1 Policy Opportunities for Human Dimensions Science: The Challenge of Frontier Governance
2 How can we avoid the typical sequence of resource depletion on the expanding frontier? Amazon Jobs/Income Most tropical forest regions % Forests Governance Capacity 0 30 Frontier Age
3 Unproductive Deforestation
4 Scientific goals and dissemination strategies Bombs from high places Technological innovation & extension Strategic targeting of social movements
5 Where do public policies come from? Proambiente Payments for conservation/restoration of environmental services on smallholder properties 9 polos, ~4,000 families Creator: Fundacao Viver, Produzir, Preservar Scientific Support: IPAM, FASE, Embrapa, CIRAD 2003: Adopted by Lula government as national family agriculture policy
6 Politica Nacional das Florestas Timber concessions in an expanded system of public forests Vertically integrated community forestry Creator: IMAZON (SUDAM?) Adopted by FHC government
7 Florestas Familiares Partnerships between logging companies and smallholders 400 families; 50,000 ha Creator: Antonio Leite (MAFLOPS) Scientific Support: IPAM 2004: adoption by Government of Para
8 BR163 Sustentavel Pre-paving participatory regional development planning First workshop: 2001 (led by IPAM), 14 leaders March 31 Seminar: 400 people, 2 Ministers 2004: Creation of inter-ministerial working group for BR163
9 Madre de Dios-Acre-Pando (MAP) Pre-paving participatory regional development planning; trinational First workshop: 2001 (UFAc, IPAM) August 2003: 600 people August 2003: Presentation before Peruvian congress
10 Proposed infrastructure for southwestern Amazonia View to the south of Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia. Beni Rondônia US$6 billion UHE St. Antonio 3,600 MW UHE Binational 3,000 MW UHE Jirau 3,900 MW Highway GuayaramerinYucumo US$195 million km de rios navegaveis Pando Lago Titicaca Puerto Maldonado Cobija Rio Branco Highway Iñapari- Puente Inambari US$179 million Acre
11 Deforestation licensing Satellite-based implementation of codigo florestal Creator: FEMA (State of Mato Grosso) Scientific Support:???? April 2004: 10% of State in system; another 10% under evaluation
12 Terra do Meio 7 million ha conservation mosaic Creator: Fundacao Viver, Produzir, Preservar Scientific Support: Instituto Socioambiental
14 Summary: The historical flow of policy initiatives from Brasilia to the Amazon from government to civil society is reversing How can human dimensions science respond to this trend and increase the success of policy initiatives?
15 The Four Drivers
16 Amazon Cattle Herd: Annual growth = 6.2% ( ) Tamanho do Rebanho (Milhões de cabeças) Herd size (millions of head) Mato Grosso Pará Rondônia Tocantins Maranhão Acre Amazonas Roraima Amapá Year Anos
17 Soy Production in Mato Grosso: 13 M tons; 40,000 km Produção de Soja (Toneladas) Soy Production (tons) Producao de Soja (t) Area Plantada de Soja (ha) Area Planted (ha) Área Plantada (ha) Anos Year 0
18 Economic Teleconnections Mad Cow Disease Economic growth, China Demand for Open Range Beef Demand for Soy Amazon FMD Erradication R$ Devaluation Brazilian Cattle Herd Expansion Soy Expansion Amazon Deforestation
19 Nepstad et al. submitted
20 Blairo Maggi: Relentless foe or unknowing environmentalist???
21 Do Private Reserves Work?
25 Grupo Amaggi & IFC $30 M loan to pre-finance soy farmers Grupo Amaggi requires: Codigo Florestal Boas praticas Labor law implemented Today: 490 soy farms receiving financing Potential: Similar initiatives underway with large beef companies (e.g. BrasCan)
26 Agro-industry vs. smallholders: conflicts or complimentarities?
27 Complimentarity: smallholders need access to surface water; Soy farmers prefer flat, well-drained areas.
28 Resource wars...rural assassinations
29 2,700 interviews in collaboration with FVPP E. Lima, F. Merry, J. Souza, D. Nepstad
32 Categories Timber Volume with a 30 years Harvesting Cycle (m3 yr-1) Legally defined INCRA land 1 865,498 Squatters 2 597,220 Colonization projects 3 275,053 Settlement projects in process 4 198,777 Settlement project completed 5 28,233 Total 1,964,782
33 run Soares, et al (GCB )
34 Potential Soy Potential Agriculture Potential Cattle Pasture Santarem 0 1 Cuiaba Alencar, A., O. Almeida, D. Nepstad, unpublished
35 -163 simulation incorporated into Para state zoning plan Zonas de Consolidação Zonas de Recuperação Zonas de Expansão Zonas de UC proposta Uso sustentável Zonas de UC proposta Proteção Integral Zonas de Uso sustentável Zonas de Proteção Integral Zonas de Terras Indígenas
36 Conclusions: Public policy formulation is shifting to social movements, NGOs, and private enterprise Major policy instruments (e.g. ZEE) are poorly studied The quality of these initiatives will depend upon accessible, relevant information Many of the information needs are SIMPLE The principle determinant of success: TRUST
37 SANTARÉM, 31 de março de 2004 Instituições promotoras: FORUM DOS MOVIMENTOS SOCIAIS DA BR-163