Project Management Using Earned Value

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1 Project Management Using Earned Value Third Edition Gary C. Humphreys Earned Value Management Consulting Training

2 2002, 2011, 2014 Gary C. Humphreys Humphreys & Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, distributed, or stored in any form or by any means without the written permission of the author. First edition published Second edition published Third edition 2014 Printed in the United States of America ISBN Humphreys & Associates, Inc Research Drive Irvine, CA USA (714)

3 iii Table of Contents List of Figures xiii Preface xxiii Acknowledgments xxv SECTION 1 EARNED VALUE PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND ORGANIZATION Chapter 1 Project Management Using Earned Value What is a Project? Managing Projects Background The Performance-Oriented Approach Summary Implementation Concerns Factors Affecting System Implementation Detail Earned Value Management System Recognition The Earned Value Management Process The Process Steps Conclusion Chapter 1 Review Questions Chapter 2 Definition of Scope, Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and WBS Dictionary Defining Project Objectives The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Considerations in Developing a WBS WBS Examples WBS Dictionary Other Considerations in WBS Development The Contract Work Breakdown Structure (CWBS) Scope Verification Conclusion Chapter 2 Review Questions Case Study 2.1 Work Breakdown Structure Part Case Study 2.2 Work Breakdown Structure Part Case Study 2.3 WBS Element Description Chapter 3 Managing Project Risks Introduction to Managing Project Risks The Process Flow Diagram Relationship of Risk Management to the Earned Value Management System Development of Estimates Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis Budgets Management Reserve Variance Analysis Estimates at Completion Conclusion Chapter 3 Review Questions Case Study 3.1 Using the Risk Register

4 iv Table of Contents Chapter 4 Relating Organizations, Responsibility, and Work Scope Organizational Structures Responsibility Assignment Matrix (RAM) Control Account Establishment Conclusion Chapter 4 Review Questions Case Study 4.1 Control Account Definition Part Case Study 4.2 Control Account Definition Part Chapter 5 Work Teams The Work Team Advantages of Work Teams The Work Team Lead Conclusion Chapter 5 Review Questions Case Study 5.1 Organization Chart and Responsibility Assignment Matrix Case Study Section 1 Quiz SECTION 2 SCHEDULING Chapter 6 What is Scheduling? Schedule Types Project Scheduling What is a Schedule and Why Use One? Data Requirements Data Processing Using Results Schedule Types Gantt Charts Milestone Chart Bar Chart Combination Chart Modified Gantt/Milestone Chart Flow Process Chart Set Back Chart Line of Balance Network Diagrams Conclusion Chapter 6 Review Questions Case Study 6.1 Developing a Personal Schedule Chapter 7 Introduction to Network Logic Development Precedence Diagramming Method Activity Relationships Representations of Logic in Time-Phased Formats Conclusion Chapter 7 Review Questions Case Study 7.1 Constructing a Network Diagram Chapter 8 Critical Path Method Fundamentals The Critical Path Method Critical Path Example Network Calculations

5 Table of Contents v Free Float Directed Dates Critical Path Characteristics Driving Paths A Final Note Conclusion Chapter 8 Review Questions Case Study 8.1 A More Complex Network Case Study 8.2 CPM Network Construction Case Study 8.3 Date, Float and Critical Path Calculation Case Study 8.4 Constructing a Bar Chart Case Study 8.5 Path Analysis Using Total Float Chapter 9 Resource Loading and Leveling the Schedule The Resource Loading Process Priority Rules and Strategies for Resource Leveling Additional Considerations Leveled Start and Finish Resource Curves Other Applications Conclusion Chapter 9 Review Questions Case Study 9.1 Resource Leveling Chapter 10 Considerations for Developing a Useful, Quality Network Schedule Network Development Techniques: Top-Down Network Development Techniques: Bottom-Up Network Development Techniques: IMP/IMS Concerns in the Schedule Development Process Using Hammocks, Summary Activities and Grouping for Concise Reporting Templates Lags, Leads and Date Constraints Schedule Visibility Tasks Schedule Margin Schedule Margin Activity Method Lag Method Gap Method Baseline Finish Variance Method Resource Application Schedule Approaches Schedule Visibility Versus Risk Determining Detail Creating and Maintaining Quality Schedules Fourteen Point Schedule Health Check Fourteen Point Schedule Health Check Correlation with GASP Conclusion Chapter 10 Review Questions Case Study 10.1 Build a Network Schedule Chapter 11 Schedule Acceleration Techniques The Crashing Procedure

6 vi Table of Contents An Example of Network Crashing Other Schedule Acceleration Techniques Conclusion Chapter 11 Review Questions Case Study Crashing the Network or What If Chapter 12 Setting a Traceable Schedule Baseline Schedule Traceability A Solution Defining the Schedule Baseline Schedule Baseline Establishment Realism and Schedule Detail Timing of Schedule Baseline Establishment Schedule Baseline Revisions The Baseline Schedule Versus the Current Schedule Conclusion Chapter 12 Review Questions Case Study 12.1 Vertical and Horizontal Schedule Traceability Chapter 13 Updating the Schedule Successful Schedule Update Process Additional Statusing Considerations Methods for Addressing Out-Of-Sequence Logic Status Retained Logic Progress Override Impact on Total Float Conclusion Chapter 13 Review Questions Case Study 13.1 Analyzing the Schedule Chapter 14 Schedule Changes Duration Changes Measuring Schedule Status Defining Significant Changes Recording the Changes Work-Around Plans Baseline Changes Conclusion Chapter 14 Review Questions Case Study 14.1 Analyzing Schedule Changes Chapter 15 Resolving Negative Float Float Analysis at Status Update Isolating the Cause of Float Deterioration Impact of the Delay Resolution Alternatives for Negative Float Float Analysis by Project Team Conclusion Chapter 15 Review Questions Case Study Resolving Negative Float

7 Table of Contents vii Chapter 16 Special Networking Considerations Directed Dates Secondary Float Parallel SS/FF Relationships Level of Effort Calendar Considerations Conclusion Chapter 16 Review Questions Case Study 16.1 A More Complex Network Chapter 17 Schedule Risk Assessment Reasons for Risk Analysis Risk Definition and Use of a Risk Assessment The CPM Approach to Schedule Risk Probabilistic Approach to Schedule Risk Example: Building Foundation Activity Example: CPM Path Duration Risk Analysis of Path Duration Cumulative Likelihood Curves (S-Curves) Validity of the CPM Completion Estimates Highest Risk Path Schedule Risk at Path Convergence Schedule Bias Merge Bias at Path Convergence Directed Dates Reducing Durations to Fit the Schedule Fast Track Impacts Late Start Scheduling Early Start Scheduling Risk Analysis Pitfalls Risk Implementation Schedule Risk Analysis Output Cost Risk Analysis Output Other Scheduling Issues Risk Assessment Tools PERT Monte Carlo Approach Cost Effective Implementation Conclusion Chapter 17 Review Questions Case Study 17.1 Making Activity Duration Distributions Case Study 17.2 Combining Distributions Along a Path Case Study 17.3 Schedule EAC and Path Convergence Chapter 18 Scheduling in a Performance Measurement Environment System Description Schedule Traceability Reconciliation to Time-Phased Budgets Reconciliation of Progress and Performance Contract Requirements Special Requirements Conclusion Chapter 18 Review Questions

8 viii Table of Contents Case Study 18.1 Schedule Traceability Case Study Section 2 Quiz SECTION 3 ESTIMATING Chapter 19 The Estimating Process Impact of the Estimate Impacts of Poor Estimating Prerequisites for Estimate Development Guidelines Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Templates WBS Dictionary and Code of Accounts Estimate Formats/Templates Conclusion Chapter 19 Review Questions Chapter 20 Types of Estimates Conceptual Estimates Preliminary Estimates Detailed Estimates Definitive Estimate Impact of Fast Track Projects on Estimating Conclusion Chapter 20 Review Questions Chapter 21 Estimate Development The Estimating Process Estimating Methods Inputs for Estimate Development Sources of Estimate Inputs The Use of Defaults in Estimate Preparation Estimating Guidelines Level of Estimate Detail Calculation of Indirect Costs Developing a Cost Flow Use of Other Escalation Factors Estimating Operating and Manufacturing Costs Software Estimating Conclusion Chapter 21 Review Questions Case Study 21.1 Developing an Estimate Case Study 21.2 Estimate Modification Chapter 22 Learning Curves Unit Learning Curve Cumulative Average Learning Curve The Difference between Unit Linear and Cumulative Average Linear Determining the Learning Curve to Use Typical Learning Curve Values Impacts to Learning Curves Conclusion Chapter 22 Review Questions

9 Table of Contents ix Case Study 22.1 Estimating Cost Savings Chapter 23 Cost Risk Assessment Risk Model Definition Risk Analysis Sampling Techniques Probability Distributions Risk Assessment Outputs Risk Assessment Output Statistics Conducting a Risk Assessment Implementation Examples Conclusion Chapter 23 Review Questions Chapter 24 Estimate Review External Reviews Other Factors in Estimate Reviews Team Reviews Conclusion Chapter 24 Review Questions Case Study Assessing the Estimate Chapter 25 Tracking the Estimate Estimate Traceability: Tracking the Estimate Conclusion Chapter 25 Review Questions Case Study 25.1 Estimate History Chapter 26 Automating the Estimating Function Software Evaluation Considerations Implementation Concerns Conclusion Chapter 26 Review Questions Case Study Section 3 Quiz SECTION 4 EARNED VALUE Chapter 27 Earned Value The Concept The Earned Value Process The Value of Earned Value Conclusion Chapter 27 Review Questions Case Study 27.1 The Importance of Earned Value Chapter 28 The Brick Wall The Brick Wall Example Earned Value Brick Wall Conclusion Chapter 28 Review Questions Case Study 28.1 The Brick Wall Chapter 29 Measuring Accomplishment Work Packages

10 x Table of Contents Typical Work Packages Discrete Effort Milestone Definition Incremental Milestone Technique /50 Technique /100 Technique Units Complete Technique Equivalent Units Technique Percent Complete Technique Apportioned Effort Level of Effort Other Earned Value Techniques When is Earned Value Credited? Other Comments Conclusion Chapter 29 Review Questions Case Study 29.1 Control Account Plan Exercise Chapter 30 Establishing the Performance Measurement Baseline Performance Measurement Baseline Development Rolling Wave Planning Performance Measurement Baseline Structure Timing of the Baseline Establishment Work Authorization Control Account Plan and Baseline Traceability Conclusion Chapter 30 Review Questions Case Study 30.1 Control Account Plan Exercise Chapter 31 Collecting Actual Cost Actual Cost Components Data Element Sources Accounting Interface with Project Management Cash Flow Considerations Material Costs Indirect Costs Late Reporting of Actual Costs Accuracy of Reported Actual Costs Estimated ACWP Reporting Labor Hours versus Labor Dollars Conclusion Chapter 31 Review Questions Chapter 32 Performance Measurement Calculations and Estimates at Completion Performance Measurement Calculations Developing the Estimate at Completion (EAC) Performance Indices Cost Performance Index (CPI) Schedule Performance Index (SPI) To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) Independent Estimates at Completion (IEAC) Preparing a Range of Estimates at Completion Percent Complete Estimated Completion Date (ECD)

11 Table of Contents xi Average Performance Rate Required to Achieve ECD Combining SPI with CPM Information Combining SPI with CPI (Labor Only) Reporting Report Formats Integrated Program Management Report Analyzing Material Cost Variances Analyzing Labor Cost Variances Earned Value and Cost/Schedule Impact Identification Conclusion Chapter 32 Review Questions Case Study 32.1 Project Performance Analysis Case Study 32.2 Control Account Analysis Chapter 33 Variance Analysis and Corrective Action Variance Analysis Variance Thresholds Variance Analysis Reports Heading Information/Earned Value Data Problem Analysis Impact Corrective Action Plan Estimate at Completion Justification Approvals Conclusion Chapter 33 Review Questions Case Study 33.1 Calculation of Cost and Schedule Variances Chapter 34 Baseline Revisions and Change Control Change Control Types and Causes of Changes Elements of a Change Control Program How to Control Changes Change Control and the Baseline Baseline Changes at the Control Account Level Incorporating Changes into the PMB Detailed Tracking of Changes Authorized Unpriced Work Internal Replanning Stop Work Orders Rubber Baseline Conclusion Chapter 34 Review Questions Case Study 34.1 Contract Budget Base Log Chapter 35 Subcontract Management Definition of Subcontracts Subcontract Flowdown Requirements Subcontract Requests for Proposals Subcontract Type Subcontractor Reporting Requirements Integrating the Subcontractor WBS Integrating the Schedule

12 xii Table of Contents Post Award Baseline Establishment Establishing the Schedule Baseline Establishing the Budget Baseline Prime Contractor Considerations for Subcontracts without EVMSG Requirements Cost Reimbursable Firm Fixed Price (FFP) Time and Materials (T&M) Technical Services Additional Considerations When Planning Subcontract Budgets Factoring Subcontract Budgets Special Organizational Situations Inter-Divisional Work Authorization (IDWA) Badgeless Organizations Revisions Directed Changes Internal Replanning Formal Reprogramming Subcontract Data Analysis Subcontract EVMS Reviews and Surveillance EVMS Guideline Compliance with Validation EVMS Guideline Compliance without Validation EV Reporting without EVMS Guideline Compliance Conclusion Chapter 35 Review Questions Case Study Section 4 Quiz SECTION 5 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT PROCESS Chapter 36 Implementation of the Project Management Process Background System Design System Description The Creation of Storyboards Identification of Areas Needing Improvement Hardware and Software Selection Development of Procedures and Training Material System Start-up Changes to System Operation Routine Operation Implementation Schedules Tailoring the System for Project Unique Requirements Conclusion Chapter 36 Review Questions SECTION 6 CONCLUSION, SOLUTIONS, AND REFERENCES Solutions Earned Value Analysis Formulas Abbreviations Glossary Bibliography Index About the Author

13 xiii List of Figures Chapter 1 Project Management Using Earned Value Figure 1-1 Shocking Surprises Figure 1-2 Budget Plan vs. Actual Cost Figure 1-3 Overrun or Ahead of Schedule? Figure 1-4 Underrun or Behind Schedule? Figure 1-5 Significant Overrun or Accelerated Schedule? Figure 1-6 A Performance Oriented Approach Provides Better Visibility Figure 1-7 Cost and Schedule Impacts Figure 1-8 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Chapter 2 Definition of Scope, Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and WBS Dictionary Figure 2-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure Megawatt WBS Figure 2-3 Boiler Plant Equipment WBS Figure 2-4 Coal Handling System WBS Figure 2-5 Storage and Preparation WBS Figure 2-6 Sewer Treatment Plant WBS Figure 2-7 Floor Covering WBS Figure 2-8 Consulting WBS Figure 2-9 DOE Project Summary WBS Figure 2-10 Sample Project WBS Software Development Project Figure 2-11 Sample Project WBS Software Development Project details Figure 2-12 Sample Project WBS Figure 2-13 CWBS Dictionary and Contract Figure 2-14 Element of Cost Orientation Figure 2-15 Phase Orientation Figure 2-16 Engineering/Design WBS Figure 2-17 Engineering/Design WBS Figure 2-18 Product - User Mapping Chapter 3 Managing Project Risks Figure 3-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 3-2 Managing Project Risks: The Process Figure 3-3 Sample Risk Register Figure 3-4 Widget Project Risk Register Chapter 4 Relating Organizations, Responsibility, and Work Scope Figure 4-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 4-2 Functional Organization Figure 4-3 Project Organization Figure 4-4 Weak Matrix Figure 4-5 Strong Matrix Figure 4-6 Balanced Matrix Figure 4-7 Composite Organization Figure 4-8 Responsibility Assignment Matrix (RAM) Figure 4-9 Responsibility Assignment Matrix and Control Account Structure Figure 4-10 Control Account Example Figure 4-11 Control Account Example Figure 4-12 Control Account Example Figure 4-13 Control Account Example

14 xiv List of Figures Chapter 5 Work Teams Figure 5-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 5-2 Typical Responsibility Matrix - Functional Alignment Figure 5-3 Potential Work Team Alignment Figure 5-4 Potential Work Team Alignment Figure 5-5 Potential Work Team Alignment Figure 5-6 Work Team Application - Example Figure 5-7 Work Team Application - Example Figure 5-8 Work Team Application - Example Chapter 6 What is Scheduling? Schedule Types Figure 6-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 6-2 Planning and Scheduling Figure 6-3 Gantt Chart Figure 6-4 Milestone Chart Figure 6-5 Bar Chart Figure 6-6 Combination Chart Figure 6-7 Modified Bar/Milestone Chart Figure 6-8 Process Flowchart Figure 6-9 Set Back Chart Figure 6-10 Line of Balance Chart Figure 6-11 Network Diagrams Chapter 7 Introduction to Network Logic Development Figure 7-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 7-2 Planning and Scheduling Figure 7-3 PDM Networks Figure 7-4 Finish to Start Figure 7-5 Finish to Finish Figure 7-6 Start to Start Figure 7-7 Start to Finish Figure 7-8 Time-Phased Diagrams - Variable Box Length Figure 7-9 Time Phased Bar Chart Chapter 8 Critical Path Method Fundamentals Figure 8-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 8-2 Planning and Scheduling Figure 8-3 Critical Path Figure 8-4 Standard Notation Figure 8-5 Forward Pass (Activity Early Dates) Figure 8-6 Forward Pass (Activity Relationship Early Dates) Figure 8-7 Forward Pass (Early Dates - Converging Paths) Figure 8-8 Forward Pass Figure 8-9 Backward Pass (Activity Late Dates) Figure 8-10 Backward Pass (Activity Relationship Late Dates) Figure 8-11 Backward Pass (Late Dates - Converging Paths) Figure 8-12 Backward Pass Figure 8-13 Early, Late Dates and Total Float - the Critical Path Figure 8-14 Free Float Calculation Figure 8-15 Total and Free Float Figure 8-16 Impact of Directed Finish Date - Negative Float Figure 8-17 Impact of Directed Finish Date - Positive Float Chapter 9 Resource Loading and Leveling the Schedule Figure 9-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process

15 List of Figures xv Figure 9-2 Planning and Scheduling Figure 9-3 Resource Profile Figure 9-4 Skyline Chart Figure 9-5 Time and/or Resource Constraints Figure 9-6 Resource Boundaries Figure 9-7 Resource Boundaries - Time and Resource Floats Figure 9-8 Resource Boundaries - Less and More Critical Curves Chapter 10 Considerations for Developing a Useful, Quality Network Schedule Figure 10-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 10-2 Planning and Scheduling Figure 10-3 Top Level Schedule - Contractual Milestones Figure 10-4 Unit A Top Level Schedule Figure 10-5 Unit A Widgets 1 and 2 Engineering Schedule Figure 10-6 Unit A Widget 1 Engineering Schedule Figure 10-7 Integrated Master Plan for the Widget Project Figure 10-8 Coding Relationship Between WBS, IMP, IMS Figure 10-9 Hammock Figure Summaries Using Code Fields Figure Grouping Facility Showing Total Float by CAM Figure Templates Figure Legend for the Examples Figure Finish to Start with Lag Figure Start to Start with Lag Figure Finish to Finish with Lag Figure Parallel Start to Start and Finish to Finish Relationships with Lags Figure CPM Calculations - Start to Start Relationship Figure CPM Calculations - Finish to Finish Relationship Figure CPM Calculations - Activity B Date Possibilities Figure CPM Calculations - Activity B Dates Figure CPM Calculations - Effective Duration for Activity B Figure Schedule Margin Using Buffer Activity Figure Qualitative Selection Criteria for Schedule Detail Figure Missing Logic - Goal: 5% or Less Figure Leads - Goal: 0% Figure Lags - Goal: 5% or Less Figure Relationship Goals Figure Hard Constraints - Goal: 5% or Less Figure High Total Float of 44 Working Days or More - Goal: 5% or less Figure Negative Float - Goal: 5% or Less Figure Durations Greater than 44 Working Days - Goal: 5% or less Figure Invalid Dates - Goal: 0% Figure Missing Resources on Activities with Durations of 1 Day or More - Goal: 0% Figure Missed Activities - Goal: < 5% Figure Critical Path Test, Before and After Figure CPLI Graphic Highlighting the.95 Threshold Figure Baseline Execution Index Figure Health Check/GASP Correlation Chapter 11 Schedule Acceleration Techniques Figure 11-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 11-2 Planning and Scheduling Figure 11-3 Activity Crashing Concept Figure 11-4 Crashing a Network - An Example Figure 11-5 Step 1 and Step 2-6 Weeks

16 xvi List of Figures Figure 11-6 Step 3 - Identify Crash Time and Crash Costs for Each Activity Figure 11-7 Cost of Crashing Activity A Figure 11-8 Step Figure 11-9 Step 5 and Step Figure Step Figure Alternatives Figure Weeks Cost Figure Weeks Cost Figure Weeks Schedule Figure Weeks Cost Figure Project Cost vs. Time Relationship - The Tradeoff Curve Chapter 12 Setting a Traceable Schedule Baseline Figure 12-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 12-2 Planning and Scheduling Figure 12-3 Horizontal Traceability Between Same Level of Detail Figure 12-4 Vertical Traceability Between Different Levels of Detail Figure 12-5 Milestones Figure 12-6 Vertical Traceability Coding Schema Figure 12-7 Baseline Change Request Chapter 13 Updating the Schedule Figure 13-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 13-2 Planning and Scheduling Figure 13-3 Calendar Figure 13-4 Impact of Status on Duration and Float Figure 13-5 PDM Network Figure 13-6 Schedule Bar Chart Figure 13-7 Out-of-Sequence Progress - Retained Logic Option (PDM Network) Figure 13-8 Out-of-Sequence Progress - Retained Logic Option (Bar Chart) Figure 13-9 Out-of-Sequence Progress - Progress Override Option (PDM Network) Figure Out of Sequence Progress - Progress Override Option (Bar Chart) Figure Impact on Total Float - Sample Network Figure Impact on Total Float - Retain Logic Option Figure Impact on Total Float - Progress Override Option Chapter 14 Schedule Changes Figure 14-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 14-2 Planning and Scheduling Chapter 15 Resolving Negative Float Figure 15-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 15-2 Planning and Scheduling Figure 15-3 Trend in Float by Path Figure 15-4 Baseline vs. Current - Date and Duration Variances Figure 15-5 Resolution Alternatives Figure 15-6 Analysis - Most Critical Activities Figure 15-7 Analysis - Number of Critical Activities Figure 15-8 Analysis - Number of Activities On or Behind Schedule Chapter 16 Special Networking Considerations Figure 16-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 16-2 Planning and Scheduling Figure 16-3 Start Not Earlier Than Constraint Figure 16-4 Delayed Activity Using a Milestone

17 List of Figures xvii Figure 16-5 Start Not Earlier Than Constraint Bypassed Figure 16-6 Delay Using a Schedule Visibility Task Figure 16-7 Small Project Bar Chart Figure 16-8 Start Not Earlier Than Constraint Figure 16-9 Finish Not Later Than Constraint Figure Must Start On Constraint Figure Must Finish On Constraint Figure Finish Date Constrained Network - Imposed Date Earlier Than Calculated Date Figure Constraint Date Spectrum Figure Sample Network - Total Float Calculations Figure Comparing Total and Secondary Float Figure Total Float vs. Secondary Float Figure Parallel, SS/FF Relationships Figure Parallel, SS/FF Relationships Figure Parallel, SS/FF Relationships Figure Parallel, SS/FF Relationships Figure LOE Example Figure Alternate LOE Solution Chapter 17 Schedule Risk Assessment Figure 17-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 17-2 Planning and Scheduling Figure 17-3 Risk Assessment with CPM Figure 17-4 Risk Assessment with CPM Network Figure 17-5 Risk Analysis of the Project Figure 17-6 Building Foundation Activity Figure 17-7 Most Likely and Average Durations Figure 17-8 Low and High Possible Durations Figure 17-9 Risk Analysis of Path Duration Example Figure Constructing the S-Curve Figure Likelihood of Slippages and Contingencies Figure Cumulative Distribution for Path A Figure Validity of CPM Estimates Figure Identifying the Highest Risk Path Figure Identify the Highest Risk Path Figure Merge Bias at Convergence Figure Direct Dates Figure Reducing Durations to Fit the Schedule Figure Two Path Example Figure Late Starts on Path B Figure Early Starts on Path B Figure Schedule Risk Histogram Figure Cost Risk Histogram Figure Standard Deviation Figure Six Activity Network Example Figure PERT Calculations Figure Distribution Curve for Path U-V-X-Z Figure Distribution Curve for Path U-W-Y-Z Chapter 18 Scheduling in a Performance Measurement Environment Figure 18-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 18-2 Planning and Scheduling Figure 18-3 Schedule Integration - Schedules Must Tier Figure 18-4 WBS Levels vs. Schedule Levels

18 xviii List of Figures Chapter 19 The Estimating Process Figure 19-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 19-2 Estimating Topics Figure 19-3 Levels of Estimate Detail Figure 19-4 Levels of Estimate Detail Chapter 20 Types of Estimates Figure 20-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 20-2 Estimating Topics Figure 20-3 Types of Estimates Chapter 21 Estimate Development Figure 21-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 21-2 Estimating Topics Figure 21-3 The Estimating Process Figure 21-4 Inputs for Estimate Development Figure 21-5 Estimate Outputs Figure 21-6 Estimate Development Example Figure 21-7 Estimate Development Example Figure 21-8 Estimate Development Example Figure 21-9 Estimate Development Example Figure Level of Detail Summarization Chapter 22 Learning Curves Figure 22-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 22-2 Estimating Topics Figure 22-3 Learning Curve - Normal Coordinates Figure 22-4 Learning Curve - Log-Log Coordinates Figure 22-5 Learning Curve Showing End of Production Inefficiencies Chapter 23 Cost Risk Assessment Figure 23-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 23-2 Estimating Topics Figure 23-3 Normal Probability Distribution Figure 23-4 Uniform Probability Distribution Figure 23-5 Triangular Probability Distribution Figure 23-6 Actual Risk Simulation Results Figure 23-7 Cumulative Probability Curve Figure 23-8 Increased Iterations Figure 23-9 Right Skewed Example Figure Kurtosis Example Figure Other Considerations Example Figure Other Considerations Example Figure Other Considerations Example Chapter 24 Estimate Review Figure 24-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 24-2 Estimating Topics Chapter 25 Tracking the Estimate Figure 25-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 25-2 Estimating Topics Figure 25-3 Estimate Traceability Figure 25-4 Estimate History Form ($ x 1000)

19 List of Figures xix Chapter 26 Automating the Estimating Function Figure 26-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 26-2 Estimating Topics Chapter 27 Earned Value Figure 27-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 27-2 Budget Plan vs. Actuals Figure 27-3 Overrun or Ahead of Schedule? Figure 27-4 Planned Accomplishment Figure 27-5 Earned Value of a Task Figure 27-6 Planned vs. Actual Accomplishment Figure 27-7 What s Been Accomplished? What did it Cost? Figure 27-8 Earned Value is a Good Approximation Figure 27-9 Cost Variance Figure Schedule Variance Figure Cost and Schedule Impacts Chapter 28 The Brick Wall Figure 28-1 Budget vs. Actuals Figure 28-2 Four Days of Bricking Figure 28-3 Budget vs. Actual Day Five Figure 28-4 Planning Using Earned Value Figure 28-5 Detailed Planning for Day One Using Earned Value Figure 28-6 Earned Value after Day One Figure 28-7 Earned Value Status Day One Figure 28-8 Earned Value Status Day Two Figure 28-9 Earned Value Status Day Three Figure Earned Value Status Day Four Figure Earned Value Status Day Five Figure Earned Value Graphics Chapter 29 Measuring Accomplishment Figure 29-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 29-2 Incremental Milestone - Planning Figure 29-3 Incremental Milestone - Status Figure % / 50% - Planning Figure % / 50% - Status Figure % / 100% - Planning Figure % / 100% - Status Figure 29-8 Units Complete - Planning Figure 29-9 Units Complete - Status Figure Percent Complete - Planning Figure Percent Complete - Status Figure Apportioned Effort - Planning and Status Figure Level of Effort (LOE) - Planning Figure Level of Effort (LOE) - Status Chapter 30 Establishing the Performance Measurement Baseline Figure 30-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 30-2 Performance Measurement Baseline Figure 30-3 Rolling Wave Example Figure 30-4 Rolling Wave Example Figure 30-5 Reporting Structure Data Matrix Figure 30-6 Total Project Cost Distribution Figure 30-7 Elements of the Base and the Baseline

20 xx List of Figures Figure 30-8 Management Reserve Figure 30-9 Budget Summary Figure Work Authorization Document Chapter 31 Collecting Actual Cost Figure 31-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 31-2 Cost Element Examples Figure 31-3 Data Source Matrix Figure 31-4 Accounting Subsystem Interfaces with Project Management Figure 31-5 Material Accounting Figure 31-6 Material Measurement Figure 31-7 Matrix of Indirect Cost Figure 31-8 Indirect Analysis - An Example Chapter 32 Performance Measurement Calculations and Estimates at Completion Figure 32-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 32-2 Mixing Variances Figure 32-3 Graphical Schedule Conversion Figure 32-4 Trend Analysis Figure 32-5 Trend Analysis with Percentage Threshold Figure 32-6 Estimate at Completion Figure 32-7 To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) EAC Figure 32-8 Performance Indices Comparison Figure 32-9 Range of Estimates at Completion Figure Performance Measurement Data Concern Figure Combining SPI and TF Data Figure Combining SPI and CPI (Labor Accounts) Figure Performance Report - Work Breakdown Structure Figure Performance Report - Project Organization Figure Material Variance Components Figure Labor Cost Variance Components Figure Cost and Schedule Impacts Chapter 33 Variance Analysis and Corrective Action Figure 33-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 33-2 Data Traceability Figure 33-3 Variance Analysis Report Figure 33-4 Corrective Action Log Chapter 34 Baseline Revisions and Change Control Figure 34-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 34-2 Change Control Figure 34-3 Effect of Changes Figure 34-4 Control Account Figure 34-5 Control Account 1 Closeout Figure 34-6 Control Account 1A Figure 34-7 Contract Budget Base Log Figure 34-8 Baseline Change Request Figure 34-9 Internal Replanning Figure Rubber Baseline Chapter 35 Subcontract Management Figure 35-1 Earned Value Project Management: The Process Figure 35-2 Subcontract Risk Factor Figure 35-3 Relationship of Risk to Contract Type

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