Investigating DSM solutions applicability in

Transcription

1 Investigating DSM solutions applicability in the GCC environment John Psarras, Alexandra Papadopoulou NTUA (Greece), Giorgos Anastasopoulos GRESCO (Greece), Afshin Afshari Masdar Institute Outline A. Introduction B. Current policy status C. Barriers for DSM programs in the GCC D. DSM in the GCC E. DSM policies in the spotlight F. Assessment and evaluation G.Opportunities of EU-GCC ENEF cooperation H. Conclusions 2 1

2 A. Introduction (1/3) Electricity Consumption & GHG per capita Trends GHG emission generation (tn per capita) Electricity consumption (MWh per capita) GCC EU CO2 emission generation (tn per capita) Electricity consumption (MWh per capita) Kuwait Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Oman Bahrain Source: IEA, 2011 trends Source: IEA, 2008 trends GHG emissions per capita in the GCC are at least 2 3 times more compared to the average EU 15; Electricity consumption per capita in the GCC is 50% increased compared to the average EU 15. Emission factor for electricity generation in the Middle East is almost double than EU 27 (0,677 kgrco 2 /kwh vs 0,352 kgrco 3 2 /kwh) A. Introduction (2/3) Electricity Consumption & GHG per GDP Trends GCC EU-15 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 GHG generation per GDP (Mtn CO2/ Billion 2000 USD) Electricity Consumption per GDP (TWh/ Billion 2000 USD) GHG generation per GDP (Mtn CO2/ Billion 2000 USD) Electricity Consumption per GDP (TWh/ Billion 2000 USD) Source: IEA, 2008 trends 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 Kuwait Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Oman Bahrain GHG emissions per GDP in the GCC are almost 4 times more compared to the average EU 15; Electricity consumption per GDP in the GCC is 2 times more compared to the average EU 15. Source: IEA, 2008 trends 4 2

3 A. Introduction (3/3) Electricity Demand Growth MW * Saudi Arabia demand supplied by SEC ERB (represents about 38% of total load in Saudi Arabia) Kuwait Saudi Arabia Bahrain Qatar UAE Oman Source: Al Mohaisen et al. (GCCIA), Evolution of the GCC power grid, 2006 Electricity demand growth in Oman and Qatar is projected to be more than doubled by 2028 compared to 2003, for Saudi Arabia there will be an increase of 230%, Bahrain and UAE will exceed three times the capacity of 2003 and Kuwait is expected to reach 350%. Current situation is expected to have been subdued due to the crisis; however no available data were identified. * 5 B. Current Policy Status (1/7) EU activities During the 90s, the emphasis by EU was mainly placed on RES, and less on energy efficiency. However, initial efforts and subsequent measures from that period in that direction touched upon labels & standards for household appliances and Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) for lighting. During the 00s, the Lisbon Strategy aimed at making Europe more dynamic and competitive to secure a prosperous, fair and environmentally sustainable future for all citizens. The energy efficiency directives adopted during this period were mainly focused on the following 4 pillars. Buildings Internal Electricity Market Energy end use efficiency Co-generation 6 3

4 B. Current Policy Status (2/7) Current key directives promoting energy efficiency include EU activities Directive 2005/32 EC on Eco design for energy using products and it s recast (Directive 2009/125/EC) with extension to energy related products. Ecodesign means the integration of environmental aspects into product design with the aim of improving the environmental performance of the product throughout its whole life cycle. Directive 2010/31/EU on the energy performance of buildings (EPBD). Nearly zero energy buildings by 2020, leading role for the public sector, minimum energy performance requirements, regular inspections of HVAC systems and independent control systems for energy performance certificates and inspection reports. Entry into force mid 2012, repelling standing Directive 2002/91/EC. 7 B. Current Policy Status (3/7) Other highly interesting features of the EPBD include EU activities Elimination of the 1000 m 2 threshold for existing buildings: minimum energy performance requirements for all existing buildings undergoing a major renovation representing more than 25 % of building surface or value; Member States to set minimum energy performance requirements for technical building systems (large ventilation, AC, heating, lighting, cooling, hot water) for new built and replacement, as well as renovation of building elements (roof, wall, etc.) if technically, functionally and economically feasible; Mandates the application of a cost optimal methodology for setting the minimum requirements for both the envelope and the technical systems, which introduces the global lifetime costs of buildings to shape their future energy performance requirements. 8 4

5 B. Current Policy Status (4/7) EU activities Directive, 2012/27/EU on energy efficiency. Main changes introduced include: Establishment of a long term strategy for mobilising investments in the renovation of the national building stock. Specification of annual renovation rates of the public buildings. Purchasing of only high energy efficiency products by public bodies. Energy distributors and retailers undertake the responsibility of achieving end use savings. Promotion of cogeneration and district heating and cooling for heating and cooling purposes. 9 B. Current Policy Status (5/7) GCC activities No harmonized policy in the GCC countries, changes occurring at the individual level. More specifically: United Arab Emirates: Abu Dhabi. Long term programme for the privatization of the electricity sector, Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 Estidama initiative on green building guidelines Pearl Rating System, a DSM strategy for electricity and water consumption within the Emirate is on the way. Dubai. Adoption of a sustainable development policy ( Dubai Strategic Plan 2015 ), introducing green building standards and water & energy conservation. UAE. New energy efficiency label and standard scheme has been launched in an effort to reduce country's environmental impact, introduced within 2010 by the Emirates Authority for Standardisation and Metrology. 10 5

6 B. Current Policy Status (6/7) GCC activities Kuwait: Ministry of Electricity and Water has developed a code of practice for energy conservation in buildings, placing emphasis on HVAC, since A revised version of the code was issued in Oman: Electricity companies trying to implement certain DSM programmes are facing difficulties, such as large subsidies offered for tertiary sectors tariffs. Qatar: Qatar Green Building Council (QGBC) with mission to educate and increase awareness and develop a set of green building best practice guidelines. Qatar Sustainable Energy and Water Utilisation Initiative is a project to improve desalination technologies, and promote public awareness of sustainable use of energy. National Vision 2030 on sustainable development is supported by Dohaland, introducing edge urban living concepts, aimed at delivering a sustainable development that is energy efficient, high in performance and low in wastage. 11 B. Current Policy Status (7/7) GCC activities Saudi Arabia: Ministry of Water and Electricity systematically promotes DSM, by founding the Energy Conservation and Awareness Department, imposing limits to the maximum power that can be delivered to electricity consumers, establishing DSM actions, and rationalizing the use of electricity. Saudi Arabian Standards Organization adopted several standards aiming to limit the penetration of in efficient electrical appliances, without however having the effective power to enforce these standards. Joint conduction by KACST and UN/DESA of the National Energy Efficiency Programme in Bahrain: A number of activities promoting energy conservation and DSM measures has been realized. These programmes are targeted towards thermal insulation, energy audit, power factor, CFLs, labels and energy standards, load control and awareness raising. 12 6

7 C. Barriers for DSM Programs in the GCC (1/3) Structural Barriers Very Low Energy Prices: they do not include the related external costs for environmental emissions; they are based on the local production cost and they did not include the opportunity cost to be sold in the international market; they are largely subsidized, as energy is used to promote social welfare and local development. Lack of labels and standards: Labels and standards are not being applied in the GCC, resulting in a market of electricity appliances filled with inefficient devices, as well as inefficient buildings. Limited access to capital: The current policies and activities in the region focus largely on RES, thus energy efficiency and DSM are lagging behind in attracting funds from governments and companies. Moreover, inexistent framework for Third Party Financing, Public/ Private Partnerships and Similar schemes. 13 C. Barriers for DSM Programs in the GCC (2/3) Market Barriers Lack of energy data to constitute baseline energy consumption Lack of regionally specific consistent measurement and verification protocols to overcome uncertainties in quantifying the benefits of energy efficiency investments No standard life cycle cost/carbon calculation methodology for the determination of cost optimal levels of energy efficiency. Lack of alternative technologies to chillers/ air conditioning, such as district cooling, during the summer harsh climate conditions. 14 7

8 C. Barriers for DSM Programs in the GCC (3/3) Behavioral Barriers Risk of energy efficiency investments: This risk is mainly financial, due to the low energy prices. Misplaced incentives: This refers to the different incentives of the engaged decision makers and users. For example, in the case of the construction companies or the building owners, the motives for the selection of the technologies to be used in the buildings construction are mainly their initial cost, while for the users (building tenants in this case), the motives are mainly the low operation cost and quality of service. Lack of awareness. 15 D. DSM in the GCC (1/3) DSM programs in the GCC at the end user level cannot follow the reasoning of the EU countries due to the low energy cost. In general, there are three ways to counterbalance the impact of low energy prices in the DSM programs: Direct subsidization of energy savings by the government. The very high costs for the utilities to build and operate new power plants in order to satisfy the increasing demand, might be the motive for these utilities to actively promote and subsidize the use of energy efficient equipment at the end consumers side. Enforcement of a minimum energy performance standard for existing buildings based on a standard method of calculating life cycle costs/emissions; Imposition of minimum energy savings targets on major end users and creation of a market for energy efficiency credits. 8

9 D. DSM in the GCC (2/3) Abu Dhabi Case Study Sectoral decomposition of energy use in Abu Dhabi End use decomposition of electricity in buildings in Abu Dhabi Hot Water Boilers 8% External consumption Exhaust 0% fans 2% Other internal 5% Lights 7% Emphasis of DSM programs should be placed on the building sector Other Common Equipment 12% Fan Coil Units 8% Chillers 58% Source: Demand Side Management Study, Abu Dhabi s Executive Affairs Authority, 2009 D. DSM in the GCC (3/3) Abu Dhabi Case Study The contribution of cooling loads in the electricity demand is depicted through a regression analysis realised by Masdar Institute. Based on the above, the Executive Affairs Authority of Abu Dhabi launched in 2012 the Comprehensive Cooling Program. 9

10 EU practice E. DSM Policies in the Spotlight (1/3) DSM and ENEF Measures Portugal; 1 Spain; 43 United Kingdom; 4 Sweden ; 18 Austria ; 4 Netherlands; 45 Denmark; 40 Source: IEA-DSM, Indeep Report Germany; 20 Ireland; 1 Italy; 7 DSM programmes per EU country France; 3 Challenges that the EU is faced with: Lack of ICT infrastructure. Advanced metering and control methods are largely absent from the electricity systems. Smart energy meters are gradually being installed; Lack of understanding DSM benefits, due to a lack of methodologies for the quantification of costs and benefits; DSM solutions tend to increase complexity of system operation compared to traditional ones; Inappropriate market structure and lack of incentives, contributing to the unbalanced experience of EU countries on DSM. E. DSM Policies in the Spotlight (2/3) EU practice Insulation of Envelope of Opaque Elements 4% Industrial Applications 5% Heat Pumps 5% General End use Technologies' Saving 5% Efficient Electric Motor Systems 7% High Performance Glazing 4% Boilers 3% High Performance Home Appliances 16% Building Envelope 2% High Efficiency Lighting Systems 29% Information to Users 20% Majority of the DSM programmes implemented so far are focused on lighting, awareness raising and home appliances due to: The generally lower cost. Appeal to the largest target audience, having significant reduction potential. Easier implementation. DSM programmes per technology Source: IEA-DSM, Indeep Report 10

11 Suggestion for the GCC E. DSM Policies in the Spotlight (3/3) O1. Implementation of labels and standards for home and office appliances. O2. Obligatory enforcement of the building codes Issuance of building certificates. O3. Subsidization of energy efficient appliances purchase by the utilities/government. O4. Tax reliefs for companies investing on energy efficiency solutions. O5. Targeted awareness raising campaigns to the different end consumer groups. O6. Mandatory annual maintenance for existing air conditioners and chillers. O7. Upgrade of the public lighting system. O8. Implementation of demonstrative projects in the governmental buildings. O9. Public Procurement Schemes. O10. Promotion of water conserving adapters such as low flow showerheads. Criteria F. Indicative Example (1/3) Criteria against which the performance of the DSM policies and measures under investigation will be evaluated, touch upon all aspects of sustainability, namely financial, environmental and security of supply: C1. Lifecycle cost. C2. Impact on load demand profile. C3. Impact on overall electricity consumption. C4. Contribution on CO 2 emissions reduction. C5. Improvement of provided services. C6. Creating incentives for private sector involvement. C7. Ease of measurement and verification of savings. 11

12 F. Indicative Example (2/3) Evaluation Method Decision Support Approach to assess the DSM programs on the selected set of criteria, taking also into consideration the specificities of the GCC Easily understood is the use of a five level linguistic scale (VL, L, M, H, VH) F. Indicative Example (3/3) Indicative Evaluation Matrix O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 O7 O8 O9 O10 Weights Performance C1 H M L VH H M VL H H M VL C2 VH M H H M VL VH M L VL L C3 H M VH H M L H M L VL L C4 L L H M L VL M L VL VL VL C5 M M H H L VL L M L L L C6 M H L L H VH VH M L VL H C7 H H M H L VL M VH M VL H 12

13 G. Opportunities of EU GCC ENEF cooperation (1/2) Cooperation areas of high interest Building retrofitting: o Use of cool materials in buildings, Building Energy Management Systems (BEMS), efficient lighting options. Labels and Standards: o Cooperation among standardization organizations for revising/ developing the Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS), especially as concerns AC; o Collaboration on AC for highly efficient appliances, which can cope with harsh climates (high temperature & moisture), as well as for AC maintenance and AC technicians certification; Support policy and legislation: o National energy centres for clean energy policy support; o Information platforms and development of standards; o Market based mechanisms to promote energy efficiency. G. Opportunities of EU GCC ENEF cooperation (1/2) Proposed Actions A specialized study for the promotion of ENEF in the GCC, analyzing the following three interrelated components: o The reform of the energy pricing system in the GCC. o The investigation of financing options to foster ENEF measures (customization of the TPF, ESCOs activation). o The implementation of DSM programs. Design of labels and standards for highly efficient appliances and ACs in the GCC and of accreditation and certification schemes of technicians in the GCC - presentation of the respective results in workshops. Joint research actions for the customization of RES and ENEF technologies to the GCC particularities (high temperature and moisture). 13

14 G. Conclusions Increasing energy demand in the GCC countries renders inevitable the setting down of apposite measures; The low energy price barrier for the end user identifies as a solution to the cost problem of the energy efficient investments at the demand side to be undertaken by the utilities/ government; Priority for the GCC is the selection of appropriate DSM policies; DSM programs should follow at a later stage; Experts opinion is required in order to assess the policies impact at the region. Prof. John Psarras john@epu.ntua.gr Tel: (+30)