2 Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply Strategic Management Offi ce Minister`s Offi ce PROJECTIONS OF AGRIBUSINESS Brazil 2013/14 to 2023/24 Long-Term Projections Brasília DF September 2014
3 2014 Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. All rights reserved. Reproduction permitted provided the source is acknowledged. Responsibility for copyright texts and images of this work is the author. 5th edition. year 2014 Circulation: copies Preparation, distribution, information: MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FOOD SUPPLY Strategic Management Office General Coordination of Strategic Planning Block D, 7th floor, room 752 CEP: Brasília / DF.: Tel (61) : Fax (61) Customer Service: Editorial coordination: AGE / Mapa Impresso no Brasil / Printed in Brazil Catalogação na Fonte Biblioteca Nacional de Agricultura - BINAGRI Brazil. Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply. Projections of agribusiness : Brazil 2013/14 to 2019/20 Longterm Projections / Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply. Strategic Management Advisory Board. Brasília : MAPA/ACS, p. ISBN Agronegócio- Brasil. 2. Desenvolvimento Econômico. I. Título. II. Título : Brazil 2013/14 to 2019/20 Long-term Projections. AGRIS E71 CDU
4 TEAM: AGE/Mapa SGE/Embrapa João Cruz Reis Filho Renato de Oliveira Brito Geraldo da Silva e Souza Eliane Gonçalves Gomes José Garcia Gasques Eliana Teles Bastos Marco Antonio A. Tubino TECHNICAL PARTNERS: Alcido Elenor Wander (Embrapa) Aroldo Antônio O. Neto (Conab) Carlos Martins Santiago (Embrapa) Cid Jorge Caldas (Agroenergia/Mapa) Daniel Furlan Amaral (Abiove) Dirceu Talamini (Embrapa) Djalma F. de Aquino (Conab) Eledon Oliveira (Conab) Elieser Barros Correia (Ceplac) Erly Cardoso Teixeira (UFV) Fabio Trigueirinho (Abiove) Francisco Braz Saliba (Bracelpa) Francisco Olavo B. Sousa (Conab) Glauco Carvalho (Embrapa) Gustavo Firmo (Mapa) Joaquim Bento S. Ferreira (Esalq) Kennya B. Siqueira (Embrapa) Leonardo Botelho Zilio (Abiove) Lucilio Rogério Aparecido Alves (Esalq) Luis Carlos Job (Mapa) Luiz Antônio Pinazza (Abag) Milton Bosco Jr. (Bracelpa) Olavo Sousa (Conab) Tiago Quintela Giuliani (Mapa) Wander Sousa (Conab)
5 SUMMARY 1. INTRODUCTION 2. SCENARIOS OF PROJECTIONS 3. METHODOLOGY 4. RESULTS FOR BRAZIL a. Grains b. Coton Lint c. Rice d. Bean e. Corn f. Wheat g. Soybean Complex h. Coffee i. Milk j. Sugar k. Orange and Orange Juice l. Meat m. Pulp and Paper n. Tobacco o. Fruits 5. RESULTS OF REGIONAL PROJECTIONS 6. SUMMARY 7. BIBLIOGRAPHY ANNEX 1 - Methodological Note ANNEX 2 - Results Tables
6 LIST OF ACRONYMS ABIOVE - Associação Brasileira da Indústria de Óleos Vegetais ABRAF- Associação Brasileira de Produtores de Florestas Plantadas AGE - Assessoria de Gestão Estratégica BRACELPA- Associação Brasileira de Celulose e Papel CECAT - Centro de Estudos Estratégicos e Capacitação em Agricultura Tropical CNA - Confederação da Agricultura e Pecuária do Brasil CONAB - Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento CEPLAC - Comissão Executiva de Planejamento da Lavoura Cacaueira EMBRAPA Gado de Leite - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAPRI - Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística ICONE - Instituto de Estudos do Comércio e Negociações Internacionais IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute IPEA - Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada MAPA - Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento OECD - Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development ONU - Organização das Nações Unidas SGE- Secretaria de Gestão Estratégica UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa UNICA - União da Indústria de Cana-de-açúcar USDA - United States Department of Agriculture
7 6 1. INTRODUCTION This report is an update and revision of the report Projections of Agribusiness - Brazil 2012/13 to 2022/23, Brasília - DF, June 2013, published by the Strategic Management Office of Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply. The study aims to indicate possible directions of development and provide support to policy makers about the trends of the major agribusiness products. The results also seek to answer to a large number of users in various sectors of national and international economy for which the information now disclosed are of enormous importance. The trends indicated will identify possible trajectories, as well as to structure future vision of agribusiness in the global context for the country keep growing and conquering new markets. Projections of Agribusiness - Brazil 2013/14 to 2023/24 is a prospective view of the sector, the basis for strategic planning of MAPA - Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply. For their preparation the work of brazilian and international organizations were consulted, some of them based on models projections. Among the surveyed institutions highlight the work of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development ( OECD), United Nations (UN), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Policy Research Institute / Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Japan (PRIMAFF), Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil (CNA), Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Institute for International Trade Negotiations (ICONE), Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA), National Supply Company (Conab), Embrapa Dairy Cattle, Energy Research Company (EPE), the Sugar Cane Industry Union (UNICA), Brazilian Association of Planted Forest Producers (ABRAF), Federation of Industries of São Paulo (FIESP), STCP Consulting, Engineering and Management, Brazilian Association of Pulp and Paper (BRACELPA), Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) and the Brazilian Agribusiness Association (ABAG). The study was conducted by a group of experts from the Ministry of Agriculture and Embrapa, which cooperated in various stages of preparation. Benefited also from the valuable contribution of people / institutions who analyzed the preliminary results and reported their
8 7 comments, views and ideas on the results of the projections. Observations related to these collaborations were included in the Report, without nominate partners, but the institutions to which they belong. 2. SCENARIOS OF PROJECTIONS The scenario of rising prices should remain in Figure 1 shows the quarterly prices received by U.S. farmers for crops and livestock. Despite the relative price fluctuations, the trend since 2005 has been lifting. Note that the prices of livestock products in 2014 have higher growth rates than crops. Fig. 1 - Prices Received by Farmers in the United States livestock Crops Index / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2014 Source: NASS/USDA, 2014.
9 8 Domestic prices in Brazil have also shown a tendency to increase in some products as shown in Table 1. For some products, such as soybeans, corn, cattle, rice and cotton prices have shown a trend of growth in The prices for these products in 2014 are higher than the historical rates and also the prices of Table 1 Prices received by Farmers in Brazil Product Unit Historical price Wheat R$/t Soybean R$/SC 60kg Corn R$/SC 60kg Bovine Rice R$/SC 50kg Cotton Cent./libra peso Source: Cepea/Usp. Position at 17/04/2014 Brazil expects a record grains harvest in 2014, estimated at million tons. 3. METHODOLOGY The projections cover the period 2013/14 to 2023/24. In general, the basic period of the projections cover 20 years. Taking into account the last year experience, we decided to use, this year as a basic reference period information after Between 1994 and today, as we know, entered a phase of economic stabilization and this allowed a reduction of uncertainty in variables.
10 9 The projections were performed using specific econometric models. They are time series models that have great use in forecasting series. The use of these models in Brazil, for the purpose of this report is unprecedented. We are not aware of published studies in the country who have worked with these models. Three statistical models were used: exponential smoothing, Box- Jenkins (Arima) and State-Space Model. There is a methodological note (Annex 1) which presents the main characteristics of the three models. The projections were performed for 26 agribusiness products: corn, soybeans, wheat, orange, orange juice, chicken, beef, pork, sugar cane, sugar, cotton, soybean meal, soybean oil, fresh milk, beans, rice, potatoes, cassava, tobacco, coffee, cocoa, grape, apple, banana, pulp and paper. The report, however, not discussed all products, but their data are shown in the tables that are part of the Annexes of the study. The choice of the most likely model was made as follows: 1 Consistency of results; 2 International comparisons of data production, consumption, export, import and trade in the country and the world.; 3 last trend of our data; 4 Growth Potential; 5. Consultations with experts. The projections were generally for production, consumption, export, import and planted area. Some tests with productivity of some crops were conducted. The tendency was to choose more conservative models and not those indicated bolder growth rates. This procedure was used for selecting the most selected results. The projections presented in this report are national, where the number of products studied is comprehensive; and regional, where the number of analyzed products is restricted and has specific interest.
11 10 The projections are accompanied by prediction intervals which become wider with time. The greatest breadth of these ranges reflects the greater uncertainty associated with more distant the last year of the series used as the basis of the projection forecasts. 4. RESULTS FORECASTS FOR BRAZIL a. Grains Projections of grains refers to the 15 products surveyed monthly by CONAB as part of their harvest surveys. This set of products is called grains by Conab. As of this update projections already has the data to the eighth survey of harvest (May survey) for the soy complex products, corn and other products, was used for the 2013/2014 harvest data released by Conab( 2014 ): soybean, soybean oil, soybean meal, corn, beans, meat (beef, chicken, pork), and sugar cane. Thus, the data from 2013/2014 are projections Conab. The projections in this report for these products starting in 2014/2015. The estimates of grain production point to a crop of million tons in 2013/14, and a planted area of 56.4 million hectares (Conab 2014). These two variables are the largest that have been achieved in Brazil over the years.
12 11 Table 2 Planted area and Production of Grains Year Production (thousand tons) Planted Area (thousand hectares) Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit 2013/14 193,566-56, /15 199, ,428 58,553 61, /16 205, ,469 59,741 65, /17 211, ,349 60,729 68, /18 217, ,257 61,654 70, /19 223, ,002 62,555 72, /20 228, ,458 63,448 75, /21 234, ,744 64,338 77, /22 240, ,874 65,227 78, /23 246, ,879 66,115 80, /24 252, ,778 67,004 82,624 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with Conab information. * Models used: Space states. Variation % 2013/14 to 2023/24 Production 30.4% Planted Area 17.8%
13 12 Fig. 2 Planted area and Production of Grains Planted Area (thousand hectares) Produc>on (thousand tons) 300, , , , , , ,000 56,861 67,004 50, / / / / / / / / / / /24 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa For 2014/2015 the production expected to be between million and million tons of grains. This range of variation is a safety for the occurrence of changes over which one has or little control such as climate change droughts and rains. Projections for 2023/2024 are a crop around million tonnes, representing an increase of 30.4% over the current crop. At the upper end projection indicates a production of up to million tons in 2023/24. The grain area should increase 17.8% between 2013/14 and 2023/24, from 56.9 million in 2013/2014 to 67.0 million in 2023/2024, which corresponds to an annual increase of 1.6 %.
15 14 b. Cotton lint Cotton production is concentrated in the states of Mato Grosso, Goiás and Bahia, which account for in 2013/ % of the country s production. Mato Grosso has the lead with 56.2% of the national production been folloed by state of Bahia, with 29.8% of the Brazilian production, and Goiás, with 4.9%. COTTON LINT National Production Harvest Year 2013/2014 (Thousand tons) Major producing states % 1, MATO GROSSO GOIÁS BAHIA 29.8 MT BA GO Total 1, Source: Conab - survey june/2014 The projections for cotton lint production indicate 1.67 million tons in 2013/2014 and 2.35 million tons in 2023/24. This expansion corresponds to a growth rate of 3.1% per year over the projection period and an increase of 40.5% in production. Some analysts noted that the projected production is quite high. What has been argued is that with the emergence of new technologies is possible to obtain higher yields. However, what we have checked is that the research has reached a stage where progress in productivity levels is proving slow or stagnant. It was also observed that
16 the projection for 2014/15, 2,143 thousand tons may not occur and that the tendency is to fall short, close to 2013/14 production of 2013/14, 1,672 thousand tons of cotton lint. The consumption of this product in Brazil should grow at an annual rate lower than 1.0% in the next ten years, reaching a total of 939 thousand tons consumed in 2023/24. Exports are also forecast strong growth, 55.4% between 2013/14 a 2023/24 The report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA, 2014) indicates that Brazilian exports between 2013/14 and 2023/24 will more than double, with the country that should increase its exports in the next 10 years. Also according to this source, in a few years Brazil will overtake Central Asia as the third largest source of cotton for export. Brazil has exported to large number of countries, but the main importers in 2013 were South Korea, Indonesia, China, Argentina and Vietnam. 15
17 16 Table 4 Production, Consumption and Export of Cotton Lint (thousand tons) Year Production Consumption Exports Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. 2013/14 1, /15 2,143 2, , /16 1,900 2, , , /17 1,719 2, , , /18 2,099 2, , , /19 2,271 2, , , /20 2,072 2, , , /21 2,135 2, , , /22 2,411 3, , , /23 2,426 3, , , /24 2,350 2, , ,892 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with Conab information. * Models used: Production- Space states. Consumption and exports PRP Variation % 2013/14 to 2023/24 Production 40.5% Consumption 4.4% Exports 55.4%
18 17 Fig. 3 Production, Consumption and Exports of Cotton Lint Produc4on Consump4on thousand tons 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,672 2, / / / / / / / / / / /24 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa c. Rice Although the rice is a common culture in most of the country, most of the production occurs in 5 states - Rio Grande do Sul, with predominantly irrigated rice concentrates 65.8% of production in 2013/14, Santa Catarina, 8.7% of production, Mato Grosso, 5.2%, Maranhão,5.4 % and Tocantins,4.4% of national production. In the Northeast, especially in the state of Ceará rice is irrigated and concentrated on irrigation projects. A small amount is also produced in the states crossed bythe São Francisco river pass, as Bahia, Sergipe, Alagoas and Pernambuco and these areas also receive irrigation.
19 18 MARANHÃO MATO GROSSO TOCANTINS RICE Harvest Year 2013/2014 (Thousand tons) % 5.2 National Production 12, RS Major producing states SC MA MT TO SANTA CATARINA RIO GRANDE DO SUL Total 10, Source: Conab - survey june/2014 The projected production for 2023/24 is 13.6 million tons, and consumption of 12.2 million tons. We projected to increase 11.3% in rice production over the next 10 years. This increased production is expected to occur mainly through the growth of irrigated areas. The projected increase in production is apparently low, but it is equivalent to the projection of consumption over the next 10 years. The relative stabilization of the projected consumption of rice is consistent with the data supply Conab in recent years, around 12 million tons in 2013/14 (Conab, 2014). The estimates for the projection of rice planted area show that the area reduction will occur in the coming years. According to the projections it may fall of 2.4 million hectares in 2013/14 to 1.40 million hectares in 2023/24. According Conab technicians consulted, the area reduction is not likely to occur. The same is shared by researchers at
20 Embrapa Rice and Beans. In Rio Grande do Sul, which is now at 1.0 million hectares should remain in that number or even decrease because rice has had to compete with soybean and corn. The new Brazilian Forest Code limits the incorporation of new areas and the opportunity for Highlands Rice for years to come is in the crop rotation, renovation, rehabilitation or renovation of degraded or even livestock grazing in the transition to agriculture (Santiago, Carlo. Embrapa, 2013). The productivity should be the main variable in the behavior of the product in the coming years. The projection indicates a productivity of 5.5 tonnes per hectare, about 300 kg more than the current productivity of 5.2 tonnes per hectare. But rice is concentrated in areas of Rio Grande do Sul where the current yield is 7.5 tons per hectare (Conab, 2014). The consumption of rice in the coming years is expected to grow at 0.2% per year. According to technicians of Embrapa, the projected consumption seems appropriate to the current reality, even if the calculations of apparent per capita consumption have shown declines in recent years. To change this long-term trend, only if Brazil can develop new ways to use and consumption of rice (made from grains of rice products, which depends on R & D and, especially industry, became interested in the subject, which did not can be seen today). 19
21 20 Table 5 Production, Consumption and Rice Imports (thousand tons) Year Production Consumption Imports Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. 2013/14 12,251-12,000-1, /15 12,703 15,285 12,023 12, , /16 12,807 16,459 12,047 12, , /17 12,910 17,383 12,070 12, , /18 13,014 18,179 12,094 13, , /19 13,118 18,892 12,117 13, , /20 13,222 19,547 12,141 13, , /21 13,326 20,158 12,164 13, , /22 13,429 20,734 12,188 13, , /23 13,533 21,280 12,211 13, , /24 13,637 21,803 12,235 13, ,208 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with CONAB information * Models used: Production, Consumption and Imports, PRP Variation % 2013/14 to 2023/24 Production 11.3% 8.2% Consumption 2.0% Imports -32.9%
22 21 Fig. 4 - Production, Consumption and Rice Imports Produc4on Consump4on Imports thousand tons 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,251 13,637 12,000 12,235 1, / / / / / / / / / / /24 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa d. Bean The geographical distribution of the main producers of beans in the country can be seen on the map. The product is fairly distributed across several states, although the main are Paraná, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso, which currently produce 74.9% of national production. Such as rice, beans are part of the basic diet of Brazilians. It is the product that more has the production, a trend that should continue in the next years production. Imports are always to fill a small gap between production and consumption (Santiago, C. Embrapa, 2013, and Conab, 2014).
23 22 CEARÁ 5.2 National Production 3, Major producing states PR MG BEAN Source: Conab - survey june/2014 Harvest Year 2013/2014 (Thousand tons) % MT BA GO CE Total 2, MATO GROSSO GOIÁS MINAS GERAIS PARANÁ BAHIA 8.1
24 According to technicians of Embrapa Rice and Beans, each year increases the discussions on production focused exclusively on the domestic market.there are some varieties of beans that can be used for export. If this new opportunity consolidates the projection of production will have to be adjusted upward. The variation designed for consumption is 3.6%, which is higher than the production variation. Annual average consumption has been 3.5 million tonnes, requiring small amounts of imports. If confirmed projections of production, should be no need to import beans in the coming years. Over the past five years, Brazil has imported annually between and tonnes of beans (Conab, 2014). The opinions of Conab and Embrapa technicians is that there may be major changes in the beans in the coming years. Productivity is expected to increase from current levels as producers of soybeans and corn are producing beans destined for export to China, India and some African countries. The Northeast, although a large producer of this product has imported beans from other states in periods of drought. Mato Grosso has produced beans for export. Some states such as São Paulo and Minas Gerais has been having problems with regards to pests and diseases that attack crops of this product and so far have struggled to adequately control these attacks. 23
25 24 Table 6 Production, Consumption and Bean Imports (thousand tons) Year Production Consumption Imports Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. 2013/14 3,714-3, /15 3,179 3,835 3,463 3, /16 2,928 3,644 3,475 4, /17 3,268 3,990 3,488 4, /18 3,227 4,066 3,500 4, /19 3,036 3,949 3,513 4, /20 3,164 4,096 3,525 4, /21 3,205 4,193 3,538 4, /22 3,099 4,149 3,550 4, /23 3,129 4,209 3,563 4, /24 3,173 4,292 3,575 4, Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with CONAB information *Models used: To Production, ARMA Models, to Consumption and Imports, PRP Variation % 2013/14 to 2023/24 Production -14.6% Consumption 3.6% Imports 24.0%
26 25 Fig. 5 Production, Consumption and Bean Imports thousand tons 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Produc4on Consump4on Imports 3,714 3,575 3,450 3, / / / / / / / / / / /24 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa e. Corn The national maize production in the country is relatively sparse. The main producing states, Mato Grosso, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul should answer in 2013/14 by 70.0% of national production. But the major producing regions are South, the with 31.5% of the national production and Midwest with 42.0%. In South leadership is of Paraná, and in the Midwest, Mato Grosso. These are currently the main producers of corn in the country. But Minas Gerais, Goias and Rio Grande do Sul Minas also account for an important part of national production as shown on the map
27 26 MT PR CORN National Production Harvest Year 2013/2014 (Thousand tons) Major producing states 77, ,839.3 % , MS 7, MG 6, GO 7, RS 5, MATO GROSSO DO SUL MATO GROSSO 21.6 PARANÁ GOIÁS MINAS GERAIS RIO GRANDE DO SUL BAHIA 4.2 SÃO PAULO SANTA CATARINA SP 3, SC 3, BA 3, Total 70, Source: Conab - survey june/2014 The forecast for corn production in Brazil for 2013/14 is estimated at 77.9 million tonnes (Conab, 2014). For 2014/15 the projected production is between 80.7 and 93.9 million tons as the upper limit of the projection. But the tendency is the production lie nearest the projection. For 2023/24 production is projected million tons. As is well known, in Paraná and Mato Grosso, the biggest producers, soybean areas release space for planting corn. In Mato Grosso it is usual to plant soybeans around 15 September and harvest in January to then start the second maize crop. The limit for this planting is February because the risk of loss due the dry season are great if this period is exceeded. The corn area will increase by 6.4% between 2013/14 and 2023/24, from 15.7 million hectares in 2013/14 to 16.7 million, reaching 22,1 million
28 hectares in 2023/24. There will be no need for new areas to expand this activity as soybean areas release the majority of the areas required by corn. The increase in projected area 6.4% is below the growing rate of the past 10 years, that was 25.5%. But the corn had in recent years high productivity gains resulting in less need for additional areas. The domestic consumption of corn in 2013/14 represents 69.0 % of production should decrease to 62.2 %. Corn exports must pass 21 million tons in 2013/14 to 33.7 million tons in 2023/24. To maintain domestic consumption projected of 64.0 million tons and ensure a reasonable volume level of ending stocks and exports projected, the projected production shoult be of million tons, sufficient to meet the demand in According to technicians working with this culture area should increase more than is being projected and perhaps get closer to its upper limit of growth (See Figure 8) 27
29 28 Table 7 Production Consumption and Corn Export (thousand tons) Year Production Consumption Exports Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. 2013/14 77,887-53,818-21, /15 80,717 93,896 54,876 56,652 22,806 30, /16 83, ,811 55,868 58,892 25,001 35, /17 86, ,583 56,868 60,927 25,910 37, /18 88, ,940 57,899 62,859 26,790 39, /19 91, ,488 58,936 64,675 28,018 41, /20 93, ,947 59,967 66,396 29,192 44, /21 96, ,846 61,000 68,055 30,298 46, /22 98, ,980 62,034 69,665 31,425 48, /23 101, ,617 63,068 71,234 32,565 50, /24 103, ,603 64,102 72,770 33,698 52,237 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with CONAB information * Models used: To production, Consumption and Exports, State Space Models. Variation % 2013/14 to 2023/24 Production 32.4% Consumption 19.1% Exports 60.5%
31 30 Fig. 8 Planted Area of Corn Up limit. ProjecAons 22,149 15,726 16, / / / / / / / / / /23 thousand tons 2023/24 Projection Variation(%) 20013/14 a 2023/24 6,4 to a 40,8% Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
32 31 f. Wheat Wheat production in the country is concentrated in the South, and Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná are the major producers. In 2013/14 harvest, the forecast indicates that Paraná are responsible for 51.9% of the country s production and Rio Grande do Sul by 40.4%. The participation of other states, is of the order of 7.7%. This participation is distributed between Santa Catarina, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul. WHEAT Harvest Year 2013/2014 (Thousand tons) % National Production 7, ,0 Major producing states RS 2, PR 3, Total 6, Source: Conab - survey june/ PARANÁ RIO GRANDE DO SUL Wheat production in 2013/14 crop is being estimated by Conab in 7.4 million tons; this is the largest crop that Brazil already had. The projected production for 2023/24 is 10.0 million tons, and consumption of 14.3 million tons in the same year. The domestic consumption of wheat in the country is expected to grow 17.4% between 2013/14 and 2023/2024.
33 32 The domestic supply will require imports of 5.3 million tonnes in 2023/24. In recent years, imports has been set between 5.8 and 7.0 million tons, and the most frequent import volume has been 6 million tonnes with an outflow in nearly 2.4 billion dollars in Although the increase in wheat production in coming years by more than 30%, Brazil should remain as one of the world s largest importer. The USDA report estimated Brazilian wheat imports of 8 million tons in 2023/24 (USDA, 2014). Table 8 Production, Consumption and Imports of Wheat (thousand tons) Year Production Consumption Imports Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. 2013/14 7,373-12,192-5, /15 7,635 10,519 12,405 13,443 5,478 7, /16 7,897 11,975 12,617 14,086 5,456 7, /17 8,158 13,154 12,830 14,628 5,433 8, /18 8,420 14,188 13,042 15,119 5,411 8, /19 8,682 15,131 13,255 15,577 5,389 9, /20 8,944 16,008 13,468 16,011 5,367 9, /21 9,205 16,836 13,680 16,428 5,345 9, /22 9,467 17,625 13,893 16,830 5,322 10, /23 9,729 18,381 14,105 17,221 5,300 10, /24 9,991 19,111 14,318 17,602 5,278 10,728 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with CONAB information. * Models used: To Production and Consiumptiion, State Space model, and to Export, PRP model. Variation % 2013/14 to 2023/24 Production 35.5% Consumption 17.4% Imports -4.0%
35 34 g. Soybean Complex Soybean Soybean production expected in the country in 2013/14 is 86.1 million tons Soybean production in Brazil is led by the states of Mato Grosso, with 31.4% of national production; Paraná with 17.1%, Rio Grande do Sul with 14.8%, and Goiás, 10.0%. But, as shown on the map, soybean production is also evolving into new areas in Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia, which in 2013/14 accounted for 10.1% of Brazilian production which corresponds to a production of 8.7 million tons of soybean. This is a region located in the center northeast of the country, which has shown strong potential for grain production, called Matopiba. Despite its deficiencies infrastructure, still attractive price land, the climate, the possibility of deploying large areas and favorable relief, have been several factors that have motivated investments in the region. SOYBEAN National Production 86, Major producing states MT 27, PR Harvest Year 2013/2014 (Thousand tons) % 14, MATO GROSSO DO SUL MATO GROSSO 31.4 PARANÁ Goiás 17.1 BAHIA 3.8 RS 12, GO 8, MS 6, BA 3, Total 72, Source: Conab - survey june/ RIO GRANDE DO SUL
36 The projection of soybeans for 2023/24 is million tonnes. This number represents an increase of 36.9% over the production of 2013/14. But it is a percentage that is lower than the growth recorded in the last 10 years in Brazil, which was 64.5% (Conab, 2014). Consumption projections indicate that there must be a large increase in demand for soybean in the international and domestic market. In this market, besides the demand for animal feed, is expected a strong increase in consumption of soybean for bio diesel production, estimated in 2014 by ABIOVE between 10.4 and 12 million tons. This variation depends on the scenario regarding the participation of soybean oil for biodiesel production (ABIOVE matching ). Domestic consumption of soybean is expected to reach 50.4 million tonnes by the end of the projection. Consumption is projected to increase 25.8% by 2023/24. This estimate is close to the growth observed in recent years by Conab of 23.0% within 6 years. There should be an additional consumption of soybean in relation to 2013/14 of around 10.0 million tonnes. As is well known, soybean is an essential component in the manufacture of animal feeds and is gaining importance in human nutrition. The soybean area should increase 10.3 million hectares over the next 10 years, arriving in 2024 to 40.4 million hectares. It is a crop that will more expand area over the next decade. It represents an increase of 34.1% over the area with soybeans in 2013/14. In the new areas of the Center Northeast of Brazil, comprising the region of Matopiba, the soybean area should expand greatly according to Conab technicians. This information goes in the same direction as the results obtained in this work. In the present work, the area of grains in this region should expand by 16.3% over the next 10 years. This equates to reach the region area of 8.4 million hectares, which at its upper limit can reach 10.9 million hectares. In Paraná state, area can grow in the coming years taking areas of other cultures. In Mato Grosso expansion should occur over degraded pastures and new areas, but mostly the first areas. But the trend in Brazil is that the expansion of the area occurs mainly on natural pasture lands. Exports of soybeans designed for 2023/2024 is 65.2 million tonnes, Representing an increase of 19.9 million tonnes for the quantity exported by Brazil in 2013/14. 35
37 36 The expected change in 2024 relative to 2013/14 is an increase in volume of soybeans exports in the order of 44.0%. The soybean export projections in this report are very similar to USDA projections, released in February this year. They design 66.5 million of exports for soybeans at the end of the next decade. This estimate is almost the same as that of this report, 65.2 million tons in 2024.
38 37 Table 9 Production, Consumption and Soybean Export (thousand tons) Year Production Consumption Exports Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. 2013/14 86,052-40,080-45, /15 89,831 98,215 41,233 45,698 47,292 52, /16 93, ,825 42,358 47,988 49,286 57, /17 96, ,549 43,391 49,739 51,281 60, /18 99, ,376 44,401 51,612 53,276 64, /19 102, ,921 45,414 53,329 55,270 67, /20 105, ,309 46,417 54,969 57,265 70, /21 108, ,624 47,420 56,583 59,260 73, /22 111, ,846 48,423 58,152 61,254 76, /23 114, ,999 49,425 59,688 63,249 79, /24 117, ,097 50,427 61,200 65,244 82,563 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with CONAB information. * Models used: To Production and Consiumptiion, State Space model, and to Export, PRP model. Variation % 2013/14 to 2023/24 Production 36.9% Consumption 25.8% Exports 44.0%
40 39 Fig. 12 Soybean Export Projec4on Up limit. thousand tons 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, , / / / / / / / / / /23 82,563 65, /24 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa The expansion of soybean production in the country will give by the combination of area expansion and productivity. As production increases planned over the next 10 years is 36.9%, the expansion of the area is 34.1%. In recent years soybean productivity yield has remained stable at 2.7 tons per hectare, and that number is projected to be 3.0 tonnes per hectare in the next 10 years. Soybean should expand through a combination of frontier expansion in regions where there is still available land, pasture land occupation and substituting orther crops where there is no land available for incorporation. But the trend in Brazil is that the expansion occurs mainly on natural pasture lands. Figure 13 illustrates the projected area expansion in sugar cane and soybean, which are two activities that compete for the area in Brazil. Together these two activities in the coming years should presentan expansion area of 12.6 million hectares, 10.3 million hectares of soybean and 2.3 million hectares of cane sugar. The other crops should have little variation in area in the coming
41 40 years. However, it is estimated that expansion should occur in areas of great productive potential, as areas of cerrado understood in what is now called Matopiba for understanding land located in the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia. Mato Grosso will lose strenghts in this process of expansion of new areas, mainly due to the price of land in this state that are more than double the price of crop land in the states of Matopiba (FGV-FGVDados). Because these new ventures regions include areas of great extent, the price of land is a decisive factor. Fig. 13 Area of Soybean and Sugar Cane Soybean Sugar cane** , , 30,105 8, , , 2013/ / / / / / / / / / /24 thousand hectare Soybean- Variation ,1 % Sugar cane - Variation ,2 % Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa * Area with soybean and cane will grouth 12.6 million hectare **refers to sugar - cane intended to production of alcohol and sugar.
42 41 Meal and Soybean Oil Meal and soybean oil showed moderate dynamism of production in the coming years. The soybean meal production should increase by 25.1% and 25.9% oil. These percentages are slightly higher than what has been observed in the last decade for both products. However, consumption of meal will have stronger growth than soybean oil, 35.2% and 23.1%, respectively. Exports of meal should increase 15.6% between 2014 and 2024 and 18.4% oil. Exports are presented in the coming years more dynamic domestic consumption in the case of soybean oil.
43 42 Table 10 Production, Consumption and Soybean Meal Export (thousand tons) Year Production Consumption Exports Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. 2013/14 28,105-14,100-13, /15 28,676 31,078 14,529 15,234 14,166 15, /16 30,079 33,173 15,046 16,085 14,389 17, /17 30,534 33,935 15,548 16,793 14,715 18, /18 31,041 34,918 16,019 17,463 14,783 18, /19 31,910 36,218 16,538 18,181 14,939 19, /20 32,562 37,158 17,049 18,851 15,128 20, /21 33,135 38,043 17,543 19,492 15,257 20, /22 33,856 39,082 18,050 20,143 15,394 21, /23 34,539 40,031 18,559 20,783 15,557 21, /24 35,168 40,919 19,061 21,407 15,701 22,422 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with CONAB information * Models used: To Production, Consumption and Export, Space state models. Variation % 2013/14 to 2023/24 Production 25.1% Consumption 35.2% Exports 15.6%
44 43 Table 11 Production, Consumption and Soybean Oil Export (thousand tons) Year Production Consumption Exports Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. 2013/14 7,118-5,500-1, /15 7,353 8,125 5,566 5,911 1,530 2, /16 7,510 8,481 5,642 6,225 1,562 2, /17 7,706 8,827 5,755 6,564 1,598 2, /18 7,886 9,164 5,880 6,913 1,622 2, /19 8,066 9,472 6,016 7,258 1,631 3, /20 8,247 9,773 6,161 7,597 1,637 3, /21 8,425 10,064 6,309 7,928 1,637 3, /22 8,604 10,347 6,461 8,250 1,635 3, /23 8,783 10,624 6,616 8,563 1,631 3, /24 8,961 10,896 6,772 8,869 1,626 4,036 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with CONAB information * Models Used: To Production, Consumption and Exports, State- Space Models. Variation % 2013/14 to 2023/24 Production 25.9% Consumption 23.1% Exports 18.4%
46 The domestic consumption of soybean oil forecast for 2023/24 is estimated at 6.8 million tons. Represents around 75.6% of projected production. Most of the oil is intended for human consumption and another part has been used to produce Biodiesel. According to ABIOVE in 2014, the average use of soybean oil for biodiesel should be between 2.0 and 2.3 million tons. This represents between 28.0 and 32.3% of soybean oil in 2013/14 harvest. For soybean meal, in the next decade, about 54.0% should be directed to domestic consumption, and 44.6% for exports. We analyzed the data sent by ABIOVE (2014), at our request, in the form of comments to these projections, and it generally converge toward the results presented in this report. 45
47 46 h. Coffee MG COFFEE Produção Nacional Harvest Year 2013/2014 (Thousand tons) Major producing states 2, ,511.8 % MINAS GERAIS ESPIRITO SANTO 26.0 ES Total 2, Source: IBGE - survey - june/2014 Coffee production has been showing unusual behavior in2014. Though a period called the High, the expected production this year is supposed to be lower than last year. This crop has a cycle called bienalidade where years there has been a high production and low production the next. Due to weather problems that occurred earlier this year affecting the main producing regions, the harvest expected in 2014 should be equal to or less than last year. Estimates for 2014 indicate a harvest of 46.9 million 60-kg bags, while last year was 49.2 million bags (DCAF-CONAB-ABIC-MDI / SECEX-OIC-CEPEA / ESALQ, BM & F, 2014 )
48 The projections show that the related production in 2023/24 should rise 30.6% compared to 2013/14. This change is equivalent to an annual growth rate of 2.5%. Consumption is estimated to grow 28.9% by 2023/24, the result of an annual growth rate of 2.4%. The consumption in Brazil has grown to an average annual rate of 4.8% according to the International Coffee Organization, OIC, while the world average has been 2.7% per year. The latest estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture indicate an average annual rate of per capita consumption in Brazil of 5.7% per year in the period (MAPA / DCAF, ABIC, Conab, 2014). Coffee exports are projected for 2023/24 at 40.0 million bags of 60 kg. This projected volume represents an increase of 24.0% compared to the exports of 2013/14, representing an average annual rate of 2.2%. It is expected that the country will continue as the world s largest producer and leading exporter as well as keep the usual buyers and valued partners in 129 countries in U.S., Germany, Japan and Italy imported 62.7% of the volume exported by Brazil in
49 48 Table 12 Production, Consumption and Exports of Coffee (million bags) Year Production Consumption Exports Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. 2013/ / / / / / / / / / / Source: AGE/Mapa e and SGE/Embrapa with Mapa/SPAE/DCAF and CONAB Information * Models Used: To production, consumption and Exports, State- Space Models. Variation % 2013/14 to 2023/24 Production 30.6% Consumption 28.9% Exports 24.0% i. Milk Milk was considered a product that has high growth potential. The production is expected to grow at an annual rate between 2.6% and 3.4%. This corresponds to a production of 44.7 billion liters of raw milk at the end of the period of the projections, 29.8% higher than the production year 2013/14.
50 49 According to technicians of Embrapa Dairy Cattle, the projected growth rates for production should be slightly above the projected in this report. According to them the milk production in Brazil rose more than 4.0% per year in recent years. Tabela 13 - Production, Consumption and Exports of Milk (million liters) Year Production Consumption Imports Exports Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. 2013/14 34,408-36,298-1, /15 36,322 37,897-37,310 40,069-1,047 2, /16 36,473 38,885 38,302 41,810 1,037 3, /17 38,377 41,016 39,290 43,420 1,028 3, /18 38,523 41,826 40,278 44,948 1,018 3, /19 40,425 43,927 41,265 46,419 1,008 4, , /20 40,569 44,623 42,253 47, , , /21 42,470 46,696 43,240 49, , , /22 42,613 47,315 44,228 50, , , /23 44,514 49,368 45,215 51, , , /24 44,657 49,933 46,203 53, , ,391 Source: AGE/Mapa e and SGE/Embrapa with IBGE/MDIC/Embrapa Gado de Leite information. * Models used: To Production and Consumption, ARMA model, to Imports and Exports, PRP models. Variation % 2013/14 to 2023/24 Production 29.8% Consumption 27.3% Imports -9.2% Exports 34.7%
51 50 Fig. 16 Milk Production Projec4on Up limit. thousand tons 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 34,408 49,933 44,657 10, / / / / / / / / / / /24 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa Fig. 17 Production and Consumption of Milk. Produc4on Consump4on 50,000 46,203 thousand tons 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 36,298 34,408 44, / / / / / / / / / / /24 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa
53 52 Consumption is expected to grow at an annual rate between 2.4 and 3.3%, thus following the production of the country, but putting the consuption at a level slightly above the national production, it will require some import. j. Sugar The estimates obtained by AGE and SGE for Brazilian sugar production indicate an average annual growth rate of 3.3% in the 2013/2014 to 2023/2024 period. This rate should lead to a production of 52.9 million tons in Such production corresponds to an increase of 39.7% compared to 2013/14. These projections may be affected if the current situation is maintened where the prospects of the sugar and alcohol sector are not favorable. Investments have not been made in new units, several production units have paralyzed its activities over the past 3 seasons and many companies are indebted (Mapa / Agroenergia, 2014).
54 53 Table14 Production, Consumption and Sugar Exports (thousand tons) Year Production Consumption Exports Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. Projection Up limit. 2013/14 37,878-12,233-27, /15 40,330 44,074 12,261 13,640 27,824 32, /16 41,265 45,774 12,694 14,300 29,207 34, /17 42,937 48,304 12,963 14,881 30,352 37, /18 44,264 50,305 13,299 15,442 31,577 39, /19 45,749 52,415 13,607 15,970 32,775 41, /20 47,163 54,394 13,927 16,485 33,982 43, /21 48,608 56,365 14,242 16,983 35,186 44, /22 50,040 58,288 14,559 17,471 36,391 46, /23 51,478 60,190 14,875 17,949 37,596 48, /24 52,913 62,066 15,192 18,419 38,801 50,378 Source: AGE/Mapa and SGE/Embrapa with Mapa /SPAE/DCAA; Mapa /SRI and CONAB. information * Models used: To Production and Exports, Space State model, and to Consumption, ARMA model. Variation % 2013/14 to 2023/24 Production 39.7% Consumption 24.2% Exports 42.9% The projected rates for exports and domestic consumption for the next 10 years are, respectively, 3.7% and 2.3% per year. For exports, the forecast for 2023/2024 is a volume of 38.8 million tonnes.
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