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1 On April 20, 2010, the explosion of the BP Deepwater Horizon oil drilling platform, located 90 km offshore in the Mississippi Canyon, caused a 87-day blowout of the Macondo well. During this period, crude oil flowed into the Gulf of Mexico from a water depth of 1520 m. The question turned at very first it was about the dispersion and fate of the crude oil. v=pe-1g_476na&feature=player_embed This NOAA model shows where oil may be likely to travel, thereby giving information about potential threats of shoreline impacts. This kind of information should assist in the preparation of preparedness and combating measures.

2 George Zodiatis R. Lardner, H. Radhakrishnan, X. Panayidou, E. Georgoudis, L. Perivoliotis, M. De Dominicis, N. Pinardi, A. Nicolaides and MEDESS-4MS partnership THE ROYAL APOLLONIA HOTEL November 2014, Limassol, Cyprus

3 Outlines S Copernicus marine service S Motivation for operational oil spill predictions S MEDESS-4MS S MEDEXPOL 2013 S R.A. for Offshore Platforms S Conclusions

4 Marine Service General aims of the OCEAN component of Copernicus : a) Produce regular and systematic information on the state of the oceans-analyses and forecasts, on global and for regional European Seas. b) The products should be observational and model data, available in RT. GMES input data Customized end user informaaon End User USER GMES satellite & in situ networks DATA DATA Production of Ocean observations, analysis and SYSTEM Forecasts (Models) SERVICE Intermediate Users Downstream Service: APPLICATIONS oil spill prediction Public or private USER USER USER Inputs from other data sources USER Marine Service informaaon

5 provides a dynamic 3D vision of the Ocean Currents Ice Temperature Sea Level Biogeochemical Salinity ü ü ü ü ANYWHERE (Global + 6 Regional Seas) FROM THE TOP TO THE BOTTOM AT ANY TIME (past, present, future) REAL TIME or PAST PERIOD

6 Motivation for Supporting Marine Safety Map with ship accidents: more than 4 ships per Ship density: One of the permanent risk from an incident at sea, is associated with the traffic of maritime transport and with the operation of coastal and offshore installations related to oil and gas industry. 3 Such a dense activity imposes on the countries the need for response in cases of major incidents. Particularly for Mediterranean sea, which constitute the 15% of the world maritime navigation. An incident like this may occur Response to an oil incident: oil combating vessel 4 5 The Contingency Plans require the application of oil spill models Response to oil incident: booms deployment The catastrophe

7 As from REMPEC, the agencies need an integrated service...to strengthen the response chain for accidental spills and deliberate discharges from ships. Modified from Cristina Farchi

8 Motivation for Supporting Marine Safety The success of response to oil spill incidents depends at first on the operational prediction of the movement and weathering of the oil spills. Such predictions may be obtained through the application of oil spill models to forecast: S Where the oil spill will move S How soon it will get there S Which resources are threatened S What will be its state when it arrives The first 3 questions are the more critical for effective support of the response agencies to combat the spills, and depend completely on reliable sea currents, winds, waves. For the 4th question a reliable fate algorithm is required.

9 MEDESS 4MS S S is dedicated to the maritime risks prevention and strengthening of maritime safety related to oil spill pollution in the Mediterranean. provides an integrated operational multi model oil spill prediction service in the entire region, connected to existing monitoring platforms (EMSA-CSN, REMPEC), using the well established oil spill modeling systems and the data from the MS/national oceanographic forecasting systems. Sea Wave providers REMPEC I n t e r f a c e Wind providers MOTHY MEDSLIK POSEIDON User REMPEC & Public EMSA External MONGOOS EMSA ESA

10 MEDESS4MS Partners 2% 2% 2% 2% 5% 3% 4% 5% 7% 3% 2% 7% 6% 10% 11% 12% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% DMS OC- UCY MF Puertos del Estado UIB- IMEDEA Innovamar ICM - CSIC INGV ITCG Port Authority of Algeciras Bay LUISS REMPEC IOI- Malta HCMR IASA Port Organisation of Heraklion Maritime Safety Deparment of Montenegro Cedre DAC IFREMER CNR

11 MEDESS-4MS oil spill models Geographical deployment of the oil spill models MEDSLIK MOTHY MEDSLIK POSEIDON MEDSLIK The geographical area of the service covers the Mediterranean, based on the experhse of the MEDESS4MS partners in their areas of responsibility. MEDESS-4MS was build on experience gained in the frame of EU projects by maturing the pre-cursor services to an integrated structured service for all the countries in the Mediterranean, and to major key end-users, such as REMPEC and EMSA.

12 MEDESS-4MS forcing data for the oil spill predictions Coupling with a variety of environmetal data The MEDESS-4MS oil spill service coupled with the oceanographic data from the MCS, the downloaded MS national ocean forecasting systems and the oil slick data from existing platforms (EMSA-CSN, REMPEC, MS VTMIS HF-radars and AIS data). S 9 different Mediterranean institutions and centers are providing marine and atmospheric forecasting data in real time. S 28 different forecasting data sets are available RT. MEDESS-4MS Oceanographic forecasting systems (14) MEDESS-4MS Atmospheric forecasting systems (7) MEDESS-4MS Sea state (waves) forecasting systems (7)

13 The multi model approach MEDESS-4MS service connect 3 well established oil spill models with 28 different ocean and wind forecasting systems. Common specifications for all the modules of the system: Oil spill models: S Common input/output files Atmospheric/Marine forecasting data: S Common specifications for file naming S Common naming of all the parameters S Common format of the provided files S Common protocols for data exchange S Common rolling archive for keeping history of the results MEDESS-4MS implemented the homogenization of all the data flow in the system via the NDR, connecting all the available operational environmental forcing in the Mediterranean.

14 Network Data Repository -NDR The Network Data Repository is a core component of the MEDESS-4MS oil spill prediction system. Its main function is the integration of the oil spill models with the different oceanographic data providers. Its secondary function is to catalogue the different oil spill events using the system for historical needs.

15 MEDESS4MS User Interface

16 MEDESS-4MS Oil spill in the Levantine Basin Oil spill model: POSEIDON OSM Date of event: 31/5/2014 Simulation length (hours): 148 Use of the same oil spill model with 2 different data set OCEAN data METEO data WAVES data CYCOFOS AEG LEV (2 2 km) Skiron (5 5 km) CYCOFOS WAM4 (5 5 km) Higher resolution forcing data OCEAN data METEO data MFS ( km) ECMWF (25 25 km) WAVES data INGV WWIII ( km) Lower resolution forcing data

17 MEDESS-4MS Oil spill offshore in the Ionian Sea Date of event : 28/5/2014 Continuous release of oil for 48 hours after the initial incident. Simulation length (hours): 148 Use of same data set with 2 MEDESS-4MS oil spill models Oil spill model: POSEIDON OSM Oil spill model: MEDSLIK OCEAN data METEO data WAVES data MFS ( km) ECMWF (25 25 km) INGV WWIII ( km)

18 MEDESS4MS -Example of 24h forward & backward predictions using EMSA - CSN ESA images Levantine ESA oil slicks detection and MEDSLIK 24h predictions. White: initial oil slick position: 0h (date/time of observation) Dark green: forecast +24h Black: backward -24h

19 Oil spill model : MEDSLIK Date of event : 9/12/2012 Simulation length (hours): 1200 (50 days) MEDESS-4MS MEDEXPOL 2013 surface oil spill prediction oil spill prediction at subsurface oil spill prediction at coast Subsurface oil spills plume prediction Oil Fate parameters, evolution in time: oil spill at sea surface, oil evaporated, dispersed in the water column and oil spill reached on coast.

20 Risk Assessment for offshore platform in the Levantine Basin Oil spill prediction from June September, as average for the years planned locations in the Levantine Basin First impact from offshore platform in the Levantine

21 Risk Assessment for the offshore platform in the Levantine Basin Surface oil spill dispersion from June - September for years The oil fate and coastal length for the worst scenario from the location 10.

22 Conclusion a The role of the MEDESS-4MS and particularly of the MEDSLIK oil spill model becomes important for RAOP and for assisting the response agencies, in view of the hydrocarbon exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean. MEDSLIK oil spill prediction from a hypothetical oil spills from the Aphroditi well : oil spill predictions from 1 30/5/12.

23 Conclusion b MEDESS4-MS and the MEDSLIK oil spill model will continue to assist the response agencies, in view of the increase of the ship traffic in the region, due to the hydrocarbon exploration. Possible oil spills detected by SAR data in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 Zodiatis, G. and Lardner, R. and Solovyov, D. and Panayidou, X. and De Dominicis, M. (2012). "Predictions for oil slicks detected from satellite images using MyOcean forecasting data". Ocean Science, Volume 8, Pages

24 Thank you for your attention

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