The Future of Cloud Computing. Chris Chafin LTEC Professor Chris Faulkner

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1 The Future of Cloud Computing Chris Chafin LTEC Professor Chris Faulkner

2 First and foremost, Cloud Computing is the collective result of years of technological and computing evolution over the last 60 years. The main goals of Cloud Computing are Virtualization, ease of use and cutting costs. Over the years, Cloud Computing has evolved to meet all of these goals at this present time. It is not a secret that there are trends to popularity and development in the technology field. To understand where Cloud Computing might go in the future, we need to look back at its growth patterns from the 1950 s to the present day. After that we might be able to determine if the trend of growth we are currently seeing will stay constant, or plateau off and eventually even out. Computing has come a long way since the initial instances of Cloud Computing in the 1950 s. To understand where this subject will be in the future, one must have to look back to how Cloud Computing has progressed throughout history. Cloud Computing has had a slow and steady growth from the 1950 s to the late 1980 s and after that period there has been a large spike in the advancement of Cloud Computing from the early 1990 s and an even more rapid advancement and increase public awareness in the mid 2000 s. One can only speculate if this trend of rapid advancement has either plateaued or will continue at the current rate. In the early 1950 s, we saw our first instances of the Cloud Computing concept take form when large colleges and corporations were able to connect to large mainframes using client terminals that were solely used to communicate between the terminal and the mainframe. However, there were problems in the beginning. The problem that arose was downtime between the terminals and the mainframe, and several terminals were not able to access the mainframe at the same time. The solution was to allow for multiple terminals to connect to the mainframe and share the mainframe s CPU time. This process became known as time-sharing and was the first occurrence of what would become Cloud Computing. The period of time from the 1960 s to the late 1980 s saw time-sharing become an entity to be sold and provided as a service by certain companies. At this time, it was still expensive for businesses to host their own mainframes. The solution was to have a company specialize in providing static terminals to these businesses and host the time-sharing for them. This saw the development of companies such as Tymeshare, Dial Data and BBN. At the same time IBM was popularizing the Remote-Job Entry process associate with their own mainframes. The 2000 s saw Amazon revolutionizing their data centers. At the time, Amazon s data centers were only using 10% capacity at one time to keep room in case of spikes in traffic. After implementing cloud architecture, their efficiency increased dramatically. Amazon then began to host cloud services for other companies and in 2006 we saw the birth of Amazon Web Services. This began the trend we are seeing at this moment right now, where companies are hosting cloud services to other smaller companies, this is the reason for the huge spike in public appeal to Cloud Computing. The increased attention has led to increased investment from other companies and organizations into Cloud Computing.

3 Daryl Plummer, managing vice president and Gartner Fellow, has been quoted saying During the past 15 years, a continuing trend toward IT industrialization has grown in popularity as IT services delivered via hardware, software and people are becoming repeatable and usable by a wide range of customers and service providers. This is due, in part to the commoditization and standardization of technologies, in part to virtualization and the rise of service-oriented software architectures, and most importantly, to the dramatic growth in popularity of the Internet. (Pettey, 2008) The characteristics of virtualization and service-oriented software architectures are some of the main reasons that Cloud Computing has become so popular in recent years. The popularity trend is estimated to continue for at least another year. North Bridge Venture Partners and GigaOM Research just published the results of their third annual Future of Cloud Computing Survey for the 2013 year. The survey involved 57 companies that included Amazon Web Services, Critix, Eucalyptus, Microsoft, Red Hat, Ubuntu/Canonical and many others. The survey reported that at least 75% of the companies asked are utilizing some sort of cloud-based service which was up from 67% the previous year. GigaOM also went on to address that the market for Cloud Computing was worth an estimated $158.8 billion USD, which was up a full 126.5% from The driving force behind this stunning growth, main reason being a better cost of ownership, and the trend is projected to continue. The survey also took a look at the growth rates of the different cloud service models. Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) is the most popular cloud service with use from 63% of the organizations surveyed which has grown 8% from last year. This year, the fast growth title belongs to Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS), which rose a full 29% from last year reaching a number of 45% of businesses surveyed that utilize IaaS in some form or fashion. An interesting tidbit of information in this survey was the projected use of Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) in the next five years. The survey projected that in the next five years, the growth in use of PaaS was expected to be 72%. In that time frame, PaaS is projected to overtake IaaS as one of the fastest growing service models. The survey also looked at primary reasons as to why these businesses have adopted cloud platforms in the first place: Agility and scalability are the primary drivers for cloud adoption. However, the need for cloud services to support mobility and the ability for continuous innovation to drive competitive advantage through more integrated business processes are all key drivers for the future. More than half of respondents cited business agility (54.5%) and scalability (54.3%) as the main drivers. Cost is close behind with 48% citing it as a driver. Mobility is the next major driver with a quarter of the respondents recognizing that mobility is powered by cloud services. And innovation (22%) as delivered continuously from the cloud is ultimately leading to competitive advantage (14%). Cloud APIs are also cited as important this year as users look to move beyond stove pipe applications to more integrated business services. (Jones, 2013) With the forecast pointing towards continuous large growth, there are leaders who speculate that adoption of cloud structures will be inevitable in all aspects of the Information Technology field at some point in time. Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt agrees that

4 adoption of Cloud Computing will become the norm. Schmidt was quoted as saying "Today, moving to the cloud is not a questionable proposition - it's inevitable," (ProofPoint, 2013) Schmidt wrote. "This is good news for IT staff, who don't need to spend time maintaining servers and installing upgrades, and also for employees, since the cloud makes it easy to collaborate and get more stuff done quickly." (ProofPoint, 2013) This, coupled with a decline of security concerns being an inhibitor of cloud architecture adoption, can be a make Schmidt s statement valid in the coming years. As of March 2013, cloud vendors are growing at a rate of 90% a year. (FSN, 2013) This kind of growth is obviously not sustainable however; Cloud Computing has already made itself a mainstay in the information technology field. So we know that it is not going anywhere anytime soon. The appeal of cloud vendors is the driving factor that many businesses see when they choose to invest in Cloud Computing. The notion that somebody else can do the heavy lifting when it comes to provisioning applications and infrastructure is appealing for organizations that wish to focus on their core business and avoid the distractions of information technology. David Smith, Head of Finance of Alternative Future Group explained why his company invested in cloud services from Adaptive Planning We did not want to be tied into an expensive legacy system. Clear plan had already built a proof-of-concept which illustrated that Adaptive Planning could do what we wanted. The set up costs were low and with a subscription model we could stop the arrangement if we wanted to The reader, at this point, can already see that Cloud Computing has cemented itself firmly into the Information Technology world. So what one can speculate about the future of Cloud Computing is that it will become a necessity in the technology world. In a world where business is obsessed with cost of operation, it is easy to see that the cost effectiveness of Cloud Computing is a reason that it could become a necessary operation in the future. At this moment, Cloud Computing is run as a perk or a bonus. There are many businesses that still use the CAPEX (Capital Expenditures) model and not the OPEX (Operating Expenditures) model when they invest in computing for their business. Given time, we could see that along with shared resources and ease of use, plus the added cost cutting advantages that Cloud Computing brings to the table, Cloud Computing can one day become a bare necessity in the world of computing and Information Technology.

5 References FSN. (2013, 03 05). The economy is flat so why are financials Cloud vendors growing at more than 90 percent per annum? Retrieved from fsn.co.uk: _vendors_growing_at_more_than_90_percent_per_annum#.ubmtspljpga/ Jones, E. (2013, 09 15) Future of Cloud Computing Survey. Retrieved from nbvp.com: Pettey, C. (2008, 06 26). Gartner Says Cloud Computing Will Be As Influential As E-business. Retrieved from Gartner.com: ProofPoint. (2013, 10 15). What the future of Cloud Computing could hold. Retrieved from ProofPoint.com:

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