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1 Contact Alice Essam e Alice.Essam@rdir.com Isabel Richardson e Isabel.Richardson@rdir.com Richard Davies Investor Relations Ltd Bridewell Gate 9 Bridewell Place London EC4V 6AW t w rdir.com

2 Executive Summary 3 So is this the beginning of an exodus of long-term investors from fossil fuel assets? 4 Divestment as a climate change mitigation strategy 5 UN climate change conference - COP 21 5 Divestment as an investment management strategy and its limitations 6 for reducing aggregate carbon risks Alternative means of incorporating climate change mitigation objectives 7 Industry research and initiatives 9 What should companies expect? 10 RD:IR Governance and responsible investment 10 Contact details 11 2

3 The divestment movement has gathered considerable traction over the past year and is forcing investors to evaluate their position on fossil fuel investments As world leaders prepare to meet in Paris in December this year for the annual UN Climate Change Conference COP 21, stakeholders hope that a global carbon pricing system will result to guide policy and planning for carbon dioxide emissions reductions The role of investors is evolving; many see both a moral case and a superior investment case for companies with sustainable business plans involving less carbon extraction and less carbon consumption Investors are looking to understand their carbon exposure and develop strategies to reduce, offset and hedge against risk without relinquishing engagement opportunities Companies must be aware of shareholder sentiment, initiatives and research, as well as possible regulatory changes, in order to communicate effectively with investors 3

4 There is no denying that the movement which calls for divestment from fossil fuel companies has gathered considerable momentum since it began in 2011, and that it is one that cannot be ignored neither by investors nor companies. Growing from a small number of religious and charity endowment funds who routinely screen selected sin stocks based on moral and ethical judgements, along with university endowment funds whose investments have come under close scrutiny by their students, professors and influential alumni, the divestment movement can now claim levels of support from institutional investors too. Norway has reportedly committed to pulling its $900 billion sovereign wealth fund away from coal investments and French insurance giant AXA made a timely announcement on 22 May at the 2015 Climate Finance day in Paris that it will divest 500 million worth of coal assets by the end of AXA s chief executive Henri de Castries said that the firm could not afford to ignore what has become a core business issue. Witnessing anthropogenic climate change damage through insurance pay-outs AXA has reported in excess of 1 billion globally for weather-related claims the firm has incorporated this risk assessment into its own investments too, stating it has a responsibility as a long term institutional investor to consider carbon as a risk and to accompany the global energy transition. Evidence from investor organisations tells us not. However, the presence of a divestment campaign does require investors, or at least those who share a vision for a future low-carbon economy, to evaluate, consolidate and continue re-evaluating their position: in or out if out, from whom and when? If in, why, and what can be done to ensure staying invested is consistent with future scenarios that accept climate change mitigation and accepting that adaptation will change the course of business. This paper will review the recent trend toward fossil fuel divestment and its message for the industry. It will assess whether or not the movement is likely to gather traction beyond its current supporter base and visit some of the alternative strategies employed by investors who choose not to divest for incorporating concerns relating to climate change into their investments. We will conclude by looking at some of the possible ways investors are looking to mitigate risk in the proposed transition towards a low-carbon economy, and what companies might expect during engagement on this issue. 4

5 The fossil fuel divestment movement has been compared to the ethically-driven anti-apartheid divestment movement of the 1960s, 70s and 80s which sought to withdraw investment from business activities in South Africa as a demonstration of solidarity with those persecuted in the country, and as a sanction against the country s government. Some proponents of fossil fuel divestment similarly do so to demonstrate distaste for a given business activity and to encourage change based on moral principles: the early effects of climate change are already felt in certain corners of the world. For others the strategy goes beyond ethics. Word is spreading that traditional carbon-intensive models of growth will no longer be viable owing to various pressures that will affect businesses, from social to regulatory. Let s remind ourselves of what Professor Lord Nicholas Stern, author of the governmentcommissioned 2006 Stern Review on climate change, refers to as the basic arithmetic, and of how this fits into current climate change regulation development. It is understood that the Earth s temperature must not rise above two degrees Celsius if we are to avoid dangerous climate change. This internationally accepted stabilisation target forms the basis for climate policy development. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned in a 2014 report that we must expect a temperature rise of between three and five degrees by 2100 under a business-as-usual scenario. Therefore emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, of which approximately 72% are carbon dioxide, must be dramatically reduced. The reduction must equate to no more than 350 ppm (parts per million) of CO2; we are currently emitting 400 ppm with a rise of 2 ppm of carbon dioxide per year. It is from this calculation that the 350.org campaign, which proposes fossil fuel divestment, derives its name. Agreeing on strategies to achieve and measure this reduction presents one of the greatest challenges of our time. However, it is hoped that in December this year at the UN Climate Change Conference COP 21 in Paris a legally binding treaty will be agreed upon, which will dictate emissions reductions targets, and strategies for achieving them. As yet, only a proportion of developed nations have made non-binding commitments to carbon dioxide reductions. COP 21 will bring global leaders together to discuss how, in a globalised world which expects a population of 9 billion by 2050, and a rising middle class, we can proceed with setting global emissions targets. High on the agenda will be the designing of a global carbon pricing system, supported by President Hollande, in accordance with the private sector, in his keynote speech at the Business & Climate Summit in Paris in May this year. Unusually, support has come directly from a group of energy companies too: Europe s six biggest oil and gas companies have initiated communication with the UN in which they back carbon pricing. It is hoped such a system will incentivise the reduction of emissions by charging those who emit carbon dioxide. However, designing an efficient, effective and fair system is no easy task. There is currently no clear accord on how pricing and trading systems should work and indeed, in a world where multinational companies transcend national borders, what regulatory jurisdictions should consist of nations or markets? 5

6 So, there we have the bigger picture. Where do investors and companies fit into this? As the climate summit in Paris approaches, fingers point at big businesses and increasing expectations are placed on the private sector to drive forward the low-carbon transition it is increasingly recognised within stakeholder forums that investors, as owners in companies, are well positioned to effect change. Indeed, it is their responsibility to do so. Understanding and being able to respond to the various viewpoints and demands of shareholders is thus becoming imperative. As evidenced by the divestment movement, to some, denouncing fossil fuel extraction by relinquishing ownership of shares in companies engaged in this business presents the best course of action. Additionally, for investors such as Blood and Gore of Generation Investment Management, divestment serves as a risk management strategy and there are simply better options than to invest into stocks which could prove mispriced should in the future their assets become unusable, or stranded, in a low-carbon scenario. For many investors, the stranded assets concept is one that warrants serious attention and various research institutes aim to model the possible situations in which this could be possible: according to the Carbon Tracker Initiative, the world s capital markets list more fossil fuel assets than can be burnt if we are to stick within a two degree temperature rise. This suggests disparity between the current market prices of fossil fuel companies with what they could be should a legally binding regulation of carbon dioxide emissions emerge. Businesses which depend upon fossil fuels for energy would therefore also be mispriced. Decarbonising an investment portfolio through divestment is one way of managing this risk, but it is not the only one that investors are using. Divestment, for all its virtues heightening awareness of anthropogenic climate change, pressuring regulatory bodies to push forward policy-making, and ultimately communicating that we must readdress our patterns of fossil fuel consumption is not the most pragmatic or effective solution for everybody. It does not make what are undesirable companies to some, magically disappear, and it does nothing to tackle the demand for fossil fuels, which would be the only way to undermine a company s profitability. It does not recognise the nuances between companies and their response to environmental stewardship, nor does it account for the fact that a number of industries require oil derivatives. Whilst there may be alternatives for electricity production, the pharmaceuticals, plastics and industrial materials and agriculture industries do not have such options. What s more, all investors risk severe volatility across asset classes if a transition, through divestment or any other means, is not managed responsibly. And what of the financial ramifications? Despite claims that divestment would restrict companies access to capital, the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at Oxford University conducted a study which foresees limited impact on the pricing of fossil fuels. Indeed, while already volatile prices may drop, there will always be a supply of investors poised to buy at a discount. Furthermore, if aggregate levels of exposed carbon are not reduced, any shared carbon risk is simply transferred as responsibility and stewardship possibilities are offloaded onto another investor who may or may not be as engaged in the wider issue. Given that governance is better when those with power are held accountable and their decisions and actions are scrutinised, many see that their influence is stronger when participating as an active shareholder, rather than as an absentee. As the investors choosing divestment, or under pressure from beneficiaries to divest, 6

7 are long-term investors, what consequences would there be if all long-term investors washed their hands of fossil fuel companies? So, what are those engaged investors, who aren t choosing divestment, doing to manage carbon risk and encourage a low-carbon transition, and what can companies expect? Firstly, it is important to recognise the variety of shareholder bases, to distinguish between approaches and to understand who drives the mandates. Implementing an investment strategy which incorporates environmental concerns such as climate change is possible for asset owners with in-house managers, and to those who can provide detailed principles to external managers, as is the case for California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS), for example. For fiduciaries, acting upon the moral convictions of a board trustee or portfolio manager can be interpreted as going beyond their remit; investment managers are duty-bound to select investment opportunities deemed most likely to produce high returns. In this case, only where the materiality of an investment is deemed risky because of ESG or sustainability doubts might a stock be divested. Unsurprisingly, this position has proved challenging for fiduciaries who have been lobbied to consider divestment as a result of increased public awareness of the environmental and social impacts of businesses across the world. Ambiguity surrounding the role of a fiduciary, highlighted in the Kay Review, resulted in a Law Commission report, published in July It concluded that trustees could take into account ethical concerns so long as they have good reason to think that scheme members share the view. It was highlighted in a subsequent Department for Work and Pensions consultation that the terms ESG and ethical are not clearly defined in law and that the current use of the terms is unhelpful for trustees in determining whether or not they should consider particular elements in their investment decisions. There is possibility that the Pensions Act might be amended later in the year to reflect these discussions, and to include interests beyond maximisation of financial return and generally prevailing ethical standards of beneficiaries, even if this is not in the immediate financial interest of the beneficiaries. It will be interesting to note whether or not any changes in the Pensions Act will result in increased divestment either across a sector or within a sector or whether firms will maintain their current strategies of staying invested but acting as responsible, active stewards to try to encourage best practice. This has been the strategy of Edinburgh University, who has famously rejected requests by its stakeholders to divest, stating that it would pursue a responsible investment policy and use research activities to work with companies to reduce emissions. In this way, companies will be asked to report on their emissions and be benchmarked according to their performance within the sector. Rather than divesting from all fossil fuel companies, the University will focus on companies active in the extraction of coal sands and tar sands, which are considered to be most carbon intensive. Divestment will still occur, but much like in the fiduciary case, it will be based on a preference for a more financially sustainable investment rather than a rejection based on moral grounds. For institutional managers, often divestment is carried out only at a client s request. There are other strategies attractive to long-term investors which aim to influence the climate change movement at the same time as managing investment risks and opportunities. These will depend 7

8 upon the investment objectives, stakeholder or beneficiary views, and the construction and governance of a fund. Popular strategies include: Best-in-class selection This involves the rating of companies based on a selection of criteria and choosing to either stay invested into only the best performers or electing to divest from the worst performers. This strategy has been employed by Swedish pension fund AP4 and French manager Amundi Asset Management in particular. There have been calls for asset management firms who do this to publicly disclose who the worst performers are and to state their rationale as a sanction for poor corporate behaviour. Risk Adjustment Risk adjustment helps manage perceived carbon-related risks across asset classes through managed strategies and following a low-carbon index. Hedging Hedging involves choosing to offset carbon exposure by investing in low-carbon assets such as renewable energy companies, clean technologies, energy efficiency and other businesses that will be profitable in a low-carbon economy. Hedging in this case is a protection against any future repricing of carbon. Engagement Many investors choose to stay invested believing that they have more influence as a shareholder who can support companies through a managed transition whilst fossil fuels are still required and alternative energies are scaled up. Engagement requirements will depend on the shareholder, their objectives and what other approaches are chosen. Investors are aware that their ability to ask companies the right questions is critical, and that this must evolve over time to reflect current thinking. Initiatives and working groups assist investors in doing this. One institutional investor said that the best (non-sector specific) engagement questions centre on: leadership; alignment with shareholder visions; awareness and willingness to take difficult decisions; the assumptions that underpin management decisions; the advice a company receives internal, external, academic, analytics and research on forward looking trends; 8

9 the probabilities connected with carbon-pricing assumptions and how they are interpreted into models of growth versus return. Relating back to the question of stranded assets, the big questions for fossil fuel companies relate to return on capital and capital expenditure: how much are companies spending on exploration, particularly of heavy, carbon intensive resources, and how much are they spending on R&D into lower-carbon alternatives? Another investor states that they look for justification of the expenditure on projects both now and under possible future carbon and related commodity price increases or decreases, and for demonstration of how future climate legislation will affect the business. In terms of industry research, there are a number of organisations which carry out in-depth research into a range of environmental and social issues with the aim of aligning capital markets investors with sustainability goals, such as those relating to climate change and carbon emissions. On climate change and carbon in particular, the Carbon Tracker Initiative discloses carbon-related statistics and market-based models useful to investors in formulating an engagement agenda, developing industry awareness and on wider engagement with policy makers and regulators. Other external research houses such as EIRIS, Sustainalytics and Trucost assist investors in incorporating sustainability issues by presenting information for screening, integrated analysis or by setting a suggested engagement agenda. The UN-backed Principles of Responsible Investment encourage signatories to abide by six principles which encourage the inclusion of ESG issues into investment processes, active ownership, industry collaboration, and transparency and disclosure. Whilst commitment to the principles may vary from investor to investor the network provides opportunities to engage collaboratively with policy makers and participate in working groups to refine the stewardship process. It is certainly worth noting the types of exercises organised by such bodies, for example, last year the PRI launched the Montreal Pledge, which calls on asset owners to calculate the annual carbon footprint of their equity portfolios, and thus understand their carbon exposure. Other insightful networks in this way include Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change, the International Corporate Governance Network and the Carbon Disclosure Project. Finally, one cannot ignore the recent success of the investor-led Aiming for A coalition, which proves that although investors may not be choosing divestment, they are certainly not passive on the climate issue. Comprising asset owners with more than 200 billion in assets, this coalition represents a force for change. Most recently the coalition, which was initiated by CCLA, and supported by ShareAction and ClientEarth, instigated the submission of shareholder resolutions at the AGMs of BP and Shell. The resolution submitted to both companies requested that given the recognised risks and opportunities associate with climate change the company provide further information in their 2016 annual report concerning: on-going operational emissions management; asset portfolio resilience to the International Energy Agency s (IEA s) scenarios; lowcarbon energy research and development (R&D) and investment strategies; relevant strategic key performance indicators (KPIs) and executive incentives; and public policy positions relating to climate change. The resolution suggested building upon previous reporting and disclosures 9

10 made to the CDP. At both the BP AGM in April and the Shell AGM in May over 98% of ISC backed the resolution, demonstrating a strong accord that companies need to be doing more to build sustainability into their business cases. Companies should expect to be scrutinised by a range of stakeholders on ESG issues as interest in the ethics of corporatism increases alongside public awareness of global environmental and social issues. Increasing pressure will come from investment managers for companies to play their part in the transition to a low-carbon economy and demonstrate sustainability as a key part of their business plan, as they in turn are required to be more transparent in their activities. The next year is set to be crucial in setting emissions targets; awareness of this and strategies that incorporate this will be essential, no matter the sector. Evidence of adaptation will be sought in a number of ways, with preference for integrated reporting that refers to jurisdiction regulations and to internationally recognised principles and guidelines, such as the UN Global Compact, the Declaration of Human Rights, the International Labour Organisation, the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises and the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. Based on recent events, if companies are not willing to take the lead on implementing decarbonising strategies, or provide clear enough reporting that they are making progress in the area, we may be seeing more shareholder resolutions yet. RD:IR can overlay your ownership information with key information on the ESG principles of your investors, with full research reports linked within IR InTouch, our proprietary online IR platform which combines share ownership analysis with investor audience CRM. You can track the level of ESG investment in your company, target ESG investors and reach out to the governance contacts at each firm. RD:IR researches the strategies large, long-term institutional investors deploy to incorporate environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns into their investment process to help companies understand their investor base, and the requirements that are likely to be placed on them. At the fund level, we flag as SRI on our Governance and Responsible Investment share register report segregated funds with ethical and sustainable criteria, and funds which are managed on behalf of clients such as charities, churches and other endowments likely to have a specific mandate. 10

11 At a firm level, investors who have a particular focus on governance they have a high voting participation and are likely to be active in engaging with management are marked G and those who integrate ESG analysis across all funds and are active in engaging on these issues are marked ESG. We produce comprehensive and short-form profiles intended as briefing notes ahead of investor communication and engagement on ESG issues. We detail the socially responsibly investment (SRI), or sustainability objectives and mandates of specific funds, and the level of ESG integration into mainstream funds. Any particular areas of focus and international benchmarks followed are distinguished. Investment firms resources dedicated to the area, methods of research, engagement style and reporting preferences are described, along with an indication of their presence within, and their contribution to, collaborative initiatives, so that management can get the best idea possible of the investor and their commitment to the area ahead of meeting. To understand further how RD:IR can help you in your Governance and Responsible Investment strategy, please contact Isabel Richardson, Head of IR Services. e Isabel.Richardson@rdir.com t

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