RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market

Transcription

1 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market September 2010 Prepared for Joanne Tyzzer, Darren Jones, Brian Davies North Staffordshire Regeneration Partnership Renew North Staffordshire Stoke City Council Arc4 contact David Cumberland / Ross Tolmie-Thomson Arc4 Ltd Beehive Mill Jersey Street Ancoats Manchester M4 6JG Tel +44 (0) david.cumberland@arc4.co.uk ross.tolmie-thomson@arc4.co.uk

2 arc 4 Beehive Mill Jersey Street Ancoats Manchester M4 6JG T: F: contact@arc4.co.uk Website: Contents arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

3 Section 1.0 Report Overview 4 Introduction 4 Section 2.0 Methodology 7 Current Executive Housing Market Future Executive Housing Market Research Framework Section 3.0 Executive Housing Market Definition 12 Section 4.0 Executive Housing Market Assessment 14 Current Executive Housing Market Current high-end property market context Wider Housing Reference Area Section 5.0 Strategic Policy context for housing delivery 25 Section 6.0 Demand for Executive Housing 31 Household income and ACORN profiles Demographic and population projections Changes in employment and incomes Section 7.0 Primary Fieldwork 38 Estate agent testimonies Focus group attitudes and aspirations Developer perceptions Section 8.0 Current supply of new build executive housing 48 Section 9.0 Developing an executive housing market 50 Section 10.0 Conclusions Including recommendations Appendices 65 arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

4 Section 1 Report overview 1.1 Introduction Arc4 Ltd. has been commissioned by RENEW and NSRP to undertake an assessment of the Executive Housing Market (EHM) in the North Staffordshire regeneration Partnership (NSRP) area, including the local authorities of Stoke, Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands. The assessment framework is split into two distinctive areas: a review of the current EHM in terms of housing supply and demand profiles, then secondly an assessment of the future EHM in terms of market demand and developer potential. Stakeholder and consumer consultation has been an important component of this research, which ensures a wide range of views and expertise is captured in the research Under the aegis of the NSRP Business Plan, there is a priority within the housing and regeneration frameworks to diversify the stock profile. Limited supply of high value executive housing assets (properties in the higher Council Tax bands G and H) is weakening the housing offer. Testing the housing markets appetite for increasing the supply of properties in tax bands E to H will feature heavily in the assessment process In summary this research Provides a definition of an executive housing market and the attributes of an exclusive housing product Explores the size and profiles of the current executive housing market in North Staffordshire Provides material on future executive housing aspirations based on market testing of the demand group and housing agents Reviews the potential for future executive housing delivery across the district based on developer and local planning authority perspectives There is a requirement to produce an evidence-based, focussed review of opportunities and identify issues pertaining to the suitability of developing executive housing on land both owned and identified with potential for this supply type The adopted Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent Core Spatial Strategy outlines that in order to achieve the strategic aims both regionally and sub-regionally, substantial restructuring of the employment and residential offer in North Staffordshire is required. Although the Regional Spatial Strategy has been abolished, Stoke City Council are still working to the same housing growth numbers as before, since they have been included within the Core Strategy and were arrived at through thorough research of the evidence base The latest available indicators suggest that the existing provision for the executive market is limited in North Staffordshire, specifically so within the city of Stoke-on-Trent. As outlined by the RENEW North Staffordshire Regeneration Partnership Business Plan , the sub region has a constrained supply of high-end market housing and the imbalance of housing supply is closely allied to the socio-economic profile and under performance of the area in retaining and attracting economically independent households. arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

5 1.1.7 The latest Strategic Housing Market Assessment identified Stoke-on-Trent as a unique market in continuing to suffer population loss, in particular to neighbouring authorities Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands (SHMA 2008). A contributory factor is the limited residential offer across the spectrum of the housing market, one of the main SHMA recommendations identifying the requirement for more executive housing in the housing sectors shown to be disproportionately dominated by terraced dwellings One of the principal objectives of the RENEW North Staffordshire Regeneration Partnership Business Plan in recognising the limited housing choice, is to provide a diversified residential offer. Providing the right type of dwellings, in the right location and environment will be key to addressing and reversing the trend of net population loss. An important factor for competitiveness in the knowledge economy is the extent to which places have a skilled, creative and entrepreneurial workforce. Employers will choose to locate partly on the basis of where this workforce is located and therefore the residential offer must be closely aligned with the aspirations of economically independent households We note that top end of the market executive housing can also have a further significant impact on the economy. The evidence suggests that residents of executive housing include a high proportion of entrepreneurs, with a consequent high level of business start-ups. This leads to establishment of new employment opportunities, often in locations convenient to the home of the entrepreneur One of the NSRP Business Plan priorities, in providing a portfolio of high quality/specification detached houses or luxury apartments, seeks to meet the aspirations of existing and future residents on higher incomes, both in the interests of greater social inclusivity and to remove a barrier to the pursuit of economic prosperity. A broader housing choice is essential to accommodate the changing aspirations of the resident population and to retain graduates and attract new economically active households into the area Current housing supply throughout areas of Stoke-on-Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands, reflect an earlier pattern of economic structure and development that does not meet the current, nor future needs, for a balance of dwellings types and choice and the need to develop mixed communities Much of the offer within the constituent authorities competes for skilled workforce and economically independent households with a limited residential offer. Issues of deprivation, worklessness and social exclusion are inextricably linked with poor quality housing and less desirable environments. Therefore, an improved residential offer and quality of place is essential to the creation of mixed and balanced communities and fundamental to improving the economic performance of the area (RENEW NSPR BP) Creating sustainable, mixed communities coupled with high design quality and place making is a key part of the Government s approach to housing and planning policy going forward. Providing a quality residential offer is not about gentrification alone, but about creating quality places through new development and interventions in existing neighbourhoods to provide a range of house types and tenures. It is the aim of RENEW and the NSRP that opportunities are identified to address the need for provision of a broader mix of housing supply across the intervention areas in the sub region This research provides an intelligence report examining the issues around the provision of executive housing and developing a meaningful definition framed within a North Staffordshire context. The report provides an examination of both the local and regional housing market (in arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

6 terms of depth of the potential market) and the planning supply context for the provision of executive housing. The report focuses in particular at recent experience of developing executive housing framed in the context of the local potential market demand, competing sites, migration, travel to work patterns, sales performance and land/site supply Our perspective is holistic. We do not see development and the supply of housing in isolation. As such, we have examined the objectives of recent spatial planning policy at both the (now abolished) Regional Spatial Strategy and emerging Local Development Framework levels. This research paper looks to test the potential demand and requirement for larger executive developments within North Staffordshire Much has changed in the national and regional arenas since this report was commissioned, including the election of the Coalition Government and its abolition of whole swathes of regional governance including the Regional Development Agencies, Regional Assemblies and planned regional Leaders Boards, together with Regional Spatial Strategies. Further clarity around the new Local Economic Partnerships and the extent of their remit is awaited. arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

7 Section 2 Methodology 2.1 Methodology The research methodology has been mainly desk-based, with primary input from discussions with the client on previous work and telephone interviews with local agents and relevant development stakeholders with specific delivery experience within this market. These include officers from the local authority planning departments, developers (both specialist and mainstream), estate and land agents. Linkages have also been drawn from feedback received from the focus group work undertaken as part of the wider contract brief Stage I Strategic policy context for housing delivery in North Staffordshire. Note that in this report, unless specifically stated otherwise, the description North Staffordshire is used to refer to the three Local Authorities that comprise the NSRP. Consolidation and review of literature outlining strategic planning policy for housing delivery in North Staffordshire, draws on the Local Development Frameworks, the (now abolished) Regional Economic, Housing and Spatial Strategies and findings of the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA). This is supplemented by a critique of the underlying vision for residential development in North Staffordshire. It is important that this analysis is provided in the context of the wider economic climate and the likely impact upon development of any kind going forward. A shift in market conditions and economic fundamentals has called into question the established development framework that operated previously, shown to be dependent upon the availability of credit for development and mortgage liquidity. Development across all market tenures now operates in a constrained marketplace, therefore it is important that the research draws clear links to the economic model update work for North Staffordshire being undertaken simultaneously by Experian. Consideration of the wider economic environment will provide an indication of potential quantum and viability for selected sites Stage II - Demand side trends Market research of the local and sub-regional household profiles and secondary data analysis to establish a target market definition, the potential pool of demand and its share of the overall market. We have analysed population and household projections, migration and travel-to-work patterns, including identifying key local employers identified as sources of potential target market for this housing, demographic and household change and the findings of the latest Strategic Housing Market Assessment. This provides the context on the current and future demand profile for proposed executive housing development in North Staffordshire Stage III Supply side trends and review of the experience and impact of executive housing development elsewhere In this stage we examine historic completion rates by type of property (including new build and conversions), outlining the relatively narrow supply within North Staffordshire in recent years compared to neighbouring locations. This analysis includes discussions with the arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

8 respective planning departments to identify sources of existing property stock with potential for delivering executive type housing. We undertook an examination of future supply to ascertain competing areas and developments through the SHLAA process, National Land Use Database schedule, Five Year Land Supply and current outstanding permissions data. Desk-based, case study review of experience and impact of executive housing development in comparable housing markets. We appreciate that a comparable market to North Staffordshire may not exist explicitly, however the key success factors can be identified from executive housing development case studies and an analysis provided of the factors to be in place to underpin development of this type in the North Staffordshire market. This element primarily aims to consolidate understanding and provision of a workable definition of executive housing in the North Staffordshire context. We have undertaken previous analysis of executive housing case studies and are well aware that this does not necessarily include volume-built, higher-end detached market housing. As noted above, provided the right location and environment, executive housing may include; Mix of bespoke detached properties at low density ie, Wynard, Stockton-on-Tees Individual architect designed properties ie, Tutti Frutti Urban Splash, Manchester Self build developments ie, Ashley Vale, Bristol Environmentally sustainable developments ie, Accordia, Cambridge; Upton, Northampton; Great Bow Yard, Somerset New build period townhouses ie, The Square, York Stage IV Site locations and agent interviews Analysis of the strategic potential sites is supplemented with local agent interviews examining the aspirations of those purchasing executive housing and areas of search for such housing to understand the depth of the potential market. 2.2 Current Executive Housing Market The first phase of the assessment investigates the extent of housing in the North Staffordshire sub-region, which fits the broad definition of an Executive product. Several secondary data sources were used to identify the extent of high property values and high incomes. This has included: Council Tax banding information for 2008 (based on property valuations at 1991); Land registry property sale values; Household Income 2008 (Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings) The following variables are identified; the proportions of properties in Band E to H, property values k, 500k- 750k, 750+ and household incomes of 900+pw and 1k+pw. Where data is available, results have been analysed on a number of geographical scales: Address level arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

9 Postcode sector Lower SOAs Wards This information has been triangulated to produce a series of maps and tables identifying the spatial extent of the current executive housing markets and the numbers in the market The second phase of the assessment has involved identifying households from the ASHE data 2008 who command sufficient incomes and access to equity or savings, therefore form the primary target market for property deemed to be of executive housing standard. Detailed analysis of the selected market profile looks at the current property and household characteristics The third phase of the assessment was to define distinctive market typologies through a process of qualitative and quantitative methods (see definition of executive housing below). This process brings together selective property and household characteristics to define executive housing products and demand behaviour A number of variables were used to develop market typologies. A series of profiles or short case studies have been developed to illustrate these typologies with the context of North Staffordshire and its surrounding area. A number of case study examples from a range of national perspectives are provided in section Future Executive Housing Market It is essential that the proposed market typologies are rigorously tested with housing practitioners, who have a practical understanding of high value housing markets. A series of interviews, market area observations, and discussions with a range of stakeholders has taken place to test the emerging findings Aspirations for future development from the housing supplier and planning control perspectives state the requirements necessary for future executive housing. 2.4 Research Framework Our research approach is structured as follows and has been split into sections for ease of access. Section Topic Background review Stage 1 Review of existing plans and strategies Strategic policy context for housing delivery in Stoke-on-Trent Examination of latest regional and local planning strategy; Examination of latest regional and local economic strategy; Adopted Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastleunder-Lyme Core Strategy; Staffordshire Moorlands Submission Core Strategy. RSS, The Regional Economic Strategy, NSRP Business Plan ; SHMA, Stokeon-Trent AMR, Newcastle under Lyme AMR, Staffordshire Moorlands AMR, arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

10 RENEW AMR 2008/09. Local housing market overview What is the existing position? Where are the high value dwellings located? Executive housing supply in the planning pipeline ie, benefit of detailed consent? How do the constituent local authorities stand in valid comparison within NSHMA and to adjacent markets? Where do current high earners live? Correlation between the two Overview of local market trends and differentiation of local housing markets. Land Registry house price indices; Council Tax Register; Mapping correlation of properties and earners at ward and / or output area geographies; Latest NSHMA; ONS neighbourhoods; Supply pipeline data; Travel to work data comparison of resident and workplace based incomes; Income data by Lower Super Output Area / ward; Focus group feedback; Estate agent feedback; Council planning departments feedback. Land Registry; New build market data. Local economic drivers. Demand analysis Forecasts for current and future population and household change; Drivers and dynamics of population and household change; Migration and travel to work trends; Socio-economic profiling; What type of households? Neighbourhood statistics analysis of socio-economic composition; Demand for executive housing, fuelled by demographic changes; Where are the gaps between demand and supply?; Growth of working age population; Key areas of economic growth now and forecast; Potential constraints unique to the local market, lifestyle offer etc. Population and household projections; Migration statistics into and within the Stoke Housing Market area and the sub-region; GDP statistics; Local economic drivers; ACORN profiling; Neighbourhood Statistics and NOMIS; 2001 Census, ONS; Population estimates, ONS; Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings; GIS mapping analysis. Focus group feedback Supply analysis What has been built? An overview of historic supply in the local authority market in terms of size, number and spatial Latest development supply pipeline statistics; arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

11 location of executive housing; What is being built? A review of planned schemes and those under construction in respect of outstanding planning permissions, SHLAA and National Land Use Database; Locally determined growth strategy - supply targets; What reasonable quantum of executive housing should the local authorities be aiming for? What is the gap between existing demand and supply? Latest development capacity data; Developer feedback Local authority planning feedback. Where do the three local authorities want to be? Current gap analysis between demand and supply profile; Visions to be supplied by the respective local authorities Experian, ASHE; SHMA Council feedback and emerging LDF documents arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

12 Section 3 Executive Housing Market Definition 3.1 Introduction Housing referred to as executive is a vague market product and has eluded definitive classification due to the many forms, densities, locations and contexts within which property referred to as executive can be found. Indeed the term is often used, somewhat erroneously, to uplift the image of developments that would otherwise be classified as volume built housing. The term executive may be allocated to new build developments in one location due to relative exclusivity in the context of resident household incomes, that may not be regarded as distinct developments in more affluent locations. Furthermore the term can be used dependent upon consumer perception and aspiration, in reference to new build bespoke properties, gated communities or period properties The term executive equates to the most desirable and commonly, most expensive property in a particular location. Executive markets are locations that generally operate on a regional basis, across regional housing markets due to their exclusivity, the operation of such not confined to local authority boundaries. Purchasers of executive housing will often travel over large distances to employment locations, due to the nature of the desired character of residence In broad terms, executive housing is acknowledged as, High quality accommodation in low density, suited to the needs and aspirations of higher income households The first aspect of this research is to establish a meaningful definition of executive housing in the North Staffordshire market context. An executive housing market is dependent upon the components of supply and demand. In these terms, a housing supply profile based on property prices, property sizes, dwelling types, interior specifications, outside space and location. A housing demand profile based on household income, equity and savings, household type, household size, household needs, length of occupancy, access to occupancy and business ownership Characteristics of an executive housing market would also include a clear linkage to the national / international market, beneficial or at least low taxation, in terms of the location choice of industry and employment opportunities most conducive to business leaders, excellent environmental conditions, a contiguous executive or prime property market and associated lifestyle offer (discussed in further detail below) An executive housing market can be defined in a number of ways combining the property value, but including a suite of elements such as price, density, design, location and specification, in order to establish a meaningful definition. In addition to a price level, this may include for example factors such as low density (eg, approximating five units per acre), with large floor space in excess of 2,000sqft, offering facilities such as 4+ bedrooms, double garages and ensuite bedrooms or luxury apartments in desirable locations. They can include bespoke design and self-build and are generally in owner occupation. 1 Tomaney, J. Bradley, D. (2006). The economic role of mobile professional and creative workers and their housing residential preferences: evidence from North East England. Nathanial Lichfield and Partners. Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies, University of Newcastle upon Tyne. Newcastle. arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

13 3.1.7 It is appreciated that in many markets and normal market conditions, property regarded as executive housing is likely to attract prices in excess 450,000. However a certain level of discount has been factored into our analysis for Stoke, in terms of both council tax banding and property pricing. This has been appropriate in order to capture the top end of the market for comparable properties with those in the adjacent local authorities of North Staffordshire. This approach has been informed by analysis of transaction levels across North Staffordshire and interviews with local agents active across the area, listed in appendix F. Our analysis therefore includes council tax banding E H, rather than just G H, to include the top end of the residential markets in each LA In addition our analysis of the depth of the top end market in North Staffordshire has identified disparities in achieved property values. Analysis of the depth of this market represented by transaction activity identified a number of price bands As we outline in section four below there are a significantly higher number of transactions recorded in Staffordshire Moorlands and Newcastle-under-Lyme for properties in excess of 400,000 compared to Stoke. The justification for adopting a 400,000 threshold for upper market housing is two-fold. Namely this property value reflects the council tax discount for Stoke encompassing a comparable upper-end market within bands E-H. Secondly the feedback from considerable focus group work with local agents and residents identified this level at which properties were considered to be upper market in Stoke Therefore the value ranges we have identified and will use in this assessment of current high-end property transactions include; K range covers the very high end property stock in Stoke and high end property in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands; K range covers the exceptional and exclusive properties in Stoke and the very high end properties in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands; 750K+ covers the exceptional and exclusive properties in Newcastle-under- Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands Below we examine the current upper end housing offer demand in terms of both transaction levels and housing type. This will inform the recommendations as to the housing typologies and characteristics comprising a conducive Quality of Place and residential offer in our case study section. An explanation of the relationship between these aspects is discussed in section 9. arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

14 Section 4 Executive Housing Market Assessment Current Executive Housing Market As Table 4.1 illustrates the buying activity of detached properties in the three local authorities of North Staffordshire over the last three years highlights properties commanding prices in excess of 750,000 and 1M in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands. In comparison the top end of the Stoke market is represented by a market high of 0.9% during 2008 of between 500, , 000 (Land Registry, Q2 2009) The analysis has focussed upon detached property transactions due to nominal levels of activity in the higher price categories for other property types such as flats, semi-detached and terraced properties. We appreciate that in certain markets the executive market has the potential to include properties of these types, such as prime location flats and townhouses. We identify the current demand levels for these alternative housing types in the higher price bands in section 4.2 below. Table 4.1: Buying activity detached properties North Staffordshire to date Stoke Nos % Nos % Nos % Under 100K % % 7 5.5% K % % % % % % % % % % % 3 2.3% % % 1 0.8% % 5 0.9% 0 0.0% Total % % % Newcastle-under-Lyme Nos % Nos % Nos % Under 100K 7 1.4% 4 1.2% 4 3.8% K % % % % % % % % % % % 9 8.5% % 7 2.1% 4 3.8% % % 1 0.9% 750-1M 1 0.2% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1M % 1 0.9% Total % % % Staff Moors Nos % Nos % Nos % Under 100K 9 1.2% 6 1.8% 4 3.5% K % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 4 3.5% % 6 1.8% 3 2.7% arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

15 750-1M 1 0.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1M % 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Total % % % Source: Land Registry Q As Table 4.1 illustrates, at the height of the property market, the top 4% of transactions in Stoke were recorded above 400,000, characterising an exclusive executive housing market. Comparable levels of transactions in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands are recorded between the ,000 price categories, with a greater representation of transactions recorded in these local authorities in the uppermost price bands. Table 4.2: Percentage of properties recorded within respective council tax bands Council tax bands LA A B C D E F G H Total E-H F-H Stoke-on Trent Newcastleunder-Lyme Staffordshire Moorlands Total Source: Council tax records RENEW Table 4.2 illustrates the respective distribution of properties across North Staffordshire by council tax banding. Reflecting the transaction activity in Table 4.1 both Newcastle-under- Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands record higher levels of stock within the higher tax bands compared to Stoke. A full breakdown of properties by CT band and ward is provided in Appendix A and B. This data has been compared to respective household income data by ward to identify the most conducive locations for potential executive housing delivery in terms of a target market Council tax banding classifies properties from band A (properties with the lowest tax rating) to band H (highest tax rating) in accordance with the properties value at the time of assessment. A summary of the distribution of council tax band classifications, across the North Staffordshire housing market, is shown in Table 4.2 and a full breakdown by ward in Appendix A. However in terms of the target bands of E H, a total of 2,273 properties were identified within these bands in Stoke, compared to more than double at 5,107 properties within Newcastle-under-Lyme and a further 6,649 properties within Staffordshire Moorlands The disparities become even greater when considering the bands F H, with 617 properties in Stoke compared to a more substantial 2,573 in Newcastle-under-Lyme and 2,613 within Staffordshire Moorlands. Properties within council tax bands F H account for just 0.6% of all properties within Stoke, compared to 4.8% of properties in Newcastle-under-Lyme and 6.2% in Staffordshire Moorlands. There is a justifiable requirement to factor in a banding discount in terms of analysis in regards top-end of the respective markets. The transaction and council tax data above indicates that high value housing offers an insignificant contribution to the Stoke housing market in particular In terms of ward distribution of higher value properties as illustrated in full in Appendix A and B, Table 4.3 identifies the top ten Stoke wards with the highest representation of properties arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

16 in the uppermost council tax bands. The three wards of Trentham and Hanford (30%), Meir Park and Sandon (16.9%) and Abbey Green (11.2%) contain almost two-thirds of all Stoke properties within bands E H, at 58.1%. Table 4.3: Top ten Stoke wards recording highest valued properties council tax bands E - H Ward name E F G H E-H Total (%) F-H Total (%) Abbey Green Blurton Chell and Packmoor East Valley Hartshill and Penkhull Longton South Meir Park and Sandon Northwood and Birches Head Norton and Bradeley Trentham and Hanford Source: RENEW In terms of ward distribution of higher value properties as illustrated in full in Appendix A and B, Table 4.4 identifies the top ten Newcastle-under-Lyme wards with the highest representation of properties in the uppermost council tax bands. The three wards of Loggerheads and Whitmore (25.2%), Westlands (16.6%) and Keele (15.7%) contain almost half of all Newcastle-under-Lyme properties within bands E H, at 47.5%. Table 4.4: Top ten Newcastle-under-Lyme wards recording highest valued properties council tax bands E H Ward name E F G H E-H F-H Audley and Bignall End Halmerend Keele Loggerheads and Whitmore Madeley May Bank Newchapel Seabridge Thistleberry Westlands Source: RENEW In terms of ward distribution of higher value properties as illustrated in full in Appendix A and B, Table 4.5 identifies the top ten Staffordshire Moorlands wards with the highest representation of properties in the uppermost council tax bands. The three wards of Horton (12.1%), Dane (10.5%) and Bagnall and Stanley (9.0%) contain over one-third of all Staffordshire Moorlands properties within bands E H, at 31.6%. As indicated in Appendix B map B3, the distribution of higher valued properties is more widespread across the authority in comparison to the pockets of higher value stock in Newcastle-under-Lyme and in far fewer proportions in Stoke. Table 4.5: Top ten Staffordshire Moorlands wards recording highest valued properties council tax bands E H Ward name E F G H E-H F-H Alton arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

17 Bagnall and Stanley Biddulph North Caverswall Cheddleton Dane Hamps Valley Horton Ipstones Manifold Source: RENEW The distribution of properties in council tax bands E H is shown in Appendix B1 B3. It is clear that higher value property makes a nominal contribution to the overall housing stock in Stoke as a local authority. In Newcastle-under-Lyme, there appears to be a clear distinction between the north and east of the local authority with a low representation of higher valued stock compared to the south in particular in Loggerheads and Whitmore, Keele and Westlands and west such as in Halmerend and Madeley Higher value property appears to represent a greater proportion and wider distribution of property stock in Staffordshire Moorlands, particularly towards the east of the district in the National Park (Appendix Map B3). 4.2 Current high-end property market context Land Registry sales data was examined for the period Q Q The dataset comprises 31,702 individual residential sales records from open market transactions in the three local authorities of North Staffordshire, over the four-year period. By way of comparison the rate of private sector turnover is far greater in Stoke at 18,839 transactions over this period, compared to 7,139 in Newcastle-under-Lyme and 5,724 sales in Staffordshire Moorlands within this period In terms of analysing the depth of the high-end property market in North Staffordshire, unsurprisingly a significantly higher number of transactions have been recorded in Staffordshire Moorlands and Newcastle-under-Lyme for properties in excess of 400,000 compared to Stoke. The justification for adopting a 400,000 threshold for upper market housing is two-fold. Namely this property value reflects the council tax discount for Stoke encompassing a comparable upper-end market within bands E-H. Secondly the feedback from considerable focus group work with local agents and residents identified this level at which properties were considered to be in the highest market The total number of recorded transactions above this threshold between Q and Q was 63 sales in Stoke. All sales were existing stock apart from two new build sales and all apart from three being detached properties. Table 4.6 identifies those high-end nondetached property sales over this period, illustrating the constrained demand for upper market housing typologies from the traditional detached type. Each transaction was recorded as an existing semi-detached property within a suburban / rural location. Table 4.6: Non-detached upper market property transactions - Stoke Price Type New Build / Existing Post Code Ward Name Rural / Suburban / Urban 370,000 Semi Existing ST3 5YD Longton North Suburban / Rural 379,950 Semi Existing ST4 8XJ Trentham & Hanford Suburban / Rural arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

18 395,000 Semi Existing ST2 9DD Berryhill & Hanley East Suburban / Rural Source: RENEW, Land Registry In Newcastle-under-Lyme the number of transactions above this threshold was 53. All sales were existing stock apart from four new build sales and all sales except 17 being detached properties, 9 semi-detached and 8 terraced. Table 4.7 identifies those high-end nondetached property sales over this period, illustrating the depth of upper market housing typologies from the traditional detached type. Each transaction was recorded as an existing property apart from two new builds, the majority within a rural / suburban location. Notably there is an equal representation of larger terraced / townhouse and semi-detached properties. Table 4.7: Non-detached upper market property transactions Newcastle-under-Lyme Price Type New Build / Existing Post Code Ward Name Rural / Suburban / Urban 750,000 T Existing ST5 0QW May Bank Suburban Loggerheads and 760,000 T Existing TF9 4HE Whitmore Rural 775,000 S Existing ST5 5HB Loggerheads and Whitmore Rural 595,000 T Existing TF9 2PA Loggerheads and Whitmore Rural 495,000 T Existing TF9 2PA Loggerheads and Whitmore Rural 500,000 S Existing ST5 0QN May Bank Urban / Suburban 520,000 T New Build TF9 4NA Loggerheads and Whitmore Rural 350,000 T Existing TF9 4HJ Loggerheads and Whitmore Rural 350,000 S Existing CW3 9QL Madeley Rural 355,000 S Existing CW3 9AN Halmerend Rural / Suburban 375,000 S Existing ST5 3LT Westlands Suburban / Urban 377,500 S Existing ST5 1DP Town Urban / Suburban 385,000 S Existing TF9 2QH Loggerheads and Whitmore Rural 389,950 S Existing TF9 4NB Loggerheads and Whitmore Rural 397,000 S New Build ST5 3JG Westlands Rural / Suburban 429,000 T Existing ST5 2NF Thistleberry Suburban 475,000 T Existing ST5 3GZ Knutton and Silverdale Rural / Suburban Source: RENEW, Land Registry In Staffordshire Moorlands 78 transactions were recorded above 400,000. All sales were existing stock apart from seven new build sales and all sales except 39 being for detached properties. Table 4.8 identifies those high-end non-detached property sales over this period, illustrating the depth of upper market housing typologies from the traditional detached type. Each transaction was recorded as an existing property apart from two new builds, the majority within a rural / suburban location. Notably there is an equal representation of larger terraced / townhouse and semi-detached properties, with only one recorded sale for a flat within this market. arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

19 Table 4.8: Non-detached upper market property transactions Staffordshire Moorlands Price Type New Build / Existing Post Code Ward Name Rural / Suburban / Urban 370,000 T Existing ST13 5LR Leek East Rural / Suburban 440,000 S Existing ST13 8JS Leek North Rural / Suburban 365,000 S Existing ST13 8DL Leek West Suburban / Rural 495,000 S Existing ST10 4JH Checkley Rural 980,000 S Existing CW12 3QJ Horton Rural 370,000 T Existing ST9 9PS Bagnall and Stanley Rural 390,000 T Existing SK17 0NZ Manifold Rural 360,000 S Existing ST9 9NJ Bagnall and Stanley Rural 400,000 S Existing ST13 5PA Leek South Suburban 370,000 S Existing ST13 7EA Cheddleton Rural 400,000 S Existing ST11 9BG Forsbrook Rural 450,000 T Existing ST9 9NS Bagnall and Stanley Rural 385,000 T Existing ST13 6AB Leek North Urban 481,000 S Existing ST10 4BN Alton Rural 364,000 T Existing ST9 9LX Bagnall and Stanley Rural 570,000 S Existing ST8 6QP Biddulph North Suburban 670,000 F New Build DE6 2FR Hamps Valley Rural 365,000 S Existing ST11 9HQ Forsbrook Suburban / Rural 404,000 T Existing ST9 9QF Horton Rural 950,000 S Existing SK11 0RF Dane Rural 357,000 S Existing ST13 5SB Leek East Suburban / Rural 480,000 S Existing ST13 8SB Leek North Rural 430,000 S Existing ST13 5EZ Leek North Urban 395,000 T Existing ST13 8SA Leek North Rural 375,000 T Existing ST13 7AL Leek South Rural 590,000 S Existing ST13 7QZ Hamps Valley Rural 500,000 T Existing ST10 2BA Churnet Rural 370,000 T Existing ST13 8RN Horton Rural 600,000 T Existing ST13 5RD Leek South Rural 410,000 S New Build ST10 3BQ Alton Rural 440,000 T Existing ST9 0BA Cheddleton Rural 425,000 T Existing ST8 7PS Biddulph South Rural 430,000 T Existing ST8 7RS Biddulph North Rural 660,000 S Existing ST10 4AP Alton Rural 385,000 S Existing ST10 4BH Alton Rural 595,000 S Existing ST13 8SH Dane Rural 350,000 S Existing ST9 9DY Source: RENEW, Land Registry Brown Edge and Endon As the tables above indicate there is a considerable paucity of new build executive property supply on the current market throughout the three authorities of North Staffordshire. The total number of new build sales in this sector across the three authorities being 13 sales over this period. The main focus of transaction activity within the high end market recorded within existing properties within a rural and suburban location. This feature of the North Staffordshire executive market is highlighted within section 6 agent and developer interviews Rural 350,000 S Existing ST13 8PU Horton Rural arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

20 below. Illustrating a distinct absence of new build property currently on the market, the highest priced new build stock in North Staffordshire is 259,995, volume-built and not representative of an executive market according to the definitions provided The value ranges used in this assessment of current high-end property transactions include; K range covers the very high end property stock in Stoke and high end property in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands; K range covers the exceptional and exclusive properties in Stoke and the very high end properties in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands; 750K+ covers the exceptional and exclusive properties in Newcastle-under- Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands Identified property sales within the three high-end value ranges are broken down by ward and local authority in Tables below. Table 4.9: High end house price transactions by ward - Stoke Ward name K Abbey Green 2 Bentilee and Townsend 1 Berryhill and Hanley East 1 Blurton 1 Burslem North 1 East Valley 4 Longton North 1 Meir Park and Sandon 1 Northwood and Birches Head 1 Stoke and Trent Vale K Trentham and Hanford 9 1 Source: Land Registry, RENEW 750K As illustrated in Table 4.9, only one property could be classified as exclusive and exceptional in terms of price, this property recorded in the Trentham and Hanford ward. As we have illustrated elsewhere, this ward comprises the highest proportion of private sector stock in the highest council tax bands and the highest average household income of Stoke wards Stoke has a highly constrained supply of high value housing. Indeed the fact that all but one property has been sold for sub- 500,000 would indicate that compared to some higher value areas an executive housing product does not exist Table 4.10 illustrates the higher representation of high value properties within Newcastleunder-Lyme. A total of 130 transactions are recorded within the high-end range, 18 sales within the very-high range and 6 within the exceptional range. These transactions are recorded within the ward of Loggerheads and Whitmore and include a sale in excess of 1.1M. The wards of Westlands, Halmerend and May Bank also record representation within the very high range. Table 4.10: High end house price transactions by ward - Newcastle-under-Lyme arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

21 Ward name K Audley and Bignall End K Halmerend 9 3 Keele 1 Knutton and Silverdale 1 750K+ Loggerheads and Whitmore Madeley 3 1 May Bank 5 2 Newchapel 3 Seabridge 3 Thistleberry 5 1 Town 3 Westlands 27 4 Wolstanton 1 Source: Land Registry, RENEW Table 4.11 illustrates the higher representation of high value properties within Staffordshire Moorlands. A total of 145 transactions are recorded within the high-end range, 30 sales within the very-high range and 8 within the exceptional range. These transactions are recorded within six wards and include sales in excess of 1M. Table 4.11: High end house price transactions by ward Staffordshire Moorlands Ward name K+ 500K 750K Alton 7 1 Bagnall and Stanley 10 1 Biddulph Moor 2 Biddulph North Biddulph South 1 Brown Edge and Endon 5 1 Caverswall 2 1 Cheadle South East 1 Cheadle West 1 Checkley Cheddleton 12 Churnet 5 4 Dane Forsbrook 9 1 Halmerend 1 Hamps Valley Horton Ipstones 8 Leek East 8 Leek North 9 1 Leek South 7 1 Leek West 3 Manifold Tutbury and Outwoods 1 arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

22 Werrington 3 Source: Land Registry, RENEW 4.3 Wider Housing Reference Area As the research identifies, the market for executive housing operates over a wide area, larger than housing markets are normally defined. The market is often described as regional, but as North Staffordshire sits on the boundary of two regions it is appropriate to consider a cross-regional wider market area. Following consultation, we based it on the wider reference area for the North Staffordshire housing market and included the (prereorganisation) LA areas of Crewe and Nantwich, Congleton, Stafford and North Shropshire Table 4.12 illustrates the buying activity of detached properties in this wider housing reference area over the last three years. The number of properties commanding prices in excess of 500,000-1M in North Shropshire represents 4.5% of the total market, higher than that in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands. The volume of transactions at 400K- 500K records almost 10% of the total market share of detached sales. In terms of sales volumes, North Shropshire is comparable with Newcastle-under-Lyme In terms of transaction volumes, Stafford records a considerable number of sales within the higher price bands, comparable with, though slightly higher in numerical terms with Staffordshire Moorlands over the three-year period. Comparable levels of transactions in the higher price categories are recorded, including individual exceptional priced sales in excess of 1M The analysis has focussed upon detached property transactions due to nominal levels of activity in the higher price categories for other property types such as flats, semi-detached and terraced properties. In Stafford sales of these property types recorded over this three year period were 8 semi-detached between K, no flats and 4townhouse / terraced properties. No transactions recorded for these types over 500,000. Table 4.12: Buying activity wider Housing Reference Area to date North Shropshire Nos % Nos % Nos % Under 100K 5 1.2% 3 1.2% 2 2.5% K % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 7 8.8% % 8 3.2% 1 1.3% 750-1M 2 0.5% 2 0.8% 0 0.0% Total % % % Stafford Nos % Nos % Nos % Under 100K 5 0.8% 2 0.6% 3 1.9% K % % % % % % % % % % % % arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80

23 % % 9 5.7% % % 5 3.2% 750-1M 1 0.2% 3 0.8% 0 0.0% 1M % 1 0.3% 0 0.0% Total % % % Congleton Nos % Nos % Nos % Under 100K 7 1.0% 3 1.0% 3 2.9% K % % % % % % % % % % % 9 8.6% % % 4 3.8% % % 2 1.9% 750-1M 3 0.4% 0 0.0% 1 1.0% 1M % 1 0.3% 0 0.0% Total % % % Crewe and Nantwich Nos % Nos % Nos % Under 100K 2 0.3% 4 1.3% 3 2.3% K % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2 1.6% 750-1M 2 0.3% 4 1.3% 0 0.0% 1M % 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Total % % % Source: Land Registry Q As Table 4.12 illustrates, the buying activity of detached properties in the wider South Cheshire area incorporating Congleton and Crewe and Nantwich over the last three years has declined significantly in line with the wider market trends. In Congleton, in terms of absolute transaction levels and distribution of stock, similar trends are drawn with Staffordshire Moorlands. However in both Congleton and Crewe and Nantwich a higher concentration of sales are recorded in the mid-range executive properties namely 400K - 500K price band The analysis of the extent of the respective executive markets across the wider housing market reference area identifies the comparative lack of housing being sold within this sector in Stoke-on-Trent in particular. The majority of transactions at this level are recorded for existing detached properties The overall position is shown in Table To give a snapshot, it is probably reasonable to consider the annual level of transactions at prices of 500k and over, based on 2007 and This covers a year that had buoyant activity and one of declining activity. The figures for the first half of 2009 are much lower, and represent a depressed rather than a normal market. On this basis, there are arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept of 80