Deforestation and climate change

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1 Deforestation and climate

2 CONTENTS Deforestation in protected areas 4 Methodology 5 Assessment results 8 ARPA s effect 11 Influence from management objective and use 14 Influence of the scope of administration 15 Deforestation Arch 16 Peaks 18 PAs having atypical deforestation 20 Deforestation decrease 20 Recommendations 21 Annex 1 23 Histograms: deforestation X analysis criteria 23 Annex 2 34 List of all PAs analized 34 References 42

3 Protected areas and climate 43 ARPA introduced new ranking 46 Monitoring, patrol and insurance 47 Further studies and guidelines 48 PAs prevent illegal and predatory actions 50 Brazil s differentials 51 Crucial role 52 REDD+ 60 Scenarios for The cost-benefit balance 63 Green barrier 64 References and notes 65

4 Federative Republic of Brazil President Dilma Rousseff Vice-President Michel Temer Federal Ministry of the Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira Executive Secretary Francisco Gaetani Head of Biodiversity and Forests Department Roberto Cavalcanti Protected Areas Director Ana Paula Leite Prates Head of Amazon Region Protected Areas Program (ARPA) Trajano Quinhões Publication title 2nd edition: ARPA Making the difference on Amazon conservation Publisher: Amazon Region Protected Areas Program (ARPA): Federal Ministry of the Environment ICMBio State governments in the Brazilian Amazon: Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, Pará and Tocantins WWF-Brazil FUNBIO German Cooperation through KfW Development Bank & GTZ Technical Cooperation Agency World Bank GEF Amazonia Fund BNDES Brazilian National Bank for Development Organized and produced by: WWF-Brazil: CEO Maria Cecília Wey de Brito Head of the Amazon Program Mauro Armelin Communications Manager Andréa de Lima Technical Review André Nahur - Conservation officer, WWF-Brazil Cláudio C. Maretti Conservation Director, WWF-Brazil in 2010 Carlos Rittl Climate Change Program Manager, WWF-Brazil Daniela Leite - Program Management Funbio Daniela Oliveira - PhD in Sustainable Development - CDS / UnB Fábio França de Araújo - MMA- SBF-DAP (Brazilian Ministry of the Environment) in 2010 Fabio Leite Program Manager, FUNBIO Francisco Barbosa Oliveira Jr. Amazon Protected Areas and ARPA Support Program Officer, WWF-Brazil in 2010 Magaly Oliveira GIS expert, WWF-Brazil Márcia Soares Communications Officer, FUNBIO Mariana Napolitano Ferreira Conservation officer, WWF-Brazil Mario Barroso GIS expert, WWF-Brazil Marisete Catapan Protected Areas expert, WWF-Brazil Mauro Armelin Head of the Amazon Program, WWF-Brazil Rosiane Pinto - Environmental Analyst - MMA / SBF / DAP / ARPA Trajano Quinhões - Project Manager / Coordinator of ARPA - MMA / SBF / DAP / ARPA Technical analysis and report Chapter on Biodiversity Mariana Ferreira, Mario Barroso, Paula Valdujo and Gabriel Costa Chapter on Management Effectiveness Mariana Ferreira, Marisete Catapan, Maria Auxiliadora Drummond and Cristina Onaga. Chapter on Deforestation and Climate Change André Nahur, Mônica Takako Shimabukuro, Regina Vasquez, Mario Barroso, and Cláudio Maretti. Chapter on ARPA s Financial and Operational Management Fábio França, Marcos Araújo, Daniela Leite, Rosiane Pinto e Trajano Quinhões Writing & editing Regina Vasquez & Marcos Gonçalves English translation Regina Vasquez & Martin Charles Nicholl Production, final editing and review Ligia Paes de Barros Communications officer, WWF-Brazil Graphic design Márcio Duarte - M10 Design Images WWF-Brazil Acknowledgements ICMBio, Sedam-RO, Sema-AC, Sema-MT, SDS-AM * Part of the studies for this publication were done with the support of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety (BMU) of the Federal Republic of Germany

5 4 Deflorestation Deforestation in protected areas An analysis of the Brazilian Amazon protected areas deforestation data shows that ARPA s contribution strengthens PAs efficiency to decrease deforestation Brazil has the largest tropical forest deforestation in the world (in absolute terms), according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization s (Fao) Global Forest Resources Assessment During the past decade, in spite of the country s progress in fighting Amazon forest destruction, average yearly losses of Brazilian Amazon natural forests Although they are officially protected, PAs in the Brazilian Amazon are not free from deforestation. The lack of land ordering or the non-compliance with the laws clear the way for predatory activities resulting in the destruction of native vegetation cover and its associated biodiversity amounted to 17,600 square kilometers every year (Prodes data; see further details below). The area is equivalent to Taiwan and slightly larger than Hawaii (in Brazil it is comparable to almost the size of Sergipe state or three times the Federal District area). Deforestation is intensified in the area known as the deforestation arch, which signals the agricultural and cattle ranching frontier moving from the Central-West region to the North of the country. Protected areas play a crucial role in refraining forest destruction in the Brazilian Amazon. The Amazon Region Protected Areas Program (ARPA) strengthens this role. Protected areas participating in the ARPA Program proved to be more efficient and faster in stopping forest destruction. Official deforestation monitoring data, based on satellite images of the Brazilian Amazon (see further details below) show that deforestation is clearly smaller within and around the protected areas (PAs) in comparison to the areas outside or away from them. A comparative analysis of 198 studied PAs reveals that deforestation rate is indeed smaller in the 63 PAs which were supported by ARPA until 2010, in comparison to the 136 PAs left out of this Program. A general diagnosis of deforestation within and around the PAs was produced based on the accumulated deforestation data for each protected area in the Brazilian Amazon. Besides the diagnosis, this analysis provided a base line for ARPA-supported PAs monitoring. Although they are officially protected, PAs in the Brazilian Amazon are not free from deforestation. The lack of land ordering or the non-compliance with the laws clear the way for predatory activities resulting in the destruction of native vegetation cover and its associated biodiversity. Even if such activities take place, protected areas still act like a barrier against deforestation. Moreover, the effect of a protected area goes beyond its boundaries and has a shadow effect all around it. Another important fact is that avoided deforestation in and around PAs is not shifted to another area, which means that there is no leak in it (Soares et al 20102). 1 Global Forest Resources Assessment Progress towards sustainable forest management. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (Fao), Roma, SOARES-FILHO B.; et a. Role of Brazilian Amazon protected areas in climate mitigation. Proc National Academy of Sciences USA, v. 107, n. 24, p , 15 de junho de Publicada eletronicamente em 26 mai0 de 2010.

6 5 Deflorestation The deforested area within each one of the 198 PAs under analysis totals 9,520 square kilometers the equivalent to 1.4% of those PAs total area (699,258 sq. km). According to the Brazilian Amazon Forest Monitoring System through Satellite Surveillance (Prodes), 17,600 sq. km of natural forest were lost every year from 2000 to 2009 in the Brazilian Amazon region. Greenhouse gas emissions illuminate the implications of a forest conversion of such magnitude: around 0.7 to 1.4 GT C02 were generated per year as a result of 195,000 sq. km deforested in the period (Nepstad et al. 2010)3. According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), this is the equivalent to 10-25% of USA emissions in Consolidated results for the extent of deforestation (measured in square kilometers) within the Amazon protected areas show that in 48% of PAs deforestation was limited to 10 sq. km or less. Together, those PAs account for 267 sq. km of deforested area. Another 29% of PAs lost 10 to 50 sq. km of forests and their deforested area totaled 1,446 sq. km. Over half of the PAs in that group (31 PAs) is located in the Deforestation Arch. The remaining 23% refer to PAs which lost over 50 sq. km of their native vegetation and, together, they account for 7,805.9 sq. km of deforested area. Three fourths of them (76%) are located in the Arch. The average percentage of deforested area within the PAs is 7%. In near three fourths of the PAs (73%), almost the entire forest cover was kept standing (at least 95% of the PA s total area was preserved), while 16% of the PAs lost over 10% of its forests. The other remaining 11% had between 5 and 10 sq. km of deforestation. One tenth of deforested area is 3 NEPSTAD, D.; et al. The End of Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Science, v. 326, n. 5958, p , the threshold beyond which vegetation destruction starts having a very negative impact upon ecology. Methodology Late in 2009, deforestation within the PAs was calculated by the Brazilian Ministry of the Environment s Biodiversity and Forest Department (MMA/SBF) and the National Space Research Institute (Inpe), which is linked to the Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology (MCT), using the yearly data from Prodes. The output of that computing work became the data basis for an analysis of the effectiveness of ARPA support to the PAs in preventing deforestation. The analysis took into account the quantitative data about deforestation in all protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon. From a total of 304 PAs existing in the Amazon (table 1), we excluded PAs in the following categories: Environmental Protection Area (APA) and Forest, both from the sustainable use group. Three other categories Natural Monument and Wildlife Refuge, in the strict protection group, and Area of Special Ecological Interest, in the sustainable use group, are not eligible for ARPA support and therefore do not appear in the ARPA group of PAs. Considering that those categories represent a very small minority, the fact that they only appear in the group of PAs without ARPA support does not affect the analysis outcome. Therefore, only 198 PAs were analyzed for this assessment. Table 2 presents the 198 PAs composing the data base for this assessment, according to category distribution. The categories having more PAs are Extractive Reserves (71 PAs, corresponding to 23% of total PAs) and Parks (64 PAs, corresponding to 21% of total PAs).

7 6 Deflorestation Table 1 PA distribution according to management groups and protection categories Management Group Strict Protection Sustainable Use Category Number of PAS Park (IUCN category II) Ecological Station (IUCN category I) Biological Reserve (IUCN category I) % Natural Monument (IUCN III) 1 0 Wildlife Refuge (IUCN III) 2 1 Extractive Reserve (IUCN VI) Forest (IUCN VI) Area of Special Ecological Interest (IUCN IV) Sustainable Development Reserve (IUCN VI) Environmental Protection Area (IUCN V) TOTAL PAS 304 Table 2 Distribution of analyzed PAs according to management groups and protection categories Category # of PAs Park 64 Ecological Station 23 Biological Reserve 14 Extractive Reserve 71 Sustainable Development Reserve 20 Anaylised sampe subtotal 192 Natural Monument* 1 Wildlife Refuge* 2 Area of Special Ecological Interest * 3 TOTAL ANALYZED PAS 198 * Categories only included in the non-arpa group Several criteria were used to analyze the levels of forest conversion: management objective (sustainable use reserves or strict protection areas); location in or out of the agriculture frontier expansion area (in or out of the Deforestation Arch); whether they are supported by ARPA Program or not; scope of administration (state or federal government level); and the deforestation path within and around the PA. There is a similar number of PAs in the various scopes, management category groups, and location in or out of the Deforestation Arch. There is also a similar area that was occupied by all of the 136 PAs without ARPA support by 2010 (373,846 sq. km) and the set of 63 PAs supported by ARPA then (325,412 sq. km). Numerical difference only appears in the distinction between the ARPA group, representing 31% of total PAs, and the group left out of ARPA (table 3). The situation is the same when the focus is on the Arch of Deforestation. Among the PAs located in the Arch region, 37% belong to ARPA and the ratio between sustainable use and strict protection is maintained (table 3). Juan Pratginestos / WWF-Canon

8 7 Deflorestation Table 3 Distribution of PAs according to scope of administration, management objective, geographical location and ARPA support Criteria Scope Number of PAs % of total PAs Scope Management objective Deforestation Arch ARPA support Federal State Strict protection Sustainable use In Out Yes No TOTAL The extent of the deforested area was compared with the PA s deforested percentage (accumulated deforestation from the pre-1997 period until 2008, in the histogram format, and considering the above criteria see Annex 1). Initially, the analysis focused on the distribution of the extent and the percentage of deforested area for all PAs (see histograms in Annex 1). Taking into account the difference in size between the two sets of PAs (63 in the ARPA group and 136 in the non-arpa group), in both sets there is a clear predominance of PAs where total deforestation is limited to 10 sq. km and to 5% of the total converted area within the PA. Class limits were identified based particularly on the evaluation of the impact upon the protected area caused by the size and percentage of the deforested area within it. Ten per cent of deforested area in a PA is considered to be the threshold beyond which the removal of vegetation cover starts having a very negative impact. Data was grouped in three classes, according to the extent of deforested area within the PA: up to 10 sq. km; from 10 to 50 sq. km; and over 50 sq. km. To analyze the deforested percentage in each PA, groups were formed according to the percent rate of deforestation within the PA: up to 5%; between 5 and 10%; and over 10%. Table 4 shows the adopted format to present histogram result. Table 4 Class limits for histograms in PA deforestation analysis Description Class Cumulative % Deforested area (sq. km) in the PA Ratio (%) of deforested area in the PA Up to 10 Number of PAs % of total PAs 10 to 50 Number of PAs % of total PAs Above 50 Number of PAs % of total PAs Up to 5 Number of PAs % of total PAs 5 to 10 Number of PAs % of total PAs Above 10 Number of PAs % of total PAs Deforestation was assessed in the PAs surroundings within a radius of 10 km from the PA perimeter. There were no overlaps of surrounding areas with other protected areas located within a smaller distance than the adopted radius length. PAs and their surrounding areas were examined according to ARPA support with ARPA support (ARPA-PA) and without ARPA support (non ARPA- PA). Likewise, surrounding areas were analyzed according to ARPA support (ARPA-surrounding and non-arpasurrounding). The values for the percentage of deforested area in each PA and its respective surrounding area were

9 8 Deflorestation added up, thus generating just one average annual value for each one of the four assessed situations. When analyzing the deforestation dynamics in the PAs with ARPA support, one must take into account that the implementation of ARPA Program is quite recent (it started in 2002) and also that the creation of protected areas and their inclusion in the Program happened gradually, which does not allow the identification of a time and space base line. The deforestation path along was assessed in order to analyze the impact of ARPA support in the PAs as well as in their surrounding areas located in the Deforestation Arch. Data referring to deforestation occurring before 1997 was disregarded because, unlike other annual data, it represents forest conversion accumulated along several years. Assessment results The first outcome of this analysis was a diagnosis of present deforestation situation in 198 Pas and in their surroundings in the Amazon (table 5). Several new protected areas, created in the Amazon during the past decade, are related to ARPA support, a program established in 2002 by the Brazilian government. In regions where there are more and greater threats to the forest cover (Deforestation Arch), the difference in performance becomes even more striking between the PAs participating in ARPA and those left out of the Program. Because deforestation is the main source of greenhouse gas (CO2, in this case) emissions in Brazil, it is crucial to keep forests standing in order for the country to do its part in fighting global warming and keeping Earth s climate balance. Table 5 Summary of deforestation results in Amazon protected areas under analysis in this study Non-ARPA ARPA Scope Protection group Number of PAs Total area of PAs (sq. km) State Federal Extent of deforested area (sq. km) Percentage of deforested area (%) Strict protection ,324 1, Sustainable use ,898 1, State total ,223 2, Strict protection ,236 1, Sustainable use 27 41,387 2, Federal total ,624 3, Non-ARPA total ,846 6,270 1,7 State Federal Strict protection 13 30, Sustainable use 9 30, State total 22 61, Strict protection ,612 1, Sustainable use 22 79,707 1, Federal total ,320 2, Total ARPA ,412 3, GRAND TOTAL ,258 9,

10 Data in table 5, above, show that it is possible to verify that deforestation is clearly smaller within the PAs and around them than out of and away from them. Another important point in this comparative analysis of the 198 PAs considered in this study is that it proves that the deforestation rate is indeed smaller in the 63 PAs with ARPA support than the deforestation rate in the 136 PAs which do not participate in the Program. Table 6 Percentage of deforested area in PAs Criteria Number of PAs having up to 5% of the area deforested % of PAs in this group Number of PAs having 5 to 10% of the area deforested % of PAs in this group Number of PAs having over 10% of the area deforested % of PAs in this group Total PAs 9 Deflorestation TOTAL ARPA support ARPA Non-ARPA Management group Sustainable use reserves Strict protection areas Management group + ARPA support Sustainable use + ARPA Sustainable use + non-arpa Strict protection + ARPA Strict protection + non-arpa Scope (level of administration) State Federal Location in relation to the Deforestation Arch In the Arch Out of the Arch In the Deforestation Arch ARPA Non-ARPA

11 Criteria Number of PAs having up to 5% of the area deforested % of PAs in this group Number of PAs having 5 to 10% of the area deforested % of PAs in this group Number of PAs having over 10% of the area deforested % of PAs in this group Total PAs Sustainable use reserves Strict protection areas ARPA + sustainable use ARPA + strict protection ARPA + state Deflorestation ARPA + federal Table 7 Extent of deforestation in PAs Criteria Number of PAs having up to 10 sq. km of deforested area % of PAs in this group Total deforested area (sq. km) Number of PAs having 10 to 50 sq. km of deforested area % of PAs in this group Total deforested area (sq. km) Number of PAs having over 50 sq. km of deforested area % of PAs in this group Total deforested area (sq. km) Total PAs TOTAL , , ARPA support ARPA , Non-ARPA , Management group Sustainable use reserves , Strict protection areas , Scope (level of administration) State , Federal ,464,0 94 Management group + ARPA or non-arpa Sustainable use + ARPA Sustainable use + Non-ARPA , Strict protection + ARPA ,

12 Criteria Number of PAs having up to 10 sq. km of deforested area % of PAs in this group Total deforested area (sq. km) Number of PAs having 10 to 50 sq. km of deforested area % of PAs in this group Total deforested area (sq. km) Number of PAs having over 50 sq. km of deforested area % of PAs in this group Total deforested area (sq. km) Total PAs Strict protection + Non-ARPA , Location in relation to the Deforestation Arch In the Arch , Out of the Arch , Deflorestation In the Deforestation Arch ARPA , Non-ARPA , Sustainable use reserves , Strict protection areas , Sustainable use + ARPA Strict protection + ARPA , State + ARPA Federal + ARPA , ARPA s effect ARPA s objective is to expand, implement, and ensure the sustainability of a portion of the National Protected Areas System (Snuc) in the Amazon biome. During ARPA s 1st Phase, the support to strict protection areas and sustainable use reserves was gradually increased and today it reached 63 PAs (chart 7), occupying a total area of 320,000 sq. km Such effort corresponds to 46 million US dollars invested in the creation and implementation of PAs (72% of the total spent during the 1st Phase), besides additional funds from federal and state governments, plus another 29.7 million US dollars raised for the Protected Areas Fund (FAP) apart from the 10 million US euros donation by Germany s development bank KfW, which has not yet been accounted for. FAP ensures sustainability for protected areas supported by ARPA. Read further details about ARPA s investments in the chapter on the Program s operational and financial management by FUNBIO. In general, PAs participating in the ARPA Program

13 12 Deflorestation were less affected by deforestation than the set of PAs which are not supported by ARPA. Almost all PAs (97%) supported by ARPA kept a deforestation level below the dangerous level, i.e., it did not go beyond the 10% threshold in the PA area. The great majority of them (92%) were able to limit forest loss to 5% or less. In the non-arpa group, only 64% of PAs featured a deforestation rate of 5% or less, although 84% were within the 10% threshold. Only 3% of PAs with ARPA support lost more than 10% o the area (compared to 16% in the non-arpa group). After examining the distribution of the extent of deforestation in terms of area (sq. km) and the distribution of the ratio of the area in all protected areas under analysis, it stands out that there is a clear predominance of protected areas which do not go beyond the 10 sq. km or the 5% deforested area threshold. Nevertheless, comparing the group supported by ARPA with the group without ARPA support, it is evident that forest conversion in the ARPA PAs was distinctly smaller than in the other group. This is quite clear from the comparison of deforested area extent in the PA (charts 1 and 2) as well as in the comparison of deforested percentage in the PA (charts 3 and 4). Chart 1 Distribution of the size (extent) of deforested area in PAs with ARPA support Chart 2 Distribution of the size (extent) of deforested area in PAs without ARPA support Juan Pratginestos / WWF-Canon

14 Chart 3 Distribution of percentage of the deforested area in PAs with ARPA support Chart 4 Distribution of percentage of the deforested area in PAs without ARPA support 13 Deflorestation The average deforested percentage in ARPA s PAs is 1% of the area, which is a much lower value than the average deforested percentage in PAs without ARPA support, i.e. 1.7% (table 6). Among federal PAs with ARPA support, deforested percentage is even lower (0.9%), and in strict protection areas it goes down to 0.7%. In the state scope it goes up to 1.3% for strict protection areas and stays at 1.0% for sustainable use reserves. In the group without ARPA support there is an opposite situation: the deforested percentage increases to 2.3% for federal PAs, while in the sustainable use reserves it increases even further and crosses the 5% limit of deforested area, reaching 5.3%. Since ARPA is less than 10 years old, it was not possible to assess processes occurring in the medium and long term, such as the s in the land use dynamics. It should also be considered that the analysis period corresponds to the initial phase of the Program and to a great expansion in the number and area of protected areas creating a scenario of great diversity in terms of implementation stages, in PAs both with and without ARPA support. On the other hand, considering the Amazon social and environmental landscape diversity, the yearly increase of deforestation within the PAs and their surroundings is determined by local context and structural issues, such as: the quality of PA management; monitoring; patrolling and penalty regarding illegal deforestation; and macro-economic cycles. Although total deforestation extension is always greater in the PAs not participating in the ARPA Program, the analysis of the deforestation extent frequency indicates a prevalence of PAs having smaller deforestation among those not supported by ARPA which should be related to the fact that there are only 63 PAs in the ARPA group and the number more than doubles (136 PAs) in the other group. Therefore, it is possible that the ARPA group does

15 14 Deflorestation not provide a sample showing all the different occupation conditions occurring in the Amazon region. In terms of the percentage of destroyed area, the number of PAs keeping deforestation below 5% in the ARPA group corresponds to 92% this a much higher value than the 64% in the non-arpa group. Furthermore, only 3% of the ARPA PAs have more than 10% of their area deforested, while in the non-arpa PAs the frequency is 22%. The data indicates that conservation is best in PAs supported by ARPA and this becomes more evident than when looking at absolute numbers. Annual increase in deforestation from 2000 to 2009 is generally a small one (less than 20 sq. km) in the ARPA group of PAs; this applies to both strict protection areas and sustainable use reserves. Nevertheless, atypical values were detected in seven cases. Between 2003 and 2004 times of record deforestation in the Amazon, peaks were registered in regions where protected areas were created: Cristalino State Park (Mato Grosso state), 97 sq. km; Serra do Pardo National Park (Pará state), 93 sq. km; Terra do Meio Ecological Station (Pará state), 150 sq.km; and Verde para Sempre Extractive Reserve (Pará state) the latter was only created in 2005, 176 sq. km. In 2001, when ARPA Program did not yet exist, there were peaks in three Extractive Reserves: Terra Grande-Pracuuba (37 sq. km), Arioca-Pruanã (65 sq. km) and Ipaú-Anilzinho (75 sq. km). Influence from management objective and use Among the 198 analyzed protected areas, there is a proportional balance among the two groups according to management objective: 104 are strict protection areas and 94 are sustainable use reserves. In comparison with the sustainable use group, the strict protection group features a smaller number of forest conversion occurrence, both in absolute area (extent) and in the percentage of deforested area of each protected area. In general, sustainable use PAs were liable to more deforestation than the strict protection areas, although the difference was not remarkable. In the group of PAs having up to 5% of deforested area (table 6), the strict protection areas have higher absolute (87 PAs) and relative (84%) numbers than the sustainable use reserves (57 PAs, corresponding to 61%). When the criterion is the 10% threshold, the ARPA PAs featuring deforested areas up to 10 sq. km (table 7) represent 26% and total 27 sq. km; PAs having between 10 and 50 sq. km of deforested area represent 48% and total 452 sq. km; and those with over 50 sq. km of deforested area are 26% and add up to 966 sq. km. Meanwhile, among the sustainable use reserves which do not benefit from ARPA, 43% have a deforested area going up to 10 sq. km (deforested area total is 78 sq. km); 29% lost between 10 and 50 sq. km (totaling 432 sq. km); and 29% lost more than 50 sq. km of deforested area (totaling 2,935 sq. km). In terms of the percentage of deforested area in the sustainable use reserves (table 6), 90% of those with ARPA support have their extent of damage limited to 5% of the area; 7% have between 5 and 10% deforested and 3% went beyond the 10% threshold. Among the 63 PAs not benefitting from ARPA, it is more common to have PAs with a higher percentage of deforested area: in 46% of the PAs 5% of the forest was converted; 27% have between 5 and 10% deforested area; while 27% have already gone beyond the 10% threshold. In the strict protection area group there is a good level

16 15 Deflorestation of protection among the 31 PAs in the ARPA group and 94% of them have less than 5% deforested area (table 6). Another 6% are equally distributed between the 5 and 10% range and also in the range higher than 10%. Moreover, one notices (table 7) that 45% of the strict protection areas with ARPA support have up to 10 sq. km deforestation (45 sq. km in total); 29% range among 10 and 50 sq. km (228 sq. km in total); and 26% have more than 50 sq. km (1,528 sq. km deforested). Among 73 strict protection areas which do not belong in the ARPA Program, PAs having over 10% of its area deforested (table 6) has already reached 18% of total PAs. Another 3% of the strict protection areas out of the ARPA group feature between 5 and 10% deforested area. A smaller number (14 PAs or 13%) of strict protection PAs feature over 10% of deforested area, as compared to the sustainable use PAs (18 PAs or 19%). Up to 10 sq. km of deforestation (table 7) are found in 58% of the strict protection PAs (totaling 161 sq. km) and in 37% of the sustainable use PAs (totaling 106 sq. km). There are 23% strict protection PAs featuring between 10 and 50 sq. km deforestation (totaling 562 sq. km), and 19% with over 50 sq. km (totaling 3,904 sq. km). Among the sustainable use PAs, 35% feature between 20 and 50 sq. km (totaling 884 sq.km) and 28% with over 50 sq. km deforestation (totaling 3,901 sq. km). In the ARPA group, the percentage of PAs conserving 95% or more of its area is much higher than the other group (table 6). Nevertheless, the management objective is not relevant for that: 94% of the strict protection PAs and 90% of the sustainable use ones having ARPA support featured 5% or lesser deforestation. Without ARPA, the difference is more noticeable: 79% of the strict protection PAs and only 46% of the sustainable use PAs were able to keep withing this threshold. In the sustainable use group, the PAs with ARPA support feature less than 5% of converted area. Regarding the extent of the deforested area (table 7), 63% of the 73 strict protection PAs out of ARPA lost up to 10 sq. km (totaling 115 sq. km); 21% lost between 10 and 50 sq. km (totaling 333 sq. km); and 16% had over 50 sq. km deforested (totaling 2,375 sq. km of deforested area). Influence of the scope of administration PA deforestation was also compared according to the scope of administration. The group under analysis is composed of 104 state PAs and 94 federal ones. From the point of view of the extent of the deforested area (table 7) deforestation up to 10 sq. km are present in 58% of the state PAs (totaling 135 sq. km deforested area) and 37% of federal PAs (131 sq. km) total deforested area is equivalent in the groups, in spite of the difference in the percentage in each scope. Ranging from 10 to 50 sq. km of deforested area, the numbers are equivalent for both criteria: state areas represent 28%, with 727 sq. km of area; and the federal PAs are 31%, totaling 719 sq. km. Among PAs with over 50 sq. km of deforested area, a more marked difference stands out: state PAs are 14% (2,341 sq. km) and federal PAs are 33% (5,464 sq. km). State protected areas have smaller deforestation than federal areas. In terms of damaged percentage (table 6), 68% of state PAs belong in the group with up to 5% deforested area this is a lower value than the 78% found in the federal group. There is an opposite situation, however, when comparing PAs having more than 10% deforested

17 16 Deflorestation Juan Pratginestos / WWF-Canon area: 22% of state PAs and 10% of federal PAs. This may be due to the fact that state areas are smaller: 72% of state PAs measure up to 2,000 sq. km, while only 45% of the federal PAs fit in this size limit. In the Deforestation Arch, the difference among the state and federal PAs frequency as to the extent of deforestation suggests a better situation among the state protected areas with ARPA support (table 7): 61% of state PAs and 17% of federal PAs in the ARPA group which are located in the Arch kept deforestation limited to 10 sq. km or less. As to the percentage of total deforested area (table 6), the deforestation pattern in the ARPA group located in the Arch is similar among state PAs (94% have up to 5% deforestation) and also among federal ones (87%). Deforestation Arch A sizeable portion of deforestation is concentrated in a large region located upon the line dividing the North and Central-West regions in Brazil, following the ecotone between the Cerrado (tropical savannas) and the Amazon Forest. It is called Arch of Deforestation and it goes across Brazil from East to West. The Arch begins in the southern part of Pará state, crosses the northern part of Tocantins and Mato Grosso states, goes on through Rondonia state and ends up in Acre state (South West Amazon). The dividing line indicates the expanding frontier for agriculture and cattle ranching. Deforestation path starts with forest degradation caused by selective timber exploitation and the high incidence of forest fires, followed by the conversion of thousands of square kilometers of savannas (Cerrado) and forests into pastures to feed the cattle, as well as soy, rice and corn plantations. Such occupation pattern is almost always a predatory, unordered and illegal one. It is the result of public policies which were either ill-conceived and/or badly implemented. For example: the lack of land ordering before opening a highway and the existing fiscal incentives to promote agriculture and livestock occupation in a model which is not compatible with environmental sustainability. The 110 PAs located in the Deforestation Arch were incorporated in this analysis every year, according to their creation decrees (57 of them were created after 2000) or to its inclusion in the ARPA program. This analysis disregarded the fact that, in some cases, ARPA supported actions prior to the creation decrees of the PAs; and also that the carried out studies, patrolling and protecting actions could have contributed per se to reduce the deforestation level. Likewise, the PAs creation process can decrease deforestation in the surroundings the process of ordering land occupation and the design of a management plan for the PA have an inhibiting effect upon land grabbing and upon the disregard of environmental legislation.

18 17 Deflorestation Over half of the analyzed PAs (55% of them or 110 protected areas) is situated in the Deforestation Arch. Together, those PAs account for 84% (6,594 sq. km) of total deforested area (7,805 sq. km), within a set of analyzed Amazon PAs. Considering the frequency of PAs in the various extent ranges of deforestation, the forest cover in the non-arpa group is now more protected; however, if referring to the ratio of total deforested area, there is a similar situation in and out of the Deforestation Arch although numbers area slightly lower for those located out of the Arch. The outcome of comparing PAs in and out of the Arch, with and without ARPA support, follows the trend of the biome as a whole, confirming the indication of greater vegetation preservation among the PAs with ARPA support. Chart 5 shows the deforestation path in the PAs located in the Arch and clearly reveals the positive effect of the ARPA Program. The deforestation decrease is much more acute within and around the PAs in the ARPA group than in the PAs without ARPA support. Only 40% of PAs in the Deforestation Arch (table 7) were able to limit forest destruction within the PA to 10 sq. km (totaling 118 sq. km deforested area), while out of the Arch this applies to 58% of the PAs (total deforested area in this range amounts to 148 sq. km). Values are similar for a deforestation range between 10 and 50 sq. km: 28% PAs (784 sq. km) in the Deforestation Arch and 30% (662 sq. km) out of the Arch. When the deforested area is above 50 sq. km, the difference is even more marked: 32% PAs (6,594 sq. km) are located in the Arch and 13% are out of the Arch (1,211 sq. km). Considering the deforestation percentage (table 6), 70% of PAs in the Arch keep deforestation up to 5%, and those out of the Arch represent 76%. In the 5 to 10% range of deforested area, the PAs in the Arch correspond to 13% of total PAs and those out of the Arch to 9%. On the other hand, 17% of PAs in the Arch have more than 10% of the area deforested, in comparison with 15% of PAs out of the Arch. Comparing the ARPA group with the non-arpa group in the Arch of Deforestation, one notices that deforestation areas up 10 sq. km (table 7) are present in 37% PAs with ARPA support (totaling 36 sq. km deforested area) and in 42% PAs without ARPA support (totaling 81 sq. km). Similar values are found in the range of 10 to 50 sq. km of deforested area: 29% of ARPA and 28% of non- ARPA. Featuring deforested areas above 50 sq. km, ARPA PAs are 34% (2,201 sq. km) and non-arpa PAs are 30% (4,393 sq. km). In summary, in the non-arpa group the extent of deforested area of PAs doubles, although the percentage of PAs is lower. An interesting point is that 61% of ARPA PAs with a deforested area of 10 sq. km or less are protected in the scope of state administration. Considering the percentage of the area which is deforested (table 6), and besides the fact that the relative number of PAs supported by ARPA and with 5% or less of deforested area is much higher (90%) than the PAs without ARPA support (58%), what comes to attention the most is the fact that 92% of ARPA PAs located in the Arch were able to keep deforestation below the 10% threshold, and 90% lost only 5% or less of its forest cover. In the non- ARPA group, 75% of PAs were in the 10% range and only 58% in the 5% range (table 6). Only 5% of PAs with ARPA support have more than 10% of deforested area, while in the non-arpa group this frequency is 25%.

19 18 Deflorestation Peaks In the deforestation path in the Arch, the annual increases are usually small among the ARPA PAs (in both strict protection areas and sustainable use reserves). In 2003 and 2004 there were deforestation peaks in Cristalino State Park in Mato Grosso state (97 sq. km were deforested) and in two areas where strict protection areas were later created, both of them in Pará state: Serra do Pardo National Park, created in 2005, lost 93 sq. km during that period; and the Terra do Meio Ecological Station, created in 2005, lost 150 sq. km. In 2001, three other areas in Pará state, where sustainable use reserves were later created, also had deforestation peaks: Terra Grande-Pracuuba (37 sq. km), created in 2006; Arioca-Pruanã (65 sq. km), and Ipaú-Anilzinho (75 sq. km), created in 2005 all of them are Extractive Reserves. In 2003 a peak (176 sq. km) was also registered in the area where the Verde para Sempre Extractive Reserve was created in 2004, also in Pará state. In the group of 35 strict protection areas without ARPA support, the annual deforestation increase is around 20 sq. km. In seven of those areas the annual increase reached 20 to 60 sq. km, concentrated in 2000 and between 2002 and The most severe case was that of Gurupi Biological Reserve, in Maranhão state, where 299 sq. km were devastated during just one year, in There was a similar pattern among the 37 sustainable use PAs without ARPA support and the usual values were up to or below 10 sq. km, although seven PAs had between 10 and 60 sq. km of deforested area. Three of those had peaks ranging between 80 and 122 sq. km and all of them are Extractive Reserves (Tapajós-Arapiuns, in Pará state, 86 sq. km deforested; Quilombo do Frexal, in Maranhão state, 88 sq. km; and Rio Jaci-Paraná, in Rondônia state, 122 sq. km). The peaks were registered predominantly in , and for the last time in Chart 5 Deforestation path within and in the surrounding (10 km) area of PAs, with and without ARPA support, located in the Deforestation Arch Combining criteria, the effect of the scope of administration among ARPA PAs in the Deforestation Arch was also analyzed. Considering area extent (table 7), deforestation up to 10 sq. km is present in 61% of state ARPA PAs (27 sq. km total deforestation) and 17% of federal ARPA PAs (9 sq. km). In the intermediary range (from 10 to 50 sq. km), there is a similar situation among state areas (28% and 153 sq. km) and federal areas (30% and 213 sq. km). Considering the PAs with deforestation beyond 50 sq. km, state ARPA PAs total 11% and federal ARPA PAs correspond to 52%, respectively accounting for 378 sq. km and sq. km. In the percentage of the loss of forest cover in the Arch

20 19 Deflorestation (table 6), the number of PAs with over 5% deforestation in the state ARPA group represents 94% and in the federal ARPA group it represents 87%. In the range of 5 to 10% there are no state PAs; and only one PA has more than 10% deforestation. Just like it happens all over the Brazilian Amazon, in the Deforestation Arch the strict protection areas are more preserved than the sustainable use reserves. This can be verified in terms of the extent and of the percentage of deforested area. The group of PAs having up to 10 sq. km of deforested area corresponds to 45% of strict protection areas (UCPI) and 36% of sustainable use reserves (UCUS); respectively 74 and 44 sq. km total deforested area. In the range of 10 to 50 sq. km deforestation, there is an incidence of 24% strict protection areas and 32% sustainable use PAs. The range of deforestation above 50 sq. km corresponds to 31% of the strict protection areas and 32% of the sustainable use reserves; respectively totaling 3,450 and 3,143 sq. km. In the range of up to 5% of deforested area, strict protection areas feature higher number of PAs (43) and higher percentage (84%) than the sustainable use reserves (34 PAs corresponding to 58%). In the intermediary range (5 to 10%), the strict protection areas meant 6% (3 PAs) versus 19% sustainable use areas (11 PAs). There are 5 PAs (10%) with over 10% deforested area among the strict protection areas and 14 PAs (24%) among the sustainable use reserves. Still in the Arch, the management objective criterion was applied to assess only the PAs with ARPA support. Deforestation in both strict protection areas and sustainable use reserves, with ARPA support and situated in the Arch, have very similar low values. This indicates that both groups are in a good state of conservation and that there is no relevant difference among them. This is unlike the pattern for the Brazilian Amazon as a whole, where deforestation impact in the strict protected areas was smaller. As to the extent, deforested areas up to 10 sq. km are present in 47% of strict protection areas and 27% of sustainable use reserves, with respectively 27 and 9 sq. km of total deforested area, while 16% of strict protection areas and 41% of sustainable use reserves (73 and 293 sq. km) fall in the intermediary range (between 10 and 50 sq. km). As for PAs having more than 50 sq. km of deforestation, the strict protection areas total 37% and the sustainable use reserves total 32% respectively corresponding to 1,365 and 835 sq. km. Referring to the deforested percentage in each protected area in the ARPA group in the Arch, 89% of the strict protection areas and 91% of the sustainable use reserves belong in the range of up to 5% of area being deforested. In the 5 to 10% range and also in the group with over 10% of deforested area, both strict protection areas and sustainable use reserves have similar values (6% of strict protection areas versus 4% of sustainable use reserves in the intermediary range and 5% for both in this range). Juan Pratginestos / WWF-Canon

21 20 Deflorestation PAs having atypical deforestation Ten PAs present atypical deforestation (above 34%, corresponding to twice the standard deviation). Four of them are in Maranhão state, two in Rondonia, one in Pará, one in Tocantins, one in Amazonas state and one in Mato Grosso. They are the following: Quilombo do Frexal Extractive Reserve, in Maranhão state (100% of the area is cleared); Sumaúma State Park, in Amazonas state (99%); Extractive Reserve Extremo Norte in Tocantins state (92%); Mata Grande Extractive Reserve, in Maranhão (87%); Sítio do Rangedor Ecological Station in Maranhão state (85%); Siríaco Extractive Reserve also in Maranhão (71%); Candeias State Park in Rondônia state (59%); Parecis State Park in Rondônia (58%); Utinga State Park in Pará state(38%); Águas Quentes State Park in Mato Grosso (35%). Starting in 2004, a decrease was noticed in the annual deforestation rates. In 2008, the Brazilian government committed to 80% reduction target for Amazon annual deforestation rates by 2020, having as baseline the average rate of deforestation in (chart 6). In 2009, deforestation was curbed to 38% of the base line. The intense creation of protected areas during past years (chart 7) is one of the main factors accounting for deforestation decrease in the Brazilian Amazon. Another important point is that the avoided deforestation by the PAs is not transferred to other places (Soares et al. 2010)4. Deforestation out of the protected areas was 1.7 higher when compared to that of extractive reserves; and it was 20 times more in the comparison with parks (strict protection areas). Likewise, forest fire occurrence was 4 times higher out of protected areas than in the indigenous territories and up to 9 times higher in comparison to national forests (Nepstad et al. 2006)5. Chart 6 Deforestation path in the Brazilian Amazon Deforestation decrease Source: Prodes The decline of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, starting in 2004, partly reflects the effects of the global economic crisis causing a decrease in the demand and lowering the prices of meat and soy in the international market. Credit should also be given to federal government actions to increase efficiency of illegal deforestation con- 4 SOARES-FILHO B.; et al. Role of Brazilian Amazon protected areas in climate mitigation. Proc National Academy of Sciences USA, v. 107, n. 24, p , 15 June Electronic publication on May 26, NEPSTAD, D.; et al. Inhibition of Amazon deforestation and fire by parks and indigenous lands. Conservation Biology. 20, n. 1, p , 2006.

22 21 Deflorestation trol and patrolling, and to the adoption of public policies to fight forest destruction. Nevertheless, as mentioned above, one important factor to decrease deforestation was the intensified creation of protected areas (PAs) and indigenous territories (TIs). Total protected areas were increased to 1.9 million sq. km by 2009 and ARPA Program played a relevant role supporting the creation of new PAs in the Amazon (chart 7). This area corresponds to over half (54%) of the remaining forests in the Brazilian Amazon and storages 56% of its forest carbon (Soares et al ). Brazil therefore accounts for over 55 percent of the global growth in PAs from , almost half of which was from ARPA. In other words, ARPA alone has accounted for more than a quarter of global PA growth in recent years. (World Database on Protected Areas WDPA)7. Chart 7 Evolution in the number of PAs in the Amazon and in ARPA Program according to management objective The identification of environmental requirements for rural properties to access rural credit Brazilian Federal Reserve Bank (Banco Central) Resolution 3545/08 for agricultural use in the Amazon was an important initiative. Another one was the decree # 6321/078, establishing important measures: identification of priority municipal districts to fight deforestation; a renewed, compulsory registration of rural properties in those prioritized municipal districts, as part of the land property and environmental regulation; embargo of the use of illegally deforested areas, with the consequent prohibition to trade products originating in those areas; penalties for those breaking this embargo along the production line (Lima et al. 2008). Recommendations To clearly establish the effectiveness of protected areas and of ARPA Program in preventing deforestation, a periodical monitoring of the PAs system and of ARPA s management should be established, with the continued use of the data base built for this study and of the deforestation analyses of PAs deforestation. 6 SOARES-FILHO B.; et al. Role of Brazilian Amazon protected areas in climate mitigation. Proc National Academy of Sciences USA, v. 107, n. 24, p , June Electronically published on May 26, World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA - Statistics.aspx). 8 LIMA, A.; et al. Desmatamento na Amazônia: medidas e efeitos do Decreto Federal 6.321/07 (Deforestation in the Amazon: measures and effects of federal decree 6.321/07). Belém: Ipam, p.

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