Integration with the Global Economy: The Turkish Case. Erol Taymaz and Kamil Yilmaz
|
|
- Herbert Walters
- 8 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Integration with the Global Economy: The Turkish Case Erol Taymaz and Kamil Yilmaz Middle East Technical University - Koc University Commission on Growth and Development Workshop on Country Case Studies April 12-14, 2007
2 Turkey s Integration with the Global Economy Policy background Macroeconomic background Performance of the automotive and consumer electronics industries Performance of the automotive and consumer electronics firms Macroeconomic policies and growth performance Political Economy of Reform
3 Policy background Annual growth rate of GDP per capital, (5-year moving averages) 10 5 Annual growth rate (%)
4 Policy background : Export orientation and elimination of quantitative restrictions : Foreign trade liberalization 1989: Capital market liberalization : Changes in FDI legislation 1996: Customs Union with the EU 1999: EU candidate country : Military rule 1987: Elections and civilian government
5 Macroeconomic background Inflation rate, Inflation rate (%)
6 Dramatic improvement in net public savings
7 Sharp decline in interest rates 80 Secondary Market Real and Nominal Interest Rates (%) Re al* Nom inal Jan-02 Aug-02 M ar-03 Oct-03 M ay-04 Dec-04 Jul-05 Feb-06 Sep-06 *(1 + nominal secondary market rate)/(1+12-month ahead inflationary expectation)
8 Macroeconomic background Reel effective exchange rate, Index value (1995=100)
9 An impressive growth rebound Annual growth rate of real gross domestic product,
10 External Trade Growth rates of exports and imports ( ), manufactured products Annual growth rates (%) Exports Imports
11 How did this happen? Reforms and what we ve learnt the hard way -- started paying off (e.g., banking reforms, adopting a flexible exchange rate, sticking to fiscal adjustment) A very benign international environment for emerging markets (e.g., easy monetary policy in the US, the China effect, strong growth in the world economy overall, low interest rates in advanced countries, etc.) A very pragmatic government that, despite some hesitation at the beginnings, has gotten on the right path, namely sticking to EU membership goal and the IMF program
12 Two side effects emerged, though... High current account deficit and ext. debt ratios (adjusting, but still a key vulnerability)
13 High rate of unemployment (good job growth since the crisis, but not enough )
14 Now we have two major challenges... Turkey is still a vulnerable economy: Relatively high debt ratios public and external combined with a large current account deficit. But, we need to grow 6%-7% p.a. (against a population growth of around 1.5%) to catch up with the EU. How do we do this while reducing these vulnerabilities? And, inflation seems stuck at high single digits How do we get to price stability, i.e. 2%-3% inflation?
15 One possible answer: Combine openness, financial soundness (i.e. what we have), with supply-side reforms, or further, major improvements in the quality of institutions (i.e. what we have yet to have) But, given this year s politics, this is basically a job for the next government...
16 Growth Industries 1980s: Labor intensive, low tech Textiles and Ready-made garments Iron & Steel Late 1990s and 2000s ICT- Consumer Electronics Automotive
17 ICT industries Production Components Consumer Electronics 1,297 1,365 13,850 1,922 2,411 4,294 4,726 Telecom. Equipment ,250 Other Prof. Instruments Defense Electronics Computers Total 3,008 3,180 3,034 3,784 4,378 7,005 8,151
18 ICT industries Exports Components Consumer Electronics ,571 1,938 2,914 3,084 Telecom. Equipment Other Prof. Instruments Defense Electronics Computers Total 1,446 1,542 1,697 2,412 2,833 4,029 4,445
19 ICT industries Imports Components 958 1,146 1,038 1,417 1,735 2,310 1,990 Consumer Electronics ,057 Telecom. Equipment 2,002 2, ,097 1,911 2,330 Other Prof. Instruments ,261 2,183 3,172 Computers 1,173 1, ,336 1,545 2,286 Total 5,451 6,577 4,119 4,439 6,045 8,940 10,835
20 Consumer electronics Imports (1000 USD) Exports (1000 USD) Colour TV ,540 1,879 2,789 2,949 Audio Equipment Video Players Cash Registers Electronic Calculators Audio Video Casettes Radio and TV antenna trans Electronic scales and equ Total ,057 1,571 1,938 2,913 3,084
21 Industrial Production Index 450 Manufacturing Cons. electronics Automotive
22 Exports Automotive (%) Cons. elect. (%) Manufacturing exports (bil.usd) % share in manufacturing exports Billion USD
23 Automotive: Production, Dom. sales, Exports 1200 Total production Domestic sales
24 Labor Productivity (per worker) 300 Manuf acturing Cons. electronics Automotive
25 Total factor productivity ( imputed) 2.8 Automotive Cons. Electronics Series2 Series4 2.6 total factor productivity (1989=1)
26 Performance, firms Employees X rate M rate F/D Automotive Anadolu Isuzu F Ford Otosan F Karsan Otomotiv D Otokar D Tofaş Oto Fab F Parts and components Bosch Fren Sistemleri F Ditaş Doğan D Ege Endüstri D F-M İzmit Piston D Mutlu Akü D Parsan D Consumer electronics Arçelik D Beko elektronik D Vestel D
27 Performance, firms Net sales, million YTL (1993 prices) Net sales Isuzu Ford Otosan Karsan Otokar Tofaş Arçelik Beko Vestel Bosch Ditaş Ege Endüstri F-M Mutlu Parsan
28 Performance, firms Export rate, Export rate Isuzu Ford Otosan Karsan Otokar Tofaş Arçelik Beko Vestel Bosch Ditaş Ege Endüstri F-M Mutlu Parsan
29 Performance, firms Gross profit margin, (gross operating profit/net sales) Percent Isuzu Ford Otosan Karsan Otokar Tofaş Arçelik Beko Vestel Bosch Ditaş Ege Endüstri F-M Mutlu Parsan Average
30 Performance, firms Net profit margin, (net profit after taxes/net sales) Net profit margin Isuzu Ford Otosan Karsan Otokar Tofaş Arçelik Beko Vestel Bosch Ditaş Ege Endüstri F-M Mutlu Parsan Average
31 Macroeconomic policies and growth Automotive Well integrated within the international commodity chains Multinational firms, both in the final product and parts & components sectors Strong industrial base/strong supplier base Strong supplier-user links Fast adaptation to the EU rules and regulations Automotive Manufacturers Association Commitment to design and high quality (especially in the commerical vehicles)
32 Macroeconomic policies and growth Consumer electronics Dominated by a few large domestic firms Right time, right place, right product (conventional televisions) Reliance on on-the-shelf components Weak domestic supplier industries
33 Macroeconomic policies and growth The role of macroeconomic policies is questionable In the 1990s macroeconomic environment is inhibiting investment and growth Despite this, these two sectors grew rapidly through exports (to EU) Already existing private industrial base Customs Union with the EU in 1996 EU s December 2004 decision to start membership negotiations with Turkey
34 Political Economy of Reform Once the political incentives and constraints are correctly taken into account, policies that appear to be mistakes are perfectly rational responses to distorted and imperfect political incentives. The political economy approach attempts to explain why apparent mistakes repeatedly occur. This approach underscores that one cannot correct the "mistakes" without addressing the institutional features which make these so-called mistakes likely to occur. Alberto Alesina.
35 Elites versus Civil Society Strong state founded and later captured by military/civil bureaucratic elites Political Elites - As democracy takes a hold shares power and later dominates 1982 Constitution, Political party and Election Laws made it even more difficult for the civil society to control the political elites Political party and election laws give too much power to party headquarters and the leadership
36 Political Economy of Reform Each political party is captured by a group of political elites who are involved in Patronage, Populism, Rent seeking Once captured never leave the party leadership to opposition The failure of Turkish political parties to replace unsuccessful cadres with potentially successful alternatives No room for within-party opposition A plethore of political parties established In each election another party is given the chance
37 General Elections since RP 7.2% MHP 2.9% DYP 19.1% DSP 8.5% SHP 24.7% Bağ. 0.4% Diğer 0.8% ANAP 36.3% 1991 RP 16.9% MHP 0.0% DYP 27.0% ANAP 24.0% DSP 10.8% SHP 20.8% Diğer 0.4% Bağ. 0.1% 1995 RP 21.4% MHP 8.2% DYP 19.1% ANAP 19.7% DSP 14.6% CHP 10.7% Bağ. 0.5% Diğer 1.6% HADEP 4.2% 1999 FP 15.4% MHP 18.0% DYP 12.0% ANAP 13.2% DSP 22.2% CHP 8.7% HADEP 4.7% Diğer 4.9% Bağ. 0.9% 2002 AKP 34.3% Genc 7.2% MHP 8.3% DYP 9.6% CHP 19.4% DEHAP 6.2% Diğer 5.1% Bağ. 1.1% SP 2.5% DSP 1.2% ANAP 5.1%
38 Institutional Reform Without political reforms that will overhaul the top-tobottom power structure in political parties, the political system will not function properly to create an environment suitable for sustain economic growth. Political party and election laws must be changed immediately so that members and delegates of the party can replace proven unsuccesful leaders by promising candidates. Political parties will become the pillars of the democracy and last long rather than disappear in a decade or so. If not, the current and future governments will continue to resort to populist policies and the use of state funds in order to be reelected in This in turn means that we are back to square one...
39 Thanks...
II. Measuring and Analyzing GDP
A Macroeconomic Perspective on the Real Sector: Growth, Economic Fluctuations and Inflation Workshop for Staff of Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar June 2 3, 2014
More informationPortugal s Adjustment Program: Where are We?
Portugal s Adjustment Program: Where are We? Albert Jaeger International Monetary Fund Presentation: Austrian Business Circle Lisbon, January 24, 2014 Overview Looking back: Four questions Growth and unemployment:
More information3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum
3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum Ilan Goldfajn Chief Economist, Itaú Unibanco Partner, Itaú BBA August 30 th, 2012 In Brief World: consolidating a scenario of low growth. Slow recovery in the
More informationGreek banks and corporate funding costs
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE Greek banks and corporate funding costs January 214 Paul Mylonas CRO & Chief Economist National Bank of Greece NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT Economic Analysis Department Roadmap
More informationEstonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts
Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts Estonia has had a quick recovery from the recent recession and its economy is in better shape than before the crisis. It is now much leaner and significantly
More informationCESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 November 4, 214 Key Developments in BIS Banks External Positions and Domestic Credit In 214:Q2, BIS reporting banks reduced their external positions to CESEE countries
More informationCZECH ECONOMY CZECH ECONOMY. Ing. Jaroslav Vomastek Director of the Department of Economic Analysis
1 Overview of the Czech Economy GDP Employment Balance of Payments FDIs Balance of Budget Industry Foreign Trade 2 Main Characteristics of the Czech Economy High economic growth until mid 2008 catching
More information11-1. Framework of Analysis. Global Economic Considerations. Figure 12.1 Change in Real Exchange Rate: Dollar Versus Major Currencies.
Framework of Analysis CHAPTER 12 Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis Fundamental Analysis Approach to Fundamental Analysis Domestic and global economic analysis Industry analysis Company analysis Why use
More informationMACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MAY 20 Koç Holding CONTENTS Global Economy... 3 Global Financial Markets... 3 Global Economic Growth Forecasts... 3 Turkey Macroeconomic Indicators... Economic Growth... Industrial
More informationForecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014
Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: xsli@cass.org.cn
More informationProject LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia
Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University
More informationCurrent Account Deficit Dynamics: Different This Time? Sarp Kalkan Economic Policy Analyst
Current Account Deficit Dynamics: Different This Time? Sarp Kalkan Economic Policy Analyst TEPAV Evaluation Note February 2011 Current Account Deficit Dynamics Along with the rapid economic recovery, current
More informationMeeting with Analysts
CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast
More informationHow To Be Cheerful About 2012
2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? Bart Van Craeynest Hoofdeconoom Petercam Bart.vancraeynest@petercam.be 1 2012: crises looking for answers Global slowdown No 2008-0909 rerun Crises
More informationEconomic Overview. East Asia managed to weather the global recession by relying on export-oriented
Economic Overview Economic growth remains strong in East Asia and retains healthy momentum thanks to strong commodity prices and increases in exports. leads the region in growth and its GDP is expected
More informationDEVELOPMENTS IN 1990 s
MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT WITH OPEN CAPITAL ACCOUNTS: THE TURKISH CASE FAIK OZTRAK Director TUSIAD-Koc University, Economic Research Forum HIGH LEVEL SEMINAR ON CRISIS PREVENTION, SINGAPORE, JULY 1, 26
More informationLazard EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY
FEATURING Lazard EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY Currently, emerging-markets equities (as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index) have generated higher financial productivity and carry an almost 20 percent
More informationThe Macroeconomic Situation and Monetary Policy in Russia. Ladies and Gentlemen,
The Money and Banking Conference Monetary Policy under Uncertainty Dr. Sergey Ignatiev Chairman of the Bank of Russia (The 4 th of June 2007, Central Bank of Argentina, Buenos Aires) The Macroeconomic
More information2 0 0 0 E D I T I O N CLEP O F F I C I A L S T U D Y G U I D E. The College Board. College Level Examination Program
2 0 0 0 E D I T I O N CLEP O F F I C I A L S T U D Y G U I D E College Level Examination Program The College Board Principles of Macroeconomics Description of the Examination The Subject Examination in
More informationIntegrated Financial Plan FY2012
Integrated Financial FY Delivering The new reality The fiscal year Integrated Financial (IFP) has an Operating with a projected Operating Loss of $3.0 billion, versus a loss of $2.2 billion in, despite
More informationMonetary Policy and Mortgage Interest rates
Monetary Policy and Mortgage Interest rates July 2014 Key Points: Monetary policy, which operates through changes in the official cash rate (OCR), is the main lever of macroeconomic management in Australia
More informationINVESTING IN TURKEY THE NEW INVESTMENT INCENTIVE SYSTEM
INVESTING IN TURKEY THE NEW INVESTMENT INCENTIVE SYSTEM Warsaw, February 2013 New Program Policy Orientation The year 2023 would be the centenary of Turkish Republic s establishment. Therefore we set up
More informationGlobalization and International Trade
12 Globalization and International Trade Globalization refers to the growing interdependence of countries resulting from the increasing integration of trade, finance, people, and ideas in one global marketplace.
More informationTaking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness, but rapid growth is a concern
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness,
More informationThe Future Growth of Stocks and Investments in Thailand
35 th Bangkok International Motor Show 2014 The Future Growth of Stocks and Investments in Thailand Mr. Charamporn Jotikasthira President The Stock Exchange of Thailand March 2014 I. SET: Overview The
More informationGhana's Economic Performance 2010
GHANA STATISTICAL SERVICE (GSS) Statistics for Development and Progress Ghana's Economic Performance 21 i n f i g u r e s P.O. Box GP 198, Accra www. statsghana.gov.gh 211 Ghana's Economic Performance
More informationHaiti s Economic Development since 2004/05 and Macroeconomic Outlook
Haiti s Economic Development since 2004/05 and Macroeconomic Outlook By Ugo Fasano Former IMF Resident Representative in Haiti the American-Haitian Chamber of Commerce Port-au-Prince, July 1, 2009 Plan
More informationOil & Gas Market Outlook. 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016
Oil & Gas Market Outlook 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016 Challenging Market Environment Concerns that global economic growth will slow and reduce global oil and natural
More informationReducing public debt: Turkey
Reducing public debt: Turkey Abstract Turkey halved the ratio of public debt to GDP from almost 80 percent in 2001 to less than 40 percent before the global crisis of 2009. Several factors helped. First,
More informationISSUES PAKISTAN'S ECONOMY S. AKBAR ZAIDI SECOND EDITION REVISED AND EXPANDED OXTORD UNIVERSITY PRESS
ISSUES IN PAKISTAN'S ECONOMY SECOND EDITION REVISED AND EXPANDED S. AKBAR ZAIDI OXTORD UNIVERSITY PRESS Preface to the Second Edition Preface to the First E d i t i o n.... Introduction Chapter 1 Assessing
More informationConférence «Accords transnationaux d entreprise» «Transnational Company Agreements» Conference
Conférence «Accords transnationaux d entreprise» «Transnational Company Agreements» Conference 13-14 novembre 2008-13th -14th Novembre 2008 Centre des Congrès, Lyon TURKEY AS A NEW ACTOR ENTERING THE TRANSNATIONAL
More informationS&P 500 Composite (Adjusted for Inflation)
12/31/1820 03/31/1824 06/30/1827 09/30/1830 12/31/1833 03/31/1837 06/30/1840 09/30/1843 12/31/1846 03/31/1850 06/30/1853 09/30/1856 12/31/1859 03/31/1863 06/30/1866 09/30/1869 12/31/1872 03/31/1876 06/30/1879
More informationFISCAL POLICY: HAS BRAZIL GRADUATED FROM PRO- CYCLICAL POLICIES? Marcio Holland Secretary of Economic Policy Ministry of Finance, Brazil
FISCAL POLICY: HAS BRAZIL GRADUATED FROM PRO- CYCLICAL POLICIES? Marcio Holland Secretary of Economic Policy Ministry of Finance, Brazil XXXIX Meeting of the Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries
More informationPossible Implications of Russia's Sanctions on Turkish Economy
Possible Implications of Russia's Sanctions on Turkish Economy December 2015 Eren Demir Assistant Economist Economic Research Division 1 After a Russian warplane violated Turkish airspace near the Syrian
More informationCONTENTS MODULE 1: INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 4 MODULE 2: ETHICS AND REGULATION 6 MODULE 3: INPUTS AND TOOLS 8 MODULE 4: INVESTMENT INSTRUMENTS 12
SYLLABUS OVERVIEW 1 CONTENTS MODULE 1: INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 4 CHAPTER 1 The Investment Industry: A Top-Down View MODULE 2: ETHICS AND REGULATION 6 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3 Ethics and Investment Professionalism
More informationMexico s dilemma: rising exports, low value-added
Mexico s dilemma: rising exports, low value-added China-Mexico trade gap around $14 billion Both have growing IT exports, but Mexico imports about 90% of the intermediate inputs, as opposed to China s
More informationBANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the
BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information September 7, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the General interest rate for September
More informationSIERRA LEONE UPDATES FROM THE INSTANBUL PRIORITY AREAS OF ACTION
SIERRA LEONE UPDATES FROM THE INSTANBUL PRIORITY AREAS OF ACTION 1 OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION Recent Developments Istanbul Priority Areas of Action Poverty Levels Agenda for Prosperity Challenges Conclusion
More informationChapter 17. Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention. Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.
Chapter 17 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention Slide 17-1 Chapter 17 Learning Goals How a central bank must manage monetary policy so as to fix its currency's value in the foreign exchange
More informationRecent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy Credit Suisse, 2016 Macro Conference April 19, 2016
Credit Suisse, Macro Conference April 19, Outline 1 Inflation and Monetary Policy 2 Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy 3 Final Remarks 2 In line with its constitutional mandate, the
More informationEconomic Outlook for Europe and Finland
Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Finnish-British Chamber of Commerce 15 March 213 Seppo Honkapohja Member of the Board Bank of Finland 1 World economy: World industrial output improved, but international
More informationUPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT
1 Oct 213 Macro & Strategy Equity Credit Commodities 13 13 #1 Global Strategy #1 Multi Asset Research #3 Global Economics #2 Equity Quant #2 Index Analysis #3 SRI Research 12 sector teams in the Top 1
More informationAhmet CAMCI Sel ÖZCAN. Cansu KUŞ Suna YILDIZ Cansu YILDIZ Seyfettin ZÜMRÜT. Sefa ŞEN Cemil ŞİMŞEK Emrah YARIMOĞLU
Ahmet CAMCI Sel ÖZCAN Cansu KUŞ Suna YILDIZ Cansu YILDIZ Seyfettin ZÜMRÜT Sefa ŞEN Cemil ŞİMŞEK Emrah YARIMOĞLU 7 billion $ turnover and 23,000 employees White Goods Textile Energy Electronics Real Estate
More informationThe Mexican Economy: Facts and Opportunities
Manuel Sánchez Santander Global Fixed Income Summit London, England, September 20, 2012 Contents 1 Structural features 2 Recent developments and outlook 3 Inflation and monetary policy 4 Economic challenges
More informationMeeting with Analysts
CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report IV/) Meeting with Analysts Tibor Hlédik Prague, 7 November, Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast
More informationSCENARIO planning Building scenarios at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
SCENARIO planning Building scenarios at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants August 2013 1 Contents Page A. Strategy development today Why scenario planning is important now 3 B. The Roland Berger-HHL scenario
More informationCountry update TURKEY
Summary Slower growth in the second quarter helped calm the economy, thereby reducing the risk of overheating. Still, wide current account and trade deficits are a major source of concern. In 211, we expect
More informationBrazil Economic Overview
Brazil Economic Overview New York Alexandre Tombini Governor February 2013 1 Macroeconomic Policy and Social Development Macroeconomic fundamentals, combined with adequate prudential policies and strong
More informationTOFAŞ 2009 Q1ANALYST PRESENTATION
TOFAŞ 2009 Q1ANALYST PRESENTATION Agenda 2009 Q1 Performance Highlights Market Outlook Domestic Market & Tofaş Domestic Sales Market Share Exports Performance Sales Capacity Utilization Financial Results
More informationAustralia-Mexico Infrastructure Finance Forum 2016
RECENT REFORMS GOVERNING AFORES INVESTMENTS Australia-Mexico Infrastructure Finance Forum 2016 Carlos Ramírez Fuentes TW: @CarlosRamirezF contents I. Introduction II. Why should pension funds invest in
More informationSustainable Development Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030
Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030 Nihal El Megharbel, PhD First Assistant to the Minister of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform Workshop on National Development Strategies
More informationPart F. Reforms in Pensions and in the Taxation of the Capital Market. 1. The Pension Reform
Part F 1. The Pension Reform Reforms in Pensions and in the Taxation of the Capital Market In May 2003, the Knesset approved a comprehensive reform in pension funds, under which their investment terms
More informationBest Essay from a First Year Student
RBA ECONOMICS COMPETITION 2010 Appreciation of Australia s real exchange rate: causes and effects Best Essay from a First Year Student ASHVINI RAVIMOHAN The University of New South Wales Appreciation of
More informationCaucasus and Central Asia: Oil Price Decline and Regional Spillovers Darken the Outlook
Caucasus and Central Asia: Oil Price Decline and Regional Spillovers Darken the Outlook Economic activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) will continue to decelerate in 215 mainly as a consequence
More informationCountry Background Sri Lanka. Investor-Country Conference Cairo, Egypt March 26-27, 2010
Country Background Sri Lanka Investor-Country Conference Cairo, Egypt March 26-27, 2010 Macro Economic data 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 GDP growth 6.0 (1.5) 4.0 5.9 5.4 6.2 7.7 6.8 6.0
More informationMACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS
MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS BUSINESS ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION To determine a proper price for a firm s stock, security analyst must forecast the dividend & earnings that can be expected
More informationSpain Economic Outlook. Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015
Spain Economic Outlook Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015 The outlook one year ago: the risks were to the upside for
More informationThe objective of this course is to obtain a basic understanding of calculus the mathematical technique most frequently used in business and economics.
Course Descriptions Mathematics The objective of this course is to obtain a basic understanding of calculus the mathematical technique most frequently used in business and economics. Micro/Macro Economics
More informationHow To Understand Current Account Balance In Armenia
CURRENT ACCOUNT: THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS Prepared by Armenuhi Burnazyan and Arevik Aleksanyan In our project we tried to analyze Current Account (CA) balance trends for Armenia, Georgia and
More informationThe global economy in 2007
Introduction The global economy in 27 Global output grew 3.8 percent in 27, receding slightly from 4 percent in 26. The downturn was greatest in high-income economies, where growth fell from 3 percent
More informationEmerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016
Emerging Opportunities and Growth Prospects in the Indonesian Travel Intermediaries Industry, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 BRICdata John Carpenter House 7 Carmelite Street London EC4Y 0BS United Kingdom
More informationNATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES OF UKRAINE
NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES OF UKRAINE Ukrainian agricultural products competitiveness on European market in time of financial challenges Sergey Grygoryev Contents: Part 1. Trade
More informationBoard of Directors Report
10 KOÇ HOLDİNG ANNUAL REPORT Board of Directors Report Esteemed Shareholders, Welcome to Koç Holding s 51 st General Assembly Meeting. We hereby present for your evaluation Koç Holding s Annual Report.
More informationEconomic 360 for Indonesia: Growth Prospects and Emerging Opportunities in the ICT Industry
Economic 360 for Indonesia: Growth Prospects and Emerging Opportunities in the ICT Industry Indonesia s ICT Industry Decoded: Hardware, Software, and Telecom to Propel Growth April 2012 Contents Executive
More informationTreasury Presentation to TBAC
Treasury Presentation to TBAC Office of Debt Management Fiscal Year 2015 Q1 Report Table of Contents I. Fiscal II. A. Quarterly Tax Receipts p. 4 B. Monthly Receipt Levels p. 5 C. Eleven Largest Outlays
More informationThe EMU and the debt crisis
The EMU and the debt crisis MONETARY POLICY REPORT FEBRUARY 212 43 The debt crisis in Europe is not only of concern to the individual debt-ridden countries; it has also developed into a crisis for the
More informationConsumer prices and the money supply
Consumer prices and the money supply Annual rise. Per cent. -year moving average Money supply Consumer prices - - 9 9 9 96 98 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen.
More informationDirectors Review. Domestic Economy
Directors Review On behalf of the Board of Directors, I am pleased to present the condensed interim unconsolidated financial statements for the half year ended June 30, 2015. Domestic Economy Pakistan
More informationSupplemental Unit 5: Fiscal Policy and Budget Deficits
1 Supplemental Unit 5: Fiscal Policy and Budget Deficits Fiscal and monetary policies are the two major tools available to policy makers to alter total demand, output, and employment. This feature will
More informationThe Impact of the Financial Crisis on Developing Countries. Justin Yifu Lin Senior Vice President & Chief Economist, The World Bank
The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Developing Countries Justin Yifu Lin Senior Vice President & Chief Economist, The World Bank Outline Why was the global economy so dynamic in 2002-07? Why has that
More informationWhy Has Japan Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession?
IMF STAFF POSITION NOTE March 18, 9 SPN/9/5 Why Has Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession? Martin Sommer I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Why Has Been Hit
More informationRepublic of Tajikistan: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis
February 2006 Republic of Tajikistan: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis Tajikistan s risk of debt distress is moderate. Under the baseline scenario, all the external debt burden indicators are
More informationMonetary Policy in the Post Crisis Period: The Turkish Perspective
Monetary Policy in the Post Crisis Period: The Turkish Perspective Hakan Kara Economic Research Forum Conference İstanbul April 19, 2013 Outline 1. Motivation of the New Policy Framework 2. New Instruments
More informationBrazil Economic Overview
Brazil Economic Overview Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce of Florida Alexandre Tombini Governor March 26, 2012 1 Brazil Brazil is among the largest countries in terms of territory, population and
More informationConsultatio Asset Management
Consultatio Views View Macro Argentina View Badlar View FX SPOT View BCS Current government s legacy 2 View Macro Argentina: Macro Equation G + C + I + (X-M) = GDP (X-M) = GDP G C I Balance of Payments
More informationTurkish Leasing Market: Latest Developments and Prospects
Turkish Leasing Market: Latest Developments and Prospects Bülent Tasar Chairman Turkish Leasing Association (FIDER) Managing Director - Siemens Finansal Kiralama A.S. - Turkey Turkish Leasing Market: Latest
More informationWHY IS THE FISCAL POLICY IMPOSED BY IMF PRO-CYCLIC?
WHY IS THE FISCAL POLICY IMPOSED BY IMF PRO-CYCLIC? Marinaş Marius-Corneliu Academy of Economic Studies, Department of Economics, Bucharest marinasmarius@yahoo.fr Telephone: 0721/32.62.97 The economies
More informationEvolution of informal employment in the Dominican Republic
NOTES O N FORMALIZATION Evolution of informal employment in the Dominican Republic According to official estimates, between 2005 and 2010, informal employment fell from 58,6% to 47,9% as a proportion of
More informationName: Date: 3. Variables that a model tries to explain are called: A. endogenous. B. exogenous. C. market clearing. D. fixed.
Name: Date: 1 A measure of how fast prices are rising is called the: A growth rate of real GDP B inflation rate C unemployment rate D market-clearing rate 2 Compared with a recession, real GDP during a
More informationGolden Ocean Group Limited Q3 2006 results December 1, 2006
Golden Ocean Group Limited Q3 2006 results December 1, 2006 PROFIT & LOSS 2005 2006 (in thousands of $) 2006 2005 2005 Jul-Sep Jul-Sep Jan - Sep Jan - Sep Jan - Dec Operating Revenues 26,265 66,431 Time
More informationAT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015
AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015 Product Support Matrix Following is the Product Support Matrix for the AT&T Global Network Client. See the AT&T Global Network
More informationIndex. Copyright material from - licensed to npg - PalgraveConnect - 2016-09-16
Index AMIA (Mexican Association of the Automotive Industry), 90, 108 automobile demand ageing of population, 9 emerging economies, 206 7 financing, 8 post-recession, 1 2 role of income distribution and
More informationChanges to China s Renminbi Exchange Rate. Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Changes to China s Renminbi Exchange Rate Wednesday, August 12, 2015 WHAT HAVE CHINESE POLICY MAKERS DONE IN REGARD TO SETTING THEIR EXCHANGE RATE? Each day at 9.15am in Beijing the People s Bank of China
More informationA Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off
A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary February 2013 Christian@harbourasset.co.nz +64 4 460 8309 Just like 2011 and 2012, the start of a new year has again prompted
More informationECONOMIC ANALYSIS (Republic of the Marshall Islands: Public Sector Program)
Public Sector Program (RRP RMI 43321-1) A. Summary ECONOMIC ANALYSIS (Republic of the Marshall Islands: Public Sector Program) 1. The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) gross domestic product (GDP)
More information5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis
5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5.1 Comparison with the Previous Macroeconomic Scenario The differences between the macroeconomic scenarios of the current
More informationMonetary Policy Outlook in a Negative Rates Environment Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar
Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 15 April 2016 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Macroeconomic Policy in Mexico 3 Evolution and Outlook
More informationEUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the
More informationPortugal: restoring credibility and confidence
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS Portugal: restoring credibility and confidence London School of Economics and Political Science Vitor Gaspar February 1, 2012 MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 1 Outline 1. On the way to
More informationSmall Business Credit Guarantee Corporation Thailand. Miss Yanee Ruamragsa
Workshop on SME Credit Guarantee Systems in Asia-Pacific Region ( June 16 18 2010, Hangzhou, P.R. China ) Small Business Credit Guarantee Corporation Thailand Miss Yanee Ruamragsa Mr. Siripong i Pansanit
More informationImpact of Global Financial Crisis on South Asia
Impact of Global Financial Crisis on South Asia February 17, 2009 - The global financial crisis hit South Asia at a time when it had barely recovered from severe terms of trade shock resulting from the
More informationSpecifics of national debt management and its consequences for the Ukrainian economy
Anatoliy Yepifanov (Ukraine), Vyacheslav Plastun (Ukraine) Specifics of national debt management and its consequences for the Ukrainian economy Abstract This article is about the specifics of the national
More informationManaging Systemic Banking Crises. David S. Hoelscher Assistant Director Money and Credit Markets Department
Managing Systemic Banking Crises David S. Hoelscher Assistant Director Money and Credit Markets Department 2 Introduction Systemic banking crises of unprecedented scale: Argentina, East Asia, Ecuador,
More informationEconomy, Capital Markets & Strategy
Sébastien Mc Mahon, CFA Economist Member, Asset Mix Committee Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy 2014 National Business Conference October 2014 1 October 23, 2014 Disclaimer Opinions expressed in this
More informationGhana s Economic and Political Environment and the Implications for Doing Business
Ghana s Economic and Political Environment and the Implications for Doing Business Dr. Joe Amoako-Tuffour Director of Research The African Center for Economic Transformation Accra November 5, 2015 NORWAY-GHANA
More informationII. Merchandise trade
II. Merchandise trade Merchandise trade increased by 5 per cent in volume in 211. The strongest momentum was achieved by trade in manufactured goods, which grew by.5 per cent. Key developments in 211:
More informationA Look at Dairy Market Price Volatility and Options for Dairy Policy Reform
A Look at Dairy Market Price Volatility and Options for Dairy Policy Reform by Bob Yonkers, Ph.D. IDFA Vice President and Chief Economist May 25, 2011 Executive Summary This paper considers the growth
More informationGovernor's Statement No. 34 October 9, 2015. Statement by the Hon. BARRY WHITESIDE, Governor of the Bank and the Fund for the REPUBLIC OF FIJI
Governor's Statement No. 34 October 9, 2015 Statement by the Hon. BARRY WHITESIDE, Governor of the Bank and the Fund for the REPUBLIC OF FIJI Statement by the Hon. Mr. Barry Whiteside, Governor of the
More information1. If net capital outflow is positive, then: A. exports must be positive. B. exports must be negative.
1. If net capital outflow is positive, then: A. exports must be positive. B. exports must be negative. C. the trade balance mustbe positive. D. the trade balance mustbe negative. 2. In a small open economy,
More informationEC2105, Professor Laury EXAM 2, FORM A (3/13/02)
EC2105, Professor Laury EXAM 2, FORM A (3/13/02) Print Your Name: ID Number: Multiple Choice (32 questions, 2.5 points each; 80 points total). Clearly indicate (by circling) the ONE BEST response to each
More information