Modeling the Enrollment Forecasts for PG&E s Non-Residential DR Programs

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1 Modeling the Enrollment Forecasts for PG&E s Non-Residential DR Programs Presented by Joe Wharton, The Brattle Group Presented to Demand Response Load Impact Workshop Sponsored by the California Demand Response Measurement and Evaluation Committee (DRMEC) May 13, 2010 Copyright 2010 The Brattle Group, Inc. Antitrust/Competition Commercial Damages Environmental Litigation and Regulation Forensic Economics Intellectual Property International Arbitration International Trade Product Liability Regulatory Finance and Accounting Risk Management Securities Tax Utility Regulatory Policy and Ratemaking Valuation Electric Power Financial Institutions Natural Gas Petroleum Pharmaceuticals, Medical Devices, and Biotechnology Telecommunications and Media Transportation

2 Background Key CPUC policy drivers Dynamic Pricing Timetable, D (July 31, 2008) Adoption of DR Activities and Budgets, D (Aug. 27, 2009) PG&E Rate Design Window, D (Feb. 25, 2010) The Nudge - Default Peak Day Pricing for all C&I and large Agricultural SA_IDs (customers) Customers must choose TOU as alternative rate PDP comes with Bill Stabilization for 12 months Not defaulted if already on an event-based DR program Choices modeled on stated preferences from survey research Brattle modeled enrollment for 14 other voluntary non-residential DR programs. 2

3 List of Separate Enrollment Forecasts Non-Residential Programs No. Non Event-driven 1 Permanent Load Shift (PLS) 2 TOU Rates (TOU) Event-driven, not Price-based 3 AMP - Day Ahead Notification 4 AMP - Day Of Notification 5 BIP - Day Of Notication 6 CBP - Day Ahead Notification 7 CBP - Day Of Notification 8 DBP - Day Ahead Notification 9 PeakChoice - Committed Load, Day Of Notification 10 PeakChoice - Committed Load, Day Ahead Notfication 11 PeakChoice - Best Efforts, Day Of Notification 12 PeakChoice - Best Efforts, Day Ahead Notification 13 SmartAC - Medium and Small Event-driven and Price-based 14 Peak Day Pricing (PDP) - Non-Residential 15 SmartRate - Medium and small, ending May Pre-PDP CPP - Large, ending May 2010 Residential Programs 1 TOU Rates - Non event-driven 2 SmartAC - Event-driven, non rate-based 3 Peak Day Pricing (PDP) - Event-driven and rate-based 4 SmartRate - Event-driven and rate-based, ending May

4 Overview of Enrollment Forecasting Model Beyond 16 DR programs, other key components are Default date sequence Large C&I - May 2010 Large Agriculture - February 2011 Medium and small C&I - November 2011 Growth of Customer Population Disaggregation of customers up to 192 strata 3 Size Classes note their very different average sizes in Figure below 8 Industry Groups 8 CAISO Local Capacity Areas 4

5 Overview of Enrollment Forecast Model Issues in tracking all DR programs simultaneously Some programs are mutually exclusive, others are not. Concurrent enrollment numbers are tracked. Customers are fully allocated to DR programs and for choice modeling to eligible or ineligible groups Enrollment process becomes the Transition Probabilities of a Markov Chain Forecasts enrollment in a consistent way for all programs Increasing the probability of joining a given program will decrease the expected enrollment in mutually exclusive programs appropriately 5

6 System Modeled as a Markov Chain Timing for eligibility is tracked by 26 vintages No SmartMeter yet installed SmartMeter installed in current month Installed 13 months ago customers ready for Default Installed 25 months ago end of Bill Stabilization Transition Probabilities of Default PDP With Bill Stabilization, customers in qualified categories either default to PDP (74%), or opt out to TOU (26%). Qualified: Large, Medium and Small C&I customers and Large Agriculture customers, not on event based DR programs 12 months later, the Bill Stabilization ends and PDP choice drops somewhat (49%) and TOU grows (51%). 6

7 Results: Total Enrollment in Event Based DR Programs Jumps in Nov 2011 Nov 2012, from PDP Total Non-Residential Enrollments in Event-Based DR Programs ,000 Peak Day Pricing (PDP) 350,000 SmartRate SmartAC 300, , , , ,000 50,000 Peak Choice Total DBP - Day Ahead CPP - Large CBP - Day Of AMP - Day Of AMP - Day Ahead CBP - Day Ahead - January-10 July-10 Januar y-11 July-11 January-12 July-12 January-13 July-13 January-14 July-14 January-15 July-15 January-16 July-16 January-17 July-17 January-18 July-18 January-19 July-19 January-20 July-20 Number of Enrolled Non-Residential SAIDs BIP - Day Of 7

8 Results: Remainder of the Non Residential Population Moves to TOU Rates by 2012 Major Components for Non Residential Customers , , , , , , ,000 - January-10 July-10 January-11 July-11 January-12 July-12 January-13 July-13 January-14 July-14 January-15 July-15 January-16 July-16 January-17 July-17 January-18 July-18 January-19 July-19 January-20 July-20 Number of Enrolled Non-Residential SAID 8 With SmartMeters but No DR Program or DR Rate TOU Rates -Non-Residential Sum of Event Based DR Programs Peak Day Pricing (PDP)

9 Results: Ongoing Non-Rate DR Programs Grow Through 2011 AMP, BIP, CBP and DBP ,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, January-10 July-10 January-11 July-11 January-12 July-12 January-13 July-13 January-14 July-14 January-15 July-15 January-16 July-16 January-17 July-17 January-18 July-18 January-19 July-19 January-20 July-20 Number of Enrolled Non-Residential SAIDs 9 DBP - Day Ahead CBP - Day Of AMP - Day Of AMP - Day Ahead CBP - Day Ahead BIP - Day Of

10 Results: Newer Non Rate DR Programs Grow as Well SmartAC and PeakChoice Options ,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - January-09 July-09 January-10 July-10 January-11 July-11 January-12 July-12 January-13 July-13 January-14 July-14 January-15 July-15 January-16 July-16 January-17 July-17 January-18 July-18 January-19 July-19 January-20 July-20 Number of Enrolled Non-Residential SAIDs PeakChoice - Committed Load, Day Of PeakChoice - Committed Load, Day Ahead PeakChoice - Best Efforts, Day Of PeakChoice - Best Efforts, Day Ahead SmartAC 10

11 Conclusion and Discussion In Enrollment per se, event-based DR is expected to increase tremendously Large customers joining PDP this month May 2010 AMP, CBP and PeakChoice growing thru Summer 2011 Many medium and small customers joining PDP from November 2011 through late 2012 Non event-based TOU Enrollment also jumps Load Impacts per customer for each these event- and non event-based DR programs are the rest of the story 11

12 For Further Information Dr. Joe Wharton The Brattle Group 353 Sacramento Street, Ste 1140 San Francisco, CA Ph:

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