Street Address: 1111 Franklin Street Oakland, CA Mailing Address: 1111 Franklin Street Oakland, CA 94607

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1 Contacts University of California Curriculum Integration (UCCI) Institute Sarah Fidelibus, UCCI Program Manager Street Address: 1111 Franklin Street Oakland, CA Program Information Mailing Address: 1111 Franklin Street Oakland, CA Phone: (510) Web Site: ucci.ucop.edu 2. Course Contact Teacher Contact: Marianne Cartan Position/Title: Educational Consultant Phone: A. COVER PAGE - Course ID Course Title Business Statistics - Math (UCCI) 2. Transcript Title/Abbreviation Business Statistics - Math (UCCI) 3. Transcript Course Code/Number 4. Seeking Honors Distinction? No Subject: Mathematics 5. Subject Area Category: Statistics 6. Grade Level(s) 11,12 7. Unit Value 0.5 (half year or semester equiv.) 8. Previously Approved Was this course previously approved by UC? No 9. Is this course classified as a Career Technical Education course: Yes Name of Industry Sector: Finance and Business Name of Career Pathway: Business Financial Management 10. Brief Course Description Business Statistics introduces students to elements of statistical concepts, techniques, and tools for collecting, analyzing, and drawing conclusions from data as applied in business. The course focuses on the student as a user and producer of statistics to inform and support decision making in business with emphasis on the use of business-oriented computer statistical instruments. Students are exposed to four broad conceptual themes: 1. Exploring Data: Describing patterns and departures from patterns 2. Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and conducting a study

2 3. Anticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation 4. Statistical Inference: Estimating population parameters and testing hypotheses Students who successfully complete the course will learn how to: develop skills in using statistics tools (e.g., SPSS and spreadsheets); determine and apply the correct procedures to use in a given business situation; interpret the meaning of confidence intervals in context; interpret the results of hypothesis tests; and make an informed decision, based on the results of inferential procedures. 11. Pre-Requisites Algebra I (Required) Geometry (Required) Algebra II (Required) 12. Co-Requisites (Recommended) 13. Context for Course This is an integrated business course utilizing Statistics concepts in a business environment. The course is designed to prepare students for the natural progression to higher math courses, and could be used for students for whom a course rich in business skills and applications will increase their likelihood of success. The applications throughout the course allow students to see the connection of mathematical concepts and real-world application in a business environment. Also, this course could be part of a Business Academy as a course in a sequence of business and mathematical courses. 14. History of Course Development This course was developed at the Spring 2010 University of California Curriculum Integration (UCCI) Institute focusing on subject area c - mathematics and the Career Technical Education (CTE) industry sector Finance and Business. It has been challenging for educators to find and develop linkages with certain disciplines, including English, history/social sciences, and mathematics. To address these challenges, the University of California created the UCCI Institute to focus on subject areas that have proven to be difficult to develop integrated curriculum. Over sixty California high school math and CTE instructors, administrators, curriculum specialists, and UC staff were assembled into teams and challenged to develop innovative model courses that infuse core foundational math concepts with relevant career technical elements. 15. Textbooks TEXTBOOK Title: Statistics Through Applications Edition: 2nd Publication Date: 2009 Publisher: Freeman Author(s): Daren S. Starnes, Daniel S. Yates, David S. Moore URL Resource: Usage: Primary Text Read in entirety or near entirety 16. Supplemental Instructional Materials Business Statistics Demystified by Steven Kemp and Sid Kemp (McGraw Hill) Accounting Real-World Applications & Connections (Glencoe) Entrepreneurship Building a Business (Glencoe) Course Purpose B. COURSE CONTENT Students will recognize the importance of statistics and their role in effective decision making in the areas of business, marketing, and accounting. This course covers principles of statistical analysis including: presentation and analysis of data; measures of organizing and describing data; computing center, spread, and range; interpreting summaries of data; and making predictions based on data, with common sense as a guide. Students will analyze data, test hypotheses, and forecast business trends to determine and calculate business risks and benefits.

3 Course Outline Unit 1 Business Statistics Defined Recognize the importance of statistics and their role in effective business decision making. Topics include basic statistical mathematics and business vocabulary, comparing/contrasting several examples of business plans, and focusing on the mathematics involved in the presentation of business viability. Define statistical vocabulary (i.e., categorical vs. quantitative variable, distribution, sample data etc.) Distinguish between quantitative and categorical variable Define business vocabulary (i.e. target market, demographics, samples, population, exploring the internet, HTML, web browser, green company, bias, Dot-com Company, business management, entrepreneur, finance, accounting) Unit 2 Data Types and Samples / Business Demand Students will analyze and interpret collected data to predict demand for a product or service. Organizing quantitative data Create and interpret graphic representation of data such as frequency tables, bar charts, pie charts, contingency tables, etc. Sampling errors Survey Product/service analysis Market research and analysis Industry analysis Market share/competition Brand loyalty Unit 3 Data Interpretation / Business Decisions Students will summarize data with appropriate graphic representations (i.e., bar charts, pie charts, histograms, stem plots, dot plots, and time plots). Utilizing this information, they will make determinations as to profit/loss possibilities, product viability, and marketing options. Interpret graphic representation of data (from frequency tables, bar charts, pie charts, stem and leaf, line chart, histogram, etc.) Analyze graphic representation of data by finding spread, center, and shape of graphic representation of data Determine frequency distribution Profit/loss possibilities Product viability Marketing options Target market Supply and demand Business decisions Unit 4 Measures of Central Tendency / Business Trends Students will research, analyze and disseminate the measure and analysis of sample statistics used to estimate characteristics of a product/service and its potential for success. Find measures of central tendency Normal distribution Calculate mean, median, mode, to include: Identification of outliers Curvature Best fit curves Dispersion Confidence Variance Business trends

4 Product/service Prices Total sales Forecasting, to include: Sales forecasting Budget forecasting Demand forecasting Trend analysis Moving average analysis Weighted moving analysis Adaptive filtering Exponential smoothing Unit 5 Statistical Probability / Business Students predict business outcomes based upon probability forecasting. Determine sample space Probability analysis Theoretical probability Regular distribution Law of Large Numbers Personal probability Multiplication rule Sampling distribution Probability analysis Product lines Marketing Competition Quantitative vs. qualitative Forecasting Unit 6: Data Research and Analysis / Managing Marketing Strategies Students will collect, analyze, and represent data to conduct market research to identify and determine potential target market, formulate sales projections, and determine cost benefit ratio by analyzing frequency, sample, exponential growth and decay, and probability distributions. Frequency Sample Exponential growth Standard normal curve Target market Formulate sales projections Cost benefit ratio Survey Unit 7: Confidence Interval / Risk Management Students will test hypotheses and determine and calculate risk. Hypotheses test Measure significance Normal distributions Product profitability Cost analysis Economics of One Unit (Economies of Scale) Cost of materials and direct labor Projected sales Asset management (real estate, investments, stocks, insurance) Unit 8: Linear Regression / Forecasting & Decision Making Students will forecast marketing trends and determine relationships between variables, find the equation of a line

5 that best fits a given data set, and compute the correlation coefficient to determine positive/negative correlation. Linear regressions Least squares estimation Hypotheses test Positive/negative correlation Scatter diagrams Statistical significance Business data Target market Business correlation Business viability Business predictions Sales projections Unit 9 Data Analysis / Strategic Planning Students analyze and interpret an annual report in order to formulate the basis of creating a strategic plan to determine future market/business performance by analyzing given charts, sample, frequency, significance testing, and growth probability. Outliers Residuals Subsets Leverage influence Linear regression t-test Strategic plan Research Organizing data Sales forecasting Industry competition Marketing plan Financial plan Unit 10 Re-Expressing Data / Advanced Business Decisions Students will analyze, synthesize and integrate statistical knowledge in order to make business decisions. They will apply the prior statistical lessons to real world businesses, make decisions based on their statistical findings, and predict future profitability. Re-expression of data Linearization Histograms Business plan Market analysis Surveys Economics of One Unit/Economies of Scale Cost of materials Direct labor Retail Price Return on investment Return on sales Key Assignments NOTE: Students will be doing assigned daily math homework from the selected textbook that will be used to assess their knowledge of the information covered during class time. (Unit 1) Business Statistics Vocabulary Assignment Students will develop a cartoon strip incorporating five of each statistical and business terms, for classroom display. (Unit 1) Cell Phone Case Study Assignment Students will compare and contrast three cell phone contract plans, including 2-year contract price, price-per-minute coverage, and data connection fees in a spreadsheet and produce a memo with a bar, pie, and line chart recommending which of three cell phone contract plans would be appropriate for that business. (Units 2) Favorites Survey Assignment Students are given the task to develop a survey based on 10 favorite things, administer their survey to 30+ students, and create a frequency chart based on their data. Students will then interpret the results, and, based on their findings, select a product to market to their peers.

6 (Unit 3) Favorites Survey Data Assignment Students use the frequency data from the previously created Favorites Survey to create a variety of graphical representations (bar charts, pie charts, histograms, stemplots, dot plots, and time plots) of product costs and projected sales. Students will develop a financial plan and advertising materials for their product. Students will explain and present their statistical analysis, product, financial plan, and advertising materials to the class. (Unit 3) Right Chart / Right Data Assignment Students collect similar data consisting of specific product sales, cost of manufacturing, and target demographics, from two competing businesses, then organize that into a histogram to determine the best business decision. (Unit 4) Starbucks vs. Micky D s Case Study Assignment Students are asked to compare and contrast trends of competing coffee products from each company given (i.e., products, prices, and total sales) and predict the probability of future success/decline of the designated products. Students then write a report to include: narrative, sample data, graphical representations, and prediction/justification statement. (Unit 4) Business Trends Students will list the prices of comparable Starbuck and McDonald coffee products and calculate mean, median, mode, standard deviation, and variance for each of the products. Students will research past sales and predict future sales trends for each of the products. (Unit 5) Business Probability Students use the internet to research how existing businesses use probability analysis to compare the performance of different products or different product lines. Students then present their findings to the class in a PowerPoint presentation including at least one table as an example. Also, students discuss how a business will use a probability analysis to choose from a variety of products or services. (Unit 6) Environmental Scan Students design, present and defend an environmental scan and analyze data to determine actual target market, utilizing population, random sampling, probability, measures of central tendency, and curvature. (Unit 7) Hypothesis Testing Students conduct a hypothesis test for population means, calculate the standard score for a sample mean to determine significance, and state their conclusion in order to determine product profitability. (Unit 8) Correlation Assignment Students are given business data to conduct a hypothesis test. Students will then create a linear regression from the given data to determine whether there is a positive/negative correlation between the viability of the company and the target market. (Unit 8) Scatter Diagram Assignment Students construct a scatter plot to show the correlation between a company s net income and the unemployment rate for the past five years. Students will determine if the scatter plot shows a positive or negative correlation and if there is causation. Then, students will predict the unemployment rate for next year, and, based on the prediction, determine the company s projected net income and suggest a product mix that will maximize profits. (Unit 9) Annual Report Assignment Students utilize the Internet to find an annual report for a company. Students then use linear regression, determining the best fit line, hence making predictions of future sales. In addition, students perform a t-test to determine how the business sales data compares significantly from the industry mean. Unit 10) Business Plan Students use previously learned statistical concepts to develop a business plan for a product or a business which includes a mission statement, financial plan, and marketing plan. The business plan is based upon: Market and financial analysis, including surveys, charts, and demographics The Economics of One Unit (EOU), including cost of materials/direct labor, based upon histograms Find the standard deviation of price relating to a product or service in order to calculate retail price Linear regression related to monthly sale projections to determine Return On Investment (ROI) and Return On Sales (ROS) Instructional Methods and/or Strategies Lectures, homework assignments, projects and field gathering of data will be the main instructional strategies used in this course. This course will rely heavily on simulations to extract fundamental statistical concepts. To make it possible to do inference early in the course, randomization tests will be used rather than tests using approximations based on a normal model. Although this technique is relatively new in an introductory level statistics course, it is extremely powerful because of its versatility and ability to be easily understood by students while still being theoretically correct. It also compels students to understand the reasoning of hypothesis testing rather than memorizing a set of algorithms and formulas. Technology and experiential learning opportunities will play a major role in the day-to-day instruction. Students will spend time during each unit working on projects where they collect data through experimentation or online research. Students will use graphing calculators to create graphs and calculate summary statistics as well as statistical software, spreadsheet software and online applets to run simulations. These methods allow the students the opportunity to investigate statistical questions of their own choosing and make the material more relevant and also more likely to be remembered. Direct Instruction: structured overview, vocabulary activities Independent Study: self assessment/journal, research Experiential Learning: guest speakers, projects, presentations Interactive Instruction: debates, discussion, peer-partner learning Indirect Instruction: reflective discussion, inquiry learning Assessments Including Methods and/or Tools Performance Assessment Tests Comprehensive Final Exams

7 Homework Classwork In-Class and Out-of-Class Projects Comprehensive Business Plan Student Portfolio Presentations