Estimates of U.S. Commercial Building Electricity Intensity Trends: Issues Related to End-Use and Supply Surveys

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1 PNNL Estimates of U.S. Commercial Building Electricity Intensity Trends: Issues Related to End-Use and Supply Surveys D. B. Belzer September 2007 Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

2 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor Battelle Memorial Institute, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY operated by BATTELLE for the UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830 Printed in the United States of America Available to DOE and DOE contractors from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, P.O. Box 62, Oak Ridge, TN ; ph: (865) fax: (865) Available to the public from the National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA ph: (800) fax: (703) online ordering: This document was printed on recycled paper. (9/2003)

3 PNNL Estimates of U.S. Commercial Building Electricity Intensity Trends: Issues Related to End-Use and Supply Surveys D. B. Belzer September 2007 Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland, Washington 99352

4 Summary As part of any effort to assess the historical impacts of activities funded by DOE s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to increase energy efficiency in the nation s stock of commercial buildings, it is critical to develop accurate historical measures of energy intensity (e.g., energy use per square foot of floor space). Currently, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes data related to commercial building energy consumption based on two sources. The first is the periodic Commercial Building Energy Consumption surveys (CBECS). The second source relies on the reporting to EIA by energy suppliers of their sales to commercial customers. Over past two decades these sources suggest dramatically different trend rates of growth of electricity intensity with the supplysurvey based estimates growing almost twice as fast as those based on the CBECS. Figure S.1 compares the overall intensities between these two sources. Since the mid 1980s, the trend growth rate in the aggregate electricity intensity from the supply survey data is about 90 percent greater than that implied by the CBECS kwh/sq. ft Supply Survey-Based CBECS (adjusted to 1992 bldg. scope) CBECS (Trend) Year Figure S.1. Comparison of Electricity Intensities Based on Supply Survey and CBECS Because EERE has had a variety of strategies aimed at reducing commercial building energy use over the past two decades, the existence of a credible series of historical energy (electricity) intensities is valuable for showing the relative impact of these efforts. EERE is also looked to by the Congress and various private organizations as a reliable source of information that can be used to aid in setting public policy with respect to improving building energy efficiency. For internal strategic planning, a better iii

5 understanding of the behavior of commercial energy use and intensity over the recent past is also important. This report attempts to assess the potential biases in both the supply-based and CBECS data sources with the aim of evaluating which source provides a more accurate picture of electricity use trends in the commercial building sector. In terms of the information based on the supply surveys, we seek to develop consistent historical estimates of the amount of electricity not used in commercial buildings, but nevertheless currently classified in the supply survey as commercial. In comparing the two data sources, the analysis focuses on two elements: 1) reclassification of electricity sales between industrial and commercial sales that appear to have occurred in a number of states and 2) estimation of electricity used for non-enclosed equipment that is used outside of commercial buildings, including outdoor lighting, water supply and treatment, cell phone sites, and irrigation. These factors together account for about eight percent of the observed growth in total commercial sector sales between 1992 and Table S.1 shows electricity consumption for the commercial sector, as published in the EIA s Annual Energy Review (AER), along with the various adjustments that serve to show the magnitude of consumption that may be more closely associated with commercial buildings. Table S.1. Total Impact of Reclassification and Non-enclosed Equipment on Commercial Electricity Sales (terawatt-hours [TWh]) Year Published Supply- Based (AER) Reclassification - (subtract) Outdoor Lighting Water Supply and Treatment Cell Towers Irrigation PNNL Adjusted Total Difference (PNNL Adjusted - Published Total) Ratio (PNNL Adjusted/ Published Total , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Figure S.2 plots the published and adjusted commercial sales along with the electricity consumption reported by the CBECS. Clearly, the most obvious result is that the CBECS and adjusted utility-based estimates show reasonable agreement over the last four CBECS cycles. Given the congruence of the CBECS to the adjusted total electricity consumption for 1992 and later years, the CBECS estimates of electricity consumption for 1983, 1986, and 1989 are very high. We recognize iv

6 that the uncertainty of the various adjustments is somewhat greater during the 1980s as compared to more recent years, but even if the adjustments (for lighting, water supply, and irrigation) were only half of what is shown in Table S.1, the CBECS values would be relatively high compared to the adjusted utility-based estimates. If the adjusted supply-based estimates can be considered to reasonably match the CBECS scope and definition, the 1983 CBECS estimate is much too high. The adjusted supply estimate is even below the lower 95 percent confidence limit for that year. As the 1979 (not shown) and 1983 surveys were based on a different sampling procedure than the later CBECS, one can attribute the difference to the way the sample was selected and converted into a national estimate. 1,400 1,200 1, TWh Published Survey-Based (AER) PNNL Adjusted Total CBECS (adjusted to 1992 bldg. scope) Lower 95% Limit Upper 95% Limit Figure S.2. Total Commercial Sector Electricity Use, Published-AER vs. Adjusted (TWh) Electricity intensities based on the adjusted commercial sales consumption estimates match up closely with the CBECS intensities for 1992 and later. This comparison is shown in Figure S.3. v

7 kwh/sq. ft Supply Survey (Adjusted) CBECS Figure S.3. Comparison of CBECS and Adjusted Supply Survey Electricity Intensities. The total of all the adjustments shown in the second to last column of Table S.1 is, however, insufficient to explain difference between the longer-term intensity trends derived from the two data sources. Over the two-decade period 1985 to 2005, the intensity based on the adjusted supply survey data actually increases slightly faster (1.53 percent/yr) than an intensity (shown in Figure S.1) based on the published supply data (1.47 percent/yr). However, as shown in Figure S.3, the correspondence between the absolute intensities based on the adjusted supply survey estimates and the CBECS since 1992 is strikingly close. From another perspective, however, if the 1992 CBECS is omitted, a gradual and relatively consistent trend of increasing intensities is provided by the full set of CBECS. This perspective still indicates that the CBECS trend growth in electricity consumption and aggregate intensity is lower than that suggested by the supply survey data. However, it is plausible that the CBECS estimates do provide the more accurate picture of long-term intensity trends. The supply survey data is subject to variety of factors that may be biasing the reported consumption for both the commercial and industrial sectors. At this point, there appears to be no completely satisfactory explanation of the discrepancy between the adjusted supply survey consumption estimates and the CBECS when analyzed over a period beginning in the early 1980s and continuing to the present. The correspondence between the sources is closer after 1992 and for many purposes this shorter historical perspective is sufficient. Finally, it is recommended that any broad statements about trends in overall commercial electricity use and intensity always be accompanied with a reference to the underlying data source. vi

8 Contents Summary...iii Acronyms...x 1 Background Classification Issues Related to Electricity Utility Customer Accounts Utility Reported Sales collected by Supply Survey (Form EIA-861) Classification Changes of Electric Utility Accounts: Industrial and Commercial Non-Enclosed Equipment Street and Highway Lighting Street and Highway Lighting from EIA Street and Highway Lighting Electricity Use: 2002 Navigant Lighting Study Blended Results from EIA-861 and Navigant Study Parking Lot Lighting Navigant Lighting Inventory Study CEC Assessment of Outdoor Lighting in California Other Outdoor Lighting Traffic Signals Billboard and Airport Lighting Walkway and Pedestrian Lighting Water Supply and Treatment EPRI Report Related to Water and Sustainability TIAX Report on Miscellaneous Commercial Electricity Uses Historical Estimates Cell Phone Sites (Towers) Irrigation Total Impact of Commercial Sector Adjustments Conclusion References...59 Figures Figure S.1. Comparison of Electricity Intensities Based on Supply Survey and CBECS...iii Figure S.2. Total Commercial Sector Electricity Use, Published-AER vs. Adjusted (TWh)...v Figure S.3. Comparison of CBECS and Adjusted Supply Survey Electricity Intensities...vi Figure 1.1. Comparison of Annual Floor Space Stock with CBECS...3 Figure 1.2. Comparison of Electricity Intensities Based Upon Supply Survey and CBECS...4 Figure 2.1. Supply-based and CBECS Estimates of Total Commercial Electricity Consumption...11 Figure 2.2. Reported Commercial and Industrial Electricity for New Hampshire, vii

9 Figure 2.4. Commercial and Industrial Electricity Sales: Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, and Mississippi Figure 2.5. Commercial and Industrial Electricity Sales: South Dakota and New York Figure 2.6. Classification Changes between Industrial and Commercial Sectors for Tennessee, Figure 2.8. Published and Adjusted Total Commercial Electricity Sales (Method A)...22 Figure 2.9. Published and Adjusted Total Commercial Electricity Sales (Method B)...22 Figure 3.1. Electrical Consumption per Residential Customer and Number of Customers, Figure 3.2. Published and Adjusted Electricity Series for Irrigation Reclassification...45 Figure 4.1. Total Commercial Sector Electricity Use, Published-AER vs. Adjusted Series (TWh)...49 Figure 4.2. Comparison of Adjusted Intensities from the CBECS and Supply Survey Data...51 Figure 4.3. Electricity Intensities by Building Type: 1986, 1989, 1992 and 1995 CBECS...53 Tables Table S.1. Total Impact of Reclassification and Non-enclosed Equipment on Commercial Electricity Sales (terawatt-hours [TWh])...iv Table 1.1. CBECS Floor Space Adjusted to 1992 CBECS Building Scope and Definition (Billion Square Feet)...3 Table 1.2. Comparison of Annual Growth Rates of Electricity Intensities, Table 2.1. Customer Class Definitions for Form EIA-861 (Pre-2003)...8 Table 2.2. Electricity Sales by Sector Published in the Electric Power Annual (TWh)...9 Table 2.3. Alternative Estimates of Commercial Electricity Consumption (TWh) from the Electric Power Annual (EPA) and the Annual Energy Review (AER) (Terawatt-Hours)...10 Table 3.1. Estimates of Total Street Lighting Electricity Use for 1997, Based on EIA Table 3.2. Annual Estimates Electricity Consumption for Street and Highway Lighting Based on EIA Table 3.3. Estimates of Street and Highway Electricity Based on Blended Estimates from the EIA-Survey and the 2002 Navigant Lighting Study...28 Table 3.4. Estimates of Parking Lot Lighting...31 Table 3.5. Estimates of Outdoor Lighting Use in California...33 Table 3.6. Historical Estimates of Electricity Consumption for Traffic Signals...34 Table 3.7. Annual Estimates of Electricity Use for Water Supply and Treatment...40 Table 3.8. Average Power Consumption and Distribution by Type of Cell Site...41 Table 3.9. Estimated Electricity Consumption by Cell Phone Sites in the U.S Table Estimates of Irrigation Electricity Use (and Adjustments to Reported Data)...44 viii

10 Table 4.1. Total Impact of Reclassification and Non-enclosed Equipment on Commercial Electricity Sales (Terawatt-hours)...48 Table 4.2. Utility Account Classification of Commercial Building Electricity: 1989, 1992, and ix

11 Acronyms ADL AER BT CBECS CDWR CEC CTIA DOE EERE EIA EPA EPRI FHWA GWh HID IPI LBNL LED LPD MWh NBECS NEMA NPPC PNNL RUS SEDR SEDS TWh USGS Arthur D Little Annual Energy Review Building Technologies Commercial Building Energy Consumption Surveys California Department of Water Resources Canadian Electric Code Cellular Telecommunications and Internet Association U.S. Department of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Energy Information Administration Electric Power Annual Electric Power Research Institute Federal Highway Administration gigawatt hour High Intensity Discharge International Parking Institute Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Light Emitting Diode Lighting Power Density megawatt hour Nonresidential Building Energy Consumption Survey National Electrical Manufacturer's Association Northwest Power Planning Council Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Rural Utility Service State Energy Data Report State Energy Data System terawatt hour U.S. Geological Survey x

12 1 Background The basic objective of the Department of Energy s building efficiency programs is to slow, and ultimately reverse, the growth of energy use by the buildings sector. Clearly, to measure progress in that effort, a reasonably accurate picture is needed of how much energy is being used in buildings at any point in time. An important role of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is to develop accurate estimates of the energy used in the building sector and in the other major end-use sectors of the U.S. economy. The statistics related to energy use in buildings are derived from two different sources. The first source involves the periodic building surveys initiated by EIA in the late 1970s. For commercial buildings, the Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) has been conducted in 1979, 1983, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1995, 1999, and The CBECS is a stratified national sample of approximately 6000 commercial buildings and collects information on the physical and operating characteristics of each building as well as its annual energy consumption. The second source relates to the surveys of electric and natural gas utilities. These energy suppliers provide monthly information to EIA on energy sales, customers, and revenues. This information is collected on the basis of the types of rate structures for major classes of customers. Although EIA provides general guidelines related to classifying accounts, it depends on the utilities to classify their various accounts into the residential, commercial or industrial categories. For commercial buildings, the broadest measure of energy efficiency is provided by estimates of annual energy use per square foot of floor space. Energy intensities based on this definition have been generated and published by all of the CBECS since its inception. Because the CBECS is only conducted every three to four years and because there is a significant degree of sampling variation associated with these estimates (blurring the changes from one survey to the next), an alternative metric based on the annual supplier information is desirable. However, to make use of this information, we also need robust measures of the stock of commercial floor space for each year. Annual historical estimates of commercial floor space are not currently generated by any federal statistical agency (including EIA). Over the past decade, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has attempted to develop historical estimates of commercial floor space. These estimates are based on a combination of data from the CBECS and floor space additions provided by the F.W. Dodge Division of the McGraw-Hill publishing company. The Dodge construction data are published in the Statistical Abstract of U.S. 1 Given the lack of detailed Dodge data by building type from this source, the estimates thus far have been developed only for aggregate commercial floor space in the U.S. The estimation of floor space follows a perpetual inventory approach: stock in any given year is based on the previous year s stock, new additions, and estimated retirements from the stock. 2 Based on previous PNNL work, 1 The most recent data are taken from Table No. 939, Construction Contacts Value of Construction and Floor Space of Buildings by Class of Construction: 1980:2004. Classes of construction are very broad: commercial (includes office, retail, lodging, and warehouse), educational, health, public buildings, religious, social and recreational, and miscellaneous. The data are published only in the hard copy version of the Statistical Abstract, and are not available on the web. 2 The estimates of retirements are based on two-parameter logistic survival curve, using the same functional form as that used by EIA in the commercial NEMS model. The parameters of this curve were estimate by finding the best statistical fit to four data points corresponding to the percentage of surviving stock for four vintages (<1920, , , ) as implied by the 1999 CBECS in comparison to the 1989 CBECS. The median 1

13 the current series of historical commercial floor space is benchmarked to the 1989 CBECS. 3 Unfortunately, new floor space additions from F.W. Dodge are very likely to underestimate the actual amount of new floor space. 4 An adjustment of this Dodge-based underestimate for the period is based on the amount of floor space estimated by the 1989 CBECS to have been built during this period. This adjustment factors up the Dodge additions by 26 percent to account for this underreporting. For the time period starting in 1990, it is not yet clear what magnitude of adjustment is appropriate. Based solely on the 2003 CBECS, the amount of new commercial floor space built between 1990 and 2003 is roughly 15 percent greater than that reported by F.W. Dodge. Thus, based on the two CBECS (1989 and 2003), we believe that an appropriate adjustment for this recent 14-year period lies in the range of 15 percent to 25 percent. To simplify the analysis, we have chosen to use a single adjustment factor of 20 percent to generate the floor space additions during the time frame. Figure 1.1 compares the annual floor space developed from this perpetual inventory approach and the estimates of national floor space from the various CBECS. The CBECS numbers in the figure are based on the definitional scope of buildings included in the CBECS for 1986 through This definition includes parking garages and commercial buildings in manufacturing complexes (buildings that are presumed to be included in the Dodge construction data). Table 1.1 summarizes our post-1992 estimates of floor space in parking garages and commercial buildings on manufacturing facilities. lifetime for all commercial buildings from this estimation was 59 years. For recent years, the survival curve generates an average retirement rate of about 0.7% per year. 3 The floor space stock is periodically updated by PNNL. No recent formal documentation of these estimates has been prepared. The general approach to developing the historical time series of floor space was documented in a 1994 evaluation report prepared by Brookhaven National Laboratory for EERE/BT (Pierce 1994). 4 This assertion is based primarily on the methodology used by the U.S. Census Bureau to estimate the value of new nonresidential construction. In the current methodology, the Census Bureau increases the value of construction from a sample of Dodge construction projects by 25 percent to account for undercoverage of construction projects not covered by MHC (McGraw-Hill Construction). The specific factor is based on periodic comparison of data from Dodge and from building permits. This methodology is discussed in an appendix to the reports related to the value of new construction put in place: In years prior to 2003, the adjustment factor used by the Census Bureau was 28%. Unfortunately, the Census Bureau is concerned only with the value of new construction and so the adjustment factors cannot be assumed to apply equally to floor space. 2

14 (Billion Square Feet) Annual - Using Scaled Dodge Additions CBECS (1992 Building Scope) Figure 1.1. Comparison of Annual Floor Space Stock with CBECS. Table 1.1. CBECS Floor Space Adjusted to 1992 CBECS Building Scope and Definition (Billion Square Feet) CBECS Survey Year "Old" Scope "New" Scope Difference Parking Garages Multibuilding Manufacturing Notes: 1) Old Scope includes parking garages and commercial buildings on multi building manufacturing facilities. For the 1992 CBECS, these building types contained about 3.6 billion square feet. 2) The post-1992 growth in parking garage floor space was estimated by converting new construction expenditure data from the Bureau of Census into constant 2006 dollars (assuming a 5 percent increase in the construction price deflator from 2005 to 2006). These estimates were converted to floor space by assuming a constant $13,000 per new parking space and an average of 350 square feet per parking space in dedicated parking facilities. The figure of $13,000 per space was based on information supplied by Walker Parking Consultants (to be published in the next edition of the ITE Transportation Planning Handbook.) The relatively large percentage increase in parking garage floor space is consistent with several other data sources: 1) An inference from unpublished Dodge data yields an estimated 160 million sq. ft. of new parking garages built in ) The International Parking Institute indicates an additional 4.4 million parking spaces in structures have been built over the past fifteen years, representing approximately 1.5 billion square feet (personal communication, Kim Jackson, International Parking Institute, message transmitted on November 2, 2006). However, some of these parking spaces are in facilities other than parking garages (e.g., office buildings, high-rise apartment buildings, etc.) 3

15 3) The floor space estimates for commercial buildings on multibuilding manufacturing complexes were left unchanged, as manufacturing employment grew very little during the 1990s and had declined in Given these estimates of historical commercial floor space, it is straightforward to calculate a series of aggregate energy intensities. This report focuses on electricity intensity. Figure 1.2 compares the national average electricity intensities (in kwh/sq. ft.) derived from the supply surveys versus the intensities from various CBECS. 5 The commercial electricity sales data is taken from EIA s Annual Energy Review. The difference in the historical pattern between the supply and end-user surveys is striking. The periodic CBECS suggest a slight upward trend in electricity consumption per square foot from A linear trend line based on a linear regression for the seven CBECS from 1986 to 2003 is inserted in the figure to illustrate this assertion kwh/sq. ft Supply Survey-Based CBECS (adjusted to 1992 bldg. scope) CBECS (Trend) Year Figure 1.2. Comparison of Electricity Intensities Based Upon Supply Survey and CBECS 5 As discussed above, the 1995 CBECS and later CBECS exclude parking garages and commercial buildings in multibuilding industrial/manufacturing complexes. When estimates of the square footage and electricity use for these building types are included for these later years, the average all-building intensities are about 0.1 kwh/sq. ft. lower than the published values. For 1983, the intensity of kwh/sq.ft.derived from information provided on EIA s CBECS website in a section entitled Trends in the Commercial Buildings Sector. See website As derived from the published electricity consumption and floor space values, the aggregate electricity intensities for 1986, 1989, and 1992 are 12.40, and kwh/sq. ft., respectively. The published (revised) values for 1995, 1999, and 2003 are (13.28), (13.69), and (14.75), respectively. 4

16 Figure 1.2 clearly shows that the intensities based on the reported commercial sales by suppliers display distinctly higher rate of increase over the comparable time period. The supply-based intensities shown in Figure 1.2 are based on the published estimates of commercial electricity use in the Annual Energy Review. 6 The original source of this information is from EIA s utility survey Form EIA-861 an annual collection of data from the nation s more than 3,000 electric utilities. Up until 2004, EIA asked utilities to provide sales data for street lighting and other uses. This consumption is included in commercial sales, although some of it is not consumed in commercial buildings. In Section 2, the nature of information collected via Form EIA-861 is discussed in detail. Table 1.2 attempts to quantify the differences in the trend rates of changes among these series. Looking over the twenty-year period , the supply-based electricity intensity has increased about 85 percent faster than the trend rate implied from the various CBECS. Because of year-to-year variation in weather and economic activity, the estimated growth rates are sensitive to the particular end points (years) chosen. For purposes of comparison, we examine the trends over the period For the CBECS, a linear trend line was fitted to the intensities from the seven CBECS, beginning with the 1983 CBECS. This linear trend line is shown as the dashed line in Figure 1.2. Based on the predicted values from this trend line for 1985 and 2005, the annual percentage growth rate was 0.8 percent as shown in the top line of Table 1.2. Several methods can be considered to calculate a comparable growth rate for the supply survey estimates. The first is to select the same seven years corresponding to the CBECS, estimate a linear regression, and compute the annual growth rate between the predicted values for 1985 and This growth rate, 1.59 percent per year, is shown on the top line of Table 1.2. (To avoid complexity, this trend line is not shown in Figure 1.2.) A second method also employs a linear regression, but is based on all 21 years from the 1985 and The growth rate is almost identical (1.61 percent) to the value generated above from only the CBECS years. A third method simply uses the actual intensities only for 1985 and 2005 to compute the annual growth rate. Because this method ignores the very high intensities in the late 1990s and extending through 2002, the annual growth rate is lower by about 0.1 percent per year as compared to regression-based estimates. Using this lowest estimate of the growth rate from the supply survey-based intensities, the growth rate is about 90 percent greater than that based on the CBECS. Table 1.2. Comparison of Annual Growth Rates of Electricity Intensities, CBECS Supply-Survey Based Method for Supply-Survey Growth Rate 0.78 % 1.59 % Linear regression, CBECS years ( ), growth rate based on predicted values for 1985 and 2005 NA 1.61% Linear regression, all years, growth rate based on predicted values for 1985 and 2005 NA 1.47% Growth rate based on actual values for 1985 and The electricity consumption numbers are taken from Table 2.2 in the Annual Energy Review 2005 (EIA 2006). 5

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