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1 15 for FOR The Numbers That 15 Mattered in The Trends to Watch in 2015

2 2 15 for Re-Engineering Audience Research 2014 in Numbers: Digital Timeline 06 How 2014 s Big Stories Will Drive 2015 s Big Trends CONTENTS

3 15 for in Numbers: WORLD CUP in Numbers: Social Networks and Messaging Apps for 15: the Trends to Watch in the Year Ahead E34 Generation V E40 Tablet Fatigue? E46 The New Tech Elite E52 Facebook Gets Passive E58 TV.com E64 China Rising E70 The Slow Death of Search E76 Wearable Tech Gets Mainstream E84 Android Excels E90 RIP SMS? E96 The Shared Internet 102 The Battle for Content 108 Multi-Networking 114 Game On In Asia 118 Track Me If You Can

4 4 15 for 15 Re-engineering audience research Tom Smith, CEO GlobalWebIndex

5 15 for 15 5 I founded GlobalWebIndex with the goal of it becoming The Global Standard for Digital Audience Insight. As an experienced agency professional, I knew the limitations of existing data and had seen first-hand the problems of legacy providers as well as analytics and industry tracking simply not being fit for purpose in the digital age. Worse, they were (and still are) selling the digital marketing potential of the internet and its users massively short. As our white paper The Missing Billion sets out, this remains a huge problem today: there are a billion people mainly in emerging markets who are currently being wiped off the digital map. In 2015, we will continue to push these limits. We ll not only link GWI core data to campaigns, site visits and programmatic inventory via our GWIQ product, we ll be enriching it with social data from Twitter and Facebook, as well as third-party digital data sources. We see this blend of actively collected market research and passive big data as the future to audience insight and we continue to pursue this vision rigorously providing one data set that connects strategy, implementation and reporting. We ll also be expanding our research program to cover new markets as well as incorporating mobileonly internet users. To achieve our goal, I knew we would have to re-engineer how audience research works. It meant providing data on all aspects of a consumer s digital life in one data set, delivering global reach at massive scale. It required us to publish data that was a week (rather than months or years) old, which was collected a minimum of four times a year and which covered all connected devices. And, crucially, I knew it meant going beyond simple passive behavioral metrics to explore needs, wants and in an age of all-pervasive social media active contributions. I also knew it meant collecting data from people, not browsers. We had to go beyond simple demographics to cover any nuance of an audience including attitudes, passions, motivations, work culture, home life and product purchasing. It has always amazed me that digital marketing was supposed to be a revolution in targeting, yet in the majority of cases we are reduced to reporting on age and gender. To do all of these things, we ve had to push the limits of market research. The result of our work is that we ve had incredible traction, with revenue growth exceeding 200% in 2014 alone. Today, tens of thousands of digital marketing professionals are using GWI to deliver exceptional digital marketing on a global scale. And it s a number that grows every single day. The other side of our goal is to make our data as accessible as possible, enabling a wide range of user types to benefit. Without doubt, 2014 has been the most important year in this journey, with the team rolling out some incredible products including an all-new PRO Platform (which, bar none, is the best analysis tool I ve ever used). We also launched an API, enabling clients to plug our audience data into their tools and dashboards, as well as a whole new trends function that provides incredible reports, infographics and commentary on the ever-changing digital market. You ll find the best of this new offering inside this publication, where we showcase the trends that all digital marketers need to keep on their radar in the year ahead. We work very hard here to deliver constant innovation and one of the reasons we ve remained independent is that we have been free to execute and deliver to our clients on a timescale impossible in large organizations. This is a rate of change we consider fundamental in the ever-evolving world of digital behavior and marketing. We look forward to working with you to innovate in 2015 and beyond.

6 6 15 for 15 There s one question I m asked more frequently than any other: How do you spot a trend? The answer is fairly simple. Despite the everchanging nature of the digital landscape, there are two fairly dependable constants to rely on here. Firstly, trends don t simply materialize out of thin air; they have a far longer trajectory than that. Secondly, only rarely are they the result of never-seen-before behaviors or impossibleto-predict circumstances; whether they grow quickly or slowly and whether they impact a single country/region or become truly global most digital trends are driven by a combination of ever-more sophisticated tech capabilities and ever-evolving consumer needs and wants. Unlike some, we ve not set out to create 15 brand-new trends that you ve never heard of before. Rather, we ve selected 15 key areas which will be generating the biggest digital headlines, and exerting some of the strongest influences on marketing spend, in the year ahead. Some of these trends will be driven by the arrival of new products, by advances in tech capabilities or by increases in audience sizes. Others are the result of existing trends crossing into the mainstream, gaining a new sense of momentum or reaching crucial tipping points. But pretty much all of them have implications which stretch far beyond the end of 2015 (stop and think about it and the notion that trends have a life-span of just twelve months is utterly non-sensical; our 15 for 15 already exist now and will continue to exist in 2016 it s simply the right time and context for them to enjoy a particularly important year in 2015). How 2014 s big stories It s in this context that we ve approached our 15 trends for By analyzing data from 32 different countries across multiple waves of research (the most recent of which was collected just a week ago), we ve chosen our stories based on a detailed, multi-market understanding of current trends and behaviors in will drive 2015 s big trends

7 15 for 15 With that in mind, let s start by exploring the year gone-by. What do the events and numbers of the last twelve months tell us about the year ahead? Above all, 2014 was a year in which acquisitions and new landmarks were only rarely out of the spotlight. Perhaps the biggest surprise of all came back in February when having been unsuccessful in its attempts to woo Snapchat Facebook announced its multi-billion dollar purchase of WhatsApp. But it certainly wasn t alone in wanting a piece of the messaging action; Jason Mander, Head of Trends GlobalWebIndex by the time Mark Zuckerberg and co were handing over $19 billion, Rakuten had already added Viber to its portfolio and subsequently we ve seen Instagram launch Bolt, Facebook force its users to migrate to Messenger and WeChat develop new brand partnerships. As we write, Yahoo is rumored to be investing in Snapchat while, next year, Google is expected to become the latest name to enter the fray with the launch of its very own Messenger service. 7

8 8 15 for 15 That competition has quickly become so fierce within the mobile messaging space is testament to just how rapidly social networking behaviors have been evolving. But this brings clear implications for the way we ll be communicating elsewhere in 2015, a theme we explore in our RIP SMS and Facebook Gets Passive trends. As 2014 drew to a close, big-name (and big-money) acquisitions hit the headlines once again: Amazon bought Twitch while Microsoft purchased Minecraftdevelopers Mojang. Indicative not only of gaming s current value and ubiquity, it also reflects a gradual shift towards streaming (with ownership models being challenged by those based on access; see The Battle for Content). So too does it illustrate the rising importance attached to platforms. Content might now be King but platforms have quickly become the King-makers with tech giants willing to spend considerable money to gain access to the young and affluent audiences who use them. It s also worth noting that global gaming revenues are set to swell still further in 2015; this year s repeal of the games console ban in China opens up a huge new audience (for more on this, see Game On in Asia). Alongside acquisitions, 2014 brought its fair share of product announcements including Facebook s Atlas ad platform, which breaks new territory in the mobile space (see Track Me If You Can) as well as Twitter s plans to implement a buy button. Without doubt, though, it was Apple which captured the most attention here; from its much-awaited larger-screen iphone 6 models to its Apple Watch, we can expect these devices to make waves over the next twelve months. Whether it will help the company to re-gain ground on Android or push wearables into truly mainstream status will be key areas to watch (see Android Excels and Always-On Consumers for more on these topics).

9 15 for 15 9 Elsewhere, 2014 heralded a number of important landmarks. It was, for example, the first year where three quarters of internet users went online via mobiles and over a third via tablets; we discuss the future prospects for both devices in our Tablet Fatigue trend. We also had Netflix passing the 50 million paid-subscriber mark (see TV.com) and WhatsApp eventually overtaking Facebook Messenger to become the most popular chat app globally. And, towards the year s end, Alibaba achieved the largest ever IPO a testament to the rising fortunes of Chinese tech firms more generally (see China Rising). For GlobalWebIndex, though, the last twelve months saw a milestone of particular significance: the collection of 5 years worth of data on the digital consumer. Across our 16 waves of research so far spanning mid-2009 to the end of 2014 some of the biggest shifts show just how much behaviors have changed in the 10s (and will continue to do so as we approach the middle-point of the decade). Nowhere is this clearer than in relation to dating and social networking sites; among the 30+ different types of site tracked by GWI covering everything from search engines and price comparison services to brand/ retail platforms and online encyclopedias it s these two categories which, over the last five years, have seen the biggest proportional increases of all in terms of visitor numbers. Between Q and Q2 2014, there was in fact a +196% rise in the numbers visiting online dating sites each month (one of the reasons, no doubt, why IAC/InterActive Corp the owner of Match.com and OK Cupid increased its stake in dating app Tinder back in March and then acquired HowAboutWe in July). And it must be pretty telling that social networks saw the next highest increase (up by +178% over the same period); as we ve become more and more comfortable communicating with each other online, virtual relationships really have soared. It s why the Multi-Networking trend will flourish still further next year; we re using a combination of sites and conversation channels, rather than limiting ourselves to just one or two of them.

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11 15 for GWI s figures also show just how rapid the ascent of mobile has been; while the rising fortunes of this device are of course well-known, the numbers can still make for some pretty striking reading. Across the 32 markets surveyed by GlobalWebIndex, the size of the mobile internet audience has more than doubled in the last three years (passing a billion people back at the start of 2014). That this is fundamentally changing the way people use the internet can be in little doubt (a theme we explore further in The Slow Death of Search). Mobiles have also become by far the most popular device for second-screening, used by a majority of online adults. As recently as 2013, laptops and mobile phones were tied for pole position; now, phones have opened up an 11-point lead. Globally, it s in fast-growth nations where internet populations are increasing at the biggest year-on-year rates that mobiles have made a particularly important contribution, bringing millions of individuals online for the first time. If we compare growth in online population sizes over the last five years in markets like Sweden (+5%) and Germany (+8%) with the equivalent figures in places such as the Philippines (+556%) or Indonesia (+449%), the scale of the opportunity afforded by mobile is abundantly clear. This is one of the many reasons why digital investments in 2015 cannot be based on headline internet penetration rates alone particularly as online populations in fast-growth markets tend to be highly engaged and active on the internet. Rather than playing catch-up with more established markets, consumers in these nations are forging their own trends something we address in The New Tech Elite. Critically, two of the behaviors which cause the biggest complications for accurate audience measurement are most pronounced in these fast-growth nations. Firstly, there s the significant minorities who are turning to VPNs and Proxy Servers to access the internet; whether to overcome geo-restrictions or to stay anonymous, much of this audience can either become invisible or be incorrectly geo-allocated to markets like the US (see Generation V). Secondly, and just as significantly, large numbers of internet users are sharing the devices they use to access the internet. While this is somewhat inevitable in relation to PCs, it s also pronounced for tablets and mobiles (despite the latter normally being considered a highly personal device). Thus, the notion that one device = one user simply does not reflect the multi-device approach that people are adopting to getting online (see The Shared Internet). From market to market, arguably the most striking trend to emerge from GWI s long-term data is the growing dominance of the internet within our daily lives a subject which is much discussed but only rarely quantified. GWI s stats here are pretty compelling. In 26 of our 32 countries, people are now consuming more of their media online each day than they are via traditional channels; on average, the daily total has now hit 6.09 hours, up from 5.55 hours in Once again, though, the biggest story here is the rise of mobiles. In terms of hours, daily engagement with the mobile internet has risen quickly from 1.24 in 2012 to 1.81 in Mobiles are also capturing a bigger share of our total online time up from 22% to 30% over the same period. From a global perspective, then, it s not just that more and more people are getting online each year. It s that they re using a wider range of devices to do so, are spending a greater amount of their time on the internet and are carrying out a growing number of activities. And with this shift from offline to online showing no signs of abating, truly understanding your online audiences in 2015 will become even more vital than it already is now.

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13 15 for Digital Timeline Tracking the year s most important digital stories and events

14 14 15 for 15 JAN FEB MARCH Snapchat defends turning down Facebook s offer Top Markets for Snapchat: Total Teens UK 14% 46% USA 14% 42% Ireland 14% 42% Canada 12% 47% Australia 11% 40% Data Privacy Day 56% of global internet users are concerned about the internet eroding my personal privacy up from 48% in 2010 Apple Mac turns 30 Top 10 Markets for Apple Mac: 12% Australia 8% Ireland 12% USA 8% UK 11% Canada 7% Hong Kong 10% Singapore 6% UAE 10% Sweden 6% Netherlands 20th anniversary of Yahoo being founded % monthly visitors to Yahoo by region: 65% Latin America 62% Asia Pacific 61% North America 58% Middle East and Africa 32% Europe Facebook 10th anniversary In 2014, 82% of internet users outside of China have a Facebook account, 75% say they visit the site each month and 47% describe themselves as active users Rakuten buys Viber 8% use Viber each month rising to a third or more in Philippines, Ireland, UAE and Vietnam Facebook buys WhatsApp Usage of WhatsApp (among mobile audience): Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Outside of China, its usage has hit 39% Flickr celebrates 10th anniversary % visiting Flickr each month, by age: 16 to 24 13% 25 to 34 17% 35 to 44 14% 45 to 54 8% 55 to 64 5% Turkey attempts to block Twitter 36% of Turkish internet users are now connecting to the internet via VPNs up from 29% in Q % of this group say they do this to access restricted sites like Twitter. Internet turns 25 Fastest Rising Internet Populations in Last 5 Years: Philippines 556% Indonesia 449% South Africa 426% India 240% Russia 102% Argentina 90% Vietnam 85% Saudi Arabia 83% UAE 77% Mexico 74% In comparison, the Swedish internet population has grown by just 5% during the same period Oscar selfie retweeted 2 million times during ceremony 10% of internet users say they have retweeted a branded microblog post in the last month

15 15 for APRIL MAY JUN A third of internet users going online via tablets Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Microsoft and Nokia merge In 2014, 20% of mobile users said they had a Nokia handset. In 2009, the figure was 34%. Gmail celebrates its 10th anniversary Vic Gundotra leaves Google+ 53% of internet users now have a Google+ account, up from 42% in Microsoft stops support for XP % using the following OS: Windows 7 50% Windows XP 23% Windows 8 16% Windows Vista 5% ebay hacked, highlighting privacy issues % internet users who did the following last month: Used private browsing window 46% Deleted cookies 41% Used ad blocker services 29% Used anti tracking tools 18% 36% of internet users visit ebay each month, with Germany (71%) and the UK (65%) the top markets Mark Zuckerberg turns 30 - as Facebook is oldest social platform Age profile of Facebook active users: % % % % % WeChat subject to censorship from authorities 84% of mobile internet users in China are using WeChat each month Amazon unveils Fire Phone Currently, the mobile handset market is dominated by Samsung (36%) Google Glass available to buy in UK UK USA % have used wearable tech already 9% 13% % interested in doing so in the future 30% 33% Apple unveils ios 8 % online adults using following mobile operating systems: Android 55% ios 16% Windows Phone 5% Vodafone reveals governments in six countries have direct links to communications on its network 65% of smartphone owners are concerned about how their data is being used by companies

16 16 15 for 15 JULY AUG SEP Netflix passes 50 million paying subscribers 58% of internet users say they have subscribed to a video on-demand service such as Netflix, or are interested in doing so in the future Twitter sees a record 35.6 million tweets during Germany s shock 7-1 demolition of Brazil in the World Cup Amazon celebrates 20th anniversary Amazon s top 10 markets (% visiting each month) UK 78% Germany 76% USA 74% Italy 66% India 63% Canada 60% Japan 60% Ireland 59% France 51% China 45% Microsoft announces job cuts at Nokia % who: Have owned Nokia handset 42% Currently own Nokia handset 15% Would consider buying a Nokia handset 12% Google IPO 10th anniversary 50% of internet users are now using Google via mobile each month Facebook removes messaging from main app % internet users using Facebook Messenger Q Q Australia 12% 18% Sweden 14% 22% UK 13% 26% Mobile Internet hits 75% Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % Apple and Samsung agree to end patent dispute outside of US 36% own Samsung handset 19% own iphone handset Orkut closes Just 4% of global internet users were actively using Orkut in 2014 peaking at 13% in India ipod Classic withdrawn 74% of mobile users say their handset has a music player up from 65% in 2010 Apple Watch + iphone 6 announced 64% of online adults say they have used, or are interested in using, a piece of wearable tech such as a smart watch or wristband Alibaba flotation 83% of Chinese internet users bought a product online last month higher than in any other country Twitter unveils Buy button % who have purchased a product online within the last month: All Internet Users Active Twitter Users Via Any Device 67% 75% Via PC/Laptop 62% 68% Via Mobile 38% 47% Via Tablet 17% 27% Amazon buys Twitch 49% of online adults visit Amazon each month - with 45% of them expressing a strong interest in gaming

17 15 for OCT NOV DEC 10th anniversary of first banner ad Apple plans to introduce new subscription offer on the Beats Music streaming service % of internet users who have paid for a. Music streaming Music subscription Download Q % 22% Q % 22% Netflix announces the development of original films to be screened online at the same time as they arrive in the cinema 57% of internet users say they watched a full-length film via a PC, mobile or tablet last month Anti-Facebook social network Ello reported to be receiving 37,000 requests to join per hour Facebook Messenger reported to be introducing person-to-person payments feature Globally, more than 50% of Messenger users say they bought a product via their mobile last month Yahoo rumored to be investing in Snapchat 30% of Snapchat s users are in the US 50% still live with their parents Facebook launches Tor Browser version 3% of internet users say they use VPNs to access the internet via Tor Browsers Spotify royalties in Europe overtake earnings via itunes 8% globally say they used Spotify last month - peaking at 39% in Sweden Snapchat funding round values it at 7.5 billion Fastest growing apps in last 6 months: Snapchat 56% Facebook Messenger 52% Instagram 47% Singles Day in China SnapCash and Facebook At Work announced YouTube and Firefox partner for search Cyber Monday % in US who bought a product online last month: Via any Device 65% Via PC/laptop 61% Via Mobile 24% Via Tablet 13% 10th anniversary of news aggregator Digg Tumblr announces sponsored apps And overtakes Instagram to become fastest growing social network with +120% rise in active users in last six months BlackBerry Classic smartphones launch 2.7% using BlackBerry OS by end of 2014 PlayStation 20th Anniversary % with following consoles in their household: PS3 18% Wii 16% Xbox 14% PS4 7% Xbox One 5% Wii U 5%

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19 15 for THE WORLD CUP During the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil, GlobalWebIndex was surveying members of its Real-Time Research Panels in Brazil, the UK and the USA to understand viewer engagement behaviors and sponsor recognition levels. Here are the some of the key numbers that mattered.

20 20 15 for 15 SPONSORSHIP BEHAVIORS The MOST recognized sponsors by the end of the tournament were: Coca-Cola 50% McDonald s 49% Visa 41% Consistently, more than 95% in Brazil followed each of their team s matches in some form. Engagement WENT DOWN with each match in the UK and trended UPWARDS in USA as the USMNT performed well. Sponsorship awareness levels were MUCH HIGHER in Brazil peaking at 79% for COCA-COLA. ALL official sponsors out-performed rivals, with Coca-Cola, McDonald s, Hyundai, Johnson & Johnson, Budweiser & Emirates being at least TWICE as recognizable as their closest competitors. However, Adidas (36%) was only just ahead of Nike (31%) Brands most likely to be mistakenly Nike 31% picked as official partners: MasterCard 25% Samsung 19% In BRAZIL, virtually all sponsors saw a notable increase in recognition levels between the start and end of the World Cup - e.g. Budweiser +10%, Sony +15% and McDonald s +20%. This did NOT happen in the UK or USA. % following matches Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 UK 82% 80% 74% USA 57% 64% 67% LIVE TV BROADCASTS dominated viewing behaviors in all 3 countries, but online streaming was much more of a force in America. The HOME was the overwhelmingly favorite viewing location for World Cup games 8 in 10 in England were watching from there.

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23 15 for WORLD CUP: SOCIAL TRENDS Facebook was the most popular social network during World Cup matches (81%) Twitter was used by MORE THAN A THIRD of viewers in all countries. 4 in 10 viewers checked social networks during games to see what others were saying. A QUARTER posted their own updates. FINAL RESULTS were the biggest talking point on social media (74%). But more than 7 in 10 talked about goals and HALF discussed particular players. TOP 10 TWITTER TRENDS AMONG GWI S REAL-TIME PANEL DURING THE WORLD CUP 2014 TOP 10 WORLD CUP TEAMS (BY MENTIONS/TRENDING) AMONG GWI S REAL-TIME PANEL TOP 10 WORLD CUP PLAYERS (BY MENTIONS/TRENDING) AMONG GWI S REAL-TIME PANEL TOP 10 WORLD CUP MANAGERS (BY MENTIONS/TRENDING) AMONG GWI S REAL-TIME PANEL TOP 10 NON-WORLD CUP- RELATED TRENDS AMONG GWI S REAL-TIME PANEL #worldcup Brazil Suarez Van Gaal Wimbledon Brazil England Messi Scolari Ramadan England Argentina Neymar Del Bosque Netflix Argentina Germany Ronaldo Herrera Tumblr Germany Spain Rooney Capello 4th of July Suarez Portugal Robben Prandelli WhatsApp Spain Chile Sanchez Roy Hodgson Transformers Wimbledon Uruguay David Luiz Fernando Santos Starbucks Portugal Costa Rica James Rodriguez Niko Kovac Xbox Messi Ghana Tim Howard Ottmar Hitzfeld Happy Father s Day

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25 15 for SOCIAL NETWORKS & MESSAGING APPS Numbers for the leading players

26 26 15 for 15 Facebook still dominates In the contest between the Big 3 social platforms, Facebook has retained its crown during 2014 and with some comfort. Excluding China, an impressive 82% of adults aged report having an account on the service, a sign of the platform s enduring global reach and social dominance. In fact, account membership stands at 90% in nearly half of the markets surveyed by GWI. In line with wider social trends, Facebook usage is most widespread in fastgrowth markets with Indonesia (96%) and Mexico (95%) posting the best figures of all. Demographics are a partial driver of this; national internet penetrations in such countries are typically much lower than in mature markets, with online populations consequently being relatively young, urban and affluent. Audience sizes can still be vast, though: Indonesia has more than twice the number of Facebook members as the UK, for example. Other factors are at work too, though not least that populations in fast-growth markets continue to attach a greater premium to internet access and a higher status to social networking. Taking second place globally is Google+, a network which performs much more strongly in fast-growth rather than established markets. Indeed, while Google+ membership is not too far behind the equivalent for Facebook in most emerging nations (typically being around 15% lower in places like Indonesia, India, Thailand and Brazil), the gap is much more sizable in markets such as the US, UK and Australia (where it reaches 35-40%). With founder Vic Gundotra having departed the network during 2014, it s clear that he left Google+ with much healthier usage figures than is often recognized. That membership has continued to climb slowly during the last year indicates the rising importance of the social platform as a social layer that connects Google services. Although like-for-like comparisons with Facebook are inevitable, it should be credited with achieving considerable success in establishing an alternative social model. In third place is Twitter, a platform which has usurped Facebook s crown in Japan to become the country s most used network and which boasts membership levels of two thirds or more in Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and India. It has also displaced Google+ in a handful of other markets, including Indonesia, the UK and South Korea. Despite most international social networks being subject to official bans, it s worth noting that (significant) minorities in China nevertheless have accounts on the three platforms, with Google+ (40%) being the most popular of all (thanks in part to Android s popularity in the market). As we discuss later in this report, many are turning to VPNs and Proxy Servers in order to get access; typically, China in fact accounts for a much bigger share of the global social audience than many have previously supposed.

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28 28 15 for 15 WhatsApp rules the messaging space GWI s comment back in February that Facebook s $19 billion purchase of WhatsApp was a smart move has been vindicated through the messaging service s consistent growth throughout By Q2, it had overtaken Facebook s own Messenger service to become the top global chat app, being used by 39% of the mobile audience (excluding China). WhatsApp s headline usage figure does, however, mask some extremely strong variations between markets with engagement ranging from a high of 78% in South Africa to a low of 0% in Japan. But while usage is extremely modest in Facebook s home market of the US (8%), the coverage it gives the network in several fast-growth markets where internet populations are expanding rapidly each year is a clear sign of why the app commanded such a serious price-tag. Inside China, WhatsApp has a minor presence only (4%). In part, this is the result of WeChat s absolute dominance within the Chinese market; a mighty 84% of the country s mobile audience are now using the app and despite the authorities clamping down on certain aspects of mobile messaging its position now seems virtually unchallengeable. No other app comes close to having an audience of such a size within a single market, and that WeChat also has a significant following in India shows why the international prospects for the app are strong. Elsewhere, one of the most headline-grabbing messaging apps of the year has been Snapchat, the service which famously rejected Facebook s buy-out bid but which rumor has it is now on Yahoo s horizon. Despite growth throughout the year, however, it s important to note that Snapchat s following remains modest from a global scale lagging behind WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, Skype, Viber, Line and WeChat with a headline figure of just 7%. The reason it continues to capture our interest is clear, though: it s a question of demographics. Snapchat records its best figures in some of the most scrutinized markets, led by the UK (14%), USA (14%), Ireland (14%), Canada (12%) and Australia (11%). What s more, usage in these countries among the key teen segment is much, much higher approaching 50% in the UK and Canada and above 40% in the other three markets. For targeting certain demographics in certain markets, then, Snapchat represents a highly attractive option. And remains a serious thorn in Facebook s side.

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33 15 for FOR 15 The trends to watch in the year ahead.

34 34 15 for 15 #1 Generation V

35 15 for We re all used to seeing ad campaigns which target Gen X, Gen Y or increasingly Gen Z. But there s a new generation on the block who deserve just as much attention. Step forward Generation V: the millions of internet users across the world who are deploying Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) or Proxy Servers to get online. For anyone unfamiliar with these tools, they allow people to bypass traditional connections and tracking methods to use the internet via a remotely located server; essentially, it s as if people are entering the internet discretely via a side door rather than through the main entrance with the servers in question often based in nations like the US, Ireland, Sweden or the Netherlands rather than the user s home country. To date, VPN usage has normally been viewed as a fairly niche behavior something that s largely the preserve of tech geeks. But our latest research shows that it s already transitioned into a fairly mainstream trend; in 2014, more than a quarter (28%) of internet users globally said they d used one. Across the 32 countries in which GWI conducts its quarterly research, that figure translates to more than 420 million people aged Hardly niche, then. And with VPNs being readily available to download, easy to use and often completely free of charge, this is a number that s only going to go in one direction. Question: When you access the internet, do you ever do so using a VPN (virtual private network) or proxy server? Base: Internet users aged Source: GlobalWebIndex 2014

36 36 15 for 15 There are multiple reasons for using VPNs and Proxy Servers. Some internet users are simply looking to protect their anonymity, a trend which is particularly pronounced in some of the most mature internet nations like France and Germany. But by far the most popular motivations are the desire to access content or sites which are restricted in one s own country (49%). It s about using BBC iplayer from outside of the UK, for instance. Or accessing that social network/news website which is subject to an official ban something which explains why our data picks up significant audiences in China for sites like Facebook, and why authorities in Turkey found it so tricky to prevent access to Twitter early in Question: Can you please tell us why you use VPNs or proxy servers when browsing the internet? Base: VPN users aged Source: GlobalWebIndex 2014

37 15 for Across the board, GWI s research shows that internet users in fast-growth markets are the most likely to turn to VPNs led by Indonesia (where 41% of 16-64s say they ve used one), Thailand (37%), Brazil (37%), China (36%) and Argentina (34%). Compare that to the US (16%), UK (15%) or Australia (14%) and the difference in engagement is pretty stark. Work out what that means in terms of VPN user numbers in a country like China (169 million) and it becomes more than a little concerning if you re a content provider or advertiser. Above all, VPN usage brings major implications for how we understand web traffic: lots of visitors who are traditionally geo-allocated to the US or other mature markets based on their IP addresses are actually located in fast-growth nations. In particular, our datasets show that large swaths of internet users in Asia Pacific and Latin America are essentially going under the radar when connecting to social networks, using search portals or consuming content / news. If we take a site like Bing.com as an example, data from passive web analytics will typically show that its traffic is dominated by American internet users. In contrast, our actively collected data shows that while the US is still certainly an important market for Bing the biggest share of its audience actually comes from China. Meanwhile, India, Brazil and Indonesia account for significant segments too. Question: When you access the internet, do you ever do so using a VPN (virtual private network) or proxy server? Base: Internet users aged Source: GlobalWebIndex 2014

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39 15 for Key Implications for 2015 VPN usage will increase, especially as knowledge of these tools becomes more widespread. As a result, using passive analytics alone will not give an accurate view of who is visiting your site or being exposed to advertising. It s a similar picture for a range of other sites, including Facebook. Very consistently, then, audiences in mature nations are being overestimated just as those from fast-growth markets are being dramatically under-appreciated. All this means that free or ad-supported content stores are being raided by users from other countries a clear sign of unmet demand and of how willing people are to obtain the content they want. Arguably, though, these trends create their biggest headache for advertisers; each year, VPN usage means that billions of dollars of geo-targeted ad spend is potentially being misdirected. Attempting to block access to content or sites by setting geographical limitations will become more and more futile. Users will find ways to obtain what they want and, in a sense, the internet will become more and more globalized. There is significant, and largely unmet, demand for content among global internet users generally but among those in fast-growth nations in particular. Question: Which of the following sites have you visited in the last month (via any device)? Base: Internet users aged Source: GlobalWebIndex Q For further detail on this subject, please download the following: The Missing Billion (GWI Insight Report) I VPN and Proxy Server Usage (GWI Data Pack) I VPNs and Proxy Servers: Usage Motivations (GWI Data Pack)

40 40 15 for 15 #2 Tablet Fatigue?

41 15 for heralded an important milestone for the tablet device; for the first time, Q2 saw the proportion of adults aged using one to access the internet hit the 33% mark. That represented more than 500 million monthly tablet users across GWI s 32 countries. So, all s looking rosy in the tablet garden, then? Well, not quite. Drill down into the numbers a little further and it s clear that the rate of growth has been slowing for some time now. Between 2011 and 2012, the percentage accessing the internet via tablets nearly doubled (from 9% to 17%). By 2013, it had jumped again to reach 31%. But over the next twelve months, a very different picture emerged: tablet usage climbed by just two percentage points. Still rising, then, but hardly the type of explosive growth to which we d become accustomed. In fact, year-on-year increases in user numbers have dropped from nearly +200% at the start of the decade to less than +15% in So, if the boom days for tablets are over, what s driving this? Examining the profile of current users gives us the best evidence: among early adopters, usage has either stagnated or is in decline. In contrast, it s the groups who were initially quite slow to embrace tablets who are now driving today s modest growth levels. Question: In the past month, from which of the following devices have you accessed the internet either through a web browser or an application? Base: Internet users aged Source: GlobalWebIndex 2014

42 42 15 for 15 If we look at age, for example, it s 25-34s who are the heaviest users (38% in 2014), followed by 35-44s and then the 16-24s. But there s been no substantial growth in any of these three groups over the last year. It s only among 45-54s and 55-64s where historical usage levels have been much lower that we re still seeing increases. Question: In the past month, from which of the following devices have you accessed the internet either through a web browser or an application? Base: Internet users aged Source: GlobalWebIndex 2014

43 15 for It s a similar story for income. Although the popularity of tablets among the top group remains strong (over half are monthly users), there s actually been a decrease in engagement during the last twelve months. Yes, numbers are still rising in the lower and middle quartiles but this is still a pretty crucial trend: with wealthier demographics having been the heaviest initial adopters of tablets, it suggests that long-term owners are using their devices less frequently than they once did. Patterns at a national level add more support for this. The Chinese market is by far the biggest and most important for tablets; it was extremely quick to embrace the device, with 41% of adults now using them (corresponding to a mighty 192 million people). However, there s been a 7% year-on-year decrease in usage. While this shouldn t detract from the fact that the numbers are still ticking upwards in most other countries (even if rather modestly, in some places), the fact that Chinese usage is on the slide suggests once again that early tablet users are no longer quite as enthused with the devices as they once were. Question: In the past month, from which of the following devices have you accessed the internet either through a web browser or an application? Base: Internet users aged Source: GlobalWebIndex 2014

44 44 15 for 15

45 15 for Key Implications for 2015 Overall tablet usage levels will continue to increase in 2015, but the period of dramatic growth is now over and future rises will be more modest. In short, we ll still be using them but on a less frequent basis and for fewer activities. We can reinforce this view by looking at tablet behaviors i.e. what people are actually doing on their devices. Here, there s a pretty consistent story of decline; across all but two of the 37 online activities monitored by GlobalWebIndex, the proportions of tablet users who said they d done them in 2014 were lower than the equivalent figures from Put simply, tablet users are less likely to be using their device to do a range of things online now than they were a year ago; tablets have increasingly become a nice-to-have rather than an essential device, with many existing owners struggling to find a use for them. Of course, some perspective is essential here. The number of owners is continuing to increase. And it s not that tablets are being abandoned altogether; it s still nearly two thirds of users who are doing things like watching video clips or using webmail, for example. Rather, it s that after the initial novelty of having a tablet has worn off the devices stop dominating internet activities in the way they typically do in the early period of ownership. People return to a much more multi-device approach. But the big concern has to be this: while our love affair with tablets is no longer burning quite so brightly, it s still going strong with smartphones (3 in 4 adults are now accessing the internet via a mobile and most behaviors on these devices are either stable or trending upwards). Clearly, then, one of the biggest future challenges for tablets will be to prevent smartphones from pushing further ahead and, in the process, diminishing the need for a tablet. Mobile screens are getting larger, apps are growing more sophisticated and the general mobile web experience is becoming more user-friendly all of which means the smartphone is getting better at mimicking the tablet (especially in the phablet category). While Apple s iphone 6+ was a long time in the coming, it has acted as a further catalyst for this trend. To date, publishers and brands have been investing heavily in tablet apps; we might expect this to be slightly less of a priority in the future. That tablet usage levels are comparatively low among 16-24s is a clear sign of the challenges that this device will face; with this demographic heavily wedded to mobiles, future growth rates for tablets could easily be impeded (although it s worth noting that tablets are much better positioned to take advantage of growing online populations in the upper age groups). Usage of PCs and laptops is not weakening. Any suggestion that we are approaching a post-pc era should thus be treated with caution. For further detail on this subject, please download the following: Tablet Trends (GWI Trend) I GWI Device (GWI Flagship Report) Internet Device Access (GWI Data Pack) I Tablet Activities: All Activities (GWI Data Pack) I Website Visitation - Tablet (GWI Data Pack)

46 46 15 for 15 #3 The New Tech Elite

47 15 for When you think of tech-savvy consumers with their finger on the pulse of the internet, the image that most often comes to mind is a New Yorker or Londoner. But as the entry barriers to accessing the internet have disappeared, emerging markets are now at the very forefront of new tech and internet trends; in these countries, many of which missed most of the century of infrastructure building that set the foundation for western media, populations have leapfrogged into the digital age. Instead of catching up with old fashions, these users are forging their own trends to become a New Tech Elite. Internet users in fast-growth markets are often young, affluent and engaged. Brands connecting with consumers through the internet thus have access to huge numbers among the youngest demographics; 3 in 10 internet users from APAC and LatAm are aged 16-24, for example, while just 2% of Chinese, Indian and Malaysian users are In comparison, the internet population of Europe is considerably older: 16% of internet users come from the top age bracket. Base: Internet users aged Source: GlobalWebIndex 2014

48 48 15 for 15 These young internet users are getting online via a range of devices, with laptops, tablets and mobiles often shared being put to use. On average, Chinese internet users in fact use three devices to get online each month, with Hong Kong, Singapore and Turkey not far behind. Nevertheless, mobile is king: 86% of Chinese, 77% of Malaysian and 73% of Turkish internet users are connecting via this device, a jump of almost 20 points from two years ago. The proliferation of cheap smartphones has brought internet access to a generation who have not needed to invest much, if at all, in laptops or PCs. In contrast, users in developed countries remain much more wedded to their computers only 46% of French users are surfing the web on a mobile. Question: Do You Use A Mobile to Access The Internet? Base: Internet users aged Source: GlobalWebIndex 2014

49 15 for But it s not just how people are going online that differentiates this New Tech Elite it s what they are doing on the internet too. More than 6 in 10 APAC internet users have watched TVoD online in the last month only 39% of Europeans have. What s more, while rates of TVoD watching in China have increased by almost 10 points in the last two years, rates in parts of Europe have been static or seen a small decline. It s also pretty telling that, despite Airbnb being founded and primarily based in America, interest levels in this type of service are (far) higher elsewhere; GWI s data shows that Latin America, and in particular Brazil, are crucial markets for Airbnb-style offerings (32% of LatAm respondents claim to have used this type of service, compared to just 8% in America). The popularity of this new form of accommodation renting was boosted significantly by the 2014 World Cup and is on course to be a powerful force in the hospitality business by the time of the 2016 Olympics. Question: Are You A Brand-Conscious Person? Base: Internet users aged Source: GlobalWebIndex 2014

50 50 15 for 15

51 15 for Key Implications for 2015 Latin American internet users are also forging a path ahead of others in their support of crowd-funded projects, such as Kickstarter. While only 9% of Europeans have engaged with one of these projects, this rises to about a third in LatAm. This new model is yet to make a great impact in APAC (17%) but, with interest in such projects standing at 34% across the region, it s clear that the prospects for Kickstarter and similar such services are strong. Brand-relevant attitudes tend to be particularly pronounced among the New Tech Elite too. In countries such as France and Italy, just a quarter describe themselves as being brandconscious; in contrast, two-thirds of Indonesian and Mexican internet users think of themselves in this way. And while majorities of Chinese (57%) and Indian (54%) internet users say that they tend to buy brands they see advertised, the already lower figures in North America and Europe are either stalling or falling. Of course, audiences in mature markets remain vitally important, especially in terms of per-person spending power. But there are now huge tech- and brand-savvy audiences in other markets that might previously have been discounted due to low levels of overall internet usage or modest GDP rates. And, as the costs of devices and internet access continue to fall, we re looking at a global marketplace where the barriers which used to delineate the developed and developing worlds are increasingly meaningless. As the economies of fast-growth markets continue to strengthen and average incomes rise, lucrative consumer bases will want the newest technology and internet services. And with each year that passes seeing millions of individuals in these countries using the internet for the first time, it s these markets which will drive by far the biggest growth in terms of the size of the global internet population. Audiences are becoming more internationalized, connecting around passions and interests and meeting on social networks. The rise of truly worldwide platforms like Facebook and YouTube as well as globalized access to information, education, entertainment and markets for selling means that everyone can get great internet services regardless of local investment or market size. Previously, some advertisers have typically targeted on a market-by-market basis, working with local advertiser sellers via agency networks. But in the era of the truly cross-border internet audience, global platforms and advertiser solutions are changing this and making global advertising much more viable. For further detail on this subject, please download the following: The Missing Billion (GWI Insight Report) I GWI Brand (GWI Flagship Report) I GWI Device (GWI Flagship Report) I Internet Device Access (GWI Data Pack) I Sharing Economy (GWI Trend) I Online Activities: Watched TV On Demand Online (GWI Data Pack) I Self Perceptions: All Perceptions (GWI Data Pack)

52 52 15 for 15 #4 Facebook Gets Passive

53 15 for Facebook was once the natural go-to point for most of the things we wanted to do on social networks. But as the online space has become more crowded and competitive, the one-site-fits-all model of networking has been losing ground; messaging services as well as more specialized platforms like Instagram and Pinterest have all seen strong growth as people have turned to different services to carry out different activities (for more on this, see our Multi-Networking trend). Meanwhile, Facebook itself has been recording small declines in active usage. While this has been happening, some have leapt at the chance to proclaim the end of Facebook an almost guaranteed way to grab headlines and capture attention. But this is a serious misunderstanding of current trends. Perspective is essential here; although Facebook might have become the site that it s no longer terribly cool for some segments to say they use or like, it s still the number one global service (and by quite some distance). It has more members, more visitors and more active users than any other social network. So too can Zuckerberg and co boast ownership of one of the the fastest growing networks (Instagram) and one of the biggest rising messaging services (WhatsApp). It s not that people are abandoning Facebook, then; rather, it s that people are carrying out fewer actions once there. We re still visiting it, but we re not necessarily using it for all of the things that we once did. It s becoming more of a general hub that connects and underlies many of our social behaviors, rather than the place that hosts them directly. Looking at some of Facebook s numbers from GWI s 32 markets over the last year is perhaps the best way to illustrate this.

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