New Orleans Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System Managing Risk

Transcription

1 New Orleans Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System Managing Risk by Karen Durham-Aguilera, P.E. Director Task Force Hope U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Aug 18, 2008

2 2 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers People: Corps wide - 34,000 Civil Works - 24,000 MVD - 5,

3 3 Mississippi Valley Division Six districts 5,000 employees 370,000 square mile boundary, encompassing all or parts of 12 states 4,267 miles of commercial waterways 36 flood control reservoirs 59 locks Drainage basin covers 1.25 million square miles and gathers water from 41% of the continental US (31 states & 2 Canadian provinces)

4 New Orleans Area Hurricane Storm Damage Risk Reduction System 5 Parishes 350 Miles of Levee/Floodwall 73 Pumping Stations (Fed & Non-Fed) 4 Gated Outlets Legend Federal Federal Non-COE Non-Federal Disciplined People, Disciplined Thought, Disciplined Action

5 5 17 TH St. Canal 1878

6 New Orleans Topography ELEVATIONS IN FEET NGVD City of New Orleans Ground Elevations FLOODWALL ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER 23 FT MISSISSIPPI RIVER BANK A CANAL ST AT RIVER ST LOUIS CATHEDRAL PROJECT DESIGN FLOWLINE (18 FEET) ESPLANADE AT ST. CLAUDE DERBIGNY AT I-10 LAKE PONCHARTRAIN B NEW ORLEANS From Canal St. at Mississippi River to the Lakefront at U.N.O. Disciplined People, Disciplined Thought, Disciplined Action A GENTILLY BLVD AT ALLEN MISS. R. LONDON AVENUE CANAL FLOODWALL HURRICANE LEVEE / FLOODWALL (14.0 FEET) DILLARD UNIV CAMPUS ST ANTHONY AT FILMORE AVE WAINRIGHT DR AT L. C. SIMON UNO SIDE OF WAINWRIGHT DR B LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN SHORE

7 7 Hurricane Katrina Aug 29, 2005 Hurricane Rita Sep 24, 2005 One of America s largest natural disasters Cat 5 less than 12 hrs before landfall 127 MPH wind at Louisiana landfall Maximum surge of 28 to 30 feet along Mississippi coast 80 percent of the city of New Orleans flooded Cat 4 less than 12 hrs before landfall 175 MPH max sustained winds in Gulf of Mexico 120 MPH max sustained winds at landfall Cat 3 strength at landfall

8 8 The Nations Energy Coast Maintaining and protecting the Mississippi River and the Louisiana Port Complex and its relevance to the nation

9 Louisiana oil & gas wells Outer continental shelf oil & gas wells Deep water oil & gas wells Permanent deep water structures Offshore pipelines Disciplined People, Disciplined Thought, Disciplined Action 9

10 10 Coastal Louisiana Fisheries Importance to the Nation Home to 25% of Continental US commercial fisheries Over 1 billion pounds caught annually Dockside value $291 million Recreation value $944 million

11 11 USACE s s Actions for Change Comprehensive systems approach Risk-informed informed decision making Communication of risk to the public Professional and technical expertise

12 US Army Corps of Engineers HSDRRS: Our Mission and Commitment Repair the damages, making what was there before whole again. Strengthen and improve the system and provide 100-year level of protection capable of withstanding the effects of a storm having a 1% chance of occurring each year. Current funding level $12.8 B (Federal Funds). Study and recommend solutions to provide higher levels of protection; restore and protect coastal wetlands (LaCPR). Disciplined People, Disciplined Thought, Disciplined Action 12

13 US Army Corps of Engineers How We Deliver U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS Mississippi Valley Division BG Michael Walsh Task Force Hope Karen Durham-Aguilera (SES) St. Paul District Rock Island District St. Louis District Vicksburg District Memphis District New Orleans District Protection Restoration Office COL Al Lee Hurricane Protection Office COL Jeff Bedey Air Force Center for Engineering and Environment (AFCEE) Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) Walla Walla District Cost Center of Expertise Corps Planning Centers of Expertise Omaha District Rapid Response Philadelphia District Peer Review Center of Expertise (Examples) USACE Reachback Disciplined People, Disciplined Thought, Disciplined Action 13

14 Current System Programmatic Schedule CY Current Jun Sep Date Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep Levees, Floodwalls, Armoring Perimeter Protection IHNC Permanent Pumping Pump Repair Interior Drainage Plaquemines Larose to GM Grand Isle Planning Peak Hurricane Season LaCPR SELA Storm Proof Subsequent Actions *New appropriations available start of FY 09 Disciplined People, Disciplined Thought, Disciplined Action Baseline Schedule: Pre-award Construction Required Funding (10/08) 100 Year Protection Operational Goal: 6/1/11 LPV PPA (8/31/08) WBV PPA (9/12/08) 14

15 US Army Corps of Engineers Construction Status Total expected construction contracts: ~350 Awarded 170+ construction contracts for $2.3B Overall Program Estimate: ~$14.6B 45 construction contracts worth $1.2B ongoing 2008 and Beyond 2008 Anticipate awarding about 40+ contracts for around $2B Awarded IHNC Surge Protection w/advance Measures Award 30+ contracts for Levees, Floodwalls and Armoring Award 3 contracts for pump station repairs Award 3 contracts for SELA (interior drainage) Disciplined People, Disciplined Thought, Disciplined Action 15

16 16 Cost Estimate Process Design Material Quantities STATE OF THE ART Repeatable & Sustainable Crew Production Rates System Cost Estimate Schedule Risk Analysis Validation of Unit Prices Material & Labor Cost Variables Market Analysis Risk Impacts External Independent Technical Review

17 17 Market and Risk Analysis Performed by World Class industry experts Analyzed key materials, equipment and labor Researched market prices Projected future costs Assessed potential for supply constraints Cost & quantity uncertainties captured and analyzed Developed Risk Register (cost & schedule risk) Risk items linked to specific affected activities

18 18 Cost to Complete Key Features: Repair, restore and construct authorized projects and build 100- year level of protection System Unprecedented estimating, engineering and construction processes, aggressive schedule Risk Analysis and Market Analysis by industry experts Independent and external peer review by industry experts Manage as a SYSTEM Reflects: lessons learned from IPET state of the art storm projection modeling, risk and reliability analysis, updates for levee and floodwall design criteria new datum and sea level rise

19 19 IPET and Risk Informed Planning Forensic Analysis and Risk-Based System-Wide Assessment STORM SYSTEM CONSEQUENCES Results are in the Ground

20 20 HPDC Findings: Key Decision Influences Tyranny of Incremental Decisions Loss of Vision for an Integrated System Shared Sensitivity to Cost Concerns = Lack of Dynamic Use of New Information Institutional Response Organizational Decision-Making Issues

21 From Modeling to Designs Prob (Hurricane Characteristics & Tracks) (including climate variability) Wind Field Planetary Boundary Layer Model Surge Models Model Output Wave Models Time History of Surge and Waves by Location 8 7 Water Elevation Elevation, (ft) ft Time, (days) Frequency curves Stillwater Elevations, Wave height, wave period (1%, 0.2%, etc) USACE Designs 152 storm hydrographs at each of 138 locations for 3 HPS conditions Disciplined People, Disciplined Thought, Disciplined Action 21

22 The Design Process: Levees Frequency Curves - Stillwater Elevations, Wave Height, Wave Period (1%, 0.2%, etc) Uncertainty: Monte Carlo Simulation Crest x B SWL toe (x, e)=(0,0) h B Foreshore and Berm B > 0.25L o breaking wave location for foreshore analysis Levee Height and Slope Wave Runup and Overtopping: PC-Overslag Design Elevation and Slope Disciplined People, Disciplined Thought, Disciplined Action 22

23 23 The Design Process: Floodwalls Frequency Curves - Stillwater Elevations, Wave Height, Wave Period (1%, 0.2%, etc) Wall Height Wave Forces: GODA Uncertainty: Monte Carlo Simulation Wave Runup and Overtopping: Franco and Franco Uncertainty: Monte Carlo Simulation Structure Design Elevation Structure Wave Loads

24 24 HSDRRS Design Heights

25 External Peer Review Disciplined People, Disciplined Thought, Disciplined Action 25

26 26 Buying Down Risk Initial Risk Zoning Building Codes Outreach Evacuation Plan Insurance Risk Levees / Floodwalls / Structures Residual Risk

27 27 Communicating Risk: Stakeholders and Media COLLABORATE with stakeholders on public product Work with media at all levels to UNDERSTAND Hold media backgrounders Time to prepare graphics Time to provide comprehensive, factual coverage held 2 days prior to map public release RULES: media agreed to embargo info until formal press conference. BE AVAILABLE for follow-on calls, for explanations and additional information (Dr. Link, KD-A, LTC Berczek, PAO and team) GOT IT RIGHT: First stories out were factual, comprehensive, correct, and picked up by other media

28 The Results: Local Coverage The Times-Picayune Disciplined People, Disciplined Thought, Disciplined Action 28

29 29 The Results: National Coverage Front-page, Column 1, Above the fold Page 3 Page 2

30 30 How We Are Executing Team Approach Partnering: Gathering input Identifying needs of local stakeholders IPET Gathering technical resources Collaborative solutions

31 31 Industry Interaction Industry Day: Event to discuss the project concept and innovative means to design and construct project to reduce risk to communities HSDRRS Industry Day Summer 2006 Southern Closure Structure Industry Day Summer 2008 Innovative Workshops: : Forum to discuss and gather information from industry to determine the best engineering solution Ground improvement techniques workshop national and international participation (August 2007) Innovative products and methods: envirotubes, geotubes, portadams,, composite sheet piles, HESCO baskets

32 32 Best Practices: System Program Management Acquisition Strategy Design Build Contracts Cost Reimbursable Contracting Construction Materials Government Furnished Borrow and Borrow Supply Supply Contracts for Foundation Piles Improved Designs Value Engineering systems study complete Pile Load Tests in advance of contract award Industry and Stakeholder Solution Workshops Construction Sequencing Maximum Risk Reduction Cost Estimating Team Includes Risk and Market Analysis

33 33 System Program Management Support Program management Project management Construction management Coastal restoration Environmental compliance General engineering Geographic information system (GIS) analysis Market analysis, cost estimating, and scheduling Public affairs and community outreach

34 New Orleans Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System Managing Risk by Karen Durham-Aguilera, P.E. Director Task Force Hope U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Aug 18, 2008