1 Bijlage B: Overzichtsdocument per megatrend studie European Commission The World in 2025: 'Rising Asia and Socio-Ecological Transition' Methodiek: Horizon: 2025 Structuur: Systemisch verband: Focus: Sectoriële bias: meta-literatuurstudie, consultatie experten en ambtenaren 3 megatrends, 3 spanningsvelden, 2 transitiepaden sterk, overkoepelende structuur governance matig Methodiek: "This report has benefited from the discussions of the group of experts set up by the European Commission in 2008, has taken stock of the most recent publications in the field of Foresight and Forward looking activities, and includes most of the reflection of different Commission Directorates-General." (p. 7) Horizon: 2025 Focus: governance, beïnvloeding beleidsagenda EU Structuur: "The World in 2025 first underlines the major future trends: geopolitical transformations in terms of population, economic development, international trade or poverty. The Asian Century Poverty and mobility of men and women Increasing scarcity of natural resources, vulnerability of the planet Secondly, it elucidates the tensions: between the current methods of production, of consumption and the future availability of non renewable resources; Tensions between a general and simultaneous process of increasing economic interdependence and differentiation between political/governance approaches, economic approaches, and inequities; Tensions between spatial proximity in the context of accelerated urbanisation and cultural distance. To the recollection of these observable tensions one could add examples of bifurcations and other unforeseeable turbulences ( wild cards ) which could shape the next two decades. Lastly, transitional pathways have been drawn: towards a new production and consumption model, towards new rural-urban dynamics, towards a new gender and intergenerational balance. In summary, the sub-title of this publication Rising Asia and socio-ecological transition is explicit and could be an inspiring source for the future strategy of the European Union. (p. 7)
2 Alcatel Lucent - Megatrends: A Wave of Change Impacting the Future Methodiek: Horizon: Structuur: megatrends Systemisch verband: Focus: Sectoriële bias: onderzoeksproject niet welomlijnd (10-20 jaar) 7 'megatrends', onderliggende trends, impacten van medium, conceptueel kader (systeemkaart) Business sterk Methodiek: "Alcatel-Lucent and the ENPC School of International Management have completed a joint research project created to identify and investigate megatrends that have the potential to fundamentally transform society in general and the information and communications technology industry (ICT), in particular." Each megatrend was analyzed using a Megatrends Framework (Figure 1), which deconstructs each megatrend into underlying trends and trend drivers, on the one hand, and identifies the impact of each megatrend in terms of regional, industrial and political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal (PESTEL) impacts, on the other. Definitie 'megatrend': "A megatrend is defined as a gathering wave of change that is slow to form, nearly impossible to reverse, significantly influences the future, has an aura of inevitability and has a far- and wide-reaching impact on society. Megatrends result from the confluence of underlying trends. A megatrend typically traverses, transcends and transforms the industries it washes over while catalyzing the formation of new industries. The identification of megatrends as they are evolving is valuable in terms of providing guidance for decision-making regarding future development and investment." Focus: analyse toekomstige business omgeving ICT sector. Horizon: geen welomlijnde horizon maar houdt rekening met de typische levenscyclus van megatrends: "megatrends follow a cycle, with stages corresponding to the four main phases usually identified in the PLC: introduction, growth, maturity and decline". De eerste twee fasen worden geacht 5 tot 10 jaar te duren is het vaakst geciteerde toekomstige jaartal in deze studie. Structuur: This research initiative identified seven megatrends: (24x7 Connectivity), refers to the always on generation of people, but increasingly of objects too, which are connected to the net. In a world in which technology is nearly ubiquitous, connectivity is now the expected norm and nonconnectivity carries a price (real or imagined, social or professional). 2. Digital native acceleration, refers to the recent mainstreaming of generations who have grown up with digital technology and the rapidly rising percentage of these Digital Natives who will hold key management and leadership positions. 3. Ed-you-cation, refers in part to the on-going shift, facilitated by ICT, from institutionbased learning to individual-centered learning. 4. Netizens to Government (N2G), refers to the new ways in which citizens are using digital media to interact with elected officials, governments and the public sector to induce or oppose change. 5. Neo-urbanization, describes the mutations that are changing the face of urbanization as we know it, and considerably blurring the boundaries
3 between traditional definitions of urban, suburban, and rural regions. 6. Rejuvenaging, refers to the frontiers of aging and rejuvenation, as well as the farreaching implications of rapidly-increasing life expectancies in many parts of the world. 7. Sustainable by design (SBD), refers to the accelerated transition from sustainability as a source of competitive advantage to a competitive imperative that must be included in most aspects of modern business across all industries. The over-riding impact of these megatrends is that they are rapidly narrowing the divide between developed and developing economies. The ICT sector is increasingly at the nexus of all of these developments, as a catalyst and a beneficiary, as well as a potential victim of the rapid change ICT has induced across all areas of the economy and in modern lifestyles. The Futures Report 2011 Commissioned by Steria Prepared by Global Futures and Foresight Methodiek: meta-literatuurstudie Horizon: 2050 Structuur: 16 'megatrends' Systemisch inzicht: laag, narratief Focus: Business, van Europa > Wereld Sectoriële bias: sterk Methodiek: "In commissioning The Future, Steria has requested that Global Futures and Foresight (GFF) analyse more than 150 published sources in order to provide a broad-ranging yet concise synopsis of our world s evolution across a range of topics throughout the next 40 years." Focus: Gedeelde visie creëren op uitdagingen en opportuniteiten voor de toekomst in de sector van IT Services. De focus wordt in belangrijke mate bepaald door een sectoriële bias. Het rapport gaat in essentie over de ontwikkelingen waarmee Europese bedrijven in de komende decennia rekening zullen moeten houden in het vrijwaren van hun competitiviteit. "Of course an organisation of Steria s heritage is bound to include Outsourcing and Technology as two areas of consideration, but our clients know that we understand the importance of the broader context in which we all operate, and so in considering subjects as diverse as Globalisation and Business Models, this report is designed to prompt discussion with our clients and their customers to understand how we can all best position ourselves to take advantage of our future opportunity."
4 Horizon: 2050 Structuur: een bespreking van 16 'megatrends' (hoewel niet als dusdanig benoemd) die met elkaar geassocieerd worden in een losse, narratieve logica. Het aspirationele en contextuele zijn nauw met elkaar verweven. Er wordt vanuit een forecasting logica gewerkt. Population: In the past 50 years, we ve doubled the number of people alive on our planet, reaching 7 billion people this year. In the next 40 years we are expecting over 2 billion more people to be alive than today. Economy: At the same time, and as a direct consequence of this population growth, we are forecasting that our global economy will triple in size by and is set to have doubled to over $130 trillion in just twenty years time, in Much of this growth is amongst the emerging economies of the world, including China, Brazil, India, Mexico and Russia. Political authority: Apart from the economic influence, that will shift from the US and Europe to Asia, the political authority will shift to these fast growing emergent nations. new governance, based on different values and beliefs, will begin to impact how business and the world are run. Middle class: Over 70 million people are entering the middle class every year and most of them are from emerging economies. Urbanisation: As a consequence 20 of the world s largest 50 cities will be in Asia by 2025, up from only eight in By 2050 it is forecast that 70 percent, of the then 9 billion people, will live in cities. Infrastructure: All this concentration into our cities comes at a high price in terms of the infrastructure and resources that are required to sustain their populations. Over $40 trillion is required to be spent in the next 40 years to provide the infrastructure to support our choices to live in cities. Resources: China is expected to consume a third of all global energy used by 2035, much of which will need to be provided by renewable energy sources if we are to avoid the worst affects of global climate change. We must become dramatically more effective in managing how we use energy, recycle our waste and materials and how we consume. Food: The population of 9 billion by 2050 will eat increasingly well and consume at the base calorific rate equal to 13 billion people today. We will therefore need to consider our consumption of meat very carefully. Technology: The internet has expanded to reach 1.7 billion people today and is expected to reach 5 billion people across the planet by The raw materials of today s technology are not inexhaustible. Technology is birthing new business models and is set to continue its disruptive and enabling role in the coming decades. Control: Firms will need to start to let go of control across their networks and allow their staff access to their preferred communication tools. This will lead to happier and more productive staff. Social media: Companies are increasingly becoming networks of collaborating firms and individuals operating across national boundaries. Agility, creativity, innovation and collaboration are the watchwords for the successful company in the coming decades. Outsourcing: We are letting-go of functions and processes that are important to our company s success and increasingly outsourcing them to others to manage for us. Innovation and creativity are two areas where we will increasingly invite others to help us.
5 Online: This next decade will be much about making sense of the mass of information available on the internet including who to engage with. Workforce: It s predicted that there will be an increase of 50 percent in international assignments by Increasingly we will use video, avatars and immersive technology to supplement our need to travel. As the working population across the European Union is set to fall by 68 million in the next 40 years we will have to be clear about what s automated, what functions require human interaction and how we facilitate those interactions. Work: We expect that service based job roles will increase by over 800 percent in the UK by 2017 and those in the hospitality sector by over 200 percent. To maintain our workforce we will increasingly hire women, the aged and disabled people and probably have three or even four generations of employees in our firms for the first time in any numbers. Governments: are recognising that they can no longer afford generous pensions and the European Union Commission has said that the average retirement age across the 27 member countries needs to rise from 60 today to 70 by The EU is setting policy towards car free cities in Europe by Fraunhofer: Future Markets Methodiek: toesnijden van 'grand challenges' naar 'Fraunhofer Challenges' via proces van filtering Horizon: Structuur: 15 grand challenges waaruit 5 Fraunhofer Challenges worden afgeleid Systemisch inzicht: laag, compartimentalisering Focus: S&T, mondiaal Sectoriële bias: zwak (grand challenges), sterk (Fraunhofer challenges) Methodiek: Contextuele analyse van 'grand challenges', gebaseerd op 2009 State of the Future rapport (UN Millennium Project), gevolgd door 'venture game': "The process had a first top-down part, in which global societal challenges were analysed and adapted to Fraunhofer-specific challenges. The specific challenges served as a framework for the second, bottom-up, part of the process. Within a competitive call, institutes teamed up to develop technological solutions to the challenges in the form of collaborative project proposals. The most convincing projects were funded internally." De filtering van grand challenges naar Fraunhofer challenges gebeurde in een aantal stappen. Focus: prospectieve analyse in een poging om het technologisch onderzoek in de Fraunhofer Society (60 instituten, budget 1,65 miljard euro (2010)) af te stemmen op toekomstige 'grand challenges' en nieuwe 'onderzoeksmarkten' te openen in 3 tot 7 jaar tijd. "In order to differentiate from the rather technology-driven processes of the past, a new approach was sought. This new strategy process should orient itself more towards demand-driven questions. That means following the principles
6 of corporate social responsibility and developing new ways for Fraunhofer research markets of the future." Horizon: niet welomlijnd ( ) Structuur: 15 grand challenges 8 grand challenges waarvoor technologische oplossingen bestaan 30 subchallenges Er is ook een tabel met 11 megatrends waarvan de oorsprong in de tekst helaas niet geduid wordt.
8 CSIRO - Our Future World: Global megatrends that will shape the way we live Methodiek: clustering van trends in megatrends op basis continu proces van horizon scanning Horizon: 2030 Structuur: Systemisch inzicht: Focus: Sectoriële bias: 6 megatrends, met onderliggende trends laag, compartimentalisering mondiaal zwak Methodiek: CSIRO heeft een Futures team dat een database opbouwt en beheert van trends die van belang kunnen zijn voor Australische beslissers in business, overheid en middenveld. Op basis hiervan worden megatrends geïdentificeerd door clustering en inhoudelijke verfijning. Op regelmatige tijdstippen wordt een 'Future World' rapport gepubliceerd. De 2012 versie is een tweede iteratie (eerste publicatie: 2010). De verwachting is dat de megatrends inhoudelijk zullen stabiliseren bij volgende iteraties. "The report presents a succinct narrative of the future. The core of the narrative is a set of interlinked global megatrends. They are refined through regular updates to accommodate new issues, new data and new events. (...) Since version one of Our Future World was released in 2010, a vast quantity of information has been provided by experts in academia, industry, community and government networks. Therefore while much of the underlying material is similar there is also much new content and the megatrends have been substantially re-written. However, the content and definition of the megatrends is anticipated to stabilise in coming revisions." Focus: algemene toekomstverkenning op basis van een continue proces van 'horizon scanning'. Bedoeling is om een toekomstperpectief aan te bieden aan Australische beslissingnemers. Horizon: 2030 Structuur: 6 megatrends, die elk besproken worden in termen van hun onderliggende trends. Geen poging tot systemische integratie. Een aspirationele agenda schijnt het werk richting te geven: steevast wordt ook een positief handelingsperspectief belicht als tegengewicht voor de bedreigingen. More from Less: The earth has limited supplies of natural mineral, energy, water and food resources essential for human survival and maintaining lifestyles. Data are revealing many of these resources are being depleted at often alarming rates. At the same time population growth and economic growth are placing upward pressure on demand. The more from less megatrend explores how companies, governments and communities will discover new ways of ensuring quality of life for current and future generations within the confines of the natural world s limited resources. Science, technology, business processes, government policy, lifestyle patterns and cultural norms will all play a role. Going, going... gone?: Many of the world s natural habitats, plant species and animal species are in decline or at risk of extinction. The actions taken by human beings in the coming decades will set the scene for global biodiversity over coming millennia. The going, going...gone? megatrend explores the perilous situation of the world s ecological habitats and
9 biodiversity. This megatrend also captures the issue of greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Much in the natural world, that humans value and depend upon, is at risk of being lost forever. However, there is a positive story and a potentially bright future. The megatrend is purposefully posed as a question. Whilst the state of biodiversity is in decline and the pressure is rising so too is the human response. The Silk Highway: Coming decades will see the world economy shift from west to east and north to south. Rapid income growth in Asia and, to a lesser extent, South America and Africa will see billions of people transition out of poverty and into the middle income classes. The powerhouses of the new world economy are China and India. This economic shift will build new export markets, trade relations, business models and cultural ties for Australia. Tourists, funds and ideas will increasingly flow out of Asian countries and into Australia s economy and society. We are stepping into the Asian Century. Forever Young: The ageing population is an asset. Australia and many other countries that make up the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have an ageing population. Elderly citizens provide a wealth of skills, knowledge, wisdom and mentorship. Nevertheless, there are some challenges associated with an ageing population and associated demographic trends. Two of these challenges include Australia s widening retirement savings gap and rapidly escalating healthcare expenditure. This will change people s lifestyles, the services they demand and the structure and function of the labour market. Virtually Here: This megatrend explores what might happen in a world of increased connectivity where individuals, communities, governments and businesses are immersed into the virtual world to a much greater extent than ever before. We are increasingly moving online to connect, to deliver and access services, to obtain information and to perform transactions such as shopping and working. Online retail and teleworking in Australia are forecast to grow rapidly with impacts on labour markets, retail models, city design and transportation systems. Digital media is allowing people to form new connections and selectively access information through multiple channels with subsequent erosion of trust in traditional information sources. The digitally connected world is virtually here. Great Expectations: This is a consumer, societal, demographic and cultural megatrend. It explores the rising demand for experiences over products and the rising importance of social relationships. This megatrend also captures the expectation people have for personalised services that meet their unique needs and wants whilst being delivered en masse. This megatrend has implications for the Australian retail sector and human service delivery systems of government and private sector organisations. People of the future will have expectations for more personalised, better and faster services. They will seek higher-end experiences due to income growth and the oversupply of mass consumables. Social relationships will hold increased importance given the potential for social media and digital communication burnout and the desire for face-to-face interaction. Conversely, for the billions of impoverished people in the world the expectations are still for the basic necessities of life such as water, food, clothing, shelter and personal security. Many will have great expectations, but many will still have basic expectations.
10 UK Ministry of Defence - Global Strategic Trends - Out to 2040 Methodiek: trendanalyse gevolgd door systeemanalyse, geconsolideerd in 3 integratieve sleutelthema's. Horizon: 2040 Structuur: 4 megatrends, 5 (STEEP) clusters van trends, 5 groepen van strategic shocks, talrijke hot topics, 3 integratieve thema's. Systemisch inzicht: integratie Focus: Sectoriële bias: medium tot hoog, conceptueel kader + narratieve mondiaal sterk Methodiek: trendanalyse, gevolgd door een systeemanalyse (crossdimensional analysis) die geconsolideerd wordt in 3 sleutelthema's (key themes), waarvan de implicaties voor defensie worden geëxploreerd. "Global Strategic Trends is based on driver and trend analysis. The process identifies trends and drivers in the social, science and technology, economic, resource and environment, and geopolitical dimensions. Within each of these dimensions, key trends have been determined through detailed analysis with subject matter experts. A crossdimensional analysis then considers how these trends are likely to develop and interact, in order to establish the key themes: The Human Environment; The Dynamics of Global Power; and Evolving Defence and Security Challenges. The assessments are made to varying degrees of probability to reflect multiple alternative outcomes. The future outlined in Global Strategic Trends is realistic, based on the most probable outcomes, although alternative futures are also explored." Horizon: 2040 Focus: Ontwikkeling van een langetermijn perspectief voor defensieplanning. De scope gaat wel breder dan uitsluitend security-gerelateerde trends: "The DCDC (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre) approach goes beyond solely identifying potential future defence and security challenges to which our Armed Forces will have to respond, and looks at the developments in areas that will shape the wider strategic context within which defence will have to interact. For example, the document addresses subjects such as: the shifting global balance of power; emerging demographic and resource challenges; as well as climate change and societal changes." Het rapport verweeft nadrukkelijk een risico-en een opportuniteitenperspectief: "Previous editions of Global Strategic Trends have been accused of taking a pessimistic view of the future. However, in this edition, we see the opportunities as well as challenges and believe that we provide a realistic assessment. The period out to 2040 will be a time of transition, which is likely to be characterised by instability, both in the relations between states, and in the relations between groups within states. (...) However, it is the manner in which states, their leaders and their populations react to these challenges that will define the era."
11 Structuur: 4 megatrends (genoemd: 'Ring Road Issues') gedefinieerd als 'the 4 key drivers for change that will affect the lives of everyone on the planet.': climate change, globalisation, global inequality, innovation. 5 clusters van trends, op basis van de STEEP typologie: Social, Resources and the Environment, Economic, Geopolitical, Science & Technology. Binnen elke cluster worden trends benoemd (Social: 10 trends, Environment: 11 trends, Economic: 10 trends, Geopolitical: 11 trends, Technology: 16 trends). Met trends worden probabiliteiten geassocieerd die syntactisch gecodeerd worden als 'will', 'is likely to', 'may'. Binnen elke cluster worden 'risks and benefits' van trends benoemd. Binnen elk themagebied en cluster worden 'hot topics' uitgewerkt die vaak (niet altijd) security en defensie elementen verder uitlichten. 5 clusters van 'strategic shocks' (eventueel: wildcards): low probability, high impact events. 3 Key Themes: These key themes identify outcomes from the trends and drivers. They are intended to help: understand interactions between the trends; distinguish between long-term significant changes and short-term turbulence; and identify major challenges and opportunities in the future strategic context. Themes are: how we will adapt to the reality of a shifting climate and breakneck technological innovation (see the Human Environment); the dominance of the West in international affairs will fade and global power will become more evenly distributed between the West and the rising powers in Asia (see the Dynamics of Global Power); and finally, as society and the distribution of global power changes, the challenges to defence and security will increase (see Evolving Defence and Security Challenges). Strategic Shocks. These are high impact events that have the potential to rapidly alter the strategic context.
13 Strategy Dynamics Global SA - Global Trends Report 2013: Towards a Distributed Future Methodiek: analyse werd geënt. Horizon: niet gespecifieerd. Trendanalyse waarop een systemische niet welomlijnd Structuur: Trends, gebundeld in 3 domeinen van verandering. Elk domein wordt geassocieerd met 'implicaties'. Ontwikkelingen in deze domeinen leiden tot 4 spanningsvelden. Systemisch inzicht: Focus: Sectoriële bias: Methodiek: medium tot hoog, conceptueel kader. mondiaal matig niet gespecifieerd. Horizon: niet welomlijnd. Focus: brede en gediversifieerde toekomstanalyse om met name beslissingnemers in business uit te dagen anders over de toekomstige omgeving na te denken. Structuur: 3 'domeinen van verandering': resources, organisations & communities, shapers & influencers. Binnen elk domein worden 'trends' onderscheiden (zie diagramma). Voor elk domein van verandering worden 'implicaties' geëxpliciteerd (deze kunnen eventueel als 'megatrends' geïnterpreteerd worden).
15 De interacties tussen veranderingen in deze domeinen leiden tot 4 spanningsvelden: Fight for control and access: growing importance and competition between organizations for control or access to key resources (op de intersectie van de domeinen 'resources' en 'organisations & communities'); Fight for rules of engagement: Explores who defines and impacts the rules of engagement between and among organizations and communities as they interact, work and live (op de intersectie van de domeinen 'organisations & communities' en 'shapers & influencers'); Fight for value creation and capture: Explores how different organizations define value, who is creating real value and at what point in the economic or business system, and where value is being captured (als enveloppe van de 3 domeinen en 2 vorige spanningsvelden); Fight for values and beliefs: Explores how values and beliefs shape the motivations of individuals and organizations, impact how individuals live their lives and how organizations provide guidance about acceptable and unacceptable behaviours (als enveloppe van de 3 domeinen en 2 vorige spanningsvelden); Ook voor elk van deze spanningsvelden worden de 'implicaties' geëxpliciteerd. De analyse besluit met een set van 5 aangemeten actiedomeinen ('responses') voor zowel de zakelijke wereld en voor de bredere maatschappij.
16 World Economic Forum - Global Risks 2012, Seventh Edition Methodiek: Expertbevraging (survey, interviews, workshops). Horizon: 2022 Structuur: Global risks, gesegmenteerd naar impact en waarschijnlijkheid, naar systemische rol (zwaartepunten, connectors) en geïntegreerd in 3 cases. Systemisch inzicht: medium tot hoog, conceptueel kader + narratieve integratie in 'cases'. Focus: mondiaal Sectoriële bias: laag Methodiek: expertbevraging (via een combinatie van survey, interviews en workshops): "The World Economic Forum s Global Risks 2012 report is based on a survey of 469 experts from industry, government, academia and civil society that examines 50 global risks across five categories." De Global Risks evaluatie is een oefening die regelmatig volgens een evoluerend protocol wordt uitgevoerd. Dit is de 7e editie. Horizon: 2022 Focus: Structured on a 10-year outlook, the survey captured the perceived impact, likelihood and interconnectedness of 50 prevalent global risks. Structuur: 50 belangrijke, mondiale risico's in vijf (STEEP) categorieën: societal, technological, environmental, economic, geopolitical. "The starting point is a set of 50 global risks which are defined as having global geographic scope, cross-industry relevance, uncertainty as to how and when they may occur, and high levels of economic and/or social impact requiring a multistakeholder approach to response." Assessment in termen van waarschijnlijkheid en impact. Systemische segmentering als 'centres of gravity' and 'critical connectors': Chronic fiscal imbalances (economic) Greenhouse gas emissions (environmental) Global governance failure (geopolitical) Unsustainable population growth (societal) Critical systems failure (technological) Severe income disparity (economic) Major systemic financial failure (economic) Unforeseen negative consequences of regulation (economic) Extreme volatility in energy and agriculture prices (economic) Narratieve en systemische integratie van risico's in 3 cases: Seeds of Dystopia: This case underscores the danger that could arise if declining economic conditions jeopardize the social contracts between
17 states and citizens. In the absence of viable alternatives, this could precipitate a downward spiral of the global economy fuelled by protectionism, nationalism and populism. How safe are our safeguards?: As the world grows increasingly complex and interdependent, the capacity to manage the systems that underpin our prosperity and safety is diminishing. Our safeguards may no longer be fit to manage vital resources and ensure orderly markets and public safety. The Dark Side of Connectivity: The impacts of crime, terrorism and war in the virtual world have yet to equal that of the physical world, but there is fear that this could change.