2012 A Year in Review. United States, Texas & Austin. Austin Economic Drivers Forecast: Austin MSA Closing Remarks

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "2012 A Year in Review. United States, Texas & Austin. Austin Economic Drivers Forecast: 2013-2014 Austin MSA Closing Remarks"

Ashlynn Butler
8 years ago
Views:

2 2012 A Year in Review United States, Texas & Austin Austin Economic Drivers Forecast: Austin MSA Closing Remarks

4 YEAR IN REVIEW United States (through Sept.) YTD New Population YTD Retail Sales Consumer Confidence Index YTD New Jobs Unemployment Rate YTD Exports Venture Capital Investment New Business Formation % Change (YTD) 2.0 million 0.6% $3.2 trillion 5.3% % (since Oct.) 1.3 million 1.0% 7.8% -12.9% $1.2 trillion 5.2% $19.8 billion -10.5% 139, % YTD Housing Starts YTD Foreclosures 583, % 1.8 million -12.0% 1 As of first quarter 2012 (March) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Conference Board, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Texas Comptroller, U.S. Census AE ANNUAL FORECAST 4

5 YEAR IN REVIEW Fragile European Economy- debt 90% of GDP Slowing Growth in China Low Business Confidence CEO Index - dropped by 11% from Q2 Pessimistic about the short-term outlook U.S. Deficit- $1.1 trillion (8.5% of GDP) Fiscal Cliff Source: The Conference Board, Congressional Budget Office, EUROSTAT, The White House

6 YEAR IN REVIEW U.S. Federal Deficit & Debt-to-GDP U.S. Federal Deficit ($ billions) U.S. Federal Debt as % of GDP $1.6 $1.4 $1.2 $1.0 $0.8 $0.6 $0.4 $0.2 $ $ % $ % $1.30 $ % 98.7% 2012 Estimate 104.8% $ % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

7 YEAR IN REVIEW Texas (through Sept.) YTD New Population 1 YTD Retail Sales 2 Avg. YTD New Jobs Unemployment Rate YTD Exports YTD Venture Capital Investment 2012 % Change (YTD) 520, % $193 billion 11.8% 200, % 6.3% -20.4% $197 billion 7.0% $717 million -43.3% YTD New Business Formation 3 YTD Housing Starts YTD Foreclosures 7, % 59, % 81, % 1 Based on the Department of State Health Services 2 As of second quarter 2012 (June) 3 As of first quarter 2012 (March) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Texas Comptroller, U.S. Census AE ANNUAL FORECAST 7

8 YEAR IN REVIEW SECTOR United States Texas Education & Health Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services Manufacturing Financial Activities Wholesale Trade Professional Services Transportation Construction Information Government -258,300-28, , ,100 11,300 31, ,300 46,300 83, , ,000-2,400-40,300 36,700 48,600 16,400 11,900 16,300 10,600 11,500 36,800 8,100 17,800 *Note: YTD Nonfarm employment through September. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics AE ANNUAL FORECAST 8

9 YEAR IN REVIEW AE ANNUAL FORECAST 9

10 YEAR IN REVIEW Austin MSA (Est. Year End) New Population Year end Retail Sales Avg. New Jobs Unemployment Rate YTD Venture Capital Investment YTD New Business Formation % Change (YTD) 65, $27.9 billion 7.7% 26, % 5.3% -21.6% $722 million 14.8% 1, % 1 As of first quarter 2012 (March) Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Texas Comptroller, U.S. Census

11 YEAR IN REVIEW Austin MSA, (Annual Avg.) Industry Leisure & Hospitality Government Educ. & Health Services Professional Services Financial Activities Transportation Wholesale Trade Information Manufacturing Retail Trade Construction Source: AngelouEconomics, Texas Workforce Commission ,100 New Jobs 1,900 1,500 2,100 2,300 3,300 5,300 6,700 Total Jobs (Growth) 26,300 (3.3%) Growth Rate 5.9% 0.4% 3.6% 5.8% 2.6% 3.0% 5.0% 2.5% 3.8% 1.8% 5.8%

12 YEAR IN REVIEW Austin vs. Benchmarks Location Austin Houston Dallas/Ft. Worth San Antonio U.S. % Change YTD 2.6% 2.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.0% New Jobs 20,800 74,400 48,700 12,700 1,300,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

13 YEAR IN REVIEW Rebates by City and County, 2012 (through Nov.) Payments % Change Bastrop County $6.0 M 14.7% Bastrop $4.4 M 18.4% Caldwell County $3.2 M 10.1% Lockhart $1.8 M 6.4% Hays County $28.1 M 6.7% San Marcos $19.7 M 6.7% Travis County $168.8 M 8.8% Austin $145.1 M 9.2% Pflugerville $6.2 M 13.1% Williamson County $96.1 M 3.7% Georgetown $14.7 M 6.4% Round Rock $58.1 M -0.1% Source: Texas Comptroller

14 YEAR IN REVIEW $300 $262.1 $255.7 $250 $200 $177.2 $150 $100 $50 $0 U.S. Texas Austin Source: Research 360

15 Austinpreneurship Tech Sector Real Estate Entertainment

16 AUSTIN S ECONOMIC DRIVERS $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Total Venture Capital Investment ($ millions) $0 $161.5 $344.4 $629.2 $722.2 Q4: $219.1 $ Initial Public Offerings Company $ Raised BazaarVoice $114M VOC Energy Trust $217M Chuy s $75M USA Compression Partners $75M Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers AE ANNUAL FORECAST 16

17 AUSTIN S ECONOMIC DRIVERS Number of Austin Jobs by Sector (in thousands) Manufacturing High Tech Supply Chain Information/IT Engineering, R&D, Lab Professional Services Total Tech Sector Job Growth 7,300 (5.0%) Source: Texas Workforce Commission AE ANNUAL FORECAST 17

18 AUSTIN S ECONOMIC DRIVERS Success of Austin Companies Company Revenue (previous 12 months) Quarterly Revenue Growth (year over year) Dell $58.7B % National Instruments $1.1B 13.70% Silicon Laboratories $537.5M 25.50% Cirrus Logic $525.8M 90.70% American Campus $444.0M 24.90% HomeAway $267.3M 19.60% SolarWinds $251.0M 32.90% BazaarVoice $133.3M 54.40% Source: Yahoo Finance AE ANNUAL FORECAST 18

19 AUSTIN S ECONOMIC DRIVERS OMMUTE SHED Apple, GM & Visa projects Samsung Expansion UT Medical School & Teaching Hospital New VA Hospital Source: Austin American Statesman AE ANNUAL FORECAST 19

20 AUSTIN S ECONOMIC DRIVERS Industry % Growth Semiconductor Chip Sales $315B $301B 4.7% PC Shipments 391M 367M 6.6% IT Spending $2.1T $2.0T 5.0% Smart devices will account for 70% of devices sold in 2012 The U.S. will gain 1.9 million new IT jobs in big data through 2015 Software industry will create more jobs than manufacturing Global interconnectivity (social media) & China Growth Opportunities Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, SchooX Sources: Gartner, International Data Corporation AE ANNUAL FORECAST 20

21 AUSTIN S ECONOMIC DRIVERS 5 Total Net Absorption (in millions of sq. ft.) 3 1 Retail Office Industrial (YTD) Source: CoStar AE ANNUAL FORECAST 21

22 AUSTIN S ECONOMIC DRIVERS Rental & Occupancy rates $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Industrial Office Retail $25.4 $24.8 $24.7 $24.7 $25.1 $19.4 $18.7 $18.1 $17.7 $18.1 $7.4 $6.9 $6.5 $6.6 $ (YTD) 95% 90% 85% 80% (YTD) Office Retail Industrial Source: CoStar AE ANNUAL FORECAST 22

23 AUSTIN S ECONOMIC DRIVERS Residential Market Months of Inventory 3.8 MLS Sales (Est. year end) 25,000 Avg. Home Price $261,000 Multi-Family Units / Under Construction 7,500 Multi-Family Occupancy Rate 94.2% Multi-Family Rental Rate/SF $1.05 Source: CoStar, O Connor & Associates, Texas A&M Real Estate Market Report AE ANNUAL FORECAST 23

24 AUSTIN S ECONOMIC DRIVERS OMMUTE SHED Austin City Limits South by Southwest Circuit of the Americas Moto GP F1 $483 million economic impact 117,000 fans attended AE ANNUAL FORECAST 24

26 AUSTIN S FORECAST Population (in millions) FORECAST 2,000 1,635 1,680 1,716 1,784 1,849 1,916 1,985 1,500 1, Source: AngelouEconomics AE ANNUAL FORECAST 26

27 AUSTIN S FORECAST Retail Sales (in billions) $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $ FORECAST % Growth 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Retail Sales Growth Rate Source: AngelouEconomics AE ANNUAL FORECAST 27

28 AUSTIN S FORECAST Market Office Industrial Retail Single Family Multi-Family Expected Absorption 3,350,000 sq. ft. 3,400,000 sq. ft. 2,400,000 sq. ft. 16,500 units 13,500 units Source: AngelouEconomics AE ANNUAL FORECAST 28

29 AUSTIN S FORECAST FORECAST New Jobs (in thousands) % Growth 3% 1% -1% % Employment Growth Rate Source: AngelouEconomics AE ANNUAL FORECAST 29

30 AUSTIN S FORECAST Industry New Jobs Growth Rate Leisure & Hospitality Government Education & Health Services Other Services Professional Services Financial Activities Transportation Wholesale Trade Information Manufacturing Retail Trade 1,400 1,200 1,100 2,600 2,600 3,900 3,500 4,700 Construction 5,600 7,600 10, % 14,200 Total Jobs (Growth) 58,900 (7.2%) 1.5% 8.1% 4.1% 11.5% 5.9% 8.8% 10.7% 5.3% 7.5% 4.1% 13.4% Source: AngelouEconomics AE ANNUAL FORECAST 30

31 Join AE University and access quarterly Forecast updates and much more! Visit to learn more. Good news! Due to popular demand, we ve extended our Quarterly Updates special pricing. $ 199 (regularly $249) To take advantage of this special, sign-up before January 15 th and SAVE $50! DISCOUNT CODE: AEForecast

32 What to Expect Data, charts, graphs, and graphics The most up-to-date data exclusive to Austin s unique and vibrant economy. Sections will include: Austin in Review Tech Sector Real Estate Austinprenuership Meaningful analysis of current economic data A comprehensive analysis will be performed by our qualified staff which consists of trained economists, experienced urban planners, and real estate experts The latest Austin trends Find out what s happening in Austin

33 THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSORS 8121 Bee Cave Rd., Suite 100 Austin, TX phone: fax: AE ANNUAL FORECAST 33

September 25, 2014 OPPORTUNITY AUSTIN

September 25, 2014 OPPORTUNITY AUSTIN 15 Public Sector Investors Austin Bastrop Buda Cedar Park Elgin Georgetown Hutto Jarrell Kyle Leander Lockhart Rollingwood Round Rock San Marcos Taylor 330 corporate