Impacts of New Security Policies on Science AAAS Forum
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1 Impacts of New Security Policies on Science AAAS Forum April 2004 David Heyman, Senior Fellow Director, Homeland Security Program Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
2 Al Qaeda Fatwas Against America Annihilation of the US: The people of Islam should join forces and support each other to get rid of the main Kufr who is controlling the countries of the Islamic world. -Bin Laden Covert Action: Due to the imbalance of power between our armed forces and the enemy of forces, a suitable means of fighting must be adopted i.e. using fast moving light forces that work under complete secrecy. -Bin Laden Mass Casualties: The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies -- civilians and military--is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in, in any country in which it is possible to do it -Bin Laden US Economy: (destroy) the enemies of Allah.by means of destroying exploding, the structure of their civilized pillars such as the touristic infrastructure which they are proud of and their high world buildings. -Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman,
3 Post 9-11 Trends: Frontiers of War Post 9-11 Trends: Frontiers of War
4 Post 9-11 Trends: Science Resources Post 9-11 Trends: Science Resources Millions of dollars USDA DOC DOD DOE DHS EPA HHS NASA NSF DOT Other Total FY 2002 Actual FY 2003 Actual FY 2004 Estimate FY2005 Request Federal Agency Source: AAAS Report XXIX, Research and Development FY2005, w/ OMB data
5 Global Trends in Science: Resources Global Trends in Science: Resources
6 Global Trends in Science: Resources Global Trends in Science: Resources The US share of total world R&D is decreasing
7 Global Trends in Science: Resources Global Trends in Science: Resources The US share of total world R&D is decreasing 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% U.S. Share of G-7 U.S. Share of OECD more research capabilities are available outside the US. 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Est. US. Share of World (PPP international $) Est. U.S. Share of World (currency exchange rates)
8 Global Trends in Science: Resources Global Trends in Science: Resources The US share of total world R&D is decreasing 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% U.S. Share of G-7 U.S. Share of OECD more research capabilities are available outside the US. an increasing percentage of peerreviewed articles submitted to APS from the world than from the US. 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Est. US. Share of World (PPP international $) Est. U.S. Share of World (currency exchange rates)
9 Global Trends in Science: Interactions Global Trends in Science: Interactions
10 Global Trends in Science: Interactions Global Trends in Science: Interactions Some issues can only be addressed through international cooperation
11 Global Trends in Science: Interactions Global Trends in Science: Interactions Some issues can only be addressed through international cooperation increased scale and complexity of experiments demanding greater costsharing.
12 Global Trends in Science: Interactions Global Trends in Science: Interactions Some issues can only be addressed through international cooperation increased scale and complexity of experiments demanding greater costsharing. transnational problems requiring regional cooperation.
13 Global Trends in Science: Interactions Global Trends in Science: Interactions Some issues can only be addressed through international cooperation increased scale and complexity of experiments demanding greater costsharing. transnational problems requiring regional cooperation. advancement of international political interests.
14 Global Trends in Science: Interactions Global Trends in Science: Interactions Some issues can only be addressed through international cooperation EXAMPLES: increased scale and complexity of experiments demanding greater costsharing. space exploration, high energy physics, human genome program transnational problems requiring regional cooperation. advancement of international political interests.
15 Global Trends in Science: Interactions Global Trends in Science: Interactions Some issues can only be addressed through international cooperation EXAMPLES: increased scale and complexity of experiments demanding greater costsharing. advancement of international political interests. space exploration, high energy physics, human genome program transnational problems climate change, requiring regional cooperation. earthquakes, control of emerging infectious diseases
16 Global Trends in Science: Interactions Global Trends in Science: Interactions Some issues can only be addressed through international cooperation EXAMPLES: increased scale and complexity of experiments demanding greater costsharing. transnational problems requiring regional cooperation. advancement of international political interests. space exploration, high energy physics, human genome program climate change, earthquakes, control of emerging infectious diseases weapons disposal, NATO integration, nuclear issues, technical standards
17 Global Trends in Science: Conduct Global Trends in Science: Conduct
18 Global Trends in Science: Conduct Global Trends in Science: Conduct As R&D capabilities expand globally
19 Global Trends in Science: Conduct Global Trends in Science: Conduct As R&D capabilities expand globally international scientist-to-scientist collaborations are increasing.
20 Global Trends in Science: Conduct Global Trends in Science: Conduct As R&D capabilities expand globally international scientist-to-scientist collaborations are increasing. more scientists are coauthoring papers and partnering with their international colleagues.
21 Global Trends in Science: Workforce Global Trends in Science: Workforce
22 Global Trends in Science: Workforce Global Trends in Science: Workforce As countries expand their science and technology capabilities
23 Global Trends in Science: Workforce Global Trends in Science: Workforce As countries expand their science and technology capabilities researchers are becoming a growing portion of the global workforce.
24 Global Trends in Science: Workforce Global Trends in Science: Workforce As countries expand their science and technology capabilities researchers are becoming a growing portion of the global workforce. US scientists & engineers engaged in R&D as a percentage of G-7 total is decreasing. 49.0% 48.0% 47.0% 46.0% 45.0% 44.0% 43.0% 42.0%
25 Global Trends in Science: Workforce US Science & Engineering Pipeline The total pool of US citizens entering the US science & engineering workforce has shrunk
26 Global Trends in Science: Workforce US Science & Engineering Pipeline The total pool of US citizens entering the US science & engineering workforce has shrunk fewer undergraduates are choosing physics. Undergraduates
27 Global Trends in Science: Workforce US Science & Engineering Pipeline The total pool of US citizens entering the US science & engineering workforce has shrunk fewer undergraduates are choosing physics. more foreigners, fewer US citizens are first-year graduate students in US physics and astronomy. Undergraduates Graduate Students
28 Global Trends in Science: Workforce US Science & Engineering Pipeline The total pool of US citizens entering the US science & engineering workforce has shrunk fewer undergraduates are choosing physics. more foreigners, fewer US citizens are first-year graduate students in US physics and astronomy. US physics and astronomy graduate students prefer academia or industry to government labs. Undergraduates Graduate Students Career Preferences (FY97)
29 Global Trends in Science: Summary Global Trends in Science: Summary
30 Global Trends in Science: Summary Global Trends in Science: Summary Resources
31 Global Trends in Science: Summary Global Trends in Science: Summary Resources Increasingly Distributed Internationally
32 Global Trends in Science: Summary Global Trends in Science: Summary Resources Increasingly Distributed Internationally Decreasing in Physical Sciences
33 Global Trends in Science: Summary Global Trends in Science: Summary Resources Increasingly Distributed Internationally Decreasing in Physical Sciences Workforce
34 Global Trends in Science: Summary Global Trends in Science: Summary Resources Increasingly Distributed Internationally Decreasing in Physical Sciences Workforce Increasingly Available Internationally
35 Global Trends in Science: Summary Global Trends in Science: Summary Resources Increasingly Distributed Internationally Decreasing in Physical Sciences Workforce Increasingly Available Internationally Decreasing in the US
36 Global Trends in Science: Summary Global Trends in Science: Summary Resources Increasingly Distributed Internationally Decreasing in Physical Sciences Workforce Increasingly Available Internationally Decreasing in the US Interactions
37 Global Trends in Science: Summary Global Trends in Science: Summary Resources Increasingly Distributed Internationally Decreasing in Physical Sciences Workforce Increasingly Available Internationally Decreasing in the US Interactions Increasingly International
38 Global Trends in Science: Summary Global Trends in Science: Summary Resources Increasingly Distributed Internationally Decreasing in Physical Sciences Workforce Increasingly Available Internationally Decreasing in the US Interactions Increasingly International Conduct
39 Global Trends in Science: Summary Global Trends in Science: Summary Resources Increasingly Distributed Internationally Decreasing in Physical Sciences Workforce Increasingly Available Internationally Decreasing in the US Interactions Increasingly International Conduct Increasingly Networked and Collaborative
40 Global Trends in Science: Summary Global Trends in Science: Summary Resources Increasingly Distributed Internationally Decreasing in Physical Sciences Workforce Increasingly Available Internationally Decreasing in the US Interactions Increasingly International Conduct Increasingly Networked and Collaborative Nature
41 Global Trends in Science: Summary Global Trends in Science: Summary Resources Increasingly Distributed Internationally Decreasing in Physical Sciences Workforce Increasingly Available Internationally Decreasing in the US Interactions Increasingly International Conduct Increasingly Networked and Collaborative Nature Increased Emphasis on Simulation and Modeling
42 Trends in Flows of People to the U.S. Trends in Flows of People to the U.S. Non-Immigrant Visas (FY99-03) 400, , , , , , ,000 50, B 1/B 2 (/10) Temporary visitor for business and pleasure J 1 Exchange visitor F 1 Student (academic or language training program) F 1 Student (academic or language training program) H 1B Temporary w orker of distinguished merit
43 Impacts of New Security Policies on Science AAAS Forum April 2004 David Heyman, Senior Fellow Director, Homeland Security Program Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
44 Trends in Publications Trends in Publications
45 Collaborating Countries Collaborating Countries
46 Fifty Years of United States Investments in R&D US investments in R&D have shifted from the public sector to the private sector. Percent of R&D Investments Federal Investments Private Secto
47 Fifty Years of United States Investments in R&D US investments in R&D have shifted from the public sector to the private sector. and from defense to non-defense R&D with an increased emphasis on health sciences and a decrease in the physical sciences. Percent of R&D Investments Federal Investments Private Secto
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