Analysys Mason s expertise in broadband and next-generation networks (NGNs)

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1 Capability overview Analysys Mason s expertise in broadband and next-generation networks (NGNs)

2 Selected projects on broadband and NGN [1] 2 Business case for FTTC and FTTH in Europe (2008) Business case for FTTC (2008) Study of offers supporting sub-loop unbundling in Europe (2007) Business case for FTTH for incumbents and alternative operators (2007) Business case for VDSL in a European country (2007) Global operator Investment bank Fixed alternative network operator in Western Europe Western European fixed incumbent European alternative operator We are helping a global operator to develop its fixed broadband strategy by modelling the business case for FTTC and FTTH in a number of European markets. Our work is being used to inform our client s commercial and regulatory strategy. For an investment bank, Analysys Mason analysed the investment opportunity for an FTTC network. We calculated the revenue, opex and capex for the network for a number of different scenarios. We assessed the incremental cashflows which would be generated by the incumbent if it was to build the network. Our report was used by the bank to decide whether or not to invest in the network, and who to partner with if it did invest. For the largest fixed alternative network operator in a Western European country, we undertook a study of duct access, dark fibre access and co-mingling products available in support of sub-loop unbundling offers in European countries. Since the roll-out of sub-loop unbundling was still in its early stages in Europe, we relied on interviews with our extensive network of contacts in NRAs as much as on desk research. We produced a report suitable for presentation to the relevant NRA. For a major Western European fixed incumbent, we evaluated the business case for FTTH and FTTB for the incumbent and alternative operators, including how the availability and pricing of wholesale products (including from public initiatives) impacts each operator. For an alternative operator in Europe, we investigated the business case for VDSL deployment. We identified under which deployment scenarios the incumbent s plans would represent a viable business case. We then assessed the potential for the alternative operator to deploy services at the sub-loop level, again identifying the scenarios in which the business case was the most viable. The outputs from the project have been used by the operator to assess future network investments and support its submissions to the NRA.

3 Selected projects on broadband and NGN [2] 3 Business case for sub-loop unbundling in the Netherlands (2006) Strategic advice on the development of a next-generation network for Singapore (2006) FibreSpeed a next-generation open access network for Wales ( ) OPTA (Dutch regulator) IDA (Singapore regulator) Welsh Assembly Government For OPTA, we investigated the business case for alternative providers using sub-loop unbundling (at the street cabinet). This was in the context of the incumbent s plans to decommission its local exchanges when deploying its NGN. We established under which strategies and conditions the alternative providers could construct a viable business case. For the Infocomm Development Authority (IDA) in Singapore, Analysys Mason provided strategic consultancy support on the Next Generation National Broadband Network (NGNBN). We undertook in-country market research in Japan, Korea, China and Hong Kong to investigate NGN strategies and the role of government in stimulating such investment. We then developed a detailed cost model for deploying the NGNBN in Singapore, looking at different technologies and network architectures. We considered a range of different operational structures for the NGNBN and possible procurement strategies. We also developed a wholesale pricing modelling framework to investigate the different combinations of rate of return required by private sector investors and different levels of government support. We presented our recommendations to the Ministry of Finance, which helped to progress the project through to procurement design. Analysys Mason was also involved in designing a "Request for Concept" paper which resulted in over 30 private sector firms expressing interest in participating in the NGNBN, and provided ongoing support on procurement scope and potential bidder strategies. For the past three years Analysys Mason has been advising the Welsh Assembly Government on its FibreSpeed initiative. This landmark project has covered all aspects of public sector intervention in NGA, including strategic objectives and requirements analysis; options analysis; market research; cost/benefit analysis; business planning; financing; business case development; state aid; considerations for public sector aggregation; engaging with industry; technical analysis; and procurement design, implementation and evaluation (Competitive Dialogue process).this project was acknowledged as a welldesigned intervention in the joint DTI-Ofcom document Public Broadband Schemes, A Best Practice Guide published in February 2007.

4 Selected projects on broadband and NGN [3] 4 Assessment of potential interventions for broadband in Wales (2006) Benchmarking of local loop costs (2005) Assessing the opportunity for wireless in an NGN world (2007) Welsh Assembly Government Alternative fixed operator Investor For the Welsh Assembly Government, we investigated a wide range of potential interventions to promote the deployment of 'second generation broadband'services across Wales. We analysed current and expected future supply and demand at the level of the exchange (central office), considering a range of technology options including FTTH, FTTC and WiMAX. We also identified which exchanges would be likely to be unbundled in Wales, based on an analysis of NPV. We made recommendations to our client on how best to proceed given our expectations for future supply and demand. Our deliverables included a detailed options analysis following Office of Government Commerce (OGC) business planning guidelines. For an alternative operator in a Western European country relying on local loop unbundling, we compiled and analysed information on the charges for access to LLUB facilities in 12 EU countries, including setting up co-location facilities and providing tie cables. By understanding the range and scope of the services provided in each country, we were able to make a like-for-like comparison of the charges made. We also assessed the methodology used to derive the charges and made use of an interview programme with regulators and operators across Europe. Our findings provided our client with a better understanding of the areas in which improvements may be reasonably sought in regulation of LLUB in its own country. We prepared a report, which was submitted to the national regulator in support of our client s case. For a technology investor, we considered the prospects of a new wireless technology by considering current and future broadband platforms (ADSL2+, VDSL/FTTC, cable and FTTH). We developed a detailed geographical demand and supply model with a resolution of 2km x 2km across the whole of the UK, to estimate the size of the potential addressable market.

5 Selected projects on broadband and NGN [4] 5 Helping the BBC to gain approval for iplayer (2007) Advice on net neutrality including European and US perspectives (2007) Future bandwidth requirements for the BSG (2006) Study of next-generation access for Ofcom (2005) Broadcaster Broadcaster Government advisory body Ofcom (UK regulator) We assisted the BBC in gaining approval for iplayer by quantifying the potential market impact of on-demand services on the UK broadband market. We examined a range of online on-demand propositions, including both streaming and download-and-store features. As part of the work, we made forecasts of Internet usage trends in the UK for the next five years. For a major UK public service broadcaster we produced a paper on net neutrality, covering the background on the issue, the US perspective, the European perspective, and commercial and technical issues involved. We also made recommendations for our client on how it should position itself in the net neutrality debate. For the Broadband Stakeholder Group in the UK (the Government's key advisory group on Broadband), we forecast bandwidth requirements by household in the UK for 2008 and This project involved the analysis of individual application usage and bandwidth requirements (both upstream and downstream). Our work was well received by the Executive group of the BSG, which includes high-level representatives of BT, Ofcom, the BBC, the DTI and other organisations active in the UK broadband market. As an input to the Next Generation Access review, we provided a comprehensive view of Broaderband Britain, encompassing key next generation broadband initiatives across the UK, encompassing both public sector interventions and those by telecoms operators and ISPs, property developers, and new entrant players using WiFi and WiMAX.

6 1 Analysys Mason Pte Ltd #10-02 Robinson Centre 61 Robinson Road Singapore Tel: Fax: Ref:

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