Advice on Scoping for an Integrated Multi-Sector Plan and SEA for the Lower Zambezi Basin NCEA OS25 O90/ISBN

Transcription

1 Advice on Scoping for an Integrated Multi-Sector Plan and SEA for the Lower Zambezi Basin NCEA OS25 O90/ISBN Mozambique

2 your reference Ministry of Coordination of Environmental Affairs To: Mr. Maurício Xerinda Maputo, Mozambique your letter our reference OS25-O90/SG/jz enquiries to Sara Groenendijk direct phone number (030) Date: 22 November 2011 Subject: Advice on Scoping for an Integrated Multi-Sector Plan and SEA for the Lower Zambezi Basin - Mozambique Dear Mr. Maurício Xerinda, In June 2011, you requested the Netherlands Commission for Environmental Assessment to advise on an integrated multi-sector development plan and SEA for the Lower Zambezi Basin. It is my pleasure to submit herewith the advice prepared by an independent working group of the Commission. I would like to draw your attention to the following: The advice proposes an integrated process for planning and SEA. In such a planning process, SEA elements aim to guarantee that environmental and social aspects are fully taken into account in the final plan. The proposed process can thus be instrumental to fulfil the mission of MICOA. The advice stresses the importance of an independent and neutral convenor of the planning/sea process that is recognised as such by all sector authorities involved. The process that we propose leaves undisturbed the competence of sector ministries to formulate their sector plan. It, nevertheless, stimulates that the planning of the sectors involved is done in a coordinated manner. The advice suggests a two-phased approach, the first phase aiming at the coordination of the interests of the sectors involved in a multi-sector agenda; the second aiming at implementing the agenda in the individual sector plans. The advice focuses on recommendations for the first phase of the planning/sea process alone. The NCEA offers to advice on the design, coordination and methodology for the second phase, once the Government of Mozambique has formally taken the decision to agree to the suggested design, coordination and methodology of phase 1.

3 The NCEA would be happy to be kept informed on the use that is made of this advice. I would like to reiterate the willingness of the Commission to continue co-operation with MICOA in the coming years. Yours sincerely, Pieter van der Zaag Chairman of the Working Group on the multi-sector development plan and SEA for the Lower Zambezi Basin, Mozambique cc. Netherlands Embassy Ms. Célia Jordão Mr. Felix Hoogveld

4 Advice on Scoping for an Integrated Multi-Sector Plan and SEA for the Lower Zambezi Basin, Mozambique Advice submitted to the Mozambique Ministry for Environmental Affairs, by a working group of the Netherlands Commission for Environmental Assessment in the Netherlands. the technical secretary the chairman S. Groenendijk P. van der Zaag

5 Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS...1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Description of the Initiative Mandate for this advice and scope Expert working group and scoping mission Planning and SEA, the approach taken by the NCEA ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION The potential of each sector, problems and opportunities Need for, and stage of the planning/sea process THE PLANNING/SEA PROCESS: DESIGN AND COORDINATION Suggested planning/sea process design Responsible agencies, SEA capacity and funding Preconditions for successful application of the suggested approach RECOMMENDED METHODOLOGY FOR PHASE Introduction Methodology for setting a multi-sector agenda PHASE 1 METHODOLOGY: OPERATIONAL ISSUES Introduction Detailed description of Steps 2, 3, 5 and APPENDICES 1. Request for advice 2. Project information 3. Program of the scoping mission 4. Map of the Lower Zambezi Basin 5. Ecosystem services approach 6. Example of a consistency matrix 7. Documents consulted -1-

6 Executive Summary The Lower Zambezi Basin holds the prospect of a future of prosperity and development as it has a high social, economic and ecological potential. This potential is reflected through the various resources that enrich the basin. At the same time, the many resources and respective sectors involved pose a complex challenge for the establishment of a development plan for the region. For the future prospect to come true, a framework that coordinates and monitors the various sector developments is needed. The Ministry for Coordination of Environmental Affairs (MICOA) therefore requested the Netherlands Commission for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) to assist in a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) process that would support the elaboration of a coordinated development plan across sectors, to ensure that these developments benefit the local population and respect ecological values. This advice recommends such an integrated plan and SEA process. Chapter 1 gives a short introduction. Chapter 2 gives some background information on the current state of affairs of the sectors involved. Chapter 3 describes the two recommended phases of the planning/sea process and outlines the preconditions for a successful implementation of this approach. Chapter 4 suggests a methodology for phase 1 of the integrated planning/sea approach, resulting in the definition by the Government of Mozambique of a multi-sector agenda for the development of the lower Zambezi Basin. Finally, chapter 5 discusses some operational issues of phase 1 in more detail. The NCEA suggests that at the end of phase 1 it may be requested to make more detailed recommendations on design and methodology for phase 2 of the suggested plan/sea process. Key recommendations and conclusions in this advice are: Chapter 2: Analysis of the situation The Lower Zambezi Basin has a highly diversified social, economic and ecological potential that offers various opportunities for sustainable development. In order to fully achieve this potential, a coordinated development plan across sectors is urgently needed. The need for such a coordinated development plan across sectors is recognised by the Government of Mozambique, but is still in its starting-up phase. Chapter 3: The planning/sea process: Design and implementation The NCEA recommends a 2-phased approach to the multi-sector development plan/sea process of the Lower Zambezi Basin: the first phase aiming at coordination of the interests of the sectors involved in a multi-sector agenda; the second aiming at implementing the agenda in the individual sector plans (see figure below and Chapter 4). Phase 1: - The NCEA recommends that the first phase defines a multi-sector agenda for future development of the Lower Zambezi Basin. This agenda should be developed in a participative process with all key stakeholders involved. -2-

7 Within government this includes all agencies having formal mandates for the key decisions in the implementation of the agenda. - The NCEA stresses the importance of deciding, first and foremost, the agency that will be formally mandated to convene the multi-sector development process, i.e. the mandated agency. It is fundamental that such an authority is recognised as neutral by all sectors involved and that it is able to take balanced decisions. - The NCEA highlights a number of preconditions for the successful application of the suggested approach in relation to capacities, budget, transparency, commitment, etc. Phase 2: - NCEA recommends that during phase 2 the mandated agency monitors and reports on the development and implementation of the plans and reports to the Council of Ministers on any possible conflicts or issues that need coordination. Chapter 4: Recommended methodology for phase 1 The NCEA suggests to use a 10 step approach in developing the multi-sector agenda for the Lower Zambezi Basin. Step 1 is the preparation of a formal mandate from the Council of Ministers, including: an assignment to initiate the planning/sea process, guidelines, principles and boundaries for this planning/sea process, an agency mandated to convene this process and reservation of the necessary financial resources. Step 2 is the establishment of institutional bodies that support the planning/sea process, including: a steering committee, an inter-governmental advisory platform, a public private platform and a quality review mechanism. Where needed, the steering committee commissions expert studies. The NCEA advises that the mandated agency and MICOA provide secretariat functions to the different institutional bodies. For this secretariat function a dedicated fund should be available. Step 3 is setting the geographical and time boundaries and describing the political and legal context. Step 4 is identifying the business as usual scenario: what environmental, social and economic development is expected without a multi-sector development plan. This scenario is intended to form the basis for a comparison with the common multisector scenario as suggested in step 8. Step 5 is the development of individual sector scenarios, integrating social, environmental and economic issues. The NCEA recommends the scenario development process to occur in a participative manner, where all relevant members of the steering committee participate, and where the inter-governmental advisory platform and the public private platform are consulted. In step 6 these sector scenarios are cross-checked, e.g. using consistency analysis, to find synergies and conflicts in the development of sectors. Step 7 is the organisation of an independent quality assurance of the sector scenarios and later of the multi-sector scenario. In step 8 the individual sector scenarios are combined into an integrated common multi-sector scenario : the best combination of all sector scenarios developed. The NCEA advises to assess this scenario on its main social, environmental and economic impacts and to compare the results of this assessment to the impacts of the -3-

8 business as usual scenario. The NCEA stresses that this common multi-sector scenario should not be seen as a blueprint for the developments in the Basin, but that it aims to underline the urgency of phase 2 and create a common starting point for this phase. In step 9 the common multi-sector scenario is translated into a multi-sector agenda for the Lower Zambezi Basin. In step 10 phase 2 is designed on basis of the multi-sector agenda. Chapter 5: Operational issues in phase 1 The NCEA suggests a number of stakeholders to be included in the different institutional bodies. In each of the institutional bodies that are going to be set up, and in each of the levels they operate, participation and cooperation across parties is of high importance. The NCEA lists a number of relevant national laws and policies, and international treaties and agreements. However, this list is not exhaustive. The NCEA stresses the importance of a solid assessment of the political and legal context in order to determine the boundaries within which the planning process has to take place. Participation is particularly important in the development of sector scenarios. Governmental and non-governmental stakeholders that are directly or indirectly related to and/or influenced by a specific sector should be involved in the scenario development process for this sector. The NCEA makes a first analysis of synergies, bottlenecks and issues, both within sectors and those relating to the interdependencies among sectors. These should be analysed more in depth, e.g. by applying a consistency analysis across the various sector scenarios. Schematic overview of key elements of the suggested planning and SEA approach for the Lower Zambezi Basin. PHASE 1 Multi-sector agenda Council of Ministers formalises mandate PHASE 2 Implementation MULTI SECTOR DEVELOPMENT PLAN & SEA Planning Methodology Responsibilities Steps 1-10 Define multi-sector agenda Step 5 Mining scenario Step 7 Environment & social Agriculture scenario Water scenario Other Common multi-sector scenario development & assessment Steering committee (SC) Inter-governmental advisory platform (IAP) Public private platform (PPP) Convenor: Mandated agency Secretariat function: Mandated agency / MICOA SC working group IAP working group Implementation plan Mining Formal Decision Implementation plan Agriculture Formal Decision Implementation plan Water Formal Decision Other Formal Decision PPP working group Convenor: Mandated agency Secretariat function: Mandated agency / MICOA -4-

9 1. Introduction 1.1 Description of the Initiative The Lower Zambezi Basin, i.e. the Mozambican part of the Zambezi River Basin 1, has a high social, economic and ecological potential. Recent socio-economic developments can make the Lower Zambezi the second socio-economic pole of Mozambique, strategically located in the centre of the country. Recently, vast coal reserves have been discovered in the Lower Zambezi Basin. These reserves are mainly concentrated around the provincial capital city of Tete. The Government of Mozambique has issued mining concessions that may lead to a production of 100 million tonnes of coal per year by 2025, with a potential export value exceeding 10 billion USD per year. Mining is therefore a major economic potential of the region. Mining activities, moreover, will bring about substantial investment in transport infrastructure, as transportation facilities are needed in order to connect the province of Tete to the coast. In addition, the Lower Zambezi Basin provides an agriculture and fisheries based subsistence economy for 2.6 million people. From the first colonial settlements, it offered opportunities for the production of agricultural commodities such as rice, sugar and copra (the kernel of the coconut, mainly used to produce coconut oil). Plans exist for extensive new irrigation developments of up to 90,000 hectares, which would make the region the most important breadbasket of the country. Shrimps originating from coastal fisheries, which extend to the rich Sofala banks facing the Zambezi delta and depend on the river s annual high flows, is one of Mozambique s premier export products (valued at approximately 50 million USD per year). With the commissioning of the Cahora Bassa dam in 1984, the Zambezi is Mozambique s major source of electricity, reaching a value of an estimated 500 million USD per year. Plans to expand the dam s electricity generating capacity and to construct an additional reservoir are at an advanced stage. They will double electricity production and will further boost the Lower Zambezi Basin as a major source of renewable energy for the Southern African region. The Zambezi delta has unique ecological features, with the Marromeu RAMSAR site providing great potential for tourism. The Lower Zambezi thus holds the prospect of a future of prosperity and sustainable socioeconomic development in a healthy environment. However, for this prospect to come true, the Government of Mozambique emphasized that a framework is needed within which the on-going developments are coordinated and monitored, providing clear boundary conditions to spatial planning, especially those related to social and environmental aspects. Without such a coordinating framework developments can create their own bottlenecks and 1 Hydrologically, the Lower Zambezi Basin consists of: all the districts in the province of Tete; the following districts in the province of Zambézia: Chinde, Inhassunge, Morrumbala, Nicoadala e Quelimane; the following districts in the province of Sofala: Caia, Chemba, Cheringoma, Maringué, Marromeu e Muanza; and the following districts in the province of Manica:Guru, Tambara and Macossa. Administratively (as defined in the Organic Statutes of the Zambezi Valley Development Agency), the Lower Zambezi Valley also includes the following districts in the province of Zambézia: Maganja da Costa, Milange, Mocuba and Namacurra; and further the Gorongosa district in the province of Sofala and the Bárue district in the province of Manica. Appendix 4 provides a map of the region. -5-

10 undesirable and irreversible social and environmental impacts. In light of the ongoing and rapid developments at project level in the lower Zambezi Basin 2, the development of the framework is urgent. 1.2 Mandate for this advice and scope After having consulted relevant sector ministries the Ministry for Coordination of Environmental Affairs (MICOA) proposed a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) process that would support the elaboration of a multi-sector development plan for the Lower Zambezi Basin. MICOA requested the Netherlands Commission for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) to assist in this endeavour (see Appendix 1 for the letter of request) and to field a scoping mission for this envisaged multi-sector plan. By means of this advice, the NCEA intends to contribute to both improving the information base of the planning / SEA process for the Lower Zambezi and its process structuring across relevant sectors, including: environment, mining, transport, energy, agriculture, fisheries and water. 1.3 Expert working group and scoping mission This advice is prepared by a working group of the NCEA. The group represents the NCEA and comprises expertise in the following disciplines: water management, irrigation, sociology, environmental economics and public administration and governance. The composition of the working group can be found in Appendix 2. For the preparation of this advice, the working group visited Mozambique from 1-9 July During this period, the working group visited stakeholders in Maputo, Tete and Quelimane. The programme of the mission is outlined in Appendix Planning and SEA, the approach taken by the NCEA This advice concerns an integrated planning and SEA process for a multi-sector development plan for the Lower Zambezi Basin. SEA practice has shown that an SEA is most effective if it is fully integrated into the plan-making process. In such a planning process, SEA can be seen as a process that guarantees that environmental and social aspects are fully taken into account. In the proposed planning process, the following elements are included in the SEA: scenario development; environmental and social impacts assessment of the developed scenarios; and (public) participation in the planning process. Because of the full integration of the planning and SEA processes, this advice makes no further distinction between the two and refers to the process as the planning/sea process. In order to integrate the SEA in the planning process, it is crucial that first a number of critical questions are answered relating to the planning process, the decisions to be made and the management and purpose of the SEA. These critical questions are: 2 An example is the proposal to transport coal over the Zambezi River. This proposal is currently subject to EIA, which MICOA has requested the NCEA to review (see NCEA advice nr 092, working title: EIA for Coal Transport Zambezi River). -6-

11 The planning process What are the key issues that the multi-sector plan needs to address? Or, in other words: what is the purpose of the multi-sector development plan? What is the current stage of the planning process: e.g. is it just starting, or is a draft plan already available? What decisions will be taken in the plan and by whom? Which are the decisions to be taken in the planning process and when will these be made? Who is/are the responsible agency(ies): i.e. the owner(s) or developer(s) of the planning process? What is the spatial and time horizon: what is the geographical definition of the plan and which implementation period will it consider? Methodology for agenda setting and impact assessment How to develop alternative sector scenarios? How do these sector scenarios interact with each other? What are the key environmental, social and economic impacts and how to assess these? Who should manage the planning process and how? What mechanisms should be in place to start the planning and SEA process? What is the budget and time-line of the plan process: how much time and budget is available for the SEA? Who will undertake the SEA and who will pay for it? This includes budgeting for public participation. These questions are addressed in Chapters 2-5 below. Chapter 2 gives an overview of the issues at stake in the Lower Zambezi Basin, including an analysis of all the sectors involved: their problems, opportunities and potential. It also addresses the need for, and current stage of the planning process. Chapter 3 describes how the planning/sea process can be phased and suggests which decisions are to be made by whom. This chapter also outlines preconditions for a successful implementation of this approach and gives preliminary recommendations on which planning issues require priority attention, based on evidence gained during the scoping mission. Chapter 4 suggests a methodology to prioritise decisions and define a general multi-sector agenda for the development of the Lower Zambezi Basin. It also provides an outline for the organisation and management of the process. Chapter 5 gives a more operational description of the methodology described in Chapter 4, giving concrete suggestions of institutions to be included and issues to be taken into account in the multi-sector agenda setting process. Please note that this advice is based on a relatively short visit (7 days) to Maputo, Tete and Quelimane. Although the NCEA feels that the most important stakeholders were interviewed and the most relevant documentation has been consulted, it was not possible to meet all main stakeholders within the time frame available. -7-

12 2. Analysis of the Situation 2.1 The potential of each sector, problems and opportunities As mentioned above, the Lower Zambezi Basin has a highly diversified social, economic and ecological potential. This potential is reflected through the various resources that enrich the basin. These include minerals, agriculture, water, energy, fisheries, and nature. Below, a short overview is given of the potential of each of these resources, their inter-linkages, their current and planned development, and main challenges faced. Minerals Recently, new mining operations have started, mainly concentrated around the city of Tete. These reserves constitute the largest known and untapped coal reserve of the world. It is estimated that they contain about 23 billion tonnes (23,000 Mt) of high quality metallurgic and thermal coal. Vale and Riversdale are the largest mining companies operating in the area and about to start exploiting coal in Many other companies, generally smaller, have secured exploration concessions for the area and expect to start exploiting in a few years time. The coal mining industry is driven by the rapid increase in coal demand in emerging markets such as China and India. Exports are expected to grow rapidly and reach a total output of 48 Mt coal per annum by 2017 and 100 Mt coal per annum by However, in order to reach this goal, large transportation challenges have to be overcome. Coal was expected to be transported over the 600 kilometers long Sena railway line to the port of Beira. However, the delay in the rehabilitation of this railway and the realization that the Sena line can only carry up to a maximum of 12Mt of coal per year if major improvements are made, forced mining companies to look for alternatives. Riversdale is exploring the possibilities to transport coal down the Zambezi River using barges, while Vale is exploring the railway route through Malawi to the port of Nacala. Other alternative railway routes are also currently being considered as options in the near future. On the one hand, coal exploitation can yield huge social and economic benefits for Mozambique. It is estimated that the coal export value can exceed US$ 10 billion per year. Furthermore, progress in the mining sector can directly and indirectly catalyse economic activities in other sectors as well, such as the development of small and medium enterprises. On the other hand, coal exploitation can have significant undesired negative impacts, such as environmental pollution, increase in income inequality, land use changes, forced resettlement of populations, etc. Agriculture About 80% of Mozambique s population depends on agriculture as its primary source of livelihood. The agricultural production in Mozambique, which includes the production of maize, cassava, sweet potatoes, rice, sugarcane, cotton, etc., is mainly rainfed and at subsistence level. Nonetheless, Mozambique has a high potential to boost agricultural -8-

13 production through irrigation. The Lower Zambezi Basin has an irrigation potential of about 1 million ha (nearly one third of the national irrigation potential). Only about 30,000 ha is presently equipped with irrigation infrastructure and about 20,000 ha is currently operational (mainly sugarcane and some rice). The river, including its tributaries, delta and lakes, is still a vast source of water that offers huge potential for irrigation. Various plans exist to significantly expand the irrigated area. If the water resources are properly managed, the Lower Zambezi Basin has the potential to become the food basket of Mozambique. The Government of Mozambique has recently established a 10-year Strategic Plan for Agricultural Development (PEDSA) with the aim to develop irrigation schemes and boost agricultural production in order to improve food security and rural income in a competitive and sustainable way. The PEDSA envisages doubling crop yields and increasing by 25% the area cultivated for basic food production by Investments in irrigation infrastructure, agricultural technologies and market based approaches as well as in enabling environments such as physical infrastructure, financing mechanisms and coordination are needed in order to achieve this goal. Water In comparison with neighbouring countries, Mozambique has considerable water resources. At the same time, the sustainability of Mozambique s water resources is highly vulnerable and insecure due to, among others, the country s dependence on upstream water management in its shared river basins, the hydrological and climate variability throughout the year, adverse climate change prospects and the historical underinvestment in water infrastructure. The Zambezi River provides important environmental goods and services to the region and is essential for local food security and hydropower production. As stated above, water availability is not of immediate concern in the Lower Zambezi Basin. However, it is of utmost importance that negative impacts of the planned investments in mining, agriculture and hydropower on the availability and quality of water resources in the basin are controlled and mitigated. Energy The Lower Zambezi Basin is a major source of electricity both for Mozambique and its neighbouring countries. This electricity mainly originates from the dam site of Cahora Bassa. There are plans to expand the dam s electricity generating capacity by installing new turbines on the left bank. Also, production gains can be made by coordinating dam operation with existing upstream hydropower facilities located in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Moreover, Mozambique intends to further increase electricity production through the construction of new reservoirs on the Lower Zambezi Basin, such as at Mpanda Nkuwa. These developments will further boost the Lower Zambezi Basin as a major source of renewable energy for the Southern African region. The existing dams have significantly altered the natural flow regime and the silt dynamics of the Lower Zambezi River over the last 35 years or more. The operation of the existing reservoirs for the sole purpose of production of electricity has diminished the natural -9-

14 variation of high and low flows during the wet and dry seasons, respectively. Reduced variation in river flows and changed silt loads directly influence the ecosystems on which people, nature and fisheries (freshwater and marine fisheries, including shrimp) depend. The proposed new reservoirs may have additional negative impacts; their precise nature needs to be ascertained by on-going and future EIAs. Fisheries The Lower Zambezi Basin provides a fisheries-based subsistence economy for thousands of people living along the river and in and along the coast of its delta. Artisanal shrimp fishing in the Sofala Bank caters for the local market, while semi-industrial and industrial shrimp fleets concentrate on the export markets. Coastal shrimps are still one of Mozambique s premier export products. The shrimp catch rate in the Sofala Bank has decreased drastically over the last two decades. In the late 1970s fishermen managed to catch around 90kg of shrimp per hour. This catch reduced to 40kg per hour in the mid 1980s and further decreased to about 30kg per hour in the early 1990s, a rate that remained constant up to now. Some experts are of the opinion that this decrease is directly influenced by the regulation of the river flows since the construction of electricity generating dams, both in Mozambique (Cahora Bassa) and upstream (in particular Kariba dam in Zambia/Zimbabwe). The Zambezi runoff is found to have a significant influence on the dynamics of the shelf, which, in turn, influences the availability and distribution of nutrients and the recruitment of shrimp. Nature The Zambezi Delta is the largest and most important wetland in Mozambique. The Marromeu Complex (668,000 ha), that comprises the south bank of the Delta, was designated in 2004 as the first Mozambican Wetland of International Importance under the RAMSAR Convention. The Marromeu Complex includes the Marromeu Buffalo Reserve, two forest reserves, four hunting concessions, large commercial agricultural lands and community lands. It supports important concentrations of African game (including buffalo, elephant, antelope, eland, leopard, lion, etc.) and several endangered and threatened species. The Zambezi Delta and especially the Marromeu site have, next to a high intrinsic value for nature, a high potential for tourism and a high socio-economic value for the local population (in terms of food security and socio-economic development). The wetland heavily depends on tidal patterns of the river and the sea and is, therefore, under pressure of upstream development of the Zambezi River basin, especially the construction of large hydropower dams on the river s mainstream and tributaries, new mining developments, large-scale irrigation development (e.g. for sugarcane and rice) and the unsustainable use of natural resources by local people. Inter-linkages The Spatial Development Initiatives (SDI) program provides a spatial framework that guides the current planning of governmental sector agencies. For the Lower Zambezi Basin the Beira and the Nacala SDIs are relevant. Evidently the multi-sector planning/sea process should link to the SDI planning process. -10-

15 2.2 Need for, and stage of the planning/sea process As discussed above, different resources offer different opportunities for socio-economic development in the Lower Zambezi Basin. The many sectors involved pose a complex challenge for the development of a planning/sea process for the region. Overall, there is a large economic potential for each individual sector. Moreover, many sectors are interlinked and depend on each other. Developments in one sector influence developments in another sector. This influence can be either beneficial (synergy), or negative (constrain each other s development and cause adverse impacts). They may even be conditional on each other; e.g. development of the transport sector is a condition for development of the mining sector. Balancing development of all sectors in the Lower Zambezi Basin is complex. In order to maximise benefit from the potential of the various sectors, a sound coordinated development plan across sectors is urgently needed, i.e., one that ensures that these developments benefit the local population and respect ecological values. Tradeoffs across the different sectors need to be made explicit, win-win scenarios need to be designed and potential for sustainable local livelihoods needs to be identified. -11-

16 3. The Planning/SEA process: Design and Coordination 3.1 Suggested planning/sea process design Developing all the sectors involved in the Lower Zambezi Basin is challenging. Given the different interests that sometimes may be in conflict and the lack of tradition in and proven tools for multi-sector planning, it would probably be over-ambitious for the involved ministries to jointly develop a multi-sector plan as a blueprint for the valley. It will be more realistic when the multi-sector development plan consists of coordinated individual planning/sea processes about key issues in the Basin. The challenge is to plan and coordinate these processes in such way that they serve the national interest, and not only the interest of one sector. This includes the decisions that government has to make about its role towards the private sector investment initiatives. What kind of investments will be Example: One of the issues that play a role in the development of the Lower Zambezi Basin is to solve the transport problem of the mines. Another is to manage the waters of the Zambezi whilst realizing the potential of other sectors. These issues can, to some extent, be considered in isolation from each other. Each issue involves specific sectors, has a specific urgency and a specific importance, and therefore needs a specific permitted? Which investments will be approach. However, there are also crosslinkages stimulated? Which conditions and across these issues. For example, it restrictions will the government set for is evident that water management of the these developments? What will the Zambezi affects its potential to serve as government build or do on its own behalf? To deal with the complexity, the NCEA suggests an approach to the planning/sea process that identifies issues, and deals with them one by one, whilst also maintaining an overview. To that end, the NCEA proposes two phases in the planning and assessment process, which are outlined below. Ideally, the phases are consecutive, but in practice they might overlap. Phase 1 A multi-sector agenda for the lower Zambezi basin The NCEA suggests to first develop an agenda for the Lower Zambezi Basin that identifies the key issues, sets priorities across them and indicates how the different responsible authorities should address each issue. The NCEA recommends this process to be convened by an agency that does not represent ANY sector interests and has the explicit mandate of the Government of Mozambique, a topic that is further elaborated in Section 3.2. The NCEA is of the opinion that under the right circumstances (e.g. sufficient budget and mandate) it should be possible to develop an agenda within 6 months. The NCEA recommends that the agenda to be developed consists of: Scenarios : possible futures for the development of sectors, including the environmental and social dimension of these sectors. Scenarios should be qualitative descriptions of what the future might look like. In other words, the potential of each sector and conditions for achieving that potential. -12-

17 Cross-sector issues : these are the possible synergies, bottlenecks and issues that might arise across sectors, derived from a consistency analysis wherein their possible futures and conditions are matched. Priorities and guidelines for the implementation plan for each of the most important issues, taking into account available implementation capacity. Such priorities and guidelines are based on the defined multi-sector agenda and should include the following directions: a. developments the government will consider to facilitate and allow; b. developments the government will certainly not allow; c. authorities responsible for implementation; e.g. for giving permission to private investments. Since most issues are cross-sectoral, it is to be expected that several authorities are jointly responsible; d. who else should be involved in the implementation, in particular which stakeholders should be involved; e. urgency of the issue and timing of the implementation. The actual formulation of each sector implementation plan takes place in phase 2 (see next). Phase 2 Implementation of the multi-sector agenda The second phase of the planning/sea process concerns the elaboration of the sector implementation plans on the basis of the priorities and guidelines set in phase 1. During phase 2 formal decisions are taken, binding for both government and private sector. However, it may be expected that the joint agenda developed in phase 1 will already outline those (private sector) developments that government intends to facilitate and under which conditions. This will enable the private sector to better plan its future activities. In phase 2 the relevant authorities for each sector plan as identified in phase 1 - jointly develop the sector plan. The NCEA recommends that for each sector plan the lead is assigned to the minister who is in the best position to implement the anticipated decision, in light of the formal mandate and/or the strongest implementation power. The lead ministry/authority for each sector implementation plan/sea process should develop its own approach within the boundaries set in the multi-sector agenda. The involved authorities should receive a mandate from the Council of Ministers to carry out the implementation plan. The multi-sector agenda can serve as basis of that mandate. During phase 2 new insights may require an adjustment of the agenda. Because of this, the NCEA recommends that the same agency mandated to convene phase 1, should remain in place and monitor phase 2. It can propose adjustments to the Council of Ministers where appropriate. This agency should also hold a mandate for monitoring the agenda implementation by sector authorities and for reporting the progress to the Council of Ministers. In this way coordination of phase 2 across sectors is enhanced. A first estimate is that, depending on favourable circumstances, preparation of the sector plans should also be possible within 6 months. -13-

18 In this advice the NCEA focuses on recommendations for the first phase of the planning/sea process, although some issues in the second phase are also discussed (see Section 4.2 and Appendix 6). The NCEA suggests that it makes more detailed recommendations on design, coordination and methodology for phase 2 of the suggested planning/sea process, once the Government of Mozambique has formally taken the decision to agree to the suggested design, coordination and methodology of phase Responsible agencies, SEA capacity and funding The process of developing a sustainable multi-sector development plan for the Zambezi catchment is an integrated process: planning and SEA are carried out simultaneously with the aim to generate a sustainable plan as the final product of this process. This integrated planning and SEA process should be convened by a neutral convening agency. It is crucially important that this convening agency has no interest of its own other than the interest that the plan is, indeed, made and accepted by all stakeholders. Its neutrality should be recognised by all involved sector authorities and its interventions in the planning/sea process, such as its progress reports to the Council of Ministers, should be accepted as balanced. At the highest level such a role is in many countries, and presumably also in Mozambique, assumed by the prime minister. Or, when too time consuming, the prime minister delegates this role to a convenor of her/his choice. The NCEA recommends that the prime minister decides on the convenor for this planning/sea process. In this advisory report, the NCEA will further refer to the mandated convenor of the planning/sea process as the mandated agency. Remind that this mandate does not include any powers and responsibilities other than convening the parties and helping them to jointly make progress with the integrated plan, as requested by the prime minister. The SEA component of the planning/sea process remains the full responsibility of MICOA. MICOA guides and overseas the proper integration of SEA elements in the agenda setting (phase 1) and in implementation planning (phase 2). To fulfil these tasks, the NCEA recommends that MICOA establishes a dedicated SEA expert team specifically for this complex SEA and, in the case that MICOA is not appointed as mandated agency, that this team works in close collaboration with the mandated agency. It recommends further that the entity(ies) that will fund the SEA provide sufficient budget for the functioning of the dedicated SEA expert team of MICOA. 3.3 Preconditions for successful application of the suggested approach 1. A network of motivated representatives of key organisations that share a common vision on the urgency of a sustainable development of the Lower Zambezi Basin. Within a highly complex situation like this, successful SEA depends on cooperation across key organisations. The baseline of this cooperation is that there should be a network of people with the common understanding that they have an opportunity to contribute to the sustainable economic, social, and environmental development of -14-

19 the Lower Zambezi Basin. They should share a vision about how they can jointly make that happen by not primarily looking for personal but for joint successes. This network should include both people at the highest level (the right sponsors, see below), and people at lower levels who have more time to spend on implementation. 2. This group should go through a joint thinking process. They should together go through the same steps of thinking as the ones undertaken in this NCEA advice. They should share ideas about the process and commit themselves to it. It is recommended to start this whole process with a small-scale seminar, where the NCEA s advice is discussed from all angles. 3. Need for the right sponsors at the highest level. It is the NCEA s experience that, if this group of people has the right sponsors (i.e. enabling leaders) at high level, they will have enough practical means to carry out the process. Sharing available information and listening and discussing with experts available in the group generally may be a sufficient basis for reaching conclusions underpinning decision making. 4. Budgets for specific studies. When issues are too complex to analyse sufficiently in phase 1 (agenda setting), it may be necessary to undertake a dedicated study to further analyse the issue with the help of experts. Such an issue should then be part of the agenda and implemented as any other issue in the implementation plan. It means that decisions that are binding to private actors are postponed by first conducting a joint study to clarify the nature of such decisions. 5. Available capacity. The planning/sea process will take up considerable time of civil servants. To some extent, this is part of their regular job, which they will now do together instead of separately. The main extra input of man hours is required for the organisation of the process: preparing cross-sectoral meetings, writing minutes, etc. For the agenda-setting process this task mainly is with the mandated agency. The NCEA expects that the civil service in Mozambique has sufficient capacity to undertake a meaningful planning/sea process, leading to an agenda and carrying out some of its sector implementation plans. However, some of its resources may have to be reallocated to these ends. 6. Transparency. The NCEA recommends that decisions and their justification, should be made publicly accessible. This will greatly enhance societal and private sector support to the developed agenda, which may prevent costly delays in its implementation. -15-

20 7. Support to the process. Whereas the NCEA has drafted this advice in such a way that Mozambique may follow it up without external support, it may be helpful to make use of experience from other countries in the organisation of this kind of processes, since these are new to Mozambique. A process coach could be assigned to the mandated agency or to ministries that need support. Also, experts (e.g. on transport, mining, environment, etc.) would be expected to be available within the civil service or in the non-governmental sector of Mozambique. If extensive studies are required, or knowledge has to be imported from abroad, external support may be helpful. -16-

21 4. Recommended methodology for phase Introduction In Chapter 3, the NCEA advises to follow a 2-phased approach in the planning and assessment process for the development of the Lower Zambezi Basin. Phase 1 refers to the development of a multi-sector agenda and phase 2 refers to the development of implementation plans for each sector. This Chapter completes the advice on the agenda setting phase by suggesting a methodology for the planning/sea process for Phase 1. Chapter 5 gives more detailed recommendations for a few individual steps of this methodology. Figure 1 below gives a schematic overview of the recommended approach in the planning and assessment process for the development of the Lower Zambezi Basin. In the left column, the planning/sea process of phase 1 and phase 2 are sketched. In phase 1, steps 1 to 10 lead to the development of a multi-sector agenda, which in turn forms a basis for the individual sector implementation plans in phase 2. The second column gives a schematic overview of the two main steps in the methodology of phase 1: the development of scenarios for the individual sectors, which in turn form the basis for the development of one common multisector scenario. In the most right column, the institutional bodies that need to be established and that are responsible for this process are displayed. Below, each of these elements are further detailed, with focus on phase 1. Figure 1: Schematic overview of the suggested planning and SEA approach for the Lower Zambezi Basin. PHASE 1 Multi-sector agenda Council of Ministers formalises mandate PHASE 2 Implementation MULTI SECTOR DEVELOPMENT PLAN & SEA Planning Methodology Responsibilities Steps 1-10 Define multi-sector agenda Step 5 Mining scenario Step 7 Environment & social Agriculture scenario Water scenario Other Common multi-sector scenario development & assessment Steering committee (SC) Inter-governmental advisory platform (IAP) Public private platform (PPP) Convenor: Mandated agency Secretariat function: Mandated agency / MICOA SC working group IAP working group Implementation plan Mining Formal Decision Implementation plan Agriculture Formal Decision Implementation plan Water Formal Decision Other Formal Decision PPP working group Convenor: Mandated agency Secretariat function: Mandated agency / MICOA -17-

22 4.2 Methodology for setting a multi-sector agenda The NCEA recommends that the development of the multi-sector agenda for the development of the Lower Zambezi Basin should consists of the following steps: 1. Provide a written mandate for the planning/sea process (Council of Ministers). 2. Establish institutional setup for the planning/sea process. 3. Set geographical boundaries, planning horizon, and describe the political and legal context. 4. Identify the business as usual scenario. 5. Develop future scenarios for each individual sector. 6. Perform a consistency analysis across the sector scenarios. 7. Develop one common multi-sector scenario, assess on environmental and social consequences and compare to business as usual scenario. 8. Organise quality assurance. 9. Define the multi-sector agenda. 10. Design phase 2: i.e. the planning/sea processes for the coordinated sector plans, that together will form the multi-sector development plan. These steps are further detailed below. Step 1: Council of Ministers provides a written mandate for the planning/sea process The NCEA understands that currently a formal, written mandate for a planning/sea process for a multi-sector development plan for the Lower Zambezi Basin does not exist. The NCEA recommends to the Council of Ministers to formulate such mandate, and detail in this mandate the following issues: an assignment to initiate the planning/sea process; guidelines, principles and boundaries (do s and don ts) for the development of the multi-sector planning agenda setting and for the multi-sector development plan; the agency that will be mandated to convene the planning/sea process (in short: the mandated agency ), as decided by the prime minister; reservation of the necessary financial resources for the planning/sea process. The NCEA recommends that the Council of Ministers makes use of the results of a multistakeholder workshop, in which government representatives of the following relevant sectors 3 participate: environment, mining, transport, energy, agriculture, water and fisheries. This workshop could address the following issues: 1. What is the current state of development in the lower Zambezi basin of the environment, mining, transport, energy, agriculture, water and fisheries sectors? 2. What are the main development opportunities for each of these sectors and what are the main development challenges? 3. What are the potential benefits of a more coordinated government approach toward the Lower Zambezi Valley? 3 These are the sectors mentioned in the official letter of invitation the NCEA has received from MICOA. -18-

23 Step 2: Establish institutional setup for the planning/sea process In order to achieve a successful planning/sea process, the NCEA recommends to establish a steering committee, an inter-governmental advisory platform and a public private platform. Knowledge brokers / experts should be available for studies and expert hearings when needed. Each of these bodies are outlined below, and their roles and responsibilities described. The mandated agency is recommended to convene the work and operation of these institutional bodies and to ensure continuity and coordination. Secretariat function is recommended to be provided by the mandated agency. If this agency is not MICOA, then the NCEA advises that both the mandated agency and MICOA provide secretariat functions to the different institutional bodies. Chapter 5 gives a more detailed description of these bodies, including recommendations on the governmental and non-governmental institutions that could be included in each of these bodies. Steering committee The NCEA recommends the steering committee to be the key owner of the agenda and composed of the government organisations that have the mandates and responsibilities with respect to the issues that the multi-sector plan needs to settle. They are represented by their political representatives. The steering committee determines the scope of the multi-sector agenda as a whole: sectors involved, geographical boundaries, time horizon etc. An important early task of the steering committee is to make sure that all involved authorities are committed to the proposed plan/sea process and to the use of its results in decisionmaking. In the case of insufficient commitment, there is no use in embarking on the process. Its operation The steering committee advises the Council of Ministers. This implies being high-level and small sized. This steering committee draws up its own assignment and approach, for which it asks acknowledgement from the Council of Ministers. The steering committee should decide on the following issues: Its mandate: On all issues where the steering committee finds consensus, it should be clear which steps it is then allowed to make without consulting the Council of Ministers. On all the issues where it does not find consensus, it should equally be clear how these issues will be brought forward to the Council of Ministers level to be resolved. The position, role and capabilities of the chairperson, i.e. the convenor. The NCEA advises that (s)he should be available on a full time basis and be accepted by all members of the steering committee as a neutral facilitator, having no partial interest in the decisions to be made. (S)he should be able to chair the inter-governmental advisory platform (see below) and any public meetings and hearings. If a decision is truly of the highest national importance, (s)he should preferably be appointed by the prime minister and report to him/her. This is a matter for the Council of Ministers to decide. The composition of an inter-governmental advisory platform (see below). The composition of a public private platform (see below). The mechanism for quality assurance. The steering committee may for example decide to ask for independent external reviews on the quality of the process and the information underlying decisions made in the course of the process. -19-