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1 Review for Final Stat 10 (1) The table below shows data for a sample of students from UCLA. (a) What percent of the sampled students are male? 57/117 (b) What proportion of sampled students are social science majors or male? P (yes or male) = P (yes) + P (male) P (yes and male) = 55/ /117 30/117 = 92/117. (c) Are Gender and socscimajor independent variables? The proportion of males in each socsci- Major group appears to be pretty different: 25/55 = /72 = This would mean the variables are not independent. (What method could we do to check whether independence seems reasonable?) Gender socscimajor yes no TOTAL female male TOTAL (2) The distribution of the number of pizzas consumed by each UCLA student in their freshman year is very right skewed. One UCLA residential coordinator claims the mean is 7 pizzas per year. The first three parts are True/False. (a) If we take a sample of 100 students and plot the number of pizzas they consumed, it will closely resemble the normal distribution. FALSE. It should be right skewed. (b) If we take a sample of 100 students and compute the mean number of pizzas consumed, it is reasonable to use the normal approximation to create a confidence interval. TRUE. (c) If we took a sample of 100 students and computed the median and the mean, we would probably find the mean is less than the median. FALSE. Since the distribution is right skewed, we would expect the mean to be larger than the median. (d) We suspect the the mean number of pizzas consumed is actually more than 7 and take a sample of 100 students. We obtain a mean of 8.9 and SD of 7. Test whether this data provides convincing evidence that the UCLA residential coordinator underestimated the mean. We have a large sample, so we will run a t test even though the data is not normally distributed. H 0 : µ = 7, H A : µ > 7. Our test statistic is t = / 100 = 2.71 with df = = 99. We would find a (one tail!) p-value to be less than This is convincing evidence that the UCLA coordinator underestimated the mean. (e) Suppose the mean is actually 9 and the SD is actually 7. Can you compute the probability a student eats at least five pizzas in his/her freshman year? If so, do it. If not, why not? We cannot compute this probability for a right skewed distribution (with the provided data). (3) In exercise (2), the distribution of pizzas eaten by freshman was said to be right skewed. Suppose we sample 100 freshman after their first year and their distribution is given by the histogram below. Estimate the mean and the median. Explain how you estimated each. Should your 1

4 (6) 26% of Americans smoke. (a) If we pick one person (specifically, an American) at random, what is the probability s/he does not smoke? If 26% smoke, then 74% do not smoke. (0.74) (b) We ask 500 people to report if they and their closest friend smokes. The results are below. Does it appear that the smoking choice of people and their closest friends are independent? Explain. It does not. 50% (67/135) of the smoking group has friend smokes while only about 14% (53/365) of non-smokers has friend smokes. friend smokes friend does not TOTAL smoke does not TOTAL (7) A drug (sulphinpyrazone) is used in a double blind experiment to attempt to reduce deaths in heart attack patients. The results from the study are below: outcome lived died Total trmt drug placebo (a) Setup a hypothesis test to check the effectiveness of the drug. Let p d represent the drug proportion who die and p p represent the proportion who die who got the placebo. Then H 0 : p p p d = 0 and H A : p p p d > 0, where the alternative corresponds to the drug effectively reducing deaths. (b) Run a two-proportion hypothesis test. List and verify any assumptions you need to complete this test. (i) The success/failure condition is okay. If we pool the proportions, we get p c = = and n pp c 49 and n d p c 50 are each greater than 10. (ii) It is reasonable to expect our patients to be independent in this study. (iii) We certainly have less than 10% of the population. All conditions are met. Then we compute our pooled Z test statistic (pooled since H 0 : p 1 p 2 = 0) as Z = 1.92, which has a p-value of This is sufficiently small to reject H 0, so we conclude the drug is effective at reducing heart attack deaths. (c) Does your test suggest trmt affects outcome? (And why can we use causal language here?) Yes! It is an experiment. (d) We could also test the hypotheses in (b) by scrambling the results many times and see if our result is unusual under scrambling. Using the number of deaths in the drug group as our test statistic, estimate the p-value from the plot of 1000 scramble results below. How does it compare to your answer in part (b)? Do you come to the same conclusion? The p-value is the sum of the bins to the left of 40, which is about 35. Since there were 1000 simulations, the estimated p-value is 0.035, which is pretty close to our result when we use the normal approximation and we come to the same conclusion. 4

5 150 Frequency Difference in death rates (8) For the record, these numbers are completely fabricated. The probability a student can successfully create and effectively use a tree diagram at the end of an introductory statistics course is Of those students who could create a tree diagram successfully, 97% of them passed the course. Of those who could not construct a tree diagram, only 81% passed. We select one student at random (call him Jon). (a) What is the probability Jon passes introductory statistics course? First, construct a tree diagram, breaking by the treediagram variable first and then passclass second. Total the probabilities where Jon passes: = (b) If Jon passed the course, what is the probability he can construct a tree diagram? 0.65/0.92 = (c) If Jon did NOT pass the course, what is the probability he cannot construct a tree diagram? First find the probability he did not pass the course (0.08), then the probability he cannot construct a tree diagram AND did not pass (0.13), and take the ratio: 0.06/0.08 = (d) Stephen knows about these probabilities and decides to spend all his time studying tree diagrams, thinking he will then have a 97% chance of passing the final. What is the flaw in his reasoning? This is only observational data and not necessarily causal. In fact, it seems like he will guarantee he does poorly if he only understands one topic! (9) It is known that 80% of people like peanut butter, 89% like jelly, and 78% like both. (a) If we pick one person at random, what is the chance s/he likes peanut butter or jelly? Construct a Venn diagram to use in each part. Then we can compute this probability as (b) How many people like either peanut butter or jelly, but not both? 13% (c) Suppose you pick out 8 people at random, what is the chance that exactly 1 of the 8 likes peanut butter but not jelly? Verify any assumptions you need to solve this problem. This is a binomial model problem. Refer to problem (4b) for conditions. Then identify n = 8, x = 1, p = 0.02 and the probability is (d) Are liking peanut butter and liking jelly disjoint outcomes? No! 78% of people like both. 5

6 (10) Suze has been tracking the following two items on Ebay: A chemistry textbook that sells for an average of \$110 with a standard deviation of \$4. Mario Kart for the Nintendo Wii, which sells for an average of \$38 with a standard deviation of \$5. Let X and Y represent the selling price of her textbook and the Mario Kart game, respectively. (a) Suze wants to sell the video game but buy the textbook. How much net money would she expect to make or spend? Also compute the variance and standard deviation of how much she will make/spend. We want to compute the expected value, variance, and SD of how much she spends, X Y. The expected amount spent is The variance is = 41, and the SD is 41. (b) Walter is selling the chemistry textbook on Ebay for a friend, and his friend is giving him a 10% commission (Walter keeps 10% of the revenue). How much money should he expect to make? What is the standard deviation of how much he will make? We are examining 0.1 Y. The expected value is = 11 and the SD is = 0.4. (c) Shane is selling two chemistry textbooks. What is the mean and standard deviation of the revenue he should expect from the sales? If we call the first chemistry textbook X 1 and the second one X 2, then we want the expected value and SD of X 1 + X 2. The expected value is = 220 and the SD is given by SD 2 = = 32, i.e. SD = 4 2. (11) There are currently 120 students still enrolled in our lecture. I assumed that each student will attend the review session with a probability of 0.5. (a) If 0.5 is an accurate estimate of the probability a single student will attend, how many students should I expect to show up? About half, so 60 students. (b) If the review session room seats 71 people (59% of the class), what is the chance that not everyone will get a seat who attends the review session? Again assume 0.5 is an accurate probability. We can use the normal approximation. We first compute Z = = 1.97, /120 which corresponds to an upper tail of (c) Suppose 61% of the class shows up. Setup and run a hypothesis to check whether the 0.5 guess still seems reasonable. H 0 : p = 0.5, H A : p 0.5. The test is two-sided since we did not conjecture beforehand whether the outcome would over or undershoot 50%. The test statistic is Z = = 2.41 and the p-value is = We reject the notion /120 that 0.5 is a reasonable probability estimate. (12) Obama s approval rating is at about 51% according to Gallup. Of course, this is only a statistic that tries to measure the population parameter, the true approval rating based on all US citizens (we denote this proportion by p). (a) If the sample consisted of 1000 people, determine a 95% confidence interval for his approval. The estimate is 0.51, and the SE =.51.49/1000 = Then using Z = 1.96, we get the confidence interval estimate ± Z SE, i.e. (0.48, 0.54). 6

7 (b) Interpret your confidence interval. We are 95% confident that Obama s true approval rating is between 48% and 54%. (c) What does 95% confidence mean in this context? About 95% of 95% confidence intervals from all such samples will capture the true approval rating. Most importantly, it is trying to capture the true approval rating for the entire population and this is not a probability! (d) If Rush Limbaugh said Obama s approval rating is below 50%, could you confidently reject this claim based on the Gallup poll? No. Values below 50% (e.g. 49.9%) are in the interval. (13) A company wants to know if more than 20% of their 500 vehicles would fail emissions tests. They take a sample of 50 cars and 14 cars fail the test. (a) Verify any assumptions necessary and run an appropriate hypothesis test. You should verify the success/failure condition, that this is less than (or equal to) 10% of the fleet, and that the cars are reasonable independent (which is okay if the sample is random). H 0 : p = 0.2, H A : p > 0.2. Find the test statistic: Z = = Then find the p-value: Since /50 the p-value is greater than 0.05, we do not reject H 0. That is, we do not have significant evidence against the claim that 20% or fewer cars fail the emissions test. (b) The simulation results below represent the number of failed cars we would expect to see if 20% of the cars in the fleet actually failed. Use this picture to setup and run a hypothesis test. You should specifically estimate the p-value based on the simulation results. Hypothesis setup as before. We get the p-value from the picture as about 60/500 = Same conclusion as before frequency Number of failed cars (c) How do your results from parts (a) and (b) compare? The conclusions are the same, however, the p-values are pretty different. (d) Which test procedure is more statistically sound, the one from part (a) or the one from part (b)? (To my knowledge, we haven t really discussed this in class. That is, make your best guess at which is more statistically sound.) Generally the randomization/simulation technique is more statistically sound. The normal model is only a rough approximation for samples this small and, while it is good, it is inferior to the other technique. (It will always be inferior, even when the sample size is very large.) 7

8 y x + rnorm(45) y y (14) Stephen claims that Casino Royale was a significantly better movie than Quantum of Solace. Jon disagrees. To settle this disagreement, they decide to test which movie is better by examining whether Casino Royale was more favorably reviewed on Amazon than Quantum of Solace. (a) Setup the hypotheses to check whether Casino Royale is actually rated more favorably than Quantum of Solace. H 0 : Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace are equally well-accepted. H A : Casino Royale was better accepted than Quantum of Solace. (b) The true difference in the mean ratings is Stephen and Jon decide to scramble the results, compute the difference under this randomization, and see how it compares to What hypothesis does scrambling represent? It represents the null hypothesis since the scrambled results have an expected difference between the ratings of 0. (c) Approximately what difference would they expect to see in the scrambled results? Values close to 0. (d) Stephen and Jon scramble the results 500 times and plot a histogram of the observed chance differences, which is shown below. Based on these results, would you reject or not reject your null hypothesis from part (a)? Who was right, Stephen or Jon? There were NO observations anywhere remotely close to 0.81, so this suggests Casino Royale is rated more favorably and Stephen is, according to our test, right. frequency scrambled difference (15) Examine each plot below. x x x 8

10 midterm midterm 1 (a) From the plot, does a linear model seem reasonable? Yes. There are no obvious signs of curvature. The values at the far top of the class appear to deviate slightly, but not so strongly that we should be alarmed. (b) If we use only the data shown, we have the following statistics: midterm 1 midterm 2 correlation (R) x s Determine the equation for the least squares regression line based on these statistics. First find the slope: b 1 = r sy s x = /6.8 = Next find the intercept: ȳ = b x (plug in the means and solve for b 0 = 21). The equation is midterm2 = (midterm1). (c) Interpret both the y-intercept and the slope of the regression line. If person 1 scored a point higher than person 2 on exam 1, we would expect (predict) the first person s score to be about points higher than the second person on exam 2. The y-intercept describes our predicted score if someone got a 0 on the first exam. We should be cautious about the meaning of this intercept since our line doesn t include any values there. (d) If a random student scored a 27 on the first exam, what would you predict she (or he) scored on the second exam? Plug 27 in for midterm1 in the equation and get midterm2 = (e) If that same student scored a 47 on midterm 2, did s/he have a positive or negative residual? Positive since she scored higher than we predicted (her score falls above the regression line). (f) Would you rather be a positive or negative residual? Positive that means you outperformed your predicted score. (18) Lightning round. For (c) and (d), change the sentence to be true in the cases it is false. (Note: There is typically more than one way to make a false statement true.) (a) Increasing the confidence level affects a confidence interval how? slimmer wider no effect (b) Increasing the sample size affects a confidence interval how? slimmer wider no effect 10

11 (c) True or False: If a distribution is skewed to the right with mean 50 and standard deviation 10, then half of the observations will be above 50. False. Change half to less than half or change skewed to the right to be symmetric or normal. (d) True or False: If a distribution is skewed to the right and we take a sample of 10, the sample mean is normally distributed. False. We need more observations before we can safely assume the normal model. Change 10 to 100 (or another large number) or skewed to the right to normal. (e) You are given the regression equation ŷ = x where y represents GPA and x represents how much spinach a person eats. Suppose we have an observation (x = 5ounces/week, y = 2.0). Can we conclude that eating more spinach would cause an increase in this person s GPA? No. Regression lines only represent causal relationships when in the context of a proper experiment. (f) Researchers collected data on two variables: sunscreen use and skin cancer. They found a positive association between sunscreen use and cancer. Why is this finding not surprising? What might be really going on here? It might be that sun exposure is influencing both variables! Sun exposure is a lurking variable. (g) In the Franken-Coleman dispute (MN Senate race in 2008 that was disputed for many months), one expert appeared on TV and argued that the support for each candidate was so close that their support was statistically indistinguishable, and we should conduct another election for this race. What is wrong with his reasoning? An election represents a measure on the entire (voting) population. It is not a sample. (h) In Exercise 12, you computed a confidence interval to capture President Obama s approval rating. True or False: There is a 95% chance that the true proportion is in this interval. False! Confidence levels do not correspond to probabilities. (i) True or False: In your confidence interval in Exercise 12, you confirmed that 95% of all sample proportions would fall between (0.48 and 0.54). False! The confidence interval only tries to capture the population parameter, in this case the true proportion. (j) Researchers ran an experiment and rejected H 0 using a test level of Would they make the same conclusion if they were using a testing level of 0.10? Yes since p-value < They still reject H 0. How about 0.01? Unknown since we don t know if the p-value is smaller or larger than (k) True or False: The binomial model still provides accurate probabilities when trials are not independent. False! 11

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