Nuclear Energy University Programs Workforce Analysis

Transcription

1 Nuclear Energy University Programs Workforce Analysis Developed by: Division of Research Moore School of Business University of South Carolina November 2010

2 Executive Summary In recent years there has been a dramatic increase in the demand for nuclear energy in the United States that has fueled an increase in demand for nuclear industry professionals. This increase in demand has occurred for a variety of reasons, most notably due to the general rise in population and the rise in public support for nuclear energy as a means of green technology that serves as an alternative to oil and gas. In addition, the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) projects that approximately half of the current nuclear workforce will retire within the next decade. As a result, the U.S. Department of Energy s Nuclear Energy University Programs (NEUP) commissioned this study to determine the extent to which a nuclear workforce shortage exists or will exist over the next decade. Part of the mission of the NEUP is to provide scholarships for students enrolled in accredited U.S. nuclear programs. A workforce shortage will signal an increased need for these services. In this report, nuclear workforce is defined as employees working as nuclear engineers, radiochemists, and health physicists. Data come from three sources: (1) a nuclear workforce survey conducted by the University of South Carolina s Division of Research to collect information from major employers of the nuclear workforce (vendors, national laboratories, and universities) on current workforce demand, retirement rates, and hiring projections; (2) a 2009 study conducted by the NEI to determine hiring projections for U.S. power utilities; (3) a report compiled annually by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education on the number of U.S. students graduating with B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees in nuclear engineering. The results indicate that although there will be a significant increase in demand over the next decade for the U.S. nuclear workforce for all positions, the majority of this demand will be for nuclear technologists (employees holding associate s degrees in nuclear technology) who will obtain positions in maintenance and operations at power utilities. Estimates produced in this report show the following: (1) A minimum of 21.1 percent of the nuclear workforce is expected to retire by This report estimates that there are approximately 8,109 current employees in the nuclear workforce, of which at least 1,714 are expected to retire by Nuclear Energy University Programs Workforce Analysis 1

3 (2) The nuclear workforce will more than double by the year 2020, but roughly 70 percent of this expansion will come from the hiring of nuclear technologists. A total of 9,531 hires not due to retirement of current employees are expected to take place in the next ten years with approximately 6,813 being nuclear technologists. (3) Shortages in the nuclear workforce over the next ten years will likely come primarily from an increased need for nuclear technologists because U.S. universities are currently projected to graduate a sufficient number of students with B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees in nuclear engineering to meet projected demand. Nevertheless, the extent of the projected shortage of nuclear technologists cannot be determined because data are not available on the total number of annual graduates with associate s degrees in nuclear technology. 1 1 According to The Oak Ridge Institute, there is no existing source that compiles data on the annual total of U.S. graduates with associate s degrees in nuclear technology. Nuclear Energy University Program Workforce Analysis 2

4 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS... 3 INTRODUCTION... 4 PREVIOUS WORKFORCE STUDIES... 6 WORKFORCE ANALYSIS... 7 TABLE 1: TOTAL NUMBER OF SURVEYED ORGANIZATIONS... 9 TABLE 2: NUMBER OF CURRENT EMPLOYEES IN THE NUCLEAR WORKFORCE... 9 TABLE 3: PERCENTAGE OF WORKFORCE BY DEGREE FIELD AND LEVEL TABLE 4: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES EXPECTED TO BE HIRED BY 2020 (NOT DUE TO RETIREMENT)...10 TABLE 5: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES EXPECTED TO RETIRE BY TABLE 6: EDUCATION PROJECTIONS...12 CONCLUSIONS...13 WORKS CITED...14 APPENDIX A SURVEY INSTRUMENT APPENDIX B STATISTICAL METHODOLOGIES...21 Nuclear Energy University Programs Workforce Analysis 3

5 Introduction Over the last several years there has been a rise in the demand for nuclear energy in the United States that has caused a dramatic increase in the demand for industry professionals. This is largely due to increasing public awareness and support of nuclear energy as a means of reducing carbon emissions and helping to establish energy independence for the United States. Since 1985 public support for nuclear energy has increased from fifty to seventy percent nationwide. 2 In February 2010 President Barack Obama openly incorporated nuclear energy into his political agenda to address concerns about the environment and energy independence by stating his interest in establishing loan guarantees for nuclear power plants. The World Nuclear Association states that there are currently proposals for over twenty new reactors in the United States and expects for there to be between four and eight new nuclear reactors built and functional by the year This comes on the heels of a thirty-year period in which few nuclear reactors were built. Commercial generators of nuclear power have been operational in the United States since the 1950s, but several factors have deterred growth in the industry in recent decades. First, relative to power plants based on fossil fuels, nuclear power plants can take a significantly longer time build, which often leads to higher financing costs. Second, the price of crude oil fell by over sixty percent from 1980 to 1986 and then remained at this level until the late 1990s. Third, nuclear accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl took place in 1979 and 1986, respectively. The combination of these three occurrences created a perception of nuclear energy as an unnecessarily expensive and dangerous alternative to fossil fuels. During this same time period the professional nuclear workforce had been relatively stable. With employees maintaining well-paid positions in the existing nuclear facilities and growth of these facilities at a minimum, workforce recruitment and educational programs were both limited. Today, however, with this stable workforce beginning to retire and a new surge in 2 Source: Nuclear Energy Institute public opinion statistics on nuclear energy are available at 3 Source: World Nuclear Association - Nuclear Energy University Program Workforce Analysis 4

6 demand for nuclear energy, the industry is facing a situation in which retiring workers must be replaced and new professionals must be found. Complicating matters is the fact that the current university programs that train these professionals are not producing enough workers to meet the new levels of demand. While reliable data are scarce, there is significant anecdotal evidence that the Department of Energy, the national laboratories, nuclear technology companies, and university nuclear engineering departments are currently experiencing or anticipate significant shortages of qualified nuclear science and engineering professionals. In addition, according to the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), approximately half of the nuclear industry s workforce will be eligible to retire within the next decade. In light of these facts, the Department of Energy s Nuclear Energy University Programs (NEUP) has funded this research project to determine the labor demand for professionals in the fields of nuclear science and engineering. The NEUP supports university reactor research, undergraduate scholarships, graduate fellowships, as well as university infrastructure support. It currently allocates approximately eighty percent of its budget towards nuclear science and engineering research and twenty percent towards infrastructure (laboratory upgrades and equipment) and scholarships for students enrolled in nuclear programs at accredited U.S. universities. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. The next section briefly reviews some of the major studies conducted on the nuclear workforce since The report then describes the workforce analysis and survey conducted by the University of South Carolina s Division of Research and a description of what the survey results imply about the future demand and future shortage of the nuclear workforce when they are paired with education data on the number of students graduating and preparing to enter the nuclear workforce. The final section of the report summarizes and reports the primary conclusions. Nuclear Energy University Programs Workforce Analysis 5

7 Previous Workforce Studies The first major survey conducted on the nuclear workforce in recent years was completed in the year 1999 by the American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) 4. Prior to this survey, the last review of the nuclear industry labor force was conducted in 1990 as part of the National Academy of Sciences report entitled U.S. Nuclear Engineering Education: Status and Prospects. 5 In surveying universities with nuclear engineering programs, this study found that the number of schools offering appropriate curricula, the number of students, and the addition of young faculty were all decreasing. In addition, funding priorities were moving away from areas related to power reactors, which made it more difficult to fund maintenance of laboratories and equipment for educational purposes. This was true at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. In 1990, graduates of nuclear engineering programs were meeting the demand for workers, but this study emphasized the initial stages of a decline in the workforce. In 2000, ASEE conducted a survey specifically designed to address the need for nuclear engineers in the nuclear industry. The survey defined a nuclear engineer as an engineer (at the B.S. and M.S. degree levels) working with reactor physics, reactor engineering, reactor safety, fuel management, handling and disposal or health physics, or any part of the nuclear fuel cycle. Two surveys were conducted the first to nuclear engineering departments across the country (32 total) and the second to major U.S. companies known to hire nuclear engineers (168 total). The response rate was 88 percent and 52 percent for the universities and U.S. companies, respectively. The study concluded that there is a significant gap between the supply and demand for nuclear engineers that increased by 30 percent between 1998 and Was and Martin (1999) 5 This report is published by the National Academy Press. See reference list for details. Nuclear Energy University Program Workforce Analysis 6

8 In 2004, the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory/Bechtel conducted a broad survey examining the ability of the United States to produce enough labor to meet the potential resurgence of nuclear power plant development based on an estimated increase in demand for power usage in the U.S. 6 This study examines job creation in nuclear manufacturing, plant construction and operation, indirect job creation in the nuclear power industry, and induced employment in non-nuclear industries throughout the country. They estimate that a total of over 600,000 jobs will be added to the U.S. economy by 2020 resulting from their projections for the increases in demand for power usage. More recently, the Idaho National Laboratory (2006), the Nuclear Energy Institute (2009), and the U.S. Department of Energy s Office of Integrated Analysis (2009) have all conducted workforce analyses that provide evidence for an increase in demand for nuclear power and a workforce shortage in the next decade. Each of the aforementioned surveys is unique in that they each have specific definitions of the nuclear workforce and, therefore, are not directly comparable with one another. Each study has a different focus because of different objectives. Similarly, this report has its own objective, which is to specifically determine the increase in demand for employees working in nuclear engineering, radiochemistry, and health physics within the next decade. There is no previous study in the literature that answers this specific question. Workforce Analysis The nuclear workforce is employed by organizations that can be broken down into four main categories: (power) utilities, vendors, national laboratories, and universities. Once data on employment demand are obtained from these organizations, they can be compared with education data on the number of graduates in nuclear workforce programs. Data from a 2009 survey conducted by the Nuclear Energy Institute on the nuclear workforce of U.S. utilities along 6 This study is entitled U.S. Job Creation Due to Nuclear Power Resurgence in the United States. Nuclear Energy University Programs Workforce Analysis 7

9 with education data collected by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education were available for use. Specific data regarding the demand for the nuclear workforce coming from vendors, national laboratories, and universities were collected by the Division of Research at the University of South Carolina; a survey was conducted of the major organizations in these three categories. The South Carolina Universities Research and Education Foundation (SCUREF) provided a list of major U.S. employers in these three categories from which to survey. As outlined above, this report defines nuclear science and engineering professionals specifically as those employees working in the nuclear industry in the fields of nuclear engineering, radiochemistry, and health physics. 7 Each field is broken down as follows: Nuclear Engineers Employees working in the capacity as nuclear technicians who have A.S. degrees in nuclear technology Employees working in the capacity as nuclear engineers who have either a B.S., M.S., or Ph.D. in nuclear engineering Employees working in the capacity as nuclear engineers who have either a B.S., M.S., or Ph.D. in physics, mechanical engineering, chemical engineering, electrical engineering, or civil engineering Radiochemists Employees working in the capacity of as radiochemists who have either a B.S., M.S., or Ph.D. in chemistry, radiochemistry, or nuclear chemistry Health Physicists Employees working in the capacity as health physicists (radiation protection) who have either an A.S., B.S., M.S., or Ph.D. in physics or health physics It is important to recognize that this survey research captures employees working as nuclear engineers, radiochemists, and health physicists. This is distinctly different from capturing employees with degree training specifically in these fields. As the breakdown illustrates, 7 This is the definition of nuclear workforce provided by SCUREF to be analyzed. Nuclear Energy University Program Workforce Analysis 8

10 employees working in these fields might have educational backgrounds in one of several different related areas. The survey was distributed to vendors, national laboratories, and universities in the United States who employ the nuclear workforce as defined above. The original survey instrument is displayed in its entirety in Appendix A at the end of this report and Table 1 below displays the number of surveyed organizations by type. Table 1: Total Nu m ber of Surveyed Organizations Organization Type Total Number of Respondents Total Number Surveyed Percent Response Vendors % National Laboratories % Universities % Total % The overall response rate in this survey was 31.8 percent, with cooperation being highest among universities. All demand estimates reported in Tables 2-6 reflect the combined results of the 2009 survey conducted by the NEI and the Division of Research survey conducted for this report. The Division of Research survey results were statistically adjusted to reflect the total survey population. The methodology for this process is detailed in Appendix B. Table 2 illustrates the number of current employees working in nuclear engineering, radiochemistry, and health physics and the number of current job openings. Table 2: Number of Current Employees in the Nuclear Workforce Field Number of Current Employees Number of Current Employee Openings Nuclear Engineering 3, Radiochemistry 1, Health Physics 3, Nuclear Energy University Programs Workforce Analysis 9

11 Field Number of Current Employees Number of Current Employee Openings Total 8, Between the number of current employees and the number of current employee openings, this report estimates that there is a current demand for approximately 8,602 nuclear workforce employees in the United States. The majority of this demand is in the fields of nuclear engineering and health physics. Also captured is a breakout of the educational background of current employees that can be seen in Table 3. Table 3: Percentage of Workforce by Degree Field and Level Employees working in Nuclear Science and Engineering Nuclear Eng. Mechanical Eng. Chemical Eng. Electrical Eng. Civil Eng. Physics Chemistry Radiochemistry Nuclear Chemistry Physics Health Physics Bachelors 31.88%*** 3.55% 1.24% 6.21% 9.76% 0.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.89% 0.53% 2.13% Masters 0.71% 1.06% 0.71% 1.24% 8.51% 0.00% 0.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.71% 0.00% Doctorate 15.08% 0.35% 0.71% 0.53% 3.02% 4.08% 1.24% 0.35% 0.18% 2.13% 2.84% Subtotal 47.67% 4.97% 2.66% 7.98% 21.29% 4.26% 1.42% 0.35% 1.06% 3.37% 4.97% ***This percentage reflects workers with either a bachelor s degree in nuclear engineering or an associate s degree in nuclear technology. Data from the NEI prevent separating the two. The bulk of the nuclear workforce appears to be comprised of employees with backgrounds in nuclear engineering and civil engineering (47.67% and 21.29% respectively). As demand for the nuclear workforce increases in the future, these educational backgrounds will also be in high demand as a result. The current demand for the nuclear workforce will change over the next decade and part of the survey is designed to capture hiring projections for this anticipated increase in the workforce. Table 4 below displays the hiring projections by 2020 excluding any openings resulting from current employees who may retire. Table 4: Number of Employees Expected to be Hired by 2020 (not due to retirement) Field Employees Nuclear Engineering 8,161 Nuclear Energy University Program Workforce Analysis 10

12 Field Employees Radiochemistry 457 Health Physics 913 Total 9,531 These results clearly show more than a doubling of the nuclear workforce over the next decade if the anticipated demand among employers is accurate. With current employment needs at approximately 8,602 and expectations of a need for an additional 9,531 employees by 2020, an increase in the nuclear workforce of 110 percent is not unreasonable. Even under the assumption that employers may overstate their need for workers, there will still be a sizable increase in the nuclear workforce by The final part of the survey asks participants to estimate the number of employees they expect to retire by Table 5 displays these results. Table 5: Number of Employees Expected to retire by 2020 Field Employees Nuclear Engineering 710 Radiochemistry 218 Health Physics 785 Total 1,714 The combination of results in Tables 2-5 shows that the anticipated increase in the nuclear workforce among employers over the next decade relative to current demand levels will be very high. In all, from a current estimated nuclear workforce demand of 8,602 employees, in the next ten years this number will increase to 19,847 workers an increase of approximately 130 percent. One of the unexpected results was that only 21 percent (1,714/8,109) of current employees are expected to retire by This is a significant difference from the NEI s estimate that close to half of the overall nuclear workforce is expected to retire over the same time period. Nuclear Energy University Programs Workforce Analysis 11

13 Nevertheless, the age of the workforce is relatively young. The Division of Research survey finds that the average age of an employee in the nuclear workforce is 44.7 years, while the average age at retirement is 63.5 years. Given this pending increase in the nuclear workforce, what can be said about workforce training? In other words, will nuclear engineering programs produce enough graduates to keep up with the increase in demand? To answer this question, data were acquired from the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education on the number of U.S. graduates in nuclear engineering at the Bachelors, Masters, and Doctoral levels going back to the year Table 6 displays future projections that the Division of Research prepared based on these data along with the increased demand for workers by degree. Table 6: Education Projections Nuclear Engineering Degrees Projection of Total Number of Graduates by 2020 Projection of Total Increase in Demand for Graduates by ,423 8,871 Note: See Appendix B for detailed methodology Over the next ten years, the Division of Research projects there to be a combined total of 10,423 graduates in nuclear engineering programs across the board (B.S., M.S., and Ph.D.), which meets the increased demand of 8,871 workers (anticipated demand for nuclear engineers plus retiring workers). This does not take into account workers who leave the nuclear industry for reasons other than retirement, which suggests that this figure could understate the actual increase in demand. Although the Division of Research workforce survey suggests a minor increase in demand for workers with associate s degrees in nuclear technology, the NEI reports that a majority of the utilities projected hires in the nuclear workforce in the next ten years will be for nuclear technologists. In total, of the 9,531 a majority of the increase in the nuclear workforce over the next decade will result from an increase in demand for nuclear technologists. Nuclear Energy University Program Workforce Analysis 12

14 expected hires across the entire nuclear workforce in the next decade (not due to retirement), approximately 70 percent of them are expected to be nuclear technologists. It is important to recognize that a majority of the increase in the nuclear workforce over the next decade will result from an increase in demand for nuclear technologists. Conclusions The demand for the nuclear workforce over the next ten years will increase substantially due to a variety of factors, including increased public support, government initiatives, and population growth that drives a need for energy of all kinds. This study combined the results of two surveys of the nuclear workforce and education data from the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Technology in order to quantify the increased demand and to determine whether any major shortage in the nuclear workforce will exist in the next decade. The results of this study suggest that while there will be a massive increase demand for the nuclear workforce as a whole (on the order of a 130 percent increase), approximately 70 percent of this increase will come from an rise in demand for employees with associate s degrees in nuclear technology. This increase takes into account the estimated 21 percent of the nuclear workforce that will retire by While the NEI suggests that half of the nuclear workforce will retire over the next ten years, this survey does not confirm the magnitude of that estimate. Finally, when comparing the increase in demand of the nuclear workforce to available education data, this study finds that U.S. universities are estimated to graduate a sufficient number of students with B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees in nuclear engineering to meet projected demand. Education data on the total number of graduates with associate s degrees in nuclear technology are not available, so the extent of the projected shortage for these workers cannot be determined. Nuclear Energy University Programs Workforce Analysis 13

15 Works Cited Committee on Nuclear Engineering Education, National Research Council. U.S. Nuclear Engineering Education: Status and Prospects. Washington, DC: National Academy, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, and Bechtel Power Corporation. U.S. Job Creation Due to Nuclear Power Resurgence in the United States. Publication. Vol Was, Gary S., and William R. Martin, eds. Manpower Supply and Demand in the Nuclear Industry. Publication. Nuclear Engineering Department Heads Organization, Nuclear Energy University Program Workforce Analysis 14

16 Appendix A Survey Instrument Workforce Survey Thank you for agreeing to participate in the U.S. Department of Energy - Office of Nuclear Energy s (DOE-NE) Nuclear Workforce Analysis. Please take your time to complete this survey. The research will aid in determining where and how government resources will be used to support nuclear workforce development. The University of South Carolina s Darla Moore School of Business is assisting the Office of Nuclear Energy in this effort. Over the next decade, we expect to experience an increased need for nuclear professionals in a variety of fields. Demand for workers in nuclear energy is increasing, and about half of the nuclear-related workforce will be eligible to retire in the next ten years. We are conducting this study so that we can implement strategies to assist industry, government and the universities in meeting their nuclear workforce requirements. Please note that the information you provide will not be directly attributed to any individual respondent. All individual agency/organization/company information will be kept confidential. Only aggregate data will be used and presented in the results of the survey. The first few questions are about your organization. What is the name of your organization? In what city and state do most of your employees work? What is the average age of all of your employees? What is the average retirement age of a company employee? Nuclear Energy University Programs Workforce Analysis 15

17 The next few questions give us more detail about your employees. In this section, we want to know how many employees you have in each specified field. Further, we want to know the highest degree attainment within each field. How many current employees do you have working in each field listed below? How many open positions are currently unfilled? If you have none of either, please record 0. Number of current employees Number of open positions currently unfilled Nuclear Engineering Radiochemistry Health Physics Consider the highest degree obtained by each of your current employees working in nuclear engineering. Please indicate how many of these employees have the following as his/her highest degree. Please indicate the number of current employees with the specified degree. Nuclear Mechanical Chemical Electrical Civil Physics Eng./Tech. Eng. Eng. Eng. Eng. Associate s Bachelor s Master s Doctorate Of the total number of current employees working in nuclear engineering (that you listed above), how many do you expect to retire in the specified time periods? Number retiring in Within one year More than one and up through 5 years More than 5 up through 10 years Nuclear Energy University Program Workforce Analysis 16

18 Consider the highest degree obtained by each of your current employees working in radiochemistry. Please indicate how many of these employees have the following as his/her highest degree. Please indicate the number of current employees with the specified degree. Chemistry Radiochemistry Nuclear Chemistry Bachelor s Master s Doctorate Of the total number of current employees working in radiochemistry (that you listed above), how many do you expect to retire in the specified time periods? Number retiring in Within one year More than one and up through 5 years More than 5 up through 10 years Consider the highest degree obtained by each of your current employees working in health physics. Please indicate how many of these employees have the following as his/her highest degree. Please indicate the number of current employees with the specified degree. Physics Health Physics Bachelor s Master s Doctorate Of the total number of current employees working in health physics (that you listed above), how many do you expect to retire in the specified time periods? Number retiring in Within one year More than one and up through 5 years More than 5 up through 10 years Nuclear Energy University Programs Workforce Analysis 17

19 How many unfilled positions do you currently have available that could be filled by an employee with each of the following degrees (in nuclear engineering/technology)? In other words, how many positions are currently available that persons with the following degrees would qualify for? (Note: the position need not specifically be in nuclear engineering/technology the nuclear engineering/technology degree must merely qualify the employee to fill the position) How many? Associate s Degree in nuclear technology Bachelor s Degree in nuclear engineering Master s Degree in nuclear engineering Doctorate Degree in nuclear engineering How many unfilled positions do you currently have available that could be filled by an employee with each of the following degrees (in radiochemistry)? In other words, how many positions are currently available that persons with the following degrees would qualify for? (Note: the position need not specifically be in radiochemistry the radiochemistry degree must merely qualify the employee to fill the position) How many? Bachelor s Degree in radiochemistry Master s Degree in radiochemistry Doctorate Degree in radiochemistry How many unfilled positions do you currently have available that could be filled by an employee with each of the following degrees (in health physics)? In other words, how many positions are currently available that persons with the following degrees would qualify for? (Note: the position need not specifically be in health physics the health physics degree must merely qualify the employee to fill the position) How many? Associate s Degree in health physics Bachelor s Degree in health physics Master s Degree in health physics Nuclear Energy University Program Workforce Analysis 18

20 Doctorate Degree in health physics The next few questions address your opinion about your organization s demand for employees in nuclear engineering, radiochemistry, and health physics in the near future. Please answer these questions even if you do not currently have any employees in these categories. Consider the next ten years. Please indicate how many positions will become available (excluding positions due to retirees) that your organization will be able to fill with a person holding each of the following degrees? In other words, how many positions will be available that persons with the following degrees would qualify for? (Note: the position need not specifically be in nuclear engineering/technology the nuclear engineering/technology degree must merely qualify the employee to fill the position). How many? Associate s Degree in nuclear technology Bachelor s Degree in nuclear engineering Master s Degree in nuclear engineering Doctorate Degree in nuclear engineering Consider the next ten years. Please indicate how many positions will become available (excluding positions due to retirees) that your organization will be able to fill with a person holding each of the following degrees? In other words, how many positions will be available that persons with the following degrees would qualify for? (Note: the position need not specifically be in radiochemistry the radiochemistry degree must merely qualify the employee to fill the position). How many? Bachelor s Degree in radiochemistry Master s Degree in radiochemistry Doctorate Degree in radiochemistry Nuclear Energy University Programs Workforce Analysis 19

21 Consider the next ten years. Please indicate how many positions will become available (excluding positions due to retirees) that your organization will be able to fill with a person holding each of the following degrees? In other words, how many positions will be available that persons with the following degrees would qualify for? (Note: the position need not specifically be in health physics the health physics degree must merely qualify the employee to fill the position). How many? Associate s Degree in health physics Bachelor s Degree in health physics Master s Degree in health physics Doctorate Degree in health physics Nuclear Energy University Program Workforce Analysis 20

22 Appendix B Statistical Methodologies As noted in Table 1, the overall participation rate of the organizations surveyed for the Division of Research survey was 31.8 percent that is, out of 176 organizations surveyed, 56 responded. Thus, the responses to each survey question were assumed to be 31.8 percent of the value of the whole population and were scaled accordingly. For example, if the survey found that there would be a need for 100 workers with a B.S. in nuclear engineering over the next ten years, the value would be scaled and reported to be 314.! Table 2 reports the number of employees currently working in the nuclear workforce and the number of current job openings. These values were obtained by summing the figures reported by the NEI and the scaled figures of the Division of Research survey. For example, the value 1,263 represents the number of current employees working in radiochemistry. This represents , where 156 is the total number of reported employees working in radiochemistry by the NEI and 352 is the total number of reported employees working in radiochemistry from the Division of Research survey. Table 3 combines both surveys and reports the percentage of the nuclear workforce by degree field and level. These values were simply computed by dividing the number of reported workers in each degree field and level by the total number of workers. Table 4 reports the number of employees who are expected to be hired by 2020, excluding retirees. These figures were calculated in approximately the same manner as those in Table 2; the figures reported by the NEI were added to the scaled figures reported in the Division of Research survey. The one difference is that the NEI figures were scaled up by 25 percent. The NEI data only projects hiring needs out to five years. This report conservatively assumes that an additional 25 percent will be hired within an additional five years and thus scales up the NEI figures appropriately. The assumption is also made that hiring projections generated from the NEI do not take into account expected retirees. Table 5 uses this same methodology. Finally, Table 6 calculates the projection of the number of graduates with nuclear engineering degrees by 2020 and the projection for the total increase in demand for graduates by The latter is simply calculated by summing the number of nuclear engineering employees expected to be hired by 2020 (not due to retirement) with the number of nuclear engineers expected to retire by This calculation amounts to summing 8,161 and 710, which yields 8,871. The former is calculated based on data from the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education. They provided data on the total number of annual graduates with B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees in nuclear engineering from 2000 to The average annual change in the number of graduates for each degree was calculated and then used to project the number of graduates from 2009 out to For example, if there were 100 students who graduated with a B.S. degree in nuclear engineering in 2009 and the average annual change in the number of graduates was 10, then the projected number of graduates in 2010 would be 110, in 2011 it would be 120, and so on. These projections were made through 2020 for each of the three degrees. The projections were then summed, which totaled the reported value of 10,423. Nuclear Energy University Programs Workforce Analysis 21