Enterprise Communications: The New Market Order Allan Sulkin President, TEQConsult Group teqconsult.com

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1 Enterprise Communications: The New Market Order Allan Sulkin President, TEQConsult Group teqconsult.com 1

2 Market Today The Agenda Product & Application Issues Competitive Market Shares Competitor Evaluations: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Microsoft: Lurking in the Shadows What s Next on the Horizon 2

3 The Market Today IP Telephony (IPT) Rules the PBX Market Traditional digital PBXs have all but disappeared, but design elements remain in a few IPT system models More than two thirds of current PBX line station shipments are IP (desktop telephones, mobile devices, softphone clients); new digital endpoints are rapidly disappearing, but analog devices may NEVER die!! Unified Communications (UC) solutions are being positioned to replace the core PBX system Demand for traditional digital Key/Hybrid remains moderately strong, despite IPT in-roads 3

4 PBX Line Station Shipment Forecast Stations (millions) Source: TEQConsult Group IP TDM 4

5 PBX IP Line Station Installed Base Forecast (USA) Line Stations (millions) Source: TEQConsult Group IP TDM 5

6 Enterprise System Profile Line Station Shipments IPT System Design 10% 10% 66% 24% Analog Digital IP 45% 45% Converged Soft Switch IP-Enabled Source: TEQConsult Group 6

7 Ongoing IPTS Design Trends Accelerating R&D shift from hardware to software (20:80) with increased use of third party hardware components (servers, media gateways, voice terminals) Increased compliance with open industry standards, including: Linux O/S; SIP, SIP-Q; MGCP; SOA-compliant Web services (XML, VXML, SOAP, et al); ENUM; TLS; SRTP; et al Increased levels of Reliability, Redundancy & Resiliency 7

8 Where are We Headed? The FCS! The integration and convergence of IP telephony systems and UC solutions is currently taking place Presence management and social networking applications will play a greater role in real- and non real-time communications The era of the Federated Communications Server (FCS) is around the corner 8

9 Comparing Enterprise Communications Systems Across the Years Basic Design PBX ( ) Multi-carrier Cabinets IPTS ( ) Call Telephony Server with Distributed Media Gateways FCS (2010- ) Integrated Telephony/UC Server with Distributed Media Gateways Media-Focus Voice Voice Mixed (Voice, Data, Text, Video) Primary Endpoints Primary Hardware Source(s) Degree of Openness Desktop Analog &Digital Telephones System Supplier Proprietary Desktop Digital & IP Telephones System Supplier Proprietary & 3 rd Party Desktop IP Telephones, PC Client Softphones, Mobile Smartphones 3 rd Party Limited Moderate High 9

10 Unified Messaging Communications Applications: Successes and Failures Mixed Media Contact Center Installed Base Saturation ~30% Messaging Subscribers <4% Contact Center Agents Comments/Outlook Growing market acceptance with accelerating growth Stalled market acceptance; moderate gradual growth Unified Comm. <3% Line Station Users Still rolling out; strong potential growth VoWLAN <2% Line Station Users Stalled market acceptance; Moderate potential growth Cellular Extension Desktop Soft Phone (Primary) <2% Line Station Users Growing market acceptance; very strong potential growth <2% Line Station Users Gaining momentum with acceptance of UC solutions Desktop Video <1% Line Station Users Limited market acceptance; Long term gradual growth 10

11 Some Random Thoughts About UC UC is CTI grown up: Telephony systems + Client/Servers UC is a concept, not a single product or solution All enterprise communications products are packaged under the UC banner by some analysts Although demand for fully featured UC solutions is moderate, THE MEDIA continues to hype UC in overdrive mode as if everyone is buying 11

12 Multi-Tiered Market Competition The competitive North American enterprise communications market consists of: Leaders Followers (who think they are leaders) Followers (who know they are followers) The rest of the Pack: also-rans, has-beens, & startups The Top 6 system suppliers currently control about 95% of the large enterprise market (400+ line stations) 12

13 Leading PBX Players: Up, Down, Gone Positive Momentum Cisco, Avaya, Mitel, ShoreTel, Aastra Running in Place Siemens, 3Com, Alcatel-Lucent Seen Better Days Nortel, NEC Devoured Inter-Tel (Mitel), Ericsson (Aastra) 13

14 2007 North America Total CPE Market Leaders ( Based on Line Station Shipments) % Market Share Cisco Avaya Nortel Mitel NEC Toshiba Siemens Panasonic Vertical Others Source: TEQConsult Group Estimates 14

15 2007 North America PBX Market Leaders ( Based on Line Station Shipments) 30 % Market Share Cisco Avaya Nortel Mitel Siemens NEC ShoreTel 3Com ALU Others Source: TEQConsult Group Estimates 15

16 First Half 2008 North America CPE Market Leaders (Line Stations) Shipments (000) Cisco Avaya Nortel Mitel NEC Toshiba Siemens Others Source: TEQConsult Group Estimates 16

17 First Half 2008 North America PBX Market Leaders (Line Stations) Shipments (000) Cisco Avaya Nortel Mitel Siemens NEC ShoreTel Aastra 3Com ALU Others Source: TEQConsult Group Estimates 17

18 Up Close & Personal: Cisco Systems The Steamroller Widening market share lead Highly aggressive marketing and pricing tactics leveraging its dominant datacom position Narrowing its product capabilities gap Product weak spots: enterprise contact center, survivable remotes, multi-system networking Major issue to address: threat of Microsoft 18

19 Up Close & Personal: Avaya Who Are These Guys (& Gals)? Major executive staff changes beginning at the very top Background and experience mostly tangential to enterprise voice communications The strongest and most diverse product portfolio supported by largest North American direct sales/service force Product weak spots: S8700 model design, multiple UC-function servers Major issue to address: customer relations 19

20 Up Close & Personal: Nortel What Happened? 1990s marketing machine appeared to ground to a halt Giving aid and comfort to its enemy (Microsoft) Executive ranks filled with voice industry outsiders Virtual reliance on indirect distribution channels finally showed its limitations ( Cisco Effect ) Very strong product portfolio with market leadership in small systems segment Product weak spots: CS 1000E redundancy gaps & encryption Major issue to address: focusing on products or services 20

21 Against All Odds Up Close & Personal: Mitel Networks Maintained market share despite Cisco s growing presence Acquisition of Inter-Tel a smart move to expand direct channels and grow services revenues Executive management team stability Improving position in large systems market Competitive product portfolio with some unique attributes, e.g. Sun-based server and thin clients Product weak spots: Color display telephone instrument, very large system growth capacity Major issue to address: keeping pace with far larger market competitors 21

22 Up Close & Personal: Siemens Enterprise Networks The Nightmare is OVER!! After too long a wait, a new majority owner (Gores Group) was finally found: debt acquisition and cash investment funds, only Greater focus on North American market can be expected (despite a top-heavy Munich-based staff) New Job #1: revitalize market perception of company Only truly integrated IP telephony/uc system offering Product weak spots: survivable remotes, generic features Major issue to address: regaining market confidence and expanding distribution channels 22

23 Up Close & Personal: NEC Unified The Too Quiet Competitor A global leader with a low local profile; global marketing initiative launched late last year Lost ground in enterprise market owing to SV 7000 migration path limitations and delayed new products (SV8100/8300/8500) Strong small system market results have partially offset large system issues Has significantly improved its application solutions portfolio, especially UC; Sphere acquisition a major plus Product weak spots: SV7000 survivable remotes & geodistributed call control Major issue to address: reverse enterprise market losses and continue strengthening applications offers 23

24 Up Close & Personal: Aastra Supermarket of PBXs Has acquired four distinct PBX design platforms over the past few years: Intecom, Matra, Ascotel, & Ericsson Locally, Intecom and Ericsson have been on the decline for many years and losing customer base; maintaining and migrating the installed bases are paramount to future success (and survival) Continued marketing and sale of multiple product lines Intecom product weak spots: telephone instruments, dependence on third party software, survivable remotes Ericsson product weak spots: LIM port capacity, UC Major issue to address: merging & consolidation of product lines and raise market profile 24

25 Up Close & Personal: ShoreTel Mid-Market Niche Player Competitively priced offering for customers with basic telephony, multi-premises requirements Financials have recently taken a downward spin Big question is how far they can go against competitors with significantly greater resources Receives market attention disproportionate to its size and capabilities Product weak spots: contact center and UC applications; redundant design limitations; network failover Major issue to address: shore-up applications capabilities and finely target markets 25

26 Up Close & Personal: 3Com Network Systems Provider dabbling in Voice Corporate focus now appears to be data networking market in China Bain acquisition likely fell through due to national security concerns Has not been able to crack large systems market with appreciable success since it introduced its V7000 platform Too much reliance on third party solutions to shore up feature/application gaps Product weak spots: telephone instrument portfolio, applications (contact center, UC/mobility) Major issue to address: long term viability as a voice system competitor 26

27 Up Close & Personal: ALU Are They Still in the Game? Corporate focus is not the enterprise market; will it be Lucent/Avaya déjà vu all over again? European market leader, North American also-ran Product portfolio is competitive, but far greater marketing, sales and service support resources are required to make North American market gains (miniscule share more than 8 years after market reentry) Product weak spots: aging telephone instrument portfolio; network failover capabilities Major issue to address: greater corporate focus on North American market or close up shop 27

28 Microsoft: The Next Cisco? Microsoft is poised to be the next decade s Cisco Systems in the enterprise voice communications market Can leverage its dominant desktop software provider position to advance the market for integrated IP telephony/uc solutions Major positioning advantages include Office, Outlook, Office Communicator and Mobile Office Current product offering not ready for prime time (or even late night), but fully ready as a supplemental desktop or small work group option Can leverage more joint ventures, such as those with Nortel and Aspect, to accelerate big time market entry 28

29 Microsoft Office Communicator Software Powered VoIP - VoIP Capabilities Single click VoIP capabilities from within Office applications VoIP communications in the office, at home or on the road - Encrypted - No VPN required IM and video alongside - Call management capabilities Easy to use and configure Intelligent call routing based on presence and Office Outlook calendar 29

30 Microsoft s Core Software-Powered Architecture Servers OCS 2007 Front End Servers Inbound Routing Backend Server Mgt Access Registrar, Proxy, Presence Server Outbound Routing Voic Routing SQL Database Archiving/CDR Server Active Directory Server Mediation Server Conferencing Server (Audio, Video, Data) Speech Server (IVR) Exchange Server 2007 (Unified Messaging) 30

31 Microsoft OCS 2007 Configuration Options Option 1 Option 2 Simultaneous ringing on Office Communicator and legacy phone 31

32 IBM: The Un-Microsoft IBM strategy focuses more on peripheral UC applications than core telephony Presence/IM Messaging Collaboration Alternative to Microsoft for desktop applications software, but must work behind a full featured telephony system (not replace it) Multiple strategic alliances with leading telephony system providers, e.g., Siemens, Avaya, Nortel, Cisco, et al 32

33 IBM Lotus Sametime Product Family Source: IBM 33

34 IBM Sametime United Telephony IBM Lotus Sametime Unified Telephony software is designed to make it easy to access and manage telephone communications from inside the Lotus Sametime or Lotus Notes client Lotus Sametime Unified Telephony offering will extend the value of Lotus Sametime software as a platform for communications by providing the ability to: Initiate phone calls and take action on incoming phone calls from within the Lotus Sametime or Lotus Notes client on the front-end Connect multiple, mixed telephony systems on the back-end See phone presence in your Lotus Sametime client 34

35 A Few Market Prognostications Cisco will continue to increase its market share lead over Avaya and the pack while Microsoft gradually becomes a major enterprise voice player (sooner than later) More M&A: Nortel and ALU prime candidates Desktop UC clients will be ubiquitous by 2015 at which time mobile communications devices will begin to supplant desktop telephone instruments Business Process Integration (BPI) will be slow to takeoff on a wide-scale due to complex integration issues Hosted and open source solutions will not find great success in enterprise market, but will continue to find acceptance among small system customers 35

36 Thank You for Your Attention Questions? Allan Sulkin 36

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