Research Plan - ED_I_Ltg_4: Lighting Impact Evaluation and Market Research Studies

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1 Research Plan - ED_I_Ltg_4: Lighting Impact Evaluation and Market Research Studies 1 Introduction 1.1 Overview This document presents the research plan for impact evaluation and market research studies regarding nonresidential upstream and all residential lighting measures included in California s investor-owned utilities (IOU) residential energy-efficiency programs. This research plan addresses nonresidential upstream and all residential lighting measures included in the IOUs lighting programs. 1 DNV GL will closely coordinate this work with other relevant studies. This plan presents the over-arching goals and objectives of work order (WO) ED_I_Ltg_4 ( Lighting Impact Evaluation and Market Research Studies) as well as details regarding the scope, budget, and timeline associated with this effort. This draft version of the plan currently represents collaboration between the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) Energy Division (ED) and DNV GL staff along with input from the CPUC ED s ex ante team and California s investor-owned utilities (IOU). When finalized, this document may also reflect feedback from the general public. At the end of the document (in chapter 0), we provide complete references for other sources cited herein. 1.2 Objectives The over-arching objectives addressed by this research plan (paraphrased from the June Joint IOU-ED EM&V Plan [EM&V Plan ]) include: Collecting impact evaluation data on selected lighting measures for the IOU lighting programs (and providing results as rapidly as possible); and Continuing current efforts to monitor and profile market changes in the lighting sector. The impact evaluation will verify and validate the IOU-reported energy savings and peak demand reduction claims for upstream and residential downstream lighting measures and 1 Work order ED_I_Com_1 (Non-Residential Downstream Impact Evaluation) will address nonresidential, nonupstream lighting impact evaluation issues. Another work order (TBD) will address nonresidential, nonupstream lighting market research issues. NonRes Contract Team 1 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

2 programs through a combination of pass-through approaches (relying on information gathered in previous evaluation cycles) and primary data collection. The market studies will provide updates regarding key market characteristics as compared to prior evaluation results based on primary data collection and mining of existing evaluation data. These activities will provide feedback to the IOUs regarding program performance, to report on the outcomes of long-term market transformation efforts, and to provide results that will support future improvements to IOU program design. To support and enable these efforts, the evaluation team will prepare and present timely and accurate results to the CPUC and/or IOUs. 1.3 Key Research Questions More specifically, the EM&V Plan provides an overview of key research questions based on issues deemed to be relevant late in 2012 or during the first half of Given the passage of time and the Decision Adopting Efficiency Savings and Performance Incentive (ESPI) Mechanism (D ) adopted by the Commission in September, 2013, research priorities have evolved somewhat. The March 2014 Work Order Proposal for Lighting Impact Evaluation and Market Research Studies further refines these questions, and Table 1 below represents the final set of research questions to be addressed by this research plan. The table also includes a high-level summary of the data sources that will be used to address each question. NonRes Contract Team 2 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

3 Consumer Phone Surveys Supplier Interviews Lamp Choice Model Shelf Survey Intercept Survey 2012 CLASS WO28 Report WO13 Market Status Report Research Plan ED_I_Ltg_4 Table 1. Research Questions Data Source New Data Collection Secondary Data Research Question What are the ex post savings results? How has the composition of replacement lamps on retail store shelves changed since 2012? What do lamp suppliers consider to be the most prominent changes in the residential lighting market during 2013 and 2014 (including emerging technologies/ applications)? What are the implications of these changes for consumers and other market actors? What is the appropriate baseline for residential upstream LED lamps? What is the freeridership level for residential upstream LED lamps? What is the freeridership level for residential upstream CFLs? Of the CFLs/LEDs purchased in 2013 and 2014, how many of these were not installed and will never be installed? What percentage of LED lamp users report early removal or failure of LED lamps in residential applications? What are the primary reasons for removal (in addition to failure)? How are consumers using LED night lights in residential applications? Are LED nightlights replacing other night lights (and if so what technologies)? What are the hours of operation?* ** * Note that the market update study will explore these issues. The impact evaluation study will not focus on night lights. ** While the consumer CATI will be the primary source of information with regard to this research question, the supplier interviews will also address reasons for early removal of LED lamps and LED lamp failures. NonRes Contract Team 3 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

4 1.4 Studies Included in This Plan This plan includes the two studies described above an impact evaluation study and a market update study. Impact Evaluation The impact evaluation addresses the following key research questions (from Table 1 above): What are the ex post savings results? What is the appropriate baseline for residential upstream LED lamps? What is the freeridership level for residential upstream LED lamps? What is the freeridership level for residential upstream CFLs? Of the CFLs/LEDs purchased in 2013 and 2014, how many of these were not installed and will never be installed? Table 2 links the data sources listed above to the impact evaluation by measure group (CFLs and LED lamps) and impact evaluation parameter. As described in the March 2014 WO proposal, the impact evaluation WO will not focus on LED night lights because the IOUs have provided relatively few incentives for these measures. 2 2 The market research component of this research plan will address LED night lights to a limited extent; see subsequent sections for details. NonRes Contract Team 4 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

5 Table 2: Impact Evaluation Data Sources by Measure Group and Parameter Measure Group CFLs LED Lamps Impact Evaluation Category Parameter Data Source Quantity of measures Pass-through (verification rate) from shipped 2012 EM&V results Adjustment to Quantity Gross Savings Net-to-Gross (NTG) Assessment Adjustment to Quantity Gross Savings NTG Assessment Installation rate Leakage Residential/Nonresidential split Delta watts Hours of use Peak coincidence factor Freeridership Quantity of measures shipped Installation rate Leakage Residential/Nonresidential split Delta watts Hours of use Peak coincidence factor Freeridership Consumer CATI Pass-through from EM&V results Pass-through from EM&V results Consumer CATI In-Store Shopper Intercept Surveys Tracking Data Mine data from 2012 CLASS (WO21) Mine data from 2012 CLASS (WO21) to tailor existing CFL HOU model to highwattage CFLs (based on distribution of these lamps by room type) Pass-through from EM&V results for all remaining CFL measures Mine data from 2012 CLASS (WO21) as described above (coincidence factor tied to room type) Pass-through from EM&V results for all remaining CFL measures In-Depth Interviews with Suppliers Lamp Choice Model Pass-through (verification rate) from EM&V results Consumer CATI Pass-through from EM&V results Pass-through from EM&V results Consumer CATI In-Store Shopper Intercept Surveys Tracking data Mine data from 2012 CLASS (WO21) Mine data from 2012 CLASS (WO21) to tailor existing CFL HOU model to LED lamps (based on distribution of LED lamps by room type versus CFLs by room type) Mine data from 2012 CLASS (WO21) as described above (coincidence factor tied to room type) In-Depth Interviews with Suppliers Lamp Choice Model NonRes Contract Team 5 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

6 Market Update Study The same research methods described above will be utilized to address the following key research questions (from Table 1 above): How has the composition of replacement lamps on retail store shelves changed since 2012? What do lamp suppliers consider to be the most prominent changes in the residential lighting market during 2013 and 2014 (including emerging technologies/ applications)? What are the implications of these changes for consumers and other market actors? What percentage of LED lamp users report early removal or failure of LED lamps in residential applications? What are the primary reasons for removal (in addition to failure)? How are consumers using LED night lights in residential applications? Are LED nightlights replacing other night lights (and if so what technologies)? What are the hours of operation? Table 3 links these methods to key research topics. Table 3: Proposed Market Research Data Sources by Research Topic Research Topic Shelf composition Stocking volume by retail channel Market changes and their implications for manufacturers, retailers, consumers, and others LED night light use and hours of operation Retention/satisfaction issues with LEDs failing or being removed in residential settings Data Source Lighting Retail Store Shelf Surveys Lighting Retail Store Shelf Surveys In-Depth Interviews with Suppliers (and other market experts) Consumer CATI Consumer CATI Consumer CATI 2 Relevant Programs and Measures For the residential and upstream lighting impact evaluation and market research studies, evaluation efforts will focus on the upstream measures discounted through the IOUs primary lighting programs. Table 4 shows the percentage of the Primary Lighting Programs in terms of the overall portfolio savings claims. In the program period, upstream lighting measures represented approximately one-third of total portfolio-level gross kwh savings for each of the three IOUs. SCE s Primary Lighting Program accounts for 25 percent and 31 percent of the gross kw and kwh savings claims, respectively, and 21 percent and 26 percent of net kw and kwh, similar to levels from previous program cycles. Both PG&E and SDG&E reduced the savings coming from their Primary Lighting programs between and such that approximately 3 percent of total portfolio-level gross kwh savings claims NonRes Contract Team 6 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

7 for PG&E and approximately 10 percent for SDG&E came from Primary Lighting Programs during the period. Table 4. Upstream Lighting Program Savings Claims as Percent of Total IOU Portfolio Savings (Q Q3 2014) Upstream Lighting Programs Percent of Total Portfolio Savings Claims Gross kw Gross kwh Net kw Net kwh PG&E Primary Lighting Program 3% 3% 3% 4% SCE Primary Lighting Program 25% 31% 21% 26% SDG&E Primary Lighting Program 8% 10% 10% 13% Table 5 shows the quantities of upstream lighting measures that were discounted through the above IOU programs in 2013 and the first three quarters of Similar to the program cycle, the majority of upstream lighting discounts went to three CFL measure groups; Basic (spiral/twister under 30 watts), A-lamp, and Reflector. These three measure groups account for almost 60 percent of all discounted measures. However, in the program years, there has been a marked increase in the number of LED lamps discounted through the upstream programs, now accounting for over 10 percent of discounted measures. SCE also increased their emphasis on high wattage CFLs over 30 watts. NonRes Contract Team 7 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

8 Table 5. Quantity of Upstream Measures Discounted by California IOUs (Shipments; Q Q3 2014) Lighting Measure Group Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) IOU Southern California Edison (SCE) San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) Overall (Statewide) Indoor CFL >30 Watts 163,432 3,550,494 6,566 3,720,492 Indoor CFL 3 Way 13, , ,278 Indoor CFL A-Lamp 579,144 1,646, ,273 2,641,917 Indoor CFL Basic 1,104, ,416 1,641,666 3,465,187 Indoor CFL Dimming 0 3, ,535 Indoor CFL Fixture 6, ,733 Indoor CFL Globe 0 174,180 40, ,045 Indoor CFL Other 100 4, ,459 Indoor CFL Reflector 513,198 1,880, ,085 2,789,542 Indoor LED Fixture 209, , ,086 Indoor LED Lamp 168, , , ,813 Indoor LED Reflector 167, ,818 84, ,447 Grand Total 2,952,542 8,609,054 2,802,125 14,363,721 3 Deliverables The evaluation of nonresidential and residential upstream lighting programs includes at least five deliverables, which we describe in more detail below Uncertain Measures Memo. This memo will address the 2013 impacts for uncertain measures 3 to support the CPUC s ESPI process. The memo will largely passthrough the parameter values from the impact evaluation with the exception of an update to the delta watts calculation (as described in section 5.2 below) Uncertain Measures Memo. This memo will address the 2014 impacts for uncertain measures (again, to support the CPUC s ESPI process). It is expected to follow the same approach as the 2013 Uncertain Measures Memo except that it will include updated values for impact evaluation parameters as available. (For example, we expect to complete the 2015 consumer CATI in advance of this memo, and will thus calculate savings estimates based on the installation rates for upstream CFLs and LED lamps yielded by the survey results.) 3 For a complete list of uncertain measures, please refer to Attachment 3 (List of Deemed Measures Subject to Ex Post Evaluation for Program Year 2013) in the CPUC ED s Decision Adopting Efficiency Savings and Performance Incentive (ESPI) Mechanism (D ). NonRes Contract Team 8 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

9 3. Interim Impact Evaluation Report. This report will provide preliminary information in 2913 and 2014 gross and net savings as available during the summer of This interim report is expected to follow the same format as the Final Impact Evaluation Report (see below) with placeholders for information not yet available at the time of the interim report s publication. 4. Final Impact Evaluation Report. This report will address the final impact evaluation of 2013 and 2014 gross and net savings (see section 5 for more detail) Market Update Report. This report will provide an update to a subset of the information included the 2014 California Residential Replacement Lamp Market Status Report (see section 6 for more detail) Data collection instruments. We will provide copies of all data collection instruments used in support of the deliverables above including the consumer telephone surveys, supplier interviews, shelf surveys, and intercept surveys to the CPUC in MS Word format. 7. Data, data dictionaries, formats files, and analysis files. We will provide the raw data, final datasets, and data dictionaries for the consumer telephone surveys and shelf surveys to the CPUC in MS Excel format. We will also provide variable format files and any relevant analyses files to the CPUC in SAS format. 4 Data Sources The deliverables described in section 0above draw upon the data sources summarized below. 4.1 Primary Data Sources The work order ED_I_Ltg_4 ( Lighting Impact Evaluation and Market Research Studies) relies upon five primary data collection activities. Table 6 provides an overview of four of these activities along with the sample source, sample size, and timing for each activity. Subsequent sub-sections provide further details regarding each of these four activities as well as the Lamp Choice Model, which also serves as a source of primary data for the research and evaluation efforts addressed in this plan. 4 DNV GL, 2014b. NonRes Contract Team 9 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

10 Table 6. Summary of Primary Data Collection Activities and Sample Sizes Data Source Sample Source Sample Size Timing Consumer CATI IOU customer database 1,000 Q Supplier IDI IOU contacts; contact list from manufacturer data collection efforts 30 Q Shelf Survey Current retail store lists; IOU tracking data 200 Q4 2014/Q Intercept Survey Current retail store lists; IOU tracking data Roughly 800 Q4 2014/Q In-store Shopper Intercept and Shelf Surveys As part of WO ED_I_Ltg_4, in late 2014 and early 2015, the evaluation team conducted in-store surveys with lamp shoppers as well as full retail inventories of retail replacement lamp stock in California retail stores that sell replacement lamps. At the CPUC s direction, the evaluation team completed this work in advance of preparing this research plan to avoid losing the opportunity to begin collecting these data before the end of The goal of the intercepts is to support analyses of NTG and related customer choice issues, and the shelf surveys enable continued tracking of key residential replacement lamp market indicators (such as lamp availability, diversity, and pricing). Table 7 shows the number of completed surveys of each type by retail channel during the winter data collection period. Table 7. Number of Completed Shelf Surveys and Shopper Intercept Surveys (with Lamp Purchasers) by Retail Channel, Winter Shopper Intercept Retail Channel Shelf Surveys Surveys (Lamp Purchasers) Discount Drug Grocery 28 9 Hardware Home Improvement Mass Merchandise Wholesale Club Total Computer-Aided Telephone Interviews (CATI) with Consumers We will conduct telephone surveys with residential electric customers of PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E (including recent lamp purchasers and non-purchasers) to support continued monitoring of purchase, installation, and storage rates for CFLs as well as for LED lamps. We will also investigate consumer use of LED night lights. NonRes Contract Team 10 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

11 In-Depth Interviews (IDI) with Lighting Supplier Representatives We will conduct in-depth telephone interviews (IDI) with representatives of suppliers that sell products discounted by the IOUs upstream programs (e.g., representatives of lighting manufacturers, retail stores that sell lighting products) to elicit perspectives on freeridership (i.e., the percentage of IOU-discounted lighting products that would have been sold in the absence of the IOUs programs). These results will support estimation of NTG for each retail channel. The IOUs have expressed interest in understanding how CFL and LED sales or shipments trends in California compare to the rest of the U.S., and how suppliers expect these to compare in the future. As such, the Supplier IDI will obtain current and forward-looking qualitative details regarding relative lamp sales/shipments in these two regions. Lamp Choice Model For of the impact evaluation, a lamp choice model (LCM) was estimated as part of the NTG analysis. In the impact evaluation, we plan to re-run the LCM estimation process with the updated data collected in the latest round the in-store shopper intercept surveys and the retail shelf surveys. The LCM predicts how consumers choose between competing lamp products. The scope of the model covers lamps that are sold through major retail channels, use common lighting technologies (for example, traditional incandescent, EISA-compliant halogen, CFL, and LED), and are in common shapes (for example, A-Lamp, twister, reflector/flood, and globe). Key model features include: Market share predictions for impact evaluation: The model predicts changes in market shares as a response to price changes such as those introduced by incentive programs. This gives the model the ability to estimate a counter-factual baseline for impact evaluation. Heterogeneous price sensitivities: Not all consumers have the same price sensitivity. The model design reflects that price sensitivities vary by consumer household income and whether the consumer is making an impulse or planned purchase. Retail channel differences: The model design recognizes that consumers have price sensitivities and choice sets that vary by retail channel. Nested logit model structure: The model design utilizes a standard methodology for predicting consumer choice over a set of discrete alternatives. The LCM is designed to tell a clear and consistent story of market share changes due to program incentives, and will be used help to determine NTG ratios for the impact evaluation. NonRes Contract Team 11 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

12 4.2 Secondary Data Sources ED_I_Ltg_4 also relies on two classes of secondary data, including program tracking data and data from evaluation, measurement, and verification (EM&V) efforts. Program Tracking Data Each of the four IOUs will upload program tracking data onto a centralized server to be downloaded by the evaluation team. The team will analyze, clean, re-categorize, reformat, and merge these separate datasets into one program tracking database. The tracking data will provide details regarding the quantity of lighting measures shipped as well as details regarding the manufacturers and retailers involved in the programs, the latter of which will provide the sample frame for the in-depth lighting supplier interviews (described in more detail below). Data from Other EM&V Efforts We will mine data from EM&V evaluation and market research studies to support the overall evaluation efforts described herein for work order ED_I_Ltg_4 as well as relevant studies from the period, as available. These data sources may include: Residential/Advanced/Upstream Lighting Impact Evaluation (WO28). 5 This study included all lighting measures associated with upstream delivery mechanisms and all downstream lighting measures targeted at the residential sector. The impact evaluation focused on high-impact measures (HIM) that individually accounted for at least 1 percent of the IOUs portfolio-level kwh or kw claims. Four measure groups were identified as HIMs and included within the scope of the evaluation (CFL A-lamp, CFL basic, CFL globes, and CFL reflector). Several of the impact evaluation parameters developed as part of WO28 for the program cycle will be passed through and utilized in the current evaluation. 6 California Residential Replacement Lamp Market Status Report: Upstream Lighting Program and Market Activities in California through 2013 (WO13). 7 This provides details regarding the status of the residential replacement lamp market in California as of 2013, including supply- and demand-side market activities as well as Upstream Lighting Program (ULP) activities. The report draws heavily from research conducted in support of WO28 and WO21 (California Lighting and Appliance Saturation Study). The 2015 Market Update study will update many of the data points included in this WO13 report (see section 6 of this document for more detail). 5 DNV GL, 2014c. 6 We discuss the pass-through parameters in more detail in Section 5 below. 7 DNV GL, 2014b. NonRes Contract Team 12 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

13 California Lighting and Appliance Saturation Study Commercial Saturation Study (CLASS; WO21). 8 The 2012 CLASS study updates and augments saturation and efficiency characteristics from previous CLASS studies that were conducted in 2005 and 2000 for use in understanding future energy savings potential and past accomplishments in the residential sector. The 2012 CLASS study conducted onsite observations on a sample of 1,987 single-family, multi-family and mobile home residences with individually-metered electric accounts across the service territories of PG&E, SCE and SDG&E. The impact evaluation will rely on CLASS to update the delta watts, HOU, and peak coincidence factors for CFLs and LED lamps (refer to Table 2 above). Ongoing EM&V Efforts managed by the IOUs. For example, in support of program evaluation efforts, the IOUs are currently managing an LED market characterization study, a study to determine ULP market share, and other research efforts. We will review and incorporate information from these studies as possible and warranted by study timing and results. 5 Impact Evaluation Approach There are three primary objectives for the impact evaluation: 1. Verify the quantity of IOU-discounted upstream lighting products that were shipped, sold and installed by residential and nonresidential customers within the PG&E, SCE and SDG&E service territories during the program period; 2. Estimate the gross energy and peak coincident demand impacts from these measures; and 3. Determine an appropriate net-to-gross ratio for estimating net energy and demand impacts. As such, there are three primary components to the evaluation approach: 1. Adjustments to quantity of measures rebated; 2. Development of gross savings inputs; and 3. Development of net savings inputs. This section presents a discussion of the methodology for each of the three main components of the evaluation. 8 DNV GL, 2014a. NonRes Contract Team 13 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

14 5.1 Quantity of Measures Adjustments This section discusses three adjustments that will be made to the quantity of rebated measures claimed by the IOUs as having been sold to IOU residential and nonresidential customers during These adjustments include: Program invoice/application verification to determine the quantity of IOU-discounted products shipped by participating manufacturers to retailers; Percent of IOU-discounted products purchased by non-iou customers (i.e., leakage); and Percent of IOU-discounted products purchased by residential v. nonresidential customers. Invoice/Application Verification The residential and upstream lighting impact evaluation report 9 describes the results of the evaluation team s verification of the quantity of IOU-discounted products shipped by participating manufacturers to retailers based on their review of a sample of program invoices and applications. The evaluation estimated an ultimate verification rate of 100 percent for all IOUs and retail channels. The impact evaluation will not update the verification rate and instead pass through the value (100%). This verification rate will apply for both CFLs and LED lamps in the impact evaluation as there is no reason to believe that the IOUs internal verification procedures have declined in rigor or quality since Leakage Ultimately, due to the lack of strong data supporting leakage, no adjustment to quantity was applied for the evaluation. The same leakage estimate (0%) will be passed through to the impact evaluation of the programs. 9 DNV GL, 2014c. NonRes Contract Team 14 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

15 Residential v. Nonresidential To estimate the portion of upstream CFLs that go to nonresidential applications, the evaluation relied on the results of two onsite surveys conducted during the period the California Lighting and Appliance Saturation Survey (CLASS) 10 and the Commercial Market Share Tracking Study (CMST). 11 These efforts yielded the residential versus nonresidential shares of total upstream lighting program measures shown in Table 8. These estimates will be passed through to the impact evaluation of the programs for CFLs. For LED lamps, will use same split in because there aren't enough sample points in the CMST data to justify any difference from these estimates for CFLs versus LED lamps in Table 8. Share of Residential Versus Nonresidential Upstream Lighting Program Measures by IOU, IOU Share of Upstream Lighting Program Measures Non-Residential Residential PG&E 7% 93% SCE 6% 94% SDG&E 6% 94% Overall 7% 93% 5.2 Gross Impacts Analysis This section describes the methodology for analyzing gross impacts. There are six elements to these analyses: 1. Installation rate 2. Average daily hours-of-use (HOU) 3. Average percent of installed measures operating at peak (coincidence factor, or CF) 4. Wattage displaced by IOU-discounted products (delta watts) 5. HVAC Interactive effects (IE) 6. Unit energy savings (UES) estimates (kwh/year and peak kw) 10 DNV GL, 2014a. 11 Itron, Inc., NonRes Contract Team 15 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

16 Installation Rate In the impact evaluation report, installation rate will be defined as all upstream lamps that were purchased that will ultimately be installed. The impact evaluation applied an installation rate of 97 percent to all upstream CFLs. The 97 percent installation rate was based on telephone surveys with consumers and previous installation rate research that suggested CFLs purchased by residential customers all get installed within four year time range of purchase, except for 3 percent that never get installed. 12 A key research question for the impact evaluation report will be to verify and possibly update the percentage of lamps that are never installed. The 2015 consumer CATI will yield an updated installation rate for upstream CFLs and an installation rate for LED lamps. Hours-of-Use (HOU) Estimates of the average daily HOU for residential lighting will be derived from the analysis of logger data collected through the Residential Lighting Metering Study, and applied to the residential lighting inventories collected as part of the CLASS. For CFL measures that were evaluated in , the HOU estimates from the impact evaluation will be applied in the impact evaluation. For measures not evaluated in , such as high-wattage spiral CFLs (greater than 30 watts) and A-lamp or Reflector LED lamps, new HOU estimates will be produced by applying the CFL HOU model to the distributions of these measures in the CLASS residential lighting inventories. While the research team acknowledges that the logger data from the evaluation is reaching the end of its shelf life., the estimates of HOU that can be derived from applying the logger data to the 2012 CLASS lighting inventory is the best available data for producing such estimates. 13 Peak Coincidence Factor (CF) Peak CF represents the average percent of time that a lamp is used during the peak period. The peak periods vary by climate zone. Similar to the HOU estimates, the estimates for CF will be derived from the logger data collected for the evaluation and applied to the lighting inventories collected during CLASS. For CFL measures that were evaluated in , the 12 KEMA, Inc. and Cadmus Group, The CPUC acknowledges the need to update the metering study information. However, given that the study plans (and associated budgets) do not include an in-home metering study, the data collected during the period remains the best available data. As such, we will rely on this data to support HOU estimation for NonRes Contract Team 16 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

17 peak CFL estimates from the impact evaluation will be applied to the 2013 and 2014 impact evaluation. For measures not evaluated in , such as high-wattage (greater than 30 watt) spiral CFLs and A-lamp or Reflector LED lamps, new peak CF estimates will be produced by applying the CFL HOU model to the distributions of these measures in the CLASS residential lighting inventories. Displaced Wattage (Delta Watts) Delta watts will be calculated as the difference between the average wattage of rebated lamps during each program year for 2013 and 2014 and the average wattage of baseline lamps used in similar applications. The baseline wattages will be calculated from the CLASS residential lighting inventory. For CFLs, the baseline will be considered incandescent lamps used in similar applications. CFL measures evaluated in the program cycle will have the baseline wattage passed through, as there is no update to the CLASS lighting inventory. For new CFL measures being evaluated, such as high wattage CFLs, an appropriate baseline will be determined based on the average wattage of incandescent lamps in applications where a high wattage CFL is most likely to be installed. For LED lamps, the baseline will be considered to include incandescent lamps, halogen lamps, and CFLs. So, for example the baseline for reflector LED lamps, would be the average wattage of installed incandescent reflector lamps, halogen reflector lamps, and CFL reflectors in the CLASS inventory. Replacement wattage will be the average wattages of rebated measures, calculated from the program tracking data. The delta watt parameter value is the difference between baseline and replacement wattage. The delta watt parameter will be calculated based on the data from the CLASS lighting inventory (baseline wattage) and from the IOU program tracking data (replacement wattage). The research will also include questions in the consumer CATI survey and the shopper intercept surveys that ask about what types of lamps are being replaced by IOU-discounted lamps. The purpose of this research is to better understand how consumers are using IOU-discounted lamps, and at this time is not going to be incorporated into the final delta watts calculation. However, depending on the results of the research, that could change. As the saturation of CFLs in California has increased, CFLs replacing existing CFLs is becoming more of a concern for the baseline assumptions of upstream CFLs. For this evaluation, the baseline technology is incandescent lamps, with CFL to CFL replacement being captured in the NTG analysis. NonRes Contract Team 17 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

18 HVAC Interactive Effects The Database for Energy Efficient Resources 14 (DEER) includes savings factors for kwh, kw and therms savings for indoor CFL measures. HVAC interactive effects (HVAC IE) are developed for internal load changing measures such as interior lighting and appliances and other plug loads measures. These effects can alter the "direct" electric and gas impacts for those measures due to resulting changes in heating and cooling HVAC system energy use. These savings factors are applied to the direct impacts as a multiplier for both kwh and kw and factor of therm/kwh for therm impacts. Table 9 shows the multipliers used for the upstream CFL measures evaluated in the WO028 report. DEER does not currently distinguish between different CFL measures, therefore the same HVAC IE factors were applied to all high-impact measures (HIMs). The factors shown in Table 9 are broken down by Investor Owned Utility (IOU) and building type. The residential and commercial factors are the weighted average of all existing building types for residential or commercial buildings with a given IOU. The HVAC IE factors are taken from DEER Table 9. CFL HVAC interactive Effects Factors by IOU Building Type Residential Commercial CFL HVAC Interactive Effect Adjustment IOU PG&E SCE SDG&E kwh kw Therms kwh kw Therms Sponsored by the California Energy Commission and CPUC, the Database for Energy Efficient Resources (DEER) is designed to provide well-documented estimates of energy and peak demand savings values, measure costs, and effective useful life (EUL) all with one data source. For more information, visit NonRes Contract Team 18 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

19 Unit Energy Savings Calculation Unit energy savings (UES) estimates are the average gross energy (kwh per year), peak demand (kw), and gas (therm) impacts per measure. UES calculations will be computed as follows for measures rebated through the upstream programs: UES (kwh/year): IR p x HOU p x ΔW p /1000 x IE p, where: o IR p = installation rate for IOU-discounted product p o HOU p = annual average hours of use for IOU-discounted product p o ΔW p = average displaced wattage for IOU-discounted product p o IE p = DEER kwh HVAC Interactive Effects for IOU-discounted product p UES (peak kw): IR p x CF p x ΔW p /1000 x IE p, where: o IR p = installation rate for IOU-discounted product p o CF p = average percent on at peak for IOU-discounted product p o ΔW p = average displaced wattage for IOU-discounted product p o IE p = DEER kw HVAC Interactive Effects for IOU-discounted product p UES (therm/year): IR p x HOU p x ΔW p /1000 x IE p, where: o IR p = installation rate for IOU-discounted product p o HOU p = annual average hours of use for IOU-discounted product p o ΔW p = average displaced wattage for IOU-discounted product p o IE p = DEER therm HVAC Interactive Effects for IOU-discounted product p 5.3 Net Savings Analysis Net savings impacts will be determined by applying net-to-gross (NTG) ratios (which reflect the portion of IOU-discounted lighting products that would not have been sold, purchased or installed had it not been for the program) to the estimates of gross savings for the upstream programs. Due to the upstream nature and focus of the programs being evaluated, net impacts are difficult to calculate. It is difficult to identify and distinguish downstream participants, making it challenging (if not impossible) to apply consumer self-report methods of assessing net impacts. NonRes Contract Team 19 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

20 The approach to estimate net impacts for upstream programs will examine the program s influence from two sides: Demand: Changes in consumer demand calculated with the lamp choice model Supply: Changes in the supply chain calculated from in-depth interviews with manufacturers and suppliers We will execute these two approaches and combine their results in a systematic way to generate a final NTG estimate. The NTG estimates from each method will combined through a framework similar to the approach used in the impact evaluation. NTG ratios will be estimated at the measure, retail channel and IOU level. Depending on the method some estimates will be aggregated to just the retail channel or IOU level. These estimates will have weights applied to them based on expert judgment from evaluators, CPUC staff, CPUC and advisors, with input from IOU staff, to develop a single estimate for each measure at the IOU level. This estimate will be applied to the final program tracking data to yield net program impacts as well as impacts at the technology level (for CFLs and LED lamps). 6 Market Update Study Approach The 2015 Market Update study will focus on updating relevant information in the 2014 report titled California Residential Replacement Lamp Market Status Report: Upstream Lighting Program and Market Activities in California Through " We will perform these updates based on new data collection and analyses conducted in 2013 and 2014, including: Consumer CATI Supplier IDI Shelf survey Intercept survey Lamp choice model We will update the information provided in the Executive Summary, Introduction, and Data Sources chapters of the 2014 report (chapters 0 through 2) based on relevant updates to other sections of the report. We will review chapter 3 (Market Context) and update the information therein as necessary, although we do not predict any significant updates to the chapter. We will update the information included in several additional sections of the report as shown in 16 DNV GL, 2014b. NonRes Contract Team 20 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

21 Table 10 below (including sections of chapters 4, 5 and 8). We are unable to update chapter 6 (Market Penetration) and chapter 7 (Remaining Installation Potential for Energy-Efficient Lamps) as these rely upon data from in-home lighting inventories that were conducted in 2012 and have not been repeated since then. In addition to these updates, the 2015 Market Update study will address two new research issues: The percentage of LED lamp users who report early removal or failure of LED lamps and (among this group) the primary reasons for lamp removal (in addition to failure); and Consumers use of LED night lights, including whether LED nightlights are replacing other night lights (and if so, what technologies) as well as general information regarding the hours of operation for these technologies. As described in section 1.4 above (under the Market Update Study sub-heading), we will address both of these issues in our consumer telephone surveys, and describe them in the Market Demand chapter of the report. NonRes Contract Team 21 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

22 Table 10. Overview of Topics to be Updated in 2015 Market Update Study Chapter Topic Details Source Compare to Overview of manufacturers/retail chains participants where participating in the ULP possible Supplier Supplier perspectives on the ULP and supply-side interviews - market barriers 4. Supply Side 5. Demand Side 8. Projected Lamp Technology Choices under Changed Regulatory and Market Conditions Supplier predictions regarding future lamp sales - Summary of lamp availability in 2013 and 2014 (in terms of the percentage of stores stocking specific lamp types and the percentage of total lamps comprised by various lamp types) Summary of lamp diversity in 2013 and 2014 (in terms of the average number of lamp models stocked for various lamp types) compared to 2012 Summary of lamp pricing in 2013 and 2014 (in terms of the average price per lamp and price range for various lamp types) compared to Lamp awareness and purchases by technology CFL awareness, purchases, storage, and disposal Lamp purchasing decisions, including reasons for purchasing or not purchasing CFLs/LEDs and planned vs. impulse purchases Lamp installation intentions and technologies to be replaced with new lamps Compare to 2012 results where possible Compare to 2012 results where possible Compare to 2012 results where possible Compare to results where possible Compare to prior results where possible Compare to 2012 results where possible Compare to 2012 results where possible Overview of lamp choice model - Scenario analyses by retail channel - Shelf surveys Consumer CATI Shopper Intercepts Lamp choice model 7 Timeline Table 11 shows the timeline for lighting impact evaluation and market research activities addressed in this research plan as well as for tasks related to project administration, management, and coordination. NonRes Contract Team 22 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

23 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Research Plan ED_I_Ltg_4 Table 11. Timeline for ED_I_Ltg_4: Lighting Impact Evaluation and Market Research Studies Timing Task Name PM and Coordination Develop WO Develop Research Plan IOU PM Interviews Shelf Survey Data Upload Shelf Survey Memo Consumer CATI Supplier IDI Shelf Survey Intercept Survey Lamp Choice Model NTG Framework Tracking Data Analysis 2013 Uncertain Measure Impact Memo 2014 Uncertain Measure Impact Memo Interim Impact Memo Impact Evaluation Report 2015 Market Update Report = deliverable NonRes Contract Team 23 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

24 8 Budget Table 12 shows the timeline for lighting impact evaluation and market research activities addressed in this research plan as well as for tasks related to project administration, management, and coordination. Table 12. Budget for ED_I_Ltg_4: Lighting Impact Evaluation and Market Research Studies Task Budget PM and Coordination $131,000 Develop WO $12,000 Develop Research Plan $62,000 IOU PM Interviews $15,000 Shelf Survey Data Upload $18,000 Shelf Survey Memo $32,000 Consumer CATI $125,000 Supplier IDI $50,000 Shelf Survey $225,000 Intercept Survey $150,000 Lamp Choice Model $70,000 NTG Framework $30,000 Tracking Data Analysis $50, Uncertain Measure Impact Memo $60, Uncertain Measure Impact Memo $60,000 Interim Impact Memo $60, Impact Evaluation Report $125, Market Update Report $125,000 ED_I_Ltg_4 Contingency $25,000 Total $1,425,000 9 References CPUC, ED, Decision Adopting Efficiency Savings and Performance Incentive (ESPI) Mechanism (D ). September 5, DNV GL, 2014a. Final Report - WO21: Residential On-site Study: California Lighting and Appliance Saturation Study (CLASS 2012). Prepared for the CPUC, ED. CALMAC Study ID: CPU November 24, NonRes Contract Team 24 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

25 , 2014b. California Residential Replacement Lamp Market Status Report: Upstream Lighting Program and Market Activities in California through Prepared for the CPUC, ED. CALMAC Study ID CPU September 10, 2014., 2014c. Final Report: Impact Evaluation of California IOU Residential, Advanced, and Upstream Lighting Programs. Prepared for the CPUC, ED. August 4, KEMA, Inc. and Cadmus Group. Final Evaluation Report: Upstream Lighting Program, Volume 1. CALMAC Study ID CPU : Prepared for the CPUC, ED. CALMAC Study ID CPU February 8, NonRes Contract Team 25 Research Plan (ED_I_Ltg_4)

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