CARRIERS AND ETHERNET SERVICES, PUBLIC ETHERNET IN METRO

Transcription

1 CARRIERS AND ETHERNET SERVICES, PUBLIC ETHERNET IN METRO AND WIDE AREA NETWORKS JULY 2012 PO Box 34 Mountain Lakes, New Jersey USA phone

2 What follows is an excerpt from s 166-page report. For more information, please go to Pricing Information: Hard Copy Price $ 3995 Electronic Copy Price $ 4695 Single-User Printable PDF $ Seat Printable PDF $ 10,000 Unlimited Corporate-Wide Distribution The contents of this study represent our analysis of the information generally available to the public or released by responsible individuals in the companies mentioned. It does not contain information provided in confidence by our clients. Since much of the information in the study is based on a variety of sources that we deem to be reliable, including subjective estimates and analyst opinion, The INSIGHT Research Corporation does not guarantee the accuracy of the contents and assumes no liability for inaccurate source materials. Copyright 2012 by The INSIGHT Research Corporation. All Rights Reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, prior to written permission of the publisher.

3 CHAPTER I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Public Ethernet INSIGHT s use of the term public Ethernet refers to any Layer 2 public network carrier service that extends Ethernet beyond the LAN (local area network) and connects to customers across Ethernet interfaces. Public Ethernet may be marketed as transparent or native LAN, Ethernet, gigabit Ethernet, GigE, metro Ethernet, Ethernet private line (EPL), Ethernet virtual private line (EVPL), Layer 2 virtual private network (VPN), Ethernet access, VPLS (virtual private LAN service), or a variety of other names. INSIGHT s definition does not, however, include routed Layer 3 IP-VPN services, which also can be described as carrying IP (Internet protocol) over Ethernet. Our use of the phrase public Ethernet services includes relatively longstanding, upgraded, legacy transparent or native LAN services, whether asynchronous transfer mode (ATM)-based within the network core or using an Ethernet over fiber or a synchronous optical network (SONET) architecture. Our definition also includes newer services from small and large carriers that variously deliver end-to-end Ethernet directly over optical fiber, encapsulate Ethernet packets over SONET, or transmit it over dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) wavelengths or over multi-protocol label switching (MPLS) backbones Definitions: Public vs. Carrier Ethernet The Metro Ethernet Forum (MEF), the major industry trade and standards group developing and advocating for enhanced public Ethernet services, promotes the term Carrier Ethernet to refer to Ethernet services with advanced and standardized attributes. INSIGHT Research has adopted the term "Public Ethernet" rather than "Carrier Ethernet" by way of contrast in order to project the market for all Ethernet services more broadly. Chapter I Reproduction without permission 1

4 The MEF classification excludes longstanding 1990s-originated Native and Transparent LAN services lacking QoS (quality of service) and other required "Carrier Ethernet" features. INSIGHT, on the other hand, includes such services in our review of the market and in our market projections. Most of these services have in any case been upgraded with QoS and other more advanced features. 1.2 Market Segmentation The US Ethernet market can be segmented and revenue estimates calculated as INSIGHT has in this updated report in various ways: By Topology: o EPL o E-LAN o EVPL By Regional Domain o Metro o Wide Area o Ethernet Access By Type of Sale o Retail o Wholesale By Bandwidth Level o greater than one Gbit/s (1,000 Mbit/s) o greater than 100 Mbit/s up to and including one Gbit/s o greater than 10 Mbit/s up to and including 100 Mbit/s o up to and including 10 Mbit/s Chapter I Reproduction without permission 2

5 US Carrier Ethernet Total Port Estimates by Throughput o greater than one Gbit/s (1,000 Mbit/s) o greater than 100 Mbit/s up to and including one Gbit/s o greater than 10 Mbit/s up to and including 100 Mbit/s o up to and including 10 Mbit/s Table I-1 delineates the characteristics of various Ethernet services. Table I-1 Characteristics of Ethernet Service Varieties Topology EPL (E-line) EVPL (E-line) E-LAN Configuration Point-to-point (though can also be configured as hub and spoke) Point-to-multipoint (hub and spoke) or point-to-point Multipoint-to-multipoint, but can link two points Bandwidth Dedicated bandwidth Shared bandwidth Shared bandwidth Switching None Typically switched Switched Pricing Premium price when over Sonet; lower per unit over DWDM Cost varies w/sla and how used, typically well below Sonet-based EPL Reliability High w/sonet Varies by SLA Structurally Resembles Private line Frame relay LAN Ideal Platform SONET MPLS MPLS Key Advantages Characteristic Applications With SONET, high reliability, availability, security, SONET capabilities Access, wholesale, bulk data transfer, back-up, BCDR, SANs, data centers. Less costly; can segment bandwidth at varying QoS/SLA levels Access; operational connectivity; wholesale Typically lowest-cost per location; varies w/sla levels Historically, often best-effort; new service much higher with most current SLAs Any-to-any connectivity; low TCO per port LAN extension; L2 VPN; peer-to-peer operational connectivity Note: SLA = Service Level Agreement Chapter I Reproduction without permission 3

6 1.3 Market Trends Ethernet's rapid growth continues relatively unabated with only very gradual slowing projected in the out years driven by the contemporary information economy's demand for huge and fast-growing increments of capacity in the face of resource constraints and the absence of competitive technologies that do what Ethernet does better and cheaper. Ethernet's appeal is fundamentally that it can support ever more demanding requirements of an increasingly information-based economy and society on a more economical and flexible basis than alternative services. Inexorable progression toward higher bandwidth levels crosses application and vertical end-user categories, both as demands for communications transmission capacity escalate and as the cost and efficiency advantages of Ethernet as a service rise dramatically at higher bandwidth levels. At the same time, the newer 40 and 100 gigabit/second Ethernet (GigE) bandwidth levels still have not become significant presences, slowed largely by still-high equipment costs. However, the 100 GigE services are projected to gain significant momentum in the latter part of the forecast period. Major horizontal application categories driving the Ethernet bandwidth explosion across the market include cloud computing, video and imaging transmissions, mobile data, social networking, data storage and replication, data center consolidation and cost optimization, and collaborative applications more broadly. Ethernet adoption is increasingly diversifying both across market sectors generally and down-market, beyond verticals that have long dominated Ethernet purchasing though the latter continue to account for the majority of retail Ethernet sales. Public Ethernet will inevitably see substantial and continuous broadening of both applications and its end-user base as it progressively encompasses an ever-larger proportion of the communications market. The service is increasingly used by virtually all businesses and a huge percentage of the consumers for virtually everything touching the information economy and personal communications this despite the significant range of specialized vertical Chapter I Reproduction without permission 4

7 applications for which Ethernet had been known. Even though the proportion of Ethernet use accounted for by the big user verticals such as finance and healthcare will dip gradually over time, usage growth in those high-intensity verticals is also escalating dramatically, and these vertical's requirements will continue to drive Ethernet expansion. Cellular backhaul particularly has also driven the market with continued high double-digit growth rates supporting huge bandwidth demands for data mobility growing from the smartphone explosion and the conversion of data cell sites to Ethernet from TDM. However, this fastest-growing portion of the US Ethernet market is approaching an inflection point that will moderate its growth downward fairly suddenly, probably beginning this year, as a large of US cell sites proportion (approaching 50 percent) have already converted to Ethernet in the boom of the past three years, containing future growth. Wholesale Ethernet more broadly, both "sell-to," like cell backhaul and to webbased providers, as well as "sell-through" (forecast in this report explicitly as wholesale), has been seeing market-leading growth, corresponding to increasing market emphasis on interoperability and partnership as Ethernet has become an increasingly mainstream service, and as carriers try to provide the ubiquitous coverage customers increasingly demand from the service that they can't do solely on their own. Ethernet is meanwhile increasingly also becoming the default wireline data access method, a process more advanced in Europe and east Asia than the US, where SONET is better established. At the same time buyer confidence in Ethernet has dramatically increased, there is also widespread market confusion, especially within the huge category of relatively new service customers. The MEF's new "CE 2.0" initiative appears to be increasing both confidence and confusion. The confusion has been generated by the new terms, concepts and a new enhanced certification process associated with CE 2.0 as it spotlights three key new areas targeted for improvement: Service assurance in the guise of improvements to Operations, Administration and Maintenance (OAM) capabilities, interoperability (E-NNI) and multiple CoS Chapter I Reproduction without permission 5

8 (Classes of Service). Ethernet 2.0, launched as an initiative by the trade group and technology pioneer Bob Metcalfe in February 2012, can best be viewed as an industry-based effort to maintain rapid growth and prevent it from stalling out by highlighting the service's improved capabilities, making it hopefully increasingly attractive both to the range of customers that have not yet adopted it as well as those that have already, at least to some degree. One of CE 2.0's three key pillars, OAM capabilities have matured and will continue do so, bolstering customer confidence in Ethernet's reliability and service quality transparency. OAM standards particularly facilitate greater performance monitoring of the variables in SLAs, which have become more common and will become a virtual market requirement on an end-to-end basis over the next few years. Interoperability also continues to be a primary focus of attention, with increased use of bi-lateral external network-to-network interface (E-NNI) agreements between provider pairs, for which the MEF finally promulgated its first formal standard in The influence of this standard remains to be seen, however, as many carriers continue to operate under "pre-standards" agreements. But E-NNIs, virtual or official, whether pre-standards or to the new standard, are undeniably helping competitors extend much more extensively into each other's footprints. Interconnectivity between providers has increasingly become a marketplace expectation, evolving from the market environment of a few years ago in which Ethernet service was largely provided within isolated single-carrier service islands. Increased interconnection facilitates expanded service availability and therefore more competition, thus more choices, better features and lower prices over time, as more providers can offer services in more places. After a great deal of publicity at the time of their initial emergence in , Carrier Ethernet Exchanges (CEEs) meanwhile have remained a smaller influence on the market than anticipated. Although Ethernet availability has gradually improved, it remains a chronic limiting factor. The availability of Ethernet service over fiber, copper and the MSOs' HFC (multiple systems operators') (hybrid fiber coax) plant has increased steadily and will continue to do so, but it remains nowhere near ubiquitous. Chapter I Reproduction without permission 6

9 Developments like enhanced interoperability, improved OAM, expanded footprints and reliability, and a broadening market realization of Ethernet's maturity as a service are eroding to a modest degree the advantages of wellestablished dominant players with well-known brands. The growing maturity of the services is giving potential customers a greater sense services will be handled adequately even by an Ethernet service provider with which they are unfamiliar. The market's stronger growth will be in switched Ethernet using multipoint topologies: firstly E-LAN, which will have the strongest growth arc into the future; and secondarily EVPL. Both E-LAN and EVPL will often depend upon MPLS. EPL will also continues to grow and form a large part of the market, due to its central role in high-bandwidth wavelength-based services, in access, and in wholesale. However, INSIGHT s analysis suggests that EVPL over switched infrastructure will gain a steadily increasing share when compared to EPL. Pricing remains extremely variable, with the overall pattern relatively stable, averaging single-digit annual declines. Price pressures will be most dependent upon the specific competitive situation though broadly speaking it will be greater between and within Tier One cities, in the long haul, and in wholesale at high bandwidth levels. The SME market will also seen increasing price pressure at lower bandwidth levels, especially with intensification of competitive effort by MSOs. Pricing levels will continue to be all over the map, varying wildly by competitive intensity even by individual downtown building, and by a broad range of factors that often seem to make it hard to form realistic pricing expectations. Ethernet services will be increasingly refined in the coming years and increasingly widespread with expanded capabilities. Applications will multiply. Hybrid networking, especially between Layers Two and Three (IP-based) services, will become important to more players. Bandwidth speeds will be grow steadily higher. New bandwidth speeds will be adopted, largely in the coming years through a leapfrog of larger customers to 100 Gbit/s. There will be a greater focus on applications-aware networking strategies, giving customers greater ability to prioritize their own applications and more control generally of their applications environment. Greater service quality transparency will come with improved OAM, increasingly using Web portals but often, instead or in addition to Chapter I Reproduction without permission 7

10 portals, direct data feeds into customer systems. There will also be increasing adoption of bandwidth on demand and real-time provisioning features. 1.4 Ethernet Market Forecast As shown in Figure I-1, total US public Ethernet revenues grew from $3.2 billion in 2010 to a projected $5 billion in 2012, and are projected to more than double over the forecast period to over $11 billion in 2017 at a CAGR of 17 percent. Figure I-1 Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, ($Millions) $12,000 $10,000 $Millions $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ Ethernet revenues continue to grow in response to increasing data bandwidth demands and the service's TCO (total cost of ownership) advantages in providing high and flexible bandwidth at relatively low costs with flexibility and scalability superior to that of competitive data services. A specific factor contributing to particularly rapid growth over the last few years, and continuing, but starting in the coming year to moderate, is the large-scale "mass migration" of wireless backhaul cell sites from TDM to Ethernet, along with the vast growth of mobile data attendant on the smartphone explosion, which is Chapter I Reproduction without permission 8

11 particularly bolstering growth in the metro area and at moderate (>10 Mbit/s Mbit/s) bandwidth levels. Growth is generally moderating gradually, though still very strong, coming off Ethernet's recent early growth phase. The service has seen in recent years increasing and more various service availability, widening extension of fiber connectivity, increasing deployment of copper and HFC as alternative transmission media, rising consciousness of public Ethernet generally, technical improvements and standards developments, and broadly rising customer confidence in the service's potentials, interconnectivity and reliability. Over the forecast period through 2017, Ethernet revenue growth will slow on a percentage basis due to an expanded base, the conversion of most US cell sites to Ethernet service, chronic intermittent price pressures particularly at higher bandwidth levels, in connection with creation of new bandwidth levels, and in highly competitive situations as well as overall limits on the total volume of data spending in the US market, especially as Ethernet becomes an ever-larger portion of the that market as legacy services such as private line and frame relay continue to decline. Chapter I Reproduction without permission 9

12 CARRIERS AND ETHERNET SERVICES, PUBLIC ETHERNET IN METRO AND WIDE AREA NETWORKS TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Public Ethernet Definitions: Public vs. Carrier Ethernet Market Segmentation Market Trends Ethernet Market Forecast...8 Chapter II BACKGROUND & INTRODUCTION The Emergence of Public Ethernet The Ubiquity of Ethernet Ethernet Services: Building Blocks User Network Interface Ethernet Virtual Connection Service Throughput Parameters Performance Quality Parameters Bandwidth Profile Ethernet Topologies: E-line vs. E-LAN E-Line E-LAN Other Typologies: Dedicated vs. Switched The Broader Data Networking Context Packet Data Networking Ethernet and SONET Resilient Packet Ring The Public Ethernet Concept "Carrier Ethernet" vs. "Public Ethernet" Ethernet Segments Defined...37 Table of Contents Reproduction without permission i

13 2.6 The MEF and Carrier Ethernet s Five Attributes Service Standardization Scalability Service Management Reliability Quality of Service Public Ethernet Pricing Fundamentals Costs Beyond Service Pricing: The Real Deal Examples of Basic Public Ethernet Applications LAN Extension Layer 2 Virtual Private Network Dedicated Internet Access (DIA) The Case For and Against Public Ethernet Ethernet s Drivers Advantages of Public Ethernet Service Adoption Inhibitors Evolving Industry Structure/Market Players Industry Consolidation: The Market Context MSOs Emergent Provider Strategies: Incumbent vs. Challenger Issues in Partnership and Collaboration The Retail Customer Perspective The Current Market Context Public Ethernet Grows While General Market Declines Effects of Economic Slowdown...73 The Chapter III Trends & Markets Ethernet Growth Continues Unabated Ethernet Access Moves Toward Dominance The Global Context Bandwidth Demands Intensify, Levels Rise Yet New Top Ethernet Bandwidth Levels Lie Fallow, For Now Applications and End-Users Clearly, The Cloud Ethernet Diversifies Down-Market, But Top Verticals Stay Strong Cellular Backhaul Nears Inflection Point Wholesale Gains Generally After Early Lag...84 Table of Contents Reproduction without permission ii

14 3.4 Topology: Any to Any Switched Ethernet Pacing Long-Term Growth Increasing Market Confidence in Ethernet Despite Confidence, Market Confusion Rife MEF's Ethernet 2.0: Confidence Builder, Head-Scratcher Ethernet OAM Enhancing Reliability, Transparency Intensified Market Focus on Interoperability Availability Remains Problematic, Fiber Keeps Lead Hybrid Networking - Beyond Ethernet Pricing Varies Across Map, on "Average" Mild Declines The Competitive Outlook Public Ethernet Expanding In the Long Haul, and Short International Growth as North America Catches Up From Thirty Thousand Feet: The Market in Three Years The Chapter IV SERVICE PROVIDER PROFILES AT&T Corporation Network Architecture Services Offered Cogent Communications Network Architecture Services Offered Cox Cable Network Services Offered Level 3 Communications, Inc Network Architecture Services Offered Optimum Lightpath Network Architecture Services Offered Reliance Globalcom Network Services Offered tw telecom Network Architecture Services Offered Verizon Communications Table of Contents Reproduction without permission iii

15 4.8.1 Network Architecture Services Offered The Chapter V MARKET FORECASTS Methodology Definitions and Forecast Segmentation Definitions Segmentation Market Forecasts Total Market Market by Topology Market by Regional Domain Retail vs. Wholesale Market Forecasts By Bandwidth Level Appendix GLOSSARY Table of Contents Reproduction without permission iv

16 Table of Figures The Chapter I I-1 Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, ($Millions)...8 Chapter II II-1 User Network Interface...15 II-2 Frame Loss...18 II-3 E-Line Point-to-Point Service Type...20 II-4 E-LAN Multipoint-to-Multipoint Service Type...23 II-5 Typical IP Network...29 II-6 Managed Packet Network, Virtual Private Line...30 II-7 Resilient Packet Ring Technology...35 II-8 LAN Extension Using E-LAN Services...47 II-9 Illustration of VLAN Tag Support...48 II-10 Dedicated Internet Access...52 Chapter V V-1 Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, ($Millions) V-2 US Public Ethernet Private Line Service Revenues, ($Millions) V-3 US Public Ethernet Virtual Private Line Service Revenues ($Millions) V-4 US Public Ethernet E-LAN Service Revenues, ($Millions) V-5 Metro Ethernet Revenues, ($Millions) V-6 Long-Haul Ethernet Revenues, ($Millions) V-7 US Public Ethernet Access Revenues, ($Millions) V-8 US Retail Public Ethernet Revenues, ($Millions) V-9 US Wholesale Public Ethernet Revenues ($Millions) V-10 US Public Ethernet Revenues > 1 Gbit/s, ($Millions) V-11 US Public Ethernet Revenues >100Mbit/s 1Gbit/s, ($Millions) V-12 US Public Ethernet Revenues >10Mbit/s 100Mbit/s, ($Millions) V-13 US Public Ethernet Revenues <=10Mbit/s, ($Millions) Table of Contents Reproduction without permission v

17 Table of Tables The Chapter I I-1 Characteristics of Ethernet Service Varieties...3 Chapter II II-1 SONET and Ethernet Defined Transmission Rates...32 II-2 Characteristics of Ethernet Service Varieties...39 II-3 Comparative Strengths of Layer 2 and Layer 3 VPNs...49 Chapter IV IV-1 AT&T Ethernet Services Offers IV-2 tw Telecom s Native LAN Ethernet Products Chapter V V-1 Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, ($Millions) V-2 US Public Ethernet Private Line Service Revenues, ($Millions) V-3 US Public Ethernet Virtual Private Line Service Revenues ($Millions) V-4 US Public Ethernet E-LAN Service Revenues, ($Millions) V-5 US Public Ethernet Revenues by Topology, ($Millions) V-6 Percentage US Public Ethernet Revenues by Topology, V-7 Metro Ethernet Revenues, ($Millions) V-8 Long-Haul Ethernet Revenues, ($Millions) V-9 US Public Ethernet Access Revenues, ($Millions) V-10 US Public Ethernet Revenues by Regional Domain, ($Millions) V-11 US Public Ethernet Revenues, Percentages by Regional Domain, V-12 US Retail Public Ethernet Revenues, ($Millions) V-13 US Wholesale Public Ethernet Revenues ($Millions) V-14 US Public Ethernet Revenues by Retail/Wholesale ($Millions) V-15 US Public Ethernet Revenues, Percentages by Retail/Wholesale, V-16 US Public Ethernet Revenues > 1 Gbit/s, ($Millions) V-17 US Public Ethernet Revenues >100Mbit/s 1Gbit/s, ($Millions) Table of Contents Reproduction without permission vi

18 V-18 US Public Ethernet Revenues >10Mbit/s 100Mbit/s, ($Millions) V-19 US Public Ethernet Revenues <=10Mbit/s, ($Millions) V-20 US Public Ethernet Revenues by Bandwidth Level, ($Millions) V-21 Percentage Revenues by Throughput Level, V-22 US Public Ethernet Total Port Estimates by Throughput, The Table of Contents Reproduction without permission vii