Científico e Tecnológico

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1 Chamada Pública de Projetos Programa Brasil-França de Cooperação Científica e Tecnológica Public Call for Projects Brazil-France Scientific and Technological Cooperation Program DETALHAMENTO DA PROPOSTA CONFORME A CHAMADA DE PROJETOS CNPq Nº 12/2011 Guidelines for Detailing Joint Proposal Title of the Joint Research Project: Climate change, variability and trends during the past, Present and future, and natural disasters in tropical and subtropical Regions of BrazIl: observations and MOdeling (PRIMO) Brazilian Research Coordinator: Name: José Antonio Marengo Orsini Institution: National Institute for Space Research Department: Center for Earth System Science Position: Senior Researcher 1A Address: Rodovia Dutra km. 39 Centro Cachoeira Paulista, SP - Brasil CEP Caixa Postal: 001 Telephone: (12) Fax: (12) CNPq Researcher 1A. José A. Marengo graduated in Physics and Meteorology-Universidad Nacional Agraria (1981), and obtained a MSc in "Engineering of Water and Earth Resources (Ingenieria de Recursos de Agua y Tierra) - Universidad Nacional Agraria (1987), Lima, Peru, and a PhD in Meteorology - University of Wisconsin - Madison (1991), USA. He completed a post-doc in climate modeling at NASA-GISS, Columbia University in New York City and at Florida State University, Florida, USA. He was the Scientific Coordinator of climate forecast of CPTEC/INPE. He is currently Senior Researcher at INPE and Coordinator of the Center for Earth System Science CCST/INPE. He is associated to the INPE Graduate College. He is also a member of various international panels, including the IPCC, and national and international scientific networks on climate change. He has published more than 400 scientific papers, book chapters, technical reports and conference proceedings. His main scientific field is Earth Sciences, with emphasis on Meteorology, working mainly on the following themes: the Amazon, climate, climate change and climate modeling. French Research Coordinator: Name: Abdelfettah Sifeddine Institution: Institute of Research for Development - IRD Department: Department of Resources and Environment DRE- LOCEAN Position: Research Director (DR1) 1

2 Address: IRD-UFF/ Departamento de Geoquímica UFF Niterói RJ - Brasil Telephone: +55 (21) Fax: +55 (21) Abdel Sifeddine obtained his PhD in Geology of the Quaternary at the National Museum of Natural History - Paris (France) in He also completed a post-doc in Paleoclimate of South America in 1997, at the University of Orléans (France). He is titular researcher at the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) since 1994, where he presently occupies the position of Research Director (DR1). He is also Associate Professor at the Federal Fluminense University Brazil, since In 2004, he spent 6 months as a Visiting Professor at the Department of Geology, University of Michigan. He is nowadays responsible for several projects of cooperation between IRD and different South American countries, such as the CLIMPAST project (IRD-CNPq, ). He is currently Director of the "PALEOTRACES" International Laboratory between France, Brazil and Chile (IRD-UFF-U.Antof.). He published nearly 80 scientific papers and participated in more than 200 international congresses. He also supervised 12 MScs and 10 PhDs. 1. Summary of the project The PRIMO project aims to significantly expand the knowledge related to climate change and natural disasters in Brazil, trying to understand the climatic variability and trends as well as their impacts on the hydrological cycles and on the continental and coastal ecosystems during the last millennia, and in the future. Using an dual approach involving climate reconstructions and model outputs, and working at different time scales characterized by different climatic situations (heat/cold, dry/humid), it will be possible to evaluate the modeling tools used to study future climate projections (i.e., IPCC AR5 simulations, INPE regional (Eta) and global (MBSCG) models). The project will address the following questions: How do the Atlantic and Pacific variabilities respond to global and regional forcing? Do climate variations observed on both sides of South America evolve in the same direction? What is the relationship between climate variability, extremes and trends, and natural disasters? What are the climatic mechanisms responsible for natural disasters in the past and in the future? Which Brazilian regions will be mostly affected by climatic extreme events? The PRIMO project, jointly proposed to CNPq and IRD, is formatted into three subgroups. The first subgroup will be dedicated to collecting a large amount of proxies (geochemical variables, isotopic and organic minerals, biomarkers, pollen, etc..) which will be used to reconstruct temperatures and/or precipitation of the study area. The validation of the paleoclimatic proxies calibration will be based on the comparison with instrumental data, principally during the last century. The second subgroup will be dedicated to the reconstruction, at global and meso-scale, of Brazilian regional climate conditions during the past and for the future. It will then be possible to assess the ability of the models (global and regional) used in the project to reproduce climate change from millennial to inter-annual time scale. Models reproducing local conditions will also be developed, 2

3 focusing on hydrology, vegetation and erosion in the future. The third subgroup aims to better knowledge of the relationships between climate (abrupt changes, tendencies) and natural disasters in three Brazilian regions recently affected by various types of climatic extreme events. In these regions, chosen for their differences on a bioclimatic base (temperature, precipitation, vegetation), the project also claims i. to reconstruct past climate and its variability at sub-decadal time resolution, ii. to evaluate the modeling response, as well as iii. the vulnerability of these ecosystems in relation to global climate changes. 2. Keywords Climate Change, Climate Variability, Trends, Past Climate, Future, Natural Disasters, Brazil, Observations, 3. Description of consortium The project "PRIMO" will be based on a significant scientific cooperation effort coordinated by Brazilian and French teams for better understanding of climate change and natural disasters. This project will count with the participation of a series of specialists working on reconstruction of past climate from lake and marine sediments archives, coral and speleothems both from Brazil and from South America. It will also count with specialists on climatology, hydrology, oceanography, physics and chemistry as well as global and regional past and future climate modeling. SubGroup 1: Past Climate: Observation and Validation A. Sifeddine/ F. Da Cruz Brazilian Participants Names Position institution State Role in the project Ana Luiza Spadanno Albuquerque Professor Dept. of Geochemistry / UFF Niterói/RJ Geochemistry Renato Campello Cordeiro Professor Dept. of Geochemistry / UFF Niterói/RJ Geochemistry Paleoclimatology Marcio Henrique da Costa Gurgel Professor School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities / USP São Paulo/SP Organic geochemistry Cristiano Mazur Cheissi Professor School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities / USP São Paulo/SP Inorganic geochemistry Francisco William da Cruz Professor Institut of Geosciences / USP São Paulo/SP Isotopic geochemistry Paleoclimatology Luiz Drude de Lacerda Professor LABOMAR-UFC Fortaleza/CE Geochemistry Paloeceanography Rozane Marins Professor LABOMAR-UFC Fortaleza/CE Geochemistry Paloeceanography Heitor Evangelista Professor LARAMG-UERJ Rio de Janeiro/RJ Geochemistry Michel Mahiques Professor Oceanographical Institut / São Paulo/SP Sedimentology USP Professor Oceanographical Institut / USP Micropaleontology Silvia Helena de Mello e São Paulo/SP Sousa French Participants Bruno Turcq Cv lattes Researcher LOCEAN Bondy Geochemistry Paleoclimatology Abdelfettah Researcher LOCEAN/UFF Niterói/RJ Geochemistry 3

4 Cv lattes Sifeddine Paleoclimatology Marie Pierre Ledru Researcher ISEM Montpellier Palynology Paleoclimatology Mohammed Boussafir Professor ISTO Orléans Geochemistry Paleoclimatology Thierry Correge Professor EPOC Bordeaux Geochemistry Francis Sondag Cv lattes Engineer GET/UnB Brasilia/DF Hydrology Josyane Ronchail Cv lattes Professor LOCEAN Paris Climatology Patricia Turcq Cv lattes Researcher GET Bondy Geochemistry paleoclimatology SubGroup 2: Past and Future Climate:. J. Marengo, P; Dias, L. Li, B. Turcq Brazilian Participants Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini Researcher CCST-INPE Cachoeira Global and Regional Climate Sin Chan Chou Researcher CCST-INPE Cachoeira Regional Climate Lincoln Alves Researcher CCST-INPE Cachoeira Regional Climate Wagner Soares Researcher CCST-INPE Cachoeira Regional Climate Paulo Nobre Researcher CCST-INPE Cachoeira Global Climate Gilvan Sampaio Researcher CCST-INPE Cachoeira Global Climate Ilana Wainer Professor Institute of de Oceanography-USP São Paulo/SP Oceanographic Pedro Leite da Silva Dias Professor Laboratório Nacional de Computação Cientifica Petrópolis/RJ Global and Regional Climate Luciene de Melo Professor Institute of Atmospheric Science s/ UFAL Maceió/AL Global Climate Alexandre Araujo da Costa Professor Dept. of Physics / UECE Fortaleza/CE Global and Regional French Participants Pascal Braconnot Researcher LSCE Paris Global Boris Dewitt Reseracher LEGOS Toulouse Oceanographic modeling Laurent Li Researcher LMD Paris Global Juliette Mignot Researcher LMD Paris Global SubGrupo 3: Case Studies Alexandre Costa and J. Ronchail Brazilian Participants Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini Researcher CCST-INPE Cachoeira Observation study: Amazônia,Northeast Helen da Costa Gurgel Especialized Technician SBF / MMA Brasília/DF Observation study: Amazônia,Northeast Alexandre Araujo da Costa Professor Dept. of Physics / UECE Fortaleza/CE Observation study: Amazônia,Northeast Noemia Bohn Observation study: Professor FURB Blumenau/SC South and Southeast Marcos Antônio Mattedi Dept. of Social Sciences / Observations study: Professor Blumenau/SC FURB South and Southeast Juarez José Aumond Dept. of Natural Sciences / Observation study: Professor Blumenau/SC FURB South and Southeast Francisco Dourado Professor Geology / UERJ Rio de Observation study: 4

5 Janeiro/RJ South and Southeast Dirceu Luís Severo Professor Dept. of Physics / FURB Blumenau/SC Observation study: Sul and Southeast Eduardo Martins Professor FUNCEME Fortaleza/CE Observation study: Northeast French Participants Josyane Ronchail Cv lattes Professor LOCEAN Paris Observation study: Amazônia Michel Grimaldi Researcher BIOEMCO Bondy Observation study: Northeast Luc Ortlieb Researcher LOCEAN Bondy Observation study: Northeast Jean Michel Martinez Cv lattes Researcher GET Brasilia Observation study Northeast Vincent Chaplot Researcher BIOEMCO Paris Observation study South and Southeast Bruno Turcq Cv lattes Researcher LOCEAN Bondy Observation study Nordeste Patricia Turcq Cv lattes Researcher GET Bondy Observation study Amazonia 4. General objectives and motivation The main goal of "PRIMO" project will be to significantly advance the understanding of climate change, climate variability and natural disasters on a regional time scale during the last millennium and in the future. The impacts of these changes depend on both climate change and average changes of climate variability. Both influence natural environment (e.g., the hydrological cycle, flood, drought, erosion and vegetation) and human activities. Within this project, we aim to acquire more data, from millennium to decadal time resolution from marine and lacustrine sedimentary records, and from decadal to interannual time resolution from speleothems and corals. We will extend the studied periods for modeling to recent Holocene, focusing on the last millennium. With the instrumental series, these results will help us reconstructing a more complete data base covering the last thousand years, which can help to better knowledge of the mechanisms responsible for various types of natural disasters in the past, present and future. Sedimentological, inorganic and organic geochemical and micropaleontological markers will be used. This project will include paleoclimatic proxies calibrations based on comparison with the instrumental climate data when it is possible. In addition, paleoclimate reconstructions will be compared with numeric climate modeling outputs for better future climate previsions. Using data/models approach will make possible to understand: (1). How do major climate mechanisms act on both sides of South America and how has their variability evolved at different timescales? (2) Is there a synchronism between durations and intensities of climate variability on each side of South America? (3) Which duration have such variations, and what are their influences on the South American monsoon regime and on other south-american convective systems during the different climatic periods of the last millennium? (4) Are there any extra-tropical teleconnections influencing South American meteorological systems? (5). What are the climatic and hydrological future previsions of such climatic variability including extreme events in Amazonian, Northeastern, South and 5

6 South-Eastern Brazilian regions, and how do they suffer comparison with reconstructions of the past? 5. Publications Aumond, J. J.; Sevegnani, L.. Descrição do desastre: os escorregamentos de encostas In: FRANK, B.; SEVEGNANI, L. (Orgs.) Desastre de 2008 no Vale do Itajaí: água, gente e política. Blumenau: Agência de Água do Vale do Itajaí,, p Bohn, N.; Frank, B. Gestão da bacia hidrográfica do rio Itajaí: o papel da FURB na integração da pesquisa científica e extensão In: Universidade e meio ambiente. Câmara Sul de Extensão das Universidades Comunitárias (Org.). Joinville: Editora da Univille, (no prelo). Chiessi, C.M., Mulitza, S., Pätzold, J., Wefer, G., Marengo, J.A., Possible impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the South American summer monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L Chou, S.C., J.A. Marengo, A. A. Lyra, G. Sueiro, J. F. Pesquero, L. M. Alves, G. Kay, R. Betts, D.J. Chagas, J. L. Gomes, J. F. Bustamante, (2011) Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs, Climate Dynamics, DOI /s Cruz F. W., Vuille, M., Burns, J.B., Hai Cheng, W., Werner, M., Edwards, R.L., Karmann, I., Auler, A., & Nguyen, H Orbitally driven east-west antiphasing of South American precipitation. Nature Geoscience 2, doi: /ngeo444 Jorgetti, T. ; Silva Dias, P. L. ; Braconnot, P.. El Niño influence over South Americ during the mid-holocene. Advances in Geosciences, v. 6, p , Keller, M., M.Bustamante, J. Gash and P. Silva Dias, Ed.,2009: Amazônia and Global Change. Gephysical Mnograph 186, America Geophysical Union, Washington DC, ISBN: , 565 pp. Marengo J.A., J. Tomasella, L M. Alves, W R. Soares, D. A. Rodriguez (2011) The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region, Geophysical Research Letters, (38), L12703, doi: /2011gl047436, 2011 Marengo, J, T. Ambrizzi, R. P. Rocha, L. M. Alves, S. V. Cuadra, M. C. Valverde, S. E. T. Ferraz, R. R. Torres, D. C. Santos, 2009: Future change of climate in South America in the late XXI Century: Intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models, Climate Dynamics, DOI /s Marengo, J. S. C. Chou, G. Kay, L. M. Alves, J. F. Pesquero, W. R. Soares, D. C. Santos, A. Lyra, G. Sueiro, R. Betts, D. J. Chagas, J. L. Gomes, J. F. Bustamante and P. Tavares (2011), Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: Climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River Basins, Climate Dynamics, DOI /s Silva Dias, P.L., B. Turcq, M.A.F.Silva Dias, P. Braconnot and T. Jorgetti, 2009: Mid- Holocene Climate of Tropical South America: A Model-Data Approach. Chapter 11, in Past Climate Variabilty in South America and Surrounding Regions, F. Vimeux 6

7 (Eds.), Development in Paleoenvironmental Research 14, DOI / _11, Springer Verlag. Souto, D., Lessa, D.V., Albuquerque, ALS., Sifeddine, A., Turcq, B., Barbosa, C. Marine sediments from southeastern Brazilian continental shelf: A 1200 Year record of upwelling Productivity. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology, 299, Zhang, Y., R. Fu, H. Yu, Y. Qian, R. Dickinson, M. A. F. Silva Dias, P. L. da Silva Dias, and K. Fernandes (2009), Impact of biomass burning aerosol on the monsoon circulation transition over Amazonia, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L10814, doi: /2009gl Research project, program, and methodology In Brazil, one of the main phenomena related to natural disasters is derived from the variability of intensity and distribution of rainfall. Unfortunately, climate change from satellites and human measurements (thermometers, rain gauges) generally cover less than 150 years. These are too short series to examine the whole range of natural climate variability. For this reason, it is critical to examine climate change going back hundreds and thousands of years using paleoclimatic records to evaluate results from climate simulations (Schmidt, 2010). Concerning the last 1,000 years, studies realized in the tropics and subtropics are showing a coherent distribution of precipitation at low latitudes during the little Ice Age (LIA). For the northern part of South America, concentration records of Cariaco basin titanium (Ti) (~ 10 N / 65 W) suggest an increase in aridity (Haug et al., 2001), whilst records southern from equator line indicate an opposite scenario: Lake Titicaca (~ 15 S / 69 W) records indicate a precipitation increase during the same period (Baker et al., 2001). These changes, recorded during the LIA, would be due to the southward ITCZ displacement that could be controlled by global mechanisms probably linked with a reduction of Northern Atlantic surface temperature as a response to the reduction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Timmermann et al., 2007). Long-term changes in Brazilian Northeastern rainfall may have been influenced by strong changes in zonal circulation at high tropospheric levels, associated with the South American Monsoon System (SAMS), as indicated by a Middle Holocene climate scenario based on results published by Cruz et al., (2009). Such patterns of regional variation of atmospheric circulation and rainfall distribution were well reproduced by numerical experiments based on general circulation models, containing simulations of variations in the isotopic composition of rain. Recent studies conducted in the Western Amazon (Reuter et al., 2009) showed that during the LIA, there was an increase of around 30% in rainfall compared to actual, due to an intensification of SAMS. These results show evidence that the scenario published by Cruz et al. (2009) seems to be similar to situations encountered during the LIA, which could provoke an intensification of monsoon and consequently positive anomalies of rainfall on the occidental part of Amazon region. Such patterns of regional atmospheric circulation and precipitation should lead, based on the current 7

8 scenario, various types of natural disasters (floods and droughts in the Amazon and in the Northeast). Based on recent work, it is known that the decadal of SST variations in the Pacific region also induce significant changes in rainfall distribution in various regions of Brazil (South, Southeast and Northeast) (Kayano et al., 2004). Marengo (2004) used rainfall interpolated data, which evidenced a negative trend in precipitation over the Amazon. The decadal and multi-decadal SST variations, characteristic of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), also influence rainfall regimes, and seem to be greatly correlated with the El Niño impact at interannual time scale (Kayano et al., 2009). Recently, Marengo et al., (2011) emphasized the role of tropical Atlantic variability in the Amazonian droughts occurred in 2005 and It seems that such droughts could be related to positive anomalies of SST on the southern part of North Tropical Atlantic. However, due to short instrumental series, it is difficult to examine the full range of climatic variability of precipitation in the context of such oscillations (PDO, NAO) and over other climatic modes, thus becoming a limiting factor for prediction of the climate in some areas of South America (Nobre et al., 2006). Until today, there is no study explaining and determining the causes of such changes in these regions; however, it can be assumed that: (1) changes in Pacific SST were probably modulated by low frequency variations of summer insolation and of North Atlantic SST during secular events, such as those that occurred during the ACM and the LIA (Trouet et al., 2009); (2) changes of Tropical Atlantic SST (South and North) also contributed in moisture variability in South America; (3) changes in behavior of SAMS are due to variations in climatic conditions of the teleconnection between Atlantic and Pacific oceans variabilities at different time scales, from centennial to decadal, factors not yet very well studied; (4) these changes on each side of South America and their teleconnection certainly have caused natural disasters (floods, droughts, fires, etc..) in Brazil, as it features a wide range of climate variability and (5) possible changes in land cover with impact on the intensity of the heat source associated with the SAMS, particularly in the Amazon and Central Brazil (Avissar et al., 2002, Noble et al. 2009; Betts a& Silva Dias, 2010). Considering modeling past and future climate, PRIMO aims to: (a) validate and identify the best model round products realized with the regional model Eta CPTEC and the MBSCG- Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System of the INPE, and the new rounds of paleoclimate modeling generated by several international groups for the 5th report of the IPCC (AR5), for Mid-Holocene scenarios (6 kyr BP), Last Glacial Maximum (21 kyr BP), and Last Millennium ( ); (b) conduct regional studies to understand the effect on regional climate of changes on land cover or orbital parameters for several typical situations of the past; (c) carry out future projections of climate and possible consequences for ecosystems. 7. Expected results and dissemination plan Our proposition is to reconstructing, for the last millennium: (1) the variability of tropical and South Atlantic SSTs from coral and marine sedimentary records; (2) the variability of 8

9 water balance (precipitation/evaporation) in the continental area from speleothems and lacustrine sedimentary records. The SSTs data obtained from the tropical and South Atlantic will be compared with those derived from the Pacific coast, which can advance the understanding of the following issues: (1) how is the variability evolved, on both sides of South America? (2) do climate variations observed in Western and Eastern margins of South America evolve in the same direction during the past? (3) what is the impact of these oceanic variabilities on south american biophysical continental systems? (4) which feedback effects of the ecosystems on tropical circulation? We will explore, using a data/models double approach for periods characterized by different climatic situations (heat/cold, wet/dry) and at a very high temporal resolution, the variability, trends and impacts of tropical Pacific and Atlantic SSTs and sea level variations on the hydrological cycle during the Middle Holocene, with emphasis on the last millennium. Within this project, we aim to enhance the collaboration between climate communities (past, present and future), hydrologist communities and environmental and societies communities (anthropo-systems studies). The challenge is to build an information system based on observation and modeling useful for decision making in terms of society protection and natural resources (not only water) management in the context of long term climate variability and climate change. During the execution of this project we will devote a significant effort to integrate other Brazilian institutions interested in this project to propose the creation of an INCT (National Institute of Science and technology) on climate change and natural disasters. The PRIMO project will offer possibilities of PhD and Master Thesis for Brazilian, South American and with a special effort for African students. The results obtained from these thesis and also those obtained on the framework of this project, will be published in scientific journals. We will also try to release our results to the public through newsletters, radio and TV programs. We will encourage meetings and participations to national (ABEQUA, SBGq, CBGeoquímica/CBGeologia/SBG, CBMeteorologia/SBM International Symposium of Geochemistry in tropical countries/isegtc,...) and international Congresses and Conferences (AGU, INQUA, ICP,.) 8. Added Value of intended Cooperation The Institute of Research for Development (IRD), through its joint research units (e.g., LOCEAN, LEGOS, ISEM, GET) and its International Mixed Laboratory in Brazil (i.e.paleotraces), established during the past 20 years a strong research network in Brazil, always counting on the cooperation and collaboration with Brazilian institutions as well as some Andean countries. In this way IRD has significantly contributed to the expansion and development of the thematic related with past, present and future climate. This cooperative project focused on Brazil, will also count with the collaboration of the South American network established through the LMI PALEOTRACES and supported by the IRD. This network will make accessible data from Peru, Chile and Andes, which can 9

10 help the knowledge of climate changes at regional scale, and principally in the Amazon, East and South-East Brazilian Regions. This project also aims the strengthening of academic activities, thus allowing the exchange between researchers/teachers of Brazilian and French institutions respectively. We will encourage, during the execution of this project, the integration of others Brazilians institutions to this network, as well as from other South American countries. A special effort will be developed towards African countries, principally from western Africa. 9. Consortium organization The project "PRIMO" involves three subgroups, which will be coordinated jointly by French and Brazilian researchers: The first subgroup "Past Climate : observations and validation" will be dedicate to reconstruct changes in temperature and/or precipitation from continental and marine paleorecords in studies zones involving: (i) the Department of Environmental Geochemistry of Federal Fluminense University (UFF); (ii) the laboratory of radio-ecology and global change of the State University of Rio de Janeiro (LARAMG-UERJ); (iii) various units of the University of São Paulo (USP) (i.e., the Institute of Geosciences (IGc), the school of Arts, Sciences and Humanities (EACH), the laboratory of magnetism of the Institute of atmospheric sciences and Geophysical (IAG), and the Institute of Oceanography (IO); (iv) the Sea Sciences Laboratory of the Federal University of Ceará (UFC-LABOMAR); (v) the mixed units research (UMRs): The laboratory of Oceanography and Climate: Experimentation and numeric analyses (LOCEAN); Institute of Sciences of the Evolution of Montpellier (ISEM) Geosciences of the Environment of Toulouse (GET); HyBAm Observatory of environmental research (Hydrologic controls and geodynamic, biogeochemistry of the erosion/alteration and material transfer of the Amazon basin) IRD; (vii) the UMRs: Institute of Earth sciences of Orleans. The calibration and validation studies of different paleoclimatic proxies will be made by comparison with instrumental data, when possible, during the last century. This axis will count with the participation of HYBAM project for the Amazon region and the foundation of meteorology and water resources of Ceará (FUNCEME) for the Northeast. The second subgroup "past and future Climate: modeling" has as objective to work with past and future models outputs, and will be based on strong collaboration between: (i) the Earth System Science Center (CCST) of the National Institute of Space Research, (ii) the National Laboratory of computer sciences (LNCC), (iii) the Institute of atmospheric sciences and Geophysical (IAG), (iv) the Institute of Oceanography (IO); (v) the laboratory of space research and geophysics of the Laboratory of Geophysics and Space Oceanography (LEGOS), (vi) the laboratory of climate and environment sciences (LSCE) and (vii) the laboratory of oceanography and climate: experimentation and numerical analyses (LOCEAN). The third subgroup Case Studies will focus its efforts on three Brazilian regions that suffer various types of natural disasters: (1) Eastern Amazon and Northeast, (2) South and Southeast, and (3) the East and Southeast Coast. Through the past and future climate 10

11 modeling and its effects on the Brazilian bio-climate regions, PRIMO aims also to establish trends in vulnerability to disasters on a local scale, whereas in the South, the Itajaí Valley and in the southeastern region, Córrego Dantas basin as well, making strategies to awareness managers public to consider these trends in developing strategies in long-term disaster control. It counts with the participation of researchers from institutions involved in the first two subgroups (1. Past climate: observations and validation, 2. Past and Future Climate: modeling) 10. Available infrastructure PRIMO will count with different laboratory structures and facilities of the institutions and universities involved in this project partnership. It will be supported by the infrastructure of the Department of Geochemistry of the Federal Fluminense University, equipments of the Radio-global change Ecology laboratory (UERJ). For the oxygen isotopic analysis of carbonates, mineralogical and magnetic, it counts respectively with the following equipments: mass spectrometer and X-Ray Diffractometry of IGc/USP. The chemical analyses applied to reconstruction of paleotemperature, will be conducted in the laboratories of IO/USP. The calibration of Paleoproxies data will involve the UMRs LOCEAN and GET of IRD and FUNCEME. The past and future climate modeling will be applied, within joint actions between institutions of the Working group 2, in the CCST/INPE, LNCC, IAG-USP and in the Physical Sciences Department of the UFC. It will also counts with the infrastructure of the LOCEAN, LMD and LSCE for. The CCST will provide the super computer station CRAY of the INPE Climate network to make rounds for past climate. 11. Requested budget and justification In addition of the financial support requested in the framework of PRIMO project, the execution of scientific activities, including laboratories and time computer, this project will be supported by number of projects already supported by Brazilian institutions (e.g., UFF, USP, UERJ, INPE, BRAZIL) and (IRD), as well as the "International Mixed laboratory PALEOTRACES. Additional resources are guaranteed by the National Agency of Research-France (ANR). In Brazil, it will also be supported by the INCTs climate change and Material Transfer from Continent to Ocean, as well as by the Network project of PETROBRAS "Resurgence of Cabo Frio". 12. Ethics, security and regulatory aspects 13. Intellectual Property The CNPq-Brasil, IRD-France, references of the CNPq call proposal and any institutions supporting any activities of PRIMO project have to be mentioned in the Acknowledgments of any scientific paper published in its framework. It must respect the standard bilateral clause (Brazil-France) established by the both part within this cooperative project in terms of data acquisition, scientific contributions, communications and publications. 11

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