Rivalry, Market Structure and Innovation: The Case of Mobile Banking. Presenter: Zhaozhao He University of Kansas 09/23/2014
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1 Rivalry, Market Structure and Innovation: The Case of Mobile Banking Presenter: Zhaozhao He University of Kansas 09/23/2014
2 Research Questions Whether rivalry and market structure affect technology diffusion. Are there any interactive effects of rivalry and market structure during the technology adoption process?
3 Rapid Growth of Mobile Banking Apps Cumulative Number of Banks with iphone Apps Source: itunes Store
4 What Is A Mobile Banking App? Definition from the Federal Reserve survey (March, 2012) Mobile Banking: SMS Mobile Web Mobile App Mobile apps provide customized financial services. Mobile apps versus Online banking websites Fast customers adoption of smartphones
5 Adoption by Regional Fed as of Mid ,200 1, % 17% 17% 15% 14% 14% 14% 10% 9% 9% 9% 4% Adopting Banks Non-adopting Banks
6 Why Do Banks Adopt Apps? To Enhance Customer Relationship American Banker (February 6, 2012) Competitive Pressure American Banker (February 6, 2012) To Replace Branches and Labor American Banker (September 10, 2012)
7 This Paper To date, there are no academic research papers on the adoption of mobile banking apps. Applying a Cox proportional hazard model to study the joint impact of market structure and rivalry on the probability of adoption. Using unique, hand-collected data on mobile app adoption by 694 banks between 2008 and Addressing endogeneity concern that adoptions are simultaneous reactions to unmeasured factors by an instrumental variables approach.
8 Literature Review Mixed evidence on the role of market concentration: Adoption of ATMs: Hannan and McDowell (1984) Adoption of Small Business Credit Scoring: Akhavein, Frame, and White (2005) Mixed evidence on the (dynamic) role of competitive rivalry Adoption of Internet Banking: DeYoung, Lang and Nolle (2007) Joint role of rivalry and market concentration: Hannan and McDowell (1987)
9 Main Data Source-- itunes
10 itunes An Illustration
11 Data Adoption data from itunes Store (694 adopters) Other data sources: FDIC (bank financials, branch deposit data) Bureau of Labor Statistics (demographic data) Final Sample contains 99,960 bank-quarter observations from 2008:Q3-2012:Q2 iphone app as a proxy for the mobile banking app technology
12 Majority Banks Had iphone Apps First Time Lag (Month) Android apps Adopted FIRST Both Adopted at Same Time iphone apps Adopted FIRST < >0 Total Testing Samples # of Banks Percent 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% 0.9% 28.8% 66.7% 100%
13 Hypotheses Market Structure HHI_Deposits (?) Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of deposits in a local market, defined at the MSA level Competitive Pressure Local Rivals (+) % of rival banks (using branch presence) in a local market with mobile apps in a given quarter Joint Effects Local Rivals*HHI_Deposits (+) Banks compete on non-price attributes in concentrated markets (Scherer and Ross, 1929, pp.595). Milliou and Petrakis (2011)
14 Summary Statistics (Key Variables) Variables Adopters (Obs=694) Mean Std. Dev. Non-Adopters (Obs=99,291) Mean Std. Dev. Diff-inmeans Local Rivals (%) *** HHI_Deposits ***
15 Main Results Dependent Variable: Odds Ratios ADOPT (1) (2) *** *** (Predicted) Local Rivals (7.49) (5.89) HHI_Deposits ** (-0.75) (-2.55) Local Rivals * HHI_Deposits *** (2.91) N 99,960 99,960 Instruments for Local Rivals=Rivals outside-market deposit shares, MSA dummy Controls= lnassets, lnage, Tier1, Core Deposits, Service Revenue, Labor Cost, Workers and Salary, Advertising, Branch Intensity, Asset Growth, market conditions, financial distress, and MSA & Year FEs. t-statistics are based on robust standard errors clustered by MSA.
16 Other Tests Sort sample into quartiles by HHI_Deposits and estimate the effect of Local Rivals on each subgroup This interactive effect is stronger for banks headquartered in MSA areas. This joint effect exists for the speed of adoption estimated from a Tobit model.
17 The Impact of Adoption on Performance Dependent Variables POST ADOPT Profitability Costs SERVICE ROA ADVERTISE BRANCH WORKER LABOR REVENUE INTENSITY /Branch COST (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) *** *** ** *** (1.62) (9.79) (4.67) (0.14) (2.18) (9.58) TIME SINCE 0.026** *** *** *** ADOPTION (2.41) (4.72) (2.91) (1.33) (-0.82) (9.86) N 10,868 10,868 10,868 10,868 10,868 10,868 Adjusted R Notes: Sample includes adopters only. All Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions include bank FEs, year FEs, and full set of controls. t-statistics are based on robust standard errors clustered by bank.
18 Conclusions Rivals spur mobile app diffusion. The impact of rivalry adoptions on potential adopters is stronger in more concentrated markets, consistent with the economic theory of the oligopolistic competition.
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