CREDIT UNIVERSITY. March 13, 2015
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- Lewis Berry
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1 CREDIT UNIVERSITY March 13, 2015
2 CREDIT UNIVERSITY Outline Ford Credit Strategic Value, Virtuous Circle and Value Proposition Scope of Operations Ford Credit Business Model and the Drivers of the Business Originate: Buy it Right Service: Operate Efficiently, Collect Effectively Fund: Fund Efficiently, Manage Risk Ford Credit Profit Reporting SLIDE 1
3 Anything else is just credit.
4 Ford Credit Strategic Value, Virtuous Circle and Value Proposition SLIDE 3
5 FORD CREDIT STRATEGIC VALUE Profitably support Ford, its dealers and customers through economic cycles Strategic value delivered through: More than 55 years of automotive financing experience Consistent vehicle inventory financing, supporting automotive production plans and dealer inventory requirements Exclusive Ford and Lincoln retail and lease consumer financing products; integrated marketing strategies SLIDE 4
6 FORD CREDIT STRATEGIC VALUE Ford Credit is integrally tied to Ford Motor Company Our profitability is based on competitive leverage and return targets We have a relentless focus on driving value based on: A competitive funding structure A world-class operating cost structure A world-class risk management organization Our comprehensive customer relationship management process enhances the sales and service experience, and drives repeat business for Ford and Lincoln Ford Credit s processes and focus create the Virtuous Circle SLIDE 5
7 A VIRTUOUS CIRCLE -- INTEGRATION CREATES A STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE Trusted brand Access to dealer channel More products, faster Dealers Automotive specialist with vested interest in Ford dealer success Training and consulting Consistent market presence Higher customer satisfaction and loyalty Profits and dividends Fast, flexible, quality service Full array of products Incremental vehicle sales (Spread of business and customer relationship management) SLIDE 6
8 75% 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% 75% 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% FORD CREDIT VALUE PROPOSITION -- CUSTOMER LOYALTY TO FORD U.S. % Loyal to Ford & Lincoln Europe (Big 5 Markets) % Loyal to Ford* 17 ppts. 27 ppts Ford Credit Dealer Arranged Customer Arranged Ford Credit Dealer Arranged Customer Arranged Source: Maritz New Vehicle Customer Survey Source: Internal * 2014 European Data will be available in 2Q 2015 Customers Who Finance With Ford Credit Are More Loyal To Ford Compared With Customers Who Finance With Other Lenders SLIDE 7
9 FORD CREDIT VALUE PROPOSITION -- U.S. CUSTOMER SATISFACTION WITH DEALER-ARRANGED FINANCING 90% 6 ppts. Ford Credit Financing Other Dealer-Arranged Financing 40% Source: Maritz New Vehicle Customer Survey Customers Are More Satisfied With Ford Credit Than Other Dealer-Arranged Financing SLIDE 8
10 FORD CREDIT VALUE PROPOSITION -- FORD CREDIT U.S. FLOORPLAN DEALERS Performance vs. Non-Ford Credit Dealers Automotive Retail Market Share ppts (within the dealer s market area) Ford Credit Share of Ford / Lincoln Retail Sales ppts Customer Satisfaction ppts Certified Pre-Owned Penetration ppts (as a % of total used vehicle sales) Extended Service Plan Penetration ppts Ford Credit, Through The Virtuous Circle, Delivers Higher Value To Ford, Our Dealers And Our Customers Than Other Finance Providers SLIDE 9
11 FORD CREDIT VALUE PROPOSITION -- HISTORICAL PROFITABILITY Pre-tax Profits $4.9 Distributions $3.7 $2.3 $2.2 $1.8 $1.8 $2.1 $2.5 $2.5 $2.0 $2.9 $2.0 $1.2 $2.0 $3.1 $2.4 $1.7 $1.8 $ $(2.6) Over The Last 20 Years, Ford Credit Generated $42 Billion In Pre-Tax Profits And $28 Billion In Distributions SLIDE 10
12 Scope of Operations
13 FORD CREDIT GLOBAL PRESENCE Ford Credit Operations Joint Ventures Outsource Partners Ford Credit Export Finance Ford Credit Supports Ford Everywhere It Operates Around The World -- With The Right Business Model For Each Market SLIDE 12
14 SIZE AND SCOPE OF OPERATIONS Ford indirectly owns 100% of Ford Credit Ford Credit offers a wide variety of automotive financing products to and through automotive dealers around the world Ford Credit has about 6,500 full-time employees and provides financing in approximately 100 countries As of year-end 2014, Ford Credit was financing worldwide: About 5,200 Ford and Lincoln dealers About 4.2 million customer contracts Ford Credit generates about 100 million customer touch points every year through websites, calls, s, preapprovals, and invoices SLIDE 13
15 WORLDWIDE MANAGED RECEIVABLES AND EQUITY AT YEAR-END 2014 Managed Receivables* Of $113 Billion Regional View International 19% $22 Billion Product View Wholesale 27% $31 Billion Dealer Loan and Other 3% $3 Billion U.S. & Canada 81% $91 Billion Leases 21% $24 Billion Retail 49% $55 Billion Equity** $11.4 Billion Supporting Operations * Managed receivables equals net receivables, excluding unearned interest supplements and residual support, allowance for credit losses, and other (primarily accumulated supplemental depreciation). See Appendix 1 for reconciliation to GAAP ** Equity equals shareholder s interest reported on Ford Credit s balance sheet SLIDE 14
16 RELATIONSHIP AGREEMENT WITH FORD Any extension of credit to Ford will be on arm s-length terms and will be enforced in a commercially reasonable manner Ford Credit will not guarantee more than $500 million of indebtedness of, or make equity investments in any of, Ford or its automotive affiliates Ford Credit can require Ford to make a capital contribution if Ford Credit s managed leverage is greater than 11.5 to 1 Ford Credit will not be required to accept credit or residual risk beyond what it would be willing to accept acting in a prudent and commercially reasonable manner Ford and Ford Credit are separate, legally distinct companies and will continue to maintain separate books, accounts, assets and liabilities Up to $2 billion of borrowing capacity under Ford s revolving credit facility allocated to Ford Credit SLIDE 15
17 Ford Credit Business Model and the Drivers of the Business
18 FORD CREDIT BUSINESS MODEL Buy it Right Operate Efficiently Collect Effectively Originate Service Fund Fund Efficiently Manage Risks SLIDE 17
19 ORIGINATIONS STRATEGY Buy it Right Operate Efficiently Collect Effectively Originate Service Fund Fund Efficiently Manage Risks Support Ford Motor Company brands Build strong relationships with dealers Segment credit applications and price appropriately for risk Use robust credit evaluation and verification process Ensure efficient use of capital Technology And Judgment Combine To Buy It Right SLIDE 18
20 ORIGINATIONS SCORING MODELS Ford Credit s proprietary originations scoring models assess the creditworthiness of an applicant using a number of variables, including information from the credit application, the proposed contract terms and credit bureau data Output of the origination scoring models is a proprietary risk score referred to as Probability of Payment (POP) The origination scoring models build on the predictive power of credit bureau and credit application data Internal studies show that POP is more effective than credit bureau data alone POP is used as a credit decisioning variable globally Process governance includes: Senior personnel regularly review decisions of credit analysts to ensure consistency with purchasing quality guidelines Quarterly Risk Management portfolio performance analysis is performed SLIDE 19
21 PURCHASING GUIDELINES AND CONTROL PROCESSES Ford Credit has originations policies and procedures that leverage technology and use well established purchase guidelines to ensure consistent credit decisions Portfolio Level: Purchase quality guidelines establish portfolio targets for the purchase of lower and marginal quality contracts and to manage the overall quality of the portfolio Credit Application Level: Risk factor guidelines provide a framework for credit application evaluation criteria focused on the customer s repayment ability, including for example, loan-to-value, payment-to-income and contract term length Procedures are established for verification of income, employment and residency if appropriate These Capabilities Enable Predictability Of Portfolio Performance SLIDE 20
22 2014 PORTFOLIO LARGELY REFLECTED BUSINESS ORIGINATED IN PRIOR YEARS Prior Originations 2014 Portfolio 2011 Originations 2012 Originations 2013 Originations 2014 Originations Year-End 2014 Managed Receivables Were $113 Billion SLIDE 21
23 HISTORICAL VOLUME AND RECEIVABLES Contract Placement Volume (000s) 1,950 1,193 1,218 1,420 1,542 1,762 1, End of Period Managed Receivables (Bils.) ~$155 $122 $97 $84 $85 $92 $103 $113 $123 $126 - $ End of Decade Since 2010, Contract Volume And Receivables Have Been Growing SLIDE 22
24 SERVICING STRATEGY Buy it Right Operate Efficiently Collect Effectively Originate Service Fund Fund Efficiently Manage Risks Ford Credit has a world-class servicing organization Credit losses are an expected part of the business The objective is to collect within the portfolio loss expectation while managing costs Customer and dealer satisfaction is critical Technology And Judgment Combine To Minimize Credit Losses SLIDE 23
25 SERVICING STRATEGY Ford Credit s proprietary behavioral scoring models assess the risk of a customer default using a number of variables, including origination characteristics, customer history, payment patterns and updated credit bureau data Output of the behavioral scoring models is a proprietary risk score referred to as Probability of Default (POD) Contracts are scored monthly on their due date to get an updated POD Ford Credit s behavioral scoring models differ based on contract characteristics and performance Ford Credit regularly monitors the behavioral scoring models to ensure the predictability of the variables and confirm the continued business significance Behavioral Scoring Models Support The Timely Resolution Of Payment Issues SLIDE 24
26 SERVICING STRATEGY -- RISK SEGMENTATION Segmentation allows the matching of the account risk with the appropriate collection strategy POD is the primary driver in determining risk segmentation Risk segmentation establishes: Assignment issuance timing Follow-up intensity Assignment transfers from an early stage delinquency to a late stage delinquency strategy Segmentation ensures past due customer accounts are assigned to the right collection work queue at the right time HIGH RISK LOW RISK EARLIER HIGHER EARLIER ASSIGNMENT TIMING FOLLOW-UP INTENSITY MOVE TO LATE STAGE COLLECTIONS LATER LOWER LATER SLIDE 25
27 CREDIT LOSS KEY DRIVERS Purchase Practices Broad spread of business (credit quality mix) New and used product mix Term and loan-to-value ratio Collections Practices Proprietary risk score Assignment timing / Follow-up intensity Specialized departments based on delinquency stage Economy Unemployment Growth Bankruptcy rates Used vehicle auction values SLIDE 26
28 HISTORICAL CREDIT LOSS METRICS Worldwide Charge-Offs (Mils.) and Loss-to-Receivables (LTR) Ratio (%) 0.84% 1.07% 0.57% 0.39% 0.46% 0.47% LTR Ratio 0.24% 0.16% 0.18% 0.19% $706 $523 $632 $1,135 $1,095 $415 $201 $136 $176 $ Worldwide Credit Loss Reserve (Mils.) and Reserves as a Pct. of End-of-Period (EOP) Managed Receivables 1.19% 0.81% 0.77% 1.40% 1.61% 1.02% 0.63% Reserves as % of EOP Rec. 0.44% 0.37% 0.32% $1,586 $1,110 $1,090 $1,668 $1,549 $854 $534 $408 $380 $ SLIDE 27
29 HISTORICAL U.S. RETAIL AND LEASE CREDIT LOSS DRIVERS* Average Placement FICO Score Over-60-Day Delinquencies % 0.16% 0.19% 0.24% 0.24% 0.15% 0.14% 0.15% 0.15% 0.14% % % 1.89% 2.30% Repossessions (000) % % % 45 Repo. Ratio 1.35% 1.18% 1.06% Memo: New Bankruptcy Filings (000) % $433 Charge-Offs (Mils.) and LTR (%) 0.74% 0.56% $309 $ % 1.32% $775 $ % $280 LTR 0.36% 0.23% 0.26% 0.27% $144 $100 $127 $ Memo: Severity $6,100 $6,300 $7,400 $9,900 $8,300 $6,900 $6,500 $6,900 $7,600 $7, * Includes Ford, Lincoln and Mercury SLIDE 28
30 HISTORICAL U.S. LEASE RESIDUAL PERFORMANCE Lease Return Volume (000) 24-Month 36-Month 39-Month / Other Auction Values (At Incurred Mix) 24-Month $19,740 $19,875 $19, $18,905 $18, Memo: Ford and Lincoln U.S. Return Rates 65% 56% 62% 71% 78% $17,865 $17,535 $17,385 $16, Month $15, Memo: Worldwide Net Investment in Operating Leases (Bils.) $9.1 $10.1 $13.6 $18.3 $21.5 SLIDE 29
31 LEASE ACCOUNTING -- BASE DEPRECIATION Assumptions: Lease Term: 24 Months MSRP: $21,000 Acquisition Cost $ 21,000 Generally, depreciation for leases is the sum of base and supplemental depreciation. Contract Lease- End Value Percent of MSRP 50.0 % Dollar Value $ 10,500 Base Depreciation reflects scheduled depreciation from the Acquisition Cost to the Contract Lease-End Value and does not change for the life of the contract. Contract Inception Contract Termination T-0 T-3, T-6 T-24 In this example, base depreciation is $ each month for the contract term (24 months) for a total of $10,500. SLIDE 30
32 LEASE ACCOUNTING -- SUPPLEMENTAL DEPRECIATION Assumptions: Lease Term: 24 Months MSRP: $21,000 Acquisition Cost $ 21,000 Book Value $ 19, Supplemental Depreciation reflects additional depreciation to achieve expected actual residual (i.e., auction) values for the leased vehicles. Contract Lease- End Value Expected Actual Residual (i.e., Auction) Value at Lease Contract Termination Percent of MSRP 50.0 % 46.0 % Additional Credit Co. Supplemental Depreciation Expense Dollar Value $ 10,500 $ 9,660 Supplemental depreciation can change based on expectations and it is assessed quarterly. It can be negative, however, it can never un-depreciate above base depreciation. Contract Inception Contract Termination T-0 T-3, T-6 T-24 In this example, supplemental depreciation is $40 each month for remaining term (21 months) for a total of $840. SLIDE 31
33 EFFICIENT FUNDING Buy it Right Operate Efficiently Collect Effectively Originate Service Fund Fund Efficiently Manage Risks Ford Credit s funding strategy is to: Maintain strong liquidity Access diverse and cost-effective funding sources SLIDE 32
34 KEY COST DRIVERS Base Rates Spreads Operating Costs Borrowing Costs Residual & Credit Losses Borrowing cost is our largest expense Borrowed funds are a finance company s raw material Key factors that drive our borrowing cost are: Base interest rates Credit ratings Funding strategy Credit spreads Market conditions SLIDE 33
35 HOW DO RATINGS IMPACT PROFITABILITY? Ford Credit U.S. Unsecured Debt Spreads vs. Issuer Rating Basis Points S&P Issuer Rating Achieved Investment Grade Ratings from Fitch, Moody s and DBRS in 2012 and S&P in 2013 Spreads should continue to improve with our ratings Memo: Ford Credit ratings (at year-end) S&P Moody s BB+ Baa3 B B1 B B1 CCC+ Caa1 B- B3 B+ Ba2 BB+ Ba1 Investment Grade BB+ Baa3 BBB- A3 BBB- Baa3 BBB- Baa3 Unsecured Spreads Are Inversely Correlated To Ratings; Spreads Have Improved Significantly Since Achieving Investment Grade SLIDE 34
36 FUNDING STRUCTURE * The Ford Interest Advantage program consists of our floating rate demand notes ** Obligations issued in securitization transactions that are payable only out of collections on the underlying securitized assets and related enhancements *** Excludes marketable securities related to insurance activities As We Continue To Strengthen Our Balance Sheet And Our Ratings Improve, Securitization As A Percent Of Managed Receivables Is Expected To Decline SLIDE 35
37 PUBLIC TERM FUNDING PLAN 2012 Actual (Bils.) 2013 Actual (Bils.) 2014 Actual (Bils.) 2015 Forecast (Bils.) Unsecured $ 9 $ 11 $ 13 $ Securitizations* Total $ 23 $ 25 $ 28 $ * Includes Rule 144A offerings Projected 2015 Public Issuance Largely Consistent With 2014; Continue To Maintain A Significant Presence In Both Unsecured And Securitization Markets SLIDE 36
38 2014 LIQUIDITY PROGRAMS Committed Capacity $37.3 billion * Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities (excludes marketable securities related to insurance activities) ** Committed ABS lines are subject to availability of sufficient assets and ability to obtain derivatives to manage interest rate risk *** Used only to support on-balance sheet securitization transactions **** Adjustments include other committed ABS lines in excess of eligible receivables and certain cash within FordREV available through future sales of receivables Available Liquidity Remains Strong At $26.5 Billion SLIDE 37
39 BALANCE SHEET LIQUIDITY PROFILE Cumulative Maturities -- As of December 31, 2014 (Bils.) Assets (a) Debt (b) $97 $113 $122 $105 $72 $68 $82 $49 (c) & Beyond Memo: Unsecured long-term debt maturities (Bils.) $9.1 $10.4 $11.1 $21.0 (a) (b) (c) Includes finance receivables net of unearned income, investment in operating leases net of accumulated depreciation, cash and cash equivalents, and marketable securities (excludes marketable securities related to insurance activities). Retail and lease ABS are treated as amortizing to match the underlying assets. Includes all of the wholesale ABS term and conduit maturities of $9.7 billion that otherwise contractually extend to 2016 and beyond. Ford Credit s Balance Sheet Is Inherently Liquid As Assets Liquidate More Quickly Than Debt SLIDE 38
40 INTEREST RATE RISK -- ASSET LIABILITY MISMATCH Assets Floating Rate Assets, primarily Cash and Wholesale receivables Fixed Rate Assets, primarily Retail/Lease contracts Repricing (Years) Liabilities Fixed Rate Liabilities, primarily unsecured debt and Retail/Lease securitization Floating Rate Debt, primarily Ford Interest Advantage, Commercial Paper, and Wholesale securitization Repricing (Years) Interest Rate Risk Is Created When Repricing Characteristics Of Funding Sources Do Not Naturally Match Repricing Characteristics Of Assets SLIDE 39
41 INTEREST RATE RISK -- ASSET LIABILITY MISMATCH Assets Liabilities, Derivatives & Equity Step 1: Excess long-term fixed rate debt is swapped to floating rate debt Repricing (Years) Assets Liabilities, Derivatives & Equity Step 2: Excess floating rate debt is swapped to fixed rate debt to match asset repricing profile in line with risk tolerance Repricing (Years) Swaps Are Used To Manage Our Interest Rate Exposure In Line With Risk Management Strategy And Tolerances SLIDE 40
42 FORD CREDIT DERIVATIVE NOTIONAL (Bils.) (Bils.) Interest Rate Derivatives Pay-fix swaps $ 17 $ 15 Pay-float swaps Securitization swaps Subtotal interest rate derivatives $ 89 $ 80 Other Derivatives Cross-currency swaps 3 2 Foreign currency forwards 2 2 Total derivative notional $ 94 $ 84 Memo: Non-designated derivative notional (Bils.) $ 75 $ 61 Income/(loss) from Unallocated Risk Management (Mils.) $ (53) $ (6) Income/(Loss) as a % of non-designated notional (Pct.) (0.07) % (0.01) % Despite The Significant Derivative Notional Balance, Ford Credit s Derivatives Had A Minimal Impact On Total Profit SLIDE 41
43 FUNDING A STRONG FORD CREDIT BALANCE SHEET Expanding and diversifying our funding programs globally Increasing mix of term debt, reducing annual financing requirements Developing innovative funding platforms in mature and growth markets Maintaining strong liquidity to protect against funding disruptions Targeting total liquidity of $25 billion + Delivering around 10% return on equity with sustainable distributions Maintaining leverage between 8 and 9 to 1 Targeting single-a credit rating profile Strong Funding and Liquidity Profile Supports Growth in Receivables SLIDE 42
44 Ford Credit Profit Reporting
45 2014 FULL YEAR PRE-TAX RESULTS COMPARED WITH METHODOLOGY USED IN K $98 Millions $1,756 $1,854 $357 $8 $(87) $(51) $(129) Volume Financing Credit Margin Loss Lease Residual Other SLIDE 44
46 2014 FULL YEAR PRE-TAX RESULTS COMPARED WITH REVISED METHODOLOGY Millions $1,756 $98 $1,854 Added Mix to the Volume category Previously, Mix (by default) was included in Financing Margin New variance category to isolate changes in pre-tax profit driven by changes in exchange rates Previously, pre-tax profit effect of changes in exchange rates was reflected in each causal factor $429 $36 $(135) $(55) $(128) $(49) Volume / Financing Credit Mix Margin Loss Lease Residual Exchange Other SLIDE 45
47 2014 FULL YEAR PRE-TAX RESULTS COMPARED WITH VOLUME (REVISED METHODOLOGY) Millions $1,756 $98 $1,854 Volume represents the change in average receivables multiplied by the prior period financing margin yield at prior period exchange rates Mix represents changes in net financing margin driven by changes in the composition of our average managed receivables by product and by country or region $429 $36 $(135) $(55) $(128) $(49) Volume / Financing Credit Mix Margin Loss Lease Residual Exchange Other SLIDE 46
48 VOLUME AND MIX PROFIT VARIANCES Managed Receivables (Bils.) Volume and Mix Variances Beginning of Period End of Period $92 $103 $103 $113 $ $ Compared with 2013 Volume 2014 Average Receivables at 2013 Exchange Rates (Bils.) $ Average Receivables 96.4 Increase / (Decrease) in Receivables $ 12.5 Average 2013 Financing Margin ~ 2.80 % Volume Variance (Mils.) ~ $ 350 Mix (Primarily Higher Leases and China Receivables) ~ 79 Total Volume and Mix $ Memo: Average Receivables at Incurred Exchange Rates $96.4 $108.4 ~$119 Average Receivables at Prior Year Exchange Rates $108.9 ~$122 Directional 2015 Compared with 2014 Volume 2015 Average Receivables at 2014 Exchange Rates (Bils.) ~ $ Average Receivables Increase / (Decrease) in Receivables ~ $ 13.6 Average 2014 Financing Margin (similar to 2014) ~ 2.80 % Volume Variance (Mils.) ~ $ 380 Mix (similar to 2014) ~ 80 Total Volume and Mix ~ $ 460 SLIDE 47
49 2014 FULL YEAR PRE-TAX RESULTS COMPARED WITH FINANCING MARGIN (REVISED METHODOLOGY) $98 Millions $1,756 $1,854 Financing Margin equals the change in revenue net of base depreciation less borrowing costs $429 $36 $(135) $(55) $(128) $(49) Volume / Financing Credit Mix Margin Loss Lease Residual Exchange Other SLIDE 48
50 FINANCING MARGIN FUNCTION OF FINANCING REVENUE AND BORROWING COST Financing Margin Financing margin is primarily reflected within Net financing margin on the income statement. Financing margin variance is the period-to-period change in financing margin yield multiplied by the present period average receivables at prior period exchange rates. Financing margin yield equals revenue, less interest expense and base depreciation for the period, divided by average receivables for the same period. Financing margin changes are driven by changes in revenue and interest expense. Changes in revenue are primarily driven by the level of market interest rates, cost assumptions in pricing, mix of business, and competitive environment. Changes in interest expense are primarily driven by the level of market interest rates, borrowing spreads, and asset-liability management Versus 2013 Unfavorable Financing Margin Variance Of $135 Million Primarily Reflects Lower Portfolio Pricing In North America And A One-Time Reserve In Europe SLIDE 49
51 2014 FULL YEAR PRE-TAX RESULTS COMPARED WITH CREDIT LOSSES (REVISED METHODOLOGY) $98 Millions $1,756 $1,854 Credit Loss equals the change in: Charge-offs, plus Changes in the Allowance for Credit Losses At prior period exchange rates $429 $36 $(135) $(55) $(128) $(49) Volume / Financing Credit Mix Margin Loss Lease Residual Exchange Other SLIDE 50
52 UNDERSTANDING CREDIT LOSS TERMINOLOGY BALANCE SHEET Allowance for Credit Losses (Reserve): Estimate of the credit losses inherent in the finance receivables and operating leases as of the date of the financial statements INCOME STATEMENT IMPACT Charge-offs (net): Actual loss incurred on a receivable or lease net of recoveries. Recoveries are amounts collected from customers after the account has been charged off + Change in Reserves: Reflects the increase or decrease in Allowance for Credit Losses during the period, net of changes in reserves resulting from changes in exchange rates, which flow through Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income and not through the Income Statement. = Provision for Credit Losses: Expense that flows through the income statement to provide appropriate allowance for credit losses SLIDE 51
53 2014 FULL YEAR CREDIT LOSS VARIANCE EXPLANATION (REVISED METHODOLOGY) Worldwide On-Balance Sheet Charge-Offs and Allowance for Credit Losses (Bils.) Reserves $(7) $28 $21 $408 $380 $359 Profit Impact 2014 (Mils.) Change in Reserves $ (7) Exchange Rate Impact on Reserves* (11) Change in Reserves Variance $ (18) Charge-Offs (33) Exchange Rate Impact on Losses (4) Total Credit Loss Variance $ (55) Charge-Offs $(33) * In the absence of a stronger dollar, Reserves would have been about $370 million -- $11 million higher. $136 $176 $ MEMO: LTR (%) 0.16% 0.18% 0.19% SLIDE 52
54 2015 FULL YEAR PROVISION FOR CREDIT LOSSES DIRECTIONAL GUIDANCE Worldwide On-Balance Sheet Charge-Offs and Allowance for Credit Losses (Bils.) Reserves $21 $TBD - $21 $ TBD Directional 2015 Compared with 2014 Reserves are a function of receivables and credit loss trends. $380 $359 $359 Charge-Offs $TBD Charge-offs are expected to increase in 2015 from near historical lows due to higher managed receivables and higher loss-to-receivable ratio; however, credit losses still remain below 10-year average of 46 bps. $TBD $TBD $176 $209 $ MEMO: LTR (%) 0.18% 0.19% Higher Credit Losses Are Expected To Increase From The Near Historical Lows In Reserves Are A Function Of Receivables And Credit Loss Trends SLIDE 53
55 2014 FULL YEAR PRE-TAX RESULTS COMPARED WITH LEASE RESIDUAL (REVISED METHODOLOGY) $98 Millions $1,756 $1,854 Lease Residual equals the change in: Residual performance, plus Change in Supplemental Depreciation At prior period exchange rates $429 $36 $(135) $(55) $(128) $(49) Volume / Financing Credit Mix Margin Loss Lease Residual Exchange Other SLIDE 54
56 UNDERSTANDING LEASE RESIDUAL TERMINOLOGY -- INCOME STATEMENT RESIDUAL PERFORMANCE IN THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Lease residual performance is included in depreciation in our financial statements, which is part of Net Financing Margin. For analytical purposes, we move the residual performance portion of depreciation from Net Financing Margin into its own category RESIDUAL PERFORMANCE Supplemental Depreciation: Reflects the increase or decrease in depreciation as a result of changes in the projected residual values beyond base depreciation at prior period exchange rates + Residual Gains / Losses: Reflects the difference between the auction value and the depreciated value (base + supplemental depreciation) at prior period exchange rates + Impairment (Rarely Used): Reflects a decrease in the book value of a lease due to significant decline in the value of the vehicles = Lease Residual: The sum of the change in supplemental depreciation, residual gains or losses, and impairment for the period SLIDE 55
57 2014 LEASE RESIDUAL PERFORMANCE VARIANCE (REVISED METHODOLOGY) North America Lease Termination Volume (000) Impaired Unimpaired Profit Impact North America Average Gain / (Loss) on Terminated Unit* $ (300) $ (700) Volume 174, ,000 Gain / (Loss) on Terminated Units (Mils.) (52) (183) 125 Other Global Markets / Other (Mils.) $ (50) $ (47) Total Lease Residual Incl. Other (Mils.) $ (102) $ (230) Change in Residual Gains/(losses) (Mils.) $(128) Memo: North America Return Rates 69% 59% 60% 67% 74% * See slide 29 for actual U.S. 24-month and 36-month auction values SLIDE 56
58 2015 LEASE RESIDUAL PERFORMANCE VARIANCE North America Lease Termination Volume (000) Directional 2015 Profit Impact Impaired Unimpaired ~ North America Average Gain / (Loss) on Terminated Unit* $ (700) $ (TBD) Volume 261,000 ~260,000 Gain / (Loss) on Terminated Units (Mils.) $ (183) $ (TBD) 47 Other Global Markets / Other (Mils.) $ (47) $ (TBD) ~ 260 Total Lease Residual Incl. Other (Mils.) $ (230) $ (TBD) Change in Residual Gains/(losses) (Mils.) $ (TBD) Memo: North America Return Rates 59% 60% 67% 74% TBD * See slide 29 for actual U.S. 24 month and 36-month auction values Lease Residual Performance Variance Is Dependent On Auction Values SLIDE 57
59 2014 FULL YEAR PRE-TAX RESULTS COMPARED WITH EXCHANGE (REVISED METHODOLOGY) $1,756 $98 $1,854 Millions Exchange equals the difference between present period Profits at present period Exchange Rates and present period Profits at prior period Exchange Rates Over 30% of Ford Credit's Profits are generated outside of the U.S. $429 $36 $(135) $(55) $(128) $(49) Volume / Financing Credit Mix Margin Loss Lease Residual Exchange Other SLIDE 58
60 2014 FULL YEAR PRE-TAX RESULTS COMPARED WITH OTHER (REVISED METHODOLOGY) $98 Millions $1,756 $1,854 Primarily includes Operating expenses*, Other revenue**, and Insurance expenses on the income statement at prior period exchange rates $429 $36 $(135) $(55) $(128) $(49) Volume / Financing Credit Mix Margin Loss Lease Residual Exchange Other * Changes in operating expenses are primarily driven by salaried personnel costs, facilities costs, and costs associated with the origination and servicing of customer contracts ** In general, other revenue changes are primarily driven by changes in earnings related to market valuation adjustments to derivatives (primarily related to movements in interest rates), which are included in unallocated risk management, and other miscellaneous items SLIDE 59
61 OPERATING COSTS -- MAIN DRIVER IN OTHER End-of-Period Managed Receivables, Operating Cost and Global Operating Cost Ratio Managed Receivables Operating Cost Operating Cost Ratio Ford Credit Is Committed To Achieving An Operating Cost Ratio Among The Best In The Industry SLIDE 60
62 RISK FACTORS Statements included or incorporated by reference herein may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of Forward-looking statements are based on expectations, forecasts, and assumptions by our management and involve a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those stated, including, without limitation: Decline in industry sales volume, particularly in the United States, Europe, or China, due to financial crisis, recession, geopolitical events, or other factors; Decline in Ford s market share or failure to achieve growth; Lower-than-anticipated market acceptance of Ford s new or existing products; Market shift away from sales of larger, more profitable vehicles beyond Ford s current planning assumption, particularly in the United States; An increase in or continued volatility of fuel prices, or reduced availability of fuel; Continued or increased price competition resulting from industry excess capacity, currency fluctuations, or other factors; Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices, and interest rates; Adverse effects resulting from economic, geopolitical, or other events; Economic distress of suppliers that may require Ford to provide substantial financial support or take other measures to ensure supplies of components or materials and could increase costs, affect liquidity, or cause production constraints or disruptions; Work stoppages at Ford or supplier facilities or other limitations on production (whether as a result of labor disputes, natural or man-made disasters, tight credit markets or other financial distress, production constraints or difficulties, or other factors); Single-source supply of components or materials; Labor or other constraints on Ford s ability to maintain competitive cost structure; Substantial pension and postretirement health care and life insurance liabilities impairing liquidity or financial condition; Worse-than-assumed economic and demographic experience for postretirement benefit plans (e.g., discount rates or investment returns); Restriction on use of tax attributes from tax law ownership change; The discovery of defects in vehicles resulting in delays in new model launches, recall campaigns, or increased warranty costs; Increased safety, emissions, fuel economy, or other regulations resulting in higher costs, cash expenditures, and/or sales restrictions; Unusual or significant litigation, governmental investigations, or adverse publicity arising out of alleged defects in products, perceived environmental impacts, or otherwise; A change in requirements under long-term supply arrangements committing Ford to purchase minimum or fixed quantities of certain parts, or to pay a minimum amount to the seller ( take-or-pay contracts); Adverse effects on results from a decrease in or cessation or clawback of government incentives related to investments; Inherent limitations of internal controls impacting financial statements and safeguarding of assets; Cybersecurity risks to operational systems, security systems, or infrastructure owned by Ford, Ford Credit, or a third-party vendor or supplier; Failure of financial institutions to fulfill commitments under committed credit and liquidity facilities; Inability of Ford Credit to access debt, securitization, or derivative markets around the world at competitive rates or in sufficient amounts, due to credit rating downgrades, market volatility, market disruption, regulatory requirements, or other factors; Higher-than-expected credit losses, lower-than-anticipated residual values, or higher-than-expected return volumes for leased vehicles; Increased competition from banks, financial institutions, or other third parties seeking to increase their share of financing Ford vehicles; and New or increased credit, consumer, or data protection or other regulations resulting in higher costs and/or additional financing restrictions. We cannot be certain that any expectation, forecast, or assumption made in preparing forward-looking statements will prove accurate, or that any projection will be realized. It is to be expected that there may be differences between projected and actual results. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of their initial issuance, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. For additional discussion, see "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014, as updated by our subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and Current Reports on Form 8-K. SLIDE 61
63 APPENDIX
64 NET FINANCE RECEIVABLES AND OPERATING LEASES Dec. 31, 2013 Dec. 31, 2014 Receivables* (Bils.) (Bils.) Net Receivables Finance Receivables Finance receivables North America Segment Consumer retail financing $ 40.9 $ 44.1 Non-Consumer Dealer financing** Other Total finance receivables North America Segment $ 64.0 $ 67.6 Finance receivables International Segment Consumer retail financing $ 10.8 $ 11.8 Non-Consumer Dealer financing ** Other Total finance receivables International Segment $ 19.5 $ 21.4 Unearned interest supplements (1.5) (1.8) Allowance for credit losses (0.4) (0.3) Finance receivables, net $ 81.6 $ 86.9 Net investment in operating leases Total net receivables $ 99.9 $ Managed Receivables Total net receivables $ 99.9 $ Unearned interest supplements and residual support Allowance for credit losses Other, primarily accumulated supplemental depreciation Total managed receivables $ $ * Includes finance receivables (retail and wholesale) sold for legal purposes and net investment in operating leases included in securitization transactions that do not satisfy the requirements for accounting sale treatment. These receivables and operating leases are reported on Ford Credit s balance sheet and are available only for payment of the debt issued by, and other obligations of, the securitization entities that are parties to those securitization transactions; they are not available to pay the other obligations of Ford Credit or the claims of Ford Credit s other creditors ** Dealer financing primarily includes wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory APPENDIX 1 of 3
65 RECONCILIATION OF MANAGED LEVERAGE TO FINANCIAL STATEMENT LEVERAGE Dec. 31 Dec. 31 (Bils.) (Bils.) Leverage Calculation Total Debt* $ 98.7 $ Adjustments for Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Marketable Securities** (10.8) (8.9) Adjustments for Derivative Accounting*** (0.2) (0.4) Total Adjusted Debt $ 87.7 $ 95.7 Equity**** $ 10.6 $ 11.4 Adjustments for Derivative Accounting*** (0.3) (0.4) Total Adjusted Equity $ 10.3 $ 11.0 Financial Statement Leverage (to 1) Managed Leverage (to 1)***** * Includes debt reported on Ford Credit's balance sheet that is issued in securitization transactions and payable only out of collections on the underlying securitized assets and related enhancements. Ford Credit holds the right to receive the excess cash flows not needed to pay the debt issued by, and other obligations of, the securitization entities that are parties to those securitization transactions ** Excludes marketable securities related to insurance activities *** Primarily related to market valuation adjustments to derivatives due to movements in interest rates. Adjustments to debt are related to designated fair value hedges and adjustments to equity are related to retained earnings **** Shareholder's interest reported on Ford Credit's balance sheet ***** Equals total adjusted debt over total adjusted equity APPENDIX 2 of 3
66 IMPACT OF ON-BALANCE SHEET SECURITIZATION Impact of On-Balance Sheet Securitization receivables include finance receivables (retail and wholesale) sold for legal purposes and net investment in operating leases included in securitization transactions that do not satisfy the requirements for accounting sale treatment. These receivables and operating leases are reported on Ford Credit s balance sheet and are available only for payment of the debt issued by, and other obligations of, the securitization entities that are parties to those securitization transactions; they are not available to pay the other obligations of Ford Credit or the claims of Ford Credit s other creditors. Total debt includes debt reported on Ford Credit s balance sheet that is issued in securitization transactions and payable only out of collections on the underlying securitized assets and related enhancements. Ford Credit holds the right to receive the excess cash flows not needed to pay the debt issued by, and other obligations of, the securitization entities that are parties to those securitization transactions. APPENDIX 3 of 3
67 FURTHER INFORMATION Ford Investor Relations Contacts: Fixed Income Investors: Stephen Dahle (U.S.-based) Information on Ford: 10-K Annual Reports 10-Q Quarterly Reports 8-K Current Reports Ford University 2013/2014 Sustainability Report Information on Ford Motor Credit Company: 10-K Annual Reports 10-Q Quarterly Reports 8-K Current Reports Ford Credit University SLIDE 66
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