Report: February 2015 Released: March 2015

Transcription

1 Report: February 2015 Released: March 2015

2 GB LEISURE IN FEBRUARY COMMENT February s spending patterns largely mirrored those seen in January, as Eating Out saw considerable growth, Drinking Out held its ground and Other Leisure was again down against last year. The gap in leisure spend between London and the South East and Rest of Britain had reduced in recent months, so it is interesting to see a slight reverse in that trend in February. This could be down to London and the South East households being more romantic, as during Valentine s week, we saw a spike in Eating Out spend in this region compared to the Rest of Britain. This report s special focus on household finances reveals that women are less optimistic about their prospects for 2015 than men and still feel worse off than five years ago. I could not look at this month's results without reflecting on the political opinion polls. They suggest the result is too close to call, with a hung parliament an almost certainty (short of a catastrophic gaffe by someone). If Bill Clinton is right and it really is 'the economy, stupid' that determines elections, our results show a third of households feeling better off after 5 years of coalition government, a third feeling the same and (slightly more than) a third feeling worse off. Seen in this context, no wonder the election is too close to call. Fiona Gunn Marketing Director Greene King Paul Flatters Chief Executive Trajectory

3 HEADLINES In February, the average British household spent 196 on out of home leisure, down 8 (4%) year-on-year, but up 7% against January. Year-on-year, changes in spending on Eating Out, Drinking Out and Other Leisure mirrored what was seen in January. Eating Out saw the most considerable growth, Drinking Out held TOTAL LEISURE Average Household Spend in February % decrease year-on-year 7% increase vs. January its ground and Other Leisure remained some way back on spend against last year. EATING OUT DRINKING OUT OTHER LEISURE Retail sales and other data show a spike in spending on swimwear and holiday items such Average Household Spend in February Average Household Spend in February Average Household Spend in February as flights, suggesting early booking of Easter and summer holidays. Committing to an expensive holiday may have left some households more mindful of their spending in February. 7% increase year-onyear 2% increase year-onyear 15% decrease yearon-year 5% increase vs. Jan 13% increase vs. Jan 6% increase vs. Jan

4 TOTAL LEISURE SPEND GB HOUSEHOLD AVERAGE EATING OUT, DRINKING OUT AND OTHER LEISURE SPEND BY MONTH Despite low inflation continuing to help put money back in the pockets of households, this failed to stimulate greater spending on out of home leisure in February. Recent government figures show further falls in the unemployment rate and claimant count, encouraging signs that households will begin to have more spending power in the coming months. The above factors, alongside the tax breaks announced in the recent budget, may act to further ease pressures on household finances, and provide an environment more conducive of consumer spending. However, the upcoming general election and continued difficulties in the Eurozone will continue to drive uncertainty around the near future, acting to constrain any surge in consumer confidence in the short term. DRINKING OUT DRINKING OUT EATING OUT EATING OUT OTHER LEISURE OTHER LEISURE

5 TOTAL LEISURE SPEND MIX GB HOUSEHOLD AVERAGE TOTAL LEISURE SPEND MIX BY MONTH On a year-on-year basis, Eating Out accounted for a greater share of total leisure spend for the seventh consecutive month in February. This continued ascendancy saw the share of the average British household s monthly leisure spend allocated to Eating Out (40%) sit above the year-to-date average (39%) in February. A modest year-on-year increase in spend on Drinking Out in the context of a fall in total leisure spending, meant that this activity accounted for a slightly greater share of total leisure spend in February of this year, increasing by 1% to 22%. Juxtaposed to, and at the expense of the growth in appeal of Eating Out, Other Leisure saw it s share of total leisure spending down on a yearon-year basis for the seventh consecutive month in February. DRINKING OUT OUT EATING OUT OUT OTHER LEISURE

6 TOTAL LEISURE OVER TIME TOTAL LEISURE OVER TIME: FEB 15 vs. FEB 14 & FEB 15 vs. JAN 15 TOTAL LEISURE SPEND OVER TIME: REGIONAL OVERVIEW Colder weather than last year was another contributing factor in dampening total household leisure spending which fell 4% ( 8) year-on-year. Households in London and the South East saw total leisure spending fall by less than those elsewhere in Britain year-on-year. Total leisure spending fell by 4 (2%) and 9 (5%) in the two areas respectively. The disparity in spend between the two areas (23%) was consistent with last month, but greater than between September and December. TOTAL LEISURE SPEND OVER TIME: KIDS / NO KIDS OVERVIEW Year-on-year, spend on out of home leisure fell among households both with and without kids in February. Half term meant family households had less scope to hold back on leisure spending than households without kids. Spend fell by 2% ( 5) and 5% ( 9) respectively. FEB 2014 FEB 2015 JAN 2015

7 EATING OUT OVER TIME EATING OUT OVER TIME: FEB 15 vs. FEB 14 & FEB 15 vs. JAN 15 EATING OUT SPEND OVER TIME: REGIONAL OVERVIEW The appeal of Eating Out continued its upward march in February, with average household spend growing by 7% ( 5) year-on-year, despite only a surprisingly small spike in spend during the week of Valentine s Day. Year-on-year, spend on Eating Out grew more sharply among households in London and the South East than elsewhere in Britain, spend increasing by 9% ( 7) and 6% ( 4) respectively. In February, both households with and without kids saw their spend on Eating Out increase by similar amounts against the year before, spend increasing by 7% ( 5) and 6% ( 4) respectively. This is the most similar rate of spend growth between both household types since data collection began, and may be a signal of slowing spend growth among family households. EATING OUT SPEND OVER TIME: KIDS / NO KIDS OVERVIEW FEB 2014 FEB 2015 JAN 2015

8 DRINKING OUT OVER TIME DRINKING OUT OVER TIME: FEB 15 vs. FEB 14 & FEB 15 vs. JAN 15 DRINKING OUT SPEND OVER TIME: REGIONAL OVERVIEW Drinking Out spend saw modest growth year-onyear of 2% ( 1), showing the continued importance of this activity to British households. Drinking Out also saw a considerable bounce-back in spending month-on-month of 13% ( 5) as increased abstinence typically associated with January fell away. Households in London and the South East were responsible for driving the modest year-on-year growth in spending at GB level. These households saw spend on Drinking Out grow 7% ( 3) offsetting a negligible decline in spend of less than a pound (1%) among households elsewhere in Britain. DRINKING OUT SPEND OVER TIME: KIDS / NO KIDS OVERVIEW It will be interesting to see to what extent the recently announced reduction in beer duty is passed directly on to consumers, and whether this has any impact on household Drinking Out spending in April s figures. FEB 2014 FEB 2015 JAN 2015

9 OTHER LEISURE SPEND OVER TIME OTHER LEISURE OVER TIME: FEB 15 vs. FEB 14 & FEB 15 vs. JAN 15 OTHER LEISURE SPEND OVER TIME: REGIONAL OVERVIEW All households types saw spend on Other Leisure fall on a year-on-year basis in February. Most activities saw a decline in spend, although some bucked this trend. For instance, gambling saw modest spend growth, possibly driven by the growing appeal of online bingo among women. Online gambling sites are offering an alternative to the traditionally male dominated betting shop, but also increasing the accessibility to gambling more generally. OTHER LEISURE SPEND OVER TIME: KIDS / NO KIDS OVERVIEW Colder weather year-on-year did nothing to help boost spending on Other Leisure among households without kids, as these households cut spending by 17% ( 13) against last February. Half term gave less room for manoeuvre for family households in need of ways to entertain the kids, spending among these household fell slightly less at 13% ( 16) year-on-year. FEB 2014 FEB 2015 JAN 2015

10 OTHER LEISURE SPEND - BREAKDOWN GB HOUSEHOLD AVERAGE MONTHLY OTHER LEISURE SPEND: DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY Average monthly spend on live sports events grew slightly in the three months to February compared to the three months to January, likely driven by greater attendance of football games with the end of the season nearing. The Six Nations matches may also have provided a small contribution to spending in February. Spend on visits to the cinema/theatre also grew slightly in the three months to February against the three months to January reflected in a strong performance for 50 shades of grey at the box office. Family households looking to entertain the kids during half term were also a bid driver of growth in spending on this activity in February. THEATRE / CINEMA MUSEUMS, ART GALLERIES & OTHER ATTRACTIONS BOWLING Family households also drove greater spend on Bowling and visits to museums/other LIVE SPORTS EVENTS OTHER LIVE EVENTS GAMBLING AT A CASINO & OTHER GAMING FOR MONEY GYM MEMBERSHIP attractions in the three months to February.

11 ALL LEISURE MIX OVER TIME BY GROUP Similar to recent months, February saw Eating Out account for a greater share of total leisure spending year-on-year across all household types. Again, in keeping with recent months, Other Leisure accounted for a lower share of total spending among all types of household. Although spend on Drinking Out was fairly static in nominal terms on a year-on-year basis, in the context of declines in total leisure spending, this activity accounted for either an unchanged or greater share of total leisure spending across all household types in February. DRINKING OUT EATING OUT OTHER LEISURE

12 HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL SITUATION: LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD

13 HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL SITUATION: COMPARING AGAINST 2010 DO YOU THINK YOUR HOUSEHOLD'S OVERALL FINANCIAL SITUATION IS BETTER OR WORSE COMPARED TO FIVE YEARS AGO (I.E. FEBRUARY 2010), OR IS IT ABOUT THE SAME?* At a total GB level, markedly more respondents feel that their household is in a worse position financially than five years ago (39%) compared with the number who feel in a better position (30%). Overall, female respondents were both more likely to evaluate their current household financial situation as worse than in 2010 and less likely to evaluate it as better than their male counterparts. Respondents from London and the South East were modestly more positive in evaluating their current household financial position against 2010 than their counterparts in the rest of Britain. Undoubtedly this will have been, in part, driven by the relative strength of house prices in these regions in recent years. WORSE SAME BETTER * Excludes those who provided a don t know response.

14 HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL SITUATION: EXPECTATIONS AROUND THE COMING YEAR DO YOU THINK YOUR HOUSEHOLD S OVERALL FINANCIAL SITUATION WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE IN A YEAR'S TIME, OR WILL IT BE ABOUT THE SAME?* At a total GB level, expectations around household financial situation over the coming year were largely balanced, with half (51%) of households expecting their financial situation to remain unchanged over the coming year. The difference between the number of households expecting improvements to their financial situation and those expecting it to worsen was just 1%. As well as being relatively positive about improvements in their financial situation over the previous five years, respondents aged between were most likely to expect their situation to either remain unchanged or improve over the coming year with a similar level of optimism reported by those aged between However, optimism drops off considerably among older respondents WORSE SAME BETTER * Excludes those who provided a don t know response.

15 LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD: SEGMENTING HOUSEHOLDS BY FINANCIAL SITUATION AND OUTLOOK Looking forward: Expectations around household financial situation in a years time Those who reported their household to be in a better position financially than in 2010 were more than three times as likely to expect their financial situation to improve over the coming year than those who reported their household to be in a worse position than five years ago. These expectations suggest an increasing polarisation in the fortunes of British households over the coming year. One in five households, represented by the Bottoming Out and Sorting Things Out groups, have seen their household financial situation deteriorate over the previous five years. However, for these households, the impact of the recession appears to have subsided, they now expect their financial situation to either remain unchanged or improve over the coming year. Looking backward: Current household financial situation compared to 5 years ago WORSE SAME BETTER WORSE SAME BETTER Downbeat Deflated 18% Worsening 4% Sliding Back 2% Bottoming Out 15% Same as Ever 22% Losing steam 14% Sorting Things Out 5% Improving 5% Optimistic Winners 14% * Excludes those who provided a don t know response to either or both questions.

16 LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD: CENTRE OF GRAVITY BY RESPONDENT TYPE Respondents in the 55+ age bracket were the most likely of any group to populate the Downbeat and Deflated group. Although those from older generations are traditionally associated with a more conservative outlook, it is surprising to see these respondents so far adrift of their younger counterparts. However, changes to annuity and pensions announced in the recent budget may serve to boost their optimism about the coming year. The gender divide is apparent, not only in the review of household financial progress during the course of the previous five years, but also when looking to the year ahead. Unfortunately, addressing inequality, particularly around pay has historically proven to be a slow and drawn out process. In this context, it is not unsurprising that women are slightly less optimistic than men about their household finances over the coming year. Positivity about household financial situation compared to five years ago Positivity about household financial situation over the coming year

17 THE NEXT LEISURE SPEND TRACKER WILL BE RELEASED ON Monday 27th April 2015

18 METHODOLOGY The Greene King Leisure Spend Tracker is part of an omnibus questionnaire run on behalf of Greene King by research partner YouGov and analysed in conjunction with Trajectory Partnership. Respondents report on their household s leisure behaviour over the previous week (e.g. spend, visit frequency etc.), with respect to the leisure activities set out below: Eating Out Drinking Out Gambling Live Sports Events Other Live Events Gym Membership Museums, Art Galleries and Other Attractions Theatre and Cinema Bowling The Leisure Spend Tracker is run four times in each calendar month, always going into field on a Monday. This data is then used to generate a picture of household leisure activity in Great Britain over a 28 day period in each calendar month. Each month s report is based on an online, nationally representative sample of c. 4,000 individuals (GB, 18+), reflecting the leisure behaviour of c. 4,000 households. Data has been collected every month since August A wealth of demographic data is held against each respondent,which allows for more fine-grained analysis of households with particular characteristics.

19 CONTACT For media enquiries please contact: Philip Walters RLMFinsbury Tel: +44 (0) General enquiries: Website: DISCLAIMER This report was created by Greene King and Trajectory Partnership. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material in this report. The authors will not be held liable for any loss or damages incurred through the use of this report. Bury St. Edmunds, March 2015.