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1 ASSESSING RATE TRENDS Of U.S. Electric Utilities Prepared by: Pacific Economics Group, LLC Prepared for: Edison Electric Institute January 2006

2 2006 by the Edison Electric Institute (EEI). All rights reserved. Published Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system or method, now known or hereinafter invented or adopted, without the express prior written permission of the Edison Electric Institute. Attribution Notice and Disclaimer This work was prepared by Pacific Economics Group, LLC for the Edison Electric Institute (EEI). When used as a reference, attribution to EEI is requested. EEI, any member of EEI, and any person acting on its behalf (a) does not make any warranty, express or implied, with respect to the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of the information, advice or recommendations contained in this work, and (b) does not assume and expressly disclaims any liability with respect to the use of, or for damages resulting from the use of any information, advice or recommendations contained in this work. The views and opinions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect those of EEI or any member of EEI. This material and its production, reproduction and distribution by EEI does not imply endorsement of the material. Published by: Edison Electric Institute 701 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C Phone: Web site:

3 Assessing Rate Trends of U.S. Electric Utilities TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Summary... v 1.1 Introduction... v 1.2 Key Findings... v Inflation and Productivity Growth in the U.S. Economy...v How Trends in Retail Power Prices Compare... v Reasons for Power Price Growth... vi Conclusions... vii 2. How Power Price Trends Compare to General Price Inflation Analytical Framework General Price Trends in the U.S. Economy Output Prices Productivity Input Prices Lessons Learned How Retail Trends in Power Prices Compare Reasons for Recent Power Price Growth Input Price Trends Generation Fuels Capital Labor Other O&M Inputs Conclusions Productivity Issues Historical Trends Capital Spending Other Relevant Conditions Appendix: An Analytical Framework For Price Inflation Analysis A.1 Index Logic A.2 Productivity Indexes Edison Electric Institute iii

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5 Assessing Rate Trends of U.S. Electric Utilities 1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY 1.1 Introduction Price escalation occurs frequently in the electric utility sector of the U.S. economy, as it does in other sectors, and in the economy as a whole. While consumers and regulators naturally prefer stable rates for power services, there are sound economic reasons why they must occasionally rise. Regulators and consumers can benefit from a periodic review of these reasons. For industry personnel, these same reasons constitute the daily challenges that they face in their struggle to contain unit cost growth. The Edison Electric Institute is the trade association of U.S. investor-owned electric utilities. It has commissioned Pacific Economics Group to analyze factors affecting electricity rates, and provide a national perspective on the issue of electricity rate increases. This is the report on our work. The plan for the report is as follows. Following a brief summary of results, we provide in the next section a comparison of the trend in retail rates for electricity to the broader inflation trends in the U.S. economy. There follows in Section 3 a discussion of trends in input prices, productivity, and other business conditions that influence retail electric rate growth. 1.2 Key Findings Inflation and Productivity Growth in the U.S. Economy The prices charged for goods and services in our economy tend to rise when productivity growth cannot keep pace with input price growth. Our study reviews the history of price and productivity growth in the U.S. economy since We find that the pace of general price inflation has varied considerably over the years. A period of slow inflation can be followed by a period of much more rapid inflation. In recent years, inflation of about 2 percent has been normal, along with productivity growth of around 1 percent. Since our economy is, for the most part, competitively structured and efficient, such inflation is not by itself symptomatic of poor performance by American companies. The data also show that the chief source of output price inflation in our economy is input price inflation. Energy prices are an important determinant of general price inflation. They have an especially large impact on businesses with energy-intensive technologies How Trends in Retail Power Prices Compare Escalation in the residential price of power was for many decades of the 20th century considerably slower than general price inflation, so that power prices fell considerably in real terms. This encouraged the great reliance on electric power that typifies the modern economy. From 1971 to 1985, a less welcome trend emerged when the price of electricity, spurred in part by surging prices for generation fuels, rose substantially relative to general inflation. Edison Electric Institute v

6 1. Introduction and Summary From 1985 to 2000 power price escalation slowed substantially. The 1.1 percent average annual growth was less than half the 2.4 percent pace of general inflation. The price of power thus fell in real terms during these years. In 2000 it was lower than in 1995 even in nominal terms. Since 2000 this salutary trend has not continued. The 2.5 percent growth in the residential price of power has modestly exceeded the 1.99 percent pace of general inflation. The growth pace is, however, still comparable to or less than the pace for a variety of other important consumer products Reasons for Power Price Growth Input Price Trends Slow input price growth played a major role in the declining real price of power from 1985 to Declines in long-term bond yields and the price of coal, plus an increase in nuclear output, were especially helpful. Unfortunately, most of the favorable input price trends that slowed power price growth have not continued in the last few years. To the contrary, price growth has accelerated markedly for a wide range of utility inputs that includes construction services, directly-employed labor, and generation fuels. Productivity Issues The productivity growth of electric utilities has been generally equal or superior to that of the economy as a whole in the last twenty years. Since, additionally, input price growth facing the industry is not slower than that of the economy, rates for electric services must, like prices for other goods and services, rise in the long run. The timing of capital expenditures is an important determinant of productivity growth for businesses in the shorter run. This consideration is especially important in the electric power industry, which is capital intensive. Capital spending has historically been more bunched in power generation and transmission than in power distribution. These segments of the industry are therefore more prone to occasional and temporary productivity slowdowns when large investments are needed. We present information on investments in the electric utility industry since The evidence suggests that slow growth in the generation and transmission rate bases was an important source of rate stability during the period. This source of productivity growth cannot continue indefinitely. Aging capital investments must eventually be replaced and, in the transmission sector, there are special needs for investments to facilitate its new mission of promoting the development of the competitive regional bulk power markets. Utility investment has accelerated since the year After a prolonged period during which the industry built relatively little new infrastructure, it faces today the need to make new investments to keep the lights on. New facilities are needed to maintain or improve reliability, environmental quality, and fuel diversity. Expiry of Rate Freezes During the 1990s a number of U.S. electric utilities operated under either rate freezes or prescheduled rate reductions. Many of these rate adjustment provisions were components of initiatives to introduce retail competition. Others were components of multi-year rate plans occasioned by mergers or alternative ratemaking. We show that escalation of rates can be expected at the conclusion of many of these freezes. vi Edison Electric Institute

7 Assessing Rate Trends of U.S. Electric Utilities Conclusions After many years of slow growth, inflation in the retail price of power has accelerated in the last few years. This acceleration is due in large measure to changing economic conditions that include more rapid growth in the prices of a wide variety of utility inputs. Rate growth will also help to fund new investments needed to halt the aging of utility plant, promote the development of competitive power markets, and achieve better environmental performance and fuel diversity. The challenge for the industry is, as always, to provide service at the minimum long run cost that is consistent with these economic realities. Edison Electric Institute vii

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9 Assessing Rate Trends of U.S. Electric Utilities 2. HOW POWER PRICE TRENDS COMPARE TO GENERAL PRICE INFLATION In this section we consider how trends in the prices charged by U.S. electric utilities compare to trends in the prices of other final goods and services. We begin by presenting a framework for inflation analysis. We then consider some general price trends in the economy. There follows a comparison to the trend in the retail price of electricity. 2.1 Analytical Framework Analysis of price trends is facilitated by some fundamental results of economic research. In an industry that earns, in the long run, a competitive rate of return, it can be shown that the trend in the prices charged is the difference between the trends in the prices paid for inputs and in the industry s total factor productivity ( TFP ). 1 trend Output Prices = trend Input Prices trend Productivity This analytical result applies to utility industries as well as to competitively-structured industries and the economy as a whole. TFP is the efficiency with which firms convert production inputs into goods and services for sale. TFP growth permits companies to raise the prices that they charge more slowly than the growth in the prices they pay for inputs. Sources of long term TFP growth include technological change and the realization of scale economies. In the short run, TFP growth is sensitive to capacity utilization and the timing of capital investments. 2.2 General Price Trends in the U.S. Economy Table 1 and Figures 1 and 2 present information on the output price and productivity trends of the U.S. economy during the postwar period. The results for output price inflation are reported for the period We use as our inflation measure the gross domestic product price index ( GDP-PI ). This is the federal government s featured measure of inflation in the prices of final goods and services. Consumer products are the most important category of final goods and services by far. GDP-PI growth is therefore similar to growth in the comprehensive consumer price index ( CPI ) that is computed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ( BLS ). The GDP-PI also tracks inflation in the prices of capital equipment and certain governmental services. The broader coverage makes the GDP-PI less sensitive to energy price volatility. We also present the multi-factor productivity ( MFP ) index for the U.S. private business sector. This is also calculated by the BLS and is widely considered to be the best available measure of the TFP growth of the U.S. economy. Results for this index are only available through 2002 currently. 1 This analytical framework is discussed more thoroughly in the Appendix. Edison Electric Institute 1

10 2. How Power Price Trends Compare to General Price Inflation Table 1: Price & Productivity Trends of the U.S. Economy, Gross Domestic Product Price Index a Multifactor Productivity, U.S. Private Business Sector b U.S. Input Price Inflation Year Index Growth Rate [A] d Index Growth Rate [B] d Growth Rate [A+B] d % % 8.89% % % 3.07% % % 3.63% % % 1.06% % % 6.03% % % 2.91% % % 4.81% % % 2.84% % % 4.49% % % 1.88% % % 3.37% % % 4.94% % % 3.92% % % 5.31% % % 5.05% % % 5.81% % % 3.32% % % 6.69% % % 4.45% % % 5.03% % % 7.99% % % 7.02% % % 8.24% % % 5.06% % % 10.04% % % 9.26% % % 7.82% % % 8.07% % % 7.61% % % 6.47% % % 9.19% % % 2.55% % % 6.65% % % 6.74% % % 4.26% % % 3.78% % % 2.90% % % 4.14% % % 4.27% % % 4.46% % % 2.76% % % 4.90% % % 2.71% % % 3.17% % % 1.71% % % 3.67% % % 2.48% % % 2.24% % % 2.76% % % 3.46% % % 2.47% % % 3.61% % NA NA NA % NA NA NA c 2.15% NA NA NA Average Annual Growth Rates d % 1.26% 4.81% % NA NA a Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis b Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics c The 2005 index value is the ratio of Quarter II 2005 value and Quarter II 2004 value multiplied by 2004 value d Growth rates are computed logarithmically NA=Not Available 2 Edison Electric Institute

11 Assessing Rate Trends of U.S. Electric Utilities Figure 1: Price Inflation in the U.S. Economy, % 9% 8% Logarithmic Growth Rates 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Year Gross Domestic Product Price Index Figure 2: Price Productivity Trends of the U.S. Economy, Natural Logarithm of Index Value Year Gross Domestic Product Price Index Multifactor Productivity, U.S. Private Business Sector U.S. Input Price Inflation Edison Electric Institute 3

12 2. How Power Price Trends Compare to General Price Inflation Output Prices Inspecting the results of Table 1, it is notable first of all that since 1950 the GDP-PI has grown at a 3.47 percent average annual pace. This 55 year sample period encompasses sub-periods in which inflationary conditions were quite varied. From 1950 to 1958, for example, inflation averaged 2.72 percent per annum. A period ensued from 1959 to 1965 in which inflation slowed to a 1.35 percent average annual pace. From 1966 to 1973, economic policies coincident to the Vietnam War produced inflation averaging 4.32 percent annually more than three times the previous pace. From 1974 to 1982, GDP-PI inflation further accelerated to a 7.53 percent average annual pace. Sharply higher prices for energy products, triggered by two overseas oil supply disruptions, were an important contributing factor. These shocks affected GDP-PI growth directly by raising the prices consumers paid for gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas. GDP-PI growth was also stimulated indirectly as higher prices for energy inputs used in production (e.g., fuel oils, coal, and natural gas) raised the cost of making other products. The impact of energy price growth on the inflation in the prices of other industries was greater the greater was the energy intensiveness of their production technologies. For example, it had a greater impact on prices for air and ground transportation than on prices for banking and insurance services. After 1982, GDP-PI inflation gradually decelerated for many years. By the late 1990s it averaged only 1.52 percent annually, a pace similar to that of the early 1960s. Since 1999, inflation has accelerated modestly to a 2.04 percent average annual pace. This is due in part to a rebound in prices for energy products that we discuss further below Productivity Results for productivity growth are found in Table 1 and in Figure 2. We find that over the period the MFP of the U.S. private business sector averaged 1.26 percent annual growth. The period encompasses sub-periods in which productivity trends varied. However, variations were not as marked as we have noted for output price inflation. The period, for instance, featured rather brisk 1.9 percent average annual productivity growth. The period witnessed a considerable slowdown in MFP growth to a 0.56 percent average annual pace. From 1996 to 2002, the latest year for which numbers are available, MFP growth rebounded to a 1.19 percent average annual rate. This acceleration has been attributed in part to the diffusion of digital technologies Input Prices We can use these numbers and our analytical framework to obtain a rough estimate of the input price trend of the economy. Results are found in Table 1 and Figure 2. It can be seen that, over the full period for which data are available for both GDP-PI and MFP, input price inflation averaged 4.81 percent annually. This is well above the 1.26 percent growth trend of MFP over the same period. The period encompassed sub-periods in which input price growth differed considerably from the 4.81 percent norm. From , for instance, it averaged 3.8 percent annually. Escalation during the period was significantly higher, averaging 5.6 percent. During the oil price shock years, from , input price growth averaged an even higher 7.9 percent. Since then, input price growth has decelerated, and averaged only 2.7 percent from Edison Electric Institute

13 Assessing Rate Trends of U.S. Electric Utilities Lessons Learned This review of postwar U.S. inflation history provides some lessons that are valuable in appraising electric utility rate trends. One is that the pace of price inflation in our economy varies from year to year. A period of slow inflation can be followed by a period of much more rapid inflation. Another important lesson is that price inflation is the norm for American firms. In recent years, for instance, we noted above that inflation of about 2 percent has been normal. Since our economy is, for the most part, competitively structured and efficient by international standards, such inflation is not by itself symptomatic of poor performance by American producers. Instead, firms that are typically spurred by strong performance incentives have evidently not been able to achieve TFP growth that matches input price growth. Note, finally, that these data show that the chief source of output price inflation in our economy is input price inflation. Energy prices are an especially important source of price volatility. During the period, for instance, when input price growth averaged 7.9 percent annually, productivity growth was able to reduce average output price inflation only to 7.7 percent annually. Thus, there is no reason to expect productivity growth to providentially surge in a period of rapid fuel price inflation. If anything, productivity growth may slow as higher fuel prices slow the pace of demand growth and thereby reduce capacity utilization and the realization of scale economies. 2.3 How Retail Trends in Power Prices Compare Table 2 and Figure 3 compare the trend in the electricity prices paid by U.S. households to the trend in the GDP-PI over quite a long sample period, Our measure of power price inflation is the CPI for electricity. 2 This is computed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is used by that agency as a subindex in the construction of the widely-monitored comprehensive CPI. Results of the comparison for the full sample period are depicted in Figure 2. It can be seen that in the first half of the period the price of electricity rose much more slowly than the GDP-PI. From 1929 to 1948, the price of electricity actually fell materially in nominal terms. Thereafter, the price began to rise gradually. However, the pace of price growth was still considerably slower than that of the GDP-PI for many years. The price of power thus fell considerably in real terms. For example, the price fell by around 2 percent annually in real terms in the second half of the 1960s. The downward trend in the real price of electricity came to an end in From 1971 to 1984 the price of electricity in fact rose substantially relative to the GDP-PI. Since 1984, the price of power has risen much more slowly and at a pace that has been slower in most years than GDP-PI inflation. 2 Measures of national trends in the prices of power to commercial and industrial establishments that have comparable quality are unfortunately unavailable. The move to retail competition in many states has been one contributing factor. Another is the frequent recategorization of sales by utilities between the commercial and industrial categories. These changes would be less problematic if data on commercial and industrial power prices were gathered from the business establishments that consume it. However, end user sampling is undertaken by the BLS only in the residential sector. Edison Electric Institute 5

14 2. How Power Price Trends Compare to General Price Inflation Table 2: Output Price Trends of the U.S. Power Industry and the Economy, GDPPI a CPI Electricity b Year Index Growth Rate-Nominal [A] c Index Growth Rate-Nominal [B] c Growth Rate-Real [B]-[A] c % % 2.09% % % 8.89% % % 11.35% % % 1.55% % % % % % -7.19% % % -4.37% % % -5.59% % % 0.21% % % -0.46% % % -1.90% % % -6.99% % % -8.21% % % -5.80% % % -2.33% % % -3.25% % % % % % % % % -4.80% % % 1.16% % % -0.42% % % -5.91% % % -1.42% % % 0.16% % % -0.70% % % -0.07% % % -3.07% % % -3.10% % % -0.95% % % 0.19% % % -0.04% % % -1.12% % % -1.36% % % -1.06% % % -1.85% % % -2.14% % % -2.81% % % -2.38% % % -3.18% % % -2.88% % % -1.97% % % 1.51% % % 0.64% % % -0.50% % % 7.86% % % 3.51% % % 0.40% % % 0.22% % % 0.53% % % -0.52% % % 5.74% % % 5.05% % % 3.48% % % -0.69% % % 2.58% % % 0.36% % % -0.82% % % -3.04% % % -2.01% % % -0.88% % % -1.48% % % 0.26% % % -0.33% % % -0.28% % % -2.10% % % 0.23% % % -0.19% % % -1.11% % % -5.03% % % -2.14% % % -0.59% % % 4.61% % % -2.90% % % 0.38% % % -0.75% % % 1.57% Average Annual Growth Rates d % 1.79% -1.15% a Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis b Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics c Growth rates are computed logarithmically 6 Edison Electric Institute

15 Assessing Rate Trends of U.S. Electric Utilities Figure 3: Output Price Trends of the U.S. Power Industry and the Economy, Natural Logarithm of Index Value Year GDPPI CPI-U Electricity The failure of power prices to continue falling in real terms merits some explanation. A sharp run-up in the prices of generation fuels was clearly part of the explanation during the period. The technology for bundled power service is, after all, energy intensive much like the technologies of the airline and trucking industries. Another consideration has been a slowdown in electric utility productivity growth to a pace that is more similar to that of the economy. Reasons for this include a slowdown in the realization of scale economies. This slowdown has been due in part to generally slower demand growth and in part to the exhaustion by some of the larger U.S. electric utilities of the scale economies available from current technology. Other reasons for the end of falling real prices for power have included: a marked slowdown in the development of new hydro-electric resources in the United States. diminished availability of low cost hydro power from Canada since 1990, the expansion in the demand-side management services offered by utilities. DSM has improved energy efficiency but also tended to raise electric rates by raising cost while slowing output growth. Figure 4 provides a detailed comparison of the growth rates of the CPI for power and the GDP-PI since From 1985 to 2000, the price of power averaged only 1.1 percent annual growth. This was less than half the 2.4 percent average annual GDP-PI inflation. The price of power thus fell considerably in real terms. It was, in fact, lower in 2000 than in 1995 even in nominal terms. Since 2000 this salutary trend has not continued. The 2.5 percent growth in the price of power modestly exceeds the 1.99 percent average annual GDP-PI inflation. Edison Electric Institute 7

16 2. How Power Price Trends Compare to General Price Inflation Table 3 and Figure 5 compare the CPI for electricity to the comprehensive national CPI and the national CPIs for several other core consumer products. The period considered is 1980 to the present. It can be seen that inflation was the norm for the comprehensive CPI and all of the individual products. Escalation in the price of power was less rapid than those for food, housing, and transportation and far below the escalation in medical care prices. Figure 4: Output Price Trends of the U.S. Power Industry and the Economy, % 12% 10% Logarithmic Growth Rates 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% * -4% Year GDPPI CPI-U Electricity 8 Edison Electric Institute

17 Assessing Rate Trends of U.S. Electric Utilities Table 3: Price Trends for Electricity and Other Core Consumer Products, Food Housing Medical Care Transportation Electricity CPI-Comprehensive Year Index Growth Rate b Index Growth Rate b Index Growth Rate b Index Growth Rate b Index Growth Rate b Index Growth Rate b % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2005* % % % % % % Average Annual Growth Rates a % 3.51% 5.85% 2.88% 2.68% 3.44% % 2.82% 4.30% 2.18% 2.84% 2.44% a Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics b Growth rates are computed logarithmically Figure 5: Price Trends for Electricity and Other Consumer Products, Natural Log of Index Value Year Food Housing Medical Care Transportation Electricity CPI-Comprehensive Edison Electric Institute 9

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19 Assessing Rate Trends of U.S. Electric Utilities 3. REASONS FOR RECENT POWER PRICE GROWTH In Section 2 we noted that the slow growth in retail electric prices that typified the fifteen years from 1985 to 2000 hasn t continued in more recent years. Power price growth has accelerated since 2000 and now modestly exceeds GDP-PI inflation. It is understandable that regulators and consumers would be concerned about these developments. In this section we consider some of the forces that have contributed to recent power price escalation. 3.1 Input Price Trends Electric utilities are in the business of supplying power and delivering it to other power transporters and end users. The delivery of power is far more capital intensive than the typical business in the U.S. economy. Power distribution is more labor intensive than transmission due to the greater importance in the distribution business of customer services such as meter reading and customer information. The impact of particular input prices on the cost of power supply depends on the degree to which a utility self-generates. Power generation involves the conversion of chemical, nuclear, and hydrologic forms of energy to the more convenient electrical form. Most generation technologies are capital intensive. Fossilfueled generation, by far the most common type in this country, is also quite fuel intensive. Many utilities also purchase a sizable share of the power that they sell to customers. Reliance on bulk power markets is especially great for the utility distribution companies that have resulted in some states from the sale or spin-off of power plants. Power prices in bulk markets are sensitive to trends in the prices of generation fuels. Natural gas price trends have amplified importance since gas-fired generation is often the marginal source of supply in the market. Bulk power prices depend, additionally, on the balance of demand and production capacity in a given region. In a capacity-constrained market, power prices can be very high even if fuel prices are not. It follows from this discussion that trends in rates for electricity are especially sensitive to trends in the prices of capital, generation fuels, and purchased power. However, the trends in utility rates also depend materially on trends in prices for labor and other operation and maintenance (O&M) inputs Generation Fuels Table 4 and Figure 6 present trends in the prices of the major generation fuels used by U.S. utilities. Price trends are detailed for coal, gas, and residual fuel oil. The most vivid impression conveyed by these data is that the prices of these fuels are volatile. For example, these prices accelerated markedly during and shortly after the crude oil price shocks of the period. 3 Sharp run-ups in energy prices are likely in any future oil price shock as well. The risk of an oil price shock is clearly material in the foreseeable future due to the continuing instability of political conditions in the Middle East. 3 The price of coal is, however, generally more stable than the prices of oil and gas. For example, the price of coal rose sharply during the first oil price shock but not the second. Edison Electric Institute 11

20 3. Reasons for Recent Power Price Growth Fuel prices trended downward for many years after reaching the peak levels of the 1980s. The price of coal, for instance, declined every year from 1983 to Natural gas and residual fuel oil prices fell sharply in 1986 when the price of crude oil plunged. Prices of both fuels thereafter displayed little or no trend through the late 1990s. The prices of generation fuels have rebounded considerably since From , the price of natural gas has averaged 8.8 percent annual growth and the price of residual fuel oil 11.0 percent growth. Coal prices were slower to catch fire but have averaged 9.1 percent growth since Table 4: Growth in Inputs Prices: Generation Fuels Coal Natural Gas Residual Fuel Oil Year Price a Growth Rate g Price b Growth Rate g Price c Growth Rate g % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % d 11.93% 6.80 e 11.27% f 34.45% % 2.98% 4.33% % 15.08% 11.23% % -3.12% 0.95% % 8.80% 11.01% g Growth rates are computed logarithmically C S & a Source, except in 2005: EIA, Annual Energy Review, Table 7.8 Total Coal, includes Bituminous, Subbituminous, Lignite & Anthracite b Source, except in 2005: EIA, Annual Energy Review, Table 6.8 Natural Gas Prices in Electric Power Sector csource, except in 2005: EIA, Annual Energy Review, Table 5.23, Sellers Sales Prices for Residual Fuel Oil, data backcasted using crude oil prices & 1987 residual fuel oil price d Source, 2005: EIA, Electric Power Monthly, Table 4.2, Ratio of 03/05 price and 03/04 price multiplied by the 2004 value e Source, 2005: EIA, U.S. Natural Gas Prices, Ratio of 02/05 price and 02/04 price multiplied by the 2004 value f Source, 2005: EIA, Table 19, U.S. Refiner Residual Fuel Oil Prices, Ratio of 04/05 price and 04/04 price multiplied by the 2004 value 12 Edison Electric Institute

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