around %. (See Chart.) This suggests that rental growth will, if anything, slow in the months ahead. However, this runs contrary to the message from the rental vacancy rate reported by the Census Bureau. Although the vacancy rate increased slightly in Q, at.% it is still close to its lowest level since. (See Chart.) Tight supply conditions in the rental market have already contributed to a gradual rise in rental growth over the past couple of years, and the latest readings suggest that rents could soon begin to rise much more rapidly. There certainly seems to be scope for rental growth to accelerate from here. Low mortgage rates have made monthly rental and mortgage payments very similar in recent years. But the onset of Fed tightening, which we expect to begin in September, could increase the cost of mortgage payments by more than % over the next two years. As a result, even if the pace of rental growth were to average % over the next couple of years, as we expect, renting would still become relatively more affordable than buying a home. (See Chart.) Furthermore, the recent strength of employment and income growth is likely to continue supporting stronger rental demand. From June s rate of.%, we expect the unemployment rate to continue to fall, reaching as low as.% by end-. This would be consistent with a further acceleration in rental growth from here. (See Chart.) Accordingly, we are forecasting rental value growth to accelerate strongly from.% in to roughly % both this year and next, before easing slightly to around % in. (See Chart.) This would represent the strongest run of rental growth since the s. Combined with our forecasts for house prices, this suggests that rental yields will be roughly.% over the next few years. (See Chart.) Total returns are likely to exceed % this year, before dropping back to around % in and. With risk-free borrowing rates set to increase, housing is no longer as attractive an investment as it once was. However, although we are forecasting -year Treasury yields to rise from their current level of roughly.% to around.% by end-, rental yields will continue to look favourable by comparison. (See Chart.) US Housing Market Analyst

19 Rental Market Charts Chart : Rental Value Growth (%y/y) CPI Rent of Primary Residence Zillow $/Square Foot REIS Apartment Effective Rents (Multi-Family) Chart : CPI Rents & NMHC Apartment Market Tightness NMHC Apartment Market Tightness (Index, Adv. Qrts, LHS) Rents (%y/y, RHS) - Chart : CPI Rents & Rental Vacancy Rate Rental Vacancy Rate (%, Inverted, Adv. yr, LHS) CPI Rents (%y/y, RHS) - Chart : Ratio of Monthly Rental to Mortgage Payments. Rent more.. than mortgage... Rent less. than mortgage Forecast Chart : CPI Rents & Unemployment Rate Chart : Rental Value Growth (%) CPI Rents (%y/y, LHS) Unemployment Rate (%, Inverted, Adv. Mths, RHS) Forecast Lower unemployment Higher rental growth Forecast - - Chart : Rental Yields & Total Returns (%) Chart : Rental Yields & -Year Treasury Yields (%) Forecasts Forecasts Rental Yield (%) Rental Yield - - Total Return (% y/y) -Year Treasury Yield - - Sources Thomson Datastream, Zillow, NMHC, Capital Economics US Housing Market Analyst

20 State Outlook Short-term prospects brightest in Ohio; weakest in Tennessee We expect the national housing market to continue progressing well, with sales and homebuilding growing strongly and prices rising broadly in line with incomes in and beyond. However, the outlook differs somewhat by state. Our State Monitor table on pages and includes the latest economic and housing data at state level, and ranks the states according to their short-term housing prospects. On the basis of these rankings, housing prospects appear most promising in Ohio, Michigan and New Hampshire, and least promising in Maryland, Louisiana and Tennessee. Despite the continued slowdown in the national Case-Shiller house price index in recent months, short-term price pressures at regional level have generally proved more robust. (See Chart.) Indeed, price growth in Detroit, Michigan, has accelerated sharply, which supports the state s high position in our rankings. However, price growth in Cleveland, Ohio once again our top-ranked state appears to have slowed. Nonetheless, high levels of undervaluation suggest there is scope for much faster price growth in Ohio in the months ahead. (See Chart.) An undervalued housing market should also continue to support strong price growth in Michigan. Housing in these states will also benefit from their relatively strong economic performance. Ohio, Michigan and New Hampshire all appear in the top for states with income growth furthest above longrun average rates. (See Chart.) At other end of the scale, however, economic weakness is likely to continue to hold back housing markets in the likes of Louisiana and Tennessee. These states respectively have the fourth and seventh highest unemployment rates in the country. (See Chart.) The weakness of housing demand in these states is reflected in their vacancy rates, which are amongst the furthest above long-run average levels. (See Chart.) Although not one of our lowest ranked states, we have recently been concerned about housing in D.C. According to the FHFA index, annual price growth in the state was negative in the first quarter. (See Chart.) What s more, excessive levels of overvaluation and poor economic performance suggest that this underperformance is set to continue. Meanwhile, the collapse in drilling activity caused by the slump in oil prices has continued to hit mining employment in the Shale States of Texas and North Dakota. (See Chart.) Housing in these states has cooled somewhat since last year, when they were amongst the best performing regional markets. That said, these job losses have been relatively modest. Indeed, total employment in Texas was rising again in May. With oil prices having stabilised at around $ per barrel, and with the pace of drilling declines slowing as a result, Texas at least may have avoided a more serious downturn. (See Chart.) Nonetheless, this is still likely to be a modest drag on housing in the Shale States going forward. US Housing Market Analyst

21 State Outlook Charts Chart : Case-Shiller -City House Prices (%m/m Ann.) Dec- Apr- - - Chart : FHFA House Prices to Disposable Incomes Per Capita (% Over/Undervalued vs. - Average) most undervalued most overvalued Chart : Personal Income Growth Relative to - Average, Q (% points) furthest above average furthest below average Chart : Unemployment Rate, Q (%) States with lowest rate States with highest rate Chart : Vacancy Rates Relative to - Average, Q (% points). Rate below long-run average Rate above long-run average Chart : FHFA House Prices (%y/y) D.C. National Chart : Change in Mining & Logging Employment (s) Chart : Crude Oil Price & Drilling Rigs in Operation Texas North Dakota Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr WTI Oil Price ($pb, Adv. m, LHS) Total Rig Count (RHS) Sources Thomson Datastream, CoreLogic, FHFA, Cens. Bureau, BEA,CE US Housing Market Analyst

22 State Monitor Economic Backdrop Unemployment Rate Personal Income Ranking % Q Deviation from - Av. %y/y Q Deviation from - Av. National Ohio Michigan New Hampshire Kentucky Oregon Idaho Minnesota West Virginia Rhode Island Colorado Maine California Indiana.... Oklahoma Massachusetts New Mexico Florida Wisconsin Arkansas Nebraska New York Connecticut South Carolina.... Kansas Pennsylvania Iowa Hawaii Utah Vermont Texas Missouri Mississippi North Dakota Illinois Washington Montana Georgia District of Colombia Wyoming South Dakota North Carolina Alabama Alaska Arizona Virginia Delaware New Jersey Nevada Maryland Louisiana Tennessee has the most favourable economic conditions, has the least favourable. Takes into account the deviation of unemployment rate and income growth from - averages. US Housing Market Analyst

23 State Monitor (continued) House Prices (FHFA, s.a.) Market Tightness Market Change Valuation Homeowner Vacancy Rate Conditions Overall Market & Economic Conditions %q/q %y/y % Deviation from Q Q Q Q - Av. Ranking Ranking (Chge) National Ohio () Michigan (+) New Hampshire (+) Kentucky (+) Oregon (+) Idaho (-) Minnesota (+) West Virginia (+) Rhode Island (+) Colorado (-) Maine (+) California () Indiana (+) Oklahoma (-) Massachusetts (-) New Mexico (+) Florida (-) Wisconsin (+) Arkansas (+) Nebraska (+) New York (+) Connecticut (+) South Carolina (+) Kansas (+) Pennsylvania () Iowa (+) Hawaii (+) Utah (-) Vermont (-) Texas (-) Missouri () Mississippi (+) North Dakota (-) Illinois (-) Washington (-) Montana..... (-) Georgia (-) District of Colombia (-) Wyoming (+) South Dakota (-) North Carolina (-) Alabama (+) Alaska (-) Arizona (-) Virginia (+) Delaware (+) New Jersey (-) Nevada (-) Maryland (-) Louisiana (+) Tennessee (-) % under/overvalued against income per capita relative to - average. Average of economic and housing market rankings. A tight market has high demand and low supply. US Housing Market Analyst

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