North Belfast Economic Conference

Transcription

1 North Belfast Economic Conference Articulating the opportunity ulster.ac.uk

2 Introduction North Belfast s Economic Potential Current Context Transformational Opportunities An Exciting time for North Belfast A Very Different Future UU Belfast: Catalyst for change Projected Benefits: Construction Phase Projected Benefits: Operational Phase Projected Benefits: Increased Participation Projected Benefits: Increased Outreach Projected Benefits: Student Experience Projected Benefits: Student Expenditure Evidence from elsewhere Conclusion

3 Current Context Socio Economic Characteristics 105,000 North Belfast s population 104, , , , , , , , , ,000 people live in North Belfast, slightly off previous peaks but recovering Broadly similar age profile to NI as a whole with two thirds of working age 100, Source: NISRA North Belfast NI Total Population 103,115 1,840,498 Children (0-15)% of total 21% 21% Young working age (16-39 years) % of total 32% 32% Older working age (40-64)% of total 31% 32% Older (65+)% of total 16% 15% Source: NISRA

4 Current Context Socio Economic Characteristics Health Source: NINIS Close to one in five residents in receipt of at least one disability related benefit 2 nd Highest proportion of disability related benefit recipients 26.25% of people had a long-term health problem or disability that limited their day-to-day activities

5 Current Context Socio Economic Characteristics Education 74% of young people leaving school achieved at least five GCSEs at grades A*-C This is the 3 rd lowest rate in Northern Ireland Source: NINIS

6 Current Context Socio Economic Characteristics Higher Education Enrolments in North Belfast as % of adults 3.6% of North Belfast residents are enrolled in Higher Education This is lower than anywhere else in Northern Ireland Will the presence of a University and greater FE provision (e.ggirdwood) lead to greater access?

7 Current Context Socio Economic Characteristics A Service based economy 3% 2% 4% Relatively high unemployment rates Construction Manufacturing Services Other 91% Source: NINIS 45,000 employee jobs in North Belfast 6.5% of NI total 9 out of 10 jobs in the service sector Unemployment rate close to 10% -3 rd highest unemployment rate in NI Close to 40% economic inactivity

8 Current Context Socio Economic Characteristics Significant centre of city employment 33,000 (15%) of Belfast s jobs are within half a mile of the campus 4 out of every 10 Belfast jobs are within one mile of the campus 6 out of every 10 Belfast jobs are within 2 miles of the campus. Professional services, finance and retail account for the vast bulk of these jobs Source: Belfast City Council, Webb Advisory

9 Current Context Socio Economic Characteristics Significant Deprivation Significant deprivation persists in North Belfast 60% of residents live within the 30% most deprived NI areas Source: NINIS

10 Significant need now being met with large scale regeneration opportunity

11 Transformational Opportunities An exciting time for North Belfast

12 Transformational Opportunities An exciting time for North Belfast City Quays City Quays will deliver 2 Grade A Office Blocks, a Hotel, multi-storey car parking and some residential units Baker McKensie already a key tenant Potential for: c.2,500 office jobs c.100 retail jobs c.225 hotel jobs

13 Transformational Opportunities An exciting time for North Belfast Northside Regeneration Northside Regeneration project will create an opportunity for up to 300million of private sector investment and Estimated that over 1500 jobs will be created or safeguarded, and the overall value to the Northern Ireland economy will be in the region of 770m.

14 Transformational Opportunities An exciting time for North Belfast Streets Ahead 3 Public realm enhancements will deliver high quality streetscapes and open space, and will include improvements to surfacing, lighting, landscaping, street furniture and public artwork).

15 Transformational Opportunities An exciting time for North Belfast North Foreshore 340 Acres of development land 30 hectares being developed as a clean tech business cluster the first of its kind in NI Targeted with creating at least 1,215 construction jobs by 2020 Targeted with creating at least 400 jobs by 2020

16 Transformational Opportunities An exciting time for North Belfast Crumlin Road Gaol and Courthouse Crumlin Road Gaol example of getting regeneration right: Conference, exhibition and event space attracting >150,000 visitors per year 30 people employed Crumlin Road Courthouse example of missed opportunity

17 Transformational Opportunities An exciting time for North Belfast Girdwood Transformation of 14 acre site to include first class leisure and community facilities: Will include: Gym Youth space Community space Belfast Met Education space

18 Transformational Opportunities A Very Different Future North Belfast A cluster of planning applications around the new campus e.g. hotels, retail, offices, serviced accommodation Estimates of c.5000 jobs in addition to the University Source: Future Belfast

19 Transformational Opportunities A Very Different Future North Belfast Est. Potential Jobs Victoria Street Hotel 100 Northside Regeneration Mixed Use 1500 City Quays 1 office 1000 office 1500 retail 78 City Quays 2 City Quays Hotel Hotel 225 Tomb Street Hotel Hotel 313 1a College Sq East student beds 5 coffee shop Clifton Street shop 14 Mark Royal House student beds 5 student beds 5 28 Great Patrick street retail 23 coffee shop Little Patrick street student beds 5 apartments Little Patrick Street retail Royal Avenue student beds 5 Est. Potential Jobs Wellwood Street student beds York Street York Street student beds 5 retail 14 retail 14 retail 14 student beds 5 retail 11 retail York Street student beds 5 retail 21 Olympic tower apartments 5 commercial 51 Estimated Total Job Potential 5,002 Source: Future Belfast with Webb Advisory estimates

20 UU Belfast: Catalyst for Change The University of Ulster is at the very heart of the redevelopment area and has provided the stimulus for this regenerative change Director of Development Northside

21 UU Belfast: Catalyst for Change Projected Benefits Construction phase An investment of over 250 million Over 15,000 students and staff 3,784 job years in the construction phase (about 1,000 jobs) Total Capital Expenditure 254m GVA Impact - Direct - Indirect 80m 80m Total GVA Impact 160m Employment Impact (job years) - Direct - Indirect 1,892 1,892 Total Employment Impact 3,784 Source: Ulster University EPC

22 UU Belfast: Catalyst for Change Projected Benefits Operational Phase Ulster University is one of Northern Ireland s largest employers 1,310 employees will be on Belfast site Scheduling for the reprocurement of outsourced service contracts are timed to coincide with the move to the new campus. The university are exploring ways in which social clauses can be incorporated into the new procurement contracts contracts that will support c.500 jobs per annum. Campus Employment Levels (FTEs) and Salaries paid 2018/19 estimate Employees Single Belfast campus 1,310 Average Salary (Gross) 45,634 Estimated salaries GVA Impact (Direct) GVA Impact (Induced) Source: Ulster University EPC 59.8m 63.1m 21.4m Annual purchases of goods and services 000 Purchases 54,352 GVA Impact 16,920 Jobs Impact 497 Source: UU Financial Statements, EPC

23 UU Belfast: Catalyst for Change Projected Benefits Increased Participation Chart Shows level of young people s participation in HE by postcode Red bar is average score of each postcode in the UK where there is a University Participation levels: Quintiles HE Participation in UK regions, North Belfast and every UK University Postcode Suggests that the UU Belfast Campus will lead to greater levels of participation within North Belfast but not overnight! 0 Source: HEFCE, Webb Advisory

24 UU Belfast: Catalyst for Change Projected Benefits Increased Community Engagement The university has engaged with over 200 organisations in more than 350 events over the past two years. Event Types cover Number % Cert in Personal and Professional Development (CPPD) 15 4% CPPD Promotion 24 7% Exhibitions 29 8% Knowledge Club 24 7% Performance Arts 6 2% Public Lecture 75 21% Science Shop 84 23% Other % Total % There are proposals to increase engagement significantly by utilising the new space in the Belfast Campus

25 UU Belfast: Catalyst for Change Projected Benefits Student Experience Students can enrich an area in many ways Cultural Enhances reputation of city/town as vibrant, dynamic location and as an attractive destination Physical The existence of large numbers of young people help to make city centres attractive to social and retail spaces Economic Student presence can help stimulate urban regeneration Student presence ensures the viability of some retail businesses Social Student volunteering makes an important contribution to many aspects of social life An outdated stereotype

26 UU Belfast: Catalyst for Change Projected Benefits Student Expenditure The most immediate/wider opportunity comes from c.12,000 students spending in the area Estimates of >500 jobs supported as close to 100mannual spending from students Biggest Opportunities in groceries, leisure and clothing Music/Film/Gamin 0% g 3% Gym 2% Photocopying/Libr ary 2% Books & Course 4% Other 5% Phone Bill 6% Weekly Travel 12% Clothing 9% Sport 0% 9% Groceries 15% Going out 9% Eating Out 12% Alcohol 12% Opportunities for new business starts/social enterprise? How?

27 Evidence that it works Lincoln Regeneration The Brayford Campus was established in the heart of Lincoln on a brownfield site in Direct positive impact on consumption, procurement and property prices and values; Recent evaluation measured the impact of the University on local regeneration and the creation of new opportunities in an HE cold spot recently evaluated as at least 3,000 new jobs. Catalytic benefits: e.g. hotel, a high-tech incubation centre designed to support academic entrepreneurship and spin-outs. Increased the attractiveness of the city to private investors particularly in the retail and leisure sectors and residential property. Lincoln would not have undergone such major regeneration and redevelopment without the establishment of the University. Brayford, 1995 Brayford, 2005

28 Evidence that it works Manchester Metropolitan University Manchester Metropolitan University consolidated seven campuses to two as part of a 350 million investment. New Birley Campus opened in m investment in new academic and residential buildings, an energy centre and public realm. Brings nearly 7000 staff and students to an area of deprivation and low participation rates New Birley campus considered to be hugely beneficial as it creates a link between Hulme and the city centre. Increased interest in Birleyretail units Helped attract businesses such as UKFast, the Hulme based data-hosting centre. Science park beside the new campus has helped engender more business starts Brayford, 2005

29 Conclusion So much to play for There remains a lot of uncertainty around the opportunities in North Belfast Where else in Northern Ireland/UK is getting this scale of redevelopment within 2 square miles? A vastly different North Belfast lie ahead that can be scary! What is clear is that 15,000 students and staff bring considerable spending power Tapping into this spending power is part of the prize for North Belfast