Commercial Market Share Tracking and Commercial Saturation Survey Research Plan Draft

Transcription

1 Commercial Market Share Tracking and Commercial Saturation Survey Research Plan Draft Prepared for California Public Utilities Commission Itron, Inc El Camino Real San Diego, California (858) February 7, 2012

2 Table of Contents 1 Introduction Overview Description of the Studies Goals and Objectives Research Objectives Research Plan Evolution over Time Evaluator Contact Information Research End Uses, Measures, and Segments CMST Measures and Segments High Priority Measures CMST Business Segments CSS End Uses, Measures, and Segments CSS End Uses and Measures CSS Business Segments Data Sources Key Input Data Sources Nonresidential Site Development Building Type Classification Program Tracking Data Key Input Data Integration and Output Data Description CMST Supply-Side Data Sample Design Develop the Sampling Frame Stratification Sample Design for the Telephone Survey Sample Design for the CMST On-Site End-User Verification Sample Design for the CSS On-Site Surveys CMST Supply-Side Survey Survey Development and Implementation Telephone Survey Development Telephone Survey Coordination Telephone Survey Content Telephone Survey Implementation On-Site Survey Development On-Site Survey Coordination CMST On-Site Survey Content CSS On-Site Survey Content On-Site Survey Implementation Develop On-Site Protocols Develop On-Site Training Information Itron, Inc. i Table of Contents

3 Conduct Training for Surveyors Research Methodology Telephone Survey Telephone Results On-Site Surveys On-Site Results Supply-Side Actor Surveys Timeline Work Plan and Budget Task 1: Project Management Task 2: Develop and Update the Research Plan Task 3: Data Development: Site Development, Business Categories, and Final Meter Match-Up Site Development Building Type Categories Final Meter Matchup Task 4: Sample Design Task 5: Telephone Survey Development and Implementation Task 5.1 Survey Development Task 5.2 Survey Implementation Task 5.3: Telephone Survey Analysis Task 6: On-Site Survey Development Task 6.1. Development the CMST and CSS Survey Instruments Task 6.2. On-Site Survey Training and Testing Task 6.3. CMST On-Site Survey Implementation Task 6.4. CSS On-Site Survey Implementation Task 6.5. On-Site Survey Expenses Task 7: Develop the Survey Database Task 8: CMST Supply-Side Actor Survey Task 9: Analysis and Reporting Task 10: Web Presentation Tool Budget Itron, Inc. ii Table of Contents

4 1 Introduction This document presents the Research Plan for the Commercial Market Share Tracking Study (CMST) and the Commercial Saturation Survey (CSS). The Research Plan includes a description of the studies, the goals and objectives of the research studies, the data to be collected and how these data will be evaluated, the sources of the information to be used, the approaches for sampling, the methods to be employed to analyze the data collected and how coordination and communication will occur with the other related evaluation and research studies. 1.1 Overview Description of the Studies The CMST and CSS research projects are designed to collect the data necessary to describe current baseline purchases of select high priority equipment and the current baseline saturation of measures in businesses in the commercial population. These data will help describe both the current market activity for select measures and the existing stock of commercial measures and characteristics of commercial buildings. The CMST study will collect information on recent purchases of high priority measures. The high priority measures chosen for evaluation as part of the CMST study include linear fluorescents, televisions, and packaged HVAC. The study will collect information on recent purchases of both standard and high efficiency measures. Collecting information on both standard and high efficiency purchases will lead to the development of an estimate of total market purchases and to the distribution of these purchases between base and high efficiency measures. The study will also use information from the IOU energy efficiency program tracking databases to help determine the share of high efficiency purchases receiving an IOU rebate. The CSS study will collect baseline information that will help program managers and the CPUC better understand the characteristics of current commercial energy consuming measures and commercial buildings. The study will collect an extensive list of information on commercial businesses, including but not limited to commercial firm demographics, the saturation, age, condition, and efficiency level of commercial energy consuming measures, and building usage patterns and square footage. Itron, Inc. 1-1 Introduction

5 Section 2, Research End Uses, Measures, and Segments, provides more details on the end uses, measures and building segments chosen for these research studies. Section 3, Data Sources, will discuss the multiple data sources that will be used to collect the desired information. 1.2 Goals and Objectives In order to extract the greatest value from these two research studies, the information needs from multiple groups have been collected, analyzed and reviewed. The research plan, data collection devices, and test survey findings have been reviewed and commented on by the CPUC, the IOUs, ED consultants, evaluation managers, and the Jeff Hirsch team 1. The careful development of the research and the data collection devices will lead to a more efficient collection of the desired information. Developing survey forms that leverage both the former California Energy Commission Commercial End-Use Survey (CEC CEUS) and Small Commercial Evaluation survey forms will ensure that the data collected represent both ongoing research interests and more recently developed technologies and information needs. A central goal of the CMST study is to describe the recent purchases of high priority measures from both end users and supply-side actors. Collecting information from supply-side actors will provide a broad picture of the current market for linear fluorescents and packaged HVACs. Collecting recent purchase information from end users, and verifying this information with onsite data collection, will provide precise information on the efficiency level of recent purchases and the rebate status of these purchases. These data collection efforts will be coordinated with the CSS and other studies to balance costs with the desire to collect information from multiple types of market actors. The central goal of the CSS study is to document the baseline distribution of energy using measures within commercial businesses. These data will provide the CPUC, IOUs, and other evaluations with information on which measures currently have a high saturation of high efficiency devices and which measures and business types have lower saturations of efficient measures and higher potential for future programs. These data will be compared with data collected from former saturations studies to show the progress achieved in replacing inefficient measures with newer, more efficient technologies. These data will also serves as inputs for future potential studies that will provide the CPUC and the IOUs with a detailed picture of the remaining achievable energy savings potential. 1 Jeff Hirsch and Associates has reviewed the research plan and contributed to the information needs and form development as it relates to the needs of the DEER project. Itron, Inc. 1-2 Introduction

6 1.3 Research Objectives The specific research objectives of the CMST study are listed below. 2 1) Determine the distribution of linear fluorescents by T12 and generation of T8 for lighting purchased by nonresidential business since ) Collect information on the types of linear fluorescent electronic ballast recently purchased. 3) Determine the share of recent purchases of efficient linear fluorescents that are incented by IOU rebates. 4) Collect information on the total number of televisions purchased by nonresidential businesses, determine the base and high efficiency share of recent TV purchases, collect self-report information on TV run times, and determine the share of recent TV purchases that represent TV replacements and those that reflect new load growth. 5) Determine the share of base and high efficiency packaged air conditioning units purchased by nonresidential customers and determine the IOU rebate status of these purchases. The research objectives of the CSS study center around determining the current baseline of equipment in commercial businesses. Some of the specific information to be collected and its research objectives are briefly listed below. The research objectives and coordination with other work orders are described in more depth in Section 2, Research End Uses, Measures, and Segments. 3 1) Collect information on the lighting employed in commercial businesses through a full inventory of commercial lighting. These data will provide a complete picture of the types of lighting currently employed. The data will illustrate the advancements made in linear fluorescents and depict the types of lighting currently used in medium screw sockets. 2) Determine the number and type of office equipment, including computers and printers, currently used in commercial buildings. These data will be compared to previous estimates of the saturation of office equipment to better understand the growth in this end use. 3) Determine the operating schedules, number, and types of televisions currently used in commercial buildings. These data will be combined with information on recent TV 2 The CMST study will include end-user on-site surveys in nearly all non-residential segments, excluding only transportation, communications, and utilities (TCU), agriculture, mining, and street lighting. See Section 2 for a more detailed description. 3 The CSS study will include on-site surveys in many commercial segments. The survey will not undertake surveys in the following segments, TCU, agriculture, mining, street lighting, industrial, hospitals, colleges, and lodging. See Section 2 for a more detailed description. Itron, Inc. 1-3 Introduction

7 purchases to determine the potential for future energy savings and to develop a better understanding of the energy usage associated with this quickly evolving measure. 4) Collect information on the HVAC equipment currently used in commercial buildings. The data collection will focus on packaged units while also collecting information on larger, more diverse systems. The data collected include make and model numbers, age, condition, operating schedules, and maintenance practices. These data will illustrate the current baseline of HVAC equipment and help to describe the potential of HVAC retrofits and quality maintenance services. 5) Determine the current baseline for commercial refrigeration equipment. The on-site survey will focus on both self contained and remote refrigeration. The data collected for self contained will focus on measures currently incented by IOU programs. The form will collect information on key characteristics and make and model number. The data collected for remote refrigeration will include information on cases, walk-ins, compressors and condensers. 6) Collect information on the building square footage that will be combined with the building energy usage to calculate whole-building energy intensities. These data will help to describe the whole-building energy intensities by building type and will provide a baseline for future studies. 7) Determine the current baseline for commercial customers aware of, and those who have participated in, integrated nonresidential audits where they may have learned about multiple forms of DSM including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed generation. In the future, the baseline awareness collected during this study will be used to gauge progress made toward educating customers on integrated audits, DSM, and the potential to integrate multiple forms of DSM. 1.4 Research Plan Evolution over Time This research plan will guide the CSS and CMST research studies. One of the primary inputs into the development of the plan was the research needs of other evaluation teams and the DEER team, the information needs of the CPUC and IOUs, and future uses of the data for potential studies and to provide baseline data useful for evaluating Market Transformation Indices, Strategic Plan Progress Indicators, and Long Term Program Performance Metrics. The plan will continue to be reviewed and evolve overtime as new data becomes available, as well as when research findings from these or other studies become available. At a minimum, this plan will be updated as results from the telephone survey become available. The results from the telephone survey will be used to determine if some of the high priority measures should be re-evaluated or if additional measures should be incorporated into the analysis. It is not expected, however, that any major deviations from this plan will occur. Itron, Inc. 1-4 Introduction

8 1.5 Evaluator Contact Information Itron will serve as the IOU Prime Contractor managing the CSS and the CMST studies, led by Ms Jean Shelton. The ED Project Manager of the study is Ms Valerie Kao. The following is Ms. Kao s and Ms. Shelton s contact information: IOU Prime Contractor Jean Shelton, Ph.D. ED Project Manager Valerie Kao (858) (415) Jean.Shelton@itron.com Valerie.Kao@cpuc.ca.gov Itron, Inc. 1-5 Introduction

9 2 Research End Uses, Measures, and Segments This section summarizes the end uses, measures and segments to be incorporated into the CMST and the CSS studies. Furthermore, the section discusses why and how key decisions were made to include and exclude areas of study. The section also highlights the coordination between these research efforts and other work orders and how this coordination has impacted the studies designs. 2.1 CMST Measures and Segments High Priority Measures To determine the measures to incorporate into the CMST study, Itron reached out to other work order leads, the CPUC, DEER Team, and IOUs, requesting that they help to choose the measures that would be well suited for inclusion in the CMST. The criteria for inclusion included measures with significant program activity or recent code changes, measures whose sales are sufficient to justify a market share study, measures associated with the Strategic Plan or Market Transformation Indices and measures whose sales distribution was important but uncertain. The information needs process helped to determine that the highest priority CMST needs include the following: 1) The distribution of linear fluorescents and information on the types of electronic ballast purchased, 2) The total number of televisions purchased by commercial businesses, the base and high efficiency share, and additional TV options, and 3) The share of base and high efficiency commercial packaged air conditioning units purchased. In addition to the measures listed above, members of the CMST research team have suggested that the research include opportunistic questions with the telephone survey to capture recent purchases of other measures within the nonresidential market. Test telephone surveys conducted in December 2011 incorporated a question querying about other measures purchased since January of The preliminary results from the test telephone surveys found that many businesses had purchased computers during this time frame. Given the high incidence of recent computer purchases and the highly variable and changing nature of this measure, all telephone Itron, Inc. 2-1 Research End Uses, Measures and Segments

10 survey respondents will be asked if they have recently purchased computers. For sites agreeing to a CSS or CMST on-site survey, sites that that indicated in during the telephone survey that they had recently purchased computers will be asked about the number of computers purchased and the make and model number of recent computer purchases. Where possible, the make and model numbers will be verified during the on-site data collection. 4 The computer purchase information will be reviewed and analyzed to determine the number and types of computers purchased. Linear Fluorescent Lighting The Commercial Lighting Evaluation (WO029), the Measure Cost Study (WO017), and the DEER team are interested in gathering information on the purchases of linear fluorescents and ballasts and the types of lighting being sold and installed in high bay applications. With the upcoming implementation of federal lighting codes, most T12 lamps will no longer be manufactured. This code change will also impact IOU per unit claimed savings values. IOU commercial programs, in combination with federal standards, have encouraged California businesses to replace T12 lighting with T8 lighting for several years. High efficiency T8 lighting, and their ballasts, however, can be purchased in several different generations and configurations. The CMST study will help evaluators, the DEER team, and the IOUs better understand the current distribution of sales of T8 generation lighting and the ballasts installed during these retrofits. A better understanding of the share of sales across T8 generations is crucial as federal standards forbidding the manufacturing of T12 lamps come into effect. The end user market tracking information will also be combined with the program tracking information to better describe the types of lighting currently receiving IOU rebates and the types of lighting measures purchased outside the IOU programs. This study will help to describe the current baseline of rebated and non-rebated lighting purchases. These baselines are needed to more accurately calculate the savings from T8 lighting retrofits. Information on recent T8 lighting purchases undertaken with and without IOU rebates will also help the IOUs better develop programs under the new lighting standards. The supply-side actor market tracking information will also provide a broad picture of types of linear fluorescent lighting being purchased in California by commercial businesses. Televisions The CMST study will coordinate with the Business and Consumer Electronics (BCE) evaluation team (WO034) to collect information on recent purchases of televisions within the nonresidential 4 Collecting information on the make and model number of computers requires that the surveyors evaluate the trade-offs associated with collecting the necessary information and disturbing the customers. Where possible, the make and model number information will be collected from site contacts who may be responsible for ordering and/or configuring the new computers. Itron, Inc. 2-2 Research End Uses, Measures and Segments

11 sector. The BCE team is evaluating the energy savings achieved from IOU rebated high efficiency business and consumer electronics, including televisions. Given the upstream nature of IOU television rebates it is difficult to determine if a rebated television measure is intended to be used by residential or nonresidential customers. The hours of use and resultant savings achieved from high efficiency TVs, however, is highly dependent on sector and business type. The CMST study will collect information on recent purchases of TVs by businesses. The study will help to determine the number of TVs purchased by nonresidential customers and the high or standard efficiency of the purchase. Combining the CMST data with the IOU tracking data will help to determine if the share of nonresidential TV purchases reported by IOU tracking data is consistent with nonresidential TV purchases. The questions incorporated into the CMST telephone survey will enable the team to better determine the business types purchasing TVs and may lead to the development of better estimates of the hours of TV use by businesses. Analysis of the telephone survey data will also help to determine the share of TVs purchased as replacements for existing TVs and those representing load growth. The telephone and on-site verification data collected by the CMST study on recent television purchases by the nonresidential sector will provide a baseline of the current TV market purchases that will be used to describe future changes in this quickly evolving market place. The data collected will provide new information on the current share of high efficiency TVs in the nonresidential sector; it will assist with the development of nonresidential savings within the BCE evaluation, and will provide data for the DEER team if they choose to include TVs within the DEER database. Package Air Conditioning The CMST study will coordinate with the DEER team, the Residential and Small Commercial HVAC Evaluation ( WO032), the Measure Cost Study (WO017) and the Residential and Small Commercial HVAC Market Effects Study ( WO054) to track the purchases of base and high efficiency packaged air conditioning units to the nonresidential sector. For many business types the primary source of air conditioning is packaged units. The IOU tracking databases record units rebated through utility programs, but very little is known about the number of base efficiency units purchased or the share of high efficiency units purchased without a utility rebate. The market share tracking study will help to determine the distribution of base and high efficiency sales and will determine the share of high efficiency sales receiving an IOU rebate. This information will help the evaluation and DEER team better understand the current baseline of air conditioning purchases and will help the IOUs better understand the influence of their programs on these purchases. Itron, Inc. 2-3 Research End Uses, Measures and Segments

12 CMST Business Segments The market share tracking effort will collect information from end users and supply-side actors on recent purchases and sales of linear fluorescents and packaged HVAC units. The research will also collect end user information on purchases of televisions. To ensure that sales and purchase data fully represent the nonresidential market for these measures, the study will incorporate business segments that represent both the commercial and industrial sectors. Specifically, the supply-side actor surveys will question contractors and/or distributors on the sales of linear fluorescents and packaged HVAC units to all nonresidential customers. The end users telephone survey will contact end users in the nonresidential frame other than those classified as agricultural, street lighting, mining, and transportation, communications, and utilities ( TCU). 5 The end users on-site verification survey will contact those end users who responded to the telephone survey that they had recently purchased a high priority measure and they were willing to participate in the on-site verification effort. 2.2 CSS End Uses, Measures, and Segments CSS End Uses and Measures To determine the end uses and measures to incorporate into the CSS study, Itron reached out to other work order leads, the CPUC, DEER Team, and IOUs, requesting that they provide input into end uses and measures that would be well suited for inclusion in the CSS. The criteria for inclusion included end uses and measures with significant program activity or recent code changes, end uses, measures, and services associated with the Strategic Plan or Market Transformation Indices, end uses that represent a significant quantity of energy usage, and those whose current saturation was high uncertain or likely to be undergoing rapid change. In addition, the JJH team was asked to provide specific information on the types of information that could be gathered from a commercial population survey that would help to clarify existing uncertainties within the DEER saving calculations. The end uses, measures, and additional information incorporated into the telephone and/or on-site surveys for the CSS are listed below. A more complete description follows. 1) Commercial Lighting 2) Office Equipment 3) Televisions 4) HVAC 5) Refrigeration 5 During the NAICS to business type classification process, the IOUs, CPUC, ED consultants, and Itron decided to eliminate these business types from the survey. The research group also eliminated a limited number of additional business types including non-common area residential buildings and parking lots. Itron, Inc. 2-4 Research End Uses, Measures and Segments

13 6) Program Awareness and Participation 7) Energy Management Systems 8) Distributed Generation 9) Firm Demographics Commercial Lighting The CEC CEUS analysis estimated that lighting accounted for approximately 35% of commercial energy usage. In addition, lighting measures represent technology long targeted by commercial energy efficiency programs and recent technology code updates. For these reasons, the CSS on-site survey effort will include a full inventory of commercial lighting measures. The development of the lighting questions has been coordinated with WO029. This survey provides the energy efficiency community with the opportunity to collect information on lighting for the population of commercial sites, a group of sites whose lighting technology distribution may differ from the energy efficiency lighting participants more often incorporated into verification on-site evaluations. The on-site data collection effort will collect make and model number information on lighting and ballasts wherever possible. The surveyors will collect information on the number of fixtures and lamps, the types of fixtures and lamps, and their special features. The verification effort will ask lighting schedules, age, and condition of lighting measures. The on-site data collection will also collect information on lighting controls, recent delamping and recent purchases. The telephone survey incorporates a series of questions that attempt to determine if the business has recently purchased CFLs through retail outlets. These questions will help to identify sites who may have participated in the upstream CFL rebate programs. These questions have been coordinated with WO028. The extensive quantity of commercial lighting information collected during the CSS on-sites will enable the CPUC, IOUs, and evaluation community to more fully understand the distribution of lighting technologies within commercial business. These data will be analyzed to provide information on saturations and efficiency levels by IOU and business type. Office Equipment According to analysis undertaken as part of the former CEC CEUS, office equipment was the fourth highest electricity consuming end use within commercial businesses. 6 The number of 6 The CEUS reflects the best available information on the distribution of energy use within the California commercial population. The data in the CEUS reflect the commercial energy consumption during the period. Itron, Inc. 2-5 Research End Uses, Measures and Segments

14 different types and configurations of office equipment has grown dramatically since the CEC CEUS and the expansion of commercial businesses employing cubical office designs has likely increased the density of these measures. The likely growth in density and in the different types of office equipment, including computers and printers, points to the need to incorporate these measures into the CSS. The CSS survey will collect information on office equipment observed in commercial businesses. The on-site data collection will indicate if the equipment is for personal or general use, if it uses a smart strip, is an Energy Star product, and the hours of weekly usage. The data collection effort will ask site contacts about recent purchased computers, collecting make and model number information for new computers wherever possible. Televisions The use of televisions within commercial businesses is rapidly expanding, but inadequately documented. In addition, the IOUs are providing upstream rebates for television. These rebates may have contributed to recent reductions in the price of this measure and an expansion in recent purchases. Given the upstream nature of these rebates, it is very difficult to determine if the measure is installed in a residential or nonresidential location. The development of the television questions in the telephone and on-site survey forms has been coordinated with WO034. The CSS telephone and on-site surveys will collect information on the incidence and number of televisions within commercial businesses. The on-site survey will collect information on the televisions make and model number, the television s size, age, and features. The survey will also collect information on the television s usage schedule and any connected devices. With these data, it will be possible to develop a better understanding of the current share of businesses with televisions and the density and usage patterns of these televisions. HVAC HVAC measures account for approximately 29% of the electricity usage within commercial businesses, the second highest end-use share. 7 In addition, HVAC measures have been the target of long standing commercial energy efficiency programs and ongoing code changes. These measures also hold a dominant position in the California Strategic Plan. Therefore, these measures are central to the CSS study. The CSS telephone and on-site surveys collect extensive information on HVAC equipment. The on-site data collection effort includes the collection of make and model number, HVAC schedules, age, and condition. The survey will collect both cooling and heating information. 7 The share of HVAC energy use is derived from the CEC CEUS. Itron, Inc. 2-6 Research End Uses, Measures and Segments

15 The on-site survey will collect information on the cooling type, refrigerant type, and number of compressors. The CSS telephone and on-site surveys will also question businesses about their HVAC maintenance practices. The site contact will be questioned about the frequency of maintenance, who performs the maintenance, and if the site participates in utility-sponsored quality maintenance programs. The maintenance questions for the telephone and on-site surveys will be coordinated with WO032 and WO054. Coordination between the CSS/CMST studies and WO032 and WO054 may lead to some short term (one hour) monitoring of select HVAC units. With these data it will be possible to describe the distribution of HVAC equipment in California businesses and the current share of energy efficient climate appropriate equipment. These data will help the IOUs plan future energy efficiency programs and will be used in future energy efficiency potential studies. These data will help to determine the current baseline from which to measure progress toward Market Transformation and Strategic Plan Goals. Refrigeration The CEC CEUS estimated that refrigeration was the third highest energy using end use at 13% of commercial electricity usage. In addition, refrigeration has been the focus of ongoing utility programs, but it is unclear the extent of program penetration across measure types and market segments. The CSS on-site survey will collect extensive information on remote and self-contained refrigeration equipment. For remote refrigeration, the on-site survey collects information on the type and temperature of the case, the defrost control type and the size of the cases. Similar types of data will be collected for walk-ins and preparation areas. The study will collect information on the lighting used in display cases and walk-ins. Collection of data on compressors, condensers, and system controls is also highlighted on the survey forms. For self-contained refrigeration equipment, the surveyors will collect information on service type, size, condition, and year of manufacture. The refrigeration on-site data collection will be focused on business types with extensive refrigeration requirements, including food and liquor stores, restaurants, and refrigerated warehouses. With the data collected during these surveys, it will be possible to describe the current state of refrigeration measures in these three building segments. These data will help the DEER team better understand the current baseline of refrigeration measures, the IOUs plan future programs, and will be used in future energy efficiency potential studies. Itron, Inc. 2-7 Research End Uses, Measures and Segments

16 Program Awareness and Integration The CSS telephone survey will collect information on customer awareness of IOU programs that encourage energy savings. The program awareness and integration questions have been reviewed by the CPUC, the ED consultants, and the Nonresidential Process Evaluation (WO012). The program awareness and integration questions will ask businesses if they are aware of programs designed to reduce their energy bills. Businesses will be asked about their businesses participation in demand response programs and their use of distributed generation. The program awareness questions will determine the number of customers aware of nonresidential audits and will question those sites that have participated in audits, if the audit recommendations integrated multiple forms of demand-side management. The answers to these questions will provide a current baseline for the share of customers who are aware that they can receive an integrated audit and those who have participated in an integrated audit. The telephone survey will also inquire about the site s adoption of distributed generation measures and demand response programs following the audit. The answers to this series of questions will provide a baseline from which to measure progress toward fulfilling Program Performance Metrics associated with integration and integrated nonresidential audits. Energy Management Systems The CSS on-site survey will collect data on energy management systems found on-site. The data collected will indicate the end uses controlled by the system, and the manufacturer and/or service provider. The survey will collect information on the number of points and the number of controllers. The survey will determine if the system is used for demand response and will determine if the demand response implementation methodology is manual, activated through a signal received from a third party, or based on an alternative algorithm. If the EMS system is used for demand response, the survey will ascertain the loads controlled. The surveyor will also request a print out or computer copy of data on the end use operation or control data. The EMS data collected during the on-site data collection will provide the IOUs and the CPUC with a better understanding of the current baseline of EMS usage. This information will be useful for future program planning for energy efficiency and demand response. The data will also be incorporated into future potential studies. Distributed Generation The distributed generation questions incorporated into the CSS on-site data collection instrument are designed to provide the demand-side management community with a baseline of the current distribution of cogeneration, self-generation, solar cells or photovoltaic systems and emergency generators employed in California businesses. The survey will determine if the distributed Itron, Inc. 2-8 Research End Uses, Measures and Segments

17 generation system is primarily an emergency generator or if the system is more consistently used to generate electricity. The survey will record the type of technology, the fuel, number of unit and year of installation. The survey will collect information on make and model number whenever possible. If the system is a co-generation system, information will be collected on the use of the heat generated. The site contact will also be questioned about the site s use of the system to enable demand response. Importantly, distributed generation sites will be questioned about the system s average daily operating hours, number of operating days per year, and the presence of metering equipment. The distributed generation data collected by the CSS survey is not intended to replace the indepth data collection undertaken by the California Solar Initiative (CSI) or the Self Generation Incentive Plan (SGIP). The data collected through the CSS are intended to provide a baseline description of distributed generation equipment currently operating in California businesses. This information will be useful for program planners and will be incorporated into future distributed generation potential studies. Firm Demographics The CSS survey collects extensive information on a wide variety of measures that could be grouped under the heading of firm demographics. First, the telephone and on-site surveys will provide a better understanding of the current distribution of business types within California. The IOU s nonresidential frame includes NAICs codes designed to describe the site s business activity. Coordinating with WO009, the Data Management Work Order, the NAICs codes were mapped to building types appropriate for the CSS and CMST studies. The NAICs to building type classification led to approximately 10% of the usage and 20% of the sites being allocated to building types that are unclassified or those that do not reflect the business activity at the site. 8 The telephone and on-site surveys will redefine these sites into their appropriate building type, providing a better description of the business activities associated with commercial electricity usage in California. The building type distribution will be discussed in more depth in Section 3, Description of the Primary and Secondary Data Sources. The telephone and on-site surveys will collect information on the year the buildings on the site was built, recent remodels, and the year the business was established in the building. The on-site survey will collect information on the meter numbers associated with the building for both electricity and gas usage. This information will be used to check the site aggregation and usage 8 The 10% of usage and 20% of sites that are unclassified do not include miscellaneous sites. Miscellaneous sites are associated with various business activities that lead the site to be designated miscellaneous. Unclassified sites include sites without a NAICs code or with codes that are unclassified. Sites whose NAICs codes do not reflect the business activity at the site are largely property management sites. The property management classification commonly reflects the business activity of the customer paying the utility bill, but does not usually reflect the business activity at the business location. Itron, Inc. 2-9 Research End Uses, Measures and Segments

18 associated with the site. Both the telephone and the on-site surveys will collect information on the business square footage. This information, in combination with the electricity consumption at the business, will be used to calculate the business whole building energy intensity. The surveyors will create a high-level sketch of the site that will describe how the site and its surroundings are configured. Surveyors will be taking multiple pictures of the exterior, and where possible, of high priority measures. Surveyors will collect information on the building shell construction and the windows. They will collect data on the roof, ceiling, and wall construction and the presence of insulation. Glazing and window frame types will be collected for windows, in addition to an estimate of the window-to-wall percentage for each side of the building. Information on skylights will also be recorded. The survey will also collect data on self-reported business and operating schedules. The surveyors will collect information on daily business hours and standard holidays. The business hour data will incorporate seasonal operation schedules. Self-reported hourly operating schedules will also be collected for lighting, televisions and HVAC equipment. Surveyors will ask the site contact about the percent of lighting equipment and television typically on during the stated lighting and television schedules. For HVAC, site contacts will be questioned about the typical set points for both heating and cooling equipment. The extensive collection of information associated with firm demographics will provide the CPUC, evaluation consultants, and the IOUs with a better description of California commercial businesses. Combining this information with the measure specific information collected during the CSS survey will provide this community with information on the distribution of measures and end uses by specific building types and configurations. The ability to analyze the measure specific information by firm demographics will provide more disaggregated information. Section 6 provides more information on output results possible with these data. CSS Business Segments The commercial saturation survey will collect a vast quantity of information on energy consuming measures and firm demographics within commercial businesses. Given the quantity of data collected during this survey, trade-offs associated with the benefits and costs associated with data collection were required. The trade-offs looked at segments surveyed during previous commercial saturation surveys, the cost to collect information from particular segments, the availability of alternative information on segments, and the IOUs desire for segment specific data. The former CEC CEUS surveyed small offices, large offices, restaurants, retail, food and liquor stores, warehouses and refrigerated warehouses, schools, colleges, health care, hotels and motels, and miscellaneous. The cost of surveying large offices, colleges, hotels and motels, and Itron, Inc Research End Uses, Measures and Segments

19 hospitals was found to be high within the former CEC CEUS due to their size, likelihood of multiple buildings on a site, and diversity and complexity within a site. The CPUC, ED consultants, IOUs and the ED contractors discussed the value and costs associated with incorporating alternative segments in the CSS telephone and on-site surveys. Given the relatively low cost of a telephone survey, combined with the overlap between the CSS and CMST telephone survey, the group decided the CSS telephone survey would contact the same segments as the CMST survey. Therefore, the CSS telephone survey will collect information from the nonresidential frame other than those classified as agricultural, street lighting, mining, and TCU. The CSS and CMST telephone survey is designed as a single survey fielded to a large share of the nonresidential population. The telephone survey development will be further discussed in Section 5: Survey Development. The CSS on-site survey will collect information from a sub-set of sites included in the telephone survey. Given the cost of collecting data from larger, more complicated and diverse sites, the CSS on-site data collection effort will not include industrial sites, colleges, hotels and motels or hospitals. While the cost of collecting data from large offices is high, the group determined that the benefits were higher. The collection of data within large offices, however, may be more limited than in other segments. Itron, Inc Research End Uses, Measures and Segments

20 3 Data Sources This section of the Plan outlines the key data sources incorporated into the research. The data described will include the input data sources, how these data are combined, and the data sources that will be collected during the studies. 3.1 Key Input Data Sources The key input data sources used for the CMST end-users study and the CSS are the IOU nonresidential customer information systems (CIS), the IOU billing data, and the IOU program tracking datasets. Key input data sources for the CMST supply-side study will include lists of lighting and HVAC contractors and distributors. The CMST study will interview both program participant and nonparticipant supply-side actors where possible. The CMST study will coordinate with WO017, WO029, WO032, and WO054 to develop contact lists, surveys and for survey implementation. Nonresidential Site Development The first step in the data development of these research projects was the development of nonresidential sites. The nonresidential site development was largely undertaken as part of Data Management Work Order (WO009). The nonresidential customer information, meter, and account level data were reviewed and nonresidential sites have been developed using electricity billing information. 9 Itron developed algorithms to aggregating account and meter level information into nonresidential sites. These algorithms underwent extensive review and refinement under WO009. The site development that will be used for the CSS and CMST studies is based on data from PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E s electric account information. Gas data will also need to be assembled for study participants. Combining the gas and electric data for SDG&E and PG&E dual fuel customers is relatively straight forward. Aligning the electric and gas accounts for 9 The frame for the study is the IOU electric billing data. Participation in the study will be offered to LADWP and SMUD. The gas usage for SCG customers will be matched to the electrical usage following participation in the on-site survey. Itron, Inc. 3-1 Data Sources

21 customers who do not receive both fuels from a single utility, however, requires considerably more effort. WO024 will assemble the data needed to develop the gas and electric site information of customers receiving gas and electricity from two utilities for on-site participants in the CSS. Building Type Classification Under Task 3 of the CSS/CMST studies, the team reviewed with the DEER team, the evaluation teams, IOUs, and the CEC the desired building type categories to be used to develop the sample design. Itron collected NAICS code mappings from the CEC, IOUs, DEER, and evaluation teams. The NAICS code mappings were reviewed for consistency. The CSS/CMST team reviewed the mappings based on the purpose of these studies. The review was completed using a hierarchy based on the share of the IOU nonresidential frame associated with each code. The codes were sorted from largest to smallest based on the kwh usage. The team reviewed the NAICs to building type mappings for the codes that represent the largest 95% of the classified nonresidential frame. The team produced tables describing where the different mappings agree, where they disagreed and the CSS s final mapping designation. The team reviewed the mappings with the CPUC, CPUC consultants, and the IOUs. NAICS code disagreements were discussed within the study group, with the group deciding on the final mapping and the eligibility of the code for participation in the CSS and CMST surveys. For the remaining 5% of the frame, the Itron team reviewed mappings within two digit NAICS codes and commonly used the CEC s mapping where the CEC has mapped the NAICS. If the CEC has not mapped the NAICS and SDG&E has mapped the code, the team will use SDG&E s mapping. 10 NAICS codes are attached to individual accounts in the IOU nonresidential frames. During the site development, multiple individual accounts may be aggregated into a single commercial site. If the NAICS codes across the individual accounts lead the site to be incorporated into multiple building categories, the building classification algorithm uses the dominant building category based on the account level electricity usage. The nonresidential frame, augmented with defined business types and program participation flags, forms the input data basis for these two nonresidential population surveys. Table 3-1 lists the total number of sites and the total usage by business type as developed under WO009 and Task 3 of the CSS/CMST studies. The site development process led to over 1.2 million sites consuming over 116,000,000 MWh of electricity in The most populous business types are miscellaneous, unclassified, and agricultural sites. The industrial segment uses substantially more electricity than any other business type. The distribution of usage and sites will be further discussed in Section 4, Research Sample Design. 10 The CSS/CMST review of the different NAICs to building type mappings has found that the research team most often agrees with the CEC mapping when the mappings from the different sources were inconsistent. SDG&E is the only IOU to provide the CSS team with NAICs to building type mapping. Itron, Inc. 3-2 Data Sources

22 The distribution of business types incorporated into Table 3-1 includes those business types that are in neither the CMST nor the CSS studies. The business types not included in either study are label as Not in Study in the table. The Not in Study business types are the only business types excluded from the CMST study. The CSS study excludes the Not in Study business types and hospitals, hotels, industrial sites, and colleges. See Section 2 above for a discussion of the business types included in each study. Table 3-1: Nonresidential Population by Business Type CSS/CMST NAICS Business Type Total Number of Sites Total Usage 2010, MWh College 1,563 1,817,479 Food/Liquor 24,824 6,225,206 Health Care - Care 3, ,914 Health Care - Hospital 1,112 2,988,220 Health Care - Med Office 37,256 1,895,539 Hotel 7,354 2,656,040 Industrial 40,730 22,455,634 Misc 150,125 9,331,060 Misc - Assembly 20, ,195 Misc - Res Common 64,165 1,258,139 Office 131,018 9,396,935 Property Managers 66,459 7,860,483 Restaurant 64,858 6,012,116 Retail 77,522 7,731,583 School 12,128 3,380,157 Warehouse 37,936 4,061,992 Unclassified 14, ,800 Undefined 168,075 2,944,952 Not in Study 5,533 1,038,524 Not in Study - Agriculture 130,922 9,019,772 Not in Study - Mining 14,901 3,740,655 Not in Study - Street Light 47, ,831 Not in Study - TCU 99,134 9,924,256 Total 1,222, ,167,482 Eligible for Telephone Survey 923,803 91,876,443 Eligible for CSS 873,044 61,959,071 Program Tracking Data Under WO009 the program tracking data has been integrated with the nonresidential site information. The energy efficiency program tracking data integration incorporates flags indicating that a site has participated in particular programs, the work order associated with the program participation, and flags by end use and measure group. These flags and information Itron, Inc. 3-3 Data Sources