The Nigerian Debt Capital Markets (DCM) Workshop

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1 The Nigerian Debt Capital Markets (DCM) Workshop Towards a Brighter Future 27 October 2015 Debt Capital Market Exploring Opportunities for the Nigerian Mortgage Industry By: Sonnie Ayere Chairman/ CEO Dunn Loren Merrifield Group

2 Contents 1 Overview of the Mortgage Market 2 Housing Market Challenges/Issues 8 Recent Developments in the Housing Market 9 Overview of the Nigerian Debt Capital Market 10 Connecting Mortgages to the Debt Capital Market 14 The NMRC Story 15 Deepening the Debt Capital Market 19 Case Studies: Cagamas & Jordan Mortgage Refinance Company (JMRC) 20 Creating an Enabling Environment for the Mortgage Market 21

3 Overview of the Mortgage Market 2 Nigerian Mortgage Sector Association/ Regulator Mortgage Bankers Association of Nigeria (MBAN) Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Providers of Finance Secondary Market Nigeria Mortgage Refinancing Company (NMRC) Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) Capital Market Primary Market Mortgage Banks Commercial Banks FHA Homes (Government Sponsored Institution) National Housing Fund (NHF) Private Sector Players Government Operators/Institutions Real Estate Development Private Developers UACN Property Development Company Lekki Gardens ARM Properties Grenadines Federal Housing Authority (FHA) Federal Ministry of Housing & Urban Development State Housing Corporations LSPDC OPIC etc Consumers Home Owners Source: KPMG Nigeria/ DLM 2015

4 Million of Units Overview of the Mortgage Market (cont d) 3 According to the World Bank, a study on the housing situation in Nigeria puts the country s housing deficit at c.17 million houses Current supply 21 Gap Current Housing demand 38 an estimated 17 million housing units are needed to fill the supply gap. About 700,000 units are needed every year to meet rapidly expanding demand -17 Assuming a conservative estimate of NGN5 Million per house, Nigeria needs c. NGN3.5 Trillion annually just to finance annual housing demand of 700,000 housing units

5 Overview of the Mortgage Market (cont d) 4 The Nigerian mortgage market has remained underdeveloped Industry Total Loans (N billion) In 2014, the mortgage loans size of the primary mortgage industry was less than 5% of the loans advanced by the Commercial Banks to the real estate sector. There was a decline in total industry loans of 53% to N62 billion in 2014 from N132 billion in 2013 largely due to the decline in related deposits and a slowing of the economy Source: CBN 2014 Statistical Bulletin, DLM Analysis

6 Overview of the Mortgage Market (cont d) 5 The Nigerian mortgage market has remained underdeveloped Industry Total Assets (N billion) While growth has been relatively stable in the previous years, total industry assets are still less than a Tier III Commercial Bank s assets The decline in total assets in 2014 was also due to the significant fall in the total loans originated by the mortgage banks Source: CBN 2014 Statistical Bulletin, DLM Analysis

7 Overview of the Mortgage Market (cont d) 6 The Nigerian mortgage market has remained underdeveloped Industry Total Deposits (N billion) Deposits have remained the second largest source of financing for the mortgage banks and represent over 45% of total liabilities Source: CBN 2014 Statistical Bulletin, DLM Analysis

8 Overview of the Mortgage Market (cont d) 7 The Nigerian mortgage market has remained underdeveloped Mortgage Loans to Total Assets Mortgage Loans Total Assets Mortgage Loan to Total Assets % 36% 36% 35% 35% % % % 37% 36% 35% 34% 33% 32% 31% 30% Mortgage loans to total assets averaged 35% in the last seven (7) years which falls below the current regulatory requirement of 50% Source: CBN 2014 Statistical Bulletin, DLM Analysis

9 Housing Market Challenges 8 1 Land Registration & Titling It is expected that the implementation of the reduction in land registration fees (Consent fees (from 6% to 1.5%), Capital Gains tax (from 2% to 0.5%), Stamp Duty (from 2% to 0.5%) and Registration fees (from 3% to 0.5%)) in Lagos and expect that key residential hubs (e.g. Abuja) will follow suit 2 Housing Construction Costs The use of alternative building technologies is expected to reduce the high costs of conventional building techniques 3 4 Protracted Foreclosure Process The Model Mortgage and Foreclosure Law currently being discussed with several states by NRMC, when implemented will reform the existing mortgage regulatory framework and establish a more efficient foreclosure process. Access to Finance NMRC will continue to provide long-term funds to member mortgage lending institutions thus addressing the long term funding needs of the mortgage banks

10 Recent Developments in the Housing Market 9 Different reforms have been initiated by key stakeholders within the housing and mortgage market. Some of these include: CBN Mortgage Banking Reforms CBN issued revised guidelines for PMBs PMBs reduced from 84 to 40 as at September PENCOM guideline up to 25% of RSA towards equity Nigeria Mortgage Refinance Company (NMRC) 4 PENCOM Reforms 2 The NHFP was launched in Q Land and legal framework Access to affordable housing finance Housing development and construction Nigeria Housing Finance Programme 3 NMRC was established under the NHFP 4 NMRC has developed an industry Uniform Underwriting Standard

11 Overview of the Nigerian Debt Capital Market 10 Highlights of the Nigerian Debt Capital Market ACTUAL FGN YIELD AS AT OCTOBER 19, Yields: 16-Oct -14 Yields: 16-Oct -15 1m 3m 6m 12m 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 20yr Following a restructuring of the domestic debt markets, the Debt Management Office (DMO), resumed the issuance of longer tenored bonds in 2003 which was aimed at resuscitating the bond market. The first set of bonds issued by the DMO were 3yr N30bn with a coupon of 17.75%, a 5-yr N40bn with a coupon of 18.25%, 7-yr (T-bill+3.00%), 10-yr (T-bill+3.75%) Source: DMO, NBS, DLM Research

12 Overview of the Nigerian Debt Capital Market (cont d) 11 Highlights of the Nigerian Debt Capital Market (cont d) Market Indicators FGN Bonds Market Cap., N'bn 5, FGN Bonds Market Cap., $'bn Domestic Debt Stock, N'bn 8, Domestic Debt Stock, $'bn External Debt, N'bn 2, External Debt, $'bn MPR (%) Inflation (%) 9.40 At present, the total issue size of FGN bonds is N5.26 trillion with a market capitalisation of c. N5.54 trillion with current yields of 12.6% (2yr), 13.19% (4yrs), 13.39% (5yr), 13.21% (7yr), 13.88% (10yr) and 15.52% (15yr) respectively as at Oct, 2015 GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.35 Source: DMO, NBS, DLM Research

13 Overview of the Nigerian Debt Capital Market (cont d) 12 Recent Trends in the Nigerian Debt Capital Market Historical FGN Bond Yields Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Source: DMO, DLM Research

14 Overview of the Nigerian Debt Capital Market (cont d) 13 Recent Trends in the Nigerian Debt Capital Market (cont d) The success of the FGN Bonds created an enabling environment for the issuance of several sub-sovereign bonds e.g. Lagos, Imo, Niger, Bayelsa, Ebonyi, Kaduna, Edo, Benue, Osun, Ondo, Gombe, Ekiti and Delta States The domestic corporate bond market has also recorded a reasonable level of growth over the past 5 years with about sixteen (16) corporate bonds issued till date namely, Lafarge, Flour Mills, GTB, UPDC, Chellarams, Dana Group, Tower Group, Crusader, FSDH, La Casera, UBA, C & I Leasing, NAHCO, Stanbic, Fidelity Bank Plc and Nigerian Mortgage Refinance Company all in the market and currently account for a total size of c. N billion

15 N'' Trillions Connecting Mortgages to the Debt Capital Market 14 Unlike most African Emerging Economies, Nigeria has a more developed Debt Capital Market which could be leveraged on to create new asset classes for long term investors The current economic situation poses a challenge to mortgage lending institutions in raising long-term funding with existing source of funding limiting their exposure to long term borrowings, hence the need for an enabling environment within the Debt Capital Market to foster growth in the mortgage market Nigeria's Fixed Income Market Size Key Potential Investors Total Pension Assets Total Banking Assets c. N5.0 trillion N29.4 trillion Total Insurance Assets N0.57 trillion Total Assets (Potentially) c. N35 trillion With the Potential Pool of investors grossing about thirty five trillion naira, there is an opportunity to tap from the Fixed Income Markets to unlock the Nigerian Mortgage Industry, albeit subject to different interest rate policies

16 Connecting Mortgages to the Debt Capital Market The NMRC Story 15 NMRC at a Glance 24 June 2013 Incorporation Date 16 Jan Launch Date 18 Feb License Issuance Date Regulators Tier 1 Capital N7.05 Billion Tier 2 Capital (IDA Loan) US$250 Million CBN SEC Issuer Rating (GCR) BBB+ Number of Tier 1 Equity Investors 22 Private Sector Shareholding 60% Mortgage Bank of the Year 2014

17 Connecting Mortgages to the Debt Capital Market The NMRC Story (cont d) 16 NMRC serves to connect the debt capital market to the mortgage market by issuing long term notes to investors thereby providing long tenor mortgages at affordable rates Refinance NMRC On lending at affordable rate; provide liquidity flexibility Participating Mortgage Lenders Securitized Lending FGN Guarantee Issue Aaa rated Bonds Longer tenor funds at FGN rates Bond Proceeds Grant Eligible Mortgage Loans Provide long tenor mortgage at affordable rates Assign Collateral and Repay Principal & Interest Bond Investors Borrowers NMRC acts as a simple financial intermediary between mortgage lenders and the capital markets

18 Connecting Mortgages to the Debt Capital Market The NMRC Story (cont d) 17 NMRC Series 1 Bonds N8,000,000, % Series 1 Fixed Rate Bonds Duly July 29, 2030 Type of Security Issue Rating (GCR) A 15-year pay-through bond Issue Price Use of Proceeds Refinance c. N7.7 billion Programme Limit Bond Subscription Levels AAA(NG) N140bn At par 100% 105.5% Credit Enhancement The FGN Guarantee Secured on April 30, Investor Mix Insurance Companies 16.8% Others 4.9% Listing FMDQ OTC Plc 78.3% Pension Fund Administrators Source: DLM Advisory Partners

19 Percentage % Connecting Mortgages to the Debt Capital Market The NMRC Story (cont d) 18 While the GDP rebasing exercise reduced Nigeria s Mortgage Debt to GDP ratio, the upside growth potential has never been more pronounced than it is today PRE-NMRC POST-NMRC s N 8 bn Series 1 Issuance 0.35% Mortgage Debt-to-GDP ratio (2011) % Mortgage Debt-to-GDP ratio (2015) NMRC s first bond issue was used to refinance legacy loans which is expected to have a multiplier effect on mortgage origination subsequently POST-NMRC s N 140 bn Programme 0.56% Mortgage Debt-to-GDP (2017) ratio (2017E) This ratio is derived with a projection of 2.35% GDP growth rate for 2017 GDP figure Nigeria s Mortgage loans to GDP ratio is abysmally low compared to other countries, however this clearly highlights the potential capitalisation of the housing market and the opportunity that exist for growth

20 Connecting Mortgages to the Debt Capital Market (DCM) Deepening DCM 19 With an efficient primary mortgage market comes a strong catalytic effect on the Debt Capital Market as well as the Nigerian Economy as a whole Ratio Value (N Bn) * Average No. of Homes Growth of Debt Capital Market Mortgage Loan-to-GDP ratio, % ,000 Mortgage Loan-to-GDP ratio, 2017 (Post-NMRC) 0.56% ,900 5% By Growing Mortgage Loan-to-GDP to 5% 5% 4,300* 430, % By Growing Mortgage Loan-to-GDP to 10% 10% 8,600* 430, % * DLM s Estimates with GDP growth rate of 2.35% between 2015 and 2017 With an efficient primary mortgage market, more players and finance institutions will be encouraged in creating mortgages; which will ultimately make the capital market more robust * This assumes that an average home cost an estimate of N10 million each

21 Case Studies: Cagamas & Jordan Mortgage Refinance Company (JMRC) 20 A brief look at Cagamas and JMRC Incorporation Established in Established in Objectives Set up to promote the broader spread of house ownership and growth of the secondary mortgage market. Set up to develop and improve the housing finance market and promote and develop the capital market by issuing corporate bonds in the local capital market Total mortgages refinanced RM111 billion (US$25.3 billion) JD842 million (US$1.2billion) Total bond issuance as at 2014 Mortgage debt to GDP ratio Market capitalization of debt capital market. Total bonds outstanding balance RM295.1 billion (US$67.3 billion) JD982 million (US$1.4bn) 32% 11% RM1.1 trillion (US$251.1 billion) JD11.6 billion (US$16.5billion) RM10.6 billion (US$2.4 billion) JD145.5 million (US$204.2million) 1 Driven largely by the frequent debt securities issuances of Cagamas, the Malaysian bond market grew rapidly tripling between 2000 and JMRC helped to more than double loan maturities and has had a catalytic effect on the mortgage market with the mortgage debt-to-gdp ratio growing to more than 11% from below 1%

22 Creating an Enabling Environment for the Mortgage Market 21 To create an enabling environment for the Mortgage Market, there is an imperative need to address the following points State Government Commitments - Delegation of Governors Consent with a maximum time to obtain consent - Replacement of Consent Fees with flat fees where applicable rather than fees as a % of property value - Reduce or merge the number of steps to register a property - Digitise Land Registries Expected Impact Max of 5 steps to register Max time of 30 days Max cost of 5% of property value Enabling environment for NMRC to Refinance Mortgages

23 Creating an Enabling Environment for the Mortgage Market (cont d) 22 To create an enabling environment for the Mortgage Market, there is an imperative need to address the following points State Government Commitments - Creation of specialized Court Division to deal with mortgage foreclosures - Adoption of model mortgage and foreclosure law - Where needed training for specialist circuit of judges able to deal with mortgage enforcement Expected Impact Max of 6 months to foreclose on a property Max cost of 10% of property value in total costs Enabling environment for NMRC to Refinance Mortgages

24 Creating an Enabling Environment for the Mortgage Market (cont d) 23 To create an enabling environment for the Mortgage Market, there is an imperative need to address the following points State Government Commitments - Transparent provision of land under a PPP arrangement to developers for the purpose of affordable housing development by States - Establishment of a clear and transparent pricing methodology for the land and allocation process - Provision of basic services on the land - Fast track approval process for housing construction permits - Where applicable some waivers on fees and State taxes associated with housing construction - Bring back well-funded Technical Colleges Expected Impact Large scale production of housing at affordable prices Enabling environment for NMRC to Refinance Mortgages Better Buildings

25 THANK YOU!

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