Project information Assessing an IPCC assessment: An analysis of statements on projected regional impacts in the 2007 report

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1 Octber 2012 Assessing an IPCC Assessment Prject infrmatin Assessing an IPCC assessment: An analysis f statements n prjected reginal impacts in the 2007 reprt Authrs: Le Meyer/Arthur Petersen Cntact: Date General cmments n the prject Assessing an IPCC Assessment In January 2010, the Dutch Parliament asked Jacqueline Cramer, the then Dutch Minister f Envirnment, fr an investigatin int the implicatins f errrs reprted by the media in specific parts f the Furth Assessment Reprt f the IPCC (2007). Subsequently, the minister asked PBL in February 2010 t make an assessment f the reliability f the reginal chapters (9 t 16) f the IPCC Wrking Grup II cntributin t the Furth Assessment Reprt (the part n Impacts, Adaptatin and Vulnerability), and t assess the effects f any errrs n the summary cnclusins drawn by the IPCC. Frm the utset it was clear that PBL wuld nt be able t repeat the riginal IPCC Wrking Grup II assessment, given the sheer vlume f the scientific wrk reprted in the IPCC exercise. What we were able t d, hwever, was investigate the extent t which the IPCC in their summaries had presented existing scientific knwledge t the wrld f plicymakers, in a way that was supprted by the underlying texts and scientific references. What is mre, we als investigated what culd be learned frm ur findings s that infrmed chices culd be made in future assessments. Fr several mnths, a special PBL team wrked assiduusly n this prject. This des nt represent a typical PBL activity, but may be seen as a specific example f quality cntrl f scientific research carried ut by the institute. PBL scientists had cntributed t the Wrking Grup II reprt (and were als respnsible fr ne f the errrs in the reprt). Therefre, PBL was faced with the challenge f carrying ut this quality cntrl withut repeating the riginal wrk f Wrking Grup II, in a respectful way twards the IPCC, and at the same time dispelling suspicins f this being a PBL white-wash peratin. Infrmatin abut the prject itself Time frame f the prject February 2010 July 2010 Prject structure, sub-activities, and prject management A prject grup f 13 PBL researchers and a frmer PBL emplyee with experience in the IPCC (Dr Rb Swart, WUR) was frmed in February 2010, under the directin f Dr Le Meyer (prject leader) and Prfessr Arthur Petersen (deputy prject leader). The fllwing sub-prjects were executed: 1. Brief re-assessment f the literature n the melting f Himalayan glaciers; Pagina 1 van 8

2 Octber 2012 Assessing an IPCC assessment 2. Analysis f the eight selected IPCC AR4 WG II chapters (n the reginal impacts f climate change), including input frm public registratin website fr pssible errrs; and 3. Preparatin f parliamentary briefing n the IPCC prcess and the rle f the Netherlands in this intergvernmental rganisatin. A steering grup headed by PBL directr Prfessr Maarten Hajer was actively invlved in making the majr decisins. Besides the directr and the prject leaders Le Meyer and Arthur Petersen, this steering grup included PBL s head f the department f climate, air and energy (then Mr. Jp Oude Lhuis), the head f the ffice f cmmunicatin and management supprt (first Ms. Gerda de Lange, later Ms. Jacqueline Timmerhuis), and a researcher frm an unrelated PBL department with the rle f critical utsider (Dr Edwin Buitelaar). The IPCC authrs f the reginal chapters f the Wrking Grup II Reprt were invited t cmment n the draft findings, and in their cmmunicatin the prject grup and IPCC authrs went thrugh several detailed iteratins. In sme cases, PBL als cntacted the authrs f cited references. The draft f the reprt was reviewed by selected internal and external, natinal and internatinal experts. Mrever, this prject has been cnducted under the independent supervisin f the Ryal Netherlands Academy f Arts and Sciences (KNAW), at the request f the minister f Envirnment. The KNAW has reprted back t the minister cncluding at the end f the prject that the PBL had based its assessment n sund scientific principles. The Academy als bserved that the PBL s analysis had refined and added depth t the IPCC s reprt. Its wrk represented an imprvement n the riginal IPCC reprt. The PBL s findings als fund their way int the IPCC review cnducted in 2010 at the request f the United Natins. The last sentence refers t the review f the InterAcademy Cuncil f the IPCC prcesses and prcedures that was published in August Researchers invlved in the prject Besides the prject leaders, the fllwing PBL researchers were invlved in the executin f the prject: Dr Rb Alkemade, Mr. Michel Bakkenes, Mr. Gert Jan van den Brn, Dr Lex Buwman, Dr Hans van Grinsven, Dr Henk Hilderink, Dr Peter Janssen, Mr. Willem Ligtvet, Mr. Tn Manders, Dr Jelle van Minnen, Dr Hans Visser, Ms. Marijke Vnk, Ms. Martine de Vs. Frm Wageningen University and Research centre, Dr Rb Swart was invlved. The fllwing peple acted as reviewers: PBL internal (besides steering grup): Mr. Tm Kram, Dr Js Olivier, Dr Ott Raspe, Dr Detlef van Vuuren and Dr Anet Wetering (internal); Natinal (besides KNAW): Prfessr Frans Berkhut (VU University Amsterdam), Dr Jeren van der Sluijs (Utrecht University), Prfessr Rik Leemans (Wageningen University), and Dr Hein Haak (Ryal Netherlands Meterlgical Institute, KNMI); Internatinal (besides IPCC): Prfessr Mike Hulme (University f East Anglia) and Prfessr Steve Rayner (University f Oxfrd). KNAW supervisry cmmittee: Prfessr Rudi Rabbinge, chair ( Wageningen University & Research Centre), Prfessr J. Buma ( Wageningen University & Pagina 2 van 8

3 Octber 2012 Assessing an IPCC assessment Research Centre), Prfessr R.P. Griessen (Free University Amsterdam), Prfessr Peter Nijkamp (Free University Amsterdam),Prfessr Henry Hghiemstra (University f Amsterdam), and Secretary Dr. Wim de Haas, head f the Advisry and Fresight Department, Academy Bureau. Researchers experience with wrking at the science-plicy interface Of the 17 researchers invlved (including prject leaders) abut half had cnsiderable experience in prviding scientific advise t plicymakers. The ther half had cnsiderable research experience in a science-plicy interface rganisatin. In the prject leadership, much experience was present with the IPCC. Le Meyer had been invlved with the IPCC since the mid-1990s when he still wrked at the Ministry f the Envirnment (VROM) as a gvernment representative in the IPCC Bureau befre he jined PBL as Head f the IPCC WG III Technical Supprt Unit between In his career he has built up experience in the science-plicy interface as an advisr t the Ministry f Ecnmic Affairs n Energy between 1984 and 1992 and later as funder f plicy-relevant climate research and science advisr at the Ministry f Envirnment between 1992 and He has led a PBL assessment prject News in climate science in the lead-up t the Cpenhagen summit in 2009 n request f the Minister f Envirnment. Arthur Petersen had been invlved in plenary sessins f the IPCC since 2001, had been respnsible fr PBL s methdlgy f science-plicy interface wrk as directr f the methdlgy and mdelling prgramme since 2003 and had written a (2 nd ) dissertatin n (dealing with cmputer-simulatin uncertainty at) the science-plicy interface in Resurces (mney, facilities) In ttal 3,737 hurs (3 fte year) were spent (amunting t abut 400,000 eur in persnnel csts). In additin, a material budget f abut 40,000 eur was used. Pssible cllabratins with ther research institutes The assessment was dne under sle respnsibility f PBL, but researchers frm ther institutes were invlved (e.g. KNMI, WUR, see abve under researchers invlved in the prject). Methd(s) f integrating knwledge frm different surces The whle prject was abut hw t best integrate knwledge frm different surces. It has built upn the many years f experience available at PBL in assessing envirnmental infrmatin in a way that is bth scientifically rbust and relevant t plicy makers. The IPCC is a prime example f hw this can be dne and in the prject, PBL has aimed t make sme criteria f assessment explicit (see the reprt). The prject implemented assessing the scientific quality f an assessment as an evaluatin n a meta-level. That means the slidity f underpinning Pagina 3 van 8

4 Octber 2012 Assessing an IPCC assessment evidence f cnclusins in the IPCC reprt has been checked. A classificatin system fr the degree f underpinning by scientific evidence was set up and used fr evaluatin f the cnclusins in the wrking grup II reprt. Which mdels were used (and why)? There were n specific mdels used, but a methd fr meta-evaluatin f scientific cnclusins. Which methdlgical difficulties were encuntered? Methdlgically, there were sme exciting discussins n what level f transparency can be maximally expected frm IPCC assessments (and what is the nature f expert judgment ) and n making a fundamental distinctin between errrs and shrtcmings. Subsequently, we had intensive discussins n what culd be cnsidered as an errr r just as an insufficiently funded cnclusin (i.e., a shrtcming). What were the main research findings? Overall the IPCC summary cnclusins f the Furth Assessment Reprt f 2007 n prjected reginal climate-change impacts were cnsidered well funded and nne were fund t cntain any significant errrs. The Wrking Grup II cntributin t the Furth Assessment Reprt shws ample bservatinal evidence f reginal climate-change impacts, which have been prjected t pse substantial risks t mst parts f the wrld, under increasing temperatures. Hwever, in sme instances the fundatins fr the summary statements are nt that slid and shuld at the least have been made mre transparent. While acknwledging the essential rle f expert judgment in scientific assessments, the PBL recmmends imprving the transparency f these judgments in future IPCC reprts. In additin, the investigated summary cnclusins tend t single ut the mst imprtant negative impacts f climate change. Althugh this apprach was implicitly agreed t by the IPCC gvernments fr the Furth Assessment Reprt, the PBL recmmends that the full spectrum f reginal impacts is summarised fr the Fifth Assessment Reprt, including psitive impacts and the uncertainties. The PBL believes that the IPCC shuld invest mre in quality cntrl in rder t prevent mistakes and shrtcmings, t the extent pssible. What were the cnclusins frm the prject evaluatin? Mst members f the prject team were quite happy with the end result and the public receptin f the duble message (n, we did nt find errrs which undermine the main cnclusins; yes, we have sme critical cmments and recmmendatins fr imprvement f the IPCC assessment prcess). Nbdy had ever dne a prject like this assessing an IPCC assessment, under severe time cnstraints and withut a ready-t-use methdlgy. S it was a lt learning by ding. This meant that nt all wrk that was dne ultimately fed int the final reprt; s with hindsight the prject culd perhaps have been run a bit mre efficiently. Furthermre, the editrs (Le Meyer and Arthur Petersen) put much effrt in editing texts that had been prduced by prject Pagina 4 van 8

5 Octber 2012 Assessing an IPCC assessment team members and they had t make sme tugh calls n the categrisatin f errrs and/r critical cmments, which were nt always shared by the prject team members (in cases, fr instance, where a prject team member fund that a cmment shuld be made and the editrs were nt fully cnvinced f the evidence fr that). Sme prject team members thught that PBL had been t nice fr the IPCC, while mst thught that PBL had been fair. But all prject team members recgnised that the prject was a test case fr the PBL and valued the rigrus way the prject was managed. A cmplicatin in this prject was that the PBL directr wanted t have the reprt simultaneusly in Dutch and English, which was an rganisatinal challenge t get this dne prperly within the deadlines. The invlvement f and cnstructive cmmunicatin with the IPCC authrs and fficials was fund t be difficult. Nt everybdy within IPCC appreciated this exercise and tk a lng time and a lt f effrt t get wrking in the end. Infrmatin that is relevant fr evaluating the scietal quality f the research Mtivatin fr the activity The then Minister fr the Envirnment, Jacqueline Cramer, cmmissined PBL t analyse the implicatins f errrs fund in the Furth Assessment Reprt f the IPCC, and check the reliability f the cntributin by Wrking Grup II t this reprt. Parliament had asked the Minister t investigate the implicatins f errrs fund in the reprt, which had been publicised in the media. Parliament discussed the IPCC reprt n January 28 th Target audiences, interested parties, client(s) and knwledge demand by the client(s) Primarily, the then Minister f Envirnment. In general, plicymakers, pliticians, the general public, and scientists; bth natinal and internatinal. In particular, recmmendatins were meant fr plicymakers, fficials and scientists invlved in the IPCC. T what extent and fr which purpse has interactin with the client and target audiences taken place? The interactins with the target audiences has been kept t a minimum during the prject, in rder t avid any leakage befre PBL had finalised its judgments and framing f the cnclusins. There have been sme cntacts with high-ranking civil servants at the ministry f Envirnment n the exact timing f the publicatin. There were iterative interactins with IPCC authrs regarding the prject s findings, which were necessary t reach a better understanding f the reasning behind expert judgments. The PBL did launch a public website that wuld be available fr the curse f ne mnth, in rder t give all experts in the Netherlands the pprtunity t cntribute t PBL s investigatin. PBL asked fr submissins f pssible errrs fund in reginal chapters f the Wrking Grup II Reprt. By the end f that mnth, the PBL had registered 40 submissins; hwever, mst f them were Pagina 5 van 8

6 Octber 2012 Assessing an IPCC assessment abut issues related t the Wrking Grup I Reprt. Tw submissins qualified t be addressed in the reprt. All submissins and PBL s respnses have been published n the PBL website at the mment f the release f the reprt. The varius prducts f the prject; their availability (e.g. frm the website) and the language f publicatin(s); the number f hard cpies f publicatins; (pssibly:) ppularising publicatins t present research findings t a wider audience The reprt was available in bth Dutch and English n the date f publicatin (July 5 th 2010) frm the website. Abut 300 hard cpies were printed f the Dutch editin and abut 200 hard cpies were printed f the English editin. The reprt was presented t bth natinal and internatinal press. Amng the internatinal media, The Ecnmist and Nature had received a cpy under embarg a few days befre the release. Hw research findings and cnclusins were cmmunicated t the client and whether r nt recmmendatins t plicymakers and ther target audiences were made The reprt was presented t the Minister and a press cnference was rganised t present the main cnclusins f the assessment. The reprt included recmmendatins fr imprvement f the IPCC assessment prcess. PBL was als invited t a hearing n the IPCC held by the parliament during the prject. References t newspaper articles, plicy dcuments, parliamentary discussins, interviews, public discussins, blgs and website references, prviding an impressin f hw prducts were valued by clients, target audience(s) and ther stakehlders ( impact mnitring data ); All majr newspapers and TV statins in the Netherlands, but als many internatinally (including The Ecnmist, The Guardian, BBC, Time, The New Yrk Times,Le Mnde, The Wall Street Jurnal) featured the reprt. In the general scietal dmain, the reprt was referenced 149 times (103 unique references, that is, frm different websites). The InterAcademy Cuncil made 5 references t the study in their Review f Prcesses and Prcedures f the IPCC (August 2010). Althugh the study started with dubts by sme Members f Parliament abut a sufficiently independent psitin f PBL t be able t perfrm the study, the results have nt been criticised in parliamentary debates, als nt by these Members f Parliament. Pssible fllw-up activities that emerged as a result f this prject Fr the IPCC: The findings and recmmendatins f the PBL reprt have been used as an input fr the review by the InterAcademy Cuncil, that was available by late August 2010, which fcused n prcedural and prcess issues f the IPCC. A number f cnclusins and recmmendatins by PBL cncern Pagina 6 van 8

7 Octber 2012 Assessing an IPCC assessment the set-up f the prcedures and prcesses f the IPCC. IPCC has adpted mst recmmendatins f the InterAcademy Cuncil. Fr the PBL: The prblems fund in IPCC reprts culd als be fund in PBL reprts. Therefre, PBL has a Chief Scientist fr 0.4 fte since January 1 st 2011, Arthur Petersen, whse special assignment it is t see whether the system f prcedures and standards that have been wrked ut fr quality cntrl wrks, that is, whether the nrms are adhered t and/r need t be changed. He als facilitates internal and external discussins n cntentius scientific issues and suppsed biases twards particular scientific views. He acts as senir advisr t the Directrs, with access t bth the Management Team and the Directrs Team. Arthur Petersen is Deputy Head f the Department f Infrmatin, Data and Methdlgy, which makes it pssible t directly enlist staff fr assistance in Chief Scientist tasks. One f the prjects in which methdlgical fllw-up is taking place is a multi-year strategic research prject titled Open Assessment Methdgy. Infrmatin that is relevant fr evaluating the scientific quality f the research With regard t the publicatin(s) abut this prject Which publicatin(s) have been prduced? The prject itself delivered an evaluatin reprt in Dutch and English n July 5 th English title: Assessing an IPCC assessment: An analysis f statements n prjected reginal impacts in the 2007 reprt Dutch title: Evaluatie van een IPCC-klimaatrapprt: Een analyse van cnclusies ver de mgelijke reginale gevlgen van klimaatverandering Which publicatin(s) are/is peer reviewed, which are/is nt? The prduct itself underwent peer review, bth by the IPCC authrs scrutinised and by external peers (see under Researchers invlved in the prject ). In the PBL s strategic research prject Open Assessment Methdlgy a peer-reviewed jurnal publicatin was prepared abut the methdlgy f the prject. Reference: Bart Strengers, Le Meyer, Arthur Petersen, Maarten Hajer, Detlef van Vuuren, and Peter Janssen, Opening up scientific assessments fr plicy: The imprtance f transparency in expert judgements, Science and Public Plicy, in press. Hw many references t these publicatins have been made in scientific literature? The reprt itself was referenced abut 30 times in schlarly publicatins. The methdlgical publicatin is still in press. Which presentatins f the research findings were held fr a scientific audience, fr example at cnferences? Pagina 7 van 8

8 Octber 2012 Assessing an IPCC assessment Maarten Hajer (directr f PBL), Arthur Petersen and Le Meyer have integrated the research findings in numerus presentatins fr scientific audiences. Is the publicatin the result f cllabratin with ther research institutes? If s, what is the scientific ranking f these institutes? N ther scientific institutes have really cntributed t the assessment, but they have been invlved in quality cntrl and they have been asked t deliver scientific evidence in sme cases. Hw des the publicatin deal with methdlgical questins and uncertainties? Methlgical questins are dealt with in the chapter n methdlgy in the reprt. First f all, PBL researchers dealt with the questin what errrs were fund in the reprt and whether these errrs wuld affect the cntent f the IPCC s key statements n reginal climate-change impacts, and then, whether these key statements wuld meet seven quality criteria frmulated by the PBL. Apart frm a typlgy f errrs, that culd be crrected either in an erratum r thrugh reassessment, PBL distinguished between seven types f qualificatins r cmments that wuld signify the quality f a statement. The typlgy f errrs and qualificatins ( cmments ) was reached thrugh an inductive prcess the results frm which are utlined in the crrespnding sectin f the reprt. A distinctin was made between majr and minr errrs r cmments. Issues were labelled t be majr when we judged them t have a significant quantitative impact n statements pertaining t fd, water, ecsystems, castal areas, and health. With regard t individual researchers, what is: Their psitin within research netwrks (pssible university affiliatins) Their scientific backgrund (Ph.D. r ther title) and membership f scientific grups, advisry cmmittees, etc. The reprt s main editrs, Dr Le Meyer and Prfessr Arthur Petersen, bth hld PhDs. Le Meyer has experience in scientific assessment; he was energy and climate science advisr t and in Dutch ministries, has run IPCC WG III s Technical Supprt Unit, published a PBL assessment News in climate science and explring bundaries in the run-up t the UNFCCC Cpenhagen Cnference, and is currently the head f the Techical Supprt Unit f the Synthesis Reprt f the Fifth Assessment f the IPCC. Arthur Petersen has been a Visiting Prfessr at the Lndn Schl f Ecnmics and Plitical and a Research Affiliate at the Massachusetts Institute f Technlgy since In January 2011, he became PBL s Chief Scientist. In April 2011, he als became Special Prfessr f Science and Envirnmental Public Plicy at the VU University Amsterdam. Their Hirsch index scre: Hirsch indexes (SCOPUS and ISI): Le Meyer: 0; Arthur Petersen: 9 Pagina 8 van 8

9 Octber 2012 Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta Prject infrmatin Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta Authr: Willem Ligtvet Cntact: Date Infrmatin abut the prject itself General remarks abut the prject In 2008 the PBL Netherlands Envirnmental Assessment Agency was asked by the Ministry f Public Husing, Spatial Planning and the Envirnment (VROM) t investigate ptins fr climate-prfing spatial develpment in the Netherlands. The request f VROM was t execute the study in cllabratin with the research prgrammes Climate changes spatial planning and Knwledge fr Climate, bth funded by the Dutch gvernment. In September 2009 the 2 nd Delta cmmittee published its advice n lng-term adaptatin challenges fr the Netherlands (Delta cmmittee 2009) and fllwing this advice in 2010 the Dutch Delta Prgramme was established. The Delta Prgramme is led by the Delta cmmissiner and he is respnsible fr develping a lng term strategy n fld prtectin, water supplies and climate prfing (re)develpment f urban areas (see fr further infrmatin Appendix 1). In 2010, after electins a new gvernment was established with new ministries. The Ministry f Public Husing, Spatial Planning and the Envirnment was discntinued, and a new Ministry f Infrastructure and the Envirnment was established, hsting the new Delta Prgramme as well. After these changes, in the perid the client f the PBL prject remained unclear fr a lng time since the riginal client was discntinued and the Delta Prgramme was in the phase f rganising itself, starting up its wn research prcess and explring future challenges invlving the varius departments, prvinces, water bards, municipalities and NGOs. The PBL study, already fcusing n slutins, i.e. strategic ptins fr climate prfing the Netherlands with respect t fld risks, fresh water supplies, nature and urban develpment, was seen as a cmpeting research prcess rather than a ptentially supprtive ne. This uncmfrtable situatin hampered the prject executin and was a burden in the cmmunicatin between PBL, Ministry and Delta Prgramme. Only by June 2011 a slutin was fund and it was decided that the PBL study presenting strategic ptins wuld be published at the same time as the publicatin f the Delta Prgramme 2012 in September The strategic ptins f PBL thus culd prvide a start fr further discussins in the Deltaprgramme n the develpment f an adaptive strategy fr the Netherlands. The interface challenges f this PBL prject thus encmpassed: - a plicy challenge: t keep an pen cmmunicatin line with the Delta Prgramme, rganise an interactin prcess in rder t exchange infrmatin and ideas, repsitin the prject in the Delta Prgramme prcess and create fr bth parties an interesting cntent and timing f publicatin f the PBL Pagina 1 van 17

10 Octber 2012 Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta reprt; - a scientific challenge: t keep the researchers and institutes in the varius supprting research lines invlved, mtivated and fcused n the required utcme and eventually integrate the research results int ne reprt. 1. Intrductin Outline f the aims and purpses f the prject: In 2008 the PBL Netherlands Envirnmental Assessment Agency was asked by the Ministry f Infrastructure and the Envirnment t investigate ptins fr climate-prfing spatial develpment in the Netherlands. The prject was split up int tw phases. In the first phase the main challenges fr adapting t climate change were identified, and the types f plicies needed t tackle these challenges were indicated (publicatins 2009). Based n the results f the first phase , strategic ptins fr climate-prfing the Netherlands were further elabrated in the secnd phase (publicatins 2011, 2012). Time frame f the prject September 2008 September 2011 Prject structure, sub-activities, and prject management Tw supervisrs f management team (Heads f sectr WLV G. de Hllander and ROL R. van der Wuden) Prject leader W. Ligtvet/ N. Pieterse + deputy prject leader M. Vnk. PBL prject team f 8 persns, encmpassing the mst relevant dmains: - J.G. van Minnen - Climate change - G.J. van den Brn - Agriculture - J. Knp - Water Fld risks, water availability, dealing with uncertainties - L. van Bree - Health - M. Vnk - Nature - N. Pieterse - Urban develpment - L. Pls Spatial develpment and design - J. Tennekes Gvernance - A. Sedee (KvK) - Interfacing Research prgrams KvK (Knwledge fr Climate) and RvK (Climate changes Spatial Planning) Prject management - Tw weekly prject meetings - Regular wrkshps with Management Team - Scientific Wrkshp Nvember 2010 Frequent Knwledge exchange with cntributing institutes Interfacing with ministries and the Delta prgramme thrugh wrkshps Sub-activities Backgrund studies were executed n: Fld risks and water supplies: Deltares Agriculture and nature: WUR/Alterra within KvK/RvK cvenant Urban develpment Deltares/UNESCO-IHE within KvK/RvK cvenant Gvernance and legislative challenges WUR/UU within KvK/RvK cvenant Update f Climate Change Impacts in the Netherlands Pagina 2 van 17

11 Octber 2012 Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta Backgrund study n fld risks and water supplies was financed by PBL; the ther studies were c-financed by the research prgrammes Climate Changes Spatial planning (RvK) and Knwledge fr Climate (KvK). Members f the PBL prject team were respnsible fr the interfacing between PBL and the research institutes wrking n the varius tpics: J. Knp & R. Franken: Fld risks and water supplies: Deltares G.J vd Brn: Agriculture and nature: WUR/Alterra within KvK/RvK cnvenant N. Pieterse & L. van Bree: Urban develpment Deltares/UNESCO- IHE within KvK/RvK cvenant L. van Bree: Health Utrecht University, Maastricht University J. Tennekes: Gvernance and legislative challenges WUR/UU within KvK/RvK cvenant J. van Minnen: Update f Climate change Impacts in the Netherlands Researchers invlved in the prject PBL: MSc. W. Ligtvet, PhD. N. Pieterse, MSc. M. Vnk, MSc. G.J vd. Brn, MSc. J. Knp, PhD. L. van Bree, MSc. J. Tennekes, MSc L. Pls, PhD. J. van Minnen, MSc. F. Kragt, MSc. M. Reudink, MSc. A. Ruijs, MSc R. Franken, MSc O.J. van Gerwen. Deltares: PhD. F. Klijn, PhD. R van Beek, PhD. K. de Bruijn, PhD. J. Kwadijk, prfessr F. v.d. Ven, MSc. J. Huinink, PhD. K. Stne; PhD A. ter Linde Utrecht University: prfessr P. Driessen, PhD. A. de Gier, PhD S. Meijerink, PhD. H. van Rijswick, Prfessr J. van der Sluijs Wageningen University and Research Centre: PhD. C.C. Vs, MSc. K. van de Sandt; MSc. H. Gsen, PhD. B. Schueler, prfessr C. Termeer, PhD. J. Verhagen UNESCO IHE: prfessr C. Zevenbergen, MSc. E. van Nieuwkerk, MSc. W. Veerbeek J. Rijke, S. van Herk KNMI : PhD. J. Bessembinder, PhD. C. Katsman, PhD. A. Klein Tank, PhD. G-J. van Oldenbrgh, PhD. G. van Schrier, PhD R. Sluijter Maastricht University: PhD. M. Heijnen Researchers experience with wrking at the science-plicy interface Highly experienced: prject leaders and PBL researchers. Resurces (mney, facilities) ttal prject budget 2.8m eurs PBL: 1.4 M eurs KvK/RvK: 1.4 M eurs Pagina 3 van 17

12 Octber 2012 Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta Cllabratin with ther research institutes Cllabratin with: Deltares Wageningen university and research Centre Utrecht University Maastricht University UNESCO-IHE KNMI research prgram RvK = Climate Changes Spatial Planning research prgram KvK = Knwledge fr Climate 1.2 Methdlgical aspects Methd(s) f integrating knwledge frm different surces Integratin was restricted, analysing adaptive strategies fr different sectrs (fld risks, water supplies, nature, urban areas). Integratin between the sectrs mentined and the plicy and legal aspects was realised by analysing the gvernance and legal aspects f the technical and spatial measures cnsidered. Which mdels were used (and why)? Fld risks: Deltamdel - HIS mdule f Deltares estimating ecnmic lsses and deaths f fld scenaris Water availability and drught risks: Deltamdel f Deltares. Spatial develpments: Ruimte-scanner f PBL explring future spatial develpments in the Netherlands. Only results f earlier studies were used (Netherlands in the Future PBL, 2007/2008) Which methdlgical difficulties were encuntered? Inventry f csts and effects f ptential measures in the varius dmains, especially urban and rural areas Spatial integratin f backgrund studies Integratin f backgrund studies n the physical envirnment and gvernance challenges Overall Scietal Cst Benefit analysis 1.3 What were the main research findings? Key messages f the reprt Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta: Unbreachable dykes and managing spatial develpment in the Rhine- Meuse fldplain will make the Netherlands safer and mre climateresilient. Climate-prfing freshwater supplies will require a mre flexible water system and better use f the water in the Rhine. Climate-prfing ecsystems and bidiversity will require revising the strategy behind the Natinal Eclgical Netwrk. Implementatin f climate-prfing measures in urban develpment tday may cnsiderably reduce csts fr tmrrw. Pagina 4 van 17

13 Octber 2012 Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta A clear divisin f respnsibilities between central gvernment and ther parties. See Appendix 1 fr detailed messages. What were the cnclusins frm the prject evaluatin? Still t be presented 2. Infrmatin that is relevant fr evaluating the scietal quality f the research 2.1 Mtivatin fr the activity Request in 2008 frm frmer Ministry f VROM (Public Husing, Spatial develpment and Envirnment) which, frm crdinated the develpment f the natinal adaptatin strategy. First phase f the prject was a scping study : Radmap t a climate-prf Netherlands. In this study the fllw-up study was defined. In 2010, the Delta Prgramme was established (See infrmatin Appendix 1) and after the electins new Ministries were frmed. This meant that PBL s primary client changed. It tk quite sme time t cme t an agreement abut the psitin f PBL s study in the new ministerial and Delta Prgramme setting. Varius meetings at directr level were required and eventually the study was cupled with the publicatin f the Delta Prgramme 2012, published in September In the Delta Prgramme 2012 the PBL study was annunced as relevant develpments and the first results were mentined: ma%202012_en_def%20internet_tcm pdf 2.2 Target audiences, interested parties, client(s) and knwledge demand by the client(s) Target audiences: gvernment, ministries, prvinces, water bards, municipalities, NGOs, cmmercial sectrs (agriculture, building cmmunity etc.) Primary client: Ministry f VROM, after 2010, the Delta prgramme (within the Ministry f Infrastructure and the Envirnment). Knwledge demand: spatial cnsequences f climate adaptatin, ptins fr adaptatin within the cntext f adaptive strategy, integratin f knwledge frm research prgrammes Climate Changes Spatial Planning (RvK) and Knwledge fr Climate (KvK) Pagina 5 van 17

14 Octber 2012 Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta 2.3 T what extent and fr which purpse has interactin with the client and target audiences taken place? regular meetings f the PBL prject management and prject team with representatives f (frmer) ministries VROM, LNV (Agriculture, Nature and Fd Security), V&W (Public wrks and Water Management); IPO (Inter Prvincial Crdinatin), UvW (Unin f Water bards) regular meetings f the prject management and the prject team with prgramme directrs f the Delta prgramme (fld risks, water supplies, urban develpment) wrkshps with varius audiences arund backgrund studies. 2.4 The varius prducts f the prject; their availability (e.g. frm the website) and the language f publicatin(s Main reprt 2011: Een delta in beweging Buwstenen vr een klimaatbestendige ntwikkeling van Nederland (2011) Dutch; number f hard cpies: 750 (sld ut by nw). Available n PBL website: English Summary 2011: Climate adaptatin in the Dutch delta Strategic ptins fr a climate-prf develpment f the Netherlands English; number f hard cpies: 750 (280 left by nw). Available n PBL website: Explratry studies 2009: Wegen naar een klimaatbestendig Nederland (2009) Dutch; number f hard cpies: 500 (100 left by nw) Available n PBL website: Nederland English summary: Radmap t a climate-prf Netherlands (2009) English; number f hard cpies: 500. Available n PBL website: Netherland Fld prtectin in the Netherlands: framing lng-term challenges and ptins fr a climate resilient delta (2009) English; number f hard cpies: 500 (40 left by nw). framing-lng-term-challenges-and-ptins-fr-a-climate-resilient-delta Pagina 6 van 17

15 Octber 2012 Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta Supprting backgrund reprts Klijn et al (2010). Fld risks and drught risks in a changing climate (In Dutch). Overstrmingsrisic s en drgte risic s in een veranderend klimaat. Deltares, Utrecht/Delft VEB-0005-r-Overstrmingsrisic%27s+en+drgterisic%27s+in+een+veranderend+klimaat+bieb.pdf?versin=1&m dificatindate= M. Vnk, C.C. Vs, D.C.J. van der Hek (2010). Adaptatin strategy fr climate-prfing nature. (In Dutch) Adaptatiestrategie vr een klimatbestendige natuur. PBL publicatin number limaatbestendige_natuur Van de Sandt & Gsen (2011). Twards a climate-prf rural area. (In Dutch). Naar een klimaatbestendig landelijk gebied. Van de Ven et al (2011). Building the Netherlands climate prf. Urban areas. UNESCO IHE/Deltares, Delft. Driessen et al (2011). Plicy and juridical aspects f adaptatin t climate change. (In Dutch). Beleids- en rechtswetenschappelijke aspecten van klimaatadaptatie. KvK, KvR, Wageningen. Van Minnen, J.G. & W. Ligtvet et al (2012). Effects f climate change in the Netherlands un update. In Dutch: Effecten van klimaatverandering in Nederland een update. PBL publicatin number PBL Netherlands Envirnmental assessment Agency, Bilthven/The Hague. 3. Hw were research findings and cnclusins cmmunicated t the client and whether r nt recmmendatins t plicymakers and ther target audiences were made 16 June 2010 presentatin by M. Hajer n findings PBL study n Delta prgramme Knwledge Sympsium (Amsterdam) Nvember 2010 M. Hajer invited fr interview n stage at the 1 st Natinal Delta Cngress f the Delta Prgramme (Scheveningen) February 2011 meeting at directr level with the Delta Prgramme and Ministry f Infrastrcuture and Envirnment (The Hague) June 2011 meeting at directr level with the Delta Prgramme and Ministry f Infrastructure and Envirnment (The Hague) Nvember 2011 M. Hajer invited fr reflectins n stage fr Panel discussins at the 2 nd Natinal Delta Cngres (Amsterdam). June 2012: presentatin by J. van Minnen, invited by the EEA fr the EIONET wrkshp Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptatin, Brussels, March 2012, presentatin by J. Van Minnen, t the members f the Eurpean Netwrk f Envirnmental Prtectin Agencies (EPA), Dessau. References t newspaper articles, plicy dcuments, parliamentary discussins, interviews, public discussins, blgs and website references, prviding an impressin f hw prducts were valued by clients, target audience(s) and ther stakehlders ( impact mnitring data ); Pagina 7 van 17

16 Octber 2012 Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta In the Delta prgramme reprt 2011, the PBL reprt is referred t under the heading Relevant develpments and cnclusins are cited in relevant chapters (Deltaprgramma, 2011). Interview f M. Hajer + publicatin in NRC newspaper (2011) Interview f W. Ligtvet by Waternet n fld risk strategies + publicatin n waterfrum.net (2011) archief/2129-planbureau-rl-nieuwe-waterweg-bij-tegengaan-verzilting Interview f W. Ligtvet by Waternet n water supplies strategies + publicatin n waterfrum.net (2011) archief/2124-rapprt-pbl-qdeltadijken-zijn-veel-veiligerq Newspaper articles n Effects f climate change in the netherlands in NRC, Vlkskrant, Elsevier, Financial Newspaper and references t the reprt n many websites (all 2012). Interviews abut Effects f climate change in te Netherlands in Financial Newspaper in Agricultural Magazine Blembllenvisie (august 2012). Pssible fllw-up activities that emerged as a result f this prject Invited by the Delta prgramme t cllabrate with CPB, KNMI, Rijkswaterstaat, Deltares in prject Delta-scenaris explring future develpments and adaptatin strategies in the Netherlands, cmbining sci-ecnmic and climate change scenaris. scenari's_final.pdf Invited by the Delta prgramme t execute in cllabratin with CPB Netherlands Bureau fr Ecnmic Plicy Analysis a cst benefit analysis f shrt term and lng term adaptatin ptins fr the IJsselmeergebied (regin in the middle f the Netherlands)(water supplies). Invited by Delta prgramme t take a seat in the Steering Grup n Cst Benefit Analysis fr the Delta prgramme (dr. F. Dietz Head f Sectr Sustainable Develpment) Organisatin f Interministerial Diner/wrkshp with 7 Directr Generals, Delta Cmmissiner and Prgramme manager Suthwest Delta n lng term develpment scenaris fr the Suthwestern delta area f the Netherlands (March 2012, The Hague; summary f results in PBL, 2012) Invited by ministry f Infrastructure and the Envirnment and three prvinces t develp lng-term integrated develpment scenaris fr the Suthwestern delta area f the Netherlands and investigate the cnsequences fr shrt term investments f ministries, prvinces and municipalities (May-September 2012). Invited by EEA in Advisry grup in EEA reprt 2012 n Climate change and adaptatin in Eurpe. Pagina 8 van 17

17 Octber 2012 Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta 4. Infrmatin that is relevant fr evaluating the scientific quality f the research With regard t the publicatin(s) abut this prject Which publicatin(s) have been prduced? Publicatins with PBL authrs: *Klijn, F., K.M. de Bruijn, J.M. Knp, & Kwadijk, J Assessment f the Netherlands fld risk management plicy under glbal change. DOI: /s x. Ambi 41(2012)/ *Klijn, F., J.M. Knp, W. Ligtvet, & M.Mens In search f rbust fld risk management alternatives fr the Netherlands. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 12: *Knp, J.M., F.Klijn, and W. Ligtvet On the ptential cntributin f spatial planning in cmbinatin with unbreachable embankments in the design f a rbust fld risk system, exemplified fr the Netherlands. Prceedings f the Fldrisk 2012 cnference (accepted) *Tennekes,J. (2012) 'Imprving Institutinal Cnditins fr Adaptive Planning in the Netherlands', in: Hartmann, Th. and B. Needham (eds): Planning by Law and Prperty Rights Recnsidered, Ashgate, Lndn. *Vs, C.C, D.C. J. van der Hek & M. Vnk (2010) Spatial planning f a climate adaptatin zne fr wetland ecsystems, Landscape Ecl (2010) 25: _ Springer Science+Business Media B.V Witte, J.P.M., J. Runhaar, R. van Ek & D.C.J. van der Hek (2009b), Eerste landelijke schets van de echydrlgische effecten van een warmer en grilliger klimaat, H2O 16/17. Publicatins f ther authrs: *Peter P.J. Driessen and Helena F.M.W. van Rijswick (2011), Nrmative Aspects f Climate Adaptatin Plicy, 2(4) Climate Law p Which publicatin(s) are/is peer reviewed, which are/is nt? See abve, publicatins marked *. Hw many references t these publicatins have been made in scientific literature? N data available Which presentatins f the research findings were held fr a scientific audience, fr example at cnferences? Claire Vs, Marijke Vnk, Dirk-Jan van der Hek (2010) Building adaptive capacity fr wetlands when cmpetitin fr land is high. Delta s in change Rtterdam 2010 D.C.J. van der Hek (2009) Adapting the landscape t climate change, Examples f climate crridrs fr several ecsystems ENCA, Vilm C.C. Vs, M Vnk, DCJ van der Hek (2010) Adapting the landscape t climate change, Example Climate crridr fr wetlands Green infrastructure EU Brussels Pagina 9 van 17

18 Octber 2012 Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta Tennekes, J. Hw t chse apprpriate plicy instruments fr climate adaptatin? Paper presented at the Furth Internatinal Academic Cnference n Planning, Law, and Prperty Rights, Drtmund febrary 2010 Tennekes, J., P. Driessen, M. van Rijswick, L. van Bree, Nrmative aspects f planning fr climate adaptatin: Out f the cmfrt zne. Paper presented at at the cllquium L'actin publique face au changement climatique, Brdeaux f March Presentatins fr ther frums Knp, J. Csts and effects f fld prtectin plicies in the Netherlands. Deltacngres, 29 Sept 2010, Scheveningen. Knp, J. Climate-prfing the Metrplic regin f Rtterdam/Drdrecht. Metrpldag, 15 March 2012, Den Haag. Ligtvet, W. Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta Strategic ptins fr a climateprf develpment f the Netherlands. Amsterdam Wrld Water Week, 3 Nvember 2011, Amsterdam. Ligtvet, W. Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta Strategic ptins fr a climateprf develpment: Water Supplies. Cmmittee Water Management/ Directrs f the Water Bards. 18 Nvember 2012, Amersfrt. Ligtvet, W. Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta Strategic ptins fr a climateprf develpment f the Netherlands. Meeting n behalf f the Chinese delegatin n adaptatin in the Netherlands. Ministry f Infrastructure & Envirnment, 2012, Den Haag. Minnen, J. van. Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta Strategic ptins fr a climate-prf develpment f the Netherlands. EPA Specialist Grup cnference, Dessau, Germany, March Minnen, J. van. Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta Strategic ptins fr a climate-prf develpment f the Netherlands. Brussels, May Are the publicatins the result f cllabratin with ther research institutes? Cllabratin with ther institutes: Deltares Wageningen University Utrecht University Maastricht University UNESCO-IHE KNMI Hw des the publicatin deal with methdlgical questins and uncertainties? Dealing with uncertainty is the starting pint f the analysis f adaptatin ptins within the cntext f an adaptive strategy with respect t fld risks, water supplies, nature, and urban areas. Fcus is n technical and spatial measures and gvernance challenges. Pagina 10 van 17

19 Octber 2012 Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta With regard t individual researchers, what is: Their psitin within research netwrks (pssible university affiliatins) Their scientific backgrund (PhD. r ther title) and membership f scientific grups, advisry cmmittees, etc. Willem Ligtvet Willem Ligtvet wrks since 1997 at the PBL Netherlands Envirnmental Assessment Agency in the field f water, spatial develpment and adaptatin (at the glbal, Eurpean and natinal scale). He has been head f the department Plicy Research n Water f the Water and Drinking Water Unit f the Natinal Institute fr Public Health and the Envirnment and is adjunct head f the sectr Water Agriculture and Fd within PBL. Willem has been prject leader fr several majr PBL-prjects in the field f water, eclgy, sustainability utlks and adaptatin t climate change. He has been/is a member f several advisry bards and expert grups fr the Dutch gvernment and the EEA. Befre jining the PBL, Willem wrked as a researcher at the Natinal Institute f Nature Management, the University f Leiden (fishery eclgy f Lake Victria, Tanzania) and as senir cnsultant at Witteveen & Bs Cnsulting engineers where he, amng ther things, crdinated envirnmental assessment prjects in the Netherlands and abrad (Gaza, Egypt, Indnesia). Willem hlds a MSc in bilgy frm the University f Leiden, the Netherlands. Nic Pieterse Nic Pieterse is a physical gegrapher with a 18-year track recrd in multidisciplinary research and spatial planning. Within this perid, he wrked at the University Utrecht (where he acquired his Ph.D), as a cnsultant and fr the PBL Netherlands Envirnmental Assessment Agency. Nic has experience in the field f integrated landscape mdeling, scenari develpment and fld risk zning. Last year he was c-prject leader f the rganisatinal change f PBL frm tw lcatins t ne (virtual) lcatin, especially fcused n ICT and new wrking pssibilities. Marijke Vnk Marijke Vnk is a senir plicy researcher at the PBL Netherlands Envirnmental Assessment Agency. Her wrk fcuses n integrated assessments f envirnment, nature and water management, in particular climate change adaptatin. Over the years, Marijke Vnk has been invlved in many utlk studies, analyses and evaluatins n strategic decisin-making by the Dutch Gvernment: the relatinship between gvernance issues and the prgress in slving envirnmental prblems. She has been the authr f several plicy assessments n bidiversity and climate adaptatin. Gert Jan van den Brn Gert Jan van den Brn is a senir researcher n sustainable land use at the PBL Netherlands Envirnmental Assessment Agency. His wrk fcuses mainly n agriculture. He has been the authr f studies and publicatins n emissins frm land use and land use change, integrated envirnmental assessments (natinal, Eurpean and glbal scale), climate change (impacts assessments, mitigatin and adaptatin), bi-energy (bifuels, bi-prducts) and scenari studies n behalf f the Dutch Delta prgram. Gert Jan van den Brn was ne f the scientists invlved in the assessing f an IPCC Pagina 11 van 17

20 Octber 2012 Climate Adaptatin in the Dutch Delta assessment, an analysis f statements n prjected reginal impacts in the 2007 reprt. Leendert van Bree Leendert van Bree is a senir plicy researcher psitin at the Netherlands Envirnmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and the fcus f his wrk is n envirnmental health gvernance and spatial planning, risk assessment and risk management, climate change and health, climate-prf cities, and envirnmental assessment tls in the field f health, well-being, and quality f life. Befre, at the Natinal Institute f Public Health and the Envirnmental (RIVM) he has headed the inhalatin txiclgy grup fcusing n the health effects f air pllutants and, later, the health risk assessment grup f the envirnment department. He has crdinated a large number f envirnmental health studies, funded by Dutch scientific rganizatins and the Dutch ministry f Envirnment. He is currently invlved in envirnmental plicy evaluatins and advice fr natinal and internatinal bdies and agencies (Dutch Gvernment, Eurpean Cmmissin, EEA, and WHO) and als functins as a liaisn fficer fr cllabratin between PBL and universities. Leendert hlds a PhD n structure-txicity relatinships f persistent envirnmental pllutants. Rn Franken Rn Franken is general water plicy researcher at PBL Netherlands Envirnmental Assessment Agency. The Dutch freshwater plicy related t climate change adaptatin is ne f his tpics. With respect t this tpic he is invlved in the Delta Prgramme. His cntributins are published in PBLreprts and reprts f related Dutch institutes (CPB Netherlands Bureau fr Ecnmic Plicy Analysis and RWS Centre fr Water Management). Rn hlds a MSc in Chemical engineering frm the University f Wageningen, the Netherlands. Olav Jan van Gerwen Olav-Jan van Gerwen is an envirnmental ecnmist. Since 1992 he is wrking at PBL Netherlands Envirnmental Assessment Agency and its earlier precursrs. He was invlved in varius integrated assessments, such as the 4- yearly Natinal Envirnmental Outlk, the yearly Envirnmental Balance, the s called building stnes fr the furth Natinal Envirnmental Plicy Plan and fr example the evaluatin f the envirnmental effects f electin prgrammes. In the end f 1999 he became head f the natinal divisin f the Department fr Envirnmental Assessment. In 2002 he became head f the Crdinatin and Advice Unit f the Envirnmental Assessment Agency. Since September 2010 he is deputy head f the sectr Spatial Planning and Quality f the Lcal Envirnment f PBL. Jst Knp Jst Knp is a senir plicy researcher at the PBL Netherlands Envirnmental Assessment Agency wrking n studies n the adaptatin t climate changes in the field f water, at the natinal scale as well as at the Eurpean and glbal scale. Befre that he was head f the department f Mathematical Mdels and Statistics at the Water and Drinking Water Unit f the Natinal Institute fr Public Health and the Envirnment. He hlds a MSc in Chemical Engineering frm the University f Twente. Jst has experience in the field f envirnmental mdeling and plicy research n a brad range f subjects. Pagina 12 van 17

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