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1 For Immediate Release RANDOM Bits Global Mobile Growth Engine September 2014 Volume 12 The global mobile market continues on a strong growth trajectory driven by adoption and penetration of smartphones, particularly in developing markets, and their increasingly powerful communications and computing utility. Global mobile subscriptions are expected to grow at a 5% CAGR from 6.8 billion in Q to 9.2 billion by the end of 2019, five years from now. At the same time smartphones are projected to grow from 1.9 billion at the end of 2013 to 5.6 billion in 2019, a 20% CAGR. The majority of mobile subscriptions, approximately 4.5 billion today, are basic feature phones. This is changing rapidly as smartphones become more affordable around the globe. It is now anticipated that smartphone subscriptions globally will exceed feature phones as early as the end of In Q2 2014, 65% of global mobile handset sales, nearly 300 million units, were smartphones. Finally, greater than 80% of mobile subscriptions by the end of 2019 will include mobile broadband, up from 2.3 billion currently, a 22% CAGR. Subscriptions by Region Source: Ericsson Mobility Report June 2014
2 Random Bits Global Mobile Growth Engine Page 2 Over the last five years the impact globally of the rapid growth in smartphones basically powerful, internet accessible computing and communications devices cannot be overstated. We expect that the democratization of access to information and commerce associated with the continued global penetration of these powerful mobile computing and media devices will continue to have a profound impact, particularly in developing countries. Global Mobile Stats There are only 14 countries in the world with over 100 million mobile subscriptions, together accounting for 61% of the world s total mobile subscriptions. Only 3 of these countries are considered developed the U.S. (#3), Russia (#6) and Germany (#11) with the balance representing a number of the largest developing nations. The top two nations from a mobile subscription perspective are both developing: China is #1 with 1.3 billion subscriptions while India is #2 with approximately 800 million active subscriptions, both dwarfing the U.S. with a mere 370 million mobile subscriptions. In fact, 29% of the world s mobile users live in China and India. Asia-Pacific already accounts for greater than 50% of all mobile subscriptions. Further, the substantial majority of growth over the next five years in net new mobile subscriptions is expected in Asia-Pacific followed by the Middle East and Africa. According to the June 2014 Ericsson Mobility Report, nearly 60% of forecast 2.4 billion in net new subscriptions by the end of 2019 will come from the Asia-Pacific region while 700 million, or nearly 30%, are expected in the Middle East and Africa.
3 Random Bits Global Mobile Growth Engine Page 3 In H1 2014, there were 200 million new mobile subscriptions, over half attributable to net new subscribers in the Asia-Pacific region, while 30% resulted from new subscribers in China and India alone. China s Leading Mobile Position China is big in so many respects. The population of China is approximately 1.35 billion, 19% of the global population. The U.S., with a current population of 320 million, is just over one-fifth the population of China. At year-end 2013, there were 1.3 billion mobile subscriptions in China, 618 million internet users (632 million as of July 2014) and in excess of 500 million mobile internet users, many using their mobile device as the primary access to the internet. In fact, 81% of China s internet users access the internet from their mobile device compared to 70%, and declining modestly, who access the internet from a desktop. Again, by comparison the U.S. has only 370 million mobile subscriptions, 277 million internet users and approximately 250 million mobile internet users. The preceding chart from Boston Consulting Group, summarizes the growth and use of select digital platforms in China. Sina Weibo is a micro-blogging service while Weixin is a social messaging app and both have experienced staggering growth over the last five years driven, in part, by growth in mobile subscriptions. There were 271 million online shoppers in China year-end 2013.
4 Random Bits Global Mobile Growth Engine Page 4 The following table is from a July 2014 report from McKinsey Global Institute titled China s Digital Transformation and offers a useful side-by-side comparison of key internet and ecommerce statistics in China compared to the U.S. Particularly noteworthy is the $300 billion annual sales size of China s etail market, surpassing the U.S. for the first time in 2013 and becoming the largest in the world in the process. Wrap-Up The developing world is driving continued strong growth in global mobile subscriptions. The growth of mobile in China and India, the two largest mobile markets, is particularly impressive. The majority share of subscription growth is now for smartphones enabling more fluid access to the internet and information, entertainment and mobile or m-commerce as a result. In many developing markets the mobile device is the only or primary means of accessing the internet.
5 Random Bits Global Mobile Growth Engine Page 5 With the growing penetration of smartphones and mobile broadband projected for 80% of mobile subscriptions by the end of 2019, global internet penetration will continue as will growth in related services such as social messaging and m-commerce, perhaps most importantly. In China, for example, the gross market value of purchases attributable to mobile shoppers is projected to increase from nearly $30 billion currently to $160 billion by the end of 2017, a 52% CAGR. Access to affordable internet-enabled mobile devices and services around the globe has become a key driver of mobile growth and the growth of m-commerce. The rapid proliferation of smartphones, tablets and other connected media enabling devices is profoundly changing the way that we behave, communicate, consume entertainment and information content and conduct commerce. There is a lot of money at stake in the navigation of this consumer evolution. We write on digital and traditional media and mobile frequently and encourage your feedback. All of our thought pieces are available via the Resources tab on our website at Colin Knudsen (212) colin@coadydiemar.com About Coady Diemar Partners Coady Diemar is an established boutique investment banking firm providing merger and acquisition, private growth companies in digital and traditional mobile, technology, We offer a breadth of transaction experience and expertise, industry knowledge and institutional relationships and provide clients creative solutions and unparalleled access to ideas and capital. We are acutely sensitive to the specific and unique requirements of each client and opportunity. Visit our website to learn more about Coady Diemar Partners and to download presentations on digital and traditional media/technology and the M & A and private capital markets. Contact Colin Knudsen at colin@coadydiemar.com or Chris Ensley at chrise@coadydiemar.com for additional information about our services or to arrange a meeting. Independent Advice. Seamless Execution. This announcement is not a recommendation and neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy securities. This announcement appears as a matter of record only. Copyright (C) 2014 Coady Diemar Partners, LLC. All rights reserved.
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