Policy Notes. Typhoons, floods, and droughts. regional occurrence and value of damages to rice farming in the Philippines

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1 Philippine Institute for Development Studies Surian sa mga Pag-aaral Pangkaunlaran ng Pilipinas ISSN No (September 2012) Typhoons, floods, and droughts: regional occurrence and value of damages to rice farming in the Philippines Danilo C. Israel Typhoons, floods, and droughts negatively impact the agriculture sector of the Philippines. Rice farming in particular is among the hardest hit because it is practiced in open areas. Furthermore, some riceproducing regions in the country are relatively more affected than others due to their greater exposure to these natural disasters. This looks into the regional occurrence of typhoons, floods, and droughts in the Philippines and the value of the damages that they cause on rice farming, particularly in terms of production losses. The objective is to highlight the regional differences and suggest some strategies to address them. In addition, this intends to identify new studies that can be undertaken related to typhoons, floods, and droughts; concerns which currently have limited economic research focus in the country. Definitions and data From an economic perspective, a natural disaster is an event that causes a perturbation to the functioning of the economic system, with significant negative impact on assets, production factors, output, employment, or consumption (Hallegatte and Przyluski 2010). Some natural disasters, including typhoons, floods, droughts, sea level rise, storm surges, mudslides, and water-induced landslides are meteorological and hydrological. The first three, specifically, are highly damaging to rice farming in their affected areas. PIDS are observations/analyses written by PIDS researchers on certain policy issues. The treatise is holistic in approach and aims to provide useful inputs for decisionmaking. The author is Senior Research Fellow at PIDS. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of PIDS or any of the study s sponsors.

2 2 According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the government agency that provides meteorological, astronomical, climatological, and other specialized data and information as well as services in the country, a typhoon is a tropical cyclone with winds that exceed 118 kilometers per hour that occurs in the Western Pacific. A flood is an abnormal progressive rise in the water level of a stream that may result in the overflowing by the water of the normal confines of the stream with the subsequent inundation of areas which are not normally submerged. A drought is an abnormally dry weather in a region over an extended period of time. This used secondary data taken from institutional sources. Regional data on the occurrence of typhoons, floods, and droughts were generated from the unpublished records of the PAGASA and the Department of Agriculture (DA). Regional data on the value of damages to rice farming due to typhoons, floods, and droughts at the regional level were also taken from the unpublished records of the DA. The period covered by the analysis was limited by the available annual regional data from the aforementioned sources. Table 1. Number of occurrences of typhoons in the Philippines by year and by region, Regions Total Annual Average Philippines CAR I - Ilocos Region II - Cagayan Valley III - Central Luzon IV-A - CALABARZON IV-B - MIMAROPA V - Bicol Region VI - Western Visayas VII - Central Visayas VIII - Eastern Visayas IX - Zamboanga Peninsula X - Northern Mindanao XI - Southern Mindanao XII - Central Mindanao XIII - Caraga ARMM : The typhoons counted were only those with assigned signals. The National Capital Region (NCR) was excluded here because it was not a rice-producing region. Figures for annual average were rounded off. Source of data: PAGASA Occurrence of typhoons, floods, and droughts Typhoons From 2007 to 2010, the Philippines experienced a total of 67 typhoons or an average of 17 typhoons yearly (Table 1). The number of typhoons increased in 2008 and 2009 and then abruptly decreased in The most number of typhoons occurred in 2009 at 22 while the least happened in 2010 at 11. The regions which experienced more typhoons from 2007 to 2010 were Region II, Region I, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Region III, Region IV-A, Region IV-B, Region VI, and Region VIII in that order. These regions are located in Luzon except Region VIII which is located in the Visayas. The Visayas regions of Region VII and Region VI and the Mindanao regions of Region X and Region XIII followed.

3 3 The rest of the Mindanao Table 2. Regions affected by floods and droughts in the Philippines, regions had the fewest Region typhoons with Region XI Floods Droughts Floods Droughts Floods Droughts Floods Droughts having one typhoon and CAR Regions IX, XII, and Region I Autonomous Region in Region II Region III Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) Region IV-A having no typhoon on Region IV-B Region V average yearly. The World Region VI Bank Group (2011) Region VII explained that while the Region VIII Region IX trend in the occurrence of Region X typhoons is still a subject Region XI Region XII of much debate, some Region XIII studies suggest that in ARMM the future typhoons are means affected while means not affected. likely to intensify in the Source of data: Department of Agriculture (DA) Pacific including the Philippines with rising sea surface temperatures causing higher wind speeds and/or more intense rainfall. weather systems may increase in both intensity and frequency in the Philippines and exacerbate the incidence of flooding in existing floodprone areas as well as introduce a risk of Floods flooding to new areas. There were no regional data available on the number of occurrence of floods and droughts in the Philippines. Data on the regions affected by floods were used instead as proxy. From 2007 to 2010, more regions were affected by floods in 2008 followed by 2009, 2007, and 2010 (Table 2). Region VI was affected by floods every year. On the other hand, CAR, Region I, and Region IV-A were not subjected to floods at all. Between Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, there was no discernible flood pattern as all were affected at one time or another. The World Bank Group (2011) stated that over time, heavy rainfall associated with typhoons and other Droughts During the period , droughts affected some regions in the Philippines only in 2007 and 2010 (Table 2). More regions experienced droughts in 2010 than in In 2007, all regions in Luzon except Region IV-A and Region VI were affected while no regions in the Visayas and Mindanao were hit by droughts. In 2010, all regions in Luzon except CAR were affected; only Region VI in the Visayas was hit; and all regions in Mindanao except Region XIII experienced droughts. The data indicated that on an annual basis, Luzon was more affected by droughts

4 4 than Visayas and Mindanao. As in the case of typhoons and floods, the World Bank Group (2011) explained that droughts will likely intensify in the country in the foreseeable future. Value of damages to rice farming Typhoons For the entire period from 2007 to 2010, the total value of damages to rice farming due to typhoons in the Philippines amounted to PHP 31, million or an average of PHP 7, million annually (Table 3). Based on annual data not presented here for brevity, the damages increased in 2008 and 2009 and decreased in Regionally, Region III had Table 3. Value of damages to rice farming due to typhoons, floods, and droughts in the Philippines by region, (million pesos) Typhoons Floods Droughts All Region Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Philippines 31, , , , , , , , CAR 2, , Region I 7, , , , Region II 6, , , , , , Region III 10, , , , Region IV-A , Region IV-B , , Region V 1, , Region VI 1, , , Region VII Region VIII Region IX Region X Region XI Region XII , Region XIII ARMM Note: - means 0. Source of data: DA the highest value of damages at PHP 10, million or PHP 2, million annually while Region XI had the lowest with no recorded value of damages. The regional values of damages to rice farming were generally consistent with the regional occurrence of typhoons. Luzon regions which had the higher occurrence of typhoons during the period also had larger total value of damages relative to those in the Visayas and Mindanao. Between specific regions in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, however, it did not necessarily follow that the regions with higher or lower occurrence of typhoons also registered higher or lower total value of damages. Floods The total value of damages to rice farming due to floods in the Philippines from 2007 to 2010 amounted to PHP 4, million or an average of PHP 1, million yearly (Table 3). The value of damages increased in 2008, decreased in 2009, and rose again in Regionally, the highest total value of damages occurred in Region II at PHP 1, million or an annual average of

5 5 PHP million while the lowest was in CAR, Region I, and Region IV-A which did not register any value of damages. The latter regions, as shown earlier, were not affected by floods during the period. As in the case of flood occurrence, there was no obvious pattern in the value of damages between Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. It also did not necessarily follow that between specific regions, those that were more or less affected by floods also registered higher or lower total value of damages. Droughts For the whole period from 2007 to 2010, the total value of damages to rice farming due to droughts in the Philippines amounted to PHP 9, million or an average of PHP 2, million annually (Table 3). Between the two years when droughts affected some regions, the value of damages in 2010 was higher than those in Regionally, the highest value of damages occurred in Region II at PHP 3, million or an annual average of PHP million while the least were in Region VII, Region VIII, and Region XIII which did not register any value of damages. The latter regions were indicated earlier as not affected by drought during the period. The results showed that Luzon which was more affected by droughts also experienced higher total value of damages followed by Mindanao and Visayas. However, as in the case of typhoons and floods, it did not necessarily follow that those that were more or less affected by droughts also registered higher or lower total value of damages. All The total value of damages to rice farming due to typhoons, floods, and droughts in the Philippines for the entire period from 2007 to 2010 amounted to PHP 46, million or PHP 11, million on average annually (Table 3). Regionally, Region II had the highest value of damages at PHP 11, million or an annual average of PHP 2, while Region VII had the least at PHP million or PHP 3.64 million on average annually. Regions in Luzon experienced higher value of damages than those in the Visayas and Mindanao. Furthermore, among the three natural disasters, typhoons resulted in much higher values of damages followed by droughts and floods. Conclusion and recommendations In review, this found that: a) there were regional differences in the occurrence of typhoons, floods, and droughts and the value of damages that they caused on rice farming in the Philippines; b) Luzon regions were more affected by and registered higher value of damages to rice farming due to typhoons and droughts; c) there were no discernible differences in the case of floods between Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao regions; and d) typhoons contributed more to the total value of damages followed by droughts and floods. Recent studies have been undertaken to address the impacts of specific typhoon and drought events on agriculture and rice farming (e.g., GOP 2009, 2009a, 2010). The recommendations of these studies and others should be seriously considered by the government in crafting

6 6 strategies to address the impacts of natural disasters on rice farming in particular and the agriculture sector in general. Since the available evidence suggests that there are regional differences in the occurrence of and value of damages due to typhoons and droughts in the case of rice farming, disaster assistance for farmers related to these natural disasters may be made more site-specific, zeroing in on the most affected regions of the country. In general, Luzon rice farmers may be given more attention without unduly jeopardizing assistance to those in Visayas and Mindanao. Furthermore, typhoon-related assistance may be given more emphasis vis-à-vis flood and drought-related assistance as typhoons caused the highest value of damages to rice farming. If and when necessary data and information are available, a succeeding study on the occurrence of and damages due to natural disasters on rice farming that covers a longer period and is localized, i.e., provincial level, would be useful. This study may consider not only the direct and short-term production losses to rice farming but also the indirect and long-term economic losses For further information, please contact The Research Information Staff Philippine Institute for Development Studies NEDA sa Makati Building, 106 Amorsolo Street, Legaspi Village, 1229 Makati City Telephone Nos: (63-2) and Fax Nos: (63-2) and disrael@mail.pids.gov.ph; publications@pids.gov.ph The series is available online at Reentered as second class mail at the Business Mail Service Office under Permit No. PS NCR. Valid until December 31, as well as the social, environmental, and other associated losses. Furthermore, a study that looks into the impacts of natural disasters not only on rice farming and agriculture but also on the broader issue of food security would be welcome. References Government of the Philippines (GOP) Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng: postdisaster needs assessment. Joint initiative of the Government of the Republic of the Philippines, Representatives of the Private Sector and Civil Society Organizations, Multilateral Development Partners, and Bilateral Development Partners a. Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng: postdisaster needs assessment sector reports. Joint initiative of the Government of the Republic of the Philippines, Representatives of the Private Sector and Civil Society Organizations, Multilateral Development Partners, and Bilateral Development Partners The updated Philippine National Action Plan: desertification, land degradation, and drought, FY Department of Agriculture, Department of Agrarian Reform, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, and Department of Science and Technology. Hallegatte, S. and V. Przyluski The economics of natural disasters concepts and methods. Research Working Paper The World Bank, Sustainable Development Network. Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). n.d. Meteorological terms [online]. metterms/metterms.html.. n.d. Definition and nature of flood [online]. genmet/floods/def_nature.html. The World Bank Group Vulnerability, risk reduction, and adaptation to climate change in the Philippines. Climate Risk and Adaptation Country Profile.