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1 Teacher Retirement Trends in California: 2006/ /12 The Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning at WestEd Research conducted by SRI International

2 This policy brief was developed under the auspices of the Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning at WestEd, which is dedicated to improving teacher-development policy and practice. For nearly two decades, the Center has been steadfast in the pursuit of its mission to ensure that every student in California s elementary and secondary schools has a well-prepared, effective, and caring teacher. WestEd, a research, development, and service agency, works with education and other communities to promote excellence, achieve equity, and improve learning for children, youth, and adults. Funding for this policy brief, and the study on which it is based, was generously provided by the S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation. This brief is available online at Suggested citation: Black, A., Tiffany-Morales, J., Tyler, N., and Sarnoff, R. (2013). Teacher Retirement Trends in California: 2006/ /12. A report by the Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning at WestEd. San Francisco: WestEd WestEd. All rights reserved. Requests for permission to reproduce any parts of this brief should be directed to: WestEd Publications Center 730 Harrison Street San Francisco, CA , fax or ii

3 CONTENTS Exhibits... iv Introduction... 1 Data Sources and Methods... 3 Age Distribution of California Teachers... 4 Retirement Patterns of California Teachers The Future of California s Teacher Workforce References Appendix A: Methods Appendix B: Descriptive Tables iii

4 EXHIBITS Exhibit 1: Age Composition of California Teacher Workforce, by Year... 4 Exhibit 2: Distribution of Working Teachers and Retirees, 2006/07 and 2011/ Exhibit 3: California Regions as Defined by the California County Superintendents Educational Services Association and Size of Teacher Workforce by County and Region, 2011/ Exhibit 4: Mean Age of Working Teachers and Teacher Retirees, by Year... 7 Exhibit 5: Statewide and Regional Percentage of Teachers at Retirement Age, by Year... 8 Exhibit 6: Estimated Number of Teacher Retirements, by Year Exhibit 7: Estimated Teacher Retirement Rates, by Year Exhibit 8: Student Enrollment Change, 10-Year Projection (2011/12 to 2021/22) Exhibit B-1: Mean Age of Teachers in California by Year and Region Exhibit B-2: Retirement Rate (Percentage) by Region and Year Exhibit B-3: Percentage of Teachers Aged 63 or Greater by Region and Year Exhibit B-4: Percentage of Teachers Aged 50 or Greater by Region and Year Exhibit B-5: Teacher Count by County and Year Exhibit B-6: Retirement Rate (Percentage) by County and Year Exhibit B-7: Percentage of Teachers Aged 63 or Greater by County and Year Exhibit B-8: Percentage of Teachers Aged 50 or Greater by County and Year Exhibit B-9: Student Enrollment Projections (Pecentage) for 1, 5 and 10 Years iv

5 INTRODUCTION In the late 1990s, California s class-size-reduction policy, combined with steady enrollment growth and attrition of teachers from the profession, created a surge in demand for teachers. Faced with a shortage of fully credentialed teachers who were willing to work in schools serving primarily low-income, minority, or low-performing students, many of the states districts began hiring large numbers of teachers who did not hold a full credential (Shields, et al., 1999; Dawson & Billingsley, 2000). By 2000/01, California public schools employed over 42,000 teachers who had yet to complete the requirements for a full teaching credential (Guha, Shields, Tiffany-Morales, Bland, & Campbell, 2008). Those days of tens of thousands of underprepared teachers have subsided, but it took many years for the supply of willing and fully credentialed teachers to catch up and meet demand. Concerned that the state s K 12 public education system may be vulnerable to future teacher shortages, researchers, policymakers, and reporters have been paying special attention to teacher retirements as a potential driver of shortages (Mitchell, 2013; Lin, 2012). The graying of the overall U.S. workforce has raised concerns that a shortage of workers, including teachers, is on the horizon (Dillon, 2009; Obama, 2009; Singleton-Rickman, 2008). The Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning at WestEd commissioned SRI International to identify current retirement trends for California teachers and, also, to examine what those trends suggest for future teacher demand. In doing so, SRI researchers used the most current data available (2006/07 through 2011/12) to investigate trends both in the age distribution of California s teacher workforce and in teacher retirements. Researchers also reviewed enrollment projections from the Department of Finance and recent reports from the Commission on Teacher Credentialing to investigate other possible factors in teacher supply-and-demand trends. The key findings for the six-year study period from 2006/07 through 2011/12 follow. The number of public-school teachers age 63 and over increased by 43.2 percent, rising from 8,293 to 11,879, but the number of teachers between 50 and 62 decreased by 9.9 percent. Those trends, combined with an overall decrease in the size of the teacher workforce, kept the proportion of teachers at or above minimum retirement age (50) relatively constant, at about 34.5 percent of the workforce. This finding was true in all but a few regions of California with relatively small populations. The estimated average retirement age of teachers increased from 60.7 to The number of estimated annual teacher retirements peaked in 2009/10 at slightly over 10,500, or 3.5 percent of the teacher workforce, and remained at about 9,300, or 3.2 percent of the workforce, through 2011/12. The 2009/10 spike in estimated retirements does not seem to have led to an increase in the hiring of underprepared teachers, since the number of teachers with emergency-type permits declined in subsequent years (Suckow & Purdue, 2013). Indeed, the total number of teachers employed in California 1

6 public schools declined by 2.8 over the study period, even though the number of students enrolled increased by 0.5 percent. Taken together, these findings suggest that, over the next 5 to 10 years, 1 teacher retirements alone will not likely lead to a shortage of fully certified and willing teachers. Because the portion of California s teacher workforce that is over the minimum retirement age has remained constant and the average age of teacher retirement has been steadily increasing, there is little chance that retirements will increase significantly. Furthermore, the hiring trends after the 2009/10 retirement peak suggest that, depending on coinciding changes in enrollment and budgets, even a relatively large, sudden increase in retirements would not necessarily cause a shortage. Policy decisions and demographic changes are perhaps more likely to change the balance of the teacher labor market: For example, a new policy that reduces class sizes, increased funding that leads to increased hiring, or large increases in student enrollment could each contribute to a shortage, even if teacher retirements do not. This brief provides a short description of data sources and methods used for the analyses in this study (see the appendix for more details), followed by more-detailed findings about trends in teacher age and retirement during the study period, and highlights of other factors that may be more likely to lead to teacher shortages. More detail about methods is available in the appendix. 1 In the first 5 years after the study period, around half of the relatively large group of teachers in their 40s in 2011/12 will cross the threshold into retirement eligibility; 10 years after the study period, almost all of this group will be eligible for retirement, and many may choose to retire in subsequent years, perhaps causing a new surge in retirements. 2

7 DATA SOURCES AND METHODS Data on teacher retirements are not publicly available; in fact, no agency or organization collects statewide counts of teachers who retire directly from a classroom teaching assignment. The California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS) does not collect information on the positions that its members hold over their careers. Eligible members are teachers, school and district administrators, county office of education administrators, community college faculty, and anyone who served in any of these roles but left the profession before retirement. The CalSTRS data on annual retirements thus include many individuals who did not hold a classroom teaching assignment the year before retirement. In addition to the CalSTRS data, this brief relies on county-level counts of teachers by age obtained by special request from the California Department of Education (CDE). We sought to estimate the number of individuals who retired each year in each county in California and had held teaching assignments 2 the year before. To do that, we combined the CalSTRS and CDE data for each year of the study period 2006/07 through 2011/12 and estimated historical teacher retirements (counts and rates) for each age category by county and region by multiplying counts of CalSTRS retirees by the ratio of the number of teachers at a certain age to the CalSTRS members at the same age. To present geographic variation in teacher age and retirement rates, we grouped counties by the California County Superintendents Educational Services Association s 11 regions. County-specific data are presented in the appendix. 2 For the purposes of this brief, we define a teacher as "an employee of the school district who holds a position requiring certification and whose duties require direct instruction to the pupils in the school(s) of that district (see the CDE staffing data file layout at 3

8 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF CALIFORNIA TEACHERS Statewide Age Distribution We began our investigation by analyzing the trends in the age composition of California s teacher workforce. Given that retirement is age dependent, these trends signal likely future retirement patterns. CalSTRS members become eligible for retirement at 50 and may draw full retirement benefits at age 63. Our analysis of the changes in California s teacher workforce age distribution during the study period from 2006/07 through 2011/12 and particularly the change in the number of teachers at or near retirement age, show that the number of teacher retirements can be expected to decline over the next 5 to 10 years. Statewide, the number of teachers age 63 and over increased during the study period while the number of teachers between ages 50 and 62 decreased. Between 2006/07 and 2011/12, the overall teacher workforce declined by almost 17,000 teachers (exhibit 1). Over that time period, the age composition of the workforce shifted significantly. Most notably, the number and percentage of teachers under age 30 declined sharply as districts across the state dismissed teachers under the fiscal pressures of the Great Recession (Freelon, Bertrand, & Rogers, 2012). 3 Around 10,000 teachers in their 50s left the workforce as well, shifting the older end of the distribution to a more even spread between teachers in their 40s and 50s. Age 2006/ / / / / /12 N 42,214 41,914 38,973 32,322 26,384 25,583 Under 30 % N 87,269 89,147 89,446 88,063 84,033 84, to 39 % N 72,018 72,629 73,378 75,424 76,772 80, to 49 % N 98,217 97,019 94,675 93,245 88,852 88, to 62 % N 8,293 9,164 9,632 10,553 10,943 11, and over % Total N 308, , , , , ,101 Source: The California Department of Education provided age data through a special request. 3 Because state law (Education Code section 44955) requires seniority to be a factor in most layoff decisions, and because there was such a large decrease in the number of young teachers, it is likely that many teachers who received pink slips were on the younger end of the age distribution. 4

9 The age distribution in 2006/07 had two peaks, one at around age 35 and another at around age 55 (see exhibit 2). Such a distribution had been the norm in prior years, dating back to at least 2002/03 (Wechsler et al., 2007). However, by 2011/12 the peak at age 55 had disappeared while the younger peak had grown and shifted to a slightly older center. Whereas the percentage of teachers under 30 declined, from 13.7 to 8.8 percent, during the study period, the percentage of teachers in their 40s increased, from 23.4 to 27.6 percent. At the same time, the number of teachers age 50 to 62 dropped by more than 10,000 and the number of teachers 63 and over increased by a little more than 3,500. As a result of these shifts, about 6,000 fewer teachers age 50 and over were in the workforce in 2011/12 compared to 2006/07. This has significant implications for retirements because now the number of teachers nearing retirement will stay constant or decline in the next 5 to 10 years Working Teachers 6000 Retirees Age (years) Source: CDE provided teacher age data through a special request. The California State Teachers Retirement System provided member retirement age data through a special request. Note: Calculations based on retirement data for The California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS) members were adjusted to approximate the number of member retirements at each age who were teachers as opposed to school or district administrators or other non-teacher CalSTRS members. See appendix A for details. The age distribution of teacher retirees did not change significantly during the study period, although teachers tended to retire slightly later in 2011/12 than in 2006/07. Our analysis of the estimated age distribution of teacher retirees demonstrated that most teachers retired in roughly the same age span in 2006/07 and in 2011/12. In these years and each year in between, approximately 80 percent of retiring teachers retired between the ages of 56 and 67 (see exhibit 2). The average retirement age for teachers, however, increased by 1 year during the same period, from 60.7 to This pattern makes it even less likely that the increased numbers of teachers over age 63 in more recent years will lead to a large increase in the number of retirements in the near term, because the teachers in that group are more apt to delay their retirement than were their counterparts in prior years. 5

10 Regional Age Distribution Statewide analyses can mask variations in teacher workforce trends among regions and counties. We used the regions defined by the California County Superintendents Educational Services Association (CCSESA) to investigate geographic variation in workforce trends. Exhibit 3 is a map of the counties in each CCSESA region, with the number of teachers employed within each region in 2011/12, and the relative size of the teacher workforce by county. Source: The California Department of Education provided teacher workforce data by special request. Note: For detailed teacher counts by county, see appendix B, exhibit B-5. a Riverside, Inyo, Mono, and San Bernardino 6

11 With a few notable exceptions, the mean age of both working teachers and teacher retirees varied little among California regions. During the study period, the mean age of teachers in 9 of the 11 CCSESA regions stayed within about 1 year of the statewide average (see exhibit 4). The range of the means was 42 to 44 years old in 2006/07, and it increased to approximately 43.5 to almost 45 years old by 2011/12. Two regions in the northernmost part of the state, Northeastern and North Coast, do have a somewhat older teacher workforce; the average teacher in those regions was about 47 years old in 2011/12. Because these two regions also had the fewest teachers (4,785 and 6,385, respectively, in 2011/12), their older teacher workforce did not noticeably affect the state average age. Source: The California Department of Education provided teacher age data through a special request. The California State Teachers Retirement System provided member retirement age data through a special request. For details, see appendix B, exhibit B-1. Consistent with the statewide distribution trends for teacher age, the estimated mean teacher retirement age by region increased slightly over the study period. The estimated mean teacher retirement age increased by about 1 year in each region but remained within a year of the statewide average retirement age of 61.7 years (see exhibit 4). This pattern is roughly in line with national trends: The mean retirement age for all workers nationwide rose from 60 to 61 between 2007 and 2013 (Brown, 2013). As with teacher ages overall, the regions were fairly similar in the estimated average age of teacher retirees. 7

12 The percentage of teachers at or nearing retirement age changed little in California as a whole, although their proportion varied slightly between regions. The proportion of the state s teacher workforce age 50 and over remained constant statewide between 2006/07 and 2011/12, at about 34.5 percent (see exhibit 5). On the other hand, the percentage of public school teachers in California age 63 and over increased during the study period, from 2.7 to 4.1 percent of the workforce. As mentioned above, this represented an increase of about 3,500 teachers, or 1.4 percent of the overall teacher workforce. Source: The California Department of Education provided teacher age data through a special request. For details, see appendix B, exhibits B-3 and B-4. With the exception of two outliers, the regions had relatively similar proportions of teachers at or above age 50 in 2006/07, and the variation among those regions had narrowed by 2011/12. In 2006/07, between 32 and 38 percent of teachers across these regions were age 50 or over; by 2011/12, that range had tightened to 33 to 36 percent (see exhibit 5). The two outlier regions were North Coast and Northeastern. Each had much higher proportions of retirement-age teachers throughout the study period, with approximately 45 percent of their teachers at or over age 50. The Los Angeles, Central Coast, and Bay Area regions stood out from the state average in 2011/12 in the proportion of their teachers who were age 63 and over. While the state average was 4.1 percent, in each of these regions, nearly 5 percent of the teachers were age 63 or older (see exhibit 5). However, teachers in these regions also tended to retire later than teachers in the other regions (see appendix B, exhibit B-1). 8

13 Summary of Age Distribution Findings Our analysis demonstrated that the pool of California teachers nearing retirement shrank between 2006/07 and 2011/12. Statewide, the number of teachers at or over the minimum eligible age for retirement decreased by about 6,000. Although two regions differed significantly from the state average, little variation in the proportion of teachers over age 50 was evident in the remaining 11 regions. Although the number of teachers over age 63 increased during the study period, this group still constituted a relatively small portion (4.1 percent) of the state s teacher workforce as of 2011/12. Moreover, the state s average retirement age increased during the same period, which suggests that some older teachers will remain in the workforce longer than teachers in the same age group did in the past. In any case, even if historically large numbers of teachers age 63 and over were to retire in the next 5 to 10 years, the considerably smaller pool of teachers age 50 to 62 in 2011/12 suggests that sustained increases in the annual number of retirements are unlikely. The next section of this paper looks in detail at historical patterns in the annual number of retirements to see what they might imply for the future. 9

14 RETIREMENT PATTERNS OF CALIFORNIA TEACHERS Statewide and Regional Teacher Retirements The Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning at WestEd and SRI have been tracking teacher retirements for over a decade. Prior studies showed large increases in teacher retirements and retirement rates between 1999/2000 and 2003/04. A two-year dip in retirements followed, but annual retirements and retirement rates began to increase again in 2006/07 (Guha et al., 2008). Studies conducted by WestEd during the same period predicted that annual teacher retirements in California would increase significantly between 2006/07 and 2009/10 and would subsequently decline (White & Fong, 2008). Our findings validated those projections, although the magnitude of the increase was much greater than anticipated: California experienced a significant spike in 2009/10 in the number of teachers retiring annually, and some regions experienced a greater shock than others. Data from CDE and the Commission on Teacher Credentialing (CTC), however, showed that this spike did not result in an increase in the number of underprepared teachers (Purdue & Suckow, 2013), most likely because budget cuts were forcing local education agencies to reduce the size of their workforces. Statewide, annual teacher retirements peaked in 2009/10. Between 2006/07 and 2008/09, estimated teacher retirements increased gradually from 7,485 to 8,339 (see exhibit 6), or 2.4 to 2.7 percent of the teacher workforce. In 2009/10, the number of retirements spiked by 27 percent over the prior year, with the number of retirements jumping by more than 2000, from 8,339 to 10,566, which accounted for 3.5 percent of the workforce. White and Fong (2008) had predicted that teacher retirements would peak at 8,042 in 2009/10. After the spike, teacher retirements in the state declined to 9,311 in 2010/11 and then went up again slightly, to 9,358, in 2011/12. Retirements in these last two years still exceeded the three years of pre-spike retirement numbers by about 1,000 teachers annually; the retirement rate in both 2010/11 and 2011/12 was about 3.2 percent of the workforce (see exhibit 6 for estimated state average teacher retirement rates). 10

15 Approximate Number of Teacher Retirements ,485 8,171 8,339 10,566 9,311 9,358 Bay Capital Central Coast Central Valley Costa Del Sur Delta Sierra Los Angeles North Coast Northeastern RIMS Southern Source: The California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS) member retirement age data were provided by CalSTRS through a special request. Regional variation in retirement rates existed during the study period, with a few regions significantly exceeding the state average, particularly in the most recent years. As in the state as a whole, California s 11 CCSESA regions experienced significant fluctuations in teacher retirements during the study period both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the local teacher workforce. The retirement rate trends followed the state average in many regions, but differed in several regions. The Central Valley, for instance, experienced its retirement spike in 2010/11 rather than 2009/10. The magnitudes of the increase and subsequent decrease of the retirement rate in that region were much greater than in the state as a whole: The retirement rate went up by 1.7 percentage points and then fell by more than 2 percentage points between 2009/10 and 2011/12. As they did with their proportions of retirement-age teachers, the North Coast and Northeastern California regions differed most from the state average in their retirement rates. The retirement rates for North Coast and Northeastern California were higher than the state average of 2.4 percent in 2006/07 (4.5 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively) and grew at a faster pace, climbing to 7 percent in 2011/12 the Northeastern region with no sign of a decrease (see exhibit 7). 11

16 Percentage of Total Teacher Workforce 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Bay Capital Central Coast Central Valley Costa Del Sur Delta Sierra Los Angeles North Coast Northeastern RIMS Southern State Source: The California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS) member retirement age data were provided by CalSTRS through a special request. The 2009/10 statewide spike in retirements did not lead to an increase in the hiring of novice or underprepared teachers. Rather, despite slight student enrollment growth, the total number of teachers employed in California public schools declined after 2009/10. Even though about 2,000 teachers retired in 2009/10, local education agencies, on average, did not increase their hiring of underprepared teachers to fill the vacancies. The proportion of teachers with permits rather than full credentials fell by 82 percent between 2008/09 and 2011/12 (Suckow & Purdue, 2013). Indeed, the retiring teachers apparently were not replaced at all because the total size of the teacher workforce declined by more than 8,500 between 2009/10 and 2011/12 (see exhibit 1). Thus, California did not experience a teacher shortage due to the 2009/10 retirement spike. Because student enrollment increased by 0.5 percent between 2009/10 and 2011/12 (California Department of Education Data Reporting Office, n.d.), the shrinking of the teacher workforce during this period is probably attributable to increases in class sizes resulting from budget cuts. 12

17 THE FUTURE OF CALIFORNIA S TEACHER WORKFORCE Implications of Retirement Trends The evidence indicates that an increase in teacher retirements great enough to significantly diminish the supply of teachers in California is unlikely in the next 5 to 10 years. Although the number of teachers eligible for maximum benefits (over age 63) rose by 3,586 between 2006/07 and 2011/12, at 9,720, the decrease in the number of teachers between 50 and 62 was much larger. Thus, the number of teacher retirements annually is likely to decline in the next 5 to 10 years. Furthermore, annual retirements peaked in 2009/10 at levels well above those researchers expected. Not only did this peak contribute to the diminution of the pool of teachers nearing retirement, it also showed that a large increase in retirements alone does not necessarily create a teacher shortage. However, if a spike of similar magnitude were to happen at a time when demand for teachers was higher because of decreases in class sizes or substantial increases in enrollment or both, the combination of all three factors might create another gap between open positions and the number of fully credentialed teachers available and willing to fill them. Retirements may not play a significant role in changes in the supply of teachers in the near future, but recent policy changes and potential demographic shifts may change California s education landscape. Policymakers and researchers would do well to look in both areas for signs of impending shocks to the teacher labor market. We suggest, below, a few areas that may be worth investigating. Teacher Candidate Pool In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the demand for teachers in California far outstripped the supply of candidates, and thousands of emergency-type permits were issued. Those permits were an indicator that the statewide pool of credentialed teacher candidates willing to accept these open positions was insufficient to meet demand. The 2011/12 teacher supply report from the Commission on Teacher Credentialing (Suckow & Purdue, 2013) suggests that the pool of candidates largely met demand between 2007/08 and 2011/12, even though fewer teachers are entering training programs each year. In 2007/08, the state issued more than 4,700 emergency-type permits, but by 2011/12 that number had dropped to 848. A closer look at credentialing trends could reveal other potential vulnerabilities for the candidate pool. However, the current candidate pool appears to be meeting most of the demand for teachers. Projected Changes in Student Enrollment The California Department of Finance (DOF) provides 10-year student enrollment projections by county. These projections identify counties that may face increased demand for teachers over the coming decade. The DOF enrollment projections show that we can expect significant variability among counties in their rates of growth and decline of K 12 enrollment. In particular, Southern California s Inland Empire (most notably Riverside County) is 13

18 expected to grow substantially between 2011/12 and 2021/22, while certain counties in the Sierra Nevada region are likely to see their student populations decline. Greater than 20% Decrease 10%-20% Decrease 0%-10% Decrease 0%-10% Increase 10%-20% Increase Greater than 20% Increase Source: California Department of Finance (2013). For further information, see appendix B, exhibit B-9. Class Size and the Local Control Funding Formula Although California s State Board of Education has yet to finalize the regulations for the Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF), the state s new school finance system includes funding for reduced class sizes (24 students per teacher) in kindergarten through third grade. Recent news reports show that many districts now have class sizes well over 24 students, suggesting that LCFF has the potential to spur an increase in the demand for teachers (Yamamura, 2013). More investigation is needed to understand precisely how great LCFF s effect on teacher demand is likely to be. Conclusion As we have seen, the retirement patterns and age distribution of California s teachers between 2006/07 and 2011/12 show few signs of an impending supply-side shock to the teacher labor market. Moreover, the most recent data on teacher credentialing indicate that the demand for teachers is being met, even though fewer teachers are being prepared each year than in the past (Suckow & Purdue, 2013). This equilibrium could be in jeopardy under new policies recently instituted in California. The LCFF with its funding for smaller class sizes in K 3 could increase the demand for teachers over the next several years. Given our state s history with class-size reduction driving rapid increase in teacher demand and a subsequent teacher shortage, policymakers and education stakeholders should closely monitor the implementation of the class-size provisions of the new funding formula and develop strategies for managing any potential teacher shortage. 14

19 REFERENCES Bland, J., Sherer, D., Guha, R., Woodworth, K., Shields, P., Tiffany-Morales, J., & Campbell, A. (2011). The status of the teaching profession Sacramento, CA: The Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning at WestEd. Brown, A. (2013, May 15). In U.S., average retirement age up to 61. Gallup Economy. Retrieved from California Department of Education Data Reporting Office (n.d.) K-12 public school enrollment: State of California. Retrieved from &cchoice=tsenr1&cyear= &clevel=state&ctopic=enrollment&mytimeframe=s Dawson, T. C., & Billingsley, K. L. (2000). Unsatisfactory Performance: How California's K-12 Education System Protects Mediocrity and How Teacher Quality Can Be Improved. Dillon, S. (2009). Report envisions shortage of teachers as retirements escalate. The New York Times. Retrieved from Freelon, R., Bertrand, M., & Rogers, J. (2012). Overburdened and underfunded: California public schools amidst the Great Recession. REMIE: Multidisciplinary Journal of Educational Research, 2(2), Guha, R., Shields, P., Tiffany-Morales, J., Bland, J., & Campbell, A. (2008). California s teaching force 2008: Key issues and trends. Santa Cruz, CA: The Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning. Lin, J (March 7, 2012). State faces teacher shortage as more retire, fewer enter profession. California Watch. Retrieved from Mitchell, D.E. (July 12, 2013). California facing a severe teacher shortage. San Jose Mercury News. Retrieved from Obama, M. (2009). Teachers are key to a successful economy. US News and World Report. Retrieved from Shields, Patrick M., Esch, Camille E., Humphrey, Daniel C., Young, Viki M., Gaston, Margaret, & Hunt, Harvey. (1999). The Status of the Teaching Profession: Research Findings and Policy Recommendations. A Report to the Teaching and California's Future Task Force. Santa Cruz, CA: The Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning Singleton-Rickman, L. (2008). U.S., state face teacher shortage in next decade. Times Daily. Retrieved from Suckow, M., & Purdue, R. Commission on Teacher Credentialing. (2013). Teacher supply in California: A report to the legislature, annual report Retrieved from 15

20 Wechsler, M., Tiffany-Morales, J., Campbell, A., Humphrey, D., Kim, D., Shields, P., & Wang, H. (2007). The status of the teaching profession Santa Cruz, CA: The Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning. White, M. E., & Fong, A. B. (2008). Trends in California teacher demand: A county and regional perspective. Washington, DC: Institute for Education Science, US Department of Education. Yamamura, K. (2013, January 20). California retreats on class-size reduction. The Sacramento Bee. Retrieved from 16

21 APPENDIX A: METHODS The California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS) serves current certified educators in grades prekindergarten through 12 and community college, as well as those who have left the profession but receive benefits due to their former employment in a public school system. CalSTRS data do not track what position members and retirees hold (or held) in their school or agency (e.g., teacher, school or district administrator), nor do they identify individuals who left the teaching profession prior to drawing retirement benefits. These data limitations required us to estimate retirements for teachers as follows: Because this analysis focuses on retirement trends of teachers in the PK-12 system (including charter schools) alone, we removed records for community colleges and other non-pk12 public school agencies. To approximate the retirement trends for teachers only (i.e., excluding former educators and administrators), researchers calculated the adjusted number of retired teachers (R*) and used the adjusted figure for all analyses. Following the method of Fong, et. al, researchers multiplied the ratio of the number of teachers (T) in the CDE data to the number of CalSTRS members (M) by the number of retired CalSTRS members (R) identified in the data for every age in every county in every study year: To explore retirement trends, we created a dataset that included summary statistics for the teachers and retirees at the statewide, regional and county level, combining data from CDE and CalSTRS at the county level. Data on the student enrollment projections from the Department of Finance were merged into this dataset. The final dataset enabled us to calculate all of the statistics presented in this brief at the various levels (statewide, regional, and county): the mean teacher age, the estimated mean retirement age for teachers, the estimated number of teacher retirees, the estimated teacher retirement rate, the percentage of teachers at peak retirement age, and the percentage change in student enrollment over 10 years (2011/12 to 2021/22). 17

22 APPENDIX B: DESCRIPTIVE TABLES Region 2006/ / / / / /12 Bay Capital Central Coast Central Valley Costa Del Sur Delta Sierra Los Angeles North Coast Northeastern RIMS Southern Statewide California All Teachers Retirees a All Teachers Retirees All Teachers Retirees All Teachers Retirees All Teachers Retirees All Teachers Retirees All Teachers Retirees All Teachers Retirees All Teachers Retirees All Teachers Retirees All Teachers Retirees All Teachers Retirees Source: SRI calculations based on data obtained by special request from the California Department of Education and The California State Teachers Retirement System. a Estimated mean age of teacher retirees. See appendix A for details. 18

23 Region 2006/ / / / / /12 Bay Capital Central Coast Central Valley Costa Del Sur Delta Sierra Los Angeles North Coast Northeastern RIMS Southern Statewide California Source: SRI calculations based on data obtained by special request from the California Department of Education and The California State Teachers Retirement System. Region 2006/ / / / / /12 Bay Capital Central Coast Central Valley Costa Del Sur Delta Sierra Los Angeles North Coast Northeastern RIMS Southern Statewide California Source: SRI calculations based on data obtained by special request from the California Department of Education and The California State Teachers Retirement System. 19

24 Region 2006/ / / / / /12 Bay Capital Central Coast Central Valley Costa Del Sur Delta Sierra Los Angeles North Coast Northeastern RIMS Southern Statewide California Source: SRI calculations based on data obtained by special request from the California Department of Education and The California State Teachers Retirement System. 20

25 2006/ / / / / /12 Alameda 10,927 11,400 11,274 11,151 10,766 11,096 Alpine Amador Butte 1,786 1,768 1,674 1,591 1,570 1,611 Calaveras Colusa Contra Costa 8,446 8,566 8,415 8,231 7,942 8,196 Del Norte El Dorado 1,519 1,539 1,525 1,495 1,446 1,466 Fresno 9,813 9,871 9,819 9,639 9,317 9,224 Glenn Humboldt 1,177 1,144 1,072 1,091 1,031 1,007 Imperial 1,764 1,774 1,755 1,725 1,675 1,676 Inyo Kern 8,398 8,526 8,460 8,288 8,131 8,325 Kings 1,410 1,456 1,517 1,577 1,519 1,658 Lake Lassen Los Angeles 79,547 79,881 78,355 75,831 73,237 73,808 Madera 1,455 1,452 1,444 1,464 1,424 1,444 Marin 1,725 1,758 1,745 1,786 1,768 1,813 Mariposa Mendocino Merced 2,825 2,836 2,757 2,659 2,530 2,504 Modoc Mono Monterey 3,451 3,498 3,479 3,263 3,272 3,443 Napa 1,123 1,143 1,146 1,093 1,019 1,032 Nevada Orange 22,909 22,910 22,538 21,482 20,663 20,619 Placer 3,320 3,370 3,452 3,404 3,267 3,549 Plumas Riverside 18,920 19,368 19,247 18,742 17,823 17,984 Sacramento 12,018 12,014 11,798 11,743 10,912 10,844 San Benito San Bernardino 19,335 19,583 19,183 18,655 17,718 17,795 San Diego 25,207 25,127 24,999 24,469 23,219 23,618 San Francisco 3,328 3,342 3,410 3,640 3,295 3,470 San Joaquin 6,766 6,778 6,846 6,806 6,253 6,509 San Luis Obispo 1,934 1,935 1,867 1,777 1,681 1,738 San Mateo 4,762 4,690 4,845 5,026 4,697 4,979 Santa Barbara 3,363 3,371 3,269 3,133 3,098 3,220 Santa Clara 12,994 13,088 13,145 13,172 12,714 12,864 Santa Cruz 1,942 1,913 1,838 1,875 1,869 1,881 Shasta 1,509 1,479 1,387 1,441 1,339 1,359 Sierra Siskiyou Solano 3,484 3,480 3,409 3,180 2,914 2,948 Sonoma 3,882 3,928 3,907 3,948 3,781 3,865 Stanislaus 5,277 5,296 5,082 5,031 4,781 4,861 Sutter 990 1,054 1,120 1,159 1,115 1,269 Tehama Trinity Tulare 4,600 4,675 4,652 4,633 4,545 4,370 Tuolumne Ventura 6,712 6,669 6,649 6,454 6,355 6,409 Yolo 1,552 1,546 1,512 1,526 1,425 1,499 Yuba Source: SRI calculations based on data obtained by special request from CDE. 21

26 2006/ / / / / /12 Alameda Alpine Amador Butte Calaveras Colusa Contra Costa Del Norte El Dorado Fresno Glenn Humboldt Imperial Inyo Kern Kings Lake Lassen Los Angeles Madera Marin Mariposa Mendocino Merced Modoc Mono Monterey Napa Nevada Orange Placer Plumas Riverside Sacramento San Benito San Bernardino San Diego San Francisco San Joaquin San Luis Obispo San Mateo Santa Barbara Santa Clara Santa Cruz Shasta Sierra Siskiyou Solano Sonoma Stanislaus Sutter Tehama Trinity Tulare Tuolumne Ventura Yolo Yuba Source: SRI calculations based on data obtained by special request from CDE and CalSTRS. Note: A - indicates that there were no retirements in that county during that year. 22

27 2006/ / / / / /12 Alameda Alpine Amador Butte Calaveras Colusa Contra Costa Del Norte El Dorado Fresno Glenn Humboldt Imperial Inyo Kern Kings Lake Lassen Los Angeles Madera Marin Mariposa Mendocino Merced Modoc Mono Monterey Napa Nevada Orange Placer Plumas Riverside Sacramento San Benito San Bernardino San Diego San Francisco San Joaquin San Luis Obispo San Mateo Santa Barbara Santa Clara Santa Cruz Shasta Sierra Siskiyou Solano Sonoma Stanislaus Sutter Tehama Trinity Tulare Tuolumne Ventura Yolo Yuba Source: SRI calculations based on data obtained by special request from CDE and CalSTRS. 23

28 2006/ / / / / /12 Alameda Alpine Amador Butte Calaveras Colusa Contra Costa Del Norte El Dorado Fresno Glenn Humboldt Imperial Inyo Kern Kings Lake Lassen Los Angeles Madera Marin Mariposa Mendocino Merced Modoc Mono Monterey Napa Nevada Orange Placer Plumas Riverside Sacramento San Benito San Bernardino San Diego San Francisco San Joaquin San Luis Obispo San Mateo Santa Barbara Santa Clara Santa Cruz Shasta Sierra Siskiyou Solano Sonoma Stanislaus Sutter Tehama Trinity Tulare Tuolumne Ventura Yolo Yuba Source: SRI calculations based on data obtained by special request from CDE and CalSTRS. 24

29 1-Year Percentage Change 5-Year Percentage Change 10-Year Percentage Change Alameda Alpine Amador Butte Calaveras Colusa Contra Costa Del Norte El Dorado Fresno Glenn Humboldt Imperial Inyo Kern Kings Lake Lassen Los Angeles Madera Marin Mariposa Mendocino Merced Modoc Mono Monterey Napa Nevada Orange Placer Plumas Riverside Sacramento San Benito San Bernardino San Diego San Francisco San Joaquin San Luis Obispo San Mateo Santa Barbara Santa Clara Santa Cruz Shasta Sierra Siskiyou Solano Sonoma Stanislaus Sutter Tehama Trinity Tulare Tuolumne Ventura Yolo Yuba Source: SRI calculations based on data obtained by special request from CDE and CalSTRS. 25

30

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