Cloud Computing and the Coming IT Cambrian Explosion. Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Transcription

1 Cloud Computing and the Coming IT Cambrian Explosion Irving Wladawsky-Berger

2 Accelerating Advances in Information Technologies Source: Kurzweil 1999 Moravec

3 Accelerating Advances in Information Technologies Driving Costs Steadily Downward Source: Kurzweil 1999 Moravec

4 The Internet: Industrial Knowledge Economy 4

5 Internet Evolution Information Networking Communications World Wide Web e-business 5

6 e-business = Web + IT Industrial Strength Database Scalability Security Transactions Systems Mgmt Availability IT Web Universal Connectivity Standards TCP/IP HTML SSL GUIs HTTP Browsers Java Web Servers 6

7 Internet Evolution Shared, Distributed Virtual Systems Networking Communications Information Grid Computing IT On Demand 7

8 Virtualization Physical Internet computing power storage applications files data 8

9 9 Virtualization: Grid Computing Accessing and Sharing Resources over the Internet, or Private Intranets, based on Open Protocols

10 Internet Evolution Massive Scalability Billions of People,Trillions of Devices Shared, Distributed Virtual Systems Information Networking Communications Cloud Computing Virtual Access to Services 10

11 Cloud Metaphor! Massive Scalability 10X - 100X over the next decade 25% - 55% CGR for selected workloads Business and Consumer Services Real-time Information Web N.0 People, Devices, Sensors 11

12 12 Cambrian Explosions Business and Consumer Services

13 13 Cambrian Explosions Real-time Information

14 14 Cambrian Explosions Devices, Sensors, etc

15 Cambrian Explosions Continuing Web evolution Level of Interaction Web 2.0 Share and Collaborate Visual, Immersive Web Experience, Participate and Co-Create Early Web Access and Find 15 Time

16 16 Cambrian Explosions Cloud Computing and Enterprise Data Centers

17 New Enterprise Data Centers = Clouds + IT Industrial Strength, Universal Connectivity Content Browsers Java Standards Transactions Systems Mgmt Web Servers Availability Security IT Cloud Massive Scalability, Rich Diversity Business Services Devices Real-time Information Sensors Autonomic Mgmt Computing Capacity Consumer Services Storage & Content 17

18 IT infrastructure growth Spending (US$B) $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 Power and cooling costs Server mgmt and admin costs New server spending Installed Base (M Units) $ Source: IDC, Virtualization 2.0: The Next Phase in Customer Adoption, Doc #204904, Dec 2006

19 IT energy crisis " During the next 5 years, most datacenters will spend as much on energy as they do on hardware Data center watts/sq. ft Low High or earlier Current By 2011 Doesn t include energy needed to remove heat can increase overall power requirements by 80% to 120% 19 Source: Gartner, U.S. Data Centers: The Calm Before the Storm, ID #G , September 25, 2007

20 20 The IT Complexity Crisis Classic Complex Data Center

21 Evolution of manufacturing model Toyota Production System " Supply chain " Just-in-time production " Continuous improvement 21

22 22 Data Center Ensemble Approach To IT Simplification

23 Ensembles Mainframe service SAP application service Hybrid service Storage backup, archive service Database service WebSphere service x86 service File system service Virtual Client service DMZ appliance service Unix service Consolidation service 23

24 Virtualized, Federated Ensembles SOA/Grid Protocols Mainframe service SAP application service Hybrid service Storage backup, archive service Database service WebSphere service x86 service File system service Virtual Client service DMZ appliance service Unix service Consolidation service 24

25 Critical Requirements Flexible, Adaptable Architectural Frameworks Virtualization Integration Efficiency Management 25

26 A Stream of Disruptive Innovations Globalization Flat World Services Sciences Web 2.0 Mobile Devices Offshoring Ubiquitous Sensors Petaflop supercomputers Virtual Worlds Commoditization Real-time Information Emerging Economies Energy & Environment 26

27 Cloud Computing and the Coming IT Cambrian Explosion Irving Wladawsky-Berger