Conflict analysis. What is conflict analysis and why is it important? Purpose of chapter. Who should read it. Why they should read it CHAPTER 2

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1 CHAPTER 2 Confict anaysis Purpose of chapter This chapter expains: what confict anaysis is and why it matters how to undertake an anaysis Who shoud read it The chapter is aimed at practitioners in governments, civi society (oca and internationa) and donor organisations concerned with deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peacebuiding. The chapter may aso be of interest to others (eg in the private sector, the dipomatic fied, etc). Why they shoud read it Because confict anaysis is the foundation of confict sensitivity and without a good understanding of the context in which interventions are situated, organisations that support or directy impement them may unintentionay hep to fue vioent confict or to exacerbate existing tensions. Confict anaysis heps organisations towards a better understanding of the context in which they work, and a confict sensitive approach. Contents 1. What is confict anaysis and why is it important? 2. Key eements of confict anaysis 3. Working with indicators 4. Integrating confict anaysis and other forms of assessment 5. Better practice in confict anaysis 6. Choosing the right too for confict anaysis 7. Endnotes Annex 1. Toos for confict anaysis 1. What is confict anaysis and why is it important? Confict anaysis is the systematic study of the profie, causes, actors, and dynamics of confict (see Section 2). It heps deveopment, humanitarian and peacebuiding organisations to gain a better understanding of the context in which they work and their roe in that context. Confict anaysis can be carried out at various eves (eg oca, regiona, nationa, etc) and seeks to estabish the inkages between these eves (see Fig 1). Identifying the appropriate focus for the confict anaysis is crucia: the issues and dynamics at the nationa eve may be different from those at the grassroots. But whie inking the eve of confict anaysis (eg community, district, region or nationa) with the eve of intervention (eg project, sector, poicy), it is aso important to estabish systematic inkages with other interreated eves of confict dynamics. These inkages are important, as a of these different eves impact on each other.

2 2 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 For exampe, when operating at the project eve, it is important to understand the context at the eve at which the project is operating (eg oca eve), so the focus of the anaysis shoud be at that eve; but the anaysis shoud aso take account of the inkages with other eves (eg regiona and nationa). And simiary when operating at the regiona, sector or nationa eves. 2. Key eements of confict anaysis As discussed in Chapter 1, confict sensitivity is about: understanding the context in which you operate understanding the interaction between your intervention and the context acting upon the understanding of this interaction, in order to avoid negative impacts and maximise positive impacts. Confict anaysis is thus a centra component of confict-sensitive practice, as it provides the foundation to inform confict sensitive programming, in particuar in terms of an understanding of the interaction between the intervention and the context. This appies to a forms of intervention deveopment, humanitarian, peacebuiding and to a eves project, programme, and sectora. In other words, confict anaysis wi hep: to define new interventions and to confict-sensitise both new and pre-defined interventions (eg seection of areas of operation, beneficiaries, partners, staff, time frame). (Panning stage) to monitor the interaction between the context and the intervention and inform project set-up and day-to-day decision-making. (Impementation stage) to measure the interaction of the interventions and the confict dynamics in which they are situated. (Monitoring and evauation stage) This section synthesises the key eements of confict anaysis as they emerge from the various confict anaysis toos documented in Annex 1. Looking at each of these eements wi hep to deveop a comprehensive picture of the context in which you operate. Depending on your specific interest, however, you may want to emphasise particuar aspects of key importance. For exampe, if the emphasis is on the identification of project partners and beneficiaries, a good understanding of confict actors and how potentia partners and beneficiaries reate to them wi be the primary requirement. (See Box 2 in this chapter). Generay, good enough thinking is required. This means accepting that the anaysis can never be exhaustive, nor provide absoute certainty. Confict dynamics are simpy too compex and voatie for any singe confict anaysis process to do them justice. Nevertheess, you shoud trust your findings, even though some aspects may remain uncear. Do not be discouraged; some anaysis, no matter how imperfect, is better than no anaysis at a. The foowing diagram highights the common key features of confict anaysis, which wi contribute to understanding the interaction between the context and future/current interventions (see Chapters 3 and 4 for the project and sectora (sector wide) eves respectivey). The common features are the confict profie, actors, causes and dynamics. Each is further described beow.

3 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter Causes of confict In order to understand a given context it is fundamenta to identify potentia and existing confict causes, as we as possibe factors contributing to peace. Confict causes can be defined as those factors which contribute to peope s grievances; and can be further described as: structura causes pervasive factors that have become buit into the poicies, structures and fabric of a society and may create the pre-conditions for vioent confict proximate causes factors contributing to a cimate conducive to vioent confict or its further escaation, sometimes apparenty symptomatic of a deeper probem triggers singe key acts, events, or their anticipation that wi set off or escaate vioent confict. 2.1 Profie A confict profie provides a brief characterisation of the context within which the intervention wi be situated. BOX 1 Key questions for a confict profie What is the poitica, economic, and socio-cutura context? eg physica geography, popuation make-up, recent history, poitica and economic structure, socia composition, environment, geo-strategic position. What are emergent poitica, economic, ecoogica, and socia issues? eg eections, reform processes, decentraisation, new infrastructure, disruption of socia networks, mistrust, return of refugees and internay dispaced persons (IDPs), miitary and civiian deaths, presence of armed forces, mined areas, HIV/AIDS. What specific confict prone/affected areas can be situated within this context? eg, areas of infuence of specific actors, frontines around the ocation of natura resources, important infrastructure and ines of communication, pockets of sociay marginaised or excuded popuations. Is there a history of confict? eg critica events, mediation efforts, externa intervention. Note: this ist is not exhaustive and the exampes may differ according to the context Protracted conficts aso tend to generate new causes (eg weapons circuation, war economy, cuture of vioence), which hep to proong them further. As the main causes and factors contributing to confict and to peace are identified, it is important to acknowedge that conficts are muti -dimensiona and muti-causa phenomena that there is no singe cause of confict. It is aso essentia to estabish inkages and synergies between causes and factors, in order to identify potentia areas for intervention and further prioritise them. Some of the toos in Annex 1 eg Cingendae / Fund for Peace, RTC offer methods to assess the reative importance of different factors. Many toos deveoped for confict anaysis aso categorise confict causes or issues by governance, economics, security and socio-cutura factors. BOX 2 Key questions for an anaysis of confict causes What are structura causes of confict? eg iegitimate government, ack of poitica participation, ack of equa economic and socia opportunities, inequitabe access to natura resources, poor governance. What issues can be considered as proximate causes of confict? eg uncontroed security sector, ight weapons proiferation, human rights abuses, destabiising roe of neighbouring countries, roe of diasporas. What triggers can contribute to the outbreak / further escaation of confict? eg eections, arrest / assassination of key eader or poitica figure, drought, sudden coapse of oca currency, miitary coup, rapid change in unempoyment, food, increased price/scarcity of basic commodities, capita fight.

4 4 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 What new factors contribute to proonging confict dynamics? eg radicaisation of confict parties, estabishment of paramiitaries, deveopment of a war economy, increased human rights vioations, weapons avaiabiity, deveopment of a cuture of fear. What factors can contribute to peace? eg communication channes between opposing parties, demobiisation process, reform programmes, civi society commitment to peace, anti-discrimination poicies. Note: This ist is not exhaustive and the exampes may differ according to the context. Particuar attention shoud be paid to spoiers, ie specific groups with an interest in the maintenance of the negative status quo. If not adequatey addressed within the framework of preventive strategies, they may become an obstace to peace initiatives. Simiary, it is important to identify existing institutiona capacities for peace, in order to further define entry points to address causes of vioent confict. Capacities for peace typicay refer to institutions, organisations, mechanisms and procedures in a society for deaing with confict and differences of interest. In particuar, such actors need to be assessed in reation to their capacity for confict management, their egitimacy, the ikeihood of their engagement, and the possibe roes they can adopt. 2.3 Actors Peope are centra when thinking about confict anaysis. The Resource Pack uses the term actors to refer to a those engaged in or being affected by confict. This incudes individuas, groups and institutions contributing to confict or being affected by it in a positive or negative manner, as we as those engaged in deaing with confict. Actors differ as to their goas and interests, their positions, capacities to reaise their interests, and reationships with other actors (see Box 3). BOX 3 Interests, goas, positions, capacities and reationships Interests: the underying motivations of the actors (concerns, goas, hopes and fears). Goas: the strategies that actors use to pursue their interests. Positions: the soution presented by actors on key and emerging issues in a given context, irrespective of the interests and goas of others. Capacities: the actors potentia to affect the context, positivey or negativey. Potentia can be defined in terms of resources, access, socia networks and constituencies, other support and aiances, etc. Reationships: the interactions between actors at various eves, and their perception of these interactions. Some approaches distinguish actors according to the eve at which they are active (grassroots, midde eve, top eve). In particuar, confict transformation theory attaches great importance to midde eve eaders, as they may assume a cataytic roe through their inkages both to the top and the grassroots. In any case, it is important to consider the reationships between actors / groups at various eves and how they affect the confict dynamics. BOX 4 Key questions for an actor anaysis Who are the main actors? eg nationa government, security sector (miitary, poice), oca (miitary) eaders and armed groups, private sector/business (oca, nationa, trans-nationa), donor agencies and foreign embassies, mutiatera organisations, regiona organisations (eg African Union), reigious or poitica networks (oca, nationa, goba), independent mediators, civi society (oca, nationa, internationa), peace groups, trade unions, poitica parties, neighbouring states, traditiona authorities, diaspora groups, refugees / IDPs, a chidren, women and men iving in a given context. (Do not forget to incude your own organisation!) What are their main interests, goas, positions, capacities, and reationships? eg reigious vaues, poitica ideoogies, need for and, interest in poitica participation, economic resources, constituencies, access to information, poitica ties, goba networks. What institutiona capacities for peace can be identified? eg civi society, informa approaches to confict resoution, traditiona authorities, poitica institutions (eg head of state, pariament), judiciary, regiona (eg African Union, IGAD, ASEAN) and mutiatera bodies (eg Internationa Court of Justice). What actors can be identified as spoiers? Why? eg groups benefiting from war economy (combatants, arms/drug deaers, etc), smuggers, non confict sensitive organisations (see Chapter 1). Note: This ist is not exhaustive and the exampes may differ according to the context.

5 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter Dynamics Confict dynamics can be described as the resuting interaction between the confict profie, the actors, and causes. Understanding confict dynamics wi hep identify windows of opportunity, in particuar through the use of scenario buiding, which aims to assess different possibe deveopments and think through appropriate responses. Scenarios basicay provide an assessment of what may happen next in a given context according to a specific timeframe, buiding on the anaysis of confict profie, causes and actors. It is good practice to prepare three scenarios: (a) best case scenario (ie describing the optima outcome of the current context; (b) midde case or status quo scenario (ie describing the continued evoution of current trends); and (c) worst case scenario (ie describing the worst possibe outcome). If history is the key to understanding confict dynamics, it may be reevant to use the timeine to identify its main phases. Try to expain key events and assess their consequences. Tempora patterns (eg the four-year rotation of presidents or cimatic changes) may be important in understanding the confict dynamics. Undertaking this exercise with different actors and groups can bring out contrasting perspectives. BOX 5 Key questions for an anaysis of confict Dynamics What are current confict trends? eg escaation or de-escaation, changes in important framework conditions. What are windows of opportunity? eg are there positive deveopments? What factors support them? How can they be strengthened? What scenarios can be deveoped from the anaysis of the confict profie, causes and actors? eg best case, midde case and worst case scenarios. Note: This ist is not exhaustive and the exampes may differ according to the context. 2.5 Summary BOX 6 Key questions for confict anaysis Profie What is the poitica, economic, and socio-cutura context? What are emergent poitica, economic and socia issues? What confict prone/affected areas can be situated within the context? Is there a history of confict? Causes What are the structura causes of confict? What issues can be considered as proximate causes of confict? What triggers coud contribute to the outbreak/ further escaation of confict? What new factors contribute to proonging confict dynamics? What factors can contribute to peace? Actors Who are the main actors? What are their interests, goas, positions, capacities and reationships? What capacities for peace can be identified? What actors can be identified as spoiers? Why? Are they inadvertent or intentiona spoiers? Dynamics What are current confict trends? What are windows of opportunity? What scenarios can be deveoped from the anaysis of the confict profie, causes and actors? 3. Working with indicators In addition to traditiona (eg project, sectora) indicators, confict sensitive approaches require confict sensitive indicators to monitor and measure: (a) the context and its changes over time; and (b) the interaction between the context and the intervention. They have three eements:

6 6 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 Confict indicators Used to monitor the progression of confict factors against an appropriate baseine, and to provide targets against which to set contingency panning (see beow). Project indicators Monitor the efficiency, effectiveness, impact and sustainabiity of the project (see Chapter 3 Modue 1, step 3). Interaction indicators Measure the interaction between the context and the project (see Chapter 3 Modue 1, step 2c). Confict indicators Confict anaysis provides just a snap-shot of a highy fuid situation. It is therefore important to combine an in-depth anaysis with more dynamic and continuous forms of monitoring to provide up-to-date information from which to measure the interaction between the context and the intervention. Indicators are usefu in this respect, as they hep reduce a compex reaity to a few concrete dimensions and represent vauabe pointers to monitor change. The confict anaysis wi have ooked at the reationship between specific actors, causes and profie, in order to gain an understanding of the confict dynamics. Indicators can then be deveoped in order to refect these reationships and how they evove over time. It is important to have a mix of perception-based and objective indicators, each of which shoud refect quaitative and quantitative eements. Good indicators refect a variety of perspectives on the context. It is good practice to invove communities and other actors in identifying the indicators; not ony shoud this produce better indicators but it is aso an important opportunity to buid a common understanding of the context, to ascertain joint priorities and to agree on benchmarks of progress. Since each confict is unique, there is no standard ist of indicators appicabe to a contexts. The foowing tabe provides some exampes of sampe perception-based and objective indicators for the four key eements. TABLE 1 Sampe of confict anaysis indicators Key eement Exampe Sampe Indicators (a)objective and (b) perception-based Profie Geographic mobiisation around natura resources (a) What is the price of timber? How has it evoved over time? (b) (In the view of the respondent) How has confict intensity changed around this particuar area? Causes Human rights abuses (a) Has the number of poitica prisoners risen or faen? (b) To what extent can you/others openy criticise the government? Actors Diaspora (a) Have overseas remittances increased or decreased? (b) To what extent does the diaspora support or undermine the peace process? Dynamics Increased commitment to resove confict (a) Has the frequency of negotiations increased or decreased among confict parties? (b) Do you beieve that party X is committed to the peace process? Note: the exampes in Tabe 1 reate to each specific key eement ony (eg sampe indicators for profie have no reation to the exampe or sampe indicators for causes).

7 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter Integrating confict anaysis and other forms of assessment At a eves, humanitarian, deveopment and peacebuiding organisations use some form of pre-intervention assessment of the context in which they operate in order to identify entry points and pan their work. This is usuay caed a needs assessment. Needs assessment frameworks, such as sustainabe iveihoods assessments, participatory poverty assessments, participatory rura appraisas, good governance assessments and gender anayses can usefuy be compemented by confict anayses, and vice versa as expained beow: assumptions about context: iveihood, poverty and governance frameworks assume static situations and therefore provide itte guidance on how to dea with changing and fuid contexts. Confict anaysis thus heps to better understand these environments focus: iveihood and poverty assessments take the individua househod as a starting point, seeking to estabish the economic, poitica, socia and cutura factors affecting the ives and iveihoods of its members. This perspective is a vauabe addition to the top-down view of confict anaysis. In practice, however, these approaches often describe rather than expain poverty and tend to negect issues of poitics and power. There is itte scope, for exampe, for exporing competition and expoitation. There aso tends to be a ack of attention to the impications of weak poitica systems, bad governance and instabiity for househods iveihood strategies. Governance assessment frameworks dea with these issues, too, but usuay under the assumption of peacefu poitica competition and wiingness to reform. These assumptions might be questioned by a confict anaysis (see section 2.5) externa / interna view: poverty and other participatory forms of assessment hep understand peope s individua perspectives and experience. These are often missing from confict anaysis, which tends to pace more emphasis on the interests and strategies of organised poitica actors. Not infrequenty, confict anayses are conducted from an outside perspective. It is important to recognise the distinct frameworks underying confict anaysis and other forms of needs assessment. In practice, however, there is a growing effort and acknowedged need to carry out an integrated research and anaytica process that takes account of both perspectives. The foowing tabe provides some preiminary entry points for integrating confict anaysis into needs assessments. TABLE 2 Entry points for integrating confict anaysis into needs assessment Beyond describing poverty, focus on its potentia causes, examine the impact of power and poweressness on poverty and estabish the sources of power in the particuar community. Refine the understanding of group membership and group identity and how they affect vunerabiity (eg persecution, expoitation). Examine how the wider confict dynamics impact on institutions and reations within the community, understand processes of dominance, aignment and excusion. Link oca processes (eg dispacement) to poitica and economic interests and strategies at regiona and nationa eves (eg and appropriation, war economy). 5. Good practice in confict anaysis The foowing section addresses key concerns in reation to undertaking confict anaysis, as the confict-anaysis process itsef needs to be confict sensitive. This section offers exampes of good practice based on consutations in Kenya, Uganda and Sri Lanka. Buiding capacity for confict anaysis Conducting confict anaysis requires human and financia resources, which organisations may find hard to afford, especiay if confict sensitivity has not yet become a mainstreamed poicy within the organisation (see Chapter 5). As a resut, this may require systematicay and sustainaby buiding the need for confict anaysis into funding appications (for civi society organisations), budgets, panning guideines, and human and organisationa deveopment pans. According to the eve of awareness and capacity in your organisation, capacity buiding for confict anaysis may invove: heping staff to better understand the context in which they work. For exampe, in post-confict contexts, staff

8 8 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 of internationa organisations often do not recognise the inks between their work and possibe vioence. Loca government or civi society staff, on the other hand, may be too invoved at the micro eve to see the arger picture making sure organisations give confict anayses and their integration equa priority to other forms of assessment (governance, poverty, needs assessments, etc) (see Section 4) wherever possibe, integrating confict anayses into estabished procedures (eg strategic pans, needs assessments, etc), as we as into the contributions of service providers (eg terms of reference for short-term advisors, cas for proposas / tenders, etc). When preparing such processes, it is fundamenta to make sufficient time to accommodate confict anayses budgeting for confict anaysis in funding appications and operationa budgets. Donors (and the tax payers to whom donors are accountabe) may need to be sensitised to the importance of confict anaysis. NGOs often find that donors either (a) assume or even require that confict anaysis be conducted at the project proposa stage, without being aware of its costs for smaer organisations; or (b) do not prioritise confict anaysis at a supporting staff in acquiring confict anaysis skis on an ongoing basis, for exampe through staff deveopment pans deveoping an externa network of nationa and internationa experts on which to draw for specific tasks. Who conducts the anaysis? Confict anaysis can be undertaken for various purposes. The purpose wi determine the specific process and wi hep to determine who shoud conduct the anaysis. For exampe, if the purpose is to promote a participatory and transformative process within a community, the community shoud pay a vita roe in the panning, impementation (eg data coection) and assessment of the anaysis. If the purpose is to deveop a strategy for engagement in a given context, it may be that an interna team from within the organisation deveoping the strategy shoud ead the process. Some eements of the anaysis may be highy sensitive, and thus may need to be confidentia. Loca project staff typicay conduct participatory confict anaysis exercises with communities to decide on further project activities. Confict anaysis, in the context of project monitoring by internationa NGOs, is frequenty carried out by nationa and internationa staff, sometimes with the support of an externa adviser. Donors tend to commission externa experts or speciaised institutes in their own countries for countrywide confict anaysis studies, whie governments may have dedicated departments to dea with specific confict issues. In any case, it is important to get the right mix of skis and backgrounds, which can be summarised as foows: good confict anaysis skis good knowedge of the context and reated history sensitivity to the oca context oca anguage skis sectora / technica expertise as required sufficient status / credibiity to see through recommendations good knowedge of the organisations invoved representation of different perspectives within the context under consideration moderation skis, team work, possiby counseing faciitation skis. The quaity and reevance of the anaysis mainy depends on the peope invoved. These incude the person or team conducting the anaysis, on the one hand, and other confict actors, on the other. Confict anaysis consists of eiciting the views of the different groups and pacing them into a arger anaytica framework. The quaity of the anaysis wi depend on how faithfuy it refects the views received views may be distorted or given too much or too itte weight during the fitering process, either inadvertenty or deiberatey. It wi aso be infuenced by how the team is perceived by various actors within the context. For exampe, if the team is trusted by a actors, they are ikey to get more and better information than if they are perceived to be too cose to certain parties. Every confict anaysis is highy poitica, and bias is a constant concern. It may be difficut to be objective, as persona sympathies deveop and make it difficut to maintain an unbiased approach. Even a fy-in expert wi be infuenced by his / her vaues, previous knowedge of the country, the perspectives of his or her empoyer, and the peope s / he is working with. It may therefore be more productive to spe out one s own position and preconceptions and be cear about the conditions and restrictions under which the confict anaysis takes pace. The coective basis of the confict anaysis team may aso ensure higher eves of objectivity and impartiaity. Seecting the appropriate framework for confict anaysis When panning to use a specific framework to support confict anaysis, it is worth considering its strengths and weaknesses. In genera, organisations may find that toos do not necessariy offer new information, particuary if they have aready deveoped strong inkages to institutions and communities in the area under consideration. Their main vaue ies in guiding the systematic search for this information and providing a framework for anaysing it, thus prompting critica questions and offering new perspectives. Toos can aso enhance interna

9 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 9 communication about confict within an organisation, eg between provinces and the capita, or between fied offices and headquarters. Simiary, confict anaysis toos can guide consutation with a range of communities and other stakehoders. Finay, internationa actors appreciate that standardised toos ensure a certain degree of comparabiity between different confict anayses. On the other hand, confict anaysis toos shoud not be mistaken for a substitute for detaied oca knowedge and human judgement nor stife creative thinking. Toos that offer pre-defined ists of structura causes or indicators may be too genera to adequatey capture a specific confict. Toos may aso be too comprehensive for an organisation with imited research capacities, or not focussed enough to answer specific questions. For these reasons, organisations wi tend to customise existing toos to their own specific needs, objectives and capacities. BOX 7 Adapting toos for Northern Uganda In Uganda, a consortium of INGOs and government representatives consensuay deveoped a hybrid confict anaysis too that best met their needs and at the same time hed maximum reevance in the Northern Uganda context. The hybrid too deveoped by the consortium uses the profie-actors-context framework outined in Figure 2 above, with components of toos deveoped by Word Vision, ACORD and Oxfam in Uganda, the Loca Capacities for Peace Project (Do No Harm), and various other toos. The consortium then used the too they had deveoped to conduct a shared confict anaysis and to coectivey buid the capacity of their fied staff to conduct and update simiar anayses in the future. (The capacity buiding and fied research work is sti ongoing at the time of writing). There are some further issues around toos that organisations shoud consider: visua aids (eg graphs) and indicator ratings used in some toos suggest a degree of precision and objectivity that usuay does not stand up to reaity. Participants in a confict anaysis shoud therefore be encouraged to refect on the subjectivity of their assessments toos reying on some technica support (eg software) may appear intimidating to some participants. Simiary, extensive ists of indicators tend to make the anaysis unmanageabe in genera, aim to create a safe space for extensive discussions. Coecting information for confict anaysis It is important to gather information from as wide a range of sources as possibe and to isten to many different actors, in order to broaden the understanding of the context and to incude a wide range of perspectives (see Box 3). BOX 8 FORED Sri Lanka FORED undertakes surveys with women in target communities (women are FORED s main beneficiaries) to understand the socio-economic situation of the community. To gain the trust and confidence of the women, fied staff visit the famiies and spend time with the women in the kitchen, heping them with their tasks. Information gathered in the questionnaire is thus compemented through indirect cross-referencing from these informa chats. Information is further trianguated (see Box 9) with knowedgeabe community eaders. Various techniques can be used to gather these perspectives, from surveys and interviews to group discussion and stakehoder consutations (see Box 4). In contexts where groups cannot openy and directy discuss confict, it may be usefu to consider having separate meetings. Meetings and interviews must be conducted in a anguage in which participants can confidenty express their views. BOX 9 Stakehoder consutations Internationa and government agencies now routiney use stakehoder meetings to coect information in preparation for certain poicy decisions. They typicay hod one or a series of workshops in the capita and arge district towns, to which representatives of different interest groups (eg oca government, private sector, civi society, etc) are invited, to discuss specific issues. Athough an improvement on former practices, this form of stakehoder consutation presents a number of difficuties: one-way communication: where participation is misunderstood to mean heping to impement poitica decisions rather than heping to shape them, meetings wi be used to announce work pans and expected commitments, rather than to get feedback ack of capacity: grassroots representatives often do not fuy grasp the context of the meeting or have difficuties in discussing certain issues power: peope bring their power reations with them into the meeting room, and it is unreaistic to expect ow-ranking peope to speak up against their superiors/patrons in pubic. For the same reason, it is difficut to discuss confict issues process fatigue: participants who have repeatedy undergone consutations tend to voice soutions, before going through the step-by-step process that eads to the identification of core issues marginaisation: women and other marginaised groups usuay ack equa representation. Participants typicay over-represent we-educated, reativey weathy urban eites. Care therefore needs to be taken to incude representation from both urban and rura communities as we as poor communities (whether urban or rura).

10 10 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 The information gathered wi not a be reiabe. Gatekeepers such as oca eaders and interpreters may try to infuence information. Ordinary peope wi rarey dare to speak up against them in pubic or even in private. Information is aso argey determined by access. Aid agencies report restrictions of access by the nationa government, their own governments, or oca strongmen, which imit the type of information they are abe to gather. In certain contexts, when information is a scarce commodity, it tends to become highy poitica. There nonetheess exist some research methods, such as trianguation, which aim to reduce some of these imitations (see Box 10). BOX 10 Trianguation Given the difficuties of obtaining reiabe information for undertaking confict anaysis, it is often usefu to use a mix of data gathering methods ( trianguation ) for exampe a desk study, quantitative surveys, expert interviews, stakehoder consutations, and feedback workshops to present and discuss concusions. The aim of trianguation is to verify each piece of information with at east two corroborative or compementary sources, to obtain data that eventuay matches up and carifies differing perspectives. (For more information about trianguation, see Chapter 3, Modue 1, section 3.2). Conducting the anaysis Confict anaysis requires a great dea of care and sensitivity due to the highy poitica nature of the information gathered. A participatory process can become transformative by heping participants to define their own confict an important step towards addressing it. Because confict anaysis touches on sensitive issues such as power, ownership, and neutraity, however, it can aso provoke confict by bringing sensitive issues to the fore. For this reason, the confict anaysis itsef needs to be carried out in a confict sensitive manner. It is thus good practice to get stakehoders on board eary on and avoid antagonising potentia spoiers (see section 2.3). In particuar, when undertaking the confict anaysis, it is important to show respect for peope s ownership and feeings, to incude a wide range of actors and perspectives, to be transparent about the goas of the process and to ink the anaysis to demonstrabe action. In many contexts, it is fundamenta to ensure that staff, partners and communities are not at risk through the anaysis process, for exampe as a resut of insensitive questions being asked in pubic or researchers being sent to insecure areas. In such situations, the commitment to transparency may need to be restricted by the need to ensure security for some sensitive eements of the anaysis. The confict anaysis process can aso hep foster partnership and co-ordination, whie promoting a shared understanding of the context. The joint donor government / civi society confict assessment in Nigeria (see Box 11) may prove a vauabe experience from which to earn. BOX 11 Strategic Confict Assessment in Nigeria: An incusive and muti-stakehoder approach1 In Nigeria, a radicay different approach has been taken to conducting a confict assessment at the strategic eve. First, the assessment has been country owned with the Institute for Peace and Confict Resoution (IPCR) taking the ead. The IPCR is inked directy to the Nigerian Presidency and was estabished by the Nigerian government in Second, the assessment has been supported by a muti-donor group consisting of four main donors DFID, the Word Bank, USAID and UNDP. Third, civi society actors have been invoved in the process strategicay from the outset. Background and objectives The incusive and joint approach to undertaking the Strategic Confict Assessment (SCA) was adopted by both the Nigerian government and the supporting donors, in recognition of a number of issues which needed addressing. These were: a ack of coherent anaysis of the causes and dynamics of confict in Nigeria a ack of coordination in the anaysis and responses to confict by the government, civi society and donors (with civi society focusing mainy on oca / micro confict issues and responses, whist at a more macro eve the government found it difficut to understand the inkages between the different conficts affecting the country) a recognition by donors that if any donor undertook such an assessment uniateray, or even coectivey, without the consent of the Nigerian government, it coud resut in considerabe obstaces and high poitica risks, due to the sensitive nature of confict in Nigeria. A joint approach woud reap considerabe benefits in reducing those risks. The overa objective of the SCA was to provide an anaysis of confict in Nigeria which ooked at a areas of nationa ife and woud feed into the strategic, or poicy, eve in order to inform nationa and internationa debates about possibe responses and provide specific recommendations to government, the internationa community, the private sector and civi society. The study aso aimed to deveop and inform the IPCR s own work and capacity. Process and methodoogy The process was initiated in May 2002 with an incusive workshop of stakehoders incuding the donors, government and a broad range of civi society groups. The objectives of the workshop were to buid knowedge of reevant activities being undertaken by different groups (who is doing what and where); to provide a basis for buiding awareness of the confict assessment process, providing space for feedback from different stakehoders; and to strengthen the interaction and reationship between the different actors.

11 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 11 The methodoogy used in the SCA was based on the DFID Confict Assessment Guidance (see Annex 1) but adapted through modifications by the IPCR and fied teams (researchers). The SCA was undertaken by teams of IPCR and consutants in two phases: Phase one invoved desk-based research mapping the causes, actors and dynamics of confict, based on written sources. Phase two tested the findings of phase one through fiedwork carried out by research teams in a the Nigerian states which endeavoured to invove different stakehoders and interest groups. Phase two aso focused on considering responses and poicy options. A team eader coaborated in the writing of a summary report for each phase. The phase two report was aso scrutinised in a technica workshop in October 2002 invoving a technica pane comprised of experts from the different stakehoder groups (government, donors and civi society). Outcome and next steps In terms of future responses, the phase two report provides a detaied agenda for change on the poitica stage. Recommendations are directed at the different actors, incuding the federa government, state governments, oca governments, civi society, the internationa community and the IPCR itsef. They are divided into recommendations that need immediate, medium term and ong-term action (those on which work can start now but where resuts are not expected for 8-10 years). In particuar, the report recommends immediate attention to eary warning and confict prevention in recognition of the ack of Nigerian eary warning systems and the absence of systematic provision for preventative responses. The report identifies an over reiance on and imited or even negative effect of miitary responses. In order to share the research findings a further stakehoder workshop was hed in March 2003 which considered the issue of what next and the roes of different stakehoders in taking the findings forward. The discussion was centred on a number of themes security sector reform and sma arms, eary warning and eary response, poitica confict, socia and economic causes, the roe of civi society and mainstreaming into donor and government action. Foowing from the phase 2 report and stakehoder workshop, a Nationa Action Pan (NAP) has been drafted which outines a concrete agenda for taking forward the recommendations in the report, incuding a strategy for mainstreaming confict sensitivity within government institutions. In terms of progress to date, the SCA process has produced a number of demonstrabe steps forward in terms of promoting confict sensitivity in the Nigerian context. These incude: steps by the Nigerian government to integrate the findings of the SCA into the PRSP process steps taken by donors to review their strategies and approaches on the basis of the anaysis an increased sense of awareness and empowerment by civi society of the roe they can pay in pushing the agenda forward. 6. Choosing the right framework for confict anaysis This section aims to provide guidance on seecting a confict anaysis too from Annex 1, which best corresponds to the needs and capacities of specific organisations. At this point, it is important to note that the toos incuded in the Resource Pack were seected according to the foowing criteria: sufficient documentation avaiabe to describe the toos adequatey each too was used by at east one organisation the toos cover both micro and macro-eve confict anaysis the toos represent a wide range of approaches to confict anaysis (especiay in terms of targeted audiences and fieds of interventions). Athough the project team has gone to some engths to document the practice and experience of smaer, particuary Southern, organisations (especiay in Kenya, Uganda and Sri Lanka), a brief gance at the ist of toos reveas that most have been deveoped by Northern NGOs and donor agencies. Their perspective on confict is therefore argey externa, thus refecting the current state of pay in the area of forma confict anaysis. In the context of North / South reations, it may therefore be important to enhance cross-fertiisation and shared earning on confict anaysis and the deveopment of confict anaysis toos. The checkist poses a number of questions that can hep organisations think about the type of confict anaysis too they need. It is not comprehensive and wi need to be further adapted to each organisation.

12 12 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 Checkist for seecting a confict anaysis too 1. Purpose Does the too provide the information you need for your work? Is the proposed process of confict anaysis consistent with your aims? 2. Assumptions Do you share the too s specific understanding of confict? Does this perspective correspond to the mandate and vaues of your organisation? 3. Methodoogy Does the proposed methodoogy match the purpose of the anaysis? Does the proposed methodoogy agree with the ways of working of your organisation? How ong does it take to gain resuts? 4. Resource impications What are the resource impications of the seected too (staff time, trave, seminar costs, faciities, data management)? Is your organisation abe to aocate the required resources? 5. Avaiabiity Is the too avaiabe at the time and cost that suit you? Can fu documentation be accessed? TABLE 3 Summary of confict anaysis toos isted in Annex 1 Purpose Leve Potentia users Assumptions Methodoogy Resources 1. Strategic Confict Assessment (SCA) - DFID - DEV* Country/regiona strategic panning, can aso be appied to projects/ programmes Regiona, nationa, oca DFID and partner biatera / mutiatera agencies desk officers Combine poitica and economic dimensions; greed/grievance; structures and actors Combination of desk study and fied consutations Assessment team (5 peope). Consutation meetings in-country 2. Benefits / harms handbook - CARE - DEV/HA Anaysis, impact assessment and project (re)design Loca mainy project eve NGO project managers, fied staff Focus on rights-based approach Desk-based and fied research and possibe workshop consutations Varies few hours in emergencies to more detaied workshops / consutations 3. Confict Anaysis Framework (CAF) - Word Bank - DEV Country strategic panning Nationa, can aso be adapted to (sub) regiona Mutiatera organisation desk staff / panners Focus on socio-economic dimensions of confict Checkist; Desk studies, workshops, stakehoder consutations, consutants Fu CAF anaysis resource intensive (workshops, consutations, consutants); but can be simpified 4. Confict anaysis and response definition - FEWER - PB Eary warning, country strategic panning Nationa, oca Dipomats, donor desk officers, NGOs Focus on confict dynamics Ongoing anaysis by oca civi society organisations Modest for desk study; more for training or workshops

13 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 13 Purpose Leve Potentia users Assumptions Methodoogy Resources 5. EC Checkist for root causes of confict - European Commission - DEV Eary warning, strategic and programme panning Nationa, regiona Muti- and biatera donor desk officers, dipomatic actors Focus on structura root causes of confict Checkist; externa research capacity Limited as mainy desk-based 6. Working with confict: skis and strategies for action - Responding to confict - PB Confict anaysis, programme panning Loca, nationa Loca and INGO staff, fied and headquarters Focus on understanding conficts Coection of toos for participatory confict anaysis Limited depending on format (workshop, consutation meetings etc) 7. Making Sense of Turbuent Contexts (MSTC): Anaysis toos for humanitarian actors - Word Vision - DEV / HA Confict anaysis, project panning Nationa, regiona NGO emergency response, deveopment and advocacy staff Focus on chronic poitica instabiity, dovetais with Do No Harm Coection of toos, fexibe appication Variabe, depending on use of toos, desk study or consutations 8. Do No Harm / Loca capacities for peace project Confict anaysis, project monitoring and impact assessment Loca Donor, NGO (internationa and oca) staff Focus on dividers and connectors in confict Workshop, integration into standard procedures Limited, for workshop 9. Confict and Poicy Assessment Framework (CPAF) - Cingendae Institute - DEV / F Confict anaysis, country strategic panning Nationa, sectora Donor and embassy staff Focus on indicators of interna confict and state faiure Externa research capacity, workshops Costs of preparing for and hoding workshops, can incude externa consutant invovement 10. Eary Warning and Preventive Measures - UN Staff Coege - ALL Eary warning, confict anaysis, design Nationa UN staff (HQ and fied), other donor agencies or NGOs Focus on human security and human rights framework Training/workshop setting Training materias, faciitation, workshop / training costs 11. Confict assessment framework - USAID - DEV Confict anaysis, country and project panning Nationa Donor desk officers, impementing partners, other US government officias Broad scope, synthesis of other toos Desk study, workshop, foow up integration into programming strategy For desk study, in country visit and foow-up work. 12. Confict anaysis for project panning and impementation - GTZ - DEV Confict anaysis, country and project panning Nationa, project Donor, NGO desk officers, project managers Broad scope, synthesis of other toos Combination of desk study and empirica research, toos for participatory confict anaysis Costs of organising workshops and consutation meetings

14 14 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 Purpose Leve Potentia users Assumptions Methodoogy Resources 13. FAST methodoogy - Swiss Peace - DEV / FP Eary warning, risk assessments Nationa, can be sub-regiona Government ministries, deveopment agencies, NGOs, internationa organisations Event data anaysis (quantitative and quaitative) Fied information coection, desk-based anaysis Resource intensive for maintaining oca information networks and speciaist anaysis network 14. Confict diagnostic handbook - CPR / CIDA - PB / DEV Confict and stakehoder assessment Country, regiona Deveopment practitioners Devising evidence-based peacebuiding strategies Mainy workshop setting anaysis Costs of organising and presenting workshop 15. Better Programming Initiative - IFRC - HA Confict assessment, training Programme; oca, nationa, regiona Red Cross/Red Crescent Nationa Societies, deegation and other staff Focus on aid fostering ong-term reconciiation and recovery Anaysis and training Depending on scope of assessment or ength of training *Fied of activity DEV Deveopment HA Humanitarian Assistance PB Peacebuiding FP Foreign Poicy 7. Endnotes 1 Programme team research. See aso, Federa Government of Nigeria, Strategic Confict Assessment Nigeria: Consoidated report, Institute for Peace and Confict Resoution, October 2002.

15 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 15 Annex 1: Toos for confict anaysis are reshaped in protracted conficts. Main steps and suggested process The methodoogy is based on the foowing three anaytica steps: 1. Strategic Confict Assessment Version / Date of issue January 2002 Name of organisation DFID Author(s) Jonathan Goodhand, Tony Vaux, Robert Waker Primary purpose Confict anaysis and panning too (mainy to prepare country/regiona strategies, aso appicabe to individua projects and programmes). Suggested purposes are to assess: risks of negative effects of confict on programmes risks of programmes or poicies exacerbating confict opportunities to improve the effectiveness of deveopment interventions in contributing to confict prevention and reduction. Intended users Principay aimed at staff at DFID and partner biatera and mutiatera agencies. The methodoogy can be used as the basis for regiona, nationa and oca eve anaysis in order to map responses and their impacts to date, and to deveop strategies and options for more confict sensitive poicies and programmes. Leves of appication Regiona / country eve and oca eve. Conceptua assumptions The Strategic Confict Assessment (SCA) methodoogy is intended as a fexibe framework that can be adapted as needed, rather than a standardised approach. The conceptua basis for the SCA is the combined use of the foowing anaytica enses : the poitica economy approach that focuses on the poitica and socia interests of those engaged in confict, drawing attention to those who may benefit from the continuation of the confict anaysis of the causes of confict in terms of greed (opportunities for accumuation or benefit from confict) and grievance (negative reactions of those who are disadvantaged) combined anaysis of structures and actors and how they interact with one another identification of the different ayers/dimensions of the confict (internationa, regiona, nationa and oca) recognition of the dynamic character of conficts, which may mean that root causes of vioent confict change and Within each step, the foowing areas are investigated: A. Confict anaysis 1. Structures Anaysis of ong-term factors underying confict: security, poitica, economic, socia 2. Actors Anaysis of confict actors: interests, reations, capacities, peace agendas, incentives 3. Dynamics Anaysis of ong-term trends of confict, triggers for increased vioence, capacities (institutions, processes) for managing confict, ikey future confict scenarios B. Anaysis of internationa responses 1. Internationa actors Map interests and poicies of internationa actors: miitary and security, dipomatic, trade, immigration, deveopment Assess eve of coherence Anayse impacts on confict dynamics. 2. Deveopment actors Map magnitude and focus of deveopment poicy/programmes Anayse deveopment actors approaches to confict: in, on or around? Assess capacities to work effectivey in and on confict Assess potentia to infuence confict and peace dynamics. 3. Interactions between deveopment interventions and confict Assess impact of confict on deveopment poicy and programmes Assess impact of deveopment interventions on dynamics of confict and peace. C. Deveoping strategies and options Identify possibe strategies in terms of: 1. deveoping common donor approaches to better respond to confict 2. deveoping confict sensitive individua donor approaches 3. adjusting current activities working in or on confict, deveoping new initiatives.

16 16 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 The foowing process (for a donor country assessment) is suggested: Desk study Review of reevant documents from a variety of sources Interviews with key stakehoders in the donor country. Fied work Interna consutation with donor staff (deveopment agency, embassy) Stakehoder consutation (possiby series of workshops with range of stakehoders within and outside the capita) Debriefing workshop with donor staff and sma expert group to feed back and discuss resuts. Drafting confict assessment document Guiding questions / indicators The too provides usefu exampes of sources of confict and tension, confict actors, confict triggers, confict scenarios, donor poicy instruments and possibe confict prevention strategies. The exampes refer to specific countries; no genera ists are provided. Required resources Suggested composition of a country-eve confict assessment team: team eader (18 working days) internationa consutant (25 working days, incudes preparation of fina report) two in-country project consutants (10 working days each) confict adviser (10 working days) socia deveopment adviser (10 working days). However, this wi depend on the context in which the confict assessment framework wi be appied, the end users of the anaysis, and their objectives. Current appications DFID has appied the confict assessment methodoogy to a range of country studies, incuding Nepa, Kyrgyzstan, Modova, Sri Lanka and the Caucasus. There has aso been a muti-donor assessment in Nigeria, which incuded DFID, on the basis of the SCA framework. Lessons earnt The foowing methodoogica and practica essons have been earned from appying the Strategic Confict Assessments (SCAs): SCAs have improved the quaity of anaysis across UK government departments and encouraged a more joined-up approach. They have provided a framework within which to assess new proposas and have been usefu in designing coherent, strategic interventions. there is a need to determine the SCAs target audiences and purpose in the design phase. A imited audience enabes a more critica anaysis, whereas a wider audience necessitates more sensitivity and potentia watering down. If other reevant ministries are invoved and have a serious stake in the outcome of the process, a strongy worded anaysis coud imit efforts to engage in subte dipomatic pressure. there is a need to be cear about why and when to conduct SCAs; in particuar, they shoud be timed to coincide with a natura pause or turning point in the programme cyce, or before aunching a new programme. composition of the team is a crucia eement in its success; it is important to encompass expertise from a number of different areas in order to widen and deepen the quaity of the anaysis. It is aso good to have a combination of externa and oca consutants. there is a need to achieve the right baance between contextua anaysis and programme design. In this sense, it is important to have as wide an anaysis as possibe so that the compexity of the confict coud be propery understood before converting it into programme ideas. precise recommendations on what action to take next bring added vaue to SCAs. They aso hep overcome the feeing that the process coud be an extra burden, eg describing exacty what response needs to be taken, who shoud be responsibe for taking it, which NGO to work with, and how much funding woud be required. it is essentia to have active participation of in-country staff to inform the purpose and approach and a staff member dedicated to the foow-up and impementation of recommendations. SCAs shoud be conducted in a timeframe of about six weeks up to two months, depending on the depth and scope of the study. A minimum of two weeks for fied research and two weeks for the writing-up process is recommended. Reports shoud be pubished immediatey after the assessment to guarantee timey reevance. the practica appication of the SCA depends on the confict expertise of the users and whether or not they ask the right questions. Less experienced staff may require induction, training and support. (A different approach was foowed in the Strategic Confict Assessment in Nigeria in that an NGO ed the process and support came from 4 different donors (incuding DFID). The essons earned from that process are therefore different). Commentary on the too The too presents a very comprehensive form of confict anaysis, but with a methodoogica basis that is designed to be taiored to suit specific contexts and end users. Some parts of the anaysis outputs may become out of date quicky, and a higher eve strategic assessment may not be appropriate as the basis for designing micro-eve projects or sectora interventions without further specific contextua anaysis. It woud therefore be idea to compement the confict assessment methodoogy with a ighter too for more continuous monitoring of the programme and confict situation. The too can be used at any point in the programming cyce and at various points in the confict cyce in a country (ie pre-confict, post-confict etc). Avaiabe reports The Strategic Confict Assessment (Conducting Confict

17 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 17 Assessments: Guidance Notes) is avaiabe on the DFID website, under the Confict and Humanitarian Affairs Department ( Reports on confict assessments on Sri Lanka and Kyrgyzstan, as we as a synthesis report on Kyrgyzstan, Modova, Nepa and Sri Lanka are aso avaiabe on the above website. A essons earned report on the Strategic Confict Assessment in Nigeria (conducted by the Institute for Peace and Confict Resoution in the Nigerian Presidency, with support from DFID, the Word Bank, USAID and UNDP) is avaiabe by contacting the address beow. Contact detais Department for Internationa Deveopment Confict and Humanitarian Affairs Department 20 Victoria Street London SW1H 0NB Emai: chadenquiry@dfid.gov.uk Te: 0044 (0) Fax: 0044 (0) Benefits / harms handbook Version / Date of issue September 2001 Name of organisation CARE Author(s) Pau O Brien Primary purpose To hep humanitarian and deveopment workers take responsibiity for the impact of their work on peope s human rights. It offers a set of simpe interrogative toos that hep staff think more deepy and effectivey about the impacts of their work, and taking responsibiity for both positive and negative impacts. It aso provides a framework for monitoring potentia negative or unintended impacts, as we as ways to mitigate these. Intended users NGO project managers and other fied staff and consutants working in the areas of deveopment and humanitarian assistance. The methodoogy may aso be of interest to nationa government officias and possiby donors. Leves of appication Project eve, athough the concepts coud be appied at other eves as we. Conceptua assumptions 1. Human-rights approach CARE s human rights-based approach to reief and deveopment presupposes that a peope are entited to certain minimum conditions of iving with dignity (human rights). Reief and deveopment organisations aim to hep peope achieve these conditions, thereby acknowedging their human responsibiity to do so. This impies they take responsibiity for the human rights impact of their work whether positive or negative. Human rights are therefore the centra criteria for anaysing the overa impact of a project. 2. Anaytica framework The methodoogy is based on three categories of human rights and impacts: poitica rights and impacts (eg right to equaity and recognition before the aw, right to a fair tria, freedom of thought and expression, right to association and poitica participation) security rights and impacts (eg right to ife, iberty, security of person, movement, freedom from torture, forced dispacement, degrading treatment, sexua assaut, arbitrary arrest) economic, socia and cutura rights and impacts (eg iveihood security, nutrition, food security, water, heath, education, cean environment, sheter, participation in one s cuture).

18 18 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 Main steps and suggested process The benefits / harms handbook contains toos for situation anaysis (profie toos), impact assessment (impact toos), and project (re)design (decision toos). In particuar: profie toos hep users gain a more comprehensive understanding of the contexts in which they work impact toos hep users think about the unintended impacts of their work decision toos hep users work through difficut decisions when there is a rea danger of harming peope with an intervention. The handbook assumes that most of the information required to answer the toos questions is aready avaiabe from the organisation s fied staff. Further information can be gathered from individuas famiiar with the oca situation, who are invited for consutation. If the organisation has been working in the area for some time aready, it is recommended to hod a workshop inviting midde-eve and fied staff as we as oca experts. For assessing a new project, the questions in the toos may be put to the oca community in a sensitive way. it takes organisationa commitment to make them work. Avaiabe reports An eectronic copy of the handbook is avaiabe on request. Contact detais Pau O Brien Afghanistan Poicy Advisor, CARE Internationa E-mai: pobrien@care.org Dan Maxwe East Africa Regiona Programme Coordinator, CARE Internationa E-mai: maxwe@care.org Guiding questions / indicators The profie, impact and decision toos are organised according to the three categories of human rights, namey: poitica, security and economic, socia and cutura rights. In addition, the profie too aso focuses on rights, responsibiities and underying causes, in order to hep users think about the underying causes of any human rights probem. To this end, consideration is given to the actions, attitudes and artifices (eg systems and structures) that cause the rights probem. Required resources Depends on the required research. A few hours taking through the profie toos with oca staff are considered enough in emergency situations. Otherwise, workshops with fied staff, decision makers and possiby additiona experts are recommended. Current appications Projects in East Africa must conduct a benefits / harms anaysis before starting impementation. The intention is twofod: to conduct such an anaysis prior to impementation to ensure that the benefits / harms thinking aso pervades the project impementation, monitoring and evauation. Lessons earnt It is not possibe to design a totay harm-free project upfront, so that equa emphasis needs to be paced on the foow up, in the form of an ongoing benefits / harms anaysis during the project impementation, and the identification of ways to mitigate potentia negative impacts. Commentary on the too The benefits / harms toos themseves are fairy straightforward to use and capacity can be buit quicky. But

19 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter Confict Anaysis Framework Version / Date of issue October 2002 Name of organisation Word Bank Author(s) Per Wam, Shonai Sardesai Primary purpose Confict anaysis too Intended users Desk officers / panners in donor deveopment organisations (Word Bank staff). Leves of appication Country eve, in preparation of country strategies, poverty reduction strategies, poicies and individua programmes. It can aso be adapted for use at the (sub) regiona eve. Conceptua assumptions The contribution of deveopment organisations, such as the Word Bank, to confict prevention is regarded as threefod: making countries more resiient to the eruption and escaation of vioent confict by strengthening participatory and incusive socia processes and institutions that may hep manage conficts in non-vioent ways addressing factors reated to confict and determine their inks with poverty - sources (incuding roots) of conficts; opportunities for groups to engage in vioent activities and the consequences of confict determining the factors that can be addressed through Word Bank assisted strategies, and the modaities through which they can best be managed. Main steps and suggested process The Word Bank s methodoogy incudes two stages, namey: a screening process, aimed to test whether it is (or not) appropriate to undertake a fu confict anaysis in the country under consideration. The screening considers a set of nine indicators of potentia vioence a fu confict anaysis process, on the basis of the Confict Anaysis Framework (CAF). The foowing steps are recommended for conducting a CAF-based confict anaysis: reinterpretation of existing information on the confict situation of a country aong the ines of the CAF (brief desk study) workshops with country speciaists to cover each of the six CAF categories and anaysis of variabes aong a set of specific dimensions, that wi hep determine a country s overa position reative to confict foow-up studies, as needed, on issues identified in the workshop and monitoring of issues identified as confict-sensitive stakehoder anaysis to identify and examine groups who have the abiity to affect poitica and socia change, incuding vioence, and the main groups who are ikey to be affected by such changes country consutation with different stakehoder groups, as needed concuding workshops to discuss integration of the above issues into the poverty reduction strategy, country strategy or other country programmes. CAF can be conducted as a stand-aone anaysis or integrated into a more comprehensive macro-socia anaysis (for more information, see ). Guiding questions / indicators A. Risk screening indicators Athough none of these factors aone is necessary or sufficient to determine the outbreak, escaation or resumption of vioent confict, they have been found to be statisticay highy reated to confict. B. Confict Anaysis Framework Categories of variabes Socia and ethnic reations, eg socia ceavages, group identity-buiding, bridging socia capita Governance and poitica institutions, eg stabiity of poitica institutions, equity of aw Human rights and security, eg human rights status, miitarisation of society, roe of media Economic structure and performance, eg income disparities, income changes Environment and natura resources, eg avaiabiity of and access to natura resources Externa factors, eg regiona conficts, roe of diasporas. Desk officers are encouraged to use their knowedge of the country to identify those variabes which seem most reevant to the confict in question. These variabes are anaysed according to the foowing dimensions: History / changes: how the variabe has deveoped/changed over a reevant time span? Dynamics / trends: what is determining the future path of the variabe and how is it ikey to deveop? Pubic perceptions: pubic attitudes and biases regarding the variabe Poiticization: how the variabe is used poiticay by groups and organizations; Organisation: the extent to which the variabe has ed to the estabishment of interest organisations, and / or infuenced poitica parties and miitant organisations Link to confict and intensity: how the variabe contributes to confict and the current eve of intensity Link to poverty: how the variabe reates to poverty. Based on the anaysis of variabes, desk officers are aso

20 20 Confict-sensitive approaches to deveopment, humanitarian assistance and peace buiding: toos for peace and confict impact assessment Chapter 2 encouraged to examine inkages between variabes. Required resources Considerabe resources are required to conduct a fu CAF, incuding expert workshops, stakehoder consutations and the depoyment of consutants. Whie a fu CAF (desk and fied work) may require considerabe resources, this is not a necessity. It is possibe to conduct a CAF via a simper and ess expensive process, incuding two to three-day workshops, desk studies, etc. It is aso possibe to adapt CAF to the country context by identifying a few confict sensitive variabes and monitoring them on a reguar basis. Current appications CAF is being appied to Venezuea, Burundi (in co-operation with the Internationa Fund for Agricutura Deveopment (IFAD)), Rwanda and Somaia. Lessons earnt A essons earnt document on the above appications is being panned for the end of Commentary on the too N/A Avaiabe Reports The CAF methodoogy can be obtained at: cpr@wordbank.org. Contact detais Per Wam / Shonai Sardesai Confict Prevention and Reconstruction Unit Word Bank Emai: cpr@wordbank.org Website: 4. Confict anaysis and response definition Version / Date of issue Apri 2001 Name of organisation Forum on Eary Warning and Eary Response (FEWER), West Africa Network for Peacebuiding (WANEP), Centre for Confict Research (CCR) Author(s) FEWER (adapted by WANEP) Primary purpose Confict anaysis. It provides an anaytica and action framework, which wi hep pan preiminary responses to eary warning. Intended users Dipomatic and deveopment actors, mainy desk officers and poicy makers in foreign poicy and deveopment departments. Indigenous and internationa NGOs engaged in eary warning. Leves of appication Country eve, athough an adaptation of the methodoogy to ook at oca conficts has aso proven usefu. Conceptua assumptions The methodoogy is designed as a quick too, which can provide insight into overa trends. It is not meant as a substitute for more sustained confict anaysis, monitoring and consutations. The key assumption is: (a) Confict trends (b) peace trends +/- (c) stakehoder trends = overa trends. Main steps and suggested process Confict anaysis consists of four broad steps: 1. anaysis of confict indicators (root causes, proximate causes and confict triggers in the areas of poitics/security, economy and socio-cuture) 2. anaysis of peace indicators (systems, processes and toos sustaining peace in a given society, in the areas of poitics/security, economy and socio-cuture) 3. stakehoder anaysis (agenda/power, needs and actions of stakehoders in areas of poitics/security, economy and socio-cuture) In each of these three areas, the anayst is asked to estabish inkages and synergies between the indicators/stakehoders identified and buid three scenarios (best-case, status-quo, worst-case) 4. summary anaysis: using the above formuae, the predominant trends in the areas of confict and peace indicators as we as among stakehoders are brought together to determine overa confict trends. Again, three overa scenarios are formuated.